Can TLDR Predict the General Election Results?

Рет қаралды 60,423

2 күн бұрын

Use code 'BITETHEBALLOT' to get a discount off your Too Long order: www.toolong.news
It's election day! In this episode, Jack is joined by Zac, Georgina, Ben, and Rory, to discuss and try to predict general election results.
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Our mission is to explain news and politics in an impartial, efficient, and accessible way, balancing import and interest while fostering independent thought.
TLDR is a completely independent & privately owned media company that's not afraid to tackle the issues we think are most important. The channel is run by a small group of young people, with us hoping to pass on our enthusiasm for politics to other young people. We are primarily fan sourced with most of our funding coming from donations and ad revenue. No shady corporations, no one telling us what to say. We can't wait to grow further and help more people get informed. Help support us by subscribing, engaging and sharing. Thanks!
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00:00 Intro
02:09 Predictions: Party Seats
34:05 Predictions: Who Might Be Losing Their Seat?
38:20 What are the Other Parties Doing?
42:42 Outro

Пікірлер: 509

@TLDRpodcasts 2 күн бұрын

Quote retweet with your predictions for a chance to win a copy of Too Long: x.com/TLDRNewsUK/status/1808496614136287366

@spadegaming6348 2 күн бұрын

the big one.

@dfgt-su9ki 2 күн бұрын

white socks everybody.... i can remember past history days that it was soooo not done!

@user-dr8kx1yt9y Күн бұрын

I think the greens won the seats they were hoping for

@arcane_spark Күн бұрын

why Twitter?

@alfredlamowen 2 күн бұрын

I think Count Binface will have a good showing in Richmond and Northallerton. His vote share will increase by infinity percent

@johanneskarlsson3859 2 күн бұрын

😂Matt Parker

@ajwright5512 2 күн бұрын

@@johanneskarlsson3859 To quote the band Make Believe: "One is so much more than none, than two can ever be than one."

@NZAnimeManga 2 күн бұрын

It'll be amusing (read: infuriating) if Rishi is saved by fewer votes than Binface wins😱

@jeddgangman4502 2 күн бұрын

Isn’t Niko omilana still running there?

@FRIDGEYTHEGOAT 2 күн бұрын

Count Binface has got Kim Wilde's approval!

@Kill3rballoon 2 күн бұрын

Forget the predictions, I just want to see Zac and Ben bicker over Ed Davey’s increasing elaborate stunts 🤣

@charliecampbell197 2 күн бұрын

There is almost no chaos.this.time compared to the Brexit election. Turnout will be way lower.

@shaesmith2831 2 күн бұрын

I’m a former Green Party member and Rory is basically 100% on what the green party’s strategy is. At least it was when I was a member. The greens have focused on local elections more than national elections. The greens won Brighton because they had quite a strong presence on the council and they’re hoping to replicate that across the country. They know they can’t win massively at national elections and they often just split the vote therefore they focus on a few seats they think they have a chance in. Last election I remember a lot of focus for the greens was the Isle of Wight. I’m very interested to see if it’ll work this time, if the greens win 3 seats they’ll see this as a massive win.

@tomrogue13 2 күн бұрын

That's something that the third parties need to learn in the US. Work on the lower local elections instead of trying to win the presidency or a governorship

@dkaloger5720 2 күн бұрын

Damn the predictions were way off , but Rory was the closest

@dralseth 2 күн бұрын

Vote Starmergeddon for new podcast name.

@CashelOConnolly 2 күн бұрын

What does this mean

@dralseth 2 күн бұрын

@@CashelOConnolly for the last 2 prime ministers they have reviewed the first 100 days of their government and the podcast has had different names. "Truss issues" "rishi business" I think they should call the next one "Starmergeddon"

@CashelOConnolly 2 күн бұрын

@@dralseth it’s very tabloid

@animatechap5176 2 күн бұрын

@@CashelOConnolly ok

@swymaj02 2 күн бұрын

The Big Rissue was it@@dralseth

@spynosocks 2 күн бұрын

honestly i think this podcast underestimates how much the right have been angered by the conservatives, they hate the tories more than labour because they think that the tories are literally traitorous and that they've been lied to for the past 14 years by the tories

@senorwhite4295 2 күн бұрын

True, that’s basically my view

@cazman182 2 күн бұрын

Now reform will get the honour of being the right's hopes and dreams that ultimately become traitors in their eyes?

