The effects of the downturn are beginning to sink in. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy, or not?

Geeze Jon you've been the only one being truthful, respect brother

Great video especially for the young first time home buyers

You're incorrect about wages needing to double in Canada. After tax wages have to double. So wages need to triple.

CREA and real estate pumpers are pining their hopes and dreams on the BoC rate cuts. Don't be surprised to see ZERO rate cuts this year and a possible rate increase.

Those percentages dont make sense. Vancouver is far more expensive than Toronto and salaries are lower last I checked. Vancouver is only affordable for Chinese money launderers.

Great Analysis. Supported with histotical Facts. Really Great. Thanks Jon.

Very thorough analogy…..fantastic work 👍. I’d say….you’re spot on! These Toronto home prices are unsustainable especially with the condo glut and the higher city taxation on market value squeezing the mortgage holder’s.

Many people are ignorant of the fact that we have rate cuts for a reason. Almost always as a result of bad economy or high unemployment or both.

Here's one for you Jon to lookup in Guelph. All semis 36 Simmonds sold for $1.2 million in 2022, 33 Simmonds sold for $975 K in 2022. 22 Simmonds sold for $1.085 mill. In 2022 32 Simmonds just sold for $725 K. In 2024. That's a terrible drop they all just got FAQED. 😮

Interesting, I rent in one of Toronto’s most desirable neighbourhoods, Riverdale, and have recently seen properties for sale that are listed easily 25% below highs, like 1.5 mil instead of 2, consistently remaining unsold…. It feels gloomy out there, but we shall see.

Jon. I love your posts. I really do think that, if we're all honest, the real reason house prices are so hi is the fact that money launderers are buying billions of dollars in Canadian real estate which drives up the price of houses. Add to that the fact that the government of Canada does very little to mitigate the situation despite the many warnings from its intelligence sources.

Anyone that thinks that housing will stay that low needs to give their head a shake. As soon as rates drop, prices will go back up. Over the past few years, the housing market has shown how much people are willing to pay for housing. It’s only a matter of time before prices go back up.

Very informative and valuable video! Thank you. Would love to hear your view of real property prices now compared to data in 2019, prior to the pandemic. How much has it changed?

Absolute support for your work!

I'm glad your channel exists so we can know the true facts without any FOMO inducing BS.

Really interesting with the historical data rate cut graphs. Thanks Jon!

I like country wise analysis. Human nature is the same everywhere... This video impressed me and I subscribed to the KZfaq channel. Thanks

You are awesome , Jon...!!!

Jon is so good. Imagine, an honest realtor!

Thx for the update Jon.

Great video thanks

Love the data John! Thank you

I agree, I would of thought a higher drop percentage for Vancouver.,prices are insane here and we haven't dropped as much as Toronto has the last 6 months.

Government bailouts such as mortgage payment deferral option during covid and the current negative amortization relief have so far managed to avert the necessity of forced home sales. These bailouts have direct impact on the supply.

Jon , I really value the historical data that you are using as examples. Do you have any examples where prices went up after interest rates were lowered? Maybe in other countries, etc?

Rates will not be lowered for a long, long time sir. The punch bowl has been removed from the party, and will be gone for a very long time. The unnecessary lowering of rates instantly to zero, overnight, during Covid, was possibly the worst mistake in the history of the BOC. We’ll be paying for that mistake for a long time. Good video, thanks.

Attaching affordability in major centres to income is asinine in equity driven markets…. No one is buying the median home price with a minimum down payment. What a joke. Comparing the average first time home buyer purchase amount to income would be more relevant.

Jon, thank you for showing the stats. Can you please cover Calgary? I can't find any info on Calgary. I'm looking to buy in Calgary. Don't know where to find stats like yours. Thanks.

Recessions and job loss John. that is the trigger. Rate cuts are the response to the job losses. Superb analogies though. great data

Thanks for the data backed video

I hope you’re right. I’m banking on prices dropping, as I am able to buy now. I’ll be waiting till next year for the purchase.

