In this video, I showcase a framework for answering any question involving a Bayesian calculation. This 5-step framework can be remembered with the mnemonic "Hot PinC JeeP." This mnemonic helps us form a table that will allow us to calculate the posterior probabilities that are often asked on exams.
"H": Hypothesis - On exams, there will usually be 2 hypotheses, though in theory you can have more. The hypotheses form the columns of our table. Hypotheses should be mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive. Example: "carrier" & "non-carrier" are the two hypotheses in this example.
There are 4 "PinC JeeP" probabilities in every Bayesian calculation. These probabilities form the rows of our table and include:
"P": Prior probability
"C": Conditional probability
"J": Joint probability
"P": Posterior probability
Here is a link to the paper "Bayesian Analysis and Risk Assessment in Genetic Counseling and Testing." I highly recommend reading it, as there are several examples in addition to the one I explain in this video.
www.ncbi.nlm.n...
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