The issue with passenger rail in the U.S. is that there is a glaring double standard when it comes to costs and expectations. Is a trucking company responsible for the construction of the roads the products would be delivered on? What about Uber and Lyft? Or any bus service. They get to use the roads that are paid for and heavily subsidized by the government. What about airlines. Did Delta have to build the airport, the runways, air traffic control, etc.? No. They get to use the subsidized infrastructure provided by the government. Yet a company like Brightline is expected to build and maintain a rail line to use. Or they have to work out a deal with another company that had to build and maintain its on rail line. I think it is time we level the playing field. It is time the federal government becomes responsible for building and maintaining rail lines. They can lease space to the companies that use them much the same way an airport would charge for gate space, charge landing fees, and how the government charges a gas tax to help pay for roads. Notice I didn't say to pay for roads since the tax revenue isn't enough to cover the cost.

Love Brightline, beats sitting in traffic each and every day. Beautiful experience!

There are many thousands of people moving to Florida every year and many of them, of course moved to Orlando and southern Florida. The toll road is always becoming more congested from Orlando to the mega cities of West Palm, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. I have enjoyed taking the train from Orlando three times and I’m taking it for the fourth time with the friend next month. Very comfortable and I can talk to my friend and read my e-book and also I take my own drinks and snacks on the train.

The Cocoa station is a great profit potential. Orlando tourists will be able to Take a beach day trip See a Spacex launch Add a 3 day cruise All without having to rent a car, sit in traffic, and look for parking

Without significant government investment, I don't think comprehensive intercity rail travel can be profitable. Particular routes could be, so we might see "paired cities" as a moneymaker (e.g. Omaha to Kansas City, Chicago to Minneapolis, Dallas to Houston, etc.). Intercity rail service is so successful in Europe because of geography and substantial government investment, as those governments have seen a comprehensive system of public transportation as being a service the government should provide. It will be interesting to see how things progress with Brightline.

Another well-produced look at history, and the future. I wish Brightline well, and I'll be keeping a close eye on the Los Angeles to Las Vegas run they will begin building soon!

One point left out: Revenue from high end cruise ship passengers. There is significant traffic that can be tapped into here, especially travelers from countries that are used to using passenger trains to get around.

I've ridden Brightline round trip, Miami to Orlando, twice now...and on both trips the train was full. I don't know enough about the economics of this business to speculate on the long term, but people are riding these trains! I read just the other day they are ordering additional cars as demand is exceeding supply at the moment. And, by the way, the ride is extremely comfortable and pleasant. Whether it's faster than flying or driving isn't the point. It's a better ride.

Given the similar rolling stock, I wouldn't be surprised at all of their eventual goal is to turn it over to Amtrak as a state supported service - Amtrak Brightline in a similar operation as Amtrak Cascades, taking advantage of the still extant law that allows them to pass the service to the NRPC at basically any time. The lack of electrification despite having the money to do it along the routes makes it pretty clear they're not in this for the long term profitability of the rail service, as that's one common feature of every profitable intercity rail service, Amtrak or otherwise.

This train is changing Florida in a good way, so regardless, it's going to stay.

Excellent video and very solid information. I work for a property development company in South Florida and let me tell you that Brightline has been a game changer in the real estate market here especially in downtown Miami with Miam Central, in downtown Fort Lauderdale and downtown West Palm Beach. The train trip is almost incidental compared to the vast real estate development opportunities in the downtown areas along the line.

What a great video. I am impressed by your understanding of the big, real estate picture. Too many people do not take the time to understand what is really happening . I do believe that Brightline will be a profitable rail road. Gen Z hates cars and loves trains. They are the future, God help us! 😊

You make some very interesting points that I had not seen. You are correct that as a revenue tickets alone will not pay for the service. Great video.

It is an interesting business model, one that very clearly is history repeating itself. In the end, there are more benefits than drawbacks. - private investment creates the infrastructure - public investment will keep it operating

This is so simple, it's really frustrating that 'transit advocates' can't understand this. Fun fact, most air routes and seats don't make money and cruise lines don't make their money on fares either. Brightline can't go away (including being run into the ground by the Government) because it's the reason RE values are high.