@jaisriram295 2 күн бұрын

No that's not true they still hate Labour more than the Tories ...more likely to vote Lib Dem than Labour

@mrsomeone846 2 күн бұрын

I think that’s because they’re all left-wing or left-leaning in their personal beliefs, they probably find it very hard to comprehend that people are unhappy with the because the aren’t conservative enough. I don’t blame them though, I even find myself agreeing with a few social democratic policies these days.

@spynosocks 2 күн бұрын

@@mrsomeone846 yeah i don't really blame them either, a dissaffected right wing ex-tory voter will not vote tory at the ballot box this time around because they despise the tories so much

@davidoleary2564 2 күн бұрын

For anyone interested in the predictions (after they finish watching) they were: Margins of Error: L=10 C=5 LD=3 R=2 G=0 SNP=2 Turn=1 Rory. L=431 C=101 LD=67 R=2 G=3 SNP=25 Turn=66 Georgina. L=450 C=91 LD=65-68 R=1 G=3 SNP=17 Turn=65 Ben. L=450 C=98 LD=55 R=2 G=2 SNP=20 Turn=63 Zac. L=440 C=80 LD=70 R=10 G=2 SNP=35 Turn=64

@beacnjones24 Күн бұрын

Results still coming in (about 60 left), but... Labour by these predictions has choked it. And that's after they took all of Wales except 4 and robbed the SNP blind. Tories managed to pull enough votes to exceed TLDR's predictions somehow Lib Dems are currently just shy of Georgina's line, but above Ben. Rory and Ben have the Reform point. All the Green estimates were off. The SNP margin for error was closer to reality than any of the predictions. They had a truly terrible night.

@BrandonBDN Күн бұрын

Only guessed the libdems (70), conservatives (115) and reform (5) correctly.

@joemcmahon206 2 күн бұрын

Paywalling the largest political event of the year seems...bold. Your live stream would attract tens of thousands of avid viewers, you could sell a tonne of subscriptions in that time.

@TLDRpodcasts 2 күн бұрын

I do fully understand this argument, and it's something we obviously discussed at length in the office. I think we're just aware that if it's a public stream available to everyone we need to spend way way more time preparing and organising. We're obviously going to do the absolute best we can tonight regardless, but as it's paywalled the stakes are lower and we can use it as more of an opportunity to talk directly with the community instead of a 'proper' election broadcast. We did the maths and preparing a full broadcast would not only take days of our team's time it would also reduce our video output while we were doing so, offsetting the financial benefit of making it public unfortunately - Jack

@joemcmahon206 2 күн бұрын

@@TLDRpodcasts That makes sense, thanks for taking the time to reply. Hope everything goes well with the stream :)

@ChrisMcFarlanee 2 күн бұрын

Agreed! Shame I can’t watch it

@joshboz6125 2 күн бұрын

Agreed, very odd decision.

@keech100 2 күн бұрын

@@joshboz6125 What's weirder is I think there above explanation is if your paying for it its okay to have less quality and put less effort in?!

@awalkingchris Күн бұрын

The only person who got a point for the party seat share was Zac with the LDs😂😂

@ChrisMcKennaCMK 2 күн бұрын

Georgina looks so uncomfortable sitting there. Blink twice if you need help Georgina!

@robo3007 Күн бұрын

I think you guys greatly underestimated how popular Jeremy Corbyn is

@peterdollins3610 2 күн бұрын

Tories upper end 41 to 48 seats. Low end, 3 to 23 seats. Lib Dems 67 to 80 seats. Labour? Massive.

@thedoye1239 2 күн бұрын

3 low end!?!? I think that’s a bit too optimistic

@archockencanto1645 2 күн бұрын

ZERO SEATS!

@mum2jka 2 күн бұрын

While I like your seat numbers for conservatives that will never happen. As the podcast pointed out, people - especially older generations - are predictable when it comes to voting.

