Much easier with ten 36s.

You would be surprised by how many people raise shove the river. Also i think the nut flush should be raised in the turn, to go all in in the river, i feel like he lost so much value there

There is very little upside to showing your hand. The arguments players make for shoeing is poorly thought out. And every player at the table gets information about your play. Not a good idea.

Ugh. I hate spots like this. I think I disagree with Bart about the flop (and turn) bet sizing. I think I might like to bet small here, to keep my opponents' range wide, so they can have all the 1P/2P and smaller flushes, and also so they will want to raise me with their flopped sets, and maybe want to raise me with their nut flush draws. I don't want to bet this flop or turn huge, and have to fold to an x/r, or continue against a very strong range that includes better made hands and very few worse hands. If we take smaller bet sizing on flop and turn, then I think it makes it much harder for V to extract max value. He can tip his hand strength by raising turn, but then we can comfortably fold if he barrels big on river. If he just smooth-calls our turn bet, it's going to look super-weird if he donk-leads huge on the river, but even then, the pot will be smaller, so the big river bet will be smaller. The way this was played, it's hard for me to find the over-valued hands. 89 maybe, but that's a hand some V's might raise on turn, to get value before a 4th diamond on the river. Likewise, it's hard for me to find the bluffs. I'd think all the bluffs would have the Ad in them, and there again, those hands might want to donk-lead or raise turn to rep the flush, knowing that they're either going to have to barrel the river on a brick, or miss value on a 4th diamond. When hero is the PFR, c-bets flop, AND barrels turn, I really don't like V's river donk-bet with the nut flush. Hero is going to barrel off here a lot, allowing V to go for a check-raise or just call hero's jam. Sure, opponents are going to call with the 2nd nuts a high percentage of the time, but we're taking away the opportunity for them to continue bluffing or barreling with a worse hand for value. I still don't know how often I'm folding here. It would really be player dependent. Considering I recently called off a river donk-lead with top set after a 3rd flush card came on the turn, I don't think I could fold very often here. The last time I folded a K-high flush (to a check-raise, not a donk-lead), my opponent showed me the naked ace as a bluff. That one still stings.

true. I exclude bluff as a possibility here. (Bluffing into all-street aggressor is a lose-lose position). So: it's a value bet. If I do not know that the opponent is LAG or a whale, I'd easily fold here, and never look back.

@@1vailchris I definitely agree with you that villain misplayed the hand. He must go for a check-raise at some point. As to calling here, I think it's fine. Hero has a strong enuff hand to bluff catch with. But I do think we lose quite often. The main reason I'm bringing up a fold possibility is that I actually liked Bart's analysis right up to the moment he said he's obviously calling the river. I think it's fine to call, but against a fair number of players I'm folding pretty comfortably. The fact their is no check-raise. The texture of the board combined with hero's holding. The sizing villain took. The fact it's a river donk. I don't see many bluffs taking this line. Hero's hand is strong, but I think we lose more often than win here. It's hard finding many logical bluffs. And the only over-value I can find is 98dd. And as I said originally: hero blocks AT so strongly.

@@EllieBanks333 I agree with you. I think most, if not all the hands we beat when V donk-leads the river are going to x/r on some earlier street, unless V is a maniac turning some hand with a lot of showdown value into a bluff, which seems very unlikely and over-the-top maniacal. It just doesn't make sense for V to check-call, check-call, then suddenly decide to donk-lead big on the river as a bluff. Even with some AdXx hand, I think the bluff is relying on hero being able to fold the 2nd nuts to this bizarre line V's taken. If we're in V's spot with AdXx, and we plan to bluff the river, I think we need to start that bluff on the turn, when the flush comes in.

Fold now.

This is actually a very reliable betting tell from weak players when they have a strong hand. It's very heavily motivated out of a fear of losing out on value.

@@captzachevil Yes that's what Bart said too, but would villain have gotten more money on average in this spot by check-raising? Sometimes we don't want to do something (like donking on river) because while it increases EV in a particular spot, it causes us to give up even more EV in other spots. In this specific case, it seems that not only would it be more balanced to check-raise, it also would have gotten villain paid off more here.

I think it's a bad idea to raise the river because your opponent having A high flush he will call whatever you rersise so that would be bad for you.

