Deep Dive 16/07/2024 - Heat and tornadoes - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

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Deep Dive 16/07/2024 - Heat and tornadoes - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

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Күн бұрын

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. After a somewhat disappointing start to July, we are going to have a glimpse if something more summery before the changeable and cooler weather returns. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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Пікірлер: 239

@barnard162 Ай бұрын

Sunshine seems to have been in very short supply, even on the dry days we have had a great deal of cloud.

@keithrussell1146 Ай бұрын

Alex A deep dive hosted by You, is always extremely informative and watchable, even where the weather content can be very disappointing. Nice to see you also suffer from tech presentation issues - same stuff we all sometimes have , Thank You.

@Ludva978 Ай бұрын

You should report cloud cover statistics. I don't think it's been particularly rainy but it's been cloudy almost every day this July.

@metoffice Ай бұрын

Oh yeah I mean to. You’re right we’ve had about 45% sunshine when we’re about 49% of the way through the summer

@rysc12345 Ай бұрын

@@metofficeespecially in the North East. Since last summer there seems to have been a shift to more clouds coming off the North Sea April - July

@DzogChen2 Ай бұрын

Another great Deep Dive - thank you all so much for these, I get so much out of going into the weather in a little bit more depth!

@jeffreybogue-collis7808 Ай бұрын

Bugger off with it being drier this summer, it’s rained pretty much every day, I haven’t had a camping trip or festival where we didn’t have to pack away wet gear, had to wash my bike much more due to riding in the wet. Never known a summer like it😢

@Pixieworksstudio Ай бұрын

You need to understand averages.

@stephenkerr7454 Ай бұрын

Understand reality!!@@Pixieworksstudio

@woooster17 Ай бұрын

Riding pushbike or motorbike? As a chap with a few motorbikes I am fed up with this constant wet, miserable weather 🌧️👎🏼

@Grover91 Ай бұрын

June, although BLOODY FREEZING for the most part, was really, really dry. But other than that, it's been bloody wet.😂

@MrTonyHeath Ай бұрын

Language, Jeffrey!

@EdMcF1 Ай бұрын

In Gothenburg Sweden, they love summer, they say it's the best weekend of the year.

@indianjoe52 Ай бұрын

Always makes me laugh how a couple of days of hot weather is classed as a heatwave in the UK.

@Kevin-vc9nw Ай бұрын

We still have the last 2 weeks of August and September to look forward to if we get an Indian summer

@auldfouter8661 Ай бұрын

When I was watching the later stages of Live Aid ( 13th July 1985) I went out to check on the calving cows about 11pm. It was absolutely coming down in torrents . It rained so hard from then on that by 30th July we had to house all the milk cows. July had 7 inches of rain , August continued with over 8 inches and 9 inches fell in September. It was the worst farming year in Scotland that most people had seen. The oldies talked about a " year with no summer " in the 1920s as the previous worst. We had increasingly bad years in the new century - 2012 and 2017 were awful.

@typhoon-7 Ай бұрын

Hello from the Highlands. I didnt get the memo that autumn and summer had been swapped around.

@Mykst Ай бұрын

@@DanielDepp What's brain washing about it? Red means hot and blue means cold, this is nothing new. In winter forecasts you'll see plenty of blue.

@stephenkerr7454 Ай бұрын

@Mykst think you'll find they favour deep reds these days. No need!

@Mykst Ай бұрын

@@stephenkerr7454 Liking your own comments doesn't validate what you're saying. If the temperatures are hot then the colours will reflect that, the same way if they were cold. There is no *favouring* of any kind, just forecasting the weather as it happens.

@margarethughes3763 Ай бұрын

Exactly

@johnmulligan912 Ай бұрын

@@112seagullin Britain it is.

@ehrenmanner9772 Ай бұрын

Hello Alex, thank you very much for that deep dive! I enjoyed especially the global view. But believe me you don't have to race through your presentation: we have waited a whole week so we do like watching every minute!😊

@causewaykayak Ай бұрын

Really interesting. Im so glad we are a bit cooler and don't face a water shortage or a wildfire. Thanks for putting it all together -the effort is much appreciated .

