Amid market jitters & guesswork, reading 2014, 2019 poll numbers & gap Modi/BJP rivals must cover

Рет қаралды 178,560

17 күн бұрын

#CutTheClutter #loksabhaelection2024
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured victory in 105 seats with a margin exceeding 3 lakh votes, marking a significant increase of 63 seats compared to 2014. This highlights the formidable challenge that opposition parties are expected to encounter in the 2024 general elections. With LS polls halfway, in Episode 1449 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta discusses the key numbers, victory margins, momentum of the contesting parties in 2014 & 2019 and what is the distance BJP challengers have to cover to reverse fortunes.
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02:34-- BJP's vote share in 2014 and 2019
06:18-- BJP, Congress and others: Vote share, victory margins, hits and losses
11:26-- Percentage wise seat share by different parties in 2014 and 2019
19:04-- BJP’s challengers
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Amogh Rohmetra article here: theprint.in/politics/bjp-won-...
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theprint.in/elections/bjp-won...
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Пікірлер: 737

@ThePrintIndia 15 күн бұрын

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@Venmash-kx9zf 15 күн бұрын

Thank you Mr Gupta. You are the only one who takes Yogendra Yadav seriously. Your reputation is also going down the tank along with him.

@arektatejo2035 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar, about the graphs, as margins increase, are the higher margin numbers also included in lower margin numbers or all are exclusive??? e.g. are the 4 seats won by 6L+ margin, also inclusive in 5L+ bar graph and 4L+ bar graph and so on? or is it exclusive ?

@DineshRaghupathy 14 күн бұрын

People at "The Print" Please book a psychiatrist in advance coz you are gonna need one on the June 04th.....All your rants and hate propaganda headed by Uncle SG will be silenced....

@abhijithshetty24 15 күн бұрын

Yogendra yadav is Politician one day, One day he is a farmer, one day is poll analyst..duggal saab

@HeartistMurali 15 күн бұрын

But Modi is just a liar

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

Jinka upr ka maala khali wo hi rahul ko support kr skte h@@HeartistMurali

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

@@HeartistMuraligive me one reason to vote for rahul?

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

@@HeartistMuralid.i....t..s like u r responsible for why our country was under congress for 70 years with no substantial development

@parthiban51643 15 күн бұрын

He is urban Naxal

@anurag4722 15 күн бұрын

Yogendra Yadav pr to shekhar sir ko bhi bhrosa nhi 😂😂😂😂😂

@vatsalsingh1555 15 күн бұрын

Uspe kaun bhaosa karega, usne bhi chalaki se bjp ki seats 220 se 23-240 kar diya 4th phase ke baad, ab dekhna 1 june tak woh bhi bolega bjp ko 270 aa rahe hain.

@RamNaidu-vh1ji 15 күн бұрын

😂😂😂😂

@nationfirst879 15 күн бұрын

Khudko use uspar bharosa nahi hai 😅😅😂😂

@rajx7120 15 күн бұрын

Maybe, everyone he interviewed, lied to him. 🤣🤣🤣

@ranganathrao4260 15 күн бұрын

Market reactions are natural during election times. Nothing to do with the outcome of results.

@yetanotheropinion.843 15 күн бұрын

Yogendra Y’s USP is to make predictions and then apologize when they go wrong.

@sankalp6872 15 күн бұрын

Actually Shri Yoya has NEVER apologized. Nor have any of the Media houses that regularly provide space to idiot have ever questioned his track record.

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

He makes more of wishful thinking than genuine predictions.

@mrzib.crimson 15 күн бұрын

Last time he got angry on Gurgaon’s voters. I’m not wrong, the voters are.

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

@@mrzib.crimson LOL true, I remember 😂

@atokimruk937 15 күн бұрын

He is a flop. A congenital liar but we all know why he is featured here.

@sankalp6872 15 күн бұрын

I am no Mahashri Yogendra Yadav Baba, but i'll quote the time tested saying - "Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics". Two things are going in favor of the BJP 1) its unmatchable and even enviable Organization 2) It is once again a Presidential style Modi vs Rahul Gandhi election. Based on what I observed during my constituency's voting phase, I can safely say that the BJP organization is running round the clock. BJP workers arranged coolers, water, softdrinks for voters during the voter, while INC booth workers didn;t even arrange any shade. BJP organization ensured voter turn out. Of course, it is possible that the people that people could have voted against Modi which we shall know only on June 4. However, Congress simply does NOT have the logistics to counter the BJP and Rahul getting so easily overshadowed by Kejriwal itself tells you the status of Rahul Gandhi in an average Indian's mindscape. Congress needs to address its structural malice.

@rajendrajasathy4356 15 күн бұрын

Say Saleem maulvi....he is not a hindu but a mussadi....

@akshay5672 15 күн бұрын

This is almost right 💯

@modikadost 15 күн бұрын

That's accurate no party today can match the organisational capabilities of the BJP. I observed the same at booth level, and on my booth INDIA alliance representatives were sitting away using phones, while BJP representatives were giving water, helping elderly people, and managing queues. Also my father was on election duty on one booth and BJP representatives arranged lunch for ell officials (even though it's the department's responsibility). I can't believe how INDIA alliance can think of winning with such a weak organisation.

