Biggest Debt Bubble Of All Time: What Happens When It Implodes?

Biggest Debt Bubble Of All Time: What Happens When It Implodes? | David Hay & Grant Williams

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David Hay, Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavekal and Grant Williams, Host of The Grant Williams Podcast, discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors in 2024.
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*This video was recorded on December 8, 2023
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0:00 - Intro
3:48 - Investment themes
5:38 - Taking profits?
8:28 - Small vs large cap stocks
10:00 - Banks and tech stocks
13:30 - Bonds
17:43 - Bubble 3.0
25:10 - Investing during a recession
28:41 - Will the Fed save the economy?
32:30 - Inflation
34:45 - Best and worst assets in 2024
42:00 - Debt bubble
#economy #investing #stocks

Пікірлер: 356

@TheDavidLinReport 5 ай бұрын

Ride the momentum in stocks or take profits now? What would you do before the year-end? Comment below and don't forget to "like" this video and subscribe! NordVPN offers 65% Off on a 2-year plan +4 extra months! nordvpn.com/davidlin

@400kProject 5 ай бұрын

Melt up in progress. +41.3% in our flagship portfolio thanks (in part) to JPowell !

@Eric110612 5 ай бұрын

KITCO got hacked 😱

@coeus80 5 ай бұрын

Play the credit swap in the options market.

@kaitlyncranwick 5 ай бұрын

I’ve had majority of my holdings in tech stocks and irrespective of market changes, I’ve done pretty well especially with apple’s P/E(price to earnings ratio) gaining over 30% this past decade, now my questions is what stocks do you think will be the next apple in terms of growth for the next decade.

@BiancaSherly-qt6sb 5 ай бұрын

It might be difficult finding the next apple within the tech stock sector, apple has performed way better than the others, maybe look outside of tech stocks.

@maryHenokNft 5 ай бұрын

well things are different now, same market strategies applied over last decade wouldn’t apply to the current market, so to actually figure out how to outperform the market and stay afloat for the next decade, you should reach out to a financial advisor, that’s how I’ve managed to gain over $450k in profit this past couple years

@maggysterling33254 5 ай бұрын

@@maryHenokNft How can i reach her, because I’m seeking for a more effective investment approach on my saving.

@maryHenokNft 5 ай бұрын

Do your homework and choose one that has strategies to help your portfolio grow consistently and steadily. *Camille Alicia Garcia* is responsible for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she possesses the qualifications and expertise to meet your goals.

@TheresaAnderson-kf5xw 5 ай бұрын

I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.

@Vanhi-Antara564 5 ай бұрын

Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and AMZ650K only, maybe a little BNB.

@kemptonbryan 5 ай бұрын

How can I buy these? Do you have a telegram channel I can chat on?

@Meghamala-Dhanashri2528 5 ай бұрын

I really appreciated this video, as a medium-term AMZ650K holder. I know you commented on not many people paying attention to this, but it was very relevant for holders such as myself. After watching your thoughts, I willbuy more. I also remember your ear

@adriansabo198 5 ай бұрын

Scammer be warned

@nacomdt 5 ай бұрын

Bot please go to sleep

@chrislastnam6822 5 ай бұрын

About 1/3 of new jobs are government jobs.

@Lpmeff 5 ай бұрын

In Canada it’s 100 percent

@drscopeify 5 ай бұрын

Yes when the economy slows down like it is now the Government share rises but that is just technical as the economy speeds up again the Government share will fall dramatically. It is important to remember that the Role of the Government is like a Shock Absorber they dampen bad economic times or the down cycle so this is just natural force which is the same in all countries

@dattajack 5 ай бұрын

Or people taking on second or third jobs to keep up.

@chrislastnam6822 5 ай бұрын

The reason the great depression of the 1930s, lasted so long was that president FDR created huge numbers of government jobs. When Coolidge was president and the stock market crashed more than 50% , Coolidge lowered taxes and reduced the government workforce.