@tymc2564 Ай бұрын

Yes summer so far has been the worst in a long long long time!

@Jamesthesnail Ай бұрын

Since last year you mean

@auldfouter8661 Ай бұрын

2020 after the exceptional Apr and May during lockdown turned very wet from mid June through August.

@Kevin-vc9nw Ай бұрын

2012 was a washout and last year was jot great

@user-xe2cp3gt7q Ай бұрын

Almost as bad as last year

@Notasmurf-vw6to Ай бұрын

I’ve noticed that months January, March and April’s 2024 CET stats have been adjusted upward by 0.1°C and June’s anomaly was adjusted by 0.1°C as well. Do you know why?

@Zinzer24 Ай бұрын

It's been raining for so long. The frog in my garden is croaking for an umbrella.. 🐸 ☔ Thanks for the forecast and displaying the jet stream. 👍

@darraghgregory1269 Ай бұрын

Weve had no summer here in Ireland only 4 days in 6 weeks

@jeanettespracklen5777 Ай бұрын

Why do you keep going on about London. Not everyone lives there

@Jake-vh6jp Ай бұрын

Relax Karen.

@bbbf09 Ай бұрын

To the 14% of people that live in London they are the ones that matter the most (or at all!) - do try to see it from their perspective!

@paulchadwick1197 Ай бұрын

Yes I agree dose my head in its not the only place 👍

@guidofawkes9377 Ай бұрын

He talked about the Highlands, Canada, Northern Ireland, Spain and India. Why get so peed off about mentioning London.

@Jake-vh6jp Ай бұрын

@@guidofawkes9377 Some people enjoy moaning just for the sake of it.

@sharonwilliams1981 Ай бұрын

Excellent video and it was great footage of the funnel cloud 😊

@lindakirk698 Ай бұрын

Not happy. Dont mind dry or even a bit cool, but really dislike dark, cloudy, no sun. Im an SAD sufferer & im having to put my NORMALLY winter time only SAD light on in the summer!!! O help i need the sun

@westyk52sparky Ай бұрын

love the break downs. i give up waiting for summer. im going in the sea tomorrow even if it rains.

@deniseatkins9407 Ай бұрын

We have near enough had half a year of rain so far 😭

@rb9580 Ай бұрын

My local met station has recorded 75% of the average annual rainfall already, with only 6.5 months of the year gone. We are also on course for 13 successive months of above average monthly rainfall.

@gillswift274 Ай бұрын

Feels like we have already had 40 days and nights Alex 😭

@rileymg4675 Ай бұрын

It feels like it hasn't stopped raining since last July in the South of the uk? Has it been a wetter than average year July 23- July 24?

@garyheard3839 Ай бұрын

Alex, great presentation from you as usual (and from the rest of the team to be fair). It seems to me that we have not been able to have a prolonged break from the dominant westerlies since August last year. Is this the case? There was a short period of easterlies, but living close to the East Coast I saw no benefit from them. Thanks again for the deep dive, please keep them going

@ruperthiggins7358 Ай бұрын

Thank Alex. Really interesting as always. I quite often look at the Contingency Planners page of the Met office website which has been ‘predicting’ quite a bias to a hot summer. It would be really interesting to have a Deep Dive on how that is put together and then what changed/shifted to the summer we are currently getting. Just a suggestion!

@WeatherFollower Ай бұрын

Hi Alex great video. Loved the global section. Maybe that could become a segment in the deep dive. Do you see any signs of heat in mid to late Aug with any global climate drivers changing to allow this? ps. love the YT Shorts you've been doing showing more behind the scenes at the Met Office! :D

@mrmidland_traveller936 Ай бұрын

Is it true that so far, this July has been the 2nd most gloomiest on record and also, the gloomiest ever the last 12 months as a whole? My solar generation figures seem to suggest that. I'm 20% down on generation this last 12 months compared with the 12 months prior to that!

@garyvisick1409 Ай бұрын

So what happened to it settling down at the end of july?

@JRT313 Ай бұрын

Has it? Yes! The weather has been shocking everybody knows it

@garrywalton Ай бұрын

Good detailed forecast as always.. taking a peek at the world weather is really good and puts our little wet blanket of an Island in context.