@BrandonBDN 2 күн бұрын

My prediction: Labour 0-650 Conservatives 0-650 Liberal Democrats 0-650 Scottish National Party 0-650 Reform 0-650 Green 0-650

@matthewparker9276 2 күн бұрын

The highest number of Conservative seats that would surprise me is 632, but I don't think thats what jack was asking about.

@MarcusHagh 2 күн бұрын

I’d be even more surprised with 650 on a Northern Ireland write-in campaign

@131scavy 2 күн бұрын

My greatest daydream is after the election if the LDs aren't the official opposition that enough Labor MPs switch to LD to keep the Tories from being the opposition

@rdsmokey3723 2 күн бұрын

"a Georgina smile" gave me a giggle.

@TheChemistryTutor 2 күн бұрын

Great podcast as always, love watching Ben and Zac go back and forth. Also I think it’s hilarious that Zac feels so comfy at the office to be chilling in his socks while recording the podcast.

@martinschmidt1652 Күн бұрын

Wow where they wrong...

@Aragornofmoria 2 күн бұрын

Zac was definitely playing it less safe

@edrickdudang1344 2 күн бұрын

I think you guys should do a format where you all have small whiteboards then in a 3-2-1 count, everyone reveals what they predict put down. Would be more engaging I think haha.

@alfiemckeough3762 2 күн бұрын

2 episodes in a week? Oh you spoil us

@DrJayPlays 2 күн бұрын

You pay walled your biggest event by £20?! Ahahhaha

@PerlogAnnwyl 2 күн бұрын

I really like your analysis. My only issue with the whole thing is you've ignored Plaid Cymru the entire time. Probably they will have the same vote share of the greens but campaign on the same issues as SNP but Wales.

@MartinWilliams-s4x 2 күн бұрын

Completely agree, Plaid has been in existence for a lot longer than the Reform party

@westoncraig 2 күн бұрын

i remember waking up to the Brexit vote and i could not believe it. I don't expect labour to get the numbers that we are thinking but they will win

@maccagrabme 2 күн бұрын

Vote Labour and we are going to be in a far worse state than even now. All mainstream parties are controlled and are taking us down the same path to ruins.

@pevebe 2 күн бұрын

@@maccagrabme reform all the way

@captainnice1881 2 күн бұрын

@@pevebeHear Hear 🇬🇧➡️

@tabbymoonshine5986 2 күн бұрын

@pevebe yeh let's swap one round of right wing party of filth sleaze and liars, for a party of FAR right, racist sleaze and lies. Why are men obsessed with the far right

@blindpanda6211 2 күн бұрын

I think their predictions here will be as accurate as it was about Russia not invading Ukraine.

@MatthewJBD 2 күн бұрын

It's disappointing that your live stream is behind a paywall

@thesliveringsnake4133 2 күн бұрын

exit poll looking crazy for those predictions :D

@chesterdonnelly1212 4 сағат бұрын

Exit poll was also wrong 😂

@mreluard3632 2 күн бұрын

Asides from everything, loving Georgia's Shoes today. Most swag

@oliviaaaaaah1002 2 күн бұрын

Georgia's cool leather shoes vs Zac's bare socks is such a funny contrast

@gregs3845 2 күн бұрын

I don't care to make any prediction other than Count Binface will win.

@jbrooks1358 2 күн бұрын

Winning Party: labour # of Labour Seats: 446 # of Tory: 99 # of Lib Dem: 70 # of Reform: 10 # of Green: 1 # of SNP: 24 Does Sunak Keep his Seat? No Does Hunt Keep his Seat? No Does Corbyn Keep his Seat? Yes Does Galloway Keep his seat? Yes Turnout: 50%

@hdruk1 2 күн бұрын

Does Count Binface win a seat?

@jbrooks1358 2 күн бұрын

@@hdruk1 count bin face?

@axelnils 2 күн бұрын

@@jbrooks1358One of the candidates challenging Sunak’s seat is our intergalactic lord and savior, Count Binface.

@HyperFlex924 2 күн бұрын

if I buy the (Digital) Premium Edition, does that still work

@allanbrown4802 2 күн бұрын

thanks for all your input guys

@jasper265 2 күн бұрын

I predict it'll take you guys more than a week to release the episode with the results of your predictions. Zac will be in the office at the point you record it, but you'll still record it with less than five people.

