I watched dylighted before I started playing. It does make you better although there is generally less communication between players in normal online games than these tournaments. Good luck, no matter how good you are, you will still lose most games.

@@benjaminschocket-greene5629 I mean, it's a 4 player game, so expecting to win more than 50% of the time is a lot. By the way, dylighted himself has >50% win rate in rated games for the current season, so it's not impossible to win more than half of your games.

until you get ganged up on

The dice can really fuck you up even if you have the easily best setup. Imagine a Lack of 8s here and maybe even low running 4s, no Chance then!

So much else to think about considering luck: how Mans 7s and who rolls them, bad players, bad trades, bad placing decisions from the others that harm your game, „wrong“ robs, getting lucky or not with dev cards and so on

if you play with beginners and intermediate players, luck matters more. if you play with good players, luck is a non factor because you talk a lot more, players recognize who is doing better and are able to make their life miserable. dylan has a couple of videos like tournament finales where he got shit early settles, but he won because he was able to trade and get deals with the other players, while the ones with strong setups always got robbed, got plowed, etc

​@@iuliadianamarian3977 luck is DEFINITELY not a non factor. It's like poker, where luck is very influential in any given game, but over time, strong players will win more than weak players.

Luck definitely a factor, but I would assert its less than you might think. Id guess a highly skilled player playing against less skilled players probably wins 60-80% of the time. A fantastic player playing against great players can probably win like 40% of the time, which is still a lot better than the 25% youd expect by chance.

10:56

Then someone takes the 8/3/4 and he can’t compete for dev cards easily

Then he doesn't have sheep. Diversity of numbers is overrated. I'd much rather have 8 ore 8 sheep than have 8 ore 6 sheep because they pair together well. With the 8/4/10 and 8/4/3 he has double ore and double wheat anyway, plus the best sheep. Trading for wood isn't impossible (as he showed) and he doesn't need much of it anyway. He only spent 3 wood the entire game and that's pretty simple to get between trades and steals. IMO as long as you have wood OR brick it's relatively easy to get the other as needed. I think the best counterargument is the one turn where Dylan popped 4 devs. That would never happen if he didn't have sheep income. Even if he had both ore and wheat ports at that time, he'd get 2, MAYBE 3 devs from similar rolls.

I do understand the strat, my point is that it's a feast/famine gameplan no? His chance of getting cards is 10/36, compared to my proposed 18/36 chance. I get that the output is also a multiplier so it evens out, but I've always felt that consistent output is better than feast/famine. The nature of the feast/famine, is that when feasting (hits his numbers) with an overwhelming amount of cards, gets ahead too fast and becomes a target, OR if he's in famine (no resources), he's in risk of losing map space, (but his opponents sucked at punishing that) The super sheep-wheat-rock start is definitely super powerful and easy to play , but the drawback is a dead brick in hand. Whereas what I suggested imo has no dead resource, brick is paired with wood, wheat with rock. Besides, looking at the map, since green is taking 6/5/12, purple does become a threat for dev cards, but mid game should stil be easy money for dev cards.

​@@showduhtung Agreed, he's taking a huge gamble with so little variety in numbers. But his opponents were weak, didn't block him when they should and gave him the trades he needed.

@@showduhtung I get what you're saying but a couple things. It's not 10/36, it's 13/36 (8 + 4 + 10 + 3). And I'm completely on board with your feast/famine analogy, but I think it actually applies more to diversified numbers than to well paired numbers. As a simplified example, compare an 8 ore 8 wheat setup to an 8 ore 6 wheat setup. You may say the latter is more diversified, but in reality, how much does it help to have the 6 roll without the 8? Most of the time, you're waiting for the 8 to roll either way, but in the latter setup, you need the 6 to ALSO roll. The only advantage to the latter setup is if the 6 rolls twice you might be able to trade the extra wheat for an ore, but I'd much rather rely on one 8 to roll than rely on trading my second wheat for an ore. Bottom line, I think the key word is 'Actionable'. If the paired numbers are actionable (ore/wheat, ore/sheep, brick/wood, possibly wheat/sheep), they can be deadly. If they don't pair well (like the 4 ore 4 brick in this game), it's better to diversify. With that said, I still think the biggest problem with your setup is the missing sheep. It's not just missing sheep, it's missing the best sheep and the 3:1 expansion on said sheep. And it leaves a great settlement spot open for others.

…. Because he was trying to get to the port uncontested ….

Literally every game is boring if you play against bad opponents but it doesnt make the actuall game bad.

@@michalgabriel9647 No, not really. Plenty of games aren't completely ruined by your opponents sucking. Plenty of games aren't made essentially impossible to win because of your opponents' mistakes.

@@Ohrami How would it be impossible to win when opponents are making mistakes. Thats the exact opposite of what a mistake means.

@@michalgabriel9647 Because this is a free-for-all game where each player can impact who wins. Mistakes made by player A can harm not only player A himself, but potentially players B and C even more, giving all of the benefit to player D. Imagine a hypothetical extreme: Player A accepts every single trade from player B for the entire game but never from C or D. Player B offers 1 card for 17 cards and player A always accepts. This means player A is making a mistake. You, as player C, can essentially never win the game if this happens in a game you are playing in.

@@Ohrami This would never happen unless 2 players teamed up which is against teh rules. There are always consequences to all your actions so if you pissed of one player that would be your fault and if you didnt make anyone angry then you can always countertrade or somehow affect the gameplay thats why Dylan is so good.