📉 Are Hedge Funds Unwinding the BTC Carry Trade? 🔄

Рет қаралды 56,924

Күн бұрын

#Bitcoin #hedgefunds #FundingRates #CarryTrade #TA #OnChain #Liquidity #PostHalving
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DISCLAIMER: InvestAnswers does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. None of the content on the InvestAnswers channels is financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be taken as such; the content is intended only for educational and entertainment purposes. InvestAnswers (James) shares some of his trades as learning examples but they are only relevant to his specific portfolio allocation, risk tolerance & financial expertise, may not constitute a comprehensive or complete discussion of such topics, and should not be emulated. The content of this video is solely the opinion(s) of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading equities or cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. Kindly use your judgment and do your own research at all times. You are solely responsible for your own financial, investing, and trading decisions.
0:00 Introduction
1:15 BTC Monthly Returns
1:45 Day 110 Raw Numbers
2:05 ETF Macro Update
2:15 6 out of 7 Days in the Red
2:47 Yesterday 2,339 BTC Added to the System
3:19 GBTC - Hedge Funds Played This ETF
3:56 Blackrock Quietly Stacking
4:15 Blackrock Doing $1BN in Volume… No Change
5:06 Most Funding Rates Heading Down
5:43 Shorts Exposed
6:19 Open Interest Dropping Across the Board
6:54 Funding Rates Dropping Also
7:29 Breaking: Hedge Funds Reducing Exposure Fast!
8:18 Hedge Funds Hedge!
9:26 Funding Rates Turn Negative Briefly
9:48 What Happens After Funding Rates Turn Negative?
11:07 Post Halving Status plus Post Halving Status - Previous Cycles
13:20 Critical STH RP $63,823 HOLDING - hit $64,020
14:12 Sideways Chop After 18 Mths of Up Only!
15:00 Liquidity Incoming in 10 Days
15:50 Breaking: DXY Rejected at Range High
16:31 Conclusion: Bullish Due to Too many Tailwinds

Пікірлер: 143

@ethanschnier7400 8 күн бұрын

Was listening to this as I was doing some work and was STUNNED to hear my name. HAHA, James you're a legend

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

Thanks for listening

@chewiewins 7 күн бұрын

Thanks James. My only 'stress' is lack of funds to buy more Bitcoin at this price

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

Ahhh u scaredy-cat use margin! Just a little not financial advice

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

My ball are drawing on the ground.but not my first cycle

@michaelberico7141 7 күн бұрын

James, you're still my favorite analyst on the net! You always make sense as to what's happening with BTC! Thank you!! Gradually, then slowly!!

@KYFHOme 8 күн бұрын

It seems like we are always looking for narratives to explain price action (or lack thereof). I'm guilty of this too and I'm trying to quit. But what else is there to do? Maybe the HODLers are right, just stack and relax. But even they must take profits to live well, which is the whole point....

@Hitngan 7 күн бұрын

Hodlers in the UK are taxed on profit if they sell btc at the 40 to 50% rate, so it's not worth taking profits.

@msbeecee1 7 күн бұрын

Hoslwrs dotn base their lifestyle on BTC ....they live off earned income and hold BTC for retirement

@darrellwilliams1510 8 күн бұрын

James, Thanks for your consistency - through the peaks & valleys always plugging away!!

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

You bet!

@aslan-og 8 күн бұрын

I think you are right about the unwind, I just hope they are not looking to reload lower

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

we shall see - but the trade does not work with low funding rates

@danielbarrett9619 8 күн бұрын

‘Hedge-FUD’, another perfect Freudian slip 😂

@HerrZitrone 7 күн бұрын

😂

@NathanSmith-ng7xf 8 күн бұрын

Wall Street+ETF’s= manipulation. BTC decentralised? 🤷🏼‍♂️ or am I way off?

@JamoonXerxesSauber 4 күн бұрын

Exactly!! Hopefully KAS doesn't go that way one day. The fact the team behind it actively aimed to design a trilemma solver hopefully means it won't. It's why I took some BTC last year and put it in KAS. As a sort of hedge. KAS already shown some independence.

@TotalRageAtl 8 күн бұрын

Won't find knowledge of data anywhere else

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

🙌

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

Don't look at the after show you may be surprised

@user-xk2rx5gz8f 8 күн бұрын

Thank you, James! Interesting!

@RyanBauer7SOE 8 күн бұрын

Appreciate you, your data, your energy & your commitment James 😌🤝🏼

@MJLGEE 7 күн бұрын

Thank you, James. Love listening to you!

@rhaled99 8 күн бұрын

Thanks to the fam (love and respect!)

