Bitcoin's Coiled Spring with Checkmate

Рет қаралды 26,811

Күн бұрын

Checkmate is an on-chain analyst and founder of checkonchain. In this interview, we discuss the Mt.Gox coins that are about to hit the market, where we are in this cycle, ETF flows and the futures cash and carry trade and if Checkmate’s $250k price prediction is still in play.
“The idea is not about predicting the future, it’s about preparing people for what is likely, because when it happens just envision: you wake up tomorrow, Bitcoin’s at $8K, or you wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin’s at $150K; in both of those 2 events you’re going to be like ‘holy shit, I need to find out what just happened.’”
- Checkmate
SHOW NOTES:
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 MTGOX selling; saving; volatility
00:12:02 Inflation; populism; Bitcoin lobby
00:25:45 Cycles; drawdowns; volatility vs P&L
00:38:23 ETF flows & perspective
00:49:11 Multiplier effect; options vs ETFs
00:58:38 Price thesis; scaling; profit-taking
01:13:00 Wen $100K?
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#Bitcoin #Finance #Money #Crypto #Economics

Пікірлер: 88

@freezo-1971 26 күн бұрын

Brilliant. My 8years old son made the statement, that bitcoin is like fat for animals. its savings. Love you guys!

@HoneyBadger80886 26 күн бұрын

Smart child. Fat is Energy

@spencerhaness 24 күн бұрын

You’ve got a brilliant son!

@jethroe1903 26 күн бұрын

Thank you for bringing back Checkmate, without doubt the best on-chain analyst out there, and that knowledge is coupled with a deep understanding of markets. Unbeatable combination, and my single biggest source of where we are in this cycle. I subscribe to his Premium service. It just rocks. George the artist

@davecorley5514 26 күн бұрын

Same here. I subscribe to _checkmatey’s Substack and daily visit his analytics website. Amazing combination of analysis and intuition. I’m an engineer and don’t understand human psychology. Checkmate is an engineer and a student of human psychology. That yields an informative blend of analytics and interpretation that no other bitcoin analyst shows. In the fiat world, it’s not possible for a public analyst to do this: the data is just hidden behind private walls of banks and companies and exchanges. How can we possibly know what the MVRV of the sum of individual investor MVRVs in NVDA? We can’t. Nobody can see this data because a running history of trade transactions is only kept by exchanges and brokers. Brilliant stuff.

@TurboTaper 25 күн бұрын

Is this the same DCR pumper checkmatey?

@we3k1ngs12 26 күн бұрын

“When you go down the bit coin rabbit hole it’s a lonely journey no one goes with you” - Check Mate

@motopolak 24 күн бұрын

So true. Eye-opening but certainly lonely.

@TheRealDerekS 26 күн бұрын

There was a coiled spring waiting for Dannys return. Blow off top en route ❤

@Matt_NL 26 күн бұрын

“Wiping away my tears with money” :-) Nailed it mate!

@davecorley5514 26 күн бұрын

Superior stuff. Thanks, Peter. Thanks, James.

@mtc_77 26 күн бұрын

so good to see Danny again honestly. He adds so much to the show!

@geoms6263 25 күн бұрын

who is danny The guy in the white shirt who doesn't talk?

@mtc_77 22 күн бұрын

@@geoms6263 yeah he’s a producer for the show. Doesn’t talk much but he’s a great wild card voice on the show IMO. I always enjoy listening when he does have something to say or a question to ask

@jordandupont8192 26 күн бұрын

Good to see Danny back - also - Danny where is your speedmaster?!

@CryptographicAlien 26 күн бұрын

Checkm8 is the man. Good wan

@raphaelhuber4084 26 күн бұрын

Amazing as always, thanks everyone!

@jshagenow 26 күн бұрын

Another great one in the books…

@AliBooondok 26 күн бұрын

Another great episode. Thank you gentlemen! It’s an amazing feeling when you can have access to very intelligent experts that act like actual human beings and are working to make the world a better place to live.

