Bond Market Meltdown

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Жыл бұрын

Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments.
Ben Reppond
(406) 871-3321
ben@reppondinvestments.com
Learn how we manage money: • The Big Picture in Inv...
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CNBC video - Joe Kernan and Becky Quick interview Mohamed El-Erian.
Dr. El-Erian talks about how broken the system is and how the Fed has painted themselves into a corner. They have no alternative but to keep hiking interest rates - even if the system breaks.
• This is the most front...
McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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DISCLOSURES
This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.’s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or not.
Reppond Investments, Inc. does not make any guarantee that our strategies will or are likely to achieve returns like those shown in the performance graph in this presentation. Reppond Investments, Inc. reserves the right to trade different ETFs or mutual funds within a strategy than those reflected in the graphic shown. Stock market indices are unmanaged, broadly based indices, which differ in numerous respects from the specific portfolio composition. An investor cannot invest directly in these. Dividends and income are included in the index returns. The S&P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. However, Reppond Investments, Inc. makes no representations or guarantees with respect to the accuracy or completeness of that type of data.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. The historical performance results for indices and index funds, used as proxies for indices, are provided exclusively for comparison purposes. They are intended to provide general comparative information to help an individual client or prospective client in deciding whether the performance of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies meet, or continue to meet, his/her investment objective(s). An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.
Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a client’s or prospective client’s portfolio. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. They have not been independently audited or verified.
Investments in securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible. Investments in securities will not always be profitable.

Пікірлер: 73

@patienceobongo Жыл бұрын

I really enjoyed your calming sincere presentation. Many financial youtubers are sensationalists lthough their subject matter is no more extreme from your own.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much, Abbi.

@goose7378 Жыл бұрын

I appreciate all the effort put into these videos. This is definitely the most underrated financial KZfaq channel.

@TheBivona Жыл бұрын

Absolutely the most underrated.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you. Appreciate the generous comment.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@jasonfoster9118 Жыл бұрын

It's over. Hope you all have been learning everything you can. Knowledge is power.

@haldriver1378 Жыл бұрын

thanks Ben. excellent video as always.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thanks

@Hotel_Chuck Жыл бұрын

Thank you for the videos.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@orionsturtle4824 Жыл бұрын

Another Great show. Thx Ben!

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you Mike

@alexmarshall8894 Жыл бұрын

“I hate to use the word collapsing, but they are in a continuous state of decline” 😂 It’s alright Ben you can say they’re collapsing haha. The Ponzi scheme is falling apart.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

True. I think behind closed doors, traditional financial advisors are in panic mode. They are getting lots of calls from upset clients and all they do is give empty sound-bite type answers. They truly do not know what to do.

@nina5841 Жыл бұрын

If you hold bonds to maturity you get 100 Bo . If you sell now you lose money. Invest in high quality bonds and treasuries. Solves the problem while you get a nice4+ interest

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Bonds (not bond funds) are a safe place to be.

@TheCashFlowChannel Жыл бұрын

Thank you Ben, great video. Right now I'm mostly analysing companies with a high free cash flow yield and low debt. The past has shown that there's a huge chance that those companies outperform the market. Especially during a recession.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I agree. But with all assets and especially all equity assets so correlated, in this market all it means is that they lose less money than other companies - but they still lose (in general). So far, this year has proven best for the USD and cash. That's it (with rare exceptions).

@TheCashFlowChannel Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Yes that's right. Those companies tend to perform well when the economy starts to grow again. Because they can use their FCF for acquisitions or R&D and get an competitive edge.

@nds9777 Жыл бұрын

Thanks Ben ¡¡

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

You are welcome

@KharlHungus Жыл бұрын

I think the game isn’t investing for growth anymore. I think it’s about preserving the ability of buying power, even if everything tanks. A lot of options might not exist in 10 years. Omg..pension funds leveraged 7x.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I don't know about the future, but I agree with the thinking that this is an environment for preserving assets - and not trying to invest for growth. The traditional financial advisors can't seem to fathom or do anything about this dilemma. They are still trying to invest for growth - and the average investor who uses a traditional financial advisor is getting creamed.