@konstantinoszir8223 8 күн бұрын

Many greetings from Greece ❤

@Luke-xt8dg 7 күн бұрын

Thank you very much James!!👍🏻👍🏻

@wailenglow7790 7 күн бұрын

Thank you James and team. Always appreciated

@tonyholroyd1942 7 күн бұрын

I like your theory James. Thanks

@AlexOdalisca 8 күн бұрын

Thanks James!

@jarrodmcgehee4829 8 күн бұрын

Thank you for the content

@salemsludge 8 күн бұрын

James!!!!!!!! Rocks !!!!!

@Garce227 8 күн бұрын

Thanks James

@SteevWho 8 күн бұрын

We could, but as long as Bitcoin chops around, and Tourists have left the building, there is not enough liquidity around to hold up alts. On top of that Bitcoins dominance is going up, so alts are going to keep bleeding out. I would assume most people that watch your channel are in alts, not Bitcoin. So expect Max Pain, in alts.

@therealpg777 8 күн бұрын

actually btc dominance has dropped over 1% and nearly fallen out the falling wedge in thelast 24 hours....

@Thelifeofswans 8 күн бұрын

My view is alot of BTC holders moved profits to Alts way too early and should have kept with BTC until at least September. When BTC dips they are basically losing more profits than if they had stuck with BTC. When Alts bottom around Oct I'll buy some then.

@therealpg777 7 күн бұрын

@@Thelifeofswans good luck waitin.til oct.... and getting a better price than yesterday

@KerstinMcKitrick 8 күн бұрын

“What do I know” 😂😂😂. Good one. 😎

@mgm77-og7eu 8 күн бұрын

4:20 : Something is not right -26 000 IBIT shares x $37 is less then 1 million, not 1 billion.....Maybe i misunderstood something?

@terryburke9868 8 күн бұрын

The goal post move all the time

@armandopiedra4913 8 күн бұрын

I learn so much here ,

@jamesstever8335 8 күн бұрын

Welcome to Wall Street!

@bitcoinpoemspro1406 7 күн бұрын

Thx James

@jarrodmcgehee4829 8 күн бұрын

Thanks!

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

No problem!

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

🎉

@southbayproducts5371 8 күн бұрын

Hi James good day God Bless

@intelligentcomputing 7 күн бұрын

Thanks James. ;)

@amraverageproduction5379 7 күн бұрын

I thought the etf’s weren’t supposed to effect the actual bitcoin? Allegedly…..

@jonschlottig9584 7 күн бұрын

Great as always!

@alejandrovillanueva5386 8 күн бұрын

Fantastic content James! Markets have become my most beloved drug since I watch your channel. Thank You so much always James

@Bitcoinstheway 7 күн бұрын

Thanks James 👍☕️

@rhondathompson5960 7 күн бұрын

Thanks James, I don’t feel as anxious now after watching all your charts and data

@Judge247 7 күн бұрын

Thx for more great content and analysis, James. Why wouldn’t the current price action be regarded as simply a (bullish) consolidation pattern? As you said, there’s an onslaught of outflows by short term players, yet BTC is still holding relatively steady at 65k.

@philipbotes 8 күн бұрын

Hi James, this is a bit of an unrelated question. I hear a lot of talk that into the future the main constraint for thr AI play is energy and we see this already playing out with the HPC play in the miners, but are you aware of or looking into any energy companies that might benefit from this as well?

@BatmanBoss 8 күн бұрын

Thanks buddy

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

No problem 👍

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

OK boss you have a great weekend

@vv247 8 күн бұрын

Great stuff. The DXY moves with demand for $$ so for example when rates rise demand for $'s rises to buy higher yielding treasuries in USD. When the FED turns dovish and rates drop the DXY goes down due to less demand for $$ to buy lower yielding treasuries. One could guess if there's less demand for $$, those dollars are going somewhere else, stocks, BTC etc driving up Bitcoin and you get a neg correlation. Just my guess !!??

@thedumbfounder 8 күн бұрын

Why does Arthur Hayes think APTOS is the SOL killer?

@patrickhohmann9163 7 күн бұрын

just valuable content!

@ShadowBoxer5669 8 күн бұрын

ty for the kpm, guy on the internet

@Gitman333 8 күн бұрын

They Didn't understand the asset going in. They don't understand going out. And they won't understand when they are left behind.

@bigntasty1026 7 күн бұрын

Keep up the good work.......

@Jesus_Lied_ReadTheBible 8 күн бұрын

Just like gold and silver etfs do not keep a one to one with physical gold/silver neither do bitcoin etfs need to keep one to one custodial bitcoin.

