Want to become a better investor? Check out our free newsletter: bit.ly/NanalyzeWeeklyYT

I have tremendous trouble imagining TSLA being smaller 5 to 10 years from now as EV adoption increases worldwide. They may only sell vehicles, but their charging stations are standard and their streamlined production is top quality including inhouse tech development for batteries and engineering. I have no idea if ARK's price target is correct, I just know that in 5 to 10 years if Tesla isn't much higher in value they have either really screwed up their business somehow or the macro environment has collapsed which means we'll have a lot of stocks on sale.

thank you for a down to Earth analysis and for giving us so much value

I always enjoy your videos. Straight n factual. No BS.

Your review, analysis & commentary is insightful.

Great decomposition! Thanks!

As always, love your videos - truly some of the best analysis on KZfaq. Thank you! I've spent a lot of timing traveling and living in Asia. Rove the Chinese menu approach and subtle corumn A and corumn B - that made my entire day. :)

Just what I need at this moment! Thank you.

Really appreciate your analysis and channel. Breaking down your thought process has made me a better investor 😊

Thanks for the analysis Joe. So all in ARK's evaluation is depending on Tesla solving Full Self Driving. Which is what I believe isn't possible with their vision-only approach. Remember L5 (SAE) autonomous driving means everywhere and anytime, in any condition. Right now, Tesla FSD is shutting itself off in heavy fog, my guess is it will do the same in heavy snow storms where in both cases cameras won't be enough. They need Lidar/Radar as combination ideally as both sensors have their strengths and weaknesses. So Tesla's future value will be dependent on Musk changing his approach on FSD and acknowledge that vision-only isn't enough for L5. Even then we haven't talked about the inference constraints that HW3 has that is build into almost all Tesla models sold so far. Whilst the idea of submitting the Tesla to the fleet is nice on paper, it succeeds or fails with the ability to run a vision-only based model on HW3. If that's not enough (both from a vision-only based approach as I pointed out or from the HW3 inference constraints) then Tesla's future EPS is far away from ARK's target. Simple as that. No need to dive further into the sourcecode as you have shown that yourself in your video already what 0 revenue from Robotaxi or ride-hailing service would do. Certainly not lead to a share price of $2,600. Thanks for the hard work in your channel, it's appreciated.

As someone being bullish on Tesla it’s really hard finding well-informed content considering the bear case as well. Great content 🫡

Each Megapack battery factory has close to 10,000 batteries sold a year…$20 billion in revenue . They will have two factories by end of year. $40 billion total revenue in 2025 with 20% margins. What’s that worth stand alone?

Wonder if ARK does these monte carlo on every company what would be the value of the stock market in 2029? 500 trillion ?

Super thx.

Could you do a video reviewing Ark's old Zoom model, detailing how it did not live up to the projections?

Column A an Column B got me rolling on the floor

Great review! Glad I have shares in the company. Hopefully pays off and helps me get my family out of the rat race.

Party On Joe! 🥳🥳✌️✌️

Tsla is the best stock to trade volatility. I average down and sell after the stock rocket up (whenever Elon farts). I'm an Ex- long term holder.

ARK is not what I would call a "reliable source"

Thanks for the great video. I definitely learned something here, today. Tesla flooding Central Asia with EV's? Who'd have thought it? Good to see ARK's methodology being explored in more detail than is usual, despite her having such a high media profile. So the bull model appears to depend on FSD reaching full regulatory approval, and cyber-taxi rollout happening not later than Q4 2023 and to the maximum extent permitted by 80% production capacity growth? I'm not clear on which territories that this is expected to take place, but I presume that this would be expected to take place proportionally and worldwide unless otherwise stated, right? Leaving aside the often repeated reality that Elon Musk is almost always... err... "enthusiastically optimistic" on project delivery timescales, regulatory change isn't ever going to happen outside the US at reliable rates, so unless they've really done their homework on how approval timescales are likely to differ internationally on a territory-by-territory basis and made the appropriate adjustments, then I can't see the basis for placing any confidence in this model. The UK and Europe will take forever to do it, if at all; for example, in the place I call home, Uber are forbidden from operating across multiple local jurisdictions, leaving Tesla without an "in" to supply such service operators with autonomous taxis, regardless of the status of FSD approval. You can bet that this hurdle is widely more common in the rest of the world than it is in the US, due to more commonplace existence of unionised state operators. In China, all of their business will remain dependent on both geopolitics, and the practical requirement that Tesla can provide a product and service to the state that that CCP can't replicate internally. The moment it can, there's a historical risk that Musk and Tesla will come under increasing internal political pressure with the to the benefit of domestic competition - particularly if US tariffs on Chinese EV's remain in place. Could it happen by 2027? I'm sure BYD et al will be working to make that a reality. As for the rest of Tesla's business providing any similar growth value, it'll have to do so largely without the first mover/quasi-monopolistic advantage that it enjoys within the US EV market, whilst all the while being subject to Musk's irresistible penchant for diverting resources towards providing answers to questions that nobody has asked. Robots for all, and Hyperloop, anyone? At least for the sake of Tesla's stakeholders, he's keeping bases on Mars under the SpaceX umbrella. I actually like Elon Musk, but cheap-shots aside, surely he's both Tesla's greatest opportunity and their greatest risk? I just don't think that even the most sophisticated and well-researched models can factor out such uncertainties, and this will always create the suspicion that Momma Cathie isn't doing a whole lot more than citing best-case outcomes to exploit the associated PR. With all due respect, she'll always get criticism for the fact that ARK's financial risk management demonstrably hasn't been on point, although I note she's just trimmed ARK's Tesla position prior to earnings - so maybe there's hope for her yet...!