@Doughty321 Ай бұрын

Wow two days of summer :/

@danam358 Ай бұрын

😂

@danam358 Ай бұрын

😂

@JonM-ts7os Ай бұрын

Islands in the north atlantic mate, what would yez expect haha.

@LMinett Ай бұрын

I would love to see more global/European weather as well as educational phenomena, given there's always the UK 10-day forecast the next day.

@paultrussy4243 Ай бұрын

Hey! Look on the bright side! Of recent years we've had great weather thru early summer (May/June and early July) and then it's gone totally pear-shaped as soon as the English summer holidays kick in and the kids are at home. Maybe this year it'll be the other way round!

@machandler70 Ай бұрын

Many thanks. What about sunshine hours compared to average?

@steveflitton8903 Ай бұрын

The Met Office prediction for summer said that there was only a 5% chance of cool temperatures, and it was likely to be warm or very warm. Are these long range forecasts a waste of resources? I still don't believe the weather can be accurately predicted beyond 10 days at most. Getting it correct is more likely to be by being lucky rather than scientific. If you look at the ensemble beyond a week, the models always show a wide range of outcomes and rarely show any extremes that actually occur. The mean 30 year line is nearly always close to the average, as shown by the various models. I've also noted on many occasions how inaccurate forecasts have been on the deep dive when looking a couple of weeks ahead.

@garyvisick1409 Ай бұрын

Yes in london and the southeast have i guessed right?

@Notasmurf-vw6to Ай бұрын

You were right, it’s in the far south east corner LOL!

@kevinjones4559 Ай бұрын

First two minutes about Northern Ireland

@anjkovo2138 Ай бұрын

Worst summer

@anjkovo2138 Ай бұрын

@@JoBloggs3rd-os6se 🤣👍Yes Indeed

@alunjones3860 Ай бұрын

@@Mykst I don't know about the globe, but it's true the weather does balance itself out: when it's warm somewhere, it'll be cooler elsewhere. The models are definitely wrong, as far as the UK summer is concerned. The prediction was milder, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. The mild, wetter winters have generally been correct, but summer rainfall has definitely increased over the last 20 years and summer temperatures have only slightly increased, over the same period.

@olliechuck1 Ай бұрын

First time watcher, really informative so thank you 👍🙂

@alexpickgaming Ай бұрын

We always get a "taste" but no real summer

@moopu62b31 Ай бұрын

Great deep dive. Easy to follow and informative. Thank you

@gtp_vexd3507 Ай бұрын

Thankyou Alex. Top job. I think the pc was busy downloading an update there for a minute. You coped well 😋👍🏽

@paulmarkman5247 Ай бұрын

Hello Alex. Many thanks, as ever, for the weekly dose of weather seminar (I always look forward to it). Not sure how to word my question - it is pretty evident to me that a central driver for our weather here in the UK is the jet stream. And the jet stream marks that boundary between warmer and cooler air (and I have learned that the jet gets stronger the greater that temperature gradient). In more general terms, what key factors influence whether the jet moves further north? For us in the Manchester area I am all too aware of the fact that weather in the south east of England generally is a lot fairer, and my hope (as a lover of warm, dry conditions in Summer) is that 'something' will push that jet just a bit further north so we too can enjoy that better weather. Is it a fair question to ask what key factors push it further north? All the very best - Paul

@peanuts2105 Ай бұрын

Don't suppose you could show cloud cover over the UK. It's been very grey over Buckinghamshire. Also, could you explain why there is more rain over Hertfordshire and London? Is it do with concrete heat islands radiating energy into the atmosphere hence the higher convection? Regards

@EmilyEvans401 Ай бұрын

Thanks Alex! 😀 thanks for mentioning Turkey while you did the global weather roundup. 🇹🇷 I’m on holiday for 3 weeks in this country and it’s really hot by day and by night! 🥵 I got my ceiling fan on.

