Election 2020: what the data tell us

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Election 2020: what the data tell us

Рет қаралды 408,355

Күн бұрын

The presidential election has been transformed by data. From key swing states and early voting to voter suppression and possible election-night chaos, Elliott Morris, our data journalist and election guru, discusses his polling predictions and answers your questions about the 2020 race for the White House.
Register for our free webinar Trump v Biden: what it means for the economy: subscribereven...
00:00 - An unprecedented election
00:35 - Why should we trust election predictions?
02:03 - How will the pandemic affect election predictions?
03:04 - Voter turnout in swing states
03:55 - Why we don’t use early voting data in our forecast
05:14 - Mail-in ballot rejection rates
07:38 - How long can we expect to wait for the results?
08:42 - Could the results flip after all mail-in ballots are counted?
09:39 - Will Americans accept the election result?
Further reading:
Find the Economist’s coverage of the US elections here: www.economist....
Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest US election coverage: econ.st/3l79OHi
Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: econ.st/2CQRUr2
Sign up to The Economist’s weekly “Checks and Balance” newsletter to keep up to date with our coverage of American politics: econ.st/3l5C4dl
Read about concerns surrounding voter suppression in America: econ.st/3do8tII
Why Amy Coney Barrett’s supreme court nomination is so contentious: econ.st/3lLyhRT
Read about how religious partisanship is influencing American politics: econ.st/2SUKnvS
Read about the foreign and domestic risks that plague America’s 2020 elections: econ.st/3nPbKFJ

Пікірлер: 677

@TheEconomist 3 жыл бұрын

On Wednesday November 4th-the day after the polls close-we will be hosting a discussion with Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, and John Prideaux, our US editor. Tune in to hear their analysis of what happened in America’s election and insights into what might come next.

@DavidWilson-sm2ym 3 жыл бұрын

Economist, you NEED to buy Elliot some bookshelves. ASAP!

@cloudchaser907 3 жыл бұрын

Lol.

@earthwormjum 3 жыл бұрын

Can we please get a Kickstarter campaign going to get that guy some bookshelves!!

@pg205 3 жыл бұрын

@Morahman7vnNo2 ...but then, he will have more books...

@theophilosmantzanas9203 3 жыл бұрын

Reminds me of major professor at FSU. He always had more books than shelves. The nature of the beast.

@Longtack55 3 жыл бұрын

My friend is a self-employed editor, and her work area at home is floor-to-ceiling free-standing stacks of unread books. It may be a rite of passage.

@farzankh 3 жыл бұрын

:))))))

@JusZel 3 жыл бұрын

great observation! so funny.

@Tom-mf5fu 3 жыл бұрын

If only journalists were like this we would be all better

@573355415 3 жыл бұрын

He reads a lot of books

@LOTUSELISE340R 3 жыл бұрын

@John Smith ...and that's why you don't smoke the whole bag of sativa pessimistica at one time, folks.

@coolbluereview 3 жыл бұрын

@John Smith You just don’t get your news from journalists but rather from entertainers. If all news was fake news then facts wouldn’t exist.

@Tom-mf5fu 3 жыл бұрын

@Morahman7vnNo2 I'm not sure. The room looks like an office and there are folders, I think they are not his

@badlydrawnturtle8484 3 жыл бұрын

The easy summary for why predicting this election is so difficult: Predicting election outcomes relies on modeling, which in turn relies on data input from previous election cycles. This means a prediction is, in a sense, the "average" of previous elections. This in turn means that a built-in assumption of an election prediction is that it's an average, normal, typical election. This falls apart when it's apparent that the election cycle we are currently going through is not average, normal, or typical. The election models are, by their nature, operating on a false assumption of normalcy.

@Lalox16x 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks

@searose6192 3 жыл бұрын

Not to mention the other MAJOR problems; pollsters use weighting rather than actually gathering a representative sample meaning their margins of error are far bigger for individual subgroups than is represented in their margin for the poll, and second people lie on polls (10% of Trump supporters lie to pollsters about who they support)

@somethingclever4563 3 жыл бұрын

Well put

@badlydrawnturtle8484 3 жыл бұрын

@@searose6192 1. They use weighting because despite their best efforts, getting a truly representative sample to actually answer the poll is HARD. 2. That would seem to be a problem with Trump supporters: If you lie to polls, you don't get to then blame the pollsters when the polls are inaccurate.