@kduarte6136 2 күн бұрын

My only question is if there will be more Labour/Co-operative MPs than Tory MPs.

@locorum9103 2 күн бұрын

I was surprised by how similar my predictions are to Zac's! I'll just post them here for posterity: Labour 430 Tories 120 Lib Dems 50 SNP 35 Plaid 4 Reform 4 Greens 2 Independents 5 I wrote this out a few days ago, and on reflection the SNP and independent predictions are probably a bit high.

@riprocky90101 2 күн бұрын

Do people think Starmer is socialist? He seems like a blue man in a red tie to me

@locorum9103 2 күн бұрын

Rightists call everyone 'Marxist' now, but they've been calling people socialist for longer. To them it's basically just an insult, I think. They're so far removed from the actual ideological foundations that it doesn't matter.

@glyngreen538 2 күн бұрын

He said he was a socialist the other day. I’m a bit unsure but let’s see what he’s like when he’s in power?

@glyngreen538 2 күн бұрын

He said he was a socialist the other day. I’m a bit unsure but let’s see what he’s like when he’s in power?

@Draggonny 2 күн бұрын

Nobody is still fooled by Starmer. Willfully ignorant maybe. In denial absolutely. But best wishes to all who hope to stick it out and reclaim Labour for the workers.

@tobypettit6417 2 күн бұрын

I’ve bought the magazine, how do I access the livestream?

@mum2jka 2 күн бұрын

John smith - he may have died suddenly but he was well loved and was Scottish.

@MidwestArtMan 2 күн бұрын

I'm expecting Reform to outperform expectations. One thing I remember from by-elections was a seat or two that Labour flipped after 100 years of being Tory. The thing is, the Tories lost more votes than Labour totaled. Labour's year-over-year vote count hardly changed; they just had 2/3 of Tory voters not show up. If all of those people instead voted for a single party (unlikely, of course), that party would have won.

@olivergille8305 2 күн бұрын

Reform will get 12-20 seats imo. The 'shy reform' factor will be very big and the younger right wing vote will be a massive swing from Tory to Reform. (Im in my early 20s and people Ive known for years as diehard tories since childhood all hate the current GOV and have flipped to reform)

@jogreeen 2 күн бұрын

Definitely a shy voter factor, also you have to get the filthy rats to actually vote.

@bigships 2 күн бұрын

Probably the same with shy Lib Dems as well due to the fact people still hate them for the coalition (although to a lesser extent). Going forward we’ll probably end up with a 3 party system once electoral reform is achieved, Labour on the left, Lib Dems in the centre and Reform on the right.

@NZAnimeManga 2 күн бұрын

Same 7-18 is my expectation for Reform.

@tabbymoonshine5986 2 күн бұрын

@olivergille8305 A horrifying thought. I hope not

@NTL578 2 күн бұрын

@@tabbymoonshine5986Yes, because their Left wing, open border future has been looking so rosy so far...

@jackkaraquazian 2 күн бұрын

I don't see how the greens could do much better considering how locked out of the media they are most of the time, this is one of the small windows where they really get to put their message out. I'd also say their message this time is quite different to what it has been previously, they're now seem more solidly on the left. They're pretty dependant on proportional representation being brought in to make any advances.

@Draggonny 2 күн бұрын

I like what they've been doing in terms of tactics. They've really broadened their manifesto over the years so they don't come across as eco loonies or one trick ponies. They're embracing KZfaq, Tiktok, and social media to reach a bigger proportion of the voting population as the traditional news channels and papers don't give them a look in. They've recognised that it's younger voters that care most about environmental issues and that these young voters don't follow current events in the same ways as previous generations. Rather than following the lead of their competitors they're moving in a bold new direction to appeal to those who feel abandoned by the major parties. Political ads and leafleting campaigns cost money but likes and shares are free.

@JMK948 2 күн бұрын

Just in time.