@chrislastnam6822 5 ай бұрын

@@drscopeify I disagree and so does Amity Shlaes author of The Forgotten man

@buffett1000 5 ай бұрын

David Your videos are compulsory viewing. I appreciate all your work and well done, 2023 has been a hell of a good year for you. 2024 promises to be even better for you - its all so well deserved! Keep going! 💪🏻

@joeharvie8362 5 ай бұрын

Working hard David! Take care of yourself!

@paulbunyan9436 5 ай бұрын

David, today the Fed was dovish out of fear of the Stock Market crashing before their next meeting on January 30th 2024...With rebound inflation on the horizon the DOW should have been down 3000 points ...

@xmonikerhotmailcom 5 ай бұрын

Not with oil soon going sub $70 it isn't!

@smithbrady6173 5 ай бұрын

This was a great use of my time .excellent interviewer and great guests . Thank you very much!

@eclkt 5 ай бұрын

Thank you for the interview

@CoyoteOfSC 5 ай бұрын

I may have finished my BA but my education continues because of channels like yours, David. Thanks…this feeds my yearning for intellectual discourse.

@rc2276 5 ай бұрын

Great interview David!

@jimmydean4509 5 ай бұрын

Great show David! Always value David Hays opinion and impressed by Grant too. Keep it up man!

@charlesdidonato5478 5 ай бұрын

Very nice and timely interviews! 👍

@kirstinstrand6292 5 ай бұрын

I loved how Powell said today that we are probably in a resession now and that they could happen any time, subtly extinguishing the fear. Has he made such a statement previously? I thought he was being cleverly shrewd. 😮😅

@globalhawkllc 5 ай бұрын

I thought I was going crazy, and that I was the only one that heard that. lol I literally started laughing.. 😂 hilarious

@tenplus1025 5 ай бұрын

The double guest model is genius David! You are the best economist/ financial market host in the game brother. Big Daddy Lin putting in work! Thanks brother! Excellent show!

@blarpieman 5 ай бұрын

I literally cannot wait until it all comes apart. I'm so tired of it all.

@Bigsparky710 5 ай бұрын

Keep it up David love the videos!

@heinzgassner1057 5 ай бұрын

Yesterday, JP indicated that the FED might cut rates independent of any economic crises. This will ignite an unprecedented and almost unstoppable equity stampede into Q1. Instead of breaking hard after seeing the concrete wall in front of us, we will speed up our vehicle to supersonic speed and produce a gigantic crash as a consequence. When? Hard to tell.

@drscopeify 5 ай бұрын

What would cause that crash?

@freshaquatics3652 5 ай бұрын

No one knows, we can only speculate (dubiously), that's why we call them black swan events.@@drscopeify

@Gabber44906 5 ай бұрын

If JP told THE TRUTH the markets would crash..He had to say that.

@markperl5900 5 ай бұрын

Blue-Chip, David. Thanks for your work. It's so important at the precipitous times in the global markets. 🤝🏻

@titchglover2601 5 ай бұрын

really enjoying your videos and guests. you seem to be getting many videos out which is also good. Thanks for this and please keep the vids coming.

@iflifeisaleaf3125 5 ай бұрын

Happy holidays David 🥰

@user-rl5wm1cm1k 5 ай бұрын

Grant's smile @42:24 followed up with 'Stiff Drink Time"!😂 Thank you Grant.

@hart-coded 5 ай бұрын

great review. wish you asked about property market thx David.

@davidryan5819 5 ай бұрын

Great... good interview

@rof8200 5 ай бұрын

Nobody knows. All they're doing is guessing.

@it_is_what_it_is2023 5 ай бұрын

If I had listened to all these predictions of the last decades, I would have never owned stocks in my lifetime. Yes, bad things happen, but not when they want.

@eh7599 5 ай бұрын

Great discussion

@dattajack 5 ай бұрын

Great depression

@shanewatkins1350 5 ай бұрын

Great video

@weshirni1457 5 ай бұрын

I really enjoyed these guys.