@bradywade7123 3 жыл бұрын

I appreciate the more in depth look at things rather than just saying Trump is losing. It actually shows us aspects of polling that have changed since 2016. Not a bad media video.

@Gamerad360 3 жыл бұрын

It hasn't changed much, they are still polling democrat areas.

@zackcascio5652 3 жыл бұрын

Economist leans Democrat but is a much better Media (IMO) than Cable News. As a conservative myself, I do appreciate their points of view.

@ps3rulesDD 3 жыл бұрын

@@zackcascio5652 That's actually a false statement. The Economist doesn't lean GOP or Democrat. It holds only the core liberal values. Universal suffrage, free markets, etc.. It is much more evidence based and less politics based magazine.

@MichaelDavis-mk4me 3 жыл бұрын

Most TV shows don't have 10 minutes to explain you why Trump is losing.

@zackcascio5652 3 жыл бұрын

@@MichaelDavis-mk4me I’d rather have a 10 minute segment giving me lessons on polls on why Trump is losing then a 2 minute session briefly explaining why Trump is losing and not educating me on how they work

@QuestionEverythingButWHY 3 жыл бұрын

“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.” ― Mark Twain

@farkasabel 3 жыл бұрын

Biden is politician since the 70s.

@ForumArcade 3 жыл бұрын

Don't believe everything you read on the internet. - Abraham Lincoln

@godwin4935 3 жыл бұрын

@@ForumArcade lol

@bobosborne1573 3 жыл бұрын

If people say they will vote trump they could be murdered etc FACT the far left are extremely dangerous group

@The123fiona 3 жыл бұрын

@@bobosborne1573 It's unclear how a thing that is only a potential could be a FACT (your emphasis). Surely anything that could happen, using that logic, could be equally considered a FACT. Like, say an underage Qanon-adherent youth murdering peaceful protesters. But no, that was not a potential FACT, that was an ACTUAL FACT. Here's a suggestion. If you're going to worry about potential dangers, find a better way of assessing them other than listening to zealots of either side. My view is that most of the of zealots are on the right, but that's just my view. You need to think more clearly where you think the truth is likely to lie. And that takes effort. Are you up to that?

@jasonsteinway1710 3 жыл бұрын

*Obama/Biden handled the Ebola virus, the Swine flu, the Republican Recession, Hurricane Sandy, and the Zika virus, while mr Trump said "I don't take responsibility" on 3/13/2020* -- *Just as he evaded serving in the military, mr Trump tries to evade responsibility for his failing to keep America safe*

@eland65 3 жыл бұрын

What's with "mr"...

@Africanknight88 3 жыл бұрын

No matter the cause. People, just get out and VOTE IN PERSON. Bring your ID. And make sure you’re off that day and bring your folding chair. If you can shop for groceries then you can vote 🗳.

@ammarally3055 3 жыл бұрын

Grocery shopping doesn't take 5 hours

@MyToranja 3 жыл бұрын

@@ammarally3055 more reasons to go out and vote. Voting shouldn't take hours.

@ammarally3055 3 жыл бұрын

@@MyToranja And yet it does

@TheManinBlack9054 3 жыл бұрын

Not in person, its dangerous and you can spread the virus.

@samueldesousadeabreu5591 3 жыл бұрын

@Randy Bobandy why can't he be both?

@bakersmileyface 3 жыл бұрын

It's rare I like one of these videos, but this guy sold it to me. The dude is straight unbiased facts

@misterfunnybones 3 жыл бұрын

If asked if you're a racist, most people will vehemently deny it, but not at the ballot box.

@caseysmith544 3 жыл бұрын

only ones I am racist too are the ones that get themselves in the USA on Welfare for life, or are going to be told to do so by parents on welfare for life. I wish it was the way Canada has its welfare set up, a lot less government waste and less of these now 3 and 4th generation welfare people.