@MartinWilliams-s4x 2 күн бұрын

Very disappointed you didn't discuss the prospects of Plaid Cymru, who have more MP's in Wales than Reform, the Liberal's and the Green Party ,otherwise i enjoyed the podcast

@lolosity314 2 күн бұрын

Great podcast! (not that i’ve watched it yet but i’m sure it is)

@CashelOConnolly 2 күн бұрын

It is,vote Labour for a better future ✌🏻🌹🚩

@KanwarGurnazWander 2 күн бұрын

@@CashelOConnolly Labour is already winning, vote Green💚 to save Mother Earth♻🌳🌍

@morgand5605 2 күн бұрын

I'm with Zac on these predictions

@BonJoviBeatlesLedZep 2 күн бұрын

This isn't a real TLDR podcast, nobody is wearing short pants

@kieranfrancke790 2 күн бұрын

I bought one. But I didn’t get anything can you help?

@HolyRainbowism 2 күн бұрын

I just voted Reform, not so much for now but rather for the future, five years from now.

@yanivcassuto4198 2 күн бұрын

What do you think about the rate of independent candidates success?

@TartanCatholic 2 күн бұрын

I think, like the Brexit vote, many pollsters are failing to factor in the effect of the usually non-voting electorate on the Reform vote. Combine a galvanised Reform voting base with general voter apathy for the main parties/complacency from Labour voters, and I think reform could do significantly better than many(even myself) give them credit for. Labour - 419 Conservatives - 82 Lib Dems - 66 SNP -35 Reform - 18 Plaid Cymru - 3 Greens - 3

@Codeexcited 2 күн бұрын

Zac Zac Zac! I didn't actually write predictions myself(in part because I don't twitter), but I appreciate his shit distuber(Canadian for.. pot stirrer I think is the closest?) points especially the voter turnout numbers, Scotland, and the Torie seat share. I do think it is interesting how close the labour seat share estimates were, with the diferent tory libdem and snp seatshares. I didnt do the math but I wonder how peoples estimates would have changed if theyd done the math or, had made regional estimates and then added them up.

@darren8453 2 күн бұрын

I've watched this channel since near the beginning, and all I say with confidence in this election is: the only person living their best lifw more than the Lib Dem Leader is Jack, suppressing the biggest grin at the end there. Thoroughly deserved, all of you 👍

@cdub31613 2 күн бұрын

You reckon Sunak called the election because of the EU elections and he felt left out? 🤣

@jakep5442 2 күн бұрын

I think you’re all incorrect on the Reform vote. I reckon they’ll be the biggest surprise of the night

@zivkovicable 2 күн бұрын

Maybe, but anything above four seats would be a surprise under first past the post, even if they get more votes than the Lib Dems..

@bigships 2 күн бұрын

True, Reform will probably end up getting around 20-30 seats which would push the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories and make them the opposition, which would be a good thing in the long run as they want electoral reform, similar to most parties other than the Tories

@zivkovicable 2 күн бұрын

@@bigships I'm not in the predictions game, but if Reform get 20 seats it would represent the biggest failure in polling history. Reform would consider five to be success, particularly if Farage was one of the five. .

@bigships 2 күн бұрын

@@zivkovicable I’m pretty sure 20 is the highest prediction for Reform, and will almost be certain if they get 23% as a few polls predicted

@FRIDGEYTHEGOAT 2 күн бұрын

@@bigships even with 23% they suffer from FPTP so that might not equate to many seats as a result

@DiscoCol 2 күн бұрын

I think that you are underestimating the level of apathy out there. I don’t see tactical voting as the factor that it used to be as I reckon that with the outcome as close as it can get to a certainty: people are either going to vote for who they actively support or they will stay home and not bother. How good or bad the Tories do will not be about defections and protest votes as how many of their traditional voters just stay at home.

@reluctantheist5224 2 күн бұрын

I want to see a swingometer...needs a swingometer.

@ChrisMcFarlanee 2 күн бұрын

On the Scotland section, the history of Labour winning pre-dates the Scottish independence vote. Where Labour campaigned incredibly hard on a platform with the Tories to remain in the UK. Everyone who wants independence does not forget that. But most UK journalists seem to…

@MichaelNelson-it9mf 2 күн бұрын

Correct. The Pro Indy vote is not going to switch to any English party Labour gains will be won on the back of Conservative Tories switching their alliances which is why they are continuing to work together in Scotland as one party.

