Eastern Pacific Ocean is cooling NOT warming! Are the climate models wrong??

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Just Have a Think

Just Have a Think

Жыл бұрын

Climate models have been getting more and more sophisticated as the power of super computers has increased exponentially over the last few years. But have all the variables been factored in? A machine is only as good as the person that builds it, after all. Now a new research paper has found some very strange temperature differences in the Eastern Pacific Ocean between climate models and observed 'real world' measurements. So, what's going on?
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Пікірлер: 7 500
@TheNativeTwo
@TheNativeTwo Жыл бұрын
I work at a research lab in modeling. There are climate modeling researchers here as well. They recently put out a paper that the problem with the models is the modeling of clouds. And yes, there are problems with the models. There is a famous quote in scientific modeling: “all models are wrong, but some models are useful.” Thus far, climate models are not very useful.
@BenJehovah6969
@BenJehovah6969 Жыл бұрын
In America they’re all are useful....as political propaganda and fear mongering tools.
@3rdeye671
@3rdeye671 Жыл бұрын
Do you factor in geoengineering weather weapons? Like the H.A.A.R.P. facility in Alaska? Or cloud seeding like China did with the Beijing Olympics so it wouldnt rain during the games, it caused flooding elsewhere though. Cloud seeding has been in use since the 1940's. Weather weapons are real as there is a UN treaty in effect since 1978 banning there use on other nations. Are these things what throw your climate models so far out and the reason for the extreme weather conditions? It would fit the WEF climate change agenda bs and the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development. To the Elite globalists our population is not Sustainable. The WEF slogan is - 2030 You Will Own Nothing and You Will be Happy. Its war on the world population starting with the West. The aim of the extreme weather is to destroy the food crops worldwide.
@GH0ST369
@GH0ST369 Жыл бұрын
Yet the 'chicken little' woke are using models to make their claim of a climate emergency, these alarmists need to be shut down. It is ridiculous how they claim Co and CO2 would be a problem to plant life, when palio records compare the current as being low, therefore having more carbon would offset this cooling trend of a solar minimum.
@Martin.Wilson
@Martin.Wilson Жыл бұрын
Environment Canada's climate model, was foisted on an unsuspecting public in 1999. They gave 7 dire warnings about climate catastrophes that would occur in the next twenty years. They included crop failures in the prairies, dangerously high sea levels and a huge spike in urban heat-related fatalities. Not one of their predictions happened....not one. I've yet to see one that was accurate.
@4Nanook
@4Nanook Жыл бұрын
@@Martin.Wilson There is one, crop failures, caused by artificially high diesel prices and restrictions in fertilizer usage.
@smartgoku9048
@smartgoku9048 Жыл бұрын
that was more informative than what those who are yelling and disrupting people's lives will ever tell you.
@jamespendleton4802
@jamespendleton4802 Жыл бұрын
Absolutely. People searching for truth without a political motive is refreshing.
@damianv8200
@damianv8200 Жыл бұрын
Don’t be fooled by this lack of knowledge and research the wet weather is caused by the volcano erupting in Tonga in January of this year, you can find information about it on KZfaq
@mikewinburn
@mikewinburn Жыл бұрын
Sandy, that’s because people hear what they want to hear, and draw conclusions based on what they remember- not what was actually presented. As a result, govt forgoes all the details and gives us just what the point is that should be remembered. (By the way, you likely remember this is also what the religious leadership did in the “dark ages” as well.)
@sonjafarrell2773
@sonjafarrell2773 Жыл бұрын
@@jamespendleton4802 +
@kellyowens1868
@kellyowens1868 Жыл бұрын
Is it refreshing for someone to describe predictable cycles of climate change that have been functioning in essentially the same manner, with slight fluctuations any reasonable person would expect to occur in any natural phenomenon ... cyclical weather patterns, Polar bear numbers {significantly larger in recent years, btw, but merely a continuance of a steady, persistent, & confounding INCREASE in the world's population of large arctic mammals from the Orsine family, I haven't heard much about Grissly Bear numbers, or the smaller Black, & Brown bear species commonly found throughout the woodlands, & the many prominant mountain ranges that dominate the landscape of the US, & Canada, but you probably won't hear much about any bear species suffering from the catastrophic effects of refrigeration, home cooked meals, clean clothes, long distance travel, making roughly 1/3 of the US, & Nearly all of Canada capable of supporting human habitation, & don't forget nearly all agricultural production, & large scale food processing {think grape nuts, beer, & tortillas of significant scale, with a few notable exceptions, I-RONICALLY ENOUGH, meat, dairy, eggs: cattle-hogs-chicken
@tompound4429
@tompound4429 Жыл бұрын
Nobody has commented on the Hunga Tonga volcano, a submarine volcano which spewed massive amounts of sulphur into the atmosphere. This has caused spectacular red & orange sunsets. The sulphur has also caused a change in our weather patterns causing heavy rainfall to areas like Australia.
@tr7b410
@tr7b410 Жыл бұрын
Exactly-spot on information.
@yanadre9154
@yanadre9154 Жыл бұрын
They never comment on volcanoes because they cannot get volcanoes' money by charging them with CO2 taxes.
@AlexYounger
@AlexYounger Жыл бұрын
Back in the nineties they pointed to Mt. Pinatubo! See! It’s a volcano not us! Humans would never destroy their own nest due to greed and shortsightedness. It’s an argument for the denying faithful.
@tr7b410
@tr7b410 Жыл бұрын
@@AlexYounger Greed has no guardrails. The elite may already know a new oil free technology/powergrid is in the pipeline,-ha, but the dominoes for self-destruction are already starting to fall.
@Ralph_Baric_PhD_C2019
@Ralph_Baric_PhD_C2019 Жыл бұрын
@@AlexYounger Why did Honga blow when it did, might it just be a feed back mechanism? Oh no, it does not result in runaway warming for the heating cult faithful. You see we can do just the same as what you do.
@fredlemon4881
@fredlemon4881 Жыл бұрын
The Tongan underwater volcano eruption put massive amounts of moisture into the atmosphere and has effected the winds in the Indian ocean holding back the cycling patterns of the antarctic winds so ive seen. Which meant the exagerration of la nina on eastern Australia.
@Vanessa-lf2jn
@Vanessa-lf2jn Жыл бұрын
Here in South East QLD Australia it has been a cool spring and we’re loving it!! The regular wet days have been great for filling up the water tanks on our property but we’re looking forward to a change back to drier conditions. For those is who have lived in Australia for more than 30 years you know Australia is the land of weather extremes and it’s our normal. It’s very sad to hear so many teenagers are convinced that every weather event in Australia is catastrophic climate change and yet haven’t bothered to research the history of Australian weather!!
@keng7758
@keng7758 Жыл бұрын
Very interesting to hear about your weather in Australia. I had no ideas that floods were an issue for your continent as I thought of Australia as a fairly dry continent. Thanks for your comment!
@keng7758
@keng7758 Жыл бұрын
Love your channel. Super interesting content and your presentation style & voice are excellent. Glad I found you. Keep it up, your information is fascinating!
@saintsone7877
@saintsone7877 Жыл бұрын
@@keng7758 Various parts of Australia flood regularly. Most are in areas that have very few people so do not make the news as no infrastructure is destroyed and no deaths result. Yet as soon as the East gets a flood all the climate change nutters come out stating it is proof of catastrophic Climate Change. Sadly, a simple search of historical records would inform them that such floods are normal and have occurred for all recorded time in Australia usually occurring every 50 years or so. Sometimes they are late coming and sometimes early but they are normal and nothing to do with GW/CC. One of the reasons the models are wrong is that they are not adjusted for local weather patterns nor updated for actual data since modelling began. They still use data which failed to manifest over the last 40-50 years and therefore are based on false premise. As an example they are based on a constant annual rise in temperatures yet all actual data over the last 50 years shows the annual change indeed changes each and every year. This means if the models are not adjusted each and every year the predictions are based on patently False data and should not even be looked at as a guide to future weather. Yet governments worldwide spend Billions/Trillions based on this inaccurate and false modelling. They tell us to follow the science but are themselves NOT following science but agendas. Point it out and unfortunately you get labelled a denier etc by all the cultists following the GW/CC cults. If you print poor science then expect that science to be challenged and proven incorrect.
@tonyclayton6975
@tonyclayton6975 Жыл бұрын
@@saintsone7877 That unfortunately is totally incorrect. Australia's annual average temperature has increased over the last 100 years by 1.44 degrees C. Some years (like La Nina years) buck the trend. Average rainfall has been roughly the same but the the rainfall distribution has shifted markedly. The North being generally wetter and the South increasingly drier. Again individual years, particularly La Nina ones, buck the trend. Now, the models have their limitations in predicting what and exactly where the impacts of global warming will be. What they haven't got wrong is that global warming continues to trend upwards and that the result is an increase in intensity of severe weather events. That's why records continue to be broken. This video did not suggest that climate change isn't a serious issue as you are making out. Models have been updated with improved scientific knowledge and actual measurements, I've been following the subject since the mid 90's, but it's an ongoing process.
@saintsone7877
@saintsone7877 Жыл бұрын
@@tonyclayton6975 Tony, those increases you mention. Is that before or after they amended temperatures? You were aware that approximately 2000 temperatures per year are amended downwards on temperatures from 1900-2000 by an average 2-4C and please don't respond and say they do not as it is easy to verify(if you are willing to do the legwork). Go to the BOM records and input temps for 1900-1970 for any days you choose. Then go to that town/cities local library and look at historical newspapers temps for the corresponding days and viola, the Bom temps are lower for those days than the newspapers which are the actual temps for that day. Sad to think you say you have followed it since the 1990's yet are unaware of this falsification of historical records by the BOM. You possibly also do not remember the climate scientist who caught the BOM falsifying temps in Canberra during winter. The ABC was showing the temps at a certain spot in Canberra whilst a scientist had temp equipment on that mountain area showing much colder temperatures. She rang the ABC and informed them their semaphored temps were wrong and lo and behold shortly after they disappeared from screen with apologies and the excuse gauges etc were malfunctioning. A week later she repeated the process and caught them with wrong temps again. Just shows the lengths they go to to falsify data. Watch your smartphone closely daily and you can see the temps vary between devices by up to 2C daily yet annual changes are in thousands of a degree over the last 10 years. And the average temperature of the earth is not very warm at all is it Tony? Yet we get told a 2-5C increase will be a catastrophe when anyone with intelligence knows this is poppycock. Far more people die in cold temperatures today than in warm temperatures around the world and if one compares the numbers of people dying due to weather related incidents 100 years ago and today it was far higher 100 years ago than today. CC/GW is a scam pure and simple. Where are the 500+million climate refugees that was supposed to begin around year 2000 Tony? That is what they predicted back in the 1970's/80's. Is the Sydney Opera House going to be under water by 2025 Tony due to sea level rising? Now they claim it will be by 2075. These are the people you call experts yet every prediction they have made since the 1970's where they gave an event and date has failed to materialise. NOT 1 has materialised Tony out of hundreds. That says it all Tony. But you can go on believing your doomsdayers nonsense. Oh, and by the way Tony, they told us 20+ years ago Australia would NEVER EVER get rains like in the past. Each and EVERY year would become drier and DRIER until eventually we ran out of water in our dams etc. Yet here we are Tony 20 or so years later getting record rainfall and dams overflowing. Just another prediction they got totally incorrect yet now they have the temerity to say it is CC/GW that is causing the rains they said would never come again due to CC/GW. The goalposts change everytime their data proves to be false Tony. That is not science my friend but cultism.
@jacekmarczyk4436
@jacekmarczyk4436 Жыл бұрын
I have spent nearly four decades building math models in numerous industries, One conclusion comes to mind when I read about climate models: the most important things in a model are those it doesn't contain.
@Martin.Wilson
@Martin.Wilson Жыл бұрын
The accuracy of any good model depends on including as many variables as possible. In most climate models, the include between 4 and 6 variables when they should be basing them on 15-16 different criteria. The unfortunate truth is that they tend eliminate the variables that don't result in the desired outcome, which clearly undermines the scientific method at it's foundation.
@jtc1947
@jtc1947 Жыл бұрын
@@Martin.Wilson You have a GREAT start but since I am not a scientist of any caliber, could there be even MORE criteria or variables to be considered?? PEACE!
@jtc1947
@jtc1947 Жыл бұрын
@ Jacek.... GREAT COMMENT! Maybe somebody had better get the quantum computers working on this instead of asking, WHY IS THERE AIR?" ( or other irrelevant nonsense) PEACE!
@Martin.Wilson
@Martin.Wilson Жыл бұрын
@@jtc1947 Absolutely. The more comprehensive the model is, in terms of variables, the more accurate it is likely to be. One of the most important criterion that is often overlooked are the Milankovitch cycles which can cause variations of up to 25 percent in the amount of incoming solar radiation at Earth’s mid-latitudes. In fact, the Milankovitch cycles were crucial in triggering the numerous ice ages throughout Earth's geological past.