@fattahrambe 3 жыл бұрын

We need more data-driven journalism

@agonistadenoche7806 3 жыл бұрын

We need more data-driven journalism x2

@agonistadenoche7806 3 жыл бұрын

@@Z.November It should, but society's too stubborn and bureaucracy complicated to implement it

@Clarke5409 3 жыл бұрын

Data means nothing nowadays. Data can be spun toward whatever the journalist’s worldview in my opinion. It’s not that simplistic.

@ChairmanRingo 3 жыл бұрын

@@Clarke5409 If a worldview can be backed up by data and empirical evidence that makes it more reliable than a worldview that can't, which unfortunately seems to be fairly popular these days.

@Ambigious 3 жыл бұрын

@@Clarke5409 Better than basing the ”facts” on feelings, like Fox and CNN

@FramesFTW 3 жыл бұрын

No matter the results of the election, we need Elliot Morris and Nate Silver to get together and talk about polling in this election and the future of polling.

@noodles4332 3 жыл бұрын

I have no idea how those guys still get paid...Their national numbers were okay but their state by state were waaaaaaaaay off. I had it at 309 Trump to HRC 229 Guess who was more correct? The experts with their fancy computers or me? I have it at 324 Trump to Biden's 214 this time around...Let's see who wins again.

@matinb449 3 жыл бұрын

@noodles Yeah probably not you

@badlydrawnturtle8484 3 жыл бұрын

@@noodles4332 So, if you lose this bet, will you come back and publicly apologize, or will you make up some nonsensical excuse as to why you weren't REALLY wrong? And no, declaring that you can't possibly lose before the results are in isn't a valid response. You don't get to play if you can't meet the ante.

@noodles4332 3 жыл бұрын

@@badlydrawnturtle8484 I'll come back and apologize...But I am 100% sure by what I've read on the poll taking that it is waaaaaaaay skewed on MULTIPLE National Polls....They NEVER fixed their methodology. Everyone including experts can have different opinions...But when you see multiple polls skewed on purpose it shows MANIPULATION not error. That tells me that the Media will blame the pollster, the pollster will blame a bad computer model because of the bad data because of bad questions and they'll all swear that they have no idea how such a large error could be made AGAIN. They're lying.

@badlydrawnturtle8484 3 жыл бұрын

@@noodles4332 "But when you see multiple polls skewed on purpose" Your evidence that they are "skewed" so far appears to be that they disagree with your personal belief of what they should say. That's not rational, in case you're wondering. Your evidence that they're skewed "on purpose" is that if someone gets something wrong, it MUST be on purpose because honest mistakes don't exist. Compounded, you're on incredibly shaky intellectual ground.

@AjitB07 3 жыл бұрын

Problem with polls are, people are not admitting they're voting for trump

@SuperNovaJinckUFO 3 жыл бұрын

If you're ashamed to be voting for someone, that should tell you something

@yassershkeir2340 3 жыл бұрын

@@SuperNovaJinckUFO well if that someone has no manners, voting for him does tell something. People should be ashamed for voting for someone like Trump.

@mrwilson.1 3 жыл бұрын

Because of backlash from liberals. The masses remain mostly silent and let the voting do the taking. Trump will most likely win, irrespective of the polls...

@NomadicCreatorMY 3 жыл бұрын

A lot of people kinda regret voting for Trump so... no surprise there. Which is why I doubt everyone who said Trump would win. A reminder that Trump lost the popular vite already. It doesn't take a lot to make him lose.

@benwhitnell 3 жыл бұрын

The biggest problem to me is that most people don’t understand odds and models.

@LeilaLandOfficial 3 жыл бұрын

Who else is here on election night? Desperate that "Biden's Robust Lead" will be true...

@dohyawatchin2598 3 жыл бұрын

They are not coming for me, they are coming for you! I’m just standing in their way. ~Donald J Trump

@abhijeetpareek9926 3 жыл бұрын

Who are they?

@dohyawatchin2598 3 жыл бұрын

@@abhijeetpareek9926 What is Jewish bolshivism?

@grjoshiutube 3 жыл бұрын

Every pertinent question covered, wonderfully covered and answered!