@JOHNSON-xt5gi 15 күн бұрын

Because of congress parties Bank account seized

@sankalp6872 15 күн бұрын

@@JOHNSON-xt5gi Nope. A lien of 115 crores. Meaning they were free to withdraw money except 115 crores.

@SuperCanonX2 15 күн бұрын

If pulwama was a factor in 2019, then ram mandir too is a factor in 2024. The voters who voted for bjp "ONLY" for pulwama ( if any), will this time vote for bjp again because of ram mandir. I do not think voters are that stupid that they will only vote because of these emotional events. BJP has transformed the lives and livelihoods of many Indians especially in rural areas and that is why the rural folk too vote for BJP.

@pinchofsalt4380 15 күн бұрын

So are electoral bonds, paper leaks, inflation, unemployment, prajwal revanna, farmers protest, and the fatigue

@Fambam-cu1wk 15 күн бұрын

“Fatigue” - what a stupid argument. Congress ruled more than 50 years, why not Modi for another 10 years ?

@repanh1979 15 күн бұрын

@pinchofsalt4380 ignorant so scamgress TMC DMK TRS TDP did not receive the electoral bonds if they claim electoral bonds is a scam.then.why they accepted this in first place regarding revanna he is a JD party member it is an individual act can't rewind what NT Diwari ex scamgress minister did as a.governor go and check chamcha

@BharatThatIsIndia 15 күн бұрын

"BJP has transformed the lives and livelihoods of many indians". Based on which data u r saying this? Did u see any data which suggested that? The income of the bottom 5% of Indians is already getting less income. Income stagnant for the middle class. The same way, GDP growth is less than previous UPA 10 years. Unemployment is record high. So I am amazed at which data point, u r saying that lives of Indians are changed. I assume u r talking about+ve change. If u r talking about -ve change then I agree. 🙂 By the way, Modi ji also doesn't believe in his Vikas. He only knows Hindu Muslim, Pakistan.

@lingarajeurs6651 15 күн бұрын

@@pinchofsalt4380I think 1st time you are seeing all the issues.

@TejJos-hw9zl 15 күн бұрын

Dear Mr Gupta, by having Yogendra Yadav run his articles in Print, you are damaging already thin credibility of ThePrint. Least you could have done is review his track record for 2019 assembly polls and 2022 UP polls. He failed miserably in his predictions because his research is agenda based. Anyway…till June 5th Modi will get defeated every day ! And then there will be June 4th to start blaming EVMs, polarization etc 😀

@elliotalderson2007 15 күн бұрын

Don't worry about print's credibility, indian television news media is not any better North Korea. indian media has become a laughing stock in the past 10 years. It is destroying india's image worldwide. Amit shah in every election says he is going to win but half of the time he loses. It would not be surprising if he loses again

@abhishek_gupta1990 15 күн бұрын

😂😂

@HarmanHundal01 15 күн бұрын

Who told you that The Print has thin credibility? Been reading Godi media, are we?

@Contractor48 15 күн бұрын

We are graduates from dhruv rathee university. Only lodi and lutyens media for us.

@elliotalderson2007 14 күн бұрын

@@Contractor48 He is Andbhakton ka Badru Rashid🤣🤣🤣

@PrateekBehera 15 күн бұрын

Has Yogendra Yadav ever been correct?

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

He makes wishful thinking rather than genuine predictions.

@RamNaidu-vh1ji 15 күн бұрын

😂😂😂😂😂

@vijaymaske1322 15 күн бұрын

He is Really Frustrated and Desperate now... Poor Guy... Really feel Sad for him...😊😊😊

@naanallamuthu5038 15 күн бұрын

@@vijaymaske1322 Are you paying 1250 Rs gas cylinder which is supposed to be 450 Rs? This is what the issue in this election. 2014 - RSS created Vinod Rai and Anna hazare to steal the election. 2019 - RSS created Pulwama and steal the election. Both dramas were exposed big time. This election there is no gimmick and nothing helps RSS and Modi. You cannot fool people always. It is their turn this time.

@Preetham6987 15 күн бұрын

Yes 2019 he was right he predicted 300+

@piyushagarwal1350 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar Sir has to forcibly make detailed videos in response to shri shri shri shri yogendra yadav's rubbish and stupid predictions.

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

Nah not prediction. More of wishful thinking.

@rajendrajasathy4356 15 күн бұрын

His true name is Saleem, he changed name to get acceptance.....

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

@@rajendrajasathy4356 So you are trying to imply that he thinks Muslims don't get acceptance in India? That makes him a bloody hypocrite.

@HeavenRacer422 15 күн бұрын

That's not prediction. That's his tactics to appease his followers.

@elliotalderson2007 15 күн бұрын

@@rajendrajasathy4356 Dhruv Rathi's real name is Badru Rashid😂😂😂

@viveksridhar1241 15 күн бұрын

Shekar's reputation was at stake. Good video to put Yogendra to his place

@sivani.ysk. 15 күн бұрын

How is his reputation at stake?

@magadh4762 15 күн бұрын

Most of media people never understand BHARAT. They are from India.😅😅

@chiruboy23 15 күн бұрын

Because people like SG have a cosmopolitan and forward mindset.However there are deyhatis exception like Anrab and Navika who are regressive.