@chrisguthrie9493 7 күн бұрын

Just incredible

@QuadTap 8 күн бұрын

Hash ribbon doing dot things sir

@nickmancini11 7 күн бұрын

If the hedge funds are buying and shorting, how would the “lid” be lifted if they stop? Seems like it would be no change but less flows, no?

@suuuunfranz 8 күн бұрын

Hi James, I'm sure the shorts we saw were in preparation for the ETH ETF. People are selling BTC and other alts to get ready for that. ETH has rebounded well, too.

@defaultdefault812 7 күн бұрын

Nothing burger.

@Ambassador_Gkar 7 күн бұрын

"Just a guy on the internet," with 30+ years of trading experience; in one form, or another. You're my kind of internet guy, James.

@nathanielschroeder1321 7 күн бұрын

Serious question: What has to happen for this to not be considered a Bull Market anymore?

@Gafizal1 8 күн бұрын

Hey, I subcribe and watch a lot, thank you! Question: You've mentioned that besides crypto you use options. I wonder about the idea of options on BITX this is a leveraged front of the month futures ETF for bTC which currently also pays 25% annual dividend (monthly) ... Seems to me I can get 4-6 X the movement of BTC using options on this asset... thoughts? Maybe a good way for new folks to get capital increase with which to buy BTC, since in upswing it will outperform BTC by definition and then adding the options benefit to make money go further it's even better than just buying shares... thoughts? thanks!

@bfisher1882 8 күн бұрын

Zooming out .... looks like Bitcoin multi-cycle priceline trajectory will either roll over ... or find support & go into hyper price mode.... just saying 🤑

@user-mg9lw4oy7l 8 күн бұрын

Love you James. HODL!!

@gw6056 8 күн бұрын

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps

@rebelpan9269 6 күн бұрын

I have been saying this since months ago, upkeep going on about etf and the halving, I keep saying funds look ahead and buy ahead and now demand not as strong they dumb, but you choose to ignore any negatives and not have a balance view. Good luck

@RDebski 8 күн бұрын

Looks like beginning to make bearish things seem to look like their bullish..

@Gitt945 8 күн бұрын

Liked❤.

@InvestAnswers 8 күн бұрын

Thanks for liking

@p38cobra 8 күн бұрын

$60 Thousand is support but I’m holding to 50

@pack44 6 күн бұрын

Sir, you mentioned Options one day, specifically $20 Call options for Mara in June. I ask- how is that going for you, sir?

@gloriamariadc7757 8 күн бұрын

🙌🏻🙌🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻✨🙌🏻🙌🏻

@dripta 7 күн бұрын

have you accumulated any SMLR?

@brianhope4236 8 күн бұрын

Well, hedge funds always were good at gambling with other people’s money!

@jaredbaker5887 8 күн бұрын

I listened to both 12 second adds.... for you.

@HFLC 7 күн бұрын

Can you please check your mike? I always have to use an external speakers just to hear you talk and my volume is at a max. However, my speaker suddenly screams on commercials (ads).

@pmg2120 7 күн бұрын

I’ve never had a problem hearing him.

@AlphaHarbinger 8 күн бұрын

You think this is all due to manipulation, but have you seen the COPPER and USDJPY chart? This is why smart money is taking profits.

@cheriehuntress7551 8 күн бұрын

BANKING NEWS: US Bank no longer allows transfers from checking or savings to Coinbase or any other crypto platform. They don’t allow wires either.

@Huntress101 7 күн бұрын

I didn’t know if I should hit the like on this comment or not! Time to move banks!

@nathanielschroeder1321 7 күн бұрын

ETF. Halving. Eth officially a Comodity. Hedge Funds invest big. Prices in steady decline.

@WilyLEETIII 7 күн бұрын

Outstanding presentation------ °°°°° cogent & succinct, fantisimo! THANKS for all your hard work dedicated to helping blind plebs like me!

@Ambassador_Gkar 7 күн бұрын

Whistling Dixie (DXY) = 🚀BTC

@BrianHi-sf8hb 8 күн бұрын

The money and Bitcoin simply moving from Greyscale to Fidelity, etc. along with option manipulation make all ETF modeling useless. But still a canary in the coal mine and the hedge funds now see the canary gasping for breath. Bitcoin usually is not affected by halvings for at least 7 months. Its nonsense its 60 days or 90 days after a halving so please do not listen to that. Accumulate for next 6 months as it drops and jumps around and you will be rewarded in 2025

@brucemasson 7 күн бұрын

Everyone selling BTC for TSLA. They watch your videos.