@pce12345 5 ай бұрын

David you know your stuff and you're a really super interviewer 👍 TY

@jackgoldman1 5 ай бұрын

Money? Gold and silver from the US Treasury. IOUs are not MONEY. IOUs are debt, a promissory note with counter risk. IOUs are not money. Debt is not money. Pixels and digits are not money. People are VERY CONFUSED about what money is. Promises are not money. Please stop calling IOUs, "money". Only gold and silver is an honest measure, money. Don't measure reality with IOU fantasies, debt.

@xmonikerhotmailcom 5 ай бұрын

Money is what people will accept in payment.

@Harsha-Leelavati79820 5 ай бұрын

Hes so happy about the Recession coming in, like hes super excited to be witnessing it.

@mmercato7174 5 ай бұрын

He is in deep shit

@timecone57 5 ай бұрын

Thanks guys

@Nonconceptuality 5 ай бұрын

Best hair on the internet

@lucanidae100 5 ай бұрын

Your 2 guests are brilliant....as well as you

@heyjavey 5 ай бұрын

Its a paradox: the market goes up on hopes that interest rates will get cut, but interest rates will only get cut if the economy falls into recession.

@josephjuno9555 5 ай бұрын

They will cut rates 3 times to Goose economy to claim Bidenomics works? It doesnt

@br5439 5 ай бұрын

Great info! Inverse etf webs is the tip of the day.

@calebfast8088 5 ай бұрын

Just want to say that I appreciate your picks for who you promote on your channel for sponsored videos and such. Nice and professional stuff and no spammy or shady things. It's refreshing. :)

@timO67799 5 ай бұрын

Guest nailed it, both buying and selling 3-5% of postion at a time has improved my account value drastically

@stumpy25lbs 5 ай бұрын

Two Titans!! 🙏🏼

@theinflationsituation8870 5 ай бұрын

These men are top notch!

@johnbracken7032 5 ай бұрын

The clicking jingo at the end is great. Got to listen to the whole segment so I get to hear it.

@Notaslave1961 5 ай бұрын

Hair is Wild!

@heinzgassner1057 5 ай бұрын

Excellent interview, but but a good example, how mercilessly fast things are moving today. In the perspective of yesterdays FED meeting, some of the messages appear a bit ‘outdated’.

@jborges5576 4 ай бұрын

Great discussion, at least in between the EXCESSIVE commercials…

@tuomastiihonen2231 5 ай бұрын

We need Peter Schiff vs Steve Hanke debate on inflation in 2024

@anaestereo810 5 ай бұрын

Kickiing the can (debt).down the road

@trailguy 5 ай бұрын

I recently looked at the Dow and national debt charts overlayed. 1980-2000 saw the Dow rise about 11x and the debt about 5.5x, and from 2000 to present the Dow rose about 4x and the debt 6x.

@jaybird7534 5 ай бұрын

Everyone seems to have that crystal ball they used to say they didn't have 🤣

@driverdoug2002 5 ай бұрын

Like Lobo Tigre says: When everyone realizes that everyone realizes they're only making choices on what everyone else thinks, and the crystal ball comes out--Look Out Below!

@julieg.5718 5 ай бұрын

An excellent interview from start to finish! David, your questions are always insightful and move your guest, along and away that listeners benefit from. Thank you! Great guests

@ronfesta771 5 ай бұрын

Me thinketh thanks again David., another....... great podcast!@!?😉

@stever4375 5 ай бұрын

DAVID!!!😊

@jackgoldman1 5 ай бұрын

An ounce of gold is ALWAYS an ounce of gold. An IOU changes in price and value from hour to hour reflected in the stocks, bonds, and prices. Dow was $360 in 1929 and $36,000 in 2022 BUT 18 ounces of gold in and same price, ounces of gold in 2022.

@xmonikerhotmailcom 5 ай бұрын

Gold is negative 40% vs M2 money supply since 2011. It is being eroded by inflation. Thus BITCOIN! Destroying inflation since 2009.

@bpb5541 5 ай бұрын

Agree but remember Teddy stole American's gold. If folks didn't turn it in they got a huge fine and or jail time.

@davidcollins8150 5 ай бұрын

Regarding Student debt - why don't they allow Student debt to be forgiven in bankruptcy - currently unallowable.