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

@@chiruboy23bjp has done better job than congress ever did in 30 years They must and they will come to power !

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

@@chiruboy23no s.a.n...would ever choose rahul over modi

@somerandomguy9125 14 күн бұрын

@@drg598Better job? The unemployment rate is soaring, inequality is higher than it was under British times, society is extremely polarized, Manipur is still burning, China continues to patrol former Indian checkposts at Galwan, food standards have dropped, the Air Force is stuck at a measly number of 32 combat squadrons (IAF doctrine prescribes a minimum of 42 btw), our infantrymen wear plate carriers from the 80s, I could go on and on. I'm not going to deny that UPA rule had it's own drawbacks in terms of Islamist terrorism and higher inflation but I absolutely CANNOT agree that the BJP is any better than the INC. Don't cite growth to me. We are at a phase where the GDP will grow no matter who comes in power (unless it's outright communists).

@drg598 14 күн бұрын

@@somerandomguy9125 bjp currently is any day better than rahul leading congress Ppl hv hopes from them Giving them governance 3rd time is only good option

@kamalsh6123 15 күн бұрын

Yesterday Yogendra was on Sardesai's TV debate with economist Surjit Bhalla and psephologist Pradeep Gupta. He started off with great bluster that BJP would be crushed. Then he toned it down slightly to say they would get less than 272 seats and then subsequently said they might just scrape through. As proof he said he had talked to some handful of persons around the country and they had given the opinion that they would not be voting for BJP this time. Bhalla on the other hand had done a scientific analysis of the historical data and concluded BJP would get close to 330 seats. Pradeep Gupta was not willing to commit anything initially but when he heard Yogendra persisting with his vague predictions, he came out and said clearly that the BJP would do very well in unexpected places. Yogendra has turned so hostile to Modi that his psephology is now tailored to always show BJP losing badly.

@subodhjain6440 15 күн бұрын

Yogendra Salim Yadav is a tail which is making the Shekhar Gupta wag 😂

@Therhizomemind 15 күн бұрын

😂

@elliotalderson2007 15 күн бұрын

nah, he is wagging his tail for gappu

@pinchofsalt4380 15 күн бұрын

The number of people who have stopped watching your content should be an indicator for you how much you are connected to the common masses. When you loose that connect you no longer find yourself in a position to predict what the mood of people is. P.S you need to introspect into statistics of your channel first.

@srikanthsanthanam1628 14 күн бұрын

You may be hundred percent right in your opinion but can't be so blunt against SG

@Paresh127 15 күн бұрын

Modi will be aar paar more ruthless after 4 june

@neilbhatt7096 15 күн бұрын

can't wait for that and I agree. I had been saying this for a very long time. Khoon ke aansu rulayega ab ye Hindu haters ko.

@VikasSingh-ko9hq 14 күн бұрын

After 2 phase modi abd team ko pata pad gy th Muslim vote nhi kar raha h ab poori bjp yogi shah openly congress pa Muslim appeasement k aarop laga rahi h ab dekho mujhe lgra 2024- 2029 ma bhaut kuch badlna vaala h

@neilbhatt7096 14 күн бұрын

@@VikasSingh-ko9hq they are not voting because they do not want to vote against BJP/Modi.

@Trirashmi 15 күн бұрын

Given the current options, anyone believes in nation building/India first theory, will vote for BJP, period. It’s an unfortunate state that INC is playing state election themes at national level with no long term vision. Playing Hindu caste census against Muslim reservations, freebies etc won’t lost long, rather Congress’s downfall will be synonymous that of Mani Shankar Aiyar😂😂

@0bajwa0 15 күн бұрын

ha ha ha modi ne khudh muslims ko OBC ka quota diya ha gujrat main

@LalitSwami-kc5oy 15 күн бұрын

SG should stop letting people like Yogendra yadav turnish credibility of the print.

@nitinpatel1039 15 күн бұрын

Those relying on dhruv rathee and yogibdra yadav for their election 😂what can u expect from them, as i always said no election in history of India is decided few weeks of campaigning, after first phase voting returned to normal, in states where their is fierce fight like west bengal, odisha, telangana, Andhra pardesh we are seing high turnout, no election result are changed few tweets or slogans in election campaign, opposition simply don't have what it takes to change govt at national level, especially after December election humbling and crbling of indi alliance post mamata, nitish departure it was fait accompli for this a

@Rahul8592 15 күн бұрын

Go to hell with your farrzzi thought process.

@mg.f.9023 15 күн бұрын

Mudi relying on Lies, Jumlas & Godi Media.

@rutwikdixit5885 15 күн бұрын

Hey can you do the same analysis from the opposite point of view? Like how did they win and where etc?

@umangsrivastav6799 15 күн бұрын

Honestly, even during 2019 elections there were hopes that the BJP will not be able to repeat its 2014 performance. Back then, Balakot was dismissed as a factor that would influence 2019 elections. It is only now that i hear people like Rajdeep Sardesai talk of 2019 as a wave election, driven by balakot. Similarly, people like VY analysing these elections, at this point, fail to account for Ram Mandir. Additionally, it is unlikely that traditional BJP voters will en mass vote against the BJP. I say this because ideological poles are all the more rigid now. Being a statistician myself, i know that the respondents tend to give answers that they believe the enumerator is looking for. No wonder so many exit polls fail. Additionally, what many pollsters seem to conveniently ignore is the fact that disillusionment with party A does not naturally translate into a vote for party B. Disillusioned voters have the option to not vote and also to pick nota. Unlike 2014, i do not see an environment where people want to vote out the government in power therefore a transfer of vote from BJP to INC is highly unlikely. Yes, the number of seats may come down but will only happen because the BJP is peaking.

