538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race

538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race | FiveThirtyEight

Рет қаралды 24,685

Ай бұрын

The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider.
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Пікірлер: 83

@carlkim2577 Ай бұрын

The awkward cringe intros are now a trademark of this show haha

@BrubandJfowl Ай бұрын

i LIVE for them

@DrJonathanRoss Ай бұрын

Good stuff!

@milesm2 Ай бұрын

It’s a cold open

@milesm2 Ай бұрын

@@penguinswithwifi for a non scripted podcast, it’s amazing !! Your loss Mr. Boring man

@penguinswithwifi Ай бұрын

@@milesm2 don’t assume my gender, please 🙏🏿

@0o0ification Ай бұрын

Elliot does a great job of carrying the torch. Those folks tuning in for “what does Nate think” will be well supported during this election cycle. Getting the hot takes on the 1% 😄😉

@zachseatdriver9671 Ай бұрын

I saw this guests face and I was deeply confused for a second because I thought it was footage of me. Like I've never seen a person look so similar to myself and it's making me kind of uncomfortable

@AySz88 Ай бұрын

Even better: he's not just a guest, but 538's new main model builder! Hope you get more used to his face soon.

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

I'm glad you talked about polls that try to overcompensate for 2016 by oversampling Republican or Trump leaning voters to make up for previous polling error. I think that is still happening in some polls today.

@0o0ification Ай бұрын

“Bayesian multi level dynamic linear model, which is fit using … Markov Chain Monte Carlo” (MCMC) 31:07

@JDHutchison Ай бұрын

I feel like polling this time around is a lot more volatile. We are running into multiple factors that have not been the case in the last few decades. - both candidates are well known and both have served as President - both candidates are historically low in “likability” or approval - there are significant outside pressures to the campaigns - particularly with Trump. An issue that energizes people in both directions. I love the talk about polling. I’ll be watching. But I think it’s really hard to take as much to the bank at this point. I get the feeling that things are going to get wild in the next six months.

@nerfherder6166 Ай бұрын

You think it's more volatile than that time we held an election during a global pandemic? I agree that there are a lot of factors stirring the pot, but the flip side is that at least one of these guys has been on the ticket in every election since hurricane Katrina. They are kind of known entities. That has to offer some measure of stability. I think that's enough counter-balance to the points you made to suggest that the 2020 election was less predictable than this one.

@JDHutchison Ай бұрын

@@nerfherder6166 that’s why I added the distinction that they’ve both served at president. Knowing about a candidate and knowing how they perform in the actual office are very different things. That’s a very different factor than any of us have seen in our lifetimes. And I’d agree that 2020 added a lot of complexity. But I’d argue is was more logistical complexity than anything else.

@jakeleisure8326 Ай бұрын

Polling isn't about taking anything to the bank. If you're looking at polls this far out and expecting them to predict the winner...You're really missing the forest for the trees, especially in this highly polarized environment

@suburbanhousewife40 Ай бұрын

Galen and Elliott always reveal fresh analysis of data. Thank you.

@justinsandberg6998 Ай бұрын

Guys, you need to fix your audio equipment! The constant spike in volume when one of you starts a lot of your sentences is going to blow my eardrums. Otherwise, good content.

@VirginiaBronson Ай бұрын

This was excellent!! Thank you guys

@genevaughan1456 Ай бұрын

Will y'all have the electoral map that we can play with this year?

@CoolDogsify Ай бұрын

BRING BACK THE FULL VIDEOS ON KZfaq!!! Screw Apple!!!!

@warlordgrandadmiralthrawn1096 Ай бұрын

I was so excited to see the averages this morning! I check 538 and RCP for new polls every day. I was very surprised to see Biden leading Wisconsin, particularly when Pennsylvania is red on your average. Other poll aggregators have that the other way around. Hopefully the full forecast comes soon! I’ve been hoping for that for months.

@WhiskersInc Ай бұрын

I finished Elliott's book last week - it's incredible. Every 538 fanatic needs to read it!

@fighterck6241 Ай бұрын

I miss the old 538 weighted models that offered aspects other than steictly polling to consider.

@Mac_an_Mheiriceanaigh Ай бұрын

Very, very, weird to hear so much more of the outro music track than ever before.

@aarondavid826 Ай бұрын

Young George Lucas

@michyHV Ай бұрын

Thanks for the deep dive and interesting analysis.

@jameslooker4791 Ай бұрын

I wish Florida was in play so I could justify using my GFs address in Tampa to register to vote...

@lichtgrau42 Ай бұрын

we live in a society

@SwarmerBees Ай бұрын

I am most curious about the assumptions made about most likely voters in these models. What are the strong arguments that these assumptions could be seriously off for this particular election cycle? EG, tsunami of women coming out voting due to the abortion issue.

@duane_313 Ай бұрын

Bearded glasses boy is cute 😙

@markschannon8797 Ай бұрын

Given the margins of error that you describe, there's really no difference between Trump & Biden. Describing a 5% difference in a state with a 5% margin of error, there's no way to state which one is leading. Or am I missing something?

@clarkkent7049 Ай бұрын

The best way to put it is if there is a 5 point MOE and trump is up 2 then the MOE is between Biden+3 and trump +7 so while Biden can still win it’s more likely trump wins

@rushtonsedberry4734 Ай бұрын

He had a relationship with the lady. I am not a billionaire and will share resources with old lovers. He should have simply given her the funds cordially.