@lucanidae100 5 ай бұрын

He is a rock star🌟

@joepappas4968 5 ай бұрын

David is future Fed Chair

@DodgyD101 5 ай бұрын

When you see the likes of Buffett selling, it's time to jump ship. Why hang on for an extra few %

@rudeawakening3833 5 ай бұрын

BUY PHYSICAL SILVER ! The most undervalued and underrated commodity on earth !

@peterbaker6051 5 ай бұрын

And is the most manipulated too. That’s the problem…..

@mrnoisy4883 5 ай бұрын

Also the poorest performing asset of all time.

@br5439 5 ай бұрын

I always short it when it gets high. Yes I do buy physical as well.

@rudeawakening3833 5 ай бұрын

You won’t be so negative once it takes off and is decoupled from the paper crap .

@mrnoisy4883 5 ай бұрын

@@rudeawakening3833 Sorry but probs will never happen.

@vijendrasingam7903 5 ай бұрын

this is power duo

@Notaslave1961 5 ай бұрын

When does reality sink in?

@dattajack 5 ай бұрын

Market open January 2, 2024

@2nostromo 5 ай бұрын

I think what they are saying...and I would really appreciate feedback, but the message seems clear: "Keep some dry powder at the ready"... Nes't-ce pas?

@bpb5541 5 ай бұрын

Not 33 Trillion ... closer to 34 trillion ! We will hit that before the year ends.

@nationsnumber1chump 5 ай бұрын

bring up that TLT history chart please and match it with the amount of consumer debt history

@Gabber44906 5 ай бұрын

WHEN??????

@kirstinstrand6292 5 ай бұрын

What about the buyer of Macy's taking it private. Are they confident that the economy will be returning to normal? It's hard to imagine that MMT will work out as expected.

@eh7599 5 ай бұрын

Hay maker

@edwardmihok6718 5 ай бұрын

Google is killing you on incessant commercials. Extremely annoying

@Soumya-Bulbul451 5 ай бұрын

Im DCAing in AMZ650K as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. Im taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

@diylong 5 ай бұрын

Good interview spoilt by mindnumbingly frequent KZfaq ads. If the ads don't reduce I would end up switching to watching something else!

@driverdoug2002 5 ай бұрын

I realized that because of my viewing time of KZfaq, I pay for KZfaq Premium, and never looked back. It's the only monthly recurring payment worth paying. No commercials.

@george0r510 5 ай бұрын

We were interrupted during this wonderful commentary was like 6 ??

@whdndrn 5 ай бұрын

When will any of these experts address the massive decline in productivity.

@mcewanschampion 5 ай бұрын

Fractional reserve lending creates dept, the whole system is dept based. So as a Lehman why does dept truly matter?

@mh01769 5 ай бұрын

David is predicting recession; wants to buy oil and avoid TLT...🤔

@grooves.x 5 ай бұрын

I always thought Grant Williams named it after the song “things that make you go hmm” (since he’s around my age😅)

@zoltanmrena9138 5 ай бұрын

there is no bullish case for gold until the whole world is shorting it above 2k....

@10percentforthebigdementedguy 5 ай бұрын

Damn. Too many ads David!

@cornbin74 5 ай бұрын

Why will deficits matter? Why at $35 Trillion and not $25 Trillion? Why not $100 Trillion? The dollar has been losing value since 1913. I don't get what will trigger a situation where sovereign debt "matters?"

@Ratnaprabha-Sudarshana9944 5 ай бұрын

I would argue more people dont stake AMZ650K because you can do more with AMZ650K , and staking is harder to do so users do nothing or use liquid staking

@Hina-Triparna81396 5 ай бұрын

My largest holding is Amazons AMZ650K. Glad it came out to be this. I’m a fanboy and I like jeff. He reminds me of Steve Jobs when he speaks.

@kikolatulipe 5 ай бұрын

Nothing will happen , the FED will buy any debt that put a stress on the system! Unlimited power by a stroke of a key on the keyboard :-)

@boaznood1682 4 ай бұрын

Let's go Bidon😂. $= for the museum..