@insanity54 26 күн бұрын

Thank you Checkmate for having a great mic setup!

@redpillrepository 25 күн бұрын

Checkmate is great bro...great guest, as usual.

@HoneyBadger80886 26 күн бұрын

Run for Mayor. Take the leap.

@marcbriggs4449 23 күн бұрын

Waste of time. Mayors deal with so much nonsense

@LeeJF1 25 күн бұрын

Luv these podcasts bro, essential listening 🫡

@casamurphy 26 күн бұрын

Please post how to follow Checkmate.

@checkonchain 26 күн бұрын

G'day!

@Grayschannel 26 күн бұрын

This is all so real

@user-hb1qo6cu1z 26 күн бұрын

As much we Bitcoiners like "price go up", the slow and steady price appreciation in relation to other assets, and recognition or network size, is more important long term. If anyone tries ro push down the price of Bitcoin in dollars, it only helps Bitcoin long term. If someone sells for 60k a load of bitcoin they paid $1000 for , the odds are that the buyers were multiple entities with newer wallets. As the network speads in size and power at a lower psycological price barrier to entry, this means that more ground level users will benefit longer term from the technology, thus making it stronger They say people come for the profit and stay for the movement. I'm finding that to be true. The more people try and "game theory" bitcoin, the more they walk away stunned at how handily it wins the game.

@SAHtoshiDude 22 күн бұрын

Came for the gains, stayed for the Revolution

@KristophJeffers 25 күн бұрын

Danny's back! Was worried something happened between you guys.

@Richard-ki4nk 26 күн бұрын

8:33 spending your btc is very important. It helps increase the base number of btc holders n users

@Dpaq13 25 күн бұрын

Spend and replace

@haraldclark6206 25 күн бұрын

Great interview and great analysis from Checkmate!

@trishhaines7151 25 күн бұрын

Checkmatey had so many good takes! Thanks for yet another great show, Peter and Danny! 🧡🧡

@NatJoJoCat 25 күн бұрын

Sorry, but I don’t see where you’ve listed the other two gentleman’s channels or contacts in the comments/information section. Did you not list their names and/or KZfaq channels? Or am I just missing it.

@dr.k.math.777 25 күн бұрын

Really excellent conversation

@ambrose391 25 күн бұрын

Great show you blokes👍🇦🇺

@ChristianPecksteiner 26 күн бұрын

So good, so good... just love it

@afterbirthbob 26 күн бұрын

Best episode since last time check was on 😅

@timsmig8809 25 күн бұрын

@ 1:14 Checkmate’s hunch is right: we converted some of our 401K from stocks and cash to the IBIT ETF. BUT we self custody the bulk of our BTC. We didn’t see the need to cash out and pay the onerous tax penalty trying to self custody that portion. We will never sell IBIT either. No point.

@HomeSlize 24 күн бұрын

Starting @ 6:44 : brought back some painful memories.

@garcon8552 25 күн бұрын

Have learned the patience, but still feel the pain of the learning cycle…have yet to recover from the loses…still rebuilding, so happy that we continue to go sideways…

@iyaoyasbling6464 24 күн бұрын

Moral of the story is…still holding 🤙🏻

@tuckerbugeater 21 күн бұрын

it's like Skinner's box scaled up.

@JMAGvids 25 күн бұрын

Fuck yeah love episodes with matey

@utoob1 26 күн бұрын

Listen to him talk….bro admit it you’re totally Bob Loukas 😂

@P__114 24 күн бұрын

They’re just both Australian. The difference is Checkmate has integrity.

@skijay2010 26 күн бұрын

fellow geotech engineer here. interesting to know

@MiroPribanic 26 күн бұрын

I love this Alex Jones ;-)......and his guests, too. CM is my favourite analyst, hands down.

@IVIagicful 26 күн бұрын

We missed Danny 👏🏼

@mattsmokoska157 25 күн бұрын

I dont understand why it doesn't make sense to hodl bitcoin cash.