@jtc1947
@jtc1947 Жыл бұрын
@@Martin.Wilson I was amazed about the precession (?? Is that the correct term? concerning the difference in the % of how the EARTH is actually facing the sun. Seems that Our planet has quite a bit of wobble and the "orientation" can vary so much. To the point that 20 K years ago the SAHARA was a lush paradise.
@j.joseph5353
@j.joseph5353 Жыл бұрын
The problem is not that all climate models are wrong to one degree or another, but that governments seem to make policy based on models that are consistent only in their failure.
@seanhendricks4705
@seanhendricks4705 10 ай бұрын
This!!!! 100000% "well they have all been wrong 100% before... But I'm sure they will be right going forward sooo we will just keep pushing the disaster narrative to create more funding and and of course control"
@climatebell
@climatebell 10 ай бұрын
Climate models may be good for some things like predicting regional shifts in temperature and moisture, but they have significant simplifications when it comes to the specifics of modeling the GHG effect as it warms the Earth. They get their GHG temperature predictions very wrong. We are getting interest from people trying a REVOLUTIONARY free Excel-based calculator that can be downloaded anonymously from our website. It embeds detailed physics equations and absorption data tables for the greenhouse gas effect so the user can precisely obtain the change in Earth’s temperature when GHG levels change for any change analysis scenario the user wants to solve. It simultaneously solves the equations for any mixture change of CO2, CH4, N2O and H2O. People who’ve tried it are enthused because the good-news results are significantly less pessimistic than the popular belief in the media.
@cisnerosigonda
@cisnerosigonda Жыл бұрын
The ENSO oscillations are amazingly impactful where I used to live on the Peruvian coast, especially the northwest. Normally it is bone dry with barely an overcast sky to feed the cactus some drops of moisture. But when El Niño kicks in (which I believe gets its name specifically from Peru in Colonial times when the phenomenon would occur during Christmas and the birth of "El Niño") it starts to pour for months, washing out all of the bridges with flooding stranding coastal dwellers for months because their roads no longer function. The farmers plant rice of all things and the ocean is a balmy 75F, as opposed to the normal 65F. These are huge changes that have been occurring since time immemorial. Of course California is on a draught/rain cycle as well tied to these currents. Pretty much every region in the world is impacted, from the looks of it. My interest in El Niño started out of following surf reports, which are ultimately driven by big storms, which get bigger during El Niño because more heat means more energy. The other part of ENSO that is worth noting is that it is only really predictable maybe 6 months out. We know it oscillates, we know the range, we know some of the effects, but we can't predict with any precision what it will be doing in a year or two years or ten. The climate models are a bust on that. There is also strong evidence that undersea volcanic activity creates "hot spots" that influence ocean temperatures, currents and thus, ENSO. These are necessarily stochastic in nature and thus cannot be modeled or predicted. These could explain anomalous years that break earlier patterns.
@yosmith1
@yosmith1 Жыл бұрын
The conclusion is Don't rely on models based on models
@Eyes0penNoFear
@Eyes0penNoFear Жыл бұрын
GIGO is real!
@undernetjack
@undernetjack Жыл бұрын
Especially if both are largely incomplete models to begin with... 'but mah funding!'
@Eyes0penNoFear
@Eyes0penNoFear Жыл бұрын
@@undernetjack follow the $cience!
@mrmustangman
@mrmustangman Жыл бұрын
@@Eyes0penNoFear kzfaq.info/get/bejne/hLOmnZCIqZ_JcYk.html
@Eyes0penNoFear
@Eyes0penNoFear Жыл бұрын
@@mrmustangman as many times as I've used that phrase, you're the first person to link me to a video like that 😂😂😂 Well played 👏
@beth-rg8bm
@beth-rg8bm Жыл бұрын
The puzzle is how did humans think that the weather would just float along and never change when the history of our planet tells us we've gone through flooding and ice ages more than once...
@beth-rg8bm
@beth-rg8bm Жыл бұрын
This is how we run across places where there's been buildings and then the people disappear but there's really not that many bones. Where did they go? They got up and moved because the weather conditions were unfavorable for their continued existence. Well that and wars, plagues and volcanoes. We live on a living planet it changes on a regular basis...we're just learning how to see it on a worldwide view.
@PDTLuke2238
@PDTLuke2238 Жыл бұрын
Because they don't teach history anymore. I was laughing when everyone started screaming about the polar ice caps and permafrost were melting, and then reports of boats, villages, people found in them.... permafrost is not so permanent.... that means there was not ice there at one point. History shows every 500 years the earth goes hot or cold, every 1000 years it's more extreme. It's always changing, we only In the last 40 years have been able to see it world wide.
@martinbaker613
@martinbaker613 Жыл бұрын
Exactly. The climate is changing all the time, always has. It's shear arrogance to think we can create models that predict the outcomes of a nonlinear chaotic system. There's a lot of evidence that the world is going to cool, the best we can do is watch and learn... and adapt to the changes as we've always done 🤔
@beth-rg8bm
@beth-rg8bm Жыл бұрын
@@martinbaker613 What gets me is the people that think that they can actually control nature...it's such a joke...we can't even predict it accurately let alone control it!
@jimbob-robob
@jimbob-robob Жыл бұрын
And we've had CO2 increase to 400ppm before...except it happened over hundreds of thousands of years not over 200 years since the industrial revolution...get real people, this climate change isn't just "weather" doing its thing...this sudden increase gives nature (and us) no time to adapt...
@quanahhurtt4443
@quanahhurtt4443 Жыл бұрын
When it comes to these "human created climate change" narrative computer models, one thing I was taught about computer programming when I went to college 40 years ago, one saying come to mind.... "Garbage in, garbage out".
@nigelliam153
@nigelliam153 Жыл бұрын
Yep and they don't work when they go backwards ie there are 4 interglacial warm periods in the last million years that were much warmer than our current interglacial warm period but that they can't predict these with the models because the co2 levels were around 250ppm, low co2 with high temperatures totally buggers up the models.
@allstargaming5270
@allstargaming5270 10 ай бұрын
Million years? 😂 that's a lie Science recently found out we have a young earth. Look it up! Secular science tries hard to make it millions when it's not, it's only thousands of years old
@mrunning10
@mrunning10 2 ай бұрын
Look in your mirror for garbage and understanding I see. For the past 50 years the climate models, within statistical error bounds, have predicted warming and the measurements each and every year show WARMING. You are either just a God Damned LIAR or a bot, which?
@gregbooth1551
@gregbooth1551 Жыл бұрын
A first-time watcher who loves natural processes, which should keep all of us humble. I did enjoy your unbiased thought-provoking insights. Have not read any comments yet but there is a theory on KZfaq that the massive Tongan Volcano has "turbo-charged" this year's La Nino effects for eastern Oz by releasing incredible amounts of water blown into our atmosphere and beyond (?) Personally, I'm impressed by how accurate forecasts usually are with all the variables at play. Especially down here in the SW Pacific with the roaring forties in play plus the odd ex-tropical cyclone. Christchurch NZ is set to break quite a number of rainfall records this year, but luckily nowhere near as crazy as Oz. I do look forward to watching your next video.
@robbarton7972
@robbarton7972 Жыл бұрын
The Tongan volcano eruption in January is also playing a part in these record floods.
@alansnyder8448
@alansnyder8448 Жыл бұрын
This seems like a good observation.
@Sc50001
@Sc50001 Жыл бұрын
Definitely. That bad boy launched billions of tons of water into the atmosphere.
@robbarton7972
@robbarton7972 Жыл бұрын
@@Sc50001 Have look at this I am not saying it is a fact but a good possibility. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/e8Ckha6Tucq1hqs.html
@brianwheeldon4643
@brianwheeldon4643 Жыл бұрын
Thanks rob, I agree with that. I live in Auckland and we've been experiencing until very recently cool winds from the south that were lowering the daytime temperature noticeably two or three degrees C. I'd read in one of digital science mags that the Tongan submarine volcano had thrown up enough sea water to increase the global amount of water vapour in the atmosphere (stratosphere?) by around 10 percent. That's quite a lot! Additionally, it had also thrown up a fair amount of sulphur dioxide and ash. "The plume was composed primarily of water with some ash and sulfur dioxide mixed in, said atmospheric scientist Simon Proud, lead author of the research published in the journal Science. Eruptions from land-based volcanoes tend to have more ash and sulfur dioxide and less water" - Reuters. The water vapour will fall out quickly enough, and the sulphur and ash is expected to cool global temperature for maybe 3 or 4 years starting in the southern hemisphere, and already crossing the equator to the northern. Research is going on to confirm this or otherwise. Meanwhile anthropogenic GHG emissions and climate heating with the ensuing chaos continue unabated. It's as though an umbrella has been temporarily put up to reflect some of the incoming solar radiation, but we'll see soon enough I guess.
@NotBROLL
@NotBROLL Жыл бұрын
@@brianwheeldon4643 Mmm, interesting. Thanks for the post.
@user-uj3ly5ly3q
@user-uj3ly5ly3q Жыл бұрын
Thanks for adding some helpful context to the nature of these complex weather patterns.
@homertipton2102
@homertipton2102 Жыл бұрын
When I was growing up, meteorologists were a bit of a joke because it was the only profession where people could be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their jobs. On the rare occasion meteorologists spoke about weather beyond local reports it was all about the coming Ice Age. Fast forward 30 years and the Weather Channel has turned meteorology into one of the most highly respected professions out there. They're like soothsayer rockstars now, complete with their dour predictions and over-hyped weather events. The joke now is that every new weather pattern is given a kitschy name that sounds like a pro wrestler's finishing move. "He's got him in the Polar Vortex! Here come the Bomb Cyclone! It's over!!!"
@johnhough4445
@johnhough4445 Жыл бұрын
I too remember that coming ice age. It was a wee bit of a 'thing' at the time, but with no world-wide-web it wasn't open to everybody - and only the cognoscenti were interested anyway (the rest of us read the girlie magazines. I did too, but I actually read both).
@DRAT311
@DRAT311 Жыл бұрын
Meteorologists work with short term localized weather. Climatologists are scientists who work with long term cycles and trends. Listening to meteorologists about coming ice ages is like listening to your step brother who drives a tank for the army about his predictions on Russia's longer term strategic goals in Europe and then saying the military doesn't know anything when he's wrong. The consensus among climatologists for the past 100 years has been that the earth is warming regardless of what local meteorologists or news reporters said.
@homertipton2102
@homertipton2102 Жыл бұрын
@@DRAT311 I thought climatology was a field within meteorology, kind of like how aerospace and nuclear engineering are fields within mechanical and/or electrical engineering. (But don't tell aerospace or nuclear engineers that!) Regardless, I was really just taking shots at the ever-increasing hyperbole coming from The Weather Channel.
@k_tess
@k_tess Жыл бұрын
​@@DRAT311 My issue is that they are probably lying through their teeth. It not that I don't believe in Climate change. I believe in Climate Change. I just think it's not going along with their models and they can't figure out why. I think it's warming MUCH slower than they believe. CO2 is a green house gas. And we pump a couple billion tons of it into the atmosphere on an annual basis. But there should have been Congressional hearings and funding cut the second it became knowledge that NOAA was purposefully putting thermometers in black top parking lots to inflate the data.
@billm2065
@billm2065 Жыл бұрын
When I was a child, the nightly weather forecast said we were going to have a dusting of snow. When I woke up in the morning and looked outside, there was almost 2 feet on the ground. 😅
@piotrwojdelko1150
@piotrwojdelko1150 Жыл бұрын
I have been pretending in schools many times that I understood El Nino and La Nina pattern ,however even today it is more complicated than I thought .It is fascinating the effect on global weather system .thank you for illustrations
@killz0ne215
@killz0ne215 Жыл бұрын
Check out the forcast videos from Eric Snodgras. He's a meteorologist with Nutrian Ag Solutions {also the YT channel name} and is very good at explaining things and helping teach people to understand how the patterns work. You really begin to understand how weather forecasting works.
@marcwinkler
@marcwinkler Жыл бұрын
Ask mathematicians about modeling a chaotic system like the climat. Sensitivity of any chaotic system to parameters adjustements is huge. In any case, we'll have confirmation/denial for models predictions in years 2050 or 2100, so be patient.
@shaneclarence6696
@shaneclarence6696 Жыл бұрын
the Tongan volcano add the la Nina sam and wa dipole..... this is the reason its already been put out there.....this is alarmism... el Nino is drought la Nina wet..... ask the black fellas like us we taught the government about this in the 50s.....
@cck4863
@cck4863 Жыл бұрын
I see the problem. Climate models are created for political reason NOT science. Who pay the money get to decide what factor to use, what factor to ignore and therefore what result it will get.