@babublue69 15 күн бұрын

Mark my words my bjp this time won't get 272 ,that bjp know even before elections 😊,2019 people think bjp won because of pulwama ,no bjp at that timeanyway get majority ..

@SaumadeepMukherjee 15 күн бұрын

@@babublue69what about mp,Chattisgarh and rajasthan assembly results last year .....bjp won and increased it's seats compared to last time inspite of years of anti incumbency and there was no pulwama. 😂 congress voters are excited but there balloons will burst on 4th june...I see no anger aganist bjp trust me

@karismaticquotes-bd4so 15 күн бұрын

It seems your analysis is extremely biased. You said disillusioned voters will not cross vote. But he will not go to votes and the opponents voters go to vote ultimately the opponents will win as they will get more votes.

@umangsrivastav6799 15 күн бұрын

@@karismaticquotes-bd4so we have no evidence to say that 1. That the BJP voters are disillusioned 2. That the people not going to vote are all BJP voters. 3. That disillusion is the only reason for a reduced voter turnout Further, we need to understand that disillusionment works both ways. Inc can also be disillusioned because of factors like alliance with TMC and CPI, muslim quota, rewaris, etc. It works both ways.

@drg598 15 күн бұрын

@@babublue69sarr me bhery egucated Me bhatch deily dhruv and rabbish sarr

@rameshwarsomvanshi8792 15 күн бұрын

जोकर योगेंद्र बोल था मध्य प्रदेश मे bjp के 50 seats आयगी ओर 150 आ गयी ये योगेंद्र यादव पनोती है😡😡

@ghatak580 15 күн бұрын

Panoti hai par opposition ke liye😂

@mangalam328 15 күн бұрын

Everybody is predicting what seats BJP will get but nobody is predicting about Congress seats. Why?😂😂😂

@MotoJoshi 15 күн бұрын

No matter what everyone says,desh ki janta knows who will win 400 seats

@praneethjayasimha5943 15 күн бұрын

BJP vote share in the south will increase dramatically.

@sleepingduty2987 15 күн бұрын

wait a while, will ya laddy?

@lordanubysh 15 күн бұрын

Dramatically, I don’t think so but significantly? Yes

@mg.f.9023 15 күн бұрын

South: Hold my Rassam😂

@ushabajpai5502 15 күн бұрын

@@sleepingduty2987ye americans ki slang ko jabardasti copy karke cool banne ki koshish mat Kiya karo bhaut cringe lagta hai ek number ke chutiya lagte ho.

@nadirhussain7698 15 күн бұрын

Oodiko kandam varzhi

@abhishek_gupta1990 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar sir - It’s Indi alliance not India alliance

@jagmohanuppal1078 15 күн бұрын

If Yogendra Yadav is the one you are dependent on for 2024 Polls forecast, will request you to read his forecast for 2019 elections in his articles in Print. Can't forget his remarks at your post 2019 poll conference wherein Yogendra Yadav sat next to you and expressed his anger against those who voted for BJP and wanted to slap these voters. Can such person's opinion.be accepted? God Bless Print for promoting with people.

@sunnyjoseph615 15 күн бұрын

In Kerala, BJP is assured of 4 seats which can go up to 8 , if the ground calculations went right..

@luvuindia8409 14 күн бұрын

Itna v exited nhi hona kerla me 1 seat bhi jp ko aa Jaye uo badi bat hai

@ak-875 14 күн бұрын

Kerala BJP May get 2 seats at best .

@pranjalsoni1743 15 күн бұрын

If we go by analysis of Yogendra Yadav BJP is definitely crossing 320. YoYa had predicted BJP's loss in 2019, 2022 UP election and last election of MP, CG and Rajasthan prooved wrong. This is going to happen again

@sachintelang8549 15 күн бұрын

My minimum seat projection UP+BR+MP+GJ =150 RJ+Delhi+PJ+HM+J&K+UK+HR=40 CG+OR+JHK=30 NE=20 WB+MH+KR=50 TG+AP+TN+KER=10 Total 🟰 300, it can go up to 325.

@sachintelang8549 15 күн бұрын

BJP is going to clean sweep MP, GJ, UP (this time there is no SP, BSP alliance). Even in remaining states if they perform average they will get 300.

@subashchandrasahu5769 15 күн бұрын

350-360

@sagardixit1513 15 күн бұрын

If BJP fails to get 272… and relies upon NDA… it’s difficult to rely upon those who can turn seats… coz BJP abused every other one…

@parthadey6866 15 күн бұрын

252

@ferozmarbaniang3653 15 күн бұрын

In your Dream in Northeast not more than 10 seats bro.. 😁

@graciousvarun 15 күн бұрын

Such a forced video... I lost interest when he mentioned yogendra yadav

@gourav809 15 күн бұрын

Come on selhar I m paying print not to get yogendra Yadav rubbish to be discussed

@michael_ck345 15 күн бұрын

By the way, Mr. Jogendra once fought elections and lost by a distance. He might have won had his assessments took ground. That's history. Mind you, I have high regard for his wisdom & respect.