Thank you for such an insightful analysis on the current housing market dynamics, especially focusing on the impact of interest rates on housing affordability and market trends across Canada. Your detailed breakdown of the relationship between house prices, wage increases, and the historical context of interest rate adjustments provides a clear and comprehensive perspective on the challenges and opportunities within the housing market. It's particularly interesting to see the data and examples you provided, highlighting the lag time in the effects of interest rate cuts and how they correlate with housing prices and mortgage arrears. Your analysis not only sheds light on the complexities of the market but also offers valuable guidance for potential buyers and investors, emphasizing the importance of timing and economic indicators in making informed decisions. Looking forward to more updates and insights in your future videos.

Unfortunately the income is not going to double over night, which means some people will lose their homes. People are already struggling with mortgage payments.

To be honest with all the covid mortgages coming up in 25-26 think there will be even better buying opportunities

I see your data and your argument (well made and logical), whats not part of that data is real-estate agents hype that of the media and even the Inet and panic buying by people locked out of the market and people refusing to lower prices. My friend put in an cash offer on a piece of land he know what the buyer got it for and is offering well above. its been on the market for 8mths with out a offer and its pretty remote. the seller still thinks things will jump up again and will not budge. thing is many bought remote for the better price and they could work at home thats changing but the attitude is not on average - I truly hope prices drop would love to move all this is slowing down my changes but I dont have high hopes to much greed

Thanks for your honesty (a rare thing these days).

I subscribed for the most honest analysis.

So in case interest rate went down, what u forecast about house prices in Toronto to decreased or otherwise.

Thanks for the data, a big fan of your channel. I’m hoping your forecast on future lower prices is correct, we need affordable housing in this country. I’m becoming less convinced that lower prices will continue. I’m not sure your data considers things like what the unemployment rate was during these historical events. This has a big impact on local prices. Your data seems Canada wide as it relates to interest rates. Another big missing piece from your data is immigration during those events. Things seem different now. Housing shortages will mute future price drops in my opinion and demand is high with investors sitting on the sidelines doing the math on rent prices to see when to jump in. I think even you are surprised at how little prices have changed in certain areas of the country. Would you have predicted a year ago that Calgary prices would be higher now vs the peak. Mortgage free home ownership is at an all time high these homes will not be sold, certainly not in a down market. Highly leveraged homes is now a smaller percentage vs historical. To summarize we have some unique aspects happening now that do not align with historical events. It might be worth taking your data one step further and see if these other metrics are available.

Love the Tron shirt.

Great video John With this great information you either own the btokerage or your boss is angry with you

The only mix might I add was I remember when post 2008 in Victoria the market was very soft for a long time. Probably at least 4 years which your chart agrees with. But only issue we have right now is places like the west coast etc. are experiencing extremely low vacancy rates. Some towns I follow such Tofino/Ucluelet/Squamish/Chilliwack have literally nothing to rent out unless you want to pay an arm and a leg. Now I know these things take there time to work through the system but I don't recall record low vacancies in 2008/2009.

Love the honesty backed with data. One thing i don't think you took into account however is the supply issue. There are many buyers on the sideline eagerly waiting for any drop to take place. While I agree interest rates are going to take care of a few borrows stretched, the supply crunch isnt getting any relief for at least another 18-24 months. Until then new buyrs will take advantage of lowering interest rates, keeping prices sideways or higher imo...Despite that said, i'm one of those buyers on the sideline eagerly waiting and hope prices crash like they popped in 2021.

Great video!

I see the charts in which home prices decline as rate cuts start, but I'm struggling to understand the logic behind it. Can anyone recommend something I could read to understand it?

Nice background. Life has indeed become one big Monopoly game. Never liked the game as a child and the older I get the more I feel like walking away. Round and round the board we go until all wealth is concentrated in the hands of one person and everyone else goes bankrupt--yes, a really fun game!!!!

This is what i think too - if they lower rates prices will start going up again. The 2yrs of rate pain was for nothing. We need rates to remain where they are with some small increases. We do need the prices to drop an additional 30-55% this may take time. Only then and after some time small and infrequent rate declines . what do you think?

Jon would you consider talking about reverse mortgages? I have seen considerable advertising from companies such as CHIPS ,but I have also read some articles that suggest these can become a nightmare down the road.

Thank you for another very informative video . In Ottawa there are still bidding wars for anything that is even remotely reasonably priced. I don’t know where this is going to lead …

Hey Jon, really appreciate your videos. I keep hearing property prices are going up right now, is this a lie? I don’t know what to believe anymore.