@met9072
@met9072 Жыл бұрын
cck. Exactly, follow the money you'll find the science
@ericphillips9240
@ericphillips9240 Жыл бұрын
35 years ago they did a study of cores samples that were taken from the bottom of the Atlantic an Pacific Oceans. They looked at the plankton layers and came to the conclusion that right after every global warming event, there was a catastrophic ice age.
@starlingballet6082
@starlingballet6082 Жыл бұрын
YUP! ITS ALL 'CYCLICAL' IS MY BELIEF. LIFE IS NOTHING BUT CYCLES. ROUND AND ROUND WE GO!! I WILL NEVER BUY " CLIMATE CHANGE" ALL BULLS💩💩T.....LITERALLY...AND GAS!!!! TOOT- TOOT!!😂
@casteretpollux
@casteretpollux Жыл бұрын
And we're still not out of the current ice age.
@Mikiel-dh4bg
@Mikiel-dh4bg Жыл бұрын
Yep, and according to some esoteric circles, this is a normal cycle that happened before and will happen again. It should be on us in around ten-twelve years or so. However, it is predicted as not to be catastrophic, but just dammed cold, very cold in fact, and for two or three generations. Get your fireplaces and firewood ready, electricity networks will fail on the northern parts of the Northern Hemisphere!
@jtc1947
@jtc1947 Жыл бұрын
@ ERIC.... A long time ago when I was STILL in school, there seemed to be the idea that ANOTHER ice age or Mini-ICE age might be in our future? Maybe people should lay in their long johns??
@kellyowens1868
@kellyowens1868 Жыл бұрын
Did they really need to look at plankton layers, did you say? Was it somewhere around 35 years ago ... this scouring the 2 largest oceans on the planet, but I guess they're boring down through the sea bed. getting some nice historic depositions of plankton over time, most recent layers are on top, & the lower you go ... seems pretty clear, huh Eric ... 5 yesrs ago, plankton dies, floats ever so slowly, lands on the sea floor, plankton keeps floating, barely moving, but "DOWN ... goes ... Frazier! ... sorry it's a boxing fight call. Probably the most famous heavey weight championship bout, between Fazier, & Muhamed Ali ... for the belt, Ali won I'm pretty sure, to either maintain his, "Heavy Weight Champion of the Woorold!" title, or win it back, but I don't think Frazier ever did Beat Ali, not while he was still the Champ, George Frazier was a punishing puncher, & dominated virtually all of the early rounds, til about 8, & round 9, Ali wasn't winning those rounds either, but Frazier was starting to wear himself out from aggressively going on offense for the first half, & throwing so many punches, Ali didn't block many of them either, except with gut, & his head. A few times Ali did bob, & weave to avoid a couple of hard rights that could have knocked him clean out, so he did what he needed to do to keep going, & keep fightin' but Eric I'll bring this back to these less than honest, & misguided, or terribly misinformed "activists" we should call them, because they are always DEMANDING their government take this action NOW! or Net Zero by 2030! You all have to STOP using fossil fuels by 2025, or we'll glue ourselves to the pavement of a major Interstate, at least 4 lanes of Highway, maybe we'll block traffic going in both directions so that would be 4 ... 5 .. 6, hmm ... So is 8 after 6, or did I count wrong? I know I was told to threaten you horrible evil people ... who just want to kill grandma ... with you gas heaters in the Winter, & Grandma's cleaner burning natural gas for cooking, & heating, & hot water for washing her clothes, & doing the dishes, and shouldn't she get hot shower once, or twice a week weeknext month! action, & these climate hysteria of the out was very close in the fight I spoofed the great Howard Cossel's inflection, quick cadence & nasal whinedown like the biggest snowfall in hidtory top layer the older the layers of plankton laid down
@LorenzKamo
@LorenzKamo Жыл бұрын
Also to add, it's always INTERESTING these "studies" start their evidence periods after 1979.
@srmatte1
@srmatte1 Жыл бұрын
What better way to show a warming trend?
@gerrys6265
@gerrys6265 Жыл бұрын
Many studies I've seen over the years actually start with geological records dating back thousands of years and longer. Perhaps we need to read more.
@pshehan1
@pshehan1 Жыл бұрын
It was not until the 1980s that warming due to CO2 began to become evident in the instrumental temperature above the background of natural forcings. That was predicted by Hansen et al in a 1981 paper. Their model has stood the test of time. pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1981/1981_Hansen_ha04600x.pdf Other data, such as sea level goes back longer. climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
@GB-gf3dm
@GB-gf3dm Жыл бұрын
@@pshehan1 Whatever. As if the world was supposed to stay the same temperate forever. Hahaha. No emergency, just a cutback on some chemical uses. Which is why the ozone layer is reportedly 'healing'. All this 'Climate Change' hysteria is just political. An attempt to push the free world into Socialism / Communism.
@pshehan1
@pshehan1 Жыл бұрын
@@GB-gf3dm The temperature was not going to stay the same forever. That is no reason for humans to change it now. The climate had been relatively stable for the 12,000 years of the holocene when agriculture, human populations, infrastructure including coastal cities developed where they are until the industrial revolution began adding CO2 to the atmosphere, raising it by 50% so far, from 280 to 420 ppm, and increasing the temperature by 1.3 C so far and currently rising at an accelerating rate of 0.2 C per decade. The same science which correctly predicted that predicts the disastrtous consequences if that continues. That is not politics. It is fact.
@kathybray2838
@kathybray2838 Жыл бұрын
Thank you, this is very interesting information on real science in the weather and oceanic patterns.😊
@meee6836
@meee6836 Жыл бұрын
As a resident of South East Qld I can see the result of your studies. We have been complaining about the colder wet summers for the last couple of years. Whereas we used to have top Summer temps of around 40C as a norm I don't think it got above 33C last year at all here. We had so many grey skies it was more like living in England than Australia lol. The only real advantage of it was the dams were all full. Thank you for this posting I found it informative and interesting.
@Rustyfin1958
@Rustyfin1958 Жыл бұрын
In the uk this summer we hit 40.5 c totally unnatural 😒
@4D2M0T
@4D2M0T Жыл бұрын
Definitely went over 40 where I live in SEQ both last summer and the one before, hit 33 here just last week and we are not even in summer yet. The rain has been good I hope it stays
@aeasthouse316
@aeasthouse316 Жыл бұрын
Just a note, whilst Sydney received record year of rain, Easter Australia and Australia overall had more rain over the three years 1973, 74 & 75. 2050, 2056, 2010 & 2011 were also much wetter. Just because the biggest city experiences unusual high rainfall, the past 3 years are by no means out of the norm for Australia. Feel free to get all the data directly from BOM site
@andrewplater1782
@andrewplater1782 Жыл бұрын
Give me the cooler, wetter Aussie summer every time.
@3rdeye671
@3rdeye671 Жыл бұрын
The dams that they didnt empty the top water off before the rains and caused the Brisbane floods as well as elsewhere you mean?
@matthewgrosse6843
@matthewgrosse6843 Жыл бұрын
I live in the riverina region and we just had two days of greater than 40mm rain....school cancelled, floods abound, severe thunderstorms all over the place. Interesting things to note, The Bureau here in Australia is investigating an upper level wind pattern which was noted over us last time rains like this occurred - lasting approx 10 years - the 1970's - when we flooded like this. I remember this period from my childhood with the 1974 floods. Adding to this was an exceptionally good snow season in the ranges that have filled the river systems. Lookin like we will get another Antarctic cold snap this week with more snow, very unseasonal. We still have a lot to learn about our weather patterns. On a side note, evidence of an inland sea is on the archaeological and aboriginal record here in Australia and is currently being investigated. The thoughts are that significant weather systems are the only way this could have occurred, so the future may hold some interesting discoveries on our weather patterns.
@barnysadventures
@barnysadventures Жыл бұрын
I am in NE Tassie, and I agree with your thoughts. The current weather patterns seen almost identical to the weather during the seventies, when it was almost too wet here to farm. Definitely seems that we still have a lot to learn about the Earth's weather.
@robertcoutts926
@robertcoutts926 Жыл бұрын
Let's face it we don't have a friggen clue how long any patterns are and as they are only one part of what makes up climate chaos ... but those who "have the science " can pretty much make anything up and change their minds as fast as the weather, while claiming "that's what I've been saying all along". The truth is, we are babes in the woods, like it or not.
@LestatTravesty
@LestatTravesty Жыл бұрын
like a tsunami. tide goes away befor all the water comes in. 2019 the tide was out. you guys wanted rain. 2019 convinced the most of you that man made climate change put yenz in a severe droubt. well so you got all the rain you ever wanted now lol.. whats thats saying?? careful whatchu wish for. seems to be a real kick in the nuts, doesn't it?
@liamgross7217
@liamgross7217 Жыл бұрын
Pretty much an identical story for me on the NSW/ Vic border. Everything is sodden. The river systems are well and truely over full. Like the poem says “a land of droughts and flooding rains”.
@bobleclair5665
@bobleclair5665 Жыл бұрын
Plant trees
@marcgalle3529
@marcgalle3529 Жыл бұрын
Using GIS to factor in bathometry, topography and vegetation cover would help integrate variability and also the calibration of models using weather instruments can help identify some of the local variance at play to feed into the model
@user-bm8uw8oj4k
@user-bm8uw8oj4k 6 ай бұрын
Don't forget to put atmospheric physics, water wapor, clouds in your models.
@steveoatway7001
@steveoatway7001 Жыл бұрын
Excellent presentation that is understandable for most people and makes us rather curious for the future. What is causing the strange weather pattern off the west coast of South America? That is a question I look forward to hearing the answer to. My request is to explain the weather patterns we're seeing in British Columbia. In 2021 and 2022 we had the highest temperatures ever recorded here, some of the worst fires and then late Fall flooding that was unprecedented in scale and actually cut Vancouver off from the the rest of Canada and USA.
@Pete856
@Pete856 Жыл бұрын
I'm in New Zealand, on the east coast of the South Island, which is known for being dry. In my lifetime I've seen changes, as a kid in the 80's just about every summer was drought conditions....great for harvesting crops but you needed irrigation to grow them in the first place. The last time we had a summer like that was 2014-15. Now irrigation doesn't seem as important, but grain dryers are as it's getting harder to dry crops out in the field.
@Roger_Gadd
@Roger_Gadd Жыл бұрын
I was just about to post a comment in a similar vein, but saw your comment, which by the way has top billing at the moment for this video. Apart from some flooding and slips, I think that for the last two years the weather here in NZ has been quite good because overall it has probably been good for agriculture and has kept the hydro lakes full.
@nutzeeer
@nutzeeer Жыл бұрын
Would hemp also have this problem?
@alexdubois6585
@alexdubois6585 Жыл бұрын
@@Roger_Gadd I worry as similarly here in Europe, winters have been just cold enough to sustain Alpine economies. We may experience a very steep change if El Nino comes back with very warm winter in Europe and reading your comments, very dry summer in your region.
@Roger_Gadd
@Roger_Gadd Жыл бұрын
@@alexdubois6585 Yes, the El Nino weather pattern is a problem for NZ. As Pete mentioned, it was prevalent in the 1980s. I did a bit of unrelated analysis a few days ago, and interestingly, NZ farm animal biomass may have peaked in about 1986, and NZ farm animal methane emissions certainly peaked that year. But I suspect that the complete removal of farm subsidies here then may be what ultimately led to our reduction in farm methane emissions.
@Pete856
@Pete856 Жыл бұрын
@@Roger_Gadd On the animal biomass, it's interesting that you say it peaked around 1986, because in Canterbury a lot of those mixed sheep/cropping farms which required irrigation in the 80s, but not so much now, have mostly become dairy farms. With the more regular summer rainfall we're now getting (plus irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer) those farms have way more animal biomass than back then....I guess one region doesn't represent the whole country.
@wlhgmk
@wlhgmk Жыл бұрын
So Aus needs multi-year water storage. When the 'dry' comes again, she will be bemoaning the lack of water. The only place to store that water is underground and the logical location is in the gigantic aquifers in the outback. More systems on the scale of the Snowy Mountain project are needed.
@guringai
@guringai Жыл бұрын
Practically all of the river systems have been dammed already , with consequential environmental problems, some of those massive problems.
@1EARTHARCHITECT
@1EARTHARCHITECT Жыл бұрын
Lake Eyre is a hundred feet below sea level - plenty of room for storage.
@guringai
@guringai Жыл бұрын
@@1EARTHARCHITECT . That's basically a gigantic evaporation pond, being a salt lake, which is only a few feet deep. & It's in the middle of nowhere. That's a crazy idea.
@guringai
@guringai Жыл бұрын
@@1EARTHARCHITECT Lake air is only 15 m below sea level
@hitreset0291
@hitreset0291 Жыл бұрын
@@1EARTHARCHITECT and lake eyre has a 2 meter per year evaporation rate, so perhaps not a good place to store water for later use.