@astralislux305 5 ай бұрын

I used to think it was a problem until I realized it isn't a problem. Just put the debt in a different column. Done.

@Benazir-Valli32885 5 ай бұрын

Great video. Im a huge AMZ650K fan and love your videos on it.

@brianw3663 5 ай бұрын

There will be buyers for US Debt. I am not concerned about that

@bpb5541 5 ай бұрын

I am so glad to hear you say that. I am however very concerned especially with yields dropping. At some point the Treasury interest rates on bonds will be too low to attract buyers to take on that risk. Then yeilds surge and bonds/stock market crash. This is the real risk IMO. Especially at these bubble levels and huge debt levels. Could get interesting we will see in Feb or March of 2024 what happens after the Repo market runs out of money.

@brianw3663 5 ай бұрын

@@bpb5541Treasuries will be the asset that investors hold durimg a recession or a crisis. Look at the past crises. They all play out the same way. Smart money pours into US Treasuries. Why? Its the world reserve currency. There isn't any currency to challenge the $USD. Per debt, the US has the cleanest shirt. Comparative.to other currencies, it is more sensible to hold $USD.

@notgunnadoit7461 5 ай бұрын

Bubble bubble coldrum and trouble, bubble bubble knees toes and stubble, bubble bubble were in big trouble, buy silver and gold and look at the hubble, the sky is the place where you'll see the price silver and gold isn't it nice!

@michaelharrison9340 5 ай бұрын

The FED has started easing again if you add in the repo drawdown - precisely matching the timing of the recent equity price increases.

@bpb5541 5 ай бұрын

Repo market will dry up by Feb or March of 2024. Then things might get really intersting.

@vaibhavhasija 5 ай бұрын

@@bpb5541can you pls expand more? Do you see gold going off the roof?

@Vagdevi-Madhumati5465 5 ай бұрын

On AMZ650K Go long when the sell pressure reduce. As short on the opposite.

@davidcollins8150 5 ай бұрын

You cannot look as sovereign debt in the same light as a company or household, especially when that Sovereign is the Global Reserve. Sovereigns always break in the end, but it will be the population that will work out the distribution of real resources when that break occurs. So called wealth accumulates in the hands of the few. When it does break, then the few will be facing revolt from the many. USA does possess many resources. It will be interesting indeed.

@rapatel1642 5 ай бұрын

I heard tjis over the last 1 year and the share market is bouncing back up.

@paulbunyan9436 5 ай бұрын

39:50

@Manju-Gauri907 5 ай бұрын

AMZ650K is up and running, and the rich are becoming richer while the poor are going poorer.

@zoltanmrena9138 5 ай бұрын

there is no confusion , stocks doing what they do, go higher.

@bpb5541 5 ай бұрын

Until they don't like say 2000 and 2008.

@yr6178 5 ай бұрын

Good luck. Nothing is going up forever.

@petergozinya6122 3 ай бұрын

Too many ads make it impossible to get into the conversation.

@Bharani-Banita3569 5 ай бұрын

AMZ650K and Ebay signed a partnership. It will blow up once it hits mainstream..

@deanchristie3829 5 ай бұрын

There's too much confusion, I can't get no relief.

@tonyjourneyman1944 5 ай бұрын

However, two riders are approaching, so relax.

@krzysztofflis1847 5 ай бұрын

❤ heroes

@Sangita-Mahi3648 5 ай бұрын

I am glad you mentioned current market cap and possible future market cap of AMZ650K . Don’t freak out people, it’s just a freaking bet.

@springnice8207 5 ай бұрын

🙏

@nein9nein 5 ай бұрын

Didn't the guy on the right say the stock market would crash around 80% by this time?

@lepton31415 5 ай бұрын

and? so what? he never claimed to be a prophet did he? or did I miss that?

@catherinefallon3894 5 ай бұрын

Biden turned on the taps, war in Ukraine rolling on, unstable Middle East, Ai bubble - all influencing what happens when. It’s coming, but it’s masked by these factors. Plus, the US administration is gaslighting to protect Biden. Fiddling the narrative before the General Election. It all stinks!