One benefit brightline might have over the older railroads with reguards to ticket revenue is that prices won't have to be regulated by the old Interstate Commerce Commission. Quick tldr it was set up in the 1880s to try and curb railroads from charging extortionary rates or using the standard oil playbook of selling your service at a loss to drive your competitor out of business, but this stayed in place until the 1990s, long after the peak of railroads power. Good example of this is when the auto train was operating under a private corporation, there are a lot of reasons it went under despite being profitable in its first few years, but one of the main ones was after 1978 airlines became deregulated and began offering dirt cheap flights on that route, and everytime auto train wanted to lower their fares to try and keep up, they had to petition the ICC to do so which took around 3-4 months. The STB still technically regulates passenger fares but in a ruling from years ago they determined that brightline wasn't under their jurisdiction because they didn't cross state lines, but this hurdle might happen brightline west if/when it starts operation

The private model is decent for building infrastructure , as somehow the funding is more abundant (still needs government aid) and there is less red tape. However, like you said as soon as there is no money to be had, the private model falls apart and the state or federal government needs to step in and run the service. Passenger transportation is an interesting paradox, as it is essential, but almost never profitable. That way, I think since it's a public service, it should ultimately be run by the public. It does not need to make a profit. Thanks for this great video!

Excellent points! A great video.

Awesome video! Thanks 😄

I certainly hope Brightline keeps running and makes a comeback for trains since I sure hate driving from Orlando to Fort Lauderdale, West Palm and Miami ! Traffic on the toll road is terrible in Florida, southern Florida

Spot on.

In Europe and Japan, passenger trains generally don’t turn a profit and rely on government help if not ownership. It seems inevitable here in the USA…

All European passenger rail (except UK) is subsidized by the government. Whether you spend it building Interstate highways, or subsidize passenger train service… you need government support either way.

You're video's are excellent! So informative. Very much appreciated. 😊

With hopefully good management more stations can be built along the line and expand real estate for a long time to come if Florida ecconomy continues to grow .

0:22 I certainly don’t remember any news stories predicting profitability for Brightline; it wasn’t a secret that it was a long-term real estate play, to which the choo choo was incidental. Also, those headlines are all from before the Orlando extension opened.

The ridership is not low, they just say the ridership forecast is slashed. They are short on Siemens Venture coaches. The original plan was supposed to be 7 coaches for the Orlando opening, it only opened with 4 because Siemens Mobility is very busy with Amtrak orders right now. All station platforms are designed to accommodate 10 coach passenger trains (which is 7-8 million riders per year at current frequency). The current run away number is roughly 3-4 million passengers this year. This makes it rival the Acela Express ridership already within 1 year of operation to Orlando If Brightline increases frequency to 30 minutes with 10 coach trains due to high demand, the ridership will be 16 million passengers. This will far exceed the ridership of the Northeast Regional. This can happen, due to Brightline's future access to three big cruise terminals (Cocoa, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami). When Brightline connects to Tampa with the theme park connections, it will have even more ridership. People will no longer need to rent a car (ignoring price arguments) in order to enjoy travelling in Florida.

One historical footnote that was the final nail in the coffin killing intercity passenger rail: the USPS. Up until 1967/1968 most mail was carried and sorted on long distance passenger trains. The post office provided enough revenue to cover the trains' operating costs. After 1968, all long distance mail moves via Air Mail. Prior to the that April was an optional, service. I remember when regular first class mail was six cents; Air Mail was eight cents. Interestingly enough the inspector general, who overseas Amtrak finances, has recommend that Amtrak consider haul mail and express on the NEC. The post office has declined.

If the profitable sections that Amtrak operates on, namely the North East Corridor were offered up for private operation, i think they would still be private. The reason that hasnt happened is because it is a package deal with the network in the rest of the country. Brightline has been smart in that they know how limited their scope can be and if they can use realestate to bear the initial expenses and build the areas around their line to the a stable state of operating revenue, the spectre of switching over to public ownership wont even be in the question.

I think what many miss is that the country and the economy are rapidly changing. For example, the U.S. will overtake the EU in population by 2050. Governments can’t continue to support auto centric transportation and development models (sprawl doesn’t pay for itself), and the cost of car ownership is exploding. With housing costs also rising and population increasing. something has to give. That means denser neighborhoods and more transit oriented developments. The issue of profitability is irrelevant because rail contributes to sustainable, economic development and more than pays for itself. Like with all other modes which are all dependent on government support, rail passenger service probably will be as well.

