Thank you! Captivating presentation. I will watch a second time.
@fbkintanar4 ай бұрын
Amazingly informative and lucid presentation. I am glad that there are 54 scientists working on this study, may your tribe increase. Public money for climate research is well spent on studies like this. The speculation towards the end about the prospect of a similar atmospheric river and heat wave hitting the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has me thinking about the actuarial risk of such a black swan event. My understanding is that scientists will only make a statement when the error bars are narrow enough, and the IPCC even has a standard set of plain English terms to correspond to the level of confidence. However, actuaries working for insurance companies know they will have to pay out in case of these big impact black swan events, and need to allocate resources to cover those eventualities. Perhaps the messaging towards policy makers and the general public needs to take a more actuarial perspective on risk and uncertainty. The cost of contingency funds to deal with these extreme events might make the cost of funding the carbon transition look more like a good bargain, considering that renewables already have a lower levelized cost of energy that fossil fuels. The world needs to make the initial investments in renewables that will enable turning off all operating and pipeline fossil energy plants within the decade, long before the anticipated lifetime of the plants. The investors in those fossil energy plants made a bad choice when they made those investments, they need to take their lumps in the light of the large externalities and human impacts of letting their carbon emissions continue.
@harveytheparaglidingchaser70396 ай бұрын
Interesting, did I understand this correctly: current models do not capture current temperature and weather extremes?
@a.randomjack66616 ай бұрын
To capture those correctly, models with much finer resolution are needed aka much better super-computers.
@reuireuiop04 ай бұрын
Models are just that, models. You get out what you put in. I just checked on the increase of cloud cover in Arctic regions. Hardly a word on it, clouds are notoriously hard to research and model, capricious swirly things as they are. But increasing cloud cover in the Arctic will prevent the Blue Ocean event from taking full effect - clouds easily form over cold humid open sea, while the air over ice fields is far drier, giving less rise to clouding. Clouds reflect sunlight just as well as white ice does, but the cloud cover also isolates the layers beneath m from cooling. The net effect is hardly looked at, there's only the odd paper. A climate explanation website based its info on 2003 (!!) report Without sufficient cloud development data, models have a big hole in m - and that's just one subject. I'd reckon there be at least five more major issues which are absent from models, or just calculated with patchy data. What the outcome would be with a more complete data and calculation set, anyone's guess. My inkling - things will be moving the wrong way far quicker than models project - plus the extremes will be way more extreme than calculated.
@cityofwelland6346 ай бұрын
That was excellent, thank you
@martiansoon90924 ай бұрын
Most climate models misses most tipping elements, so it is not so weird that they won't show atmospheric rivers with tropical heat over Antarctica. It is pretty hard to make reality based climate model that has these found extreme events, but are still projecting a stable climate in more normal situations.
@martiansoon90924 ай бұрын
If these atmospheric rivers brings down loads of rain instead of snow, the melting rate accerates at extreme speeds. And after that the area may have its average temperature risen by 0,06-0,6C due to lowered elevation (10-100m drop). Similarly extreme snowfall may lower regional temperatures, dpending on how long snow stays on the top of the ice sheet.
@grindupBaker4 ай бұрын
@martiansoon9092 For lowered elevation of 10-100m of ice requires 720,000 to 7,200,000 millimetre-degrees of rain. This is a trivially simple & obvious calculation. So if the rain is at 10 degrees for example it will require 72,000 to 720,000 millimetres of rain to melt the 10-100m thickness of ice, won't it ? That's an awful lot of rain isn't it ?
@martiansoon90924 ай бұрын
@@grindupBaker It is not only the rain, but what it does to albedo and to the ice afterwards. Surface gets much darker (ie. snow comes gray when water is added) and takes more heat from sunlight. And it ruins the surface with melt lakes (albedo absorbtion nearing 90%) and makes ice pourous. And even a small layer of water allows more heat to penetrate the surface more easily. And melt water runs down the moulins to the bedrock and acts as an lubricant speeding up the ice flow to the sea. (Some melt water stays inside ice sheet, not enough data for calc's...) Also cracks are more likely with higher speeds and other water made changes. Cracks adds even more speed and makes calving more likely. Higher flow speed also drops the surface specially near the outlets. ... It is not as simple calculation as you want it to be. And these local 10 meter per year melts have been recorded already. Some equipments and even research stations have found themselves melted away from the last years surface. 100m worth of melting is a multiyear event. But don't worry about your calc, models does not have all known things in them (scaling problem plus funding ends too soon... And there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns too... Most of these just makes melting faster.).