@gowanhewlett745
@gowanhewlett745 Жыл бұрын
Thankyou for excellent presentation style both vocally, textually and visually. Splendid and very interesting.
@djcrobertson6212
@djcrobertson6212 Жыл бұрын
It seems the weather systems combined to create something of a perfect storm for Australia but added to this was the undersea volcanic eruption near Tonga in January 2022 that put an estimated trillion tonnes of water into the stratosphere that has increased the availability of moisture to add to the rainfall over Australia. Models can’t predict these events.
@Siwashable
@Siwashable Жыл бұрын
And volcanoes are movers of climate - that much we know... and we cannot control. Watch the documentary "536 AD: The Worst Year In History?" on KZfaq.. you may realize that the climate's movers are beyond our control.
@Defensive_Wounds
@Defensive_Wounds Жыл бұрын
Things that occur outside of these events also come into play, such as the Tonga volcano that erupted, that is literally where El Nino or la nina sits off the east coast of Oz. The heat and sulphur etc was mostly in the ocean which did alter la nina and el nino plus the Antarctic southern dipole so much this caused the flooding.
@williamrbuchanan4153
@williamrbuchanan4153 Жыл бұрын
All our energy is from the Sun.on Earth weather is from it.Heat below the crust is doing what it has todo.The Sun getting too much energy from the ( Cosmic Cloud);stated byNASA we are passing through. Sun gets too much, ,we get too much. Work it out,we are cooking off our ice everywhere on Earth. Melting perma frost (/from below) methane out of melt and volcanic pressure relief world wide.
@tyfode224
@tyfode224 Жыл бұрын
I'm surprised you haven't made the connection of the Tonga eruption back in January, which sent ash and water vapor higher than most other volcanos in recorded history! This is certainly having a huge effect on the weather patterns, especially in the southern hemisphere. The loses in crop production will be very notable!!!!
@kalrandom7387
@kalrandom7387 Жыл бұрын
I think it was Krakatoa that cause the next year to not have a summer, and then kicked off The Black Plague.
@owenwilson25
@owenwilson25 Жыл бұрын
The Tonga eruption is the reason the SAM has been driven persistently positive allowing wacky easterly winds to dump Pacific moisture across the east coast and east inlands; but generally speaking there's more heat in the entire system, warmer oceans increasing rains and under mining Antarctic ice-sheets allowing the great Antarctic glaciers to collapse a hundred times faster than they've been able to do during the past three million years.
@kellyh4202
@kellyh4202 Жыл бұрын
a great video on the Tongan eruption in January 22 and the effect it might of had on the resent flooding in Victoria this year. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/e8Ckha6Tucq1hqs.html
@kellyh4202
@kellyh4202 Жыл бұрын
kzfaq.info/get/bejne/e8Ckha6Tucq1hqs.html
@autohmae
@autohmae Жыл бұрын
well, that was only this year and as mentioned in the video the trend has been going on longer...
@robroysyd
@robroysyd Жыл бұрын
As I live in Sydney Australia all I can add is it's not just the rain. It was preceded by bushfires and now an ongoing plague. No flooding problem for us thankfully. A lot of the flooding problems seem due to people being told it was OK to build in locations where it should have been obvious it wasn't. There's 10 year, 100 year and 1,000 year floods and probably 10,000 year ones. I think if you've got to ask "Does it flood here?", the answer is "Yes". Certainly part of the problem is Australia has a very flat interior skirted by not very high mountains which typically shield that area from rainfall however a lot of the rain that may fall on those mountains drains inland leading to places that have very low rainfall flooding.
@peterritchie5593
@peterritchie5593 Жыл бұрын
the term 100 year flood is a planing term that has been abused
@pulsar22
@pulsar22 Жыл бұрын
That is the first thing I ask when looking for a place to live. "Does it flood here?" That simple question saves a lot of headache later. I live in the PH BTW where flooding is the rule and not the exception.
@robroysyd
@robroysyd Жыл бұрын
@@peterritchie5593 Well aware if that. Just because you just had one it does not mean you'll not have another one for 100 years. Unfortunately I cannot think of a better way to express what it tries to denote.
@rogerknights857
@rogerknights857 Жыл бұрын
Too bad Australia doesn’t have more dams. Weren’t there proposals to build some back in the day?
@robroysyd
@robroysyd Жыл бұрын
@@rogerknights857 We already have a lot of dams especially in the SNowy Mountains where the water is used for hydro, pumped hydro storage and irrigation. One problem is the scheme is jointly owned by Victoria and NSW. Add to that the conflict between water for irrigation and power generation and it's a real hot potato. That scheme is being upgraded to handle more pumped hydro energy storage. For the rest Sydney has a few dams and reservoirs to supply domestic water and there has been discussion about increasing the height of the spillway of one of them. The problem with anything West of Great Dividing Range is the country is very flat. There are some dams and weirs. Sure more would be good but we're really short of suitable locations.
@clusterfer
@clusterfer Жыл бұрын
As an Australian I can confirm the weather report: IT'S RAINING SIDEWAYS!
@hummakavula3750
@hummakavula3750 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Ollie
@clusterfer
@clusterfer Жыл бұрын
I think I saw a fish!!
@mjpottertx
@mjpottertx Жыл бұрын
As I was tough many years ago, “All models are wrong, some are useful”
@drabbit61
@drabbit61 Жыл бұрын
I think I've burst a blood vessel trying to understand it but, wonderfully presented again.
@grindupBaker
@grindupBaker Жыл бұрын
If you're following your comment here then read this which explains video topic and is simple (faster big winds system. Something big with ENSO started 1995 but (this is important) I've not come across information whether it ended with 2015/16 big El Nino or whether it's stil existing as a long-term background trend. It's the warming tropical Atlantic Ocean surface as I've been informing in a comment since 2014. It's a classic power amplifier because tropical Pacific Ocean is 3.6 times as wide as tropical Atlantic Ocean. ---------------- It started 1995. By 2012 the tropical Pacific Ocean easterly wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012-2021 wind stress plot so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge. ENSO is an utterly-vast feature of Earth's surface-air. ---------------- Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales." ---------------- Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says." ---------------- Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake."
@grindupBaker
@grindupBaker Жыл бұрын
Title "Are the climate models wrong??". In the case of this topic definitely yes per this published mainstream science following. Find quote "Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins" below because that's entirely what this video is about. --------- Quote: "Atlantic warming turbocharges Pacific trade winds Date:August 3, 2014 Source:University of New South Wales. New research has found rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean, likely caused by global warming, has turbocharged Pacific Equatorial trade winds. Currently the winds are at a level never before seen on observed records, which extend back to the 1860s. The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise of global average surface temperatures since 2001. It may even be responsible for making El Nino events less common over the past decade due to its cooling impact on ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. "We were surprised to find the main cause of the Pacific climate trends of the past 20 years had its origin in the Atlantic Ocean," said co-lead author Dr Shayne McGregor from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) atthe University of New South Wales." ---------------- Quote: "The record-breaking increase in Pacific Equatorial trade winds over the past 20 years had, until now, baffled researchers. Originally, this trade wind intensification was considered to be a response to Pacific decadal variability. However, the strength of the winds was much more powerful than expected due to the changes in Pacific sea surface temperature. Another riddle was that previous research indicated that under global warming scenarios Pacific Equatorial Trade winds would slow down over the coming century. The solution was found in the rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean basin, which has created unexpected pressure differences between the Atlantic and Pacific. This has produced wind anomalies that have given Pacific Equatorial trade winds an additional big push. “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” says Professor Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Professor Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Professor England says." ---------------- Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus Nature Climate Change 4, 222-227 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2106 Received 11 September 2013 Accepted 18 December 2013 Published online 09 February 2014 Corrected online 14 February 2014 Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso Affiliations "Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades-unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models-is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake." --------- It started 1995. By 2012 the wind was a massive 30% (1 metre / second) stronger than pre-1995. I've not yet found post 2012 so I don't know whether the big 2015/16 El Nino was the end of the massive 17 to 20 year Trade Wind surge.
@guyh9992
@guyh9992 Жыл бұрын
Lake George near Canberra is full for the first time in decades after three years of good rain. It is often completely empty during drought. Back in the 1870s however it was twice as full so can't imagine how much rain was received back then before reliable rain records were held. There is a sign at a rest stop on the lake that indicates the level of the water at the time.
@slawomirhering3770
@slawomirhering3770 Жыл бұрын
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ? Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
@kathleencook3060
@kathleencook3060 Жыл бұрын
Did any reliable recorded data exist?
@KoDeMondo
@KoDeMondo Жыл бұрын
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
@Veikra
@Veikra Жыл бұрын
@@KoDeMondo same in and around Montreal in Canada
@HighMaintenancePS
@HighMaintenancePS Жыл бұрын
The have been rain seeding in Australia as well. It’s on public record.
@Nobody4560
@Nobody4560 Жыл бұрын
In primary school in the 70s we taught that the earth is slowly cooling . We also learned about a Herman Milankovich and orbital changes and how it effects climate.
@hogey74
@hogey74 Жыл бұрын
A reminder that the correct approach is to always be a servant to reality, even though models and patterns help. And FWIW here in Brisbane, most years I've found that a chance of rain means it probably won't rain. We've had a few years though where a chance of rain means it probably will rain.
@xcrockery8080
@xcrockery8080 Жыл бұрын
Could you please release your data? Thanks.
@joeblow4499
@joeblow4499 Жыл бұрын
Really enjoyed listening to your very educational and informative channel. Well done! Thank you.
@aprendendoadvaita3983
@aprendendoadvaita3983 Жыл бұрын
I've been living in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, for over 55 years now and I keenly have accompanied weather pattern changes in my local area. During El Niño years (80s e 90s), summers were extremely hot (36+ C temperatures) with nearly sudden deluges and winters were mild with very dry conditions with occasional cold fronts (18 C) coming from the South and snowfalls in the southern tip of Brasil. During these 3 consecutive La Niña years, it was very difficult to tell winters from summers in Rio. It is like La Niña bucked the trends. The weather was quite balmy year-round, which means summers were on the very warm (32 C) range but not as hot as during El Niño years and winters (26 C) much warmer than average (22 C). This year of 2022, the winter season (Jun/Sep) was remarkably warmer with almost no cold fronts, some subtropical cyclones to the South and this Spring (Sep/Nov) has been exceptionally cool in Rio with even some cold snaps and beats me (blimey!) even a snowfall in early November at the southern tip of Brasil for the first time in recorded history. All in all, we're experiencing warmer than average yearly temperatures with a decline in average precipitation but with no extremes either on winter and summer. During El Niño years, Rio was in chaos during summer time due to heavy rainfall. As we're experiencing La Niña for over 3 consecutive years people have altogether forgotten global warming down south here. This is how "I feel the weather". I've been reading thermometers and observing weather during all these decades! :~)
@UpliftingMusicbr
@UpliftingMusicbr Жыл бұрын
I dont know where you live in rio, but never been so cold here . In copacabana / ipanema I never used jackets in winter , maybe one or 2 days, now have used even in October. Plus much less beach days this last 2 years. Summer being less warm and winter / fall / autumm much colder.
@daveduffy2823
@daveduffy2823 Жыл бұрын
I’ve noticed something similar here in my part of the Mid Atlantic US. Winters have been mild enough that I don’t need my snowblower and summers are not as hot. There hasn’t been a string of days in the 100’s F and the week of bitter cold in January is gone too.
@ricktd6891
@ricktd6891 Жыл бұрын
It's a scam.
@Ralph_Baric_PhD_C2019
@Ralph_Baric_PhD_C2019 Жыл бұрын
@@UpliftingMusicbr do you remember 1974,75,76 ? Last time it happened ?
@linmal2242
@linmal2242 Жыл бұрын
@@ricktd6891 ?
@jimgraham6722
@jimgraham6722 Жыл бұрын
As a 80yo Australian I can assure you the La Nina currently being experienced is nothing out of the box. It maybe bit stronger than run of the mill La Ninas but nothing extraordinary. The La Nina to La Nina cycle, with intervening El Ninos typically lasts 10-15 years. I can recall at least four strong La Ninas in my lifetime. Like previous strong La Ninas, this one is likely to end suddenly with the outbreak of a Kelvin Wave off the Pacific coast of Ecuador. My expectation is this will happen within twenty four months and that within forty eight months Australia will be in grip of drought and heat waves arising from a strong El Nino cycle. Meanwhile a curious aspect of the current La Nina is that global sealevels are likely to drop measurably as many cubic kilometres of water are spread over the normally dry Australian continent.
@secondotranquilli3973
@secondotranquilli3973 Жыл бұрын
Why, who needs instruments, and record keeping, when you can have one man's anecdotal assurances to bear witness.
