The Statistics of Pick 3 and Pick 4 Lottery: Binomial Distribution

  Рет қаралды 249,899

BurkeyAcademy

BurkeyAcademy

7 жыл бұрын

Here I discuss pick 3 and Pick 4 lottery tickets. We discuss why and how to use the Binomial Distribution.
Support this project on Patreon! / burkeyacademy
Or, a one-time donation on PayPal is appreciated! paypal.me/BurkeyAcademy
My Website: www.burkeyacademy.com/
Talk to me on my SubReddit: / burkeyacademy

Пікірлер: 61
@dvawva5197
@dvawva5197 4 жыл бұрын
...my first thought was, "Ironman Picks Lottery Numbers!!" :) I CAN hear the Tom Hanks angle, but I still hear Tony Stark.
@RieRieLuv
@RieRieLuv 8 күн бұрын
So if you have 1-2 what are you gonna put for that? I’m still learning lottery math
@willpowersLotteryDataAnalyst
@willpowersLotteryDataAnalyst Жыл бұрын
Dr. Burke, thanks for the informative video. Question: Is it possible to increase the odds of winning? Example: What is the frequency for drawing a single (non-duplicate) number (like: 123)? Better question: What is the frequency of a triple number (ex: 222) being drawn? Reasoning: If we can find the frequency of said occurrences, couldn't we increase the odds of winning?
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy Жыл бұрын
There is no way to increase the odds of winning. People have studied the theory and the history of actual draws, and found nothing ( except for rare situations where one state used to have a computer draw the numbers, and the program was doing it wrong).
@willpowersLotteryDataAnalyst
@willpowersLotteryDataAnalyst Жыл бұрын
@@BurkeyAcademy Dr. Burke, I respectfully disagree. I am a Pick 3 data strategist. I believe the odds of winning can be increased if the list of numbers to choose from are decreased, a scheduled betting strategy implemented, and other number patterns (such as sums), and micro datasets are considered. Note: A micro dataset can be between 3-30days. Let's say I didn't focus on the entire list of 1000 numbers and only looked at numbers that totaled "8" when their digits where added together. My list of numbers to choose from would = 10 (not 1000). For example, the sum of "8" has appeared 10 times in the last 30days of NC Pick 3. If I were to schedule my bet 1-2days after a sum of "8" appeared, I would be ROI positive. Actual Pick 3 drawing results ==> [Date : Pick 3 Result:] 2022-06-19: 044 2022-06-20: 800 2022-06-26: 215 2022-06-27: 530 2022-07-10: 215 2022-07-11: 404 2022-07-13: 017 2022-07-14: 134
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy Жыл бұрын
@@willpowersLotteryDataAnalyst "Data Strategist" :) If you believe that the balls have some sort of alien intelligence, and have a talk before the draws and say "Hey guys-- let's make sure we add up to "8" tomorrow!", then I appreciate your contributions toward funding education in North Carolina! Also, you are incorrect that there are only 10 out of 1000 tickets that sum to 8-- there are 45 unique tickets out of the 1000 that sum to 8, not that it matters, since the balls have no way of knowing what they should add up to on any given day. We call what you are doing "the Gambler's Fallacy".
@kenp6219
@kenp6219 6 жыл бұрын
Thanks for this! Wish every young person knew that wishing on a dream of lotteries,really are for just entertainment. Therefore they should play for a laugh without expectation! Good job! Very well explained!
@stevejenkins2872
@stevejenkins2872 2 жыл бұрын
How many times have you
@peter-ek3uh
@peter-ek3uh 2 ай бұрын
Good thing the lottery would never cheat us out of a win!
@faridmansour369
@faridmansour369 2 жыл бұрын
Unfortunately, the explanation is not clear, only an example is required
@carey232323
@carey232323 3 жыл бұрын
Hi, great video. Have a question, why can you not use the hypergeometric distribution for pick 3? If the hypergeometric distribution is used in excel the probability of selecting 2 balls correctly is found by HYPGEOMDIST(2,6,6,47) (if there are 47 balls in that lottery. Therefore to work this out for 3 draws could you not use the equation HYPGEOMDIST(2,18,18,141)? Understand the video above but don’t understand why you can’t use the hypergeometric distribution. Thanks!