@DH-wq3mo Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments 🙋🏻‍♀️I was, until I asked some appropriate & important questions on September 19. He was not happy - in fact he cussed and screamed for 41 minutes. I relieved him of his duties that day, post phone call. It's a shame that we place our trust in an FA who is paid well to have our back, but they don't. They just hope we won't look to deeply. I mean that's why we're paying them, right? So we don't have to look? 😑

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

If you want to look at an alternative to the traditional do-nothing approach, give me a call. I would be glad to talk to you.

@newbeginnings9457 Жыл бұрын

Would you recommend Bond ETF’s at any point in the future? Meaning at a lower price?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I am not a fan of bond ETFs in this interest rate environment. I manage equity risk and stay away from bonds.

@dillon7428 Жыл бұрын

Would you sell bond etf holding 10 year treasuries with interest rates continuing to rise? Is the only way for the bond etf to recover losses for the interest rates to go back down to the level before the bond etf started falling?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I’ll be glad to talk with you about this. Feel free to give me a call.

@flynncait Жыл бұрын

Thank you for this video- very informative.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you Caitlin.

@robertsmuggles6871 Жыл бұрын

UK government treasuries are attracting interest from investors/savers. However, it is not inconceivable that the Uk defaults on its sovereign debt. This is unlikely because the Bank of England has been around since 1694 and seems to be addressing the issue - but it needs to act decisively to calm the nerves of bond holders.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Robert, from all that I read, the BOE is in panic mode. They are trying to stop the hemorrhaging but are running out of tricks. I don't know the end game, but the pound sterling and the UK bonds are in trouble.

@robertsmuggles6871 Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments US commentators say the Federal reserve lent the BoE $600Bn overnight a few days ago. This has not been reported in the UK press as far as I know - if it is true it would be political dynamite.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I did not hear this but it is believable. We loaned them money. Let's see. Where did we get that money from? Our vault which is full of money? We just piled on more debt on top of the $31 trillion. We have never intended to pay back a penny of what we borrowed - or the interest. We act like there is no limit to the size of our piggy bank. I am not an elitist banker. But I know better than that.

@flir67man84 Жыл бұрын

Who insures the fdic if it fails .. just curious if its possible..

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Not sure, but I think that would be you and me. Since the government already overspends by $2-3 trillion, it would just add to the national debt by a huge amount of money. Not good. Just my opinion.

@erichammond2466 Жыл бұрын

Hi Ben. You've brought up a few different times that you don't know where the outflow of money is going. Do you have an "opinion" of where the outflow may be going to? If you're not comfortable giving your opinion I understand.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Eric, I just look at the numbers and it seems weird. How can there be billions of dollars flowing out of equities, bonds and money market funds at the same time? Where else is there? All I can think of is another asset class like precious metals or commodities. Maybe the USD.

@lionelmiao9299 Жыл бұрын

Ben, what do you think about future of government bonds that are tied to inflation such as I-bonds?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

You are only able to purchase $10,000 annually in I-bonds. Another disadvantage is I bonds can't be purchased and held in a traditional or Roth IRA. The I bonds have to be held in a taxable account. A final disadvantage of I bonds is there is an interest penalty if the bonds are redeemed in the first five years

@QuestionHouse Жыл бұрын

Is there any relation between the increase in the Fed's reverse repo market utilization over the last 2 years and the billions missing from the market?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Someone else comment that the reverse repo market is where the missing money is going.

@DH-wq3mo Жыл бұрын

Thank you for sharing this. I was able to begin educating myself about the Fed reverse repo. Sounds very manipulative and shady.

@lowtech_1 Жыл бұрын

Owl bonds...sell them...to who, to who.

@globalvision5593 Жыл бұрын

Ben how come you never talk about the lack of price discovery in the markets today ?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Could you please explain what you mean by price discovery?