@thierrylandrieu7441
@thierrylandrieu7441 Жыл бұрын
@@secondotranquilli3973 sure , why believe yours eyes when experts are there to tell the truth and use your taxpayer money .
@TreeLBollingTreeMan
@TreeLBollingTreeMan Жыл бұрын
@@secondotranquilli3973 I'm curious as to what's your age, level of education and what sex you identify as. As humans mature they on the average learn to value and respect the knowledge of elders.
@y2kmagna
@y2kmagna Жыл бұрын
The major influence on our weather is the sun. It has an eleven year cycle. Perhaps that solar cycle is what causes the La Nina and El Nino cycle. We are currently in the upswing of solar storm activity in the eleven year cycle.
@thierrylandrieu7441
@thierrylandrieu7441 Жыл бұрын
@@y2kmagna when you consider the atmosphere is 1/1000th of the diameter of the earth , it is incredible how it can be stable at all .
@murraygingrich9926
@murraygingrich9926 Жыл бұрын
As always a great job. Thank you
@davideggleton5566
@davideggleton5566 Жыл бұрын
I heard news in the past day that our 3rd year of La Nina is actually showing signs of abating (yet it's only marginal so far). Here in Sydney, we have certainly experienced a particularly milder and wetter summer than is typical around here. The news article suggested we should shift towards at least a neutral, if not El Nino condition by late 2023. The downside to El Nino (for us) is that condition is often associated with heat waves, droughts and fires (especially following wetter seasons that promoted more undergrowth)
@TheCaptainLulz
@TheCaptainLulz Жыл бұрын
You missed a third factor in the unusual rains in Australia this year, the Hunga Tonga volcanic explosion. The blast it caused shot 146 terragrams of water into the stratosphere, adding to the other two factors. Ash and water (there wasnt much ash from it but there was huge quantities of water) in the troposphere falls quickly and isnt a long term concern. But Hunga Tonga shot it so high it entered the stratosphere, and that takes years to remove. It has a greenhouse effect that added to the system that is causing this weather. Im not sure if all the data on it is out yet though.
@abc-mr7we
@abc-mr7we Жыл бұрын
Some other weather channels have covered this. It's very interesting.
@DavidDragonhammer
@DavidDragonhammer Жыл бұрын
Tornado's, hurricanes ,have a effect on our climate,so does the taconic plate movement,and so do earthquakes,volcano's,and birds flapping their wings on other side of the world ,awww joy of climate change,in truth nobody can really change any of it,but keep trying,we haven't been on earth that long,maybe we will go poof,or maybe not,but fun to waste money....
@andersandersen6295
@andersandersen6295 Жыл бұрын
Yeah all the billions spent on trying to change the climate, can be deleted by a single damn volcano. its a waste of money to try and fight nature.
@SilvaDreams
@SilvaDreams Жыл бұрын
Yup, that is one thing climate change activists always over look. We've had 400 years of increasing volcanic activity which makes anything we humans put out for CO2 and green house gases look like a fart in the wind.
@peterfrance7489
@peterfrance7489 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, watch out for those terrorgrams - a million times worse than killergrams
@danaharden6283
@danaharden6283 Жыл бұрын
Have you looked into the fact that they are still excluding solar forcing in these models, but are now about to be forced to acknowledge it?
@The_DC_Kid
@The_DC_Kid Жыл бұрын
I wanted to learn more information so I searched what caused past global glaciations (aka Ice Ages) and I found my answer. To synopsize, Earth's distance from the sun fluctuates and we currently are in a closer, warm phase that we're about halfway through. In a few hundred years the next event will start cooling Earth and then the climate will get colder pretty quickly but the full change to Ice Age takes many hundred of years or more which is why people can't actually discern it for themselves. Ice sheets two miles thick crush to dust ANYTHING humans can build and when they retreat due to warming unbelievably torrential flooding follows and continues for millennia, meaning that between the ice and the flooding any evidence and accomplishments of possible somewhat advanced prior civilizations might be completely obliterated and washed away.
@bobbygetsbanned6049
@bobbygetsbanned6049 Жыл бұрын
How are they about to be forced?
@KiwiSentinel
@KiwiSentinel Жыл бұрын
Or increased atmospheric moisture due to warming. Anything to avoid admitting the anthropogenic drivers of current climate change. La Nina patterns are part of the event not contrary to it.
@KiwiSentinel
@KiwiSentinel Жыл бұрын
@@bobbygetsbanned6049 do you understand the basics of climate science?
@DanielMartinez-ss5co
@DanielMartinez-ss5co Жыл бұрын
Solar cycles and solar activity, volcanic activity, are important into short time models (periods about 100 years). New models could include them as important factors, not like nowadays excluded by "ceteris paribus"
@thesilkpainter
@thesilkpainter Жыл бұрын
Many thanks! Great update!
@maxheadrom3088
@maxheadrom3088 Жыл бұрын
in Dynamic Control Theory, and increase in the amplitude and frequency of oscillations indicate the system is reaching the outter parts of the convergence region. (convergence region is a region in the mathematical space of the variables - within the region the system moves around a pole and if it leaves it, the system will go to some other, unknown, pole)
@bigred8438
@bigred8438 Жыл бұрын
There is a famous poem written by Dorothea Mckellar. It begins: I love a sun burnt country, a land of sweeping plains of rugged mountain ranges of droughts and flooding rains... All Australian who have been here for a few generations know about the reference to droughts and flooding rains in her poem, because we experience them a few times in out lives. With El Nino, we can experience drought for 10 year stretches, and usually coupled with it, is plenty of bush fires. I prefer la Nina, but sometimes the amount of rain is equal to the tropics. Darwin (in the tropical zone), for example has an average rainfall of 2 metres per year, so Sydney has experienced that amount of rain already. It is worth noting that the Sydney sandstone geology was formed by high level and consistent erosion of some massively tall mountains, which have been replaced with the sandstone massifs now there. Nature is our master, humans in the face of it are insignificant. Adaptation to the extremes, is the best strategy.
@guser7137
@guser7137 Жыл бұрын
Yes, it seems that people with an agenda are more than happy to restrict the scope or timescale to suit their arguments. Australia has always been a land of extremes. But sure, force us all back to serfdom.
@bigred8438
@bigred8438 Жыл бұрын
@@guser7137 If you are talking about the fascist left yes we will all end up either dead or as serfs, if we keep swallowing...the climate alarmist rubbish. The fascist Green left will only be happy once they bring in their preferred method of getting things done, AI and androids and anyone centre right in political views can abide by their way of doing things or go off to the Soylent Green factory. But if you mean humans are destined for perpetual serfdom because of climate change, I would say yes unless you adapt. 95% of species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct now due to climate change, volcanism and meteorites and geomagnetic pole shifts or weakening and changes to our sun etc.
@joedee1863
@joedee1863 Жыл бұрын
@@guser7137 - " und vot iz wrong viz a little serdom ? " - Kraut Shwarb 😫
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 Жыл бұрын
@@guser7137 blah
@guser7137
@guser7137 Жыл бұрын
@@ppetal1 You're welcome. My point still stands.
@cinemaipswich4636
@cinemaipswich4636 Жыл бұрын
Unlike other parts of the Earth, Australia is uniquely placed as a single continent, with 4 weather patterns around it. In some ways it is a plain model for it is rather flat, and has a large desert heart. It has been a while since I saw storms traveling across the landscape from the Indian Ocean. It has rained on and off for the last 3 years, and the ground is saturated, and Lake Eyre is filling up.
@guser7137
@guser7137 Жыл бұрын
Certainly cyclical. The question is of timescale. Migratory birds have been aware that Lake Eyre can and does become wet.
@frankcarr6920
@frankcarr6920 Жыл бұрын
Here in Cancún Mexico we've had warmer and wetter winters for three years running. I've also noticed that South Africa has had a lot of rain this year
@user-li2wm3gc5f
@user-li2wm3gc5f 10 ай бұрын
I have a friend who is a helicopter plot in the middle east. A new helicopter with the latest in carbon fibre technology and computer simulated testing was purchased by the company. The tail rotor fell off after a few hours flying. The experts from the factory came to inspect it and were puzzled and could not understand why it happened because the computer design should not have failed!!!
@gyrateful
@gyrateful Жыл бұрын
Eastern Tasmania has been trending wetter over the last decade or so. Maybe it is the circumpolar West Wind Drift, positioning southward that is causing this. This is a good video on the Southern Hemisphere's weather and climate, thanks JHT.
@piotrwojdelko1150
@piotrwojdelko1150 Жыл бұрын
Different strange things have been happening now I have been witnesses of what is going in Amoc system because I live in Poland and the UK.I have vineyard in Poland and I'm checking weather frequently.Summers are definitely not warmer but winters are warmer in Poland . I have noticed over active Atlantic circulation with much rain in Poland.it used to be -35 a decade ago in winter now there is a rain and max -9C with maritime climate style effect.Cold dry air pushed further east.I guess atmosphere is trying to get rid of warmth form Atlantic ocean
@em945
@em945 Жыл бұрын
There is another commenter from the south east coast of NZ saying similar about the extra wettness. I am just north of Melbourne on land, and watch WeatherwatchNZ youtube channel for good forcasting if you need it. It has lots of Tassie reference on it that seems to be lacking on Australian forcasts.
@johnl5316
@johnl5316 Жыл бұрын
see....kzfaq.info/get/bejne/ppuWa5eHmc7bk6s.html on models
@cathyrozon1786
@cathyrozon1786 Жыл бұрын
They have been cloud seeding since 1947 you can look it up on KZfaq they are not trying to hide it, most of it’s done by the military and contractors I live on the south shore of the St. Lawrence river and there are days when you could play checkers in the sky ,chemtrails last and then form wispy clouds ,vapour trails Disperse within 30 seconds so they are not the same
@sachiperez
@sachiperez Жыл бұрын
I really appreciate the style, pace and content of your videos. Thank you!
@JustHaveaThink
@JustHaveaThink Жыл бұрын
Glad you like them!
@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler
@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler Жыл бұрын
@@JustHaveaThink look into the fact that we are supposed to be entering into an ice age right now we are burning fossil fuels to be able to prevent this ice age... I think it is important to regulate the temperature of the planet we need to be able to control our carbon footprint as well as being able to control the temperature of the planet through such implementations.
@gregbailey45
@gregbailey45 Жыл бұрын
@@AquarianSoulTimeTraveler it's a bold experiment!
@mdoliner526
@mdoliner526 Жыл бұрын
The persistent la Nina also seems to be affecting the decline of arctic ice, which had a record minimum extent in 2012 that it has non exceeded, though it has gotten close, since.
@derelictor
@derelictor Жыл бұрын
It's incredible how many youtube comments are able to dismantle decades and thousands of studies about climate change in mere seconds. Your free thinking without any kind of political bias at all is astonishing. Pat on the back yourselves. You're amazing!!!
@MrCSutton
@MrCSutton Жыл бұрын
Please list all the adverse climate predictions by your thousands of studies from, say, the last fifty years that have come true. (To help you, there aren't any.)
@derelictor
@derelictor Жыл бұрын
@@MrCSutton you have a few of them at the IPCC reports ;)
@grindupBaker
@grindupBaker Жыл бұрын
Pablo Balbontín Yeah I've found it hilarious for 10 years. Really could they even be any more transparently having no interest at all in the science and only in their money ? I think not. I think they couldn't possible show more clearly their SOLE interest in life .. M O N E Y. It's hilariously comical. Most of them are sock puppets, they have empty "Channels", accounts set up only for trolling climate change videos with cut'n'paste parroted Drivel Memes that have been concocted for them by professional liars, it's quick'n' easy. 9 years ago I had several exchanges with a "Gina Titnaw" before a bloke told me she's a sock puppet account of a bloke who works for a Ruzzian oil company. Some of them are obviously A.I. computer programs now, they are good but not so good that you can't spot them robocalling in the comments.
@markmccullough5873
@markmccullough5873 Жыл бұрын
From what I've read they've plugged in data from past years into the models and they get wildly different results from what actually happened.
@Kalicdire
@Kalicdire Жыл бұрын
Models based on human made expectations rather than actual data. As well as cherry picking historical data like increases in tornado report through the 90s after the implementation of a satellite monitoring system and recording F0 tornadoes when F1s were hardly reported in the past. Most of the hottest recorded temps are in the 1930s but the data we are shown begins in the 80s
@tonyclayton6975
@tonyclayton6975 Жыл бұрын
@@Kalicdire Most of the hottest recorded temperatures where? Talk about cherry picking.
@Kalicdire
@Kalicdire Жыл бұрын
@@tonyclayton6975 all over the world
@tonyclayton6975
@tonyclayton6975 Жыл бұрын
@@Kalicdire That is simply not true. If you believe it is, show me the data.