What about private railways in Japan that have a mix of rail, real estate, and other businesses, and keep this mix of trains and property development/managment going for decades? And what about profitable intercity and high speed operations in Europe? Once the orginal debt of the construction of Brightline is paid off, ticket revenues should be enough to make it profitable, as it's the initial billions in debt of construction that cause privately financed HSR in Britain and Taiwan to require a public bailout. It's like airlines and trucking companies having to retire the debt of airport and highway construction in a decade... even in the 19th Century railroads often went bankrupt before being reorganized into profitable ventures.

I live in the Daytona area I can now fly out of Orlando airport with a short drive to cocoa beach . And so can about 1,000,000 other people.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Brightline main enticement is going from A to B quickly without a car, and at a very low price. But A & B must be places people want or need to go to.

I hope Brightline becomes profitable. I live in Northern Michigan and I would love to be able to get on a high speed train near my house and go to the Carolinas where I have family or Florida.

I am also keeping an eye on any Brightline extension to the Universal/ Disney areas. This could further solidify Brightline as a major transporter in the area. It has been a few years since I have been in the Disney area. I have heard they are continually expanding I-4 and traffic is still bad. This could prove to be very lucrative for Brightline - maybe even creating direct investment from the theme parks themselves.

History teaches that what killed early rail development was the government - not the lack of real estate opportunities. The US government heavily subsidized other forms of travel, and less dense forms of development that directly hurt the rail+land model. No rail project will ever solely depends on ticket sales - look at the Japanese Rail example, MTR etc

How are Westbahn, Regiojet, Leo Express, Snälltåget, MTRX, ntv, Flixtrain and European sleeper making money running passenger trains without owning tracks? How could their business model be applied to the United States?

I'm surprised at how short the trains are in compare to European trains! The ICE 1 has between 9 and 12 coaches, the TGV has 8 shorter coaches! But 4 is really not much! So earn money with passenger tickets is limited compare to Europe. But i think there is a lot of potential, with longer trains and good development there will be a chance to be profitable.

What everyone forgets is that even back in the 1890s when there was zero alternative to passenger rain travel the service was still barely profitable with many lines. Cargo rail service made the majority of their profits outside of selling the land around the track they laid down. When the land was all sold it was no longer a factor. Once trucks and the interstate gave an alternative to rail the railroads could no longer afford to offer the service.

So you build a 50 storey mixed use building. Without an elevator you will have no tenants. The elevator is a necessary expense to make the building viable. You do not overindulge on the elevator nor do you have more than what is necessary. Then the government regulates how you operate and maintain your elevator controlling how much you spend. Then they build another elevator in your building and charge the tenants extra for using it. But it has extra capacity and they don't mind the extra expense. Ultimately the government assumes ownership of all the elevators. The tenants still pay rent AND pay the ever-increasing costs of all the elevators. Brightline is the horizontal elevator.

Acela is profitable, maybe Surfliner as well? Aren't those the more relevant comps than just "Amtrak"?

2:03 - As featured in the movie "North By Northwest"

All transport modes need public spending and whilst I don't think railways should be built or kept running just for the sake of it there is no railway in the world that is profitable to run the calculation has to be made as to whether a mass transit system that a railway is, is more cost effective than building and maintaining miles and miles of freeway and when these get congested more and more the huge expense of adding an extra lane and landing this to a crazy extent is the better option. We had this discussion here in the UK 30 years ago when railways were privatised, franchised out to private companies, it failed miserably. Private businesses have to make a profit, have to pay shareholders, have to raise investment, and to be honest I don't want government involved in anything more than they have to, but i personally think in the end railways should be fun by non profit businesses or ones like those in Germany or France, by Deutsche Bahn or SNCF (I know in these countries there are more providers but in applying the model to the US until you have a network I think you have to start here), so companies with expertise running things with very little to no involvement by politicians (who don't know what they're doing). I just can't believe that government money is being given to Brightline West to build a private railway. If it was a loan at a beneficial interest rate then fine but if you're not careful money will be leached out of the system and people running the company will make a lot of money just from money paid to them. If the Florida operation uses increases in land or property prices to build its railway and rinse and repeats this then fine, and eventually the coats of running it aren't sustainable and it is brought into being a part of Amtrak then fine, but I just don't see private railways being profitable in the long term (unless you remove the costs of maintaining the railway and the rolling stock).

