97% Of Catan Players Choose Wrong

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97% Of Catan Players Choose Wrong

Рет қаралды 20,931

2 жыл бұрын

💡 If you took a second to appreciate the odds of getting resources from settlements, you might completely reconsider how you place. This video is a elaborate intervention to prevent players from betting on the wrong pips.
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Пікірлер: 29

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

The odds of you subscribing are really good.

@osomuerte1 2 жыл бұрын

The roll demo is interesting since it is pretty far from a normal distribution, specifically the low 7s. And 2 had the same probability as 12, but 2 rolled motions times. I haven't seen many people grabbing a 12 as if it will produce. It's better thana desert hex or a coast (not necessarily better than a port) and gets that resource if it's your second settlement, so it's not without value. And no one is going to block a 12. You can't count on a 12 for production, but it sure is fun when it hits a few times.

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the comment, and yeah you're right, it isn't a normal distribution. Only 60 something rolls as the sample size. Yeah nobody truly goes for 12, but it's ultimately a reminder that your number choices do matter more than you may give it credit for. (not you specifically, you know what I mean lol)

@Sebby_Nineteen 2 жыл бұрын

That pan you are using looks like you are about to melt those dice.

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

It's a japanese rice bowl.. I mean.. dice tray

@Jo24Park 2 жыл бұрын

I didn't like the video because it only had content I already know. Still happy to have stumbled across it. Really well made content!

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

I guess you are the 3% lol. Joking aside though, I still have friends who don't respect the statistical probabilities and then wonder why they keep losing.

@krozimotskikamionizure6332 8 ай бұрын

As a professional poker player and a casual Settlers of Catan player with an ELO of 1300, I can tell you that mathematics doesn't really have much to do with poker; it's an enduring misconception for beginners. Poker is about understanding your opponent's behavior and playing your hand accordingly. If you ever see two cards of the same suit on the flop and two more of the same suit come out, or you're missing one card for a flush, you know you're in a 50/50 situation. Similarly, if you lack one card for a straight, you're aware that you're not in a favorable position and need to play the hand differently. That's simple mathematics. Mathematical insights in poker mainly assist those who analyze statistical data to determine the long-term viability of certain playing styles, and so on..

@KenPlaysCatan 8 ай бұрын

Really nice to hear these kinds of insights. Thank you.

@namv6431 11 күн бұрын

I am not a pro poker player, but I would consider myself above the average person. Reading others is definitely more important than being good at calculating odds. Especially short term. However, a better player can always lose to someone with better luck. However, long term, playing hands with higher probability of winning, will eventually be favorable. Catan is not a long term game. With my limited experience of catan, understanding the probability of craps is much closer. Seven out, is the robber. You can go on a long roll with never hitting a 7, but eventually, every roll in craps will eventually end because seven will inevitably be rolled. Dice (or roulette) always comes down to sample size.

@greendino97 2 жыл бұрын

Really enjoyed this video. Balancing resource production or atleast balancing the odds of them is a nice concept I will try to use in future games. Something else that stood out to me was the defensive usage of the knight card. I tended to play mine as fast as possible to lock down largest army. But that leads to inefficient robber movement and generates more heat, which makes trading more difficult, atleast in my meta. I will be remembering some of these concepts next time catan makes it to the table!

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

Solid takeaways! Catan definitely gets more fun the more you understand it how to approach it. Hope you get to check out some of the other Catan videos for more of these kinds of insights!

@benji-menji 2 жыл бұрын

Even if a 7 has the highest chance to be rolled, the dice don't seem to feel like rolling a 7 as much that day.

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

lol, same for the 2 & 3 going against the odds. But if you were betting money, would you bet on 7 or 12?

@benji-menji 2 жыл бұрын

@@KenPlaysCatan That depends on the winnings multiplier for 7 and 12 and how many rolls I pay in for. If they had the same winnings and I rolled once then automatically 7. Even if a 12 was rolled then RNJesus must hate me that day and would have rolled 7 even if I picked 12.

@charbelwakim7663 2 жыл бұрын

And also we should take into consideration that after settling we increase our production income by x and if we city we double the production on the spot.

@KenPlaysCatan 2 жыл бұрын

100%, well I guess 200%

@latvian_fallen_angel 7 ай бұрын

I yesterday play with my friends and 12 rolled 3 times in the row. In all the game 12 rolled like 6 times but number 5 rolled only 1 time in all the game. :)