@grapejuicehorror Ай бұрын

Finally, rcp is way to unintuitive to navigate.

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

I used to read RCP analysis when people like Jay Cost were doing it. They had some pretty insightful information about how polling is done back in the day.

@immortalblue7315 Ай бұрын

Why would it be 10 million dollars I don't get paid anything for door knocking

@simonbuckingham2627 Ай бұрын

Best cold open ever

@daraorourke5798 Ай бұрын

No Galen ...it is just the United States 😉

@ChicagoWheels Ай бұрын

Who R Da Geeks😂

@immortalblue7315 Ай бұрын

These guys never explain why Trump's trials are not sinking his polls. Or his comments about NFL athletes protesting child murder. That they should leave the USA. 538 completely ignores that

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

I think we have a pretty good idea of why. His fanbase is very loyal, and most of them have decided that they are sticking with Trump no matter what he does or says or even if he is convicted of a crime. We've seen that over the last decade. No matter what he does, even when his supporters get mad at him they always go back and decide to ignore it. But I don't know that you can say much new about that in terms of how that affects polling. The more interesting thing is what those Nikki Haley voters will do. But again, not sure that shows up in the polling right now.

@DingleDangle66 Ай бұрын

Because they aren’t sinking his polls.

@MichaelJohnson-vi6eh Ай бұрын

Only result of the legal stuff will be $$$ people will not feel like donating money if these cases continue to go badly. He will get votes but other republicans will not get donations. Purple areas might go Biden.

@micdom43 Ай бұрын

@DingleDangle66true

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

@@DingleDangle66 : That's not a why. That's restating the original premise, that the trials aren't "sinking his polls." Like I said earlier, it's because his fanbase is okay with everything Trump does no matter what.

@micdom43 Ай бұрын

You have to reveal facts or they exercise first amendment

@ChicagoWheels Ай бұрын

Weed Taxes Are Ridiculously High and I can't afford Booze on My cheap Ass SS payments. Send me another Stimulus check for at Least 10K Biden sign My check🎉

@OmniArmstrong Ай бұрын

Many have noticed the statistical and... epistemological similarity between astronomy and social sciences. both have unknowable populations, observation biases, and unrepresentative samples that all require correction. The difference that the physical scientists don't understand is that the necessary information is fundamentally unavailable--it's not that social scientists aren't creative and inventive enough to find methodology and data needed to answer the questions, it's that the specific variables we KNOW we must have to answer the question cannot be observed, due either to fundamental physical, ethical, or social limitations. That a society in which it was even possible to collect the data required... would not be a society where we want to live.

@ThorntonMeloni Ай бұрын

This is the soy latte of polling Podcasts!

@SolaceEasy Ай бұрын

The USA permits electing a felon, but may not allow the felon to vote for themselves.

@michaelh.sanders2388 Ай бұрын

The trend os toward Biden. Trump may have peaked in March. The Senate races will decide which presidential candidate carries the swing states.

@DingleDangle66 Ай бұрын

The trend isn’t towards Biden, but ok 😂

@DingleDangle66 Ай бұрын

The trend isn’t towards Biden, but ok 😂

@MyPuffinOpinion Ай бұрын

538 is so off from reality

@Thex-W.I.T.C.H.-xMaster Ай бұрын

Democrats

@alhansell Ай бұрын

You guys are really bad at podcasts

@markaisenberg6641 Ай бұрын

A 2% movement is significant but a 5% lead is insignificant. Got it. These people are a total embarrassment.

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

Trends are significant, and in the long run that 5% lead can evaporate. In other words, polls this early are not predictive of the eventual results. That's what I think they were suggesting. If someone has a 5% lead a week from election day, that 2% movement for the other side might not be as significant because there's less time for that trend to be fully realized. Maybe I'm misinterpreting that, but that makes sense to me.

@markaisenberg6641 Ай бұрын

@@bryanismyname7583 they aren’t acting in good faith. They’re arguing that a 5% lead is less than the noise, ie smaller than the error bar. An analogy would be for me to try to measure the size of an atom with a ruler. But, he’s claiming to be able to measure a movement of smaller than the lead. The only reason why they’re making these claims is because both favor the Democrat. They’re paid propagandists.

@luis_sa78 Ай бұрын

@@markaisenberg6641 "They’re paid propagandists". Prove it

@Mac_an_Mheiriceanaigh Ай бұрын

I don't think they were saying that a 5% lead is not significant. I think they were saying that a 5% lead doesn't tell us about what the final result will be since it's too early. I think it is the same with the 2% movement - it is significant, but also not informative about what the final result will be. The reason they were talking about significant vs. insignificant for the 2% movement is because it's not as obvious whether it is actual significant, whereas the 5% lead it is obvious. That was my takeaway, but I can't say if it's right.

@markaisenberg6641 Ай бұрын

@@Mac_an_Mheiriceanaigh3 new polls just came out. CNN: Trump +6 M. Consult: Even Harris: Trump +4 So the trend just DRAMATICALLY flipped back towards Trump. Now they’ll argue that the trend is too small to measure.

@airbloomamplifiers Ай бұрын

Why? No one thinks what you post has ANY meaning.

@bmeht Ай бұрын

Polling is useless.

@bryanismyname7583 Ай бұрын

It's not useless, because it does gauge public opinion in a moment of time. It is only useless if you are trying to get an answer about who will win an election. As they say in the podcast video, these are not forecasts.