Brightline is on track to be EBITDA positive this year, so the end of this video (which implies it will need to become a public service) is incorrect.

Well, the next project at Bright line is planning makes so much sense that it might make money just from ridership… If they can successfully get a high-speed train to work from the eastern edges of Los Angeles County out to Las Vegas?? there is so much money to be made on both sides of the equation here that it might actually be able to pay for itself just on rail tickets! The drive is that bad!!

Public transit infrastructure shouldn't be thought of as a profit making enterprise. It should be thought of as a public service like police, fire, K-12 education, and the military. Roads don't pay for themselves either. They are a public service unless it's a private toll road.

The more stations to stop at, the slower the train, you can't add faster trains because it only has one track.

So you are saying the feds should start a government-owned development arm that develops land around future HSR stations to get the services up and running...

Airlines and highways "lose money" as well, and require public investment. Rail travel has been a culture wars pawn since the Reagan era.

So ... Brightline basically doing a pump and dump scheme?

According to the2024 February monthly report, Brightline has doubled its revenue. They are able to break even in 2024 in operating profit. But the interest rate is high, so it is still a long way from positive cash flow and positive net profit.

Good job. If all the free stuff for Premium ticket riders hasn't disappeared, it soon will. Along with price increases.

Privatize profits now and socialize inevitable losses later -- why SAYS America doesn't lead the way anymore!

It's always empty every time I see one passing

1:28 No, it won't. But it will try its heart out!

Like your video man. I think that every transport company should be owned by then government essentially since it already gives tax dollars to those companies anyways for the most part. Privatizing passengers rail, from what I’ve seen, has not been successful thus far.

Passenger train network is an unprofitable money pit..We have the same problem in Spain but bigger by magnitudes...🙄

The only profitable railway I can see in the future is high speed rail from LA to Las Vegas. Lord knows it won’t be California’s low speed rail to nowhere.

The federal government needs to purchase ROWs from freight railroad companies via Eminent Domain and use them primarily for passenger rail service. Freight railroad companies have too much power in the USA. It's the main reason our train passenger service is terrible compared to Europe and Asia.

Great video. Very Informative. One BIG FACT error though. Fortress does NOT own FEC. FEC is owned by Groupo Mexico Transportes.

The main problem with this is that you basically giveaway public assets to private companies so they can make tons of money just and than dumps it back on the public. It will be far more economical for a country to invest it's own money in the first place than give almost for free it's assets for a short time "gain"that only makes the rich richer and the rest of the country poorer. As always, you've created this problem and instead of fixing it you try to "bypass" it this enshrining the problem and making it worst. And the worst part is that you don't do it with roads or air travel, just with rail. Here what you should do, and are apparently incapable of doing: national the rail infrastructure. Invest in it, improve it, electrify it, add high speed lines, urban transit and start catching up with the rest of the world. Make this network open for all like road but in the form flights, which is more similar to trains, by making the network open access where private companies can operate trains by paying for slots and subsidizing less profitable routs. That said, if you insist that there is no other way the government must insist that in return of public funds and assets the private companies must have liabilities for those services, like minimum service requirements, like providing consistent service, not just when it's profitable (so no trains only on peak hours or shutting down service completely for 18 months while government transit agency keeps providing service) and financial compensation if they decide they made enough money and than dump it for the public to pick up the pieces.

I thought the purpose of Brightline was to encourage people to travel via train from South Florida to Orlando. I’ve seen videos comparing it to air travel. Now they are adding more stops along the way? Trains lose to planes again.

This is a problem of the neoliberal political ideology that’s been highly prevalent in America since the Reagan era, where profitability is the primary or even sole measure of the value of a public service, irrespective of the societal or economic benefits it provides. This is why you see such strident resistance to government investment in public transportation projects and advocacy of silly ideas like fixing public education by privatizing it. Related to that is a culture of selfishness in America, where people only want to see government investment in projects that they personally plan to use. So the same people who bitterly oppose a new light rail, heavy rail or passenger rail service won’t utter a single complaint about road or airport construction that also costs taxpayers money. The whole reason we have such bad public transportation in America in the first place is because the government chose to invest in road and air transportation while shortchanging rail.