@s.nawfal6211 26 күн бұрын

on chain is imperfect, it could just be people moving their bitcoins from one address to another but are owned by the same person or entity,

@CptWacko 22 күн бұрын

Question: Can more than one billion people own an UTXO in your opinion with the current Bitcoin version? The answer is obviously no, so people need to stop talking about matching gold's market cap and talking more about upgrading Bitcoin scalability (and fungibility if you want it sometime to be actual money).

@Richard-ki4nk 26 күн бұрын

17:29 gov is wasteful because of incentives. People within gov making the decisions are not spending their own money and those same people have opportunity to enrich themselves and their friends (that own business that win overpriced gov contracts) at the expense of taxpayers.

@CalvinGroover 25 күн бұрын

Saying bitcoin will take decades to take out gold is super bearish lol I’m here for it though 😅

@shephelj03 25 күн бұрын

ETF's ensures the dollar remains supreme. You sell your ETF for dollars and you never hold the bitcoin, they do.

@SagaraUrz 26 күн бұрын

I hear the voice of Glassnode

@seandarrah828 26 күн бұрын

The bears have no stones! Bullish!

@dan9676 26 күн бұрын

Its not correct what Peter says about having to be an accredited investor in the UK to buy BTC

@KAMELOT72 26 күн бұрын

His Bitcoin selling price is 250K so he can buy a house. It does not mean anything to give a fixed price. Do you think the price of the house will be the same when Bitcoin hit 250k?

@Pzeroke 22 күн бұрын

How big is he? Hes head almost hitting the ceiling

@John-wf5if 26 күн бұрын

Why is Bitcoin failing to attract fresh retail investors?

@HoneyBadger80886 26 күн бұрын

Change is scarey. Until the need arises, behavior remains unchanged

@user-hb1qo6cu1z 26 күн бұрын

Slowly and steadily Massive Adoption IS taking place all over the world.

@dan9676 26 күн бұрын

By what measure is Bitcoin failing to attract fresh retail investors?

@derek.seaborn 26 күн бұрын

Peter loves to tell the story about his son selling his car for bitcoin.

@sofakingsmawsome718 24 күн бұрын

BTC don't care about your feelings!

@Lolollllo 3 күн бұрын

It's because the Blue team spent 10 years not doing all the things you said they should have done pmsl

@angussmith6825 13 күн бұрын

Story about your son paying off car payments, pleeeease tell me how he manages the capital gains tax each time he sells BTC??

@markblankenship6233 26 күн бұрын

Just investing in high volatility electronic asset. Period. Diminishing returns, the early speculators did great. Now, it’s getting financialized. A lot has been made, but more money lost, most due to bad timing. The ranges are wide, and the speed of moves is scary. This guy just said BTC trades like a commodity.?????in what universe? I’m not saying don’t get in it, but only put in money you can afford to lose. The early people who made significant money want to have another run at it. It could happen. The problem: you’ve got a slim history of like, what, three cycles?? Anything can happen.

@dan9676 26 күн бұрын

As Saylor says, only put in the money that you can't afford to lose!

@nicholasterry1634 24 күн бұрын

If you're talking about inflation and don't mention corporate gouging, you're not a serious person.

@encarsia9 26 күн бұрын

I'm working on an app that fast forwards every time Peter speaks about his bar or football team

@edreeves121 24 күн бұрын

Bitcoin idiocy is astonishing.

@suunt12 24 күн бұрын

100k Satoshi bet. Pathetic. 1 million minimum.

@otg1433 25 күн бұрын

Crypto chatter never stops, obbsessive cult like psychosis....on and on this maybe happen or maybe not, could should, those sunny uplands are just down the road....yes I have btc etc for a long time..I don't trade etc. That's why I have no need to listen to all the noise...of these KZfaq influencers...do not forget subscribe, and lots of clicks to feed my obbsession....snoozeee snoozeee