@thehealmohan 15 күн бұрын

Respect for going wrong? Yogendra is shameless person when he had gone wrong last most of the time still shamelessly making predictions as expert. .Actually he is speaking for some master or for some kick backs.

@Sk-cr2bl 15 күн бұрын

Jay shree Ram 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

@user-ei5br4cs8z 15 күн бұрын

If there is no 400 par How will the market react to this news ?

@EggRoll0301 15 күн бұрын

400 or 300 doesn't matter. If BJP wins, the share market will see a rise

@maheshvenkat9956 15 күн бұрын

Then 303 will not happen and RSS will disown Modi

@sanchitsankhyan3904 14 күн бұрын

@@EggRoll0301 nope the market loves majority win because then there is a hope for stable governance but if there is a neck to neck win then maybe not this time but the next time the result will be unexpected so thats why a safe number should be there or majority win

@EggRoll0301 14 күн бұрын

@@sanchitsankhyan3904 I mean I got profits back in 2019 when BJP got just 303.

@prathameshgaonkar7234 15 күн бұрын

NDA has gone past 270 in 4th phase.

@DriveDawn 15 күн бұрын

It's just 3 weeks left now.. why are we all getting so anxious.. one side is going to win and another will lose.. politics will stay as pathetic as it is now, environment won't get better, food will still contain poisionous substances... nothing will change in the life of a middle class person.. so take a deep breath and relax y'all.

@sreenathatirunarayanapura9296 15 күн бұрын

Politics has its limitations Common man should get educated morally abd ethically We are teaching our kids to succeed at any cost Parents are responsible for this mess When people are bad country will be bad

@raghurao9332 15 күн бұрын

What is life if lived cynically?

@triptigupta8048 15 күн бұрын

@@raghurao9332 Life of Pie

@DriveDawn 14 күн бұрын

@@raghurao9332 Ignorance is bliss my brother. Delulu is the only solulu.

@narayananmahalingam 14 күн бұрын

I reached this page to not listen to the video rant. But to read the comments. Reading the comments confirmed that I made a wise decision!!!!

@jayantasarkar8358 15 күн бұрын

My take I sense that the body language of the PM has dramatically improved after the third round.

@kannaiah7693 15 күн бұрын

He looks physically tired .. Not when he speaks

@sujithkumar2041 15 күн бұрын

Yes, he spoke less and thus less nonsense.

@1abc546 15 күн бұрын

Absolutely my take too. He was bit shaky after first phase....now he is totally relaxed.

@ayanban72 15 күн бұрын

Unfortunately, more clutter than cut! If an increase of 6.5% increase in vote share in '19 resulted in a seat increase of only 21, clearly the numbers increased in places where the BJP was already strong (as you do mention once, but fail to emphasize). There are a few crucial points in this election: 1. The BJP has maxed in most states of the North. 2. Statistics considering vote share of more than 50% in a bipolar election is misleading - much better is to look at the vote difference. How many seats did the BJP win with less than 5% vote difference in '19? Please remember that a turnaround of up to 4-5% may be possible in elections where local issues dominate, or where local anti-incumbency against a candidate exists. 3. Much more important than such statistics is the realpolitik in states such as Karanataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, and WB. In all these states, the situation is very different from '19, and there is no way the BJP can better their performance from then. 4. If the BJP does lose seats here, where do they recover those, since other than UP - North and Central India are already maxed. The question thus boils down to - can UP provide the seats lost in the four swing states? Remember even Rajasthan and Haryana may not deliver full marks this time!

@CallofForest123 15 күн бұрын

West Bengal orissa TN Assam UP, Andhra, telagana , in case of any loss in the north indian state where bjp won 100% seats, above-mentioned states bjp.will revover

@enseephotos4090 14 күн бұрын

WB will likely give more to BJP, people are fed up of the corruption and goondagardi of TMC. If BJP gets 224 solid where SG mentions they got more than 50% last time, then no amount of PINDI alliance short of a single candidate will make any difference in those seats. BJP may end up making inroads in TN, AP, TG (since regional anti-incumbency or opposition being INC). Especially AP and TG regionals are in a backfoot now, with anti-incumbency and corruption being large issues. BJP will likely also gain in OD, the remaining 2 in CG, a couple in AS and a few here and there. Where is INC going to gain seats from? In Karnataka? Assembly difference was only 2-3%, and INC won in 2018 and lost in 2019 there, same situation this time. With JDS in a mess, and Revanna cases, BJP will eat the JDS votes and likely easily make up while throwing a few peanuts to local MPs of JDS to eventually switch - JDS is a sinking ship - so direct INC-BJP fight where BJP usually wins out.

@viveksridhar1241 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar Gupta is back with ...his class. That's what data analytics proves and how well u summed it up. Election may be dull but there is nothing substantial to make this tectonic shift of votes against BJP. Am buying shares and MF.....