@suewright1299 Ай бұрын

Many thanks Alex, not a great summer at all so far, ok Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe a little longer might be better, we’ll see. Maybe later in the month or earlier in August just might be better, but that’s still a fair way off. Yes, compared with hotter countries, what we’re experiencing is nothing in comparison, you can’t really blame folk for comparing current summers with past ones which are vastly different. Anyway, we’ll wait and see how things pan out. Thanks a lot Alex, to the Met also. Take care everyone

@DMiddleton-bj5wc Ай бұрын

Why is the jet stream splitting up so much this Summer? - With more often than not the UK sat in between that split.Surely this is why the forecasting accuracy has dropped like a stone in recent months......always a case of jam tomorrow!

@DMiddleton-bj5wc Ай бұрын

The Temperature has certainly been MUCH ❄️ than average in the NW of England. For many days it's felt like January...... Absolutely no doubt about it! I should know since I regularly work outdoors.

@ABadSpiritToken Ай бұрын

Just because the funnel cloud isn't seen to touch the ground, doesn't mean it isn't. It does not need to be fully condensed to the ground to be a tornado. I would suggest with the lowering of the funne; that far down, it was rotating on the ground.

@quentinhordle925 Ай бұрын

definition: Tornado - A violently rotating column of air touching the ground, usually attached to the base of a thunderstorm. The angle of the shot suggests minimal air movement at the lowest extreme of the funnel cloud, AND unless you can see ground air movement, it is not a tornado.

@causewaykayak Ай бұрын

Someone by Letterkenny myst be able to attest one way or the other. What says Met Eireann ? It is on their Turf.

@ABadSpiritToken Ай бұрын

@@quentinhordle925 Yes, you've pulled a similar definition to that from NOAA, however miss the point that " Tornadoes can form and be in contact with the ground without a fully condensed funnel!" Or as the NWS "with insufficient moisture, a visible funnel may not extend all the way to the ground and still have a mature tornado." In the video, it looks as if the potential ground movement could be beyond a hill. It's hard to tell. I'm not saying it definitely is but it is very possible. Obviously we rarely get tornadoes that causes a lot of damage and no one is going to survey it to find out.

@chrisbate9956 Ай бұрын

"Not quite a tornado" puts "tornadoes" in the video title.

@ElisGriffiths-hp4xn Ай бұрын

Fantastic and very informative as usual. I look forward to the deep dive each week. Keep up the great work!

@paulnewman2000 Ай бұрын

It looks like summer might fall on a weekend this year!

@JonM-ts7os Ай бұрын

Im in Spain, summer started 2 months ago

@Oughut88 Ай бұрын

Heat Health Alert for 20 deg C at night? How absurd.

@UniversalCat Ай бұрын

So records do go back further than the usual "since records began" date.

@Jablicek Ай бұрын

They were less reliable because they didn't have the accuracy of modern recording, but they go back centuries.

@kevinjones4559 Ай бұрын

Central England Temperature (CET) goes back to 1659

@SamsVlogstrainsmore Ай бұрын

Typical on Friday 28c forecast and I have to wait at home all day for some maintenance on my house 🙄

@distancelab2010 Ай бұрын

Excellent I love these longterm forecasts. Thank you so much

@malcolmwhyte5856 Ай бұрын

I'm not that old! But even I can remember the weather from the late 70s into the 80s in Scotland. Long summer holidays with weeks of pure sunshine. We had a real winter with major snow that settled and lay around for weeks. That's why we have winter ski resorts in Scotland. The weather has changed and continues to change for the worse. Man made or polar flips - Humans have cleared the lands of ancient forests and replaced them with massive concrete jungles with tiny little dwellings that generate way too much heat. We drive our heated cars on multi lane motorways and roads burning fuel and again generating way too much heat. Everything we do regardless of how we are doing it is generating way too much heat. Don't just blame fossil fuels! Green energy is also generating way too much heat. And, every year it just gets worse and worse. If we stop generating heat, we might stand a chance that the weather settles and returns to some sort of normalcy. I won't hold my breath.

@The-great-emperor Ай бұрын

Really good presenter. Well done.

@andrewlucas744 Ай бұрын

I thought there was an element of truth in the St Swithun legend, in that by mid July, the pattern of the summer and the location of the jet stream has been set? Love the forecast - weather forecasts for grown-ups!