@vthilton6 ай бұрын
Save Our Planet Now!
@a.randomjack66616 ай бұрын
Who said it's "ours". Can you show the paperwork?
@chinookvalley6 ай бұрын
@@a.randomjack6661 Ha! It USED to be Nature's. The Garden of Eden. Where the deer and antelope play. Too often the concept of Nature is humanism, not the ones who are bearing the greatest burden. I live in a part of Colorado that USED to be a haven for elk, eagles, and every kind of bird, bug, and mammal. Those days are long gone, due to human overpopulation.
@IanSizzler6 ай бұрын
It will be fine once we are gone.
@a.randomjack66616 ай бұрын
@@chinookvalley It's not over population, it's over consumption We consume 1,4 of the planet's renewable resources per year If everyone lived like us (average Americans, we'd consume more than 4 of those per year. One example "8 men own as much wealth as half of humans" OXFAM and they all got o Davos. "Inverted society: we put the people with most severe antisocial behavior psychopathy/narcissism/sociopathy in charge, because they care about profits, not people " Saying s't overpopulation makes us think it's because of some "them" not us.
@jonr11386 ай бұрын
Sadly I think we are a day late and a dollar short. KZfaq still has droves of climate change deniers. We don’t even have a consensus to take actions that are aggressive and substantial to mitigate the problems. So things will just get worse.
@europaeuropa36736 ай бұрын
Been monitoring South Africa temps which appear to be below normal so far this year. Must look at the volcano below the Antarctic.
@jbyrd6555 ай бұрын
Too bad we can't see the presentation. 'Looks' like it might be interesting...
You're either mad or a genius. No idea what this means but let's hope it is a potential solution as something needs to be done 😊
@edstauffer4266 ай бұрын
The data shows that there may be an additional cause for global warming which may also have much less time lag and so faster remediation. This is an ALSO not an instead of GHG controls. If it turns out we can control the temperature of the planet by adjusting the dark matter flow only then do you reevaluate the big picture! The data says the lag time from the sun to the temperature at the poles is about 60 days!! If we prove we can control the temperature of the planet by either redirecting or vaporizing Liquid dark matter then we can think about harnessing that heat or redirecting it to Mars to kick start its magnetic field field or if nothing else warm it up. Alternatively if the earth cools to much we could siphon some from Venus to warm the planet. Assuming the vaporization is done around L1 we could see the change in a week. Redirecting from Venus would take longer. All of the planets in the solar system are showing signs of heating up. Dark matter phase transitions could be a primary climate driver. If the solar system passes through an area of higher liquid dark matter content the planets cores would all receive more heat due to increased phase transitions thus heating the earth from the inside out. The dark matter content may even be virtually the same but the fact that we are facing into the hurricane may increase it’s effects. Heating of the planet from the inside out would result in : Increased ground temperatures Increased sea temperatures Increased nighttime temperatures Increased seismic activity Increased earthquakes We are currently passing through the S1 dark Matter stream. At the winter solstice the earth goes from moving with the S1 stream to moving into it. Dec 12 2016 Venus Mercury alignment tsunami rotation slowed Dec1 2018 Venus Mercury alignment tsunami rotation slowed June 3 18:00 2020 +0 29 North Venus Earth conjunction VENUS TSUNAMI facing the Earth day 1 July 2020 Siberian heatwave and Antarctica temperature spike Feb 11 2021 ice storm in Texas - this may be due to an offset of the dark matter sphere as it shifts after the winter solstice resulting in the movement of the zero G spot to an area of gaseous dark matter which means less internal heat until the dark matter sphere regains equilibrium. Jan 9 01:00 2022 +4 51 North Venus Earth conjunction VENUS TSUNAMI facing the Earth and the planets were slightly