@pramodhvittals 15 күн бұрын

Shekar ji said BJP is coming to power without directly calling it out 😄

@shivkumarrp8515 15 күн бұрын

You say that BJP won a narrow majority in 2014. It must be remembered that it was the first election since 1984 that a party won a majority! Also the BJP won only 119 seats in 2009 and doubled it in 2014. It is not necessary that a two thirds majority is required to consider it a landslide win

@vkramchander1126 15 күн бұрын

Valid point indeed! But then it is necessary to downplay any positive achievement of BJP.

@lone_ranger4826 15 күн бұрын

Kindly check Mr. Yogendra Yadav's predictions on recent state elections where he gave sweeping majority to INDI alliance in all three states, while the actual results where just opposite 😂

@FloraFauna321 15 күн бұрын

Every single data point and chart shared by SG in this episode has been shared earlier. No new perspective. Was the purpose of this episode more of a disclaimer that YoYa's opinion is not Print's opinion? SG in damage control mode?

@nishantdalmia5292 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar Ji - I think a good comparative to add would be 1984 vs 1989 election. How did the vote swing that much in 1989?

@victor256in 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar could you tell us what the betters and punters are saying....kitne ka rate chal raha hai election ka betting market mein. Paise lagane hain.

@aravindakumar1549 15 күн бұрын

Fantastic analysis, Sir! Thank you.❤

@vaibhavdesai16 15 күн бұрын

Thank you for indirect market prediction, now we can take our own decision..!!

@blackjacka5350 15 күн бұрын

😂😂😂 finally he is retrieving, making ground to avoid embarrassment like last time

@muhammadhabeeb8632 15 күн бұрын

Sir, ive got a question, you’re coming up with an analysis that BJP got more than 50% votes and let’s say congress got 30%, if BJP loses it’s vote it’ll go to it’s primary opposition in a seat most often than not, so if that’s the case there only needs to be a change of 11%-15% based on each seats and if that happens even in 20 seats it’s game on

@vikramkrishnan6414 15 күн бұрын

When your employee utters such complete nonsense that you have to come out and basically issue a statement to the contrary so that you don't lose credibility.

@srikanthsanthanam1628 14 күн бұрын

😂

@og2838 14 күн бұрын

BJP is winning election easily. Congress is doing premature celebration.

@rajeshkonkalil4416 15 күн бұрын

While we all need a strong opposition in the country, any alliances will take away the growth speed of India. Because each alliance party will either try to develop their own state or make money during their term. Hence, this country badly requires a majority government that creates opportunities for the poor to come out of this circle (not provide freebies or free money). Secondly, we need a Govt who focuses on long-term goals for the benefits of kids to see a developed nation and enjoy their life instead of short term benifits for votes. Few KZfaqrs who are criticising the Govt and getting millions of views is the new weapon for our enemy countries who want to stop India from becoming a superpower. Unfortunately, those who follow them are unaware of this trap.

@shivanshivan6704 15 күн бұрын

All these charts are fine, but Modi has the critical mass supporting him. He has done something for every segment of the society. He has gone to the public on the back of deliveries. Since Congress has been out of power, it has only promises whereas BJP has performance to show.

@0bajwa0 15 күн бұрын

modi kon c delivery ki baat kar raha hai???? hindu muslim hi kar raha hai abhi tak

@shivanshivan6704 15 күн бұрын

@@0bajwa0 aap kis duniya mein rehte hain?

@1abc546 15 күн бұрын

@@0bajwa0indi alliance sirf muslim muslim karta hai, toh modi unhe expose karne ko hindu muslim hi toh karega? Usne kaunsa kisi muslim ke saath bhedbhav kiya hai..

@0bajwa0 15 күн бұрын

@@1abc546 aisa ka mil geya muslims ko...thoda bata do...picchle 26 saal main 15 saal BJP thi...ajj tak hindu dara hua hi hai....rich poor divide ..british time tak pahunch geya... yogi ..akhilesh ke jaaney ke baad govt office ka ...sudhikaran kar raha hai..yeh hai ek hindu doosrey hindu ko kaisey dekhta hai...precentage ke hisab se dekh lo..muslims kitni govt job kar rahey hai...aur brahmin kitney...aur OBC kitne

@1abc546 15 күн бұрын

@@0bajwa0 muslim appeasement politics partition ke time se shuru hai. Likhte likhte mere haath thak jaayenge. Khud research karlo.

@puliyakot 14 күн бұрын

These 2, 3, and 5 lakh numbers can be largely the result of bias rather than rationality. Bias can work either ways. Numbers alone will not the story. Reasons behind the numbers are also equally important.

@therandomthings6933 15 күн бұрын

This time big gains from Andhra and Telangana, at least 30 seats from these two states. Karnataka might dent to 18-20 seats, Tamil Nadu and Kerala at least 5 seats covers Karnataka loss. If AIDMK WINS 10 seats then advantage for BJP as buffer and same in Odisha with BJD also. Challenge is in Maharashtra, Bihar and Wes bengal.

@bhaarateeyakannadiga134 15 күн бұрын

thx very much to SG , for at last flagging modi's victory in 2024 ..... great insightful analysis

@SmokeFree1983 13 күн бұрын

I didn’t vote for PM Modi because his name wasn’t on my EVM. I voted for the local representative in the Parliament in my constituency. The last two terms I voted for the BJP. In 2019 I even voted for the BJP candidate who is a class 12 pass. No change happened, promises were hollow. My MP failed to deliver. So this time I voted for the opposition. I voted and my job is done for the next 5 years.