@benhartart9487 8 күн бұрын

“ We don’t need no FIAT” bo bo ba bo bo “We don’t need no Politicians “ ba ba bo bo

@_dan_here_ 8 күн бұрын

ETH ETF

@nealobrien9066 8 күн бұрын

When will Michael S make his 700M purchase ? Surely that will have a positive impact

@superfurryjelly 7 күн бұрын

You won't see him I'm the market....big fishes like him don't want the price to move while they accumulate, he talks about it openly....they have bots buying and buying v small amounts for days at a time

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

Fun fact kids mike dell started Dell with 1000.00

@keepersofandromeda7512 7 күн бұрын

I believe Operational Shorting & Delta-Gamma Hedging is happening on a massive scale with regards to BTC, ETH, and SOL. The range-bound movement, interval-based LL/LS wipeouts, and current price compression levels on BTC are the #1 indicator of external manipulation, which requires a deeper look into how this is happening and where it is rooted.

@p38cobra 8 күн бұрын

How much unwinding? We’re over +140% for a year! Let things cool off some and ready for the run this fall

@BrianHi-sf8hb 8 күн бұрын

Most of the "increase" is probably 120% of money and Bitcoin dumping from Grayscale and moved to Fidelity. So it's not 140% increase since 120% is Bitcoin being moved from one place to another. In short, it's like moving $200 from Wells Fargo to Bank of America. You've still got the same amount u started with.

@d.r.s.6557 8 күн бұрын

Told you, etfs are paperhands

@wojak86 8 күн бұрын

bitcoin pumps on full moons! howl at the moon my fellow wolves

@swedeinla 8 күн бұрын

Every KZfaqr was praising blackrock as the new messiah. Have none of you heard of Blackrock and the kind of business dealing they have been involved in for years? If BTC needs etf’s to survive, then it has already failed.

@jonbellard-lg5gq 7 күн бұрын

I’d swap all btc for ltc!!

@brandoncrittendon-ek5mz 7 күн бұрын

$FALX what cereal do you eat?

@robbensalyers3318 7 күн бұрын

In my opinion, a lot of these ETF holders will be heading back into the miners. The miners are starting to break out. Bitfarm is in play for a takeover.

@p38cobra 8 күн бұрын

I’m an avid follower of James IA but I also follow Bob Loukas who presents with acumen and steady confident context analysis and have to say the combination of these 2 is superb

@WakingLife24 7 күн бұрын

If BTC is so easy to manipulate then maybe it isn’t so hard after all. Prime example of the greater fool theory.

@jonbellard-lg5gq 8 күн бұрын

Ltc is gonna pump !!!

@sartorialhobo1250 6 күн бұрын

Apologies, please don’t take this the wrong way, as I do very much respect your work, and am one of your Patrion supporters, but I cannot figure out why you keep referring $64-$63,000 as I’m sure technical analysts would agree that at best the floor, is between $63,000 and $62,000, and at worst could be as low as $45,000. By the look of the double top, created over the last few weeks, and the loss of support at $64,000, it is looking increasingly likely that we are in for a pullback. If $60,000 is lost, there is some support at $52,000, which could provide a spring.

@unknownuser1215 7 күн бұрын

I think btc back to mid 50s

@sirjeffrey222 7 күн бұрын

Wen lambo

@rudycampbell1032 6 күн бұрын

To the blood moon. Bitcoin reaches all time low on stochastic chart. This phenomena happened only four times before in history. Each led to 75% crash. Perhaps, something followers would like to know more about.

@leighcouper4594 7 күн бұрын

hi James. I reckon their scared of Michael Saylor buying more BTC. $800 million.

@starrycoyote 7 күн бұрын

:):):)

@sphinx1017 7 күн бұрын

I'm loosing my bitcoin excitement

@jase7322 7 күн бұрын

Good we need people like you

@Digitaldgen-yi3qk 8 күн бұрын

James has so much egg on his face its unreal

@everythingcrypto8206 5 күн бұрын

Need bread anyone

@Digitaldgen-yi3qk 5 күн бұрын

@@everythingcrypto8206 lol

@Digitaldgen-yi3qk 5 күн бұрын

@@everythingcrypto8206 i really like his content he just needs to keep a lid on it when market pumps and try sort of stay consistent emotionally, instead of shouting for a 10k god candle after btc moves a couple of hundred dollars on stream.

@fastfuria8631 7 күн бұрын

Like if you think the top is in☝🏼

@Jade10Wolf 8 күн бұрын

Let's not forget that MSTR will be buying 700M, so that would explain why hedge funds are pulling back on their shorts AND it is just shy of the ETF dumpage.