@leejohnson3209 Ай бұрын

Could cloud and light drizzle all day, and warmer temperatures at night under overcast skies bring the rainfall and temperature averages to levels similar to hot sunny days, cooler clear nights and heavy thundery downpours? If so could one surmise that temperature and rainfall averages are misleading, and that perhaps the biggest thing that influences people's perception of whether it's been a rubbish summer or not be the number of sunshine hours?

@ianbrown2984 Ай бұрын

Thanks for this. It’d be great to see a small section on the weather across Europe with trends etc in the deep dive.

@philiphales6057 Ай бұрын

So interesting. Thank you

@chrisa9043 Ай бұрын

Looking forward to the deep dive.

@tankgirl99 Ай бұрын

When showing the graphs looking at rainfall or temperature would be interesting to know what years hold records. Interesting deep dive once again, thank you.

@metoffice Ай бұрын

I’ll try to mention that last time though the record years won’t necessarily be the record at various parts in the season/month

@Jablicek Ай бұрын

Hello, thank you for the week's deep dive! In the temperature map at aronud 16 minutes in is a nasty-looking area in southern Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Although it doesn't specifically relate to us, is it possible to give some detail why it's so warm in those places and why this low pressure, that we'd normally associate with cold/unsettled weather, looks spectacularly unpleasant.

@Pixieworksstudio Ай бұрын

Thank you for covering Asia, I know China has been having a pretty hard time. Really interesting as usual.😃

@causewaykayak Ай бұрын

I think the west only want bad news about China and Russia. SCMP today says China is gearing up for record floods and all areas are charged with planning for worst case events. I could link you but nasty U Tube wont welcome such links ..😢 and often deletes the posts containing them..

@christinepease890 Ай бұрын

Thank you, Alex

@keeksputels1851 Ай бұрын

Aslong as my oats actually ripen n can be harvested, rather than just rotting on the stalk, ill be happy. Has been a very challenging year for growing

@Kevin-vc9nw Ай бұрын

We do need some rest bite from the rain

@woooster17 Ай бұрын

Don’t you just love technology Alex.. guaranteed to not work just when you need it 😄 I’d suggest old school magnetic weather symbology….but even Michael Fish had issues with them falling off the weather board 😂

@metoffice Ай бұрын

Bring back the magnets for sure

@Tonymason762 Ай бұрын

Dear Met Office, Great deep dive as usual! Please can you do a deep dive on the average barometric pressure over the last 12-14 months? Particularly over the eastern half of the UK. I am very aware that weather is about patterns and historical data but in my lifetime , I’ve NEVER known such a prolonged period of low pressure situations, around 14 months now. This cannot be normal?

@AndySpeed88 Ай бұрын

Will the 14-day outlook videos, which you mentioned as being in the 'UK long range weather forecast' section of the MET Office app, be available on KZfaq? I note they cannot be found on KZfaq at present.

@dougd6137 Ай бұрын

So hopefully, summer holidays will be warm and sunny 🤞

@geoffcampbell7846 Ай бұрын

Nice one. I enjoyed that. Cheers 👋

@madleon81 Ай бұрын

Thanks Alex - do we have a cloudiness metric because it’s been gloomy if not wetter in the SE … think UK needs cloudy indicators 😊

@jamesjukebox2386 Ай бұрын

Any thoughts or trends on the upcoming Autumn?

@sideshowbob5237 Ай бұрын

And I thought it was my touch screen!

@AwardedCatYT Ай бұрын

Will there be 40 degrees heat this summer if you know? Thank you. 😊

@beverleyhuish5871 Ай бұрын

St Swithin!

@endafgt Ай бұрын

Is there any stats on cloud cover. I live in North Wales and hardly see the sun these days. The weather has been cloudy cool and wet since last July.