@@dgolfere-wgt5194 right - but I'm asking if the villain in the hand would have been better off check-raising rather than donking

So you get to play once or twice a year??

@@skelthouser2730 nah I play in Portland three times a week. But I grew up on the coast and always go to chinook every year.

I liked playing at Chinook and Spirit Mountain. Pisses me off they both shut down their poker rooms.

@@skelthouser2730Yeah there is a ridiculous shortage of poker rooms in the valley and the coast.

What draw missed here?

@@EllieBanks333 the naked nut flush draw, but my point was that in general river leads are polar. Whether it's a brick the whole way (usually a bluff if the flop has good draws), just a river brick (sometimes a bluff, sometimes a turned made hand), or a nut changing hand (sometimes a bluff, usually thick value). People at 2/5 level simply don't lead rivers with thin value.

@@EllieBanks333KJ and J9.

@@JohnSmith-nx7zj KJ no diamonds? If the villain was a LAG, I missed that part of the call. J9 with 9d? That's maybe more LAG. If I had some kind of read here, then fine I call & cross my fingers. I think this is exactly what it looks like. And not to be results oriented, but it turned out to be exactly what it looked like.

@@EllieBanks333I’m not saying it’s super likely. KJ no diamond seems fine as a flop call. But calling turn and donking river would be a pretty odd line. At the end of the day I think you just have to call river here unless you know villain is the biggest nit in the world. You can’t be playing good poker if you’re folding here as a general rule.

Villain definitely made a mistake by leading the river. Villain could have gotten all the chips, possibly. Unless villain thinks hero is too nitty and won’t value bet hands like AK, QJ, TT, etc.

Who cares about the royal flush draw? Hero has a strong hand anyway. If the A of diamond came out on the river, then hero should be annoyed as there are almost no hands that can call him anymore.

@supersmoo7377 Fair pt re what could villian call with if royal flush gets there..he could still potentially bluff at it. And hero goes from 2nd nuts to nuts ofc..but yeah your pt is sound. Do some venues have a jackpot for royal flushes ?

It's a mistake. Hero has a lot of hands that bet river that end up folding instead when the river is donk led. I think 2nd nuts might be the only realistic call you'll ever see actually. I find it hard to see that making up for all the river bets you lose by donk leading.

​@@supersmoo73779 d could have came

Players who limp call from up front and flat from the small blind are not coming up with optimal strategies lol

@@AdrienneVirginiaS you missed the point, and it doesn't matter. Bad recs are going to call down wider when we bet small, or tip their hand strength when we're beat.

I don’t know where you play, but most live players are continuing on flop and turn with all the hands you listed with a 66% pot bet, and a 66%-100% turn bet. You WANT to get all the money in when your opponent has QJ, JJ, 77, AK, etc on the river when you have a high flush.

@@supersmoo7377 You misunderstood. Read what I wrote again. I think we should bet smaller because we want opponents to call with a wider range. Even Bart said that when V calls flop, he's weighted towards top pair or better. The more we bet on flop and turn, the stronger our opponents' ranges need to be to continue on each street. When we bet 2/3 pot on flop and 2/3 on turn, most opponents aren't continuing with a lot of very weak hands. Of course we want them to call our river bet when we have the 2nd nuts. But they have to GET to the river first. And they're not getting there with very many weak hands, the way this was played. When we take this larger bet sizing, and it goes check-call, check-call, donk-big or check-raise, we're almost never winning against V's range, because V's folding out the weakest parts of his range along the way.

@@1vailchris bro you’re missing the point… These specific players made blunders preflop and we can safely assume forcing pocket 77 into indifference with a nuttish holding is not the most profitable play against button clickers.

Ummm, did you not watch/listen to the video????

Yes that makes sense. I once folded second set on a flop because the guy was literally flogging himself under the table. Never would have considered it in a million other hands but I said to the guy you have AA or JJ and I can beat everything but JJ. Folded face up and the table goes insane and the guy showed JJ top set. It's obviously a horrible fold but you had to see this guy at the time.

He trapt me.

​@@wheresbarry1434 not really, you had a solid hand...he just bested you. It happens, that's the game.

@@arte9855 Ahhh you didn't get the references to a movie me an op were making.

He probably would have raised that on the flop.

no clue what this package means

It was a question, not a statement

who's going to answer "no" when they're calling their hand in