Chain Binomial Model for COVID-19 spread

Рет қаралды 2,469

4 жыл бұрын

Explains the very basics of the Chain Binomial Model, a discrete time stochastic model, that can be used to model the spread of infectious diseases (say Coronavirus/COVID-19) in small neighbourhoods (household, schools, block of apartments).

Пікірлер: 9

@JaGWiREE 4 жыл бұрын

Amazing as always. Never thought of this type of model, but it seems simple and effective

@quantpie 4 жыл бұрын

Thanks Brian! Yes indeed a very simple and effective, and a very classic model that John Hopkins used to teach in the first part of the 20th century!

@JaGWiREE 4 жыл бұрын

@@quantpie Sent ya an email :-). Any chance of multi state markov process in the future? I hear these are very useful in credit risk modelling and also in medical related processes like cancer.

@quantpie 4 жыл бұрын

@@JaGWiREE sure. We shall do some credit and statistics/machine learning!

@Zorothustra 4 жыл бұрын

I really like the model, it's simple but interesting... I think without too much efforts, it can be further developted... say, introducing some conjugate prior.... may be there is an analytical solution? otherwise many simulation methods can then be employed... anyway, nice animation and sound effects! Thanks for sharing!

@quantpie 4 жыл бұрын

Indeed the model has got some 'capability'! It was conceived independently in academic and practical settings, so it is very natural, and can sure can be further developed. Most of the quantities of interest (e.g., duration of epidemic) are quite easy to calculate when it is recast in terms of Markov chain. And when fitting the model using maximum likelihood, one gets an implicit expression, which is relatively easy to solve for p numerically.