What data do you mean when you say "it doesn't support this" because it seems there are alot of demand. To me, it seems people are only not buying because they are waiting... or can't afford it.

Either home owners are loosing some equity, or we are all dealing with inflation (wage-price spiral), or some combination of both (stagflation), there are no other ways around to fix affordability.

Does your data support how many houses being built during those cuts and also how many more immigrants coming in which equals to more demand?

Thank you for your informative video. I have a concern that there are more immigrants here in Canada plus shortage of housing. Do you think price will be dropped like it was in the last circles?

Since December prices gone up in st catharines. The last 3 weeks houses are getting sold quickly. We are seeing people competing on homes and sellers are holding offers. Please explain?

Love the optimism but prices and or affordability aren't going to go down in a way that makes an impact to regular Canadians. At best, it will be a slow grind down until BlackRock is on balance and adequate competition has been consolidated. Then they will take the market up again and dump on unsuspecting citizen buyers. Rinse and repeat until they own everything. The housing market has been captured by big money and they will treat it just like the stock market going forward. When they say we will own nothing and be happy, they mean it. Except the happy part.

As someone who lives in Calgary, where prices have continued to climb through rate hikes, should I expect continued highs as rates start to decrease?

@jonflynn appreciate your effort.. i live in KW area and i see a sudden surge in prices and bidding war has already started... there are so many ppl waiting to buy and this demand will be always higher due to influx of huge immigrants in last few years and will be continued as it looks like ...so if there is always high demand and low supply how will the price come down?

I'm no expert, but the shortage of available properties due to mass immigration likely will not drop the cost too much. Year over year many areas are now slightly up after bottoming last Jan, and some provinces are even up as high as 20%, interest rates or no. The only thing keeping people from buying is rates are predicted to drop. My place in Ontario is still up by 30% from 2021, despite having dropped 20% from the all time high. Despite my thoughts, I hope you're right.

The American CPI came in hot yesterday. I have no clue why people are expecting huge cuts this year and I think it was crazy that the Fed even mentioned rate cuts. I won’t be surprised if we see no cuts this year. And when they do start cutting it will but because the economy will be in recession. Great charts Jon. How in the world do people get mortgages at these prices?

Mortgage differential only applies to fixed mortgages. Variable is 3 months interest

That sounds like some good timing. Around 12 months is when i expect crypto markets to top out, would be great if housing market was bottoming at the same time. Any smart investors would sell all their housing stock, put it in crypto for a year, then buy the houses back at a discount with their gains.

I live in a 2 M dollars houses neighbourhood, houses still selling however three families are living in one house recently sold. We have seen nothing regarding how creative people will become in order to get in the market.

This time around different in Canada due to inventory

How do you explain the trend in the GTA and GVA over the month of January and February? Seems like there's some bidding and a price increase of 10%? What you just explained is logic. Let's look at the situation in the UK at the moment - they're in a recession and the front page of each newspaper has to do with the timing of when central banks will cut rates. Have we asked ourselves that maybe the demand, pent up demand, and high immigration numbers here might cancel out the outcome we're expecting i.e what you explained in your video?

The new generation of homebuyers dont see debt as a risk or negative anymore. People are buying $75k vehicles at 6% interest and dont seem to mind.

And the Okanagan always thought they were so insulated from price drops since "everyone" wants to move here. Haha!

Jon do you know any RE agents in BC that reflect your same honest views? I'd like to follow any one that you recommend, the area covered does not really matter its more about the honesty. Thanks a million!!

Cuts aren't bullish in a weakening economy with a rising unemployment rate.

As a home owner I don’t want my house value to drop. No home owner wants that. That will cause many to lose their homes because the banks will want the difference paid if mortgages were higher than after house price drop. So, it must be higher wages. But ai will reduce jobs. Outcome? Crash or add a minimum income plan?