@radhakrishnachalla33 15 күн бұрын

Very revealing approach to reality! SHEKARĴI you hit the nail onnits head! BRAVO!

@ManisCharan4261 15 күн бұрын

Why the data of exit polls not gets leaked on internet or telegram. Given the sheer size of india where even exam paper get leaked.

@soundar4270 15 күн бұрын

Media is under Control of BJP

@rajbaniwal3236 15 күн бұрын

It is leaked, you just have to read between the lines. As the phases have progressed, you see how RaGa is reducing his estimate of BJP from less than 300 to less than 272 to less than 230 to less than 150. He has seen the exit poll data and he knows that NDA is coming back with a bigger mandate and hence he is trying reverse psychology to minimise the losses to Congress. Congress won’t get a seat more than 30 this time. They had 52 last time.

@rajx7120 15 күн бұрын

Exit poll is not allowed to conduct.

@rajbaniwal3236 15 күн бұрын

@@rajx7120 Exit polls are allowed to be conducted but the results can’t be made public till all phases of the election are completed.

@priyavratshukla7511 14 күн бұрын

Shekhar ji please do the same number analysis after June 4. That will be the episode to watch.

@shreyanschordia2496 14 күн бұрын

Kudos to your research in this analysis... Fruitful statistics used to identify the political scenario. Great job sir

@TanveerSingh 15 күн бұрын

Heard the name Yogendra Yadav at 3:30 and exited. Thanks but no thanks. I hope this does not count as a view.

@Oldies701 15 күн бұрын

A very thirough n comprehensivedata based analysis by a v se for JOURNALIST.Hats of

@jamesgarey1923 15 күн бұрын

These old analysts think they are still in 70s era

@Neetish21 15 күн бұрын

Like they mention pulwama / balakot When they discuss 2029 they will say 2024 was the Ram mandir effect

@sachinnahar4261 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar ji, listening to you and Yogendra ji.....such differing views on the same channel....would love to see both of you discuss on 2024 elections....and I am sure this would be a decent discussion with both sharing their differing views and at times aligning on some points.....unlike the dramatic TV debates which is tu tu mei mei and too mach bashing....it would sent a precedent as to how differing views can be discussed and put to public view strongly without bashing....

@ThePrintIndia 15 күн бұрын

It is a fine suggestion, Sachin. Let's see what can be done about it. Thank you for watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar

@gopiishere 15 күн бұрын

A very good analysis shekhar ji Thank you Stay blessed

@harshbedmutha3786 15 күн бұрын

Should have commented on the permutations and combinations of effect of low voter turnout.

@_kartik_chauhan 15 күн бұрын

I will be true to myself after first two phases i was a little bit pessimistic about BJP's performance because of turnout data but the third phase because of gujarat hinted a relief but this fourth phase has given BJP the edge because of Telugu States BJP will gain that it may have lost in Karnataka or Say Rajasthan now the scale is open, Odisha and West Bengal will see BJP becoming single largest party in their lok sabha Maybe Telangana as well only state that BJP is going to focus in the last phase is Punjab and Prime Minister went patna sahib to official start the punjab lag

@kumarakantirava429 15 күн бұрын

forget punjab. ktaka bjp 15

@legoooo09 15 күн бұрын

True, Telangana & Andhra combined will give 25 to 30 seats

@umangupadhyay6748 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar gupta be like, once bitten, twice shy 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@gulabh 12 күн бұрын

How many people think bjp will not lose substantial seats in Maharashtra?

@rakeshagusthya5582 15 күн бұрын

Well said

@anshu_1601 15 күн бұрын

SG, if you have to get someone to go out in the field to talk to people why does it have to be an obviously biased person like Yogendra Yadav who is ex-AAP? And after that you have the temerity to say that you have nothing to do with his opinions.

@blastoff2moon429 15 күн бұрын

Since when did Yogendra Yadav joined the congress ? 😂

@prajobsubran3491 14 күн бұрын

Excellent statistical analysis which does not happen often. Thanks for the informations.

@khaidemchidananda1590 15 күн бұрын

After reading lots of data Shekhar Gupta always think Modi is the best PM of the universe 😂😂😂

@rijzone 15 күн бұрын

I think it might be helpful to compare the latest assembly election data also since we are looking at a rather localized election this time.

@enlightnedsoul4124 15 күн бұрын

June 4th Bharat will become Ramrajya 🧡 Jai Shri Ram 🙏🙏🙏

@shubhangbahadur7112 15 күн бұрын

Isn't it already one?

@kannaiah7693 15 күн бұрын

Jai shreeram Let's not be lethargic

@avsbiyani 15 күн бұрын

Yes brother Bharat will become Ramrajya as I.N.D.I.A will win

@vikrantbachhav 15 күн бұрын

🤣

@nrusimha11 15 күн бұрын

"Hey can you do the same analysis from the opposite point of view? Like how did they win and where etc?"