@jaydunbar7538
@jaydunbar7538 Жыл бұрын
@@tonyclayton6975 just google heat records, you’ve made it clear you wouldn’t believe anything he said anyway.
@siamsurf
@siamsurf Жыл бұрын
The problem with most climate models is, that they take the sun's output/activity as a constant. The way scientists who point at the sun are mostly ignored reminds me of the movie "Don't look up".
@andyman8630
@andyman8630 Жыл бұрын
bingo! Earth receives more energy from the Sun *in just one day* than all of humanity combined uses in 25 years - solar output varies by around 3%, however that variation is only a tiny speck of data as we've only been recording it for a very short time in a 4 billion year history also Earths' magnetosphere is highly variable as is Earths' orbit and Precessional wobble - modern 'science' and their models ignore all these factors
@saschaesken5524
@saschaesken5524 Жыл бұрын
Some scientists claim Suns Spektrum changed to more visible Light( longer waves) and less shortwaves causing earths warmup.
@Johnzland
@Johnzland Жыл бұрын
Suspicious observers KZfaq channel covers this
@clearskiesthailand
@clearskiesthailand Жыл бұрын
Excellent comments. Here in Thailand it has been cooler and wetter these past two years which is to be expected with La Nina.
@TheOverlordFrank
@TheOverlordFrank Жыл бұрын
So... almost a quarter of the way into the 21st century and we've only seen one instance of an event that only happened four times last century; truly astounding.
@Tqoratsos666
@Tqoratsos666 Жыл бұрын
no, you missunderstood. We've had it four years running (so far) when we only had four total years in the past century.
@TheOverlordFrank
@TheOverlordFrank Жыл бұрын
@@Tqoratsos666 Um, no. Go back and listen again at 1:19. The speaker is referring to the count of La Nina periods equal to or exceeding 3 years since 1900. I did make a minor error in my statement, in that i referred to last century, whereas the speaker was actually referring to the entire period since 1900, though it's not clear to me from looking at the actual data if he's counting the current event as one of the ones since 1900. Again, given that 24 La Nina events have occurred in the 123 years since the start of 1900, comprising 58 years in that period and most of them go for 2-3 years, I'm really not sure what point is being made, which was the general thrust of my original comment. I'm also not sure how to reconcile the statement with the actual data when you go and look at it, but I'm not going to go into that here.
@SoloRenegade
@SoloRenegade Жыл бұрын
my utility provider shows temps have been cooling year after year for years now. they track temps and show our energy usage compared to cost and temps and you can save your data out, but if you don't they'll let you see 2yrs back. it's been getting cold year after year here in the US for multiple years now.
@michaeljoy9061
@michaeljoy9061 Жыл бұрын
We live in the foothills of Jaramillo in Chiriqui in western Panama. Being in the tropics we have reliable wet and dry seasons. What we have witnessed (due to La Nina) is an early start (starting right now instead of mid December) to the dry season, but record rainfall in the wet season. So far this year we have had over 240 inches (20 ft, or over 6.0 m) of rain, whereas in a normal year would have between 150 and 180 inches.
@rociomiranda5684
@rociomiranda5684 Жыл бұрын
Costa Rica saw the heaviest rainy season in decades last year. The dry season was milder than usual. We'll see what this year brings.
@scomo532
@scomo532 Жыл бұрын
The long term forecast for the PNW and California back in October claimed that Oregon would be a bit wetter than normal and California would be drier than normal. Here we are at then end of December and the Umpqua River is approaching flood stage and LA is expected to get 8 inches of rain in the next 6 days. So much for climate models
@winfriedtheis5767
@winfriedtheis5767 Жыл бұрын
Your video title actually made me think of one of my most favourite citations from George Box, one of the founding fathers of industrial statistics: “All models are wrong, but some are useful!” Pointing to the problem that all models however sophisticated, will always make simplifications or assumptions, which cannot be proven! And as the comments before this suggest in this case it might be a single event was not part of the long-term global models as it was not possible to predict. And I also believe it is extremely difficult to actually measure, or separate from a legion of much smaller but also very impactful events. That is the challenge with observational data, you can never be sure if you have not overlooked or dismissed an important influence… ;-) So if you are in the fortunate position to be able to design your experiments, do make use of this and check out the fantastic method of statistical experimental design!
@kasiar1540
@kasiar1540 Жыл бұрын
"Useful" to commit fraud and enact "lockdowns" which is a euphemism for imprisonment + slavery
@johnoh1667
@johnoh1667 Жыл бұрын
Good reply. If you notice, china was in great trouble last year with the yellow river dam overflowing. Its almost empty at this point! Other places like the Hoover dam is also almost empty...BUT other DRY places are quite wet.. unusually so. El Nina is the issue!
@mossm717
@mossm717 Жыл бұрын
thanks once again for making extremely comprehensive videos that anyone can understand! We need people to understand the science in order to take action
@kayakMike1000
@kayakMike1000 Жыл бұрын
The most accurate thing he said was the models are wrong. He says the researchers don't know what's going on. Then the researchers make a prediction that GHG induced climate change will reverse the current trend and cause calamity.
@jamese9283
@jamese9283 Жыл бұрын
There is no science to understand. Their models are consistently wrong. The only science they are doing is cherry-picking the data to scare you into the action of disrupting your life and paying more taxes with the absurd idea that the government can control the weather.
@notinterested8452
@notinterested8452 Жыл бұрын
Science hahahaha 🤣
@bolt5916
@bolt5916 Жыл бұрын
Problem with climate change is things change an I find it hard to believe they know exactly the damage an the way it should change. Look predicting the weather a week ahead is barley possible now yet I'm suppose to believe you know what the weather will be in 30 year's from now 😂 to be clear obviously global warming is a thing but saying what it'll be in decades from now is ludicrous, our planet evolves it has for past couple billion years, planet will be fine however those rich elites that run everything an live mostly on beaches, Florida,Cali, Hawaii surely will have to relocate. Don't think that has anything do with this do you?
@timfallon8226
@timfallon8226 Жыл бұрын
@@notinterested8452 Trust the science, trust the science, squack.
@rikki1960
@rikki1960 Жыл бұрын
I've lived in Melbourne (Australia) for 30 years and the weather has most definitely cooled; we rarely have a spring just a very long and tiresome winter.
@silverdale3207
@silverdale3207 Жыл бұрын
same here in NZ, nearly December and still got the fire going.
@credenza1
@credenza1 Жыл бұрын
The harm caused by the Australian rain events was due largely to bad planning decisions, in building dense housing in flood plains, and in insufficient attention to preventive infrastructure. This tends to be the origin of the harm inflicted by most catastrophic events.
@stevewiles7132
@stevewiles7132 Жыл бұрын
In North West Tasmania, there has been a noticeable change over the years, but if you could go back far enough, you would no doubt see constant change. But I think the major change is the number of people living in areas more likely to be affected by floods, fires, etc.
@geoffcapper5025
@geoffcapper5025 Жыл бұрын
So the real number and magnitude of floods and fires equals the number and magnitude floods and fires divided by the number of people affected? Got it 👍
@BrianStDenis-pj1tq
@BrianStDenis-pj1tq Жыл бұрын
Any change you notice over the years is anecdotal. Humans don't control the weather.
@geoffcapper5025
@geoffcapper5025 Жыл бұрын
@@BrianStDenis-pj1tq Your first statement is illogical. If I notice the sun moving across the sky throughout the day there is nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about it. Change is change. Whether that short-term change is indicative of a long-term effect can *sometimes* only reliably be determined by accurate scientific measurements, but there are a multitude of cases where observed change is obviously indicative of long-term systemic change. There's nothing anecdotal (unreliable) about watching a glacier disappear over a person's lifetime. Your second statement redeems you somewhat. Humans don't control the weather, control implies the ability to direct something toward a desired, determined outcome. Instead we provide a forcing, a push toward chaos with the pollution from our activity, as we are now seeing. We have absolutely no control over it, but will have to weather the consequences.
@zeldaharris6876
@zeldaharris6876 Жыл бұрын
@@geoffcapper5025 that not what he said - at all.
@BrianStDenis-pj1tq
@BrianStDenis-pj1tq Жыл бұрын
@@geoffcapper5025 This is a statistics issue. The measure of temperature that you can observe daily, typically reported as the daily high temperature, fluctuates wildly. The global mean temperature, made up of millions of square miles of wildly fluctuating temperatures cannot be observed over a few years in a single location nor in a dozen locations. This applies to every global weather statistic, from rain to tornadoes to melting glaciers. Local observations are statistically unrelated events compared to the global trend. And, as you surly know, its already been hotter on this planet than it is now, and its been colder also. There has been more CO2 in the air than now in the past. So, again, measuring a few years or even hundreds of years really doesn't tell us cause and effects in such a chaotic system.
@budawang77
@budawang77 Жыл бұрын
Rainfall here in Canberra, Australia (inland far south east corner) is running about 50% above average this year. This comes on the back of two years of well above average rainfall. I've never seen it looking so green. Rivers have a lot of water flow but luckily we are not susceptible to flooding around here. The severe drought and fires of 2019 are slowly fading from memory.
@jeremyashford2115
@jeremyashford2115 Жыл бұрын
There will be more droughts There will be more floods. Australia!
@gregbailey45
@gregbailey45 Жыл бұрын
They'll be back... (Apologies to Arnold)
@petercoxable
@petercoxable Жыл бұрын
Canberra. Do people actually live there?
@johnhuston650
@johnhuston650 Жыл бұрын
Thank your lucky stars!
@budawang77
@budawang77 Жыл бұрын
@@petercoxable I think I saw one last week. Hard to see through the foliage so it could have been a kangaroo.
@WorldwideWelshman
@WorldwideWelshman Жыл бұрын
Interesting video! Great to get a small insight into how real world data is being collected and published to improve global climate models. These models are a good example of global collaboration. I wish to response to some of the comments on this video: the papers highlighted here show there are some unknown factors in the climate models which may be leading to inaccuracies (which is inevidatable, as it is a very complex model). My guess is that the models are based on historical records taken from ice, and that the full impact of human activity since the industrial (fossil fuel) revoltion is hard to factor in. As real world data is collected, the models are improved. Unfortunately, increasing extreme whether events such as droughts and flooding are increasing due to human activity as predicted in many IPCC reports. There's no 'get of jail free card'. So, urgent and drastic changes are needed. Specifically, moving away from fossil fuels and transitioning to a circular economic model rather than a linear one, and restoring natural habititats, moving to regenerative farming rather than industrial agriculture...and big respect to this channel for highlighting many of these solutions! Myself, I'm studying Green Building at CAT in Wales. My course is about how to adapt our built environemnt to be more energy efficient and to cope with more extreme weather, using low-impact materials. Thanks to Just Have a Think for the excellent and high quality content! Best regards, Liam
@derelictor
@derelictor Жыл бұрын
Don't waste your time, most of the comments are "BuT cLimAtE cHaNgE iS a HoAx"
@alchemyandGregBryers
@alchemyandGregBryers Жыл бұрын
A question.. could the crust upwelling (hot spot under the crust due to up-welling of magma etc have anything to do with this. there is a hot spot off the East Coast of NZ and there also seems to be an increase in volcanic activity there and around chain of fire...Thanks also for these videos... i enjoy your questions with out the hype and drama. Cheers from a New Zealander living in Austria
@questionreality6003
@questionreality6003 Ай бұрын
I know this one: volcanic activity all combined the crust over/under water does not even come close to the CO2 levels by Man and his burning approx 100 million barrels of oil per day.
@margrietoregan828
@margrietoregan828 Жыл бұрын
If we’d started planting millions of trees per annum - hundreds per annum per person - 40/50 years ago we’d be fine right now ….. vegetation not only drives - is - the CO2 // O2 cycle but is also totally the hydrological cycle too. ….. But now, several trillion trees short, we’re toast ……😮😢😮😢😮😢
@jasontempest4233
@jasontempest4233 Жыл бұрын
I live in Cairns on the far northern tropical coast of Queensland and is the wettest city in Australia. The tropical climate here is quite interesting with the trade winds blowing for months at a time bringing moisture to the coast even in the so called 'dry season'. I absolutely LOVE the rain, so this doesn't bother me however my heart goes out to regions in southern inland Australia. These regions have relatively flat topography, narrow rivers and infrastructure that isn't really suited to wet conditions. Worse still is the fact that most of the water will either run out to sea via the Murray River or just evaporate in the months to come. It's a shame some of the water couldn't be saved and used by our southern agricultural regions, though I know this gets quite political so.
@kelduck8851
@kelduck8851 Жыл бұрын
Don't worry, all our dams are full now, we have more than enough water for irrigation. Most of the land won't need irrigation for the rest of the year and into 2023. Dartmouth dam is full for the first time since 1996 at 102%. Many floodplains on the Murray/Darling are flooded, the River Gums will live a little longer. The entire river environment needs water flow and flooding , we use far too much of it and are killing those 2 great rivers. The Coorong in SA especially is in dire need of large flows of fresh water yearly, this years they will get a good flush. Lived in Cairns myself for 4 years, Vic is a bit like that now, wet, just colder!