@connorwatson9245 2 күн бұрын

Good point. But opinions can change. Independence isnt a priority for anywhere near the portion of the people as it has been. It'll be interesting to see how Indy polling changes after 5 years of a labour government. The big litmus test of whether or not we just hate the tories (and naturally are more Anglo sceptical if England votes majority tory), or the population has a long term 50/50 split regarding the union (not a for/against argument for indy). Interesting times

@MichaelNelson-it9mf 2 күн бұрын

@@connorwatson9245 You cant say that without the result of a referendum which is the point of holding one. The Scottish Gov wants one the English Government is doing everything it can illegally to prevent it so clearly they believe they dont have a majority and they're keeping their own extensive polling result secret in spite of 2 court orders to release them. A terrible Labour Government will push the rest of Scotland over to the pro Indy camp for sure and we're absolutely heading for a terrible Labour neo Tory Government under Starmer.

@MB-ed5ef 2 күн бұрын

Zac makes the best points imo 😌

@Running_Colours 2 күн бұрын

Small inquiry, but i think it would be cool if you guys spent a little time talking about northern Ireland again. You didn't talk at all about the resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson at the DUP, and not about the evolution of the political landscape since then. With the DUP crashing down and Sinn Fein potentially confirming their status as biggest party in NI, and Ireland as a whole.

@bronim7311 2 күн бұрын

Way to go Ireland. One of the few countries with any morality that is left in a world that is otherwise bankrupt.

@marechaldempire1377 2 күн бұрын

Sinn Fein are in opposition in the Republic of Ireland, so not the biggest and at the moment they’re polling the same as Fine Gael (one of the governing parties in the ROI) and they underperformed massively in the Irish local elections so I don’t agree with them being the “biggest party” in Ireland as a whole.

@Running_Colours Күн бұрын

@@marechaldempire1377 they still have the largest number of seats in the Irish parliament, but I'll concede to you that their position is fragile. Still, I'm conviced that this is a fundamental topic, that TLDR really failed to cover lately

@teelo12000 2 күн бұрын

Whats the UK law on publishing stuff like this on election day? Here in NZ we'd (theoretically) get in trouble for publishing anything election related on polling day (although enforcement is another question).

@jamessmithson-br7rm 2 күн бұрын

Well TLDR are an entertainment platform not proper journalists… so can do what they like I suppose

@teelo12000 2 күн бұрын

@@jamessmithson-br7rm So is John Oliver but he couldn't air his episode 2 weeks ago in the UK

@JM19649 2 күн бұрын

The front page of every paper today is election related... There is no law against it

@pevebe 2 күн бұрын

we do what we want m8

@gawkthimm6030 2 күн бұрын

@@teelo12000 this isn't "airing" in the UK, so no problem

@dannyarcher6370 2 күн бұрын

I hope GG gets kicked out

@Mrcheekymonkeyisback 2 күн бұрын

just bought the toolong, digital version:)

@Mrcheekymonkeyisback 2 күн бұрын

how long will it take i get it guys?

@Mrcheekymonkeyisback 2 күн бұрын

+ i hope to join the live stream later this evening

@JakubS 2 күн бұрын

It has to be a "premium copy", whatever that means

@Mrcheekymonkeyisback 2 күн бұрын

@@JakubS well i got the unlisted video to their stream but I still dont have access to the too long material.

@JakubS 2 күн бұрын

@@Mrcheekymonkeyisback they haven't written the newspaper yet

@Tresidentevil 2 күн бұрын

I think the extent to which the right are angry with the Tories is being underestimated. These voters are making emotional not pragmatic choices.

@chaphidoesstuff 2 күн бұрын

Reform will be alot higher than people think

@MB-ed5ef 2 күн бұрын

Wow these guys are not that in touch with the wider country.

@chesterdonnelly1212 3 сағат бұрын

Yes they are definitely in an echo chamber.

@marcisvijups5544 2 күн бұрын

Should have asked the panel who are they voting for

@blair2798 2 күн бұрын

Where's Nadia?

@TheKnexMaker 2 күн бұрын

intresting guesses on voting turnout. I think it will be over 70% because 2017 and 2019 were only 2 year gaps and people were getting fed up. we have almost a full parlement of 5 years now and a lot more people are fed up and wanting to vote

@Draggonny 2 күн бұрын

I agree. After so many unelected PMs this parliament, I think we're all itching to get out and vote.