I'm starting to think you and Cathy are dating ;)

I love this channel! From someone that has two different portfolios, one strictly for hyper growth stocks and a DGI portfolio, I appreciate that he covers both types of investments. $TSLA is my biggest individual holding on my growth portfolio following the core position QQQ

Dude, where's my car?

I worry Elons political involvement could hurt tesla if he's not careful. Yet I've seen the opposite so far, other factors are helping telsa they are a powerful company. but unless they are different from other companies, that all tend to fall when becoming increasingly political. We should see a reversion back to the mean.

I wonder what surveys and projections have been done to get a sense of what percentage of Tesla owners would likely join the ride-hail service program. Some of the concerns people have mentioned include wear and tear, cleanliness and damage issues, depreciation due to high mileage, higher maintenance costs, insurance liability, etc.. What happens when a vehicle needs to be charged during service? Will the vehicles return to their owner's home or driven to a designated area where someone will charge the vehicles. Perhaps, the charging stations need to be automated, so that no humans are needed to charge the vehicles. Maybe in the future Tesla batteries will be able to be swapped out like that of some Chinese auto makers. It's too early to say if the hail-ride program will be successful or not, but there are certainly a lot of potential issues that need to be ironed out.

I don’t think valuations are necessarily off, BUT CUSTOMER SERVICE FAILURE is destroying the shine of Tesla as it is Google, Microsoft, Facebook and as I noted Adobe as a host of others. This customer service failure spreads over all of Musk’s companies. The other issue is “ownership” vs. service fee. ADA lawsuits will entangle these companies because they fail to fully meet ADA accommodation requirements. IF TESLA EMBRACES FIXING CUSTOMER SERVICE AND ADA IT HAS TOOLS TO DI IT WELL.

Been away for a couple of weeks. Really enjoying catching up on all your analysis. Lots of stories now about Musk funding the Republicans and pandering to Trump online. Maybe he's doing it with a specific purpose in mind? Like you said he needs sweeping and disruptive regulatory changes for autonomy.

How a world full of Luddites expect to grasp the ARKs, let alone expect them to take some linear ramp is amusing to me. These are the same people that think Palantir is a fancy, magical spreadsheet 😂😂😂 Admittedly, I wasn't paying Disruptive Technology ANY attention then my cousin and his wife bought a TESLA and we discussed it in 2018. Then I went home and watched the annual "TESLA AUTONOMY" presentation and was impressed. That's how I happened across Cathie Wood giving a presentation in Australia in which she described Moore's Law v. Wright's Law and the convergence of technologies. Not long after I started suggesting to friends that they try to spend the next 5 years buying $5,ooo worth of ARK and took my own advice.

Yeh but…the largest market in the world for cars 30 million per year is China and China want robo taxis!!! Regulations in China will be supportive and not an obstacle as in the USA.

This has old news more typical of a year old video.

But how low will it go first when our current recession is discovered?

Who knows what Elon will come up with in the coming years!

… you’re mispronouncing the word “pundits”. You’re welcome..

Why I invest in Tesla? Because Elon Musk is a real genius who knows what to do and his business that deals with human existence in the universe.

I don['t like it when a bloated egotistical "loose canon" is running a company.Swtiching gears, could you revisit another Cathi stock ZOOM? You did a review 2 years ago -time for an update? thanks!

I stopped buying TSLA shares when Elon chose to deprioritize Tesla and spend his time, his efforts and a lot of money on a private company. I'm just holding and watching. His personal life and political leanings do nothing good for Tesla

Tesla will figure out how to MONETIZE the Robo-Taxi fleets : )

Man I used to think you know what you’re talking about

Tesla are nowhere near offering a Robotaxi service, their Full Self Driving-Supervised is a level 2 system and they don't yet compete in the Robotaxi market, and when they do, they will be at least two years behind Waymo, Cruise and Baidu. As for private vehicles being added ad-hoc to the Tesla RoboTaxi fleet, has anyone considered what an administrative burden that would be? If it were a responsible service, each vehicle before being added to the fleet would have to be checked to ensure that it was charged, clean, safe and road worthy. Who would pay for that, Tesla or the Customer? While vehicles were adopted within the Robotaxi fleet, control of the vehicle would have to be transferred to Tesla for the duration, and when returned to the owner, vehicles would have to go through a post-service check, with any damage recorded and repaired, once again who pays for the post-service check? Then there is the whole priority issue, when there is a ride, does it go to first to Tesla's own RoboTaxi fleet or the customer fleet? With pre and post checks, Tesla owners have the potential to lose money. If Tesla's future is dependent on their Full Self Driving generating income, even Waymo, who have been offering a Robotaxi service for five years have yet to turn a profit, and GM and VW have already come to the conclusion that it isn't a profitable business model. Cathy Wood has no technical knowledge about the service she is so bullish about, her projection is pure fantasy. It is shocking that Nanalyze, who are normally very conservative in their valuations, even gives it the time of day.

Key to be in Tesla: PATIENCE!