@joedee1863
@joedee1863 Жыл бұрын
Jason Tempest - it's no use relying on beurocrats to come up with planning solutions. They're paper shufflers. I am sure it's feasible to harvest that water in underground reservoirs to to supply a massive growing area. It would be great to see Australian desert turn into lush tropical greenery. Check out Brazil"s Terra Preta.
@jasontempest4233
@jasontempest4233 Жыл бұрын
@@kelduck8851 That isn't long and before you know it, we'll be back to drought conditions with the next La Nina. I'm not old but I've already seen these cycles repeat time over again and again. Anyway I know my region will be well watered regardless but what about the southern inland?
@KoDeMondo
@KoDeMondo Жыл бұрын
I'm surprised no one here talk about of geoengineering programs. I have been back from a trip to Europe for a few weeks and I guarantee you that they sprayed the skies every day
@alexanderstone9463
@alexanderstone9463 Жыл бұрын
There’s something you missed about La Niña’s effect on the USA that’s really obvious now several months later. If you look at any map generalizing La Niña’s effects over history, you will notice that the greater Pacific Northwest, all the way down to North California, is supposed to get more precipitation than usual. This has happened on a massive scale in the past few months, though for whatever reason it’s moved a bit further south than usual. Consequently the rains have also penetrated into the Colorado river basin, but the distinct lack of precipitation there when compared to California still suggests that this is a typical La Niña effect.
@jonathangold2087
@jonathangold2087 10 ай бұрын
Very interesting questions you are posing in this video. I wonder if this doesn’t deserve some additional scrutiny by those doing the meteorological modeling that will be used to drive current and future policies. One has to wonder just how accurate these modeling scenarios actually are, and how accurately do they reflect what is actually going on? I wonder if these important questions will ever be looked into by the very policymakers we rely upon?
@iHelpSolveIt
@iHelpSolveIt Жыл бұрын
The current weather patterns match what i experienced as a 9 year old child in the 70's.
@johncadogan9450
@johncadogan9450 Жыл бұрын
Exactly I can remember clearly we thought it was never going to stop and for a kid that's not good, bloody rain.
@martinterrall9805
@martinterrall9805 Жыл бұрын
I think this prolonged La Nina is in part driven by the solar cycle. Between 2010 and 2012 there were 22 La Nina months.A fairly solid block of La Ninas.Roughly 10 years later the same thing has happened again, albeit a bit longer this time.
@andyman8630
@andyman8630 Жыл бұрын
all climate is controlled by the Sun - humans have absolutely nothing to do with it
@TheBelrick
@TheBelrick Жыл бұрын
Scientists.. the people yet to get climate change models right after fifty years of crystal ball guesses?
@TheBelrick
@TheBelrick Жыл бұрын
The solar wind cycle. Sun spots. Is an 11 year cycle. And in 2024 we will encounter the grand solar minimum. Predicted to bring a mini ice age
@andyman8630
@andyman8630 Жыл бұрын
@@TheBelrick crystal ball guesses? never knew they were that sophiosticated! i was sure they tossed coins!
@crucifixgym
@crucifixgym Жыл бұрын
How dare you comment here about things only one person knows about who is not you! 😂 I think we found the channel troll. 😉
@markbishop1138
@markbishop1138 Жыл бұрын
This is crazy how the weather is changing around the world. Drought in some areas and to much rain in another part of the world. I think that the weather will hit harder because hot and cold don't mix mlm
@Leonardo555ZZZ
@Leonardo555ZZZ Жыл бұрын
Sydney Australia just had 10 mornings in a row below 15 degrees C in summer ( December 2022 ). That has NEVER been recorded before.
@johnfox9169
@johnfox9169 Жыл бұрын
I would rather have MORE rain than less. Australia has had some viciously dry years. Interesting presentation. Excellent as usual.
@optimusmaximus9646
@optimusmaximus9646 Жыл бұрын
I agree, John. Vicious is the word alright. If you have lived on a farm you will know the effect they have on people. I remember hearing of one farmer who was in such despair because of the effects of one such drought, one day went out and shot his livestock and then shot himself. I know floods can be tragic and cause a lot of damage and loss of life, but most floods in Australia are usually single, short-term events and communities recover fairly quickly afterwards (except of course when you get one flood after another which has happened this year). Droughts, especially those that go on for years, cause far more damage to the land, even more so if it is accompanied by bushfires. Nevertheless, whether it is a flood or a drought, land and wildlife populations on the whole do recover. With the third consecutive La Nina, inland Australia has undergone a huge transformation with consistent rainfall. Flooding has made farming challenging but I think more water inland is preferable to none at all.
@steveyurash6409
@steveyurash6409 Жыл бұрын
I would like to see a "Just have a think" episode on the sun cycles. I watch them closely and it appears we are beginning a new cycle that will have a low number of sun spots indicating a lower amount solar radiation in certain parts of the spectrum and more gamma rays which quite possibly affects cloud formation.
@David-135
@David-135 Жыл бұрын
This change in Sun activity also increases earth quake and volcanic activity.
@Dan-gs3kg
@Dan-gs3kg Жыл бұрын
When are we going to talk about how most solar energy is not in UV or the Visible Spectrum, and its dominance in determining the various yearly and decadal weather cycles? Or that the Farmer's Almanac bases their predictions on solar weather, not IPCC models.
@float32
@float32 Жыл бұрын
@@David-135 what mechanism? I’ve never heard of this.
@xcrockery8080
@xcrockery8080 Жыл бұрын
What happened to the massive global cooling that the sunspot enthusiasts promised us from the last solar cycle?
@xcrockery8080
@xcrockery8080 Жыл бұрын
@@float32 I guess you're a slave to your 5G vaccine chips. Or something. Wouldn't it be nice if we had a social media platform that excluded the dingbats?
@glamdring0007
@glamdring0007 Жыл бұрын
Never forget the golden rule of computer modeling - Garbage in equals garbage out. Computer models in many cases are designed to "look for" an expected result. Most times if the expected result isn't achieved, the input data will be changed, to get the expected result instead of standing back and evaluating if computer modeling is even appropriate. There has been a trend in recent years to "just believe" whatever the models predict without question, which flies in the face of common sense and good science. This is a why no political body should base any policy on computer modeling...real world measurements are the only sensible method of creating policy.
@lrvogt1257
@lrvogt1257 Жыл бұрын
You've made a general implication of an entire field of science. Be specific. Who? When? (We are aware of the slander and how it was debunked)
@SeamusOR
@SeamusOR Жыл бұрын
I read somewhere that the Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai eruption earlier this year has pushed the southern annular mode further down over Antarctica which has allowed the la nina to be more prominent for this year.
@simoluk
@simoluk Жыл бұрын
could be seems like a chain reaction u say aye
@Rawkus919
@Rawkus919 Жыл бұрын
@Ozgeographics has a video on this. It is an interesting theory.
@SeamusOR
@SeamusOR Жыл бұрын
@@Rawkus919 that's where I heard it. Thought that name was familiar. I recommend looking at this video.
@andypoppey5243
@andypoppey5243 Жыл бұрын
I live in Arizona, our monsoon this year was record breaking in many spots.
@frankdesantis8078
@frankdesantis8078 Жыл бұрын
Tim, I like your model. I got it, just remember the figure 70!
@MeltedPearls
@MeltedPearls Жыл бұрын
I saw an excellent program from PBS (on this site) that pointed out cooling is the normal trend for Earth right now, but is interefered with by greenhouse gas activity working against it. In short, pollution is stopping natural global cooling trends.
@lrvogt1257
@lrvogt1257 Жыл бұрын
Right. The natural warm peak of this inter-glacial period was 6,000 years ago. Since the industrial revolution temperatures have climbed dramatically.
@xyzct
@xyzct Жыл бұрын
The less you know, the hotter you feel.
@stevenstart8728
@stevenstart8728 Жыл бұрын
"The land of drought and flooding rains, Bushfires and blowing dust, Never rains when you want it to, When it does it's too bloody much." I farm in the Wimmera district and this has been the case since settlement. Australia has really big rivers with even bigger floodplains for a reason even though they are mostly not much more than a trickle. Our problem is we have built cities on those floodplains. We also use the floodplains for intensive agriculture and some years we get washed out and some we are droughted out. Nothing new to report here.
@philwardle7369
@philwardle7369 Жыл бұрын
I'm in Tasmania, and as a keen sailor I have kept a close eye on the weather since forever. Weather patterns here have definitely changed in the last thirty years or so. Being in the "Roaring Forties", spring is usually really unsettled here, and brings repeated cold fronts with quick showers and especially very strong winds. Piss and wind weather, which makes the job of antifouling a yacht and getting it dry long enough to paint a real pain. This year we've barely had a single westerly buster that is enough to blow your hat off, nothing like the sixty knot gusts that we usually get. What we have had instead are huge low pressure troughs bringing moist air all the way from northern Oz, spreading down here from the east and hanging over our island literally like a dreary wet week. In fact there's one over my head right now and it's going to be here until next weekend; hardly any wind, but unending lowering skies, although not as much rain as it has dumped on the mainland.
@autohmae
@autohmae Жыл бұрын
Some have said Tonga's volcanic eruption had influence on the weather this year...
@dreddykrugernew
@dreddykrugernew Жыл бұрын
Did you know an ex NASA employee testified in the Aussie parliament that NASA where giving false ocean temperatures readings in the waters around Australia, it was on KZfaq the video...
@torqueover
@torqueover Жыл бұрын
Claiming that your observations over "30yrs or so" are "forever" is pure nonsense. Half Human lifetime perspectives on weather patterns are worthless.
@mrnobody043
@mrnobody043 Жыл бұрын
@@torqueover Of course, we have another "expert" here. Funny, how the "experts" show up in comments on youtube. So, "expert", why don't you enlighten us clueless people how things really are? The all knowing torqueover will have all the answers.
@michaelscurr9046
@michaelscurr9046 Жыл бұрын
@@autohmae your right the Tongan volcano blasted huge amounts of moisture into upper atmosphere With quite strong trade winds it was carried all the way across 2 us . The low dumping rain on the northern rivers region just sucked it all in.🤟
@hymns4ever197
@hymns4ever197 Жыл бұрын
Lots of good big picture overviews regarding the El Nino~/La Nina~ phenomenon. However, in summation scientists don't really know what causes them, and they were happening long before the internal combustion engine was invented. In my humble opinion they are caused by variations in solar energy, and perhaps underwater volcanic activity.
@KJensenStudio
@KJensenStudio Жыл бұрын
Questioning here , about the increased use of cloud seeding in a number of countries as a temporary drought alleviation. It's been my thinking that if you take water from one place, then another place will do without. Primitive thinking, yes, but could this have an effect upon the Ninas/Ninos?
@otashigo
@otashigo Жыл бұрын
I live in the andean part of Colombia and although we have seen 70% more rainfall than normal in the rainy season, which is something expected, what really intrigued me was how our temperatures during the dry season in the coldest months of the year have managed to reach below 0°C, something we are not used to see. And let me remind you again that I live in a pretty highly elevated place.
@MrTacosAndBurritos
@MrTacosAndBurritos Жыл бұрын
Very well written for a Andre's man ;)
@buttcheese1064
@buttcheese1064 Жыл бұрын
You are lying! Let’s forget for a moment about you being here to confuse dullards.
@slawomirhering3770
@slawomirhering3770 Жыл бұрын
Tell why carbon reductuction emission and CHEMTRAILS on the sky why? Are the power to be use the bast solution for human race ? Why people keep quiet and put up with everything and use starvation ,wars instead best solution? Because nobody have the brain to go take places and take the power away from parasites of this planet Banking Cartel.
@rivergrrrl1256
@rivergrrrl1256 Жыл бұрын
Earth’s magnetic field is thinning rapidly and solar flares are penetrating deeper into the atmosphere. Find a high altitude cave to shelter in just in case the magnetic shield thins further-- which it is trending to do and warm clothes and blankets. This weather forecaster is not paying attention to the sun’s cycles or earth’s thinning magnetic shield.
@leecrook6918
@leecrook6918 Жыл бұрын
@@rivergrrrl1256 Interesting. ...Who measured the magnetic field and how ?
@jordananderson1594
@jordananderson1594 Жыл бұрын
Interesting video, very informative. The thought I had while I was watching (and indeed, as soon as I saw the title) is the old quote from George Box: "all models are wrong, but some are useful". There is no way we will ever perfectly predict the trajectory of the climate, but I think the models we have are very useful for estimating the effects we expect in the future. Finding the deficiencies in the model and trying to improve them should be the goal, and I'm sure that is one of the outcomes this study will lead to.
