Was wondering about this lol, that would have been crazy

I was just about to ask what happens if Dandy settled on the 9-12 to give orange road. Makes sense to still give dandy the win since it was on his turn

Yep, iirc the rule is you have to claim the win on your turn. Orange couldn't win until they got the dice again.

Orange would actually lose at 11 vp 😂 ; dandy could have persuaded him to give the resources to do it

I was thinking the same. The turn prior he said he though orange was on the verge of ploughing him. Idk why that would have changed

And 6s were dead early,

He pooped twice? Didn't hear that one...

@@markusseifert6712 he had taco bell earlier in the day

😂

Remember - Those who are having fun have at least a .5+ point advantage. I enjoyed taking some more riskier lines but the 7 was crushing me :(

nop, but maybe could have tried trading to get an extra brick or a sheep... maybe they would have not trade him a sheep but with one extra brick he could have ported it. ... then as you say roadbuild to drop another setlement

I just discovered this video now but actually he did not have the win as he only had 1 road left in the bank since you can only build 15 roads.

I love how you frame it in terms of EV. Catan is very similar to poker from a calculating probability standpoint.

Ripping the sheep allowed me to control the development cards on the board and secure army right there. I don’t mind clearly the sheep in that situation to stop the board from popping. If I knew orange was going to roll into perfect 2 roads to plow me, I would have handled that situation differently but hindsight is a thing.

I don't think the sheep mono was bad, but porting for a brick to secure the 3:1 port was probably the better play compared to popping twice

Hindsight is funny like that but I also missed rolls and the pull at the end. Super close!

Yes hindsight is 20/20 and as we all know, The Dice Gods rule on the Island Of Catan. They are also extremely fickle and we must constantly court their favour. Thanks for all the great uploads lately!@@dandydrew

Pretty sure the rule is that you can only win on your turn so orange would’ve been at 10 points but lost haha

@@joshflood9274 so if he was only at 9 points after settling, will orange only be at 10 points at orange's turn?

Got to brush it off and move on. It was a great game and had a lot of fun strategic moments!

Nevermind this would have required him to trade four identical resources to get the sheep he needed, leaving him with no brick. I'm stupid, sorry for the noise

No need to apologize. I appreciate you being here!

Thanks for this comment and consideration. With the nature of a game like Catan, it’s impossible to have everyone agree with all the plays you make and I certainly don’t claim to be mistake-free, even while playing at the highest levels. This topic brings up a very interesting conversation about risk and reward because I think there are times you have to take calculated risk to get the most out of the situation. Considering orange had no cards after my 2 pops, the only way I get plowed that orbit is 2 very specific rolls back to back and it happened (4 into 8). So the question is… What is more likely? I survive and get a brick to drop the road (potentially even extort with my knight if needed) or he rolls perfect rolls in 2 turns to plow me? In that sense, it’s a fair calculation that is heavily in my favor and why I decided to maximize my sheep into devs. Good players understand the importance of taking risks when it usually leans in their favor. It’s easy to call out a decision when it goes wrong like the plow but most of the good calls we make usually go unnoticed because it seemingly “just happened”. We know we played the odds in our favor in those situations and it didn’t just happened by mistake. All the best! 😎

After rewatching that part I think you indeed made the better play. It was just a very unfortunate thing. The chance is indeed less than 1/36 of him rolling exactly what he needed. It just feels so weird to buy one more dev instead of going for the security. Your odds of getting a brick in one of the next 4 rolls is 45%. Looking forward to more vids. @@dandydrew

@@philippebekkers3225AWESOME breakthrough here! 🎉 I didn’t do the exact math but after years of playing, I knew it was in my favor. This is a great insight for you to take with you as you play and grow in the game.

That's what I was thinking through most of the end there. There was like 3 rounds that he could've got a city, especially at the end with the plus 2 card.

This was a bit frustrating. The timing of the rolls and blocks just didn’t coordinate well for me in terms of getting road materials.

Man the other day i was on coordinated 6s and 9s for OWS. A guy was on 9 points before i even bought a dev XD@@dandydrew

I was jamming to Roosevelt's latest album "Embrace". Roosevelt is one of my all time favorite artists!

​@@dandydrew doesn't sound like what's playing in this video, Roosevelt is a funky disco vibe but this is more like a lounge jazzy track

@@dundeedideley1773 I got you! I edited in the Jazz music after due to copyright issues with playing most music. Here is the soundtrack I used kzfaq.info/get/bejne/r5d2qNl92ZjOl40.html&ab_channel=maxrelax

Always a fun scenario. A player can only win on his/her turn. So if I settle for 10, I win even if I give road to another player at 10 points. It’s rare but it happens from time to time.

Didn't know that, thanks for the explanation! Great video's! Keep it up!

You win as it is your turn

I figured but that be wild imagine u do that for 10 and give someone 11 they have more points but u win lol

Good catch! If I know black is going to knight and block orange, I need to make sure he has a card in hand to steal. If I take the one card from orange and then black plays knight, then I am the one who gets robbed!

@dandydrew ah that makes sense! However i wonder if its worth the risk of pissing off black. I know in lower levels that risk is high.

@@leonardhui2657If you think of it as a decision tree of possible moves, the optimal play is to rob black because if I don’t, then I am guaranteed to lose a card. So pissing him off or not, it doesn’t really change much in that way.

@dandydrew ah that makes sense.

Orange had zero cards and needed exactly 4 and 8 to plow… he got it. It was a calculated risk and like my chances get the 3:1 road in the next orbit.

@@dandydrew obviously hindsight 20/20 but isnt getting on that port kind of a win condition for you with how out of balance your OWS ratio is? Like wouldnt it be better to think "how do I lose this game here" rather than think the odds of it happening are low? Which I agree they are low and it was very unlucky that those exact rolls happened, its more im asking whether you had the wrong mindset in that moment. Also kind of a side question but do you think you would have made the same play in a tournament match against top players? Or would you have made the more careful play of securing the port?

Yeah I get it but with those pips being more freq than not the second pop doesnt seem worth it when no1 is on your tail to take army. Especially if you wanted to sneak road earlier before blue/orange went at for their win cons 100%.@@dandydrew

@@sauceploxx4565 In that situation the table might feed orange the plow too

but they didnt since orange goes b4 him and he popped after he went b4 the plow. Him putting 4 devs down definitely puts him as a threat to be plowed for sure. @@DanielSong39

That was a DylLighted move Why get a city when you can pop 5 times trying to get the victory point

The deck was still viable with RBs, monos, and multiple VPs when I popped 3 times. Also pulling VPs means there are less for others to snag so there is some defensive value if you grab the right cards. I was playing for this higher reward/risk line and it didn’t work time.

@@dandydrew My bad, I thought 2x dev that you had was for resources not road building. You did the best thing!

😂 Of all the comments you could share, you are most interested in complaining that I put all the wheat hexes together in a thumbnail?!

@@dandydrew The game is entirely different when you have that setup, no? I think my complaint is valid, considering what a plague clickbait thumbnails are. Quit doing it.

​@@dandydrew Seconded. Leaving the video sad and let down :(

Every video!!!