@QuestionEverythingButWHY 3 жыл бұрын

"Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn't! " --Anonymous

@chocomilo1628 3 жыл бұрын

Yeah the one who said that is in year 1600 lol. Forecasting with data =/= without data. Learn statistic science please

@5ynthesizerpatel 3 жыл бұрын

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!” Niels Bohr

@idontlikeyouyo 3 жыл бұрын

It seems like since 2016 most people don't understand how statistics work. Like in the stock market, if there is a future event that has a 75% of X happening and 15% Y happening; then the current price is adjusted based on the information given. Meaning if the unlikely event does happen, such as the Y event of 15% chance, then the stock price drops(or strikes up depending) rapidly and these things happen everyday in the markets that contain thousands and thousands of companies. When it happened in an election once, people lost their minds about all data and say it's fake news and stuff these days.

@stevec.1319 3 жыл бұрын

wonder if the polling system includes how many people registered to a party for the 1st time.

@artbylisawoohouse 3 жыл бұрын

I thank you for this perspective. You are exactly right about young voter's because my son moved for a job and he works long hours. He cares about eliminating corruption, but his 50-56 hour work week leaves him exhausted. These young people get discouraged working long hours and being underpaid. America needs better leadership.

@ChairmanRingo 3 жыл бұрын

@n. clark Really sorry but Trump is very unlikely to win again, don't start crying and say "Not my president!" if Biden wins

@JBEMultimediamadrid 3 жыл бұрын

@Mistiry and 56 % still feel better today than in the Obama years...

@ChairmanRingo 3 жыл бұрын

@Bob Bobbertson well I never did that in the first place, but I’m just saying you guys seem very confident of winning I hope you don’t get upset if the most likely outcome occurs

@ChairmanRingo 3 жыл бұрын

@Bob Bobbertson Well he does have a rather high strong approval rating true, what you are neglecting is that he has an even higher strong disapproval rating. More people love Trump than they love Biden, but much more people hate Trump than they hate Biden. That's reflected in all the polls, including Rasmussen, and it's why he's very unlikely to win a second term.

@ChairmanRingo 3 жыл бұрын

@Bob Bobbertson Did they have strong disapproval ratings 5 points higher because I suspect that makes it very hard to win an election. 40% will vote for Trump no matter what, and 45% will vote against him no matter what so that leaves 15% who will decide the election, but the odds start out stacked against him. I will continually check up to the election, and if/when what the polls are saying changes I will change my view. "When everyone can stop giving their patrons the numbers they want." What you mean by that?

@abcdLeeXY 3 жыл бұрын

I hear it on the television everyday “your vote matter” No, it depends where you are voting from and for. In a true democracy every vote should matter but nope America implement the electoral college system to make certain demographic less impactful with their vote.

@alcarbo8613 3 жыл бұрын

So I guess The UK,Canada,Australia,India,Japan, Germany,etc all aren’t True Democracy’s Also Swing States Change solid Blue/Red States can become Swing States and vice versa

@nudirt1274 3 жыл бұрын

Only certain states deciding the fate of a nations office is very uneven and injust ro smaller states. Even during execution and resource distribution. Pleb From a country with plain old democracy.

@confusedflourbeetle4734 3 жыл бұрын

@@alcarbo8613 I think their point is that different states have different ratios between eligible voters and electoral college votes.

@A-M4 3 жыл бұрын

@Randy Bobandy Are you saying racism doesn't exist because there are successful Black people?

@xl2026 3 жыл бұрын

@@alcarbo8613 educate yourself - those countries don’t use the electoral college

@heliheli6808 3 жыл бұрын

Most unbiased media I have seen

@SabrinaStronger 3 жыл бұрын

Excellently Informative , Thank You .

@bluegreenOD 3 жыл бұрын

i have shared this analysis with friends and family as it is so balanced, clear and calm

@craigkeller9851 3 жыл бұрын

Great information, well communicated.

@CodeEmporium 3 жыл бұрын

Follow up to the first question : What are we doing different to ensure that Trump support in the polls is not underestimated? Is it conducting the polls as we did in 2016, and then adding like a 5% for Trump support? Or is are we doing something more intelligent behind the scenes?

@howardj.anguilar2376 3 жыл бұрын

The U.S. elections seems to have had a positive effect of risk sentiment, driving traders away big time from the U.S. dollar. Appreciations to Anmol Singh NYSE day trader.