8:10 - More Government by necessity is always a bad thing...

How does Europe handle multitude of private railroads? They seem to be multiplying. It's not just the British Rail, SNCF, DB, etc.

There is no railway culture in US because government's promoted Road and Airport's. System is built in a way discourages to bring new trains Private railways doesn't work in every country but Japan is an exception Train ticket rates are in between Road and Airport's price with minimum speed 200 kmph There is an marketing and aspirations to bring new trains and new routes but there is no ground reality to make it happen

Brightline runs a route that is more expensive and less convenient than driving. In most cases it's not as fast either, especially door to door - it's not high speed rail only reaching about 120MPH for a short leg of the journey. They are already hitting up local governments to build stations for them. They have never met their own ridership projections - not even close. They are nowhere near being profitable.. Don't confuse a general boom in South Florida real estate values due to massive business and resident migration into the state and area with the property being near a Brightline station as a reason for increased values. The Brightline bondholders don't and won't benefit from Fortresses other investment successes, and if Brightline goes under they are SOL. IMHO, next station for the Ghost Train is Bankruptcy, or as you said gov't subsidies and bailouts (but this is low tax Florida).

Depend on who will be the next President in 2025 may not invest anymore

Air Travel is a bust----TSA, Boeing defects=RR, city to city, no fear, reasonable fare. Full Stop....to airtravel.

The main reason the Brightline isn't profitable is because it doesn't offer a a cost savings and it doesn't save you traveling time. I can drive from Orlando to Miami as fast or faster depending on traffic cheaper, or i can take a 30 minute plane ride from MCO to MIA for $100. There is no incentive to take it. What they should have done was create a bullet train that traveled at average speeds of 150+ MPH like they have in Japan. Get me from Orlando to Miami in 1.5 hours and people will buy tickets. The government doesn't have to subsidize anything

Pie, In, the, Sky. As mentioned by yourself. Its all about financial strategy and much about being viable, which it is not. But hey a lot of dept based capital will be mined by this gold digging operation.

Not very optimistic ! ! !

Real estate is not going to be the means for Brightline's future success. It will succeed only if it can generate enough revenue to cover operating and maintenance costs and then amortize its investment in infrastructure and equipment, after paying off the bonds that have partially financed the project. Henry Flagler did NOT use real estate to make the Florida East Coast Railway a success. He used the FEC Railway to develop the East Coast of Florida, especially the Miami area, and to facilitate tourism when passenger trains were the only viable means of intercity travel. There is no evidence Fortress Investment Group has any plans to use Brightline for large scale real estate development. Moreover, they DON'T NEED BRIGHTLINE TO DO THAT. Any real estate project they undertake will have to succeed on its own merit because there is no real symbiotic relationship between intercity rail and real estate. Urban eail transit is an entirely different matter. It can both stimulate and facilitate densification in large cities, resulting in large scale real estate developments. The assertion that Brightline needs real estate to be financially viable is rooted in a liberal bias against private sector infrastructure projects and a preference for government ownership and operation. Amtrak is the latter and is anything but a success.

Imagine if we let billionaires own the interstate highway system. Imagine how mad people would be about having to pay every time they drive anywhere for anything. Why the fuck do we let them privatize rail then?

Get to the point. No history lesson needed.

I moved out of shithole Stuart just so I don't have to listen to non stop horns blaring all day and evening long. I could see inside the trains passing by at night and they were almost empty.

Please hire a professional voiceover person.

Why would i want to support a channel that bashes our rail s

These passenger rail activists ignore the fact that these trains are a nineteenth century technology. We are in the 21st century now. We have cars, highways, airplanes and buses that are cheaper and more efficient than passenger trains. Even famous trains like the Japanese Shinkansen lost so much money after it was established that the system was privatized in order to cut, but not eliminate, its massive losses.

So Brightline is a money loser. That is the point! BTW... Commercial re-estate is dead.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.

Real estate isn't its only means. Also lets see how revenue is when it reaches Tampa and the they make a station in Cocoa to serve the Space Coast.