@sirsnipermonkey 2 күн бұрын

Bought your magazine for the access then I watched the end of your video and you say “premium version” ffs

@kuhinde 2 күн бұрын

anything more than 60 seats for the tories will be a victory for them

@maccagrabme 2 күн бұрын

As a brexit voter can't wait to see the back of them. Reform only for me.

@joewilson4191 2 күн бұрын

@@maccagrabme. First Brexit, now Reform? Oh dear!

@spiderfandom7592 2 күн бұрын

I am not spending £20 for exclusive access to live coverage when I can watch sky news lol

@lordmartinak 2 күн бұрын

then don't

@Minimmalmythicist 2 күн бұрын

Labour will thrash the Tories, that´s certain. The most interesting questions are : Will Reform win any seats, Clacton I think is a given now, and they may win some in other seaside towns and possibly the UK rust belt (though Labour still have quite a lot of the White blue-collar vote, unlike the EU left parties). The other is whether the Greens will pick up any seats, in Bristol they have a decent chance, and perhaps in some other uni-constituencies. Also, there is the question as to whether Galloway and Corbyn keep their seats. It´s possible but far from certain.

@maccagrabme 2 күн бұрын

One person Sir Nigel Farage in parliament is enough to cause a major shake up in the commons, no more slacking and Reform becoming a household name very quickly for future elections.

@Minimmalmythicist 2 күн бұрын

@@maccagrabme they´ll get a fair few votes, though probably very few MPs

@bigships 2 күн бұрын

@@Minimmalmythicist they’re stuck in the same trap the Liberals were stuck in under Thorpe in the 70s, getting around 20% of the votes yet barely getting any seats (I think the liberals got less than 20)

@FRIDGEYTHEGOAT 2 күн бұрын

for sure reform suffers hugely from FPTP so although they may receive a high percentage of votes Im not certain how many seats they will actually win. My guess is about 3-8

@_2true 2 күн бұрын

Based Zac

@jonburnett90 2 күн бұрын

I worry you're heavily underestimating reform... The amount of media coverage they've had these past weeks is ridiculous for such a small party. In contrast I think I've seen a rep from the greens like 4 or 5 times, and I'm in a very lefty echo chamber.

@glyngreen538 2 күн бұрын

Yeah blame the media! I hope Labour bring in some manner of media reform to redress the balance a bit (it would be in their interests given how heavily right wing and against them there majority of the UK media is). I reckon Greens have a decent chance of winning Bristol having been out campaigning for them today.

@InfoBB 2 күн бұрын

Just been a polling station full of what looked like 40 people under 25 all singing "oooo Nigel farage" crazy

@Srindal4657 2 күн бұрын

Fortunately I got to the polling station before anyone else

@jogreeen 2 күн бұрын

Sure, that sounds true.

@_2true 2 күн бұрын

This is why I fell Reform will surprise. There are so many Reform voters that pollsters won't even realise exist.

@AlTarif 2 күн бұрын

I would love that to be true lol.

@simoneworsley6882 2 күн бұрын

@@_2trueI think that. I'm so worried about it

@intoxxy 2 күн бұрын

I think Jeremy Corbyn will withhold his seat, considering how his grassroot support has really backed him on every sides and since a lot of people were confused on Corbyn not running on Labour + polls showing there's no chance tories will win on their constituency will have a greater chance of people supporting him at the end and leading to him winning in the end

@bronim7311 2 күн бұрын

I hope so. He is one of the few who are saying democracy can only be rebuilt at the local level, and the bringing together of communities. It's the only way to bring power back to the people. The divisiveness among people has been deliberately manufactured, imo. There arent going to be any quick fixes, and this is really the only viable way forward, whatever ones political views are.

@intoxxy Күн бұрын

Yeah Corbyn won

@charleslynch340 2 күн бұрын

I think you guys over-estimate just how much people care about elections, particularly regarding things like majorities. I reckon like 25-30% at least only care enough to vote but not enough to vote strategically.