@sangriabiscus2856 3 жыл бұрын

A lot of New Yorkers retired to Florida.

@yunanqiu7200 3 жыл бұрын

I can imagine the big brains behind the Economist magazine cover but not the Economist videos.

@CodeEmporium 3 жыл бұрын

Follow up to the question at 7:38 . Are you mentioning we wait till Florida cast 95% since its counting is done relatively earlier? Florida should not alone be the deciding factor for Biden/Trump to win the election on track right? Not like the mid west or Arizona votes depending on how Florida turns out

@alamm.n.1723 3 жыл бұрын

Growth achieved by hard working, unlike in US, hard talking..

@benjaminscholle5321 3 жыл бұрын

For the love of yourself and country go vote. I am not endorsing a candidate but go vote people.

@supermario2201 3 жыл бұрын

The only problem i have with Biden is, that he might travel somewhere, then forget where he is and why he went there.

@pixelated_dinosaur 3 жыл бұрын

You're right, but the ballot system is a deviation from the initial formula, which claimed that permafrost thawing is related with the production of vanilla. I'm getting tired of explaining this over and over again.

@user-hj9xv4gp5e 3 жыл бұрын

That’s not a mistake of the data, but of the interpretation.

@khaiduayush378 3 жыл бұрын

He has never heard of 'e-book'.

@ChrisHodgsonCorben-Dallas 3 жыл бұрын

The Economist is a quality publication, it’s a shame we have to struggle through 3 adverts for absolute garbage to get through this content

@Grant80 3 жыл бұрын

If Biden wins then the media have played its part. Massive Biden coverup wake up Ppl

@alcarbo8613 3 жыл бұрын

Well there “better Polling” had a chance to be right in 2018 however instead they where wrong in The Florida Gubernatorial Election Florida Senate Election Ohio Gubernatorial Election Arizona Senate Election etc.

@rickiex 3 жыл бұрын

Statistics is just probability, not knowing the future 🤦🤦

@liem11 3 жыл бұрын

It's all probability. If anyone tells you that it's 100% accurate you know they are lying.

@Timcoe4 3 жыл бұрын

This guy is great

@skiddrowe9104 3 жыл бұрын

YOU HAVE A CHOICE LIBERTY& FREEDOM OR DEM-SOCIALIST-MARXIST-COMMUNISM-------------VOTE IN PERSON-TRUMP-PENCE- RED WAVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@TheOlgakon 3 жыл бұрын

Putting a lot of faith and hope in your predictions, but still staying cautions in case it will turns out different again....

@kalniyah4536 3 жыл бұрын

Economist needs to pay Elliot soon so he can get some bookshelves.

@leevancleef553 3 жыл бұрын

VOTE!

@MobileConnects 3 жыл бұрын

Once again the predictions weren't correct. Not only the Presidential race but the same is also true for Senate. I hope we come to know why it was that wrong specially in Swing States!

@johnmalone407 3 жыл бұрын

Great presentation of polling information.

@toddboothbee1361 3 жыл бұрын

The Electoral College: a huge flaw?

@caseysmith544 3 жыл бұрын

At least the way it is done in 95% of the states, make them all be 100% based on popular state vote.

@javierjp8549 3 жыл бұрын

Mans got all those books and I haven't read a book since I was 14

@wildandwonderful7069 3 жыл бұрын

WHERE IS THE METHODOLOGY?? Please link the formula otherwise im sorry to say it is useless assertion.

@wildandwonderful7069 3 жыл бұрын

@William Deadlock Perfect logic! If someone supports Trump I must be non-objective?

@TheGeorgeD13 3 жыл бұрын

It is linked.

@bijiabraham7959 3 жыл бұрын

Make America Great Again

@Setsero93 3 жыл бұрын

Lol I told polls I'd vote for Biden, but mailed in my vote for Trump.

@davidthewhale7556 3 жыл бұрын

But why. That makes trump look bad and makes some trump supporters lose faith and not bother voting, your hurting your candidate

@Setsero93 3 жыл бұрын

@@davidthewhale7556 I'm just trolling bud; I say who I'm voting for.

@rpmnh 3 жыл бұрын

Sorry, but I doubt it...