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 3 жыл бұрын
You must be talking about a different pick 3. I am talking about picking 3 balls from 3 different groups of 10, which is binomial. If you are picking 3 from a common pool of balls, then that is hypergeometric.
@carey232323
@carey232323 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for your reply. I’m talking about picking 3 numbers correctly from 3 different groups of 47. So picking 3 numbers correctly from 3 different runs of the lottery. Is that still hypergeometric if it’s 3 different pools of balls but the same numbers (1 to 47) are in each pool?
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 3 жыл бұрын
@@carey232323 I don't think I understand exactly what you are trying to accomplish. You want to know the probability that what happens?
@carey232323
@carey232323 3 жыл бұрын
There are 3 draws of the Irish lottery on say Saturday night. There are 47 balls in each draw of this lottery. I am trying to work out the probability of selecting 3 numbers correctly across these three draws on a particular day, where say if number 10 was to appear twice, it would only count as selecting one number correctly. Does that make sense?
@LotteryFenom
@LotteryFenom Жыл бұрын
kzfaq.info/get/bejne/l7eeYMeC277HZ4U.html
@beverlysboutique
@beverlysboutique 7 жыл бұрын
HAS ANYONE EVER TOLD YOU THAT YOUR VOICE SOUNDS LIKE TOM HANKS??? LOL
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 7 жыл бұрын
Yes, I hear that occasionally, but don't quite get it. I mean, he grew up in California, and I am a small town North Carolina boy. :)
@jennifercharlton-dennis6763
@jennifercharlton-dennis6763 6 жыл бұрын
Sounds nothing like Tom Hanks at all! The only thing they have in common is they're both men haha!
@Hellofrank35
@Hellofrank35 2 жыл бұрын
@@jennifercharlton-dennis6763 😆
@Thewoke876
@Thewoke876 3 жыл бұрын
This is great
@Potencylogic
@Potencylogic 5 жыл бұрын
Nice one guy but I would not share my winnings
@DriveWithJake
@DriveWithJake Жыл бұрын
So, correct me if I'm wrong but, theoretically speaking (going off the odds posted on California's Pick 3 website), if you took the time to buy one ticket for every single possible combination (I can guarantee no minimum wage worker is going to take the time to manually put in 1000 different combinations but if they did), you have pretty close to a 100% (if not 100%) chance of winning more than you spent on the tickets (dependant on how many other people win of course). Would the odds increase or decrease if you were to choose 1000 computer randomized numbers? I mean the likelihood of repeating a winning number increases that way but with combinations likely missing, the likelihood overall of winning decreased.
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy Жыл бұрын
I am not from California, but every pick 3/4 lottery system pays out MUCH less in winnings than it would cost to buy one of every ticket. This is how they make a profit. Typical system Pays out 40% of what they take in.
@DriveWithJake
@DriveWithJake Жыл бұрын
@@BurkeyAcademy no, if there is a 1:1000 chance of winning the straight (typically over $350 and averaging closer to $500, we'll say $350 as a minimum). Getting a Box (typically doesn't go under $55 and can be over $200 but we'll say $55) has the odds of 1:333 at the lowest (two out of 3 are the same numbers), and a Straight/Box (typically doesn't get under $200 but can get up over $500) has the same odds at the lowest for 2 of the same numbers at 1:333. (1•$350)+(3•$55)+(3•200)=$1,115 with only $1000 spent. That's the typically lowest odds and winnings. The odds increase from the 1:333 to 1:167 if each number is different, increasing the equation to a max of over $3,850 on $1000 of tickets depending on how many tickets were sold and how many winners there were. They bank on multiple losing tickets as typically at least 1/2 don't win anything, usually more. Again, this is theoretical (as no minimum wage worker is going to do 1000 different combinations manually), the last 40 draw results, and based off of the odds posted on the website. I mean, I'm not a mathematician but I'm pretty sure my numbers are pretty accurate. Obviously, the numbers wouldn't be the same if everyone used that same strategy as winnings would be significantly lower as everyone would share the winnings equally and there would still be a revenue cut from the winnings I believe but as it is, I'm pretty sure this is accurate.