closer than the last conjunction 585 days March 18 2022 Concordia Station spiked 39 C degrees due to unusual air patterns near Australia North Pole regions hit 30C above normal Jan 30 2022 ice storm in Texas Aug 13 11:00 2023 -7 41 south Venus Earth conjunction VENUS TSUNAMI was past the outward deflection and on its way back 1166 days also Venus was south of the orbital plane Oct 28 predict a major heat release in the Arctic and Antarctic due to combined tidal affects on the dark matter sphere around the sun in combination with the movement of the barycentre of the Earths location. VENUS TSUNAMI was facing the side and the distance between the planets was further DATES TO WATCH for tsunami rotation ?? Pre and post rotation rates are needed Jan 16-25. 2024 Mercury Venus alignment Mar 07-20 2024 Mercury Jupiter alignment Venus Mars alignment Apr 11-18 2024 Mercury Earth alignment Jupiter Uranus alignment May 20-28 Venus Jupiter Uranus alignment Mercury Mars Saturn ? Neptune ? June 15-23 Mercury Venus alignment Venus atmospheric temperatures from 2009-2017 also were higher after conjunctions Venus atmospheric rotation takes 4 days - atmospheric tsunami takes on average 5 (4.9?) days to circle Venus since 1986 this could be caused by an offset dark mater sphere as a result of wobble induced by overflow of LDM every 5 days when the sphere is closest to the sun. This departing kick is what keeps the offset between Venus and its dark matter sphere which then accumulates LDM for 5 more days. The interval from the data I found varies from 4-6 days the 6 day stretch was after the 2022 conjunction which may have depleted its dark matter reserves resulting in a slower tsunami rotation. The clouds at that level take 5.7 days to circle the planet (tsunami speed = 328 kph) The earths core also has an 8.47 day astronomically induced wobble.(LDM sphere) NASA issued a climate change warning for Mars after Mariner 9 (icecaps melting) Neptune has been heating up since 2018
@marcellaobdrzalek84356 ай бұрын
Small detail, but Mars icecaps are frozen CO2, so they do not melt, they sublimate (ie: they go directly from a solid to a gas)
@a.randomjack66616 ай бұрын
You do know dark matter is only a hypothesis? We have never found any evidence of it, despite all the experiments we tried. We see gravitational anomalies in deep space we "believe" might be caused by dark matter, which has many hypothetical candidates, but it could be something like large scale spacetime reticulation (another hypothesis). You should drop reading fiction, seriously! On the other hand, why don't you go drill ice cores in Uranus.
@DrSmooth20006 ай бұрын
@@marcellaobdrzalek8435 there is also water ice mixed in, and briney lakes kept liquid by pressure of ice above
@DrSmooth20006 ай бұрын
How would we be able to transfer energy between planets atmospheres??
@grindupBaker5 ай бұрын
"If it turns out we can control the temperature of the planet by adjusting the dark matter flow" == drivel
@daveandrews96346 ай бұрын
The planet is warming and has been since the little ice age. You obviously get new high temperature records naturally over time. This research does not include the information on atmospheric river frequency during the first half of the 20th century which demonstrates that the is a natural effect that has occurred in the past independent of CO2 influence.
@a.randomjack66616 ай бұрын
The "little ice age" was so little, it only affected a few parts of the globe, like northern Europe and some random spots along the North East of Murica.
@DrSmooth20006 ай бұрын
@@a.randomjack6661 that's where literate and early science was at the time.
@grindupBaker5 ай бұрын
Negligible warming from 6,000 years ago until 1924 CE. Less than 0.30 degrees of warming from 6,000 years ago until 1924 CE.
@a.randomjack66615 ай бұрын
@@grindupBaker As far as paléoclimatologie goes, the planet has never warmed this fast. nor as CO2 increased this fast, EVER! Stop shitting people.
@a.randomjack66615 ай бұрын
@@grindupBaker #ExxonKnew way back in the 1970's that to keep on burning fossil fueels, the climate would warm and the oceans would acidify. It's basic Physics and basic Chemistry.