@manuabhaysinghal3819 15 күн бұрын

If the measure of the chatter is benchmarked of stock market then it's INCORRECT observation the market has gone down less compared to what happened in 2019 election time. And it happens commonly between phase 3 and last phase, CUZ market is about sentiment of the investors

@Moneymatterfacts 14 күн бұрын

We wld like to see… whether the candidates who hv won wid big margin, hv got the ticket dis time and are they contesting from the same seat. Since we at public wont hv dat much energy to find this data.. it wld be awsme if someone at print shares dis data.

@sourabhbhattacharya3411 15 күн бұрын

Ab ki baar 25 paar...Rahul to congress

@Siddharth_Rao 15 күн бұрын

Strong campaign video by Shekhar.

@shreea3131 15 күн бұрын

Yogendra Yadav has said to India Today that he has not used any tools and does not have any measuring tool to predict hinting on anecdotal information

@AmitAnandchauhan 15 күн бұрын

brilliant episode

@ajit2187 15 күн бұрын

This massive Vote share wasn't a natural vote share, it was acquired based on nationalistic wave last time based on events. Media was still trusted by large population, social media apparatus of BJP was far superior compared to rivals and with only 5 years under the belt fatigue had not set in. So this 50% vote share argument that is presented isnt a accurate way to compare vote share with present situation. All these factors are very different now.

@avsbiyani 15 күн бұрын

I definitely agree with you. In 2019, the narrative was a very different one, if you supported opposition or even questioned the BJP, you were branded as anti-national, anti-hindu. Congress was considered anti-national, RG was called pappu. I also think a lot has changed. Congress looks way more organized and ahead on the narrative. Some voters are tired with the destruction of secular fabric, quite a few voters haven't forgotten Covid mismanagement, CAA, Farm Laws, Migrants crisis. Not to mention the abuse of power by BJP Leaders especially on the Local level.

@racistocrazy 15 күн бұрын

@@avsbiyanisituation is similar 😂😂nothing has changed. Congress was having same confidence in M.P, Chhattisgarh 5 months back but what happened?? Liberals might live in hypothetical lala lands but elections are a science and BJP does it correctly. Situation is not the same you may be right but anti-incumbency exists in bengal, orrisa, T.N, a.p and Kerala also. Gains and loss of many parties will maintain equilibrium at macro levels. But dreaming of BJP loss might not work.

@rez142 15 күн бұрын

Let's not forget the fatigue initiated by the pandemic. Now post pandemic with inflation, causing lack of savings, & job losses for non IT hubs due to lack of new opportunity with global slow down can put any party under pressure. Let's not forget AI is the next wave. we are in trouble no matter wins but whoever wins should work hard to prepare for future shocks for 140 crore Indians as we are not an oil rich country or mass export of any natural resources.

@racistocrazy 15 күн бұрын

@@rez142 true. Elections should also be interpreted with economic pov

@1abc546 15 күн бұрын

Well ppl i know of pretty disgusted with congress agenda of wealth redistribution and other social economic policies.

@shriharshbankapur9666 15 күн бұрын

Interesting analyis!

@michael_ck345 15 күн бұрын

Assuming Mr. Jogendra Yadav's assessment is true, then the question that popped up is whether those who are not voting for BJP, will they vote en masse for a single party or not? Most likely, not. Most likely, they abstain from voting. Votes disaggregated, not concentrated in favour of a party or candidate.

@utpalmishra3789 15 күн бұрын

My prediction for bjp in 2024...........total loksabha seat...337.......🎉🎉

@TheLionKing2345 15 күн бұрын

Ab ki baar Yogendra Yadav tadipaar ! Yogendra is the equivalent of KRK (Kamaal R Khan) in psepholofy world ..

@arkatalukdar4472 15 күн бұрын

I think there is some error in the chart. Acc to the bar graph the BJP in 2019 won 164 seats by 2 lakh margin, 105 by 3 lakh, 44 by 4 lakh and 15 by > 5 lakh. Add them up and the total is greater than 303. Rather 328 to be precise.This is not even counting the less than 2 lakh seats. @shekhar sir did you get 2024 results early? The graph is credited to Ashoka University and ECI. Hmm, don't let Rahul Gandhi get hold of it, he will say this is the proof of election tampering. 😂😂😂😂😂

@ParthKulkarni7 14 күн бұрын

> 5 lakhs would include > 4 lakh, so on.

@arijitroy5969 15 күн бұрын

Prob the wisest analysis in these current circumstances.

@ranjitpal9937 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar Gupta Ji , Do You Expect Modi & Amit Will Say BJP will Get Less Then 250 Seats

@shashi165 15 күн бұрын

Shekhar bhai ne election ke 2 months pehle hi Modi ko jeeta diya hai. Bhai monkey balancing band karo

@indiccentristrational9755 15 күн бұрын

Liked before watching.I am a hardcore BJP supporter but know Sekhar Gupta issues somewhat balanced and logic statement.

@vkramchander1126 15 күн бұрын

So SG is adding to the heavy chatter! And discussing Yogendra Yadav! A clear pointer to the inclination of The Print.

@bolonabolona 15 күн бұрын

"Past performance is not indicative of future results", Irrespective of the prediction..mission "Kamal"can always come into play.. 17:37 when the people have voted one way, the level of disillusion is pretty high!!