@2cee1021
@2cee1021 2 жыл бұрын
Too many doors in my brain I would have to open up to understand , but thank you
@mjarboesdf
@mjarboesdf 2 жыл бұрын
Same here! Thank goodness, all we really need to know how to do on a daily basis is add, subtract, multiply and sometimes divide! Sheesh! 🤣
@manuellopez1786
@manuellopez1786 6 жыл бұрын
yo quiero saber si en esa lotería dan adivinanzas ho son inventadas aquí en Cuba
@SUGAR_XYLER
@SUGAR_XYLER 5 жыл бұрын
No Cubans aqui😁
@Will-uz2yv
@Will-uz2yv 3 жыл бұрын
Too educated for me what about breaking it down in simplistic terms for those who do not know alpha and omega mathematics like you do? This is showing off instead of explaining it in 3rd grade math terms 😑
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 3 жыл бұрын
This is a video for people taking statistics courses in high school or college, not 3rd graders. ☺
@fredchester921
@fredchester921 2 жыл бұрын
Third Grade math?? Um… knowing your multiplication tables from 1 to 10, and learning the concept of “rounding off” is not a high level indeed. One would think that you graduated with at least a GED, and therefore have the acumen to plug numbers into a “given formula” to get a result, the percentage (probability) answer. An open book quiz, with explanation, and answer by BurkeyAcademy. And the simple illustrations were very helpful. I understood the lesson easily. And more importantly, I grasped the concept that it’s impossible, statistically speaking, to have any good chance to pick the correct PICK3 or PICK4 numbers. Indeed, it would be impossible to do a PICK1. The math is correct. It is what it is.
@revanvonheaven8270
@revanvonheaven8270 Жыл бұрын
@@BurkeyAcademy 2-5-7-10-12 - - - 720 return value 0 C language AI do not share the exploit do the smaller ones more times and do not hit the big jackpots more then twice don't get greedy because that locks down the system and prevents counting in other terms keep your mouth shut and don't be one of those guys that wins 7-14 times that is just being greedy and retarded 1-3 times no one will say a thing move on being greedy ruins it for the rest... 50-50 give and take not just take take take its parasitical and causes a lock in the matrix exploit dont be a piece of shit to all people who will count cards don't get greedy being greedy usually gets you prosecuted for fraud as simple as that so measure no harm done to much its just robbing the house and the house does not like that this is a golden rule of all casinos lotteries its not the counting its the blatant greed of some players you deserve all ramifications if you are that stupid!.
@simplysakinaa
@simplysakinaa Жыл бұрын
I don’t understand how this is difficult to understand lol mfs don’t have the mental capacity or attention span to sit and watch this but hey to each their own
@aaronparnell31
@aaronparnell31 5 жыл бұрын
How would you calculate the overall probability if you took into account buying multiple tickets at the same time? As in if I bought 4 tickets, what would the overall probability be of me winning at least something?
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 5 жыл бұрын
With these tickets you basically just add the probabilities. So, if with a pick 3 you have a 1/1000 change of winning $500, then if you buy 4 you have a 4/1000 chance. If you buy all 1,000 combinations of numbers, you would have a 1000/1000 chance, or 100%.
@aaronparnell31
@aaronparnell31 5 жыл бұрын
@@BurkeyAcademy Thank you
@HappyBeeTV-BeeHappy
@HappyBeeTV-BeeHappy 2 жыл бұрын
I’m not buying it.
@takinglsonwinning5493
@takinglsonwinning5493 7 жыл бұрын
Exactly like Tom Hanks, lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooo.
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 7 жыл бұрын
Well, since everyone thinks that, now I have to find a way to make money off it somehow... read bedtime stories?
