Discussing Our Exact Sciences Valuation

Рет қаралды 9,163

Жыл бұрын

Today, Tasha Keeney sits down with Simon Barnett to talk about ARK's valuation of Exact Sciences and to share our outlook about the company's trajectory in the next five years. Exact Sciences is the cancer testing company that has brought to market both Cologuard and Oncotype. This conversation covers the prominence and acceptance of these two testing franchises, Exact Sciences' product leadership, Exact’s recent performance in the market, the models that ARK has developed for gauging the company's outlook, and the areas of risk that investors should be aware of. One of the main focuses of today's chat is what Exact Sciences' progress symbolizes in terms of the future of the cancer treatment field, with Simon making an argument for why he sees them holding onto their market-leading position for the foreseeable future. We also spend some time at the end of the episode considering what this means for healthcare and individual wellbeing in general, so make sure to catch it all in this episode of For Your Innovation! Please refer to the Exact Sciences valuation article for a more comprehensive explanation of ARK's model, including its risks and limitations, here: ark-invest.com/articles/valua...
Key Points From This Episode:
- Introducing Exact Sciences and its two biggest testing franchises: Cologuard and Oncotype.
- Valuation of Exact Sciences and how ARK has approached creating these models.
- Calculations for the price target of the company.
- Sales and marketing at Exact Sciences and the positive brand recognition they have built.
- Benchmarks for analyzing companies like Exact Sciences.
- Comparing ARK's process and view on Exact Sciences to other opinions in the market.
- How the lowered price of genome sequencing has affected the outlook for the market.
- The route to the aggregate gross margin structure for Exact Sciences.
- Qualitative elements that matter most to ARK; how Exact Science fits into our rubric.
- Alignment between the expectations of Exact Science's management and our estimations.
- A look at the three main areas of risk: competition, time, and financing.
- Simon explains how thesis risk applies to the healthcare space.
- Thoughts on the company's net income and cash flow in the near future
- Reasons to be excited about the next few years in the healthcare space.
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Пікірлер: 18

@susymay7831 Жыл бұрын

Timestamps would help your nice videos! 🙂

@tonysimi5763 Жыл бұрын

Thanks for your excellent presentation. Tough area for me to invest in due to it's complexity. I think you did excellent job of explaining your findings to us the laymen investors. Im halfway through I'll have to return later. Ill let it finish to help the algorithm.

@norbertbajgyik1607 Жыл бұрын

I m really happy that testing got so advanced but when will cure be so advanced????

@eliosb989 Жыл бұрын

Thank you guys 👍

@DavidARuchcoach Жыл бұрын

Thank you. Great job

@sliceofheaven3026 Жыл бұрын

Seems that between 2021 and 2022 the stock of this company went down about 50%. According to one article the company suffers from a lack of viable new ways to test cancer patients and it is speculated in the article that a bigger biotech company might buy the company. Also according to new ai based search Ark Invest owns about 14 million shares of this company atm. According to same ai search the loss of Ark Invest at the moment with this particular stock is about 36%.

@MJB0328 Жыл бұрын

Why sell 2 mil shares of TDOC and not post that in trade desk? And still think they will be 3000/share? Because you said 10x at 300. Now it’s 20.

@TheEurymonae Жыл бұрын

Nice commentary and explanation on your investment case with Exact Sciences. One red flag for me is though, that your are selling Exact Sciences shares in the last couple of weeks. Can you elaborate on that?

@205rider8 Жыл бұрын

Exact had a run up in value. Ark constantly sells investments when they exceed pre determined percentages of the portfolio. If a stock drops, they load up to match to the desired percentage.

@eric2394 7 ай бұрын

Does anyone know why Simon left arkk?

@user-fh9mq3ux4n Жыл бұрын

Bob the illusionist has no magic : A thousand years hence :The telephone and the motion picture camera may become obsolete , but the principle of rotating magnetic fields will remain for all time to come .

@chrisheath2637 Жыл бұрын

There are many unknown geniuses who changed the future of the world. One was James Clerk Maxwell. He probably never imagined that his ideas would create a trillion dollar industry...more than a century later...

@mrspeigle1 Жыл бұрын

I hate EBITDA, EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Those things are supposed to be factored.

@afrocraft1 10 ай бұрын

For mature businesses, yes. You'll never be able to get a sense of the true operating performance of a business, especially a rapidly growing one, when you include the impacts of financial engineering and capital investments.

@GreenisYellow Жыл бұрын

Was that a wedding ring on Tasha ?

@mathildeottele1320 Жыл бұрын

We just launched world of dance. Which is kind of a big latex bet. Look forward to hear you back. Peace. Bye.

@enr3334 Жыл бұрын

And yet ARL unloaded a lot of this companies’ shares? Hmmm!

@snowywinter9 3 ай бұрын

They haven't shown a single success story with their liquid biopsy portfolio. Not one. Their stool test if the one and only product that makes them money, for now. Guardant Health, Grail, Freenome are the companies that have shown anything as far as liquid biopsy products are concerned. As a scientist who worked in that space, I can guarantee you that there is no native talent left at Exact Sciences who can build a competing liquid biopsy product. All the good ones left because of severely incompetent management. I have my hopes high for the competitors, not this junk company.