Basic Stock Forecasting (Hint: Regression) in Excel Warren Buffet Would Love

  Рет қаралды 10,319

Doug H

Doug H

Күн бұрын

Investing in the stock market means trying to forecast or do some prediction on where the market will go. One way to do predictions is with regression, more specifically basic linear regression or simple linear regression. Applying simple linear regression to an individual stock may not work out, but for an index of stocks, that might work.
This video will use the S&P500 index as an example of how we can use regression to forecast the index value in the future. As a bonus we can see what the Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the return is to get an idea of what an "annual" return could be based on almost a decade of holding the investment.
0:00 Intro
1:16 Create Scatter X Y Chart
2:11 Add Trendline
2:38 Display Regression Equation
3:10 Functions to get Slope and Y Intercept
3:39 R Squared Explained
4:39 Forecast Example from Regression Equation
5:50 Bonus - Calculation CAGR
8:15 Warren Buffet Strategy
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Пікірлер: 17
@wayneedmondson1065
@wayneedmondson1065 2 жыл бұрын
Awesome Doug! Thanks for the function and finance lesson.. great stuff :)) Thumbs up!!
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel 2 жыл бұрын
Hi Wayne, glad you enjoyed it!
@josaipan1906
@josaipan1906 2 жыл бұрын
i love how you present this. thank you for sharing this useful video. i can improve my stocks valuation using this newly acquired knowledge. thank you Doug.
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel 2 жыл бұрын
Glad you liked it!
@angelaisland4036
@angelaisland4036 2 жыл бұрын
Wow! Great information! You explained it very well! Thank you!
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel 2 жыл бұрын
You’re welcome, glad you liked!
@ValueInvesting47
@ValueInvesting47 2 жыл бұрын
1 questions, can I use the CAGR as a reference for my growth rate in my intrinsic value calculator?
@some_dude_nate
@some_dude_nate 26 күн бұрын
my stock data does not allow me to do a scatter plot, it keeps showing me dates 50 years before my cutoff and 30 years after my current value and wont allow me to adjust
@josephvigh4749
@josephvigh4749 Жыл бұрын
EXCELLENT presentation. Logical, well organized, very valuable. Not sure if Warren Buffet's name is relevant. He is rumored to not use a computer in analyzing stocks, possible not even writing emails. Allegedly he uses a computer to play online "Bridge". There are many other investors whose success was built on computerized analysis, namely Jim Simmons of Renaissance Technology - considered the most successful investor firm in the world, Clifford S. Asness of AQR, and many others, but they are not as much in the public's eye as Buffet is. Since you demonstrated superior teaching and communications skills, perhaps you should consider bringing the practices of these two and other quants to the general public. I believe there is interest on KZfaq in these investor's practices, even when presented in a very simplified, basic form. Thank for taking the time to make this excellent video.
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel Жыл бұрын
Wow thanks for the kind words and feedback. Will consider other investments concepts and tie ins with the financial titans out there.
@vitaliiredko4173
@vitaliiredko4173 2 жыл бұрын
Actually, pretty well advice supported by math. Thanks!
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel 2 жыл бұрын
Math can make you rich 😆
@mmm-cake
@mmm-cake 6 ай бұрын
👏🏼
@mirnakhaleel
@mirnakhaleel 2 жыл бұрын
What if have months instead of years?
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel 2 жыл бұрын
Using months is fine
@user-fm5rr2xe4t
@user-fm5rr2xe4t Жыл бұрын
👏🏻👏🏻
@DougHExcel
@DougHExcel Жыл бұрын
Hi بلبل حيران, thanks for the comment! 😀
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