@TheQueenChingAling
@TheQueenChingAling 7 жыл бұрын
Nothing in this video actually helped me other than it told me what the chance of me hitting Pick 3 and that ain't good!
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 7 жыл бұрын
How else would you like the mathematics of lotteries to "help you" other than to show that you should not play it? I didn't really get into those details, but there is no strategy, no luck... in the long run everyone pays much more than they will ever get back- the accounting books for the lotteries prove that! I know this is hard to understand, the lottery designers do this on purpose to scam more money from more people (similar to the science of addictive plinko/slots/etc.) There are only a rare few gambling games where in rare circumstances you can expect to make money. Though you CAN apparently make money selling number picking systems to suckers (just as you can make money selling real estate Million$$ systems). ☺
@jabbarbrown3089
@jabbarbrown3089 3 жыл бұрын
Try the 317 369 n 888 methods. Great results for me in the pick 3
@justinking5964
@justinking5964 4 жыл бұрын
I have a theory to be verified by intelligent people. sb cares to know
@quality333
@quality333 6 жыл бұрын
what the hell is he talking about?
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 5 жыл бұрын
This is statistics, as it clearly says in the title. What were you expecting?
@CHEVCHEV-yk8rv
@CHEVCHEV-yk8rv 5 жыл бұрын
The Lottery is Fixed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@SUGAR_XYLER
@SUGAR_XYLER 5 жыл бұрын
Exactly. I clicked off at 1:27🏴
@jackiejohnson6533
@jackiejohnson6533 2 жыл бұрын
Did not understand the problem.
@lillygant139
@lillygant139 3 жыл бұрын
Too messy
@siphomkhize65
@siphomkhize65 3 жыл бұрын
This is powerful
@ronaldsandiford739
@ronaldsandiford739 2 жыл бұрын
Very nice presentation. But it really does not work that way when it comes to the lottery. We actually play a machine which continues the same cycles that are varied slightly.
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 2 жыл бұрын
In some places that might be true, but where I live I actually showed you the random process that generates the draws.
@noeumdin8637
@noeumdin8637 7 жыл бұрын
Tom hanks??
@BurkeyAcademy
@BurkeyAcademy 7 жыл бұрын
Stats is like a box of chocolate... kzfaq.info/get/bejne/h9N9e7Nnr965ZKc.html
@SUGAR_XYLER
@SUGAR_XYLER 5 жыл бұрын
No, it's Forrest Gump 😁
@kristopherhicks2779
@kristopherhicks2779 6 жыл бұрын
Ha ha
OMG😳 #tiktok #shorts #potapova_blog
00:58
Potapova_blog
Рет қаралды 4 МЛН
The day of the sea 🌊 🤣❤️ #demariki
00:22
Demariki
Рет қаралды 93 МЛН
My little bro is funny😁  @artur-boy
00:18
Andrey Grechka
Рет қаралды 11 МЛН
Poisson Distribution EXPLAINED in UNDER 15 MINUTES!
14:24
zedstatistics
Рет қаралды 301 М.
But what is the Central Limit Theorem?
31:15
3Blue1Brown
Рет қаралды 3,3 МЛН
Lottery-Winning Maths
1:00:55
Gresham College
Рет қаралды 252 М.
Conditional Probabilities, Clearly Explained!!!
10:56
StatQuest with Josh Starmer
Рет қаралды 193 М.
The Binomial Experiment and the Binomial Formula (6.5)
10:06
Simple Learning Pro
Рет қаралды 65 М.
The Central Limit Theorem, Clearly Explained!!!
7:35
StatQuest with Josh Starmer
Рет қаралды 741 М.
Binomial Expansion .Form 3
12:44
JANE HOPE
Рет қаралды 4,6 М.
Intro to Conditional Probability
6:14
Dr. Trefor Bazett
Рет қаралды 1,2 МЛН
Bayes' Theorem, Clearly Explained!!!!
14:00
StatQuest with Josh Starmer
Рет қаралды 340 М.
OMG😳 #tiktok #shorts #potapova_blog
00:58
Potapova_blog
Рет қаралды 4 МЛН