@karlawatson4985 3 жыл бұрын

😂

@gavin2915 3 жыл бұрын

Please just accept the election results people. If my preferred candidate loses, I will accept the results. Please do the same.

@caseysmith544 3 жыл бұрын

I will as long as it is true no beyond suppression happens where more then 20% of a particular race could not vote, and true that they tried to vote.

@DezCP3 3 жыл бұрын

Why have you turned off the comments on your newest video??? Selecting when people can comment just promotes distrust

@arifibrahimov2051 3 жыл бұрын

"Florida is going blue" - are you on drugs, mate?

@jeffreym68 3 жыл бұрын

What do the models suggest about the predictive capacity of variables (unmeasured) such as might be a result of early voting? I'd love to see what variables are accounting for the most variance in these systems.

@jessicaonymous4352 3 жыл бұрын

Thank you, very informative!

@Mckowski77 3 жыл бұрын

So glad you were able to find another totally unbiased expert 😐

@jacobbickerstaffe6075 3 жыл бұрын

I’m so glad that Trump is a totally stable genius

@realgone6937 3 жыл бұрын

Very informative. Thank you very much

@KindredKunoichi 3 жыл бұрын

GR8 BARR1NGTON DECLARATION

@Peter_Scheen 3 жыл бұрын

To accept people to be cannon fodder? Who is going to pay for you hospital bill?

@nord.studios 3 жыл бұрын

@@Peter_Scheen considering the WHO confirmed the under 70’s death rate at 0.05% a few days ago, something tells me it’s very unlikely she’s gonna need the hospital.

@Peter_Scheen 3 жыл бұрын

@@nord.studios Death rate and hospital two different things. She could end up in hospital, lots of people do. And Trump is not going to pick up the bill.

@nord.studios 3 жыл бұрын

@@Peter_Scheen going off most estimates, only 0.03% of those under 70 of the average country have been to hospital for covid. So yeah I’d say there’s a slight chance she won’t be.

@Peter_Scheen 3 жыл бұрын

@Bob Bobbertson Stop trolling.

@insidejobsince1848 3 жыл бұрын

Run as an independent, not a Republican, then i will consider voting for you.

@sko1beer 3 жыл бұрын

if trump saw this he could probably pull it off a peaceful president who dont start wars first one in 40 years

@lonesaiyan27 3 жыл бұрын

When was the last time an independent candidate won any office of note? Genuinely asking

@sko1beer 3 жыл бұрын

@Nathaniel Tesfaye can we stick to facts . Obama started 5 wars and got a noble peace prize

@sko1beer 3 жыл бұрын

@Nathaniel Tesfaye Obama got a noble peace prize for being the first black president so the first white person who gets world record in ping pong ball sould get a noble peace prize? in a notoriously known racist country

@sko1beer 3 жыл бұрын

@Nathaniel Tesfaye so u don’t think it’s racist to give him a noble just because of his skin colour? Is Prince Harry’s wife getting one for joining the royal family?

@hhumca 3 жыл бұрын

Vote Blue and take a friend as well.

@nromk 3 жыл бұрын

Opinion polls are based on predictability, not randomness, the electoral college is random.

@DanBurgaud 3 жыл бұрын

Trump has a Trump Card equivalent to a +10 points. Polls fail to consider this..

@ansumanadoumbia3196 3 жыл бұрын

Politicians do NOT Trump Does

@monaedwards8688 3 жыл бұрын

I like this guy. Very informative.

@jeanpeters2748 3 жыл бұрын

Fire Trump --> Vote.... Blue voter turnout must be 🇺🇸 "TOO BIG TO RIG" 🇺🇸 -- Glenn Kirschner

@swfcstephx 3 жыл бұрын

Will America vote in the proven conman Biden, ?? He's as bent as a nine Bob note FACT

@lianseldou 3 жыл бұрын

Bye bye 2020. Corona & Trump be gone hopefully 👍🙏💐

@leevancleef553 3 жыл бұрын

A colleague suggested to me the other day, we should do a 2020_v2 and bin this one.

@fuckman165 3 жыл бұрын

Vote in person, Trump 2020

@pspicer777 3 жыл бұрын

Methodological explanation? Dude, it is way too early in the morning for actual thinking.