@ryanbaileyboxing Жыл бұрын

🙏🏾🙏🏾

@seymourrivers6169 Жыл бұрын

Thank you, Ben. I enjoyed this week's episode as always.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@TheBivona Жыл бұрын

I’ve been managing my own portfolio for almost 20 years now..and I will tell you .. I never invested in Gold and Silver till about a year ago.. I’m expecting equities to get back to 2012-14 prices … it’s not easy to sit on your hands ,but it’s what has to be done .Again the only things I have bought in the last year are Gold and Silver and Farmland .

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Hard assets are a store of value. I advocate for people to consider gold or silver as an insurance policy against currency risk. I do not look at it as an investment (in the traditional sense) but look at it as an insurance policy. It will likely be helpful if we slide into a barter system.

@TheBivona Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments i couldn’t agree more … I have 1 oz silvers specifically in case of the barter scenario .. but mostly bars .

@MartinJG100 Жыл бұрын

The majority of so called 'buy the dip' financial advisers are little more than glorified sales 'people' with next to no real experience of real fundamental market forces. Just embarrassing to behold but that is the way of things and more than ever today. Never seen such a shambles from top to bottom. Where is the money going? Derivative debt margin calls perhaps....

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Traditional financial advisors are distraught. They do not know what to do but spin a story and hope it comes trues. Their track record speaks for itself.

@MartinJG100 Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Indeed, but hope is never a good strategy :(.

@steveambrose2349 Жыл бұрын

Wow. Where are we going in this world? Crazy isn’t it? Are short-term (3-6 month) CD’s safe over time? Are longer-term (multi-year) CD’s safer? Ben, do you use CD’s in this type of falling market to minimize losses? Thank you.

@axelfoley1508 Жыл бұрын

How about ibonds?

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

When you buy (or invest in) an asset itself, and if that asset is solid and not subject to decline, that seems safer than an asset subject to market fluctuations (like bond ETFs, etc.). I put my own money and my clients' money in cash or money market funds until I am ready to go back into the equity market - when investment risk has diminished.

@charleslaw2561 Жыл бұрын

Both your moderate and performance returns are down more than 10% for the year. Why do people pay you to loose their money? If you understand the problems with the economy, there is no reason you should be loosing money. The money leaving equities is going into money markets which ends up in the Fed's Reverse Repo, which is now about $2.4 trillion.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Charles, first of all, very, very few (almost no) advisors publish their results. Why? Their results are abysmal. I have always published mine because the public should see how well I have done at managing money in good times and bad. I have always said that my goal is to minimize risk - not eliminate it. The S&P is the common benchmark . It is down about 25% YTD. My moderate strategy is down about 10%. I have reduced losses about 60%. Not perfect, but I’m OK with that and my clients seem to be also. Thanks for watching and thanks for your insight on where money is going.

@patienceobongo Жыл бұрын

-10% only? Most investors should be down 20-30% and Crypto down 100% if your broker absconded with your money. Seems Mr Reppond is doing exceptionally well in this Depression.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you, Abbi. Everyone I have talked with would be ecstatic with a -10% loss. What frustrates investors the most is that their advisors have done NOTHING. Just sit there and collect a fee. I am just passing on what I have heard.

@patienceobongo Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Even if you sold all investments for cash in January, inflation would have eaten nearly 10% by now. Look at the crazy stock market Shenanigans today - would can predict that?!

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Agreed Abbi. Since we never know the future, it would be hard for us to know what to do. We have been in cash a lot this year. However, during the first few months, we got an indication that we should be Risk Off. We mostly went to cash, but put a fractional allocation in defensive assets - like commodities, precious metals and intermediate treasuries. When it became apparent that there were no safe defensive assets, we just started using cash as our Risk Off position. In retrospect, it looks like we would have done the best by buying the USD. But that is hindsight.

@workwillfreeyou Жыл бұрын

Down 42% plus another 15% inflation hit.

@7777voyles Жыл бұрын

Someone needs to tell Joe it’s going to be worse than the great depression!!!

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

I think this is going to turn into a long rem bear market (per the video). Once we finally get to the bottom, a lot of people (and traditional investment portfolios) will be wiped out (or down severely)