In 2014 I was 33 and had close to 30k saved up for a down payment on owning my first property. I hesitated due to very cheap rent I was paying in a great neighborhood (The Annex) that was super cheap ($1100/ month) and not wanting to be tied down to Toronto due to the garbage winters. FF to 2024 I’m now 43, still renting and due to the disgraceful housing market here, will likely be renting the rest of my life. Anyway I wanted to let you know I still watch all your videos since discovering your channel despite being an observer and not a participant in the market . You seem like a rare genuine personality in this space and I’m patiently waiting for the housing bubble to pop and hoping you’ll be the one to point it out in a future video ;) For perspective, rental prices in Toronto have literally doubled since those days in 2014. Wrap your head around that… a 100% increase in just 10 years.

Why would prices fall after interest rate cuts?

This doesn`t account for supply and demand. Back then things were balanced, now supply is really low and demand is really high. This will drive prices up.

This doesn't make any sense, Canada is different from the other countries you mention. We need to ask ourselves why the prices are so high in the first place? Lack of inventory compared to incoming imigration, there is just not enough suply for the demand, that's why prices are so high. The only way to regulate is to construct way more apartments, more than the numbers of new immigrants, or to control the price of the square metter on top of prohibiting over biding. If you think prices will drop in the next year, you can wait forever. Especially once the rates drop, the biding war on big cities is going to go crazy.

Yes but the chart in 1992 does not have 1 million immigrant a year in Canada, this is the difference now, supply and demand...

Its call demand and supply. Canada doesn't built so whit the high demand price will go up. How hard its it to understand

where is the home buying quadrant you presented in previous video???

47% of the homes sold in the GTA last month. Empty or Tennanted. That's up 50% over last 10 years to a peak. What does that mean? Homes bought to flip, then rent, are now hitting the market. As landlords are paying $2k to have someone live in the home/condo. Rest assured, there will be a rush for the exit. Once people realize the next chance to sell is in the fall. Lol😂. Spring market is going to be met with higher rates and falling prices.

40% are investor purchases in Toronto... Vancouver is mostly CCP money... I see it happening. Investing is all emotion. When losses go over 30% they head for the door. STUDENTS are not coming... these slumlords with greasy mortgages will go pos. Will be an interesting year.

I looked up my IRD and its like -23,000 . what does that mean lol...

BC houses are not single families. Most have 2-3 suites rented to cover their mortgage

Don't think the prices of houses are going to drop enough. There are too many factors on why they were increasing. Money laundering Over leveraging mass purchases International students Big corporations buying Foreign investment Rich kids/parents passing on houses or buying more. You should look at Sarnia ontario. For peaks and compare.

Thanks for the great videos and for actually caring about housing affordability and the people. Misha

Spot on.

I renewed it recently. Went up 40% from $500 to 700 per month for a condo in downtown mtl. It doesn’t look that huge but later realized that it’s 40% more.. Oh well..

Based on the charts you presented, I agree with your analysis. But, is it fair to assume that the crazy immigration numbers and the associated demand for housing will keep house prices high till the demand for housing is met?

House prices are definitely an issue

Cu n Tuesday! Great video!

Get ready for "The Great Canadian Real Estate Train Wreck" coming to a neighborhood near you

How much it will drop really depends on the job market .

Hello jon. If as a first time home buyer Im planning to buy my first house in a few weeks because to me its cheap. Its a nothing special house and never really thought of it as something to make money. Obviously i like saving money and wanted to know what you thought a better way for an interest rate for me would be right now? 1 year at a bit higher rate or 5 years at a bit lower rate. Im in canada btw. Thanks. Also can someone explain to me why rate cutes cause job losses amd recession?

The analyst also said that he's afraid that we are too late to fix markets like Vancouver and Toronto. We may simply have to get used to the idea of unaffordable housing in some markets.

Why are they lowering rates? Wouldn't make sense for our Gov to raise rates even higher?

Your videos are so informative, Jon! Does anyone have a recommendation for an Ottawa agent with the same honesty and knowledge?

What about Edmonton prices

Interest rate normalization, would have prevented the real estate boom. 6-8% normal. Real estate needs to be slightly less than usa real estate prices. The short term rentals has skewed the real estate sector. Investors, low rates, and new short term rentals.

God forbid it happens like you predicting majority of people that own a home would go bankruptcy. This is unbelievable I don’t think this is gonna happen. What do you think?

Nice if prices say dropped by 35% would the bank knock of 100k from my mortgage? That sounds fair

Prices can drop 50% and it’ll still be twice as expensive as it was 5 years ago -_-