@mattiepunk142 2 күн бұрын

Your predictions shock me but to each their own. I recon Greens will get four seats, Bristol Central, Brighton Pavilion, Waveney Valley & Isle of Wight West. Lib Dems will take the opposition as Reform splits the right vote. Taking over the swathes of the ultra rich southern constituencies. SNP will suffer greatly in favour of Alba and or Labour. I recon Plaid Cymru will do well in Wales but not well enough to beat Labour.

@colinmccarthy7921 2 күн бұрын

Could the Raving Loony Party form the next Government.

@CharlesTysonYerkesOfficial 2 күн бұрын

Official Monster Raving Loony Party coalition with Count Binface.

@Draggonny 2 күн бұрын

Still a better government than the Tories.

@theshybiguy2908 2 күн бұрын

The reform manifesto: 43:28

@Dardobul 2 күн бұрын

In my polling station, ibwas told today thta pass cards, such as the citizencard, dont count as ID. given citizencard exists purely to be an official form of ID, and is listed on the sheet at the front as an acceptable form of ID, im curius why the card exists if it doesn't prove your identity, and its existence as a form of free ID was a big part of how tories got the voter ID through in the first place!

@joshuadixon-harrison4674 2 күн бұрын

I loved some of Zacks predictions, even though I didn't agree with them all 😅, I think I was most in line with some of Ben's predictions 😊

@drscopeify 2 күн бұрын

Historically incumbent (is that a word used in UK?) parties and candidates tend to out preform which is usually corrected in polls but that only works well when data is stable and it has not been. My guess would be the Conservatives at 120+ maybe even in the 130s simply due to people making a choice last minute that rebounds the numbers. We shall see though.

@veraxiana9993 2 күн бұрын

Other than disagreeing on Corbyn losing his seat & thinking the reform party will get a few less seats than 10 I think I agree with Zac on most of the questions

@patricklim2136 2 күн бұрын

Whatever the experts say, it will be the opposite 🤷‍♂️

@iGamezRo 2 күн бұрын

I propose Larry for PM and Lord Buckethead for Chancellor.

@adriancox2705 2 күн бұрын

There is simply no point asking left wingers whether people will vote Tory or Reform. They just don't understand the psychology of a right wing voter. So I'd say, find some explicitly right wing voters and ask them what they think

@ricardothorburn4089 2 күн бұрын

If the Lib Dems get within 20 seats of the Tories would the Lib Dems be able to make an aliance with the SDP to form the official opposition?

@gawkthimm6030 2 күн бұрын

the second largest party is automatically the opposition

@jehib8533 2 күн бұрын

The SDP does run a few candidates, but I doubt they'll get any seats (and anyway, if they do, they're more aligned with Reform nowadays). But I suppose you were thinking of the SNP ;-) Anyway, I don't know if the rules would allow two parties that were standing against each other in quite a few constituencies to form a joint parliamentary party, but I doubt that either of them would.

@Nayland007 2 күн бұрын

Yeah good podcast but not paying for the one tonight. Channel4 for me 🙂

@keithreynolds 2 күн бұрын

I think a lot of SNP vote has been to protect Scotland from the Tories in Westminster? Scotland has always looked to Europe more than England? how can corbens previous voters vote for someone who wants to privatise nhs and has personal financial interest in doing so? Gaza may have a big influence on some seats eg in Birmingham... and George Galloways?

@Stebealinator 2 күн бұрын

Sky News forecast was interesting for a number of reasons, including a glaring error where the Labour and Liberal Democrat increases matched the Conservative seat decline, but the decline of 30 seats for the SNP didnt seem to go anywhere? Maybe a wee oversight.

@wasteddragon8201 2 күн бұрын

I watch you because you're not the main stream media. Interesting to find out your viewership probably vote reform!

@thomash6497 2 күн бұрын

BTW are you looking to grow your audience or are you happy as you are? Yous can’t seriously be planning to hide behind a paywall as people channel/platform hop looking for engaging content? Give your collective head a wobble.

@anebawoods5442 2 күн бұрын

27:32 completely agree with Zac - tried to vote & organise with Greens & they said, don’t need you here, come to Bristol 🤡- yeah so voted elsewhere - also very good analysis on SNP.