@sytsevriend7933
@sytsevriend7933 Жыл бұрын
I wonder if there is a way to combine regional and global parameters in climate models.
@gordonsirmond9584
@gordonsirmond9584 Жыл бұрын
Off topic but have you ever done a video on the use of anaerobic digesters on a large scale for methane production. We produce large amounts of organic waste every day much of which ends up in places we don't want it. I have heard of digesters being used to power generators on a village scale in India but nothing on a town or city scale
@justinw1765
@justinw1765 Жыл бұрын
There are multiple major changes going on on our planet (and even in the Solar system as a whole) vs just increase in CO2 production. Climate change is not all just about extra CO2 production. For example, from about 1950 to 2000 or so, the Sun was in a grand Solar maximum. Climate researchers and models only account for the visible light energy of the Sun, which is a huge mistake. Irradiance doesn't change a lot from Solar cycle to Solar cycle. But, the Sun pumps energy into the earth (which can converted into heat) in multiple ways and the irony being that irradiance tends to drop slightly when sun spots go up (and with those, generally more Solar storms and explosions i.e. flares and CME's). Btw, one of the MAJOR changes going on with the earth besides climatic, is that of the magnetic poles and the magnetic field. The former are moving ever faster and the latter is getting ever weaker, faster and faster. This is not being caused by humans, CO2, nor human pollution of any kind. The various major changes in virtually all of the Solar system's planets (only not yet detected on Mercury so far) are also not being caused by humans and human pollution. It is really sad that independent, critical thinking, and holistic logic is a dying practice to be increasingly replaced by group think and the attitude of, "I only will believe what experts tell me to believe". If I had developed and kept such an attitude, the health problems I had as a teen would still be present, because mainstream medicine and doctors weren't helping one iota. I had to do my own research and had to think for myself. Meanwhile, the people who do readily and automatically partake in groupthink and only ever just believing experts, will automatically label someone like myself as probably "right wing", a Trump supporter, or the like--none of which is even the slightest bit true. Nope, I've just grown wary and tired of group think, over investment in belief systems, and have focused on becoming more objective and holistically logical in nature/approach. I used to identify with the "left", but now I don't identify with either side. All I see is corruption and b.s. on both sides.
@Eyes0penNoFear
@Eyes0penNoFear Жыл бұрын
This is one of the best written comments I've ever come across. Do you mind if I use it in the future? Eyes open, no fear.
@justinw1765
@justinw1765 Жыл бұрын
@@Eyes0penNoFear Sure, that is fine.
@Eyes0penNoFear
@Eyes0penNoFear Жыл бұрын
@@justinw1765 awesome thanks! And I have to ask. I have a cousin with your same name and last initial. You didn't happen to grow up in a small Nevada town did you? -KW
@grindupBaker
@grindupBaker Жыл бұрын
This is one of the most absurd gish gallops of total drivel & irrelevance I've ever come across. Do you mind if I use it in the future as an example of the worst sort of ignorant crap that you coal-oil-gas shill-Troll-Clowns put out ? Thanks.
@thetalkingbear
@thetalkingbear Жыл бұрын
Fires then flood. My heart goes out to Australia. Awesomely resilient people.
@princetate1586
@princetate1586 Жыл бұрын
The aborigians really are resilient are'nt they?
@zombi3lif3
@zombi3lif3 Жыл бұрын
At least one of earths biggest coal extractor, get a taste of theire own gloal impact, rather then the usual 3 world countries
@princetate1586
@princetate1586 Жыл бұрын
@@zombi3lif3 As a Zimbabwean I always found the term "3rd world" funny... as if you'd portal through some stargate or wormhole (two of them) to get here. 😅🤣
@jcoker423
@jcoker423 Жыл бұрын
@@zombi3lif3 And in English ?
@mattbrew11
@mattbrew11 Жыл бұрын
@@princetate1586 all the animals in the outback are, so yes.
@gufpott
@gufpott Жыл бұрын
The models got the tropospheric hotspot wrong, so it's pure guess work to suggest CO2 emissions will have any effect (the purported cause of a non-existent hotspot). Given the models got the tropospheric hotspot completely wrong, it's hardly a surprise when they get other things wrong.
@morganoverbay8783
@morganoverbay8783 7 ай бұрын
Here in Idaho the glaciers are quickly building depth and advancing in the lower valleys. We expect Boise to be plowed under by ice in three decades.
@robertgotschall1246
@robertgotschall1246 Жыл бұрын
I've read that Australia was once a much wetter place. While currant flooding is a calamity, as its counterpart drought here in the American SW, you have to wonder if something hasn't flipped, finally. Is this the new normal?
@sunspot42
@sunspot42 Жыл бұрын
Really longterm projections show Australia getting much wetter due to global warming, although it'll be so hot I'm not sure if the increased rainfall will fully compensate for the increased evaporation. Eventually if Antarctica melts the middle of Australia will become an enormous sea. The remainder of the continent will become much, much wetter and the weather moderated considerably.
@grindupBaker
@grindupBaker Жыл бұрын
Robert Gotschall There isn't any new normal because humans are changing it waaaay too fast for a planet. Whatever it is now it'll not be returning back to now for a few hundred years or now let alone returning back to late 20th century, because there's waaaay too much thermal inertia (or momentum if you like) in a PLANET.
@DanielVerberne
@DanielVerberne Жыл бұрын
@@sunspot42 If Australia's interior did fill to create an inland sea, it would be ironic because historic travels to discover Australia had been based in an assumption that it would host an inland sea; which of course failed to materialise.
@necropolistc6357
@necropolistc6357 Жыл бұрын
@@sunspot42 they canceled global warming because too many places are getting colder not warmer, they call it climate change now
@anonymousxish
@anonymousxish Жыл бұрын
The magnetic north pole is near alaska.Traveling at 1000 mph, the sky is not moving we are.
@timcarruthers2372
@timcarruthers2372 Жыл бұрын
The contents of your video excited me more than you could ever know. I have been alone, or so it feels, for at least twenty five years with my own climate model. What you are saying makes my model very viable. Global warming alarmist won’t like my model. WEF I’m sure won’t like my model. I’d love to share it with you. Is this the place? My model consists of a 70 year cycle and when you started your video with “they haven’t seen flooding like this since about 1950” alarm bells went off in my head. 70 years ago!!! That’s my cycle. Here’s my model without much detail. About 1900 temperatures are cooler, the northern passage is freezing over, threatening shipping, our built the Panama Canal to solve the problem. About 1935 temperatures are warmer. Truth is they called it the hottest driest decade in history and nick named it “the dirty thirties “. About 1970 temperatures are cooler. In school, in Canada, they are teaching us that we are going into an ice age. Our government is looking for bigger and better icebreakers to keep the northern passage open. About 2005 the temperatures are warmer. The alarmist are screaming global warming. World leaders are trying to eliminate the use of carbons. Everyone is going crazy. That takes us to about 2040. The temperatures should be cooler. I’m interested in your comments about my model. Please respond. Tim Carruthers
@stevemcatee5700
@stevemcatee5700 Жыл бұрын
There are so many variables critical to our weather around the world. Sun spots for one generally are on a 22 year cycle of 11 year Solar Max and Solar Minimum. The max refers to the periods where the sun is exploding its most violent radiation toward the Earth, often causing breakdowns of power stations and electronic media and communications, and most of all increased HEAT! Then the Solar Minimum where the Sunspots are the left over marks left from the massive explosions roasting everything they left behind. There is also the Maunder Minimum recorded by several scientists in the 1800's again effecting weather cycles following patterns. El Nino and La Nina are warming and cooling areas of the oceans which change the deep water currents effecting everything salinity, currents, weather, etc. and of course the atmospheric weather bringing storms and chaos to the seas and oceans and water to the entire system with rain and clouds. Trying to model this system with a computer in a short period of time is next to impossible as the records are vague and often incorrect, recently being used to manipulate Human behavior and politics for often nefarious purposes! The fires in the Western states and Australia, all connected to these many things with our governments invariably refusing to clear forest undergrowth and provide roads and firebreaks. And failure to understand the devilish winds whipping through hills and valleys starting and increasing wild fires, mostly by arson and lightning by ineffective fire controls. Peace sm
@shaker1485
@shaker1485 Жыл бұрын
Tim, I'm not a scientist but I've read a little. It seems some of the volcanoes in the past have caused weather pattern changes, though temporary and short lived. Like when krakatoa blew in the 1800s and following year without a summer? They were getting snow in July and couldn't plant crops that year. A lot of people starved! Now with all the pollution from industrialization of the modern world and natural cycles of the earth's weather, sun spots, under ground nuclear tests. My point, with all the variables and no long term records except ice cores..... We have no idea what's going on or what's going to happen. Ice age brought on by global warming? It's all really a guess!
@davidlawrenson2103
@davidlawrenson2103 Жыл бұрын
Sounds pretty good to me. Older people who have had long experience of the unpredictability of weather are much less impressed by Chicken Licken stories that the sky is falling down that some younger people who know better!
@shaker1485
@shaker1485 Жыл бұрын
@@davidlawrenson2103 David, I'm not saying that the world's weather is not a problem. What I'm saying is even with ice cores telling us what the earth's weather was like even 50 thousand years ago is irrelevant. We are here and now. The earth 50 thousand years ago wasn't feeding nearly 8 billion people, have all the pollution from industial, having an island of trash floating in the Pacific Ocean around the equator area. Those ice cores won't show how raging wildfires are filling the atmosphere with ash and co2, or how much pollution tens of thousands of jets taking off every day from airports, country's burning coal, oil and gas for energy. There's nothing in the ice cores that'll reflect the damage we're doing to the earth. But sooner or later, mother nature will make it right. That's why the earth is 4 and a half billion years old and man has been here for what a couple hundred thousand years?
@davidlawrenson2103
@davidlawrenson2103 Жыл бұрын
@@shaker1485 Sorry Shaker, I was replying to Tim's point not knocking you. I went on a cruise from the UK to New Zealand via the Panama canal a couple of years ago crossing both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. I didn't see much of anything, just a few birds and one ship. I certainly didn't see any pollution, just endless miles of ocean. I'm not saying there aren't a few plastic bottles but I didn't see any oil slicks , dead polar bears or the like. Considering Carbon Dioxide is absolutely essential to all life and it makes up just one third of one tenth of one percent of the atmosphere , I wouldn't dare describe it as pollution. It is no more a pollutant than oxygen or water.
@harrynac6017
@harrynac6017 Жыл бұрын
This year, and probably next year aswell, there's also the influence of the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption. It's inpact is bigger than initially thought, specially on Australia, but also worldwide. For instance NASA reported about this.
@michaelwillis5040
@michaelwillis5040 Жыл бұрын
A very interesting and very affordable Kindle edition regarding climate is Javier Vinos book "Climate of the Past, Present and Future: A scientific debate" , 2nd ed. The book is an overview of much of the science. While a great deal of it may be over the heads of readers it's possible to get a good idea of the meaning nonetheless.
@kimweaver1252
@kimweaver1252 Жыл бұрын
I'm a Hawaii resident since 1962 I have seen significant changes in the patterns here, and we have the (usually) advantage of a lot of water to moderate the changes. But the NE Trade Winds which were the predominate pattern here are now rare. The wind more often comes from the E. and has less velocity, and we have week long periods of near windless conditions. Temps are higher, on average. A HOT day was in the high 80s F. and now we have some weeks where the temps bounce around 90F, even approaching 100F. in some areas. Rainfall patterns are very different. Coastal erosion is now an economic threat, as beaches disappear and homes are threatened. Coral reefs are not doing well and large food fish are disappearing, with attendant price increases.
@mattbrew11
@mattbrew11 Жыл бұрын
Just imagine the catastrophic swings you would have observed if you were 15,000 years old
@kimweaver1252
@kimweaver1252 Жыл бұрын
@@mattbrew11 Or fifteen million. Or a hundred and fifty million. So what?
@mattbrew11
@mattbrew11 Жыл бұрын
@@kimweaver1252 so the climate has been literally unlivable for humans countless times before we got here and will continue to become that way long after we are gone. Thats if a comet strike like the one that ended the last ice age and wiped out 90% of humans did 11,000 years ago doesn’t get us first.
@SpaceManAus
@SpaceManAus Жыл бұрын
What I hate is they are spraying chemtrails to change weather patterns and no one is accounting the changes to them, I have seen it over and over were they have used it to create droughts and floods. The rain is toxic now full of nano particle aluminum coating all it comes into contact making everything a fire danger, if you are still allowed to have your water tested for the aluminium with a electron microscope you will see what I mean.
@grahammillington790
@grahammillington790 Жыл бұрын
Your comments do not match the data. I suggest you stop imagining problems and educate yourself on the true weather patterns of your area. Your comments here do not reflect reality. You are indulging in propaganda.+
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