@RobMorton-cd4ps Ай бұрын

Something forgetting to be mentioned. They think we are obsessed with the temperature s

@PhilipMurphyExtra Ай бұрын

Looks like more rain then

@julianmorgan7202 Ай бұрын

Hi, In a future Deep Dive, could you explain ‘fronts’? I think I understand hot & cold fronts, but not an occluded front (with alternating triangles and blisters). Many thanks,

@jerryat187 Ай бұрын

Thanks alex. Great 👍🎉☀️🌞🌞🌞🌞

@johncave9181 Ай бұрын

So wet on Saturday, why doesn't the forecast on your app reflect that? There's no sign of rain, just a 30% chance of heavy cloud on Monday

@Andy-wn6wm Ай бұрын

It's been what could be considered a typical British summer temperature wise pre-1990's when the warming really began to kick off.

@simonwilliams4367 Ай бұрын

1C on a monthly average is a lot of temperature.

@Kevin-vc9nw Ай бұрын

I'm wondering if the jet stream is meant to be further north of us in the summer . Then if its deveating south , something must be blocking it from moving further north. When autumn comes. I'm guessing the jet stream will think its summers.

@RobMorton-cd4ps Ай бұрын

The supposedly sunnier weather starting today is mostly cloudy with a few sunnier breaks. When are forecasts going to stop promising sunny weather when it isn't!

@margaretmaddern5443 Ай бұрын

Thank you,Alex interesting as usual,don't worry we've July's like this before in Cornwall over the year's I've seen people sitting on our beaches in coats & other people swimming & then drying off quickly & putting on clothes, as a matter of fact or though we've had rain the ground is pretty dry, it does seem the weather is upset, I've been wondering if it has to do when underwater volcano that went off in Tonga area a couple of years ago, anyway thanks again.

@stevedom1 Ай бұрын

We are experiencing a monsoonal trough with a tropical low at one end in s china sea so heavy rains & storms about 15-17th July, only around 32 C. 25 nights,

@frankkaye3852 Ай бұрын

Would like to know the sunshine hours Vs average.

@ashadams3870 Ай бұрын

Americas tornado alley has got nothing on the uk`s funnel cloud alley

@madleon81 Ай бұрын

I feel we get clearer skies at night and clouds in the day… I hope that flips and we get sunshine 😂

@BruceMesser Ай бұрын

There are only 31 days in July the last time I checked, so the 16th is more than half-way through the month.🤔

@waynelowery7760 Ай бұрын

Is there any reason why the jet stream has been tracking south of the UK for so long?

@bonehead2412 Ай бұрын

can some one tell me when globle warming going to start ive had my heating on 10 day this month

@metoffice Ай бұрын

See Spain, Turkey, Greece, USA…plenty of countries have had extreme heat recently.

@bonehead2412 Ай бұрын

@@metoffice well that not here though is it I don't live in any of though countries I live in the UK and please we need uk warning I might spend less on heating plus the solar been rubbish this month only made 78kwh last month I made 160kwh by this time and this month last year I made 358kwh

@bonehead2412 Ай бұрын

I could share my solar records for the last 13 years and my small weather station the are very detailed measurements taken every second temperature, pressure, humidity, rain ,cloud cover and type, solar irradiance

@nicholasmeadowcroft7 Ай бұрын

They are giving us false hope. This has happened all summer on long forecasts. Be pleasantly surprised if its a reality

@PDScally Ай бұрын

Any chance of sea temperatures around the coast?

@cobscamping6909 Ай бұрын

A little bit drier than average this year?!?! You obviously are not including Wales. Its been unbelievably wet. Lucky to see any sun. I've been lighting the fireas its cold.😢

@julianporter5 Ай бұрын

Are there figures for hours of sunshine?

@RWTWM Ай бұрын

Thanks Alex, A couple of questions if I may. 1) Is the enhanced monsoon the result of a special weather pattern, or is it a standard set up with a warmer atmosphere, which holds more moisture? 2) (potentially for a future deep dive) I read that there was an SSW over Antarctica ATM. It's not going to affect us, but is it actually happening, and are there southern hemisphere impacts analogous to those in the north? Thanks again!

@jimhardy1897 Ай бұрын

why do we get a yellow weather warning for DRIZZLE ...NORTH DEVON..

@trick700 Ай бұрын

It would be great if you could come up with a 3D graphic of the way the jet stream works. I don’t fully understand why it has that pink sinuous shape in 2D?