@vetal50001 3 жыл бұрын

Trump 2020

@thek4232 3 жыл бұрын

"Violence and unrest"? You meant to say "peaceful protests"

@chiakinanami7101 3 жыл бұрын

glad that the predicition model was correct.

@daisywu9941 3 жыл бұрын

Since when the economist became so lefty?

@stephanarizona9094 3 жыл бұрын

TRUMP 2020 Landslide!

@SandyERA4all 3 жыл бұрын

Sorry, look at the poll numbers for trump

@coachhbosoccer 3 жыл бұрын

Stop the Gadamm predictions it really confused things and after 2016 I see no benefit

@richardlucas4134 3 жыл бұрын

Very lucid presentation !!!

@jeffreym68 3 жыл бұрын

Why do we spend so much time in the news and online on election prediction? Serious question. If it's to sway voting, it seems inappropriate. Pure knowledge? Ok, but negative impact seems more likely than positive. Whom does this enormous expenditure of time, money, and brainpower benefit?

@josephsong5011 3 жыл бұрын

Very well explained

@FranciscoRodriguez-lz9gh 3 жыл бұрын

In the first 2 weeks we saw 3 seperate accounts of dumping votes , it seems to happen more this time I suppose which is bad

@adiiyer 3 жыл бұрын

How are the polls actually carried out? Are they online surveys or telephone calls? I am assuming 1-2-1 on the ground sampling is curtailed by the pandemic. If it is online or via mobile ads lets say is it fair to assume the blue collar worker who support Trump aren't really on their cell fones all day and busy doing hands on jobs. Could this be a potential error in the polling.

@tabb5818 3 жыл бұрын

Very insightful thank you Elliott. I think you need some more books in the background tho.

@mtherload 3 жыл бұрын

i have been knocked back by NY state board of elections; i live overseas..i've had no help at all

@warrenb7246 3 жыл бұрын

Finally .... facts as opposed to political bias

@djp1234 3 жыл бұрын

Who cares about the polls if we don't get to pick our president. We're not even a democracy.

@arkfreebird2672 3 жыл бұрын

We are a Republic.

@domp2729 3 жыл бұрын

Yeah you don’t want a direct democracy, it’s one of the worst ways to make decisions on a large scale

@djp1234 3 жыл бұрын

@@domp2729 it would have prevented the dumpster fire we have in the White House right now

@Dennnis10B 3 жыл бұрын

Either way...win or loose...America will shake to it's core...

@Leugim010 3 жыл бұрын

Does Elliott have an Onlyfans? Asking for a friend

@gabrielsoares3319 3 жыл бұрын

His intelligence is the sexiest thing i have seen in 2020 so far

@anttikalpio4577 3 жыл бұрын

You want to see his algorithm uncovered don’t you? 😂

@SteveZo 3 жыл бұрын

Someone get this millennial journalist a bookshelf

@datguyniels2518 3 жыл бұрын

0:00 what's the music ? :o

@crushitwithkris 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks!

@anttikalpio4577 3 жыл бұрын

Great video thanks!

@Nik-wo7hk 3 жыл бұрын

Why this guy got so many books

@jacobbickerstaffe6075 3 жыл бұрын

@Anthony Goedhart You might want to introduce Trump to it

@tauratrihon1467 3 жыл бұрын

@@jacobbickerstaffe6075 The guy who held the Bible downwards?

@jacobbickerstaffe6075 3 жыл бұрын

@@tauratrihon1467 “Did you say the word SMART?”

@tauratrihon1467 3 жыл бұрын

@@jacobbickerstaffe6075 In this context I am just not able to.

@amnrob101 3 жыл бұрын

I thought Wisconsin was the state to watch 🤷🏾‍♂️

@nias2631 3 жыл бұрын

I am wondering if the Florida senior citizen population makes FL a more impactful measure. Seniors tend to vote the most, plus FL seems to lean red. So if that were to change it could say a lot about what the rest of the senior population's voting behavior.

@SMunro 3 жыл бұрын

The thumbnail graph shows mirror trends, when other parties should be picking up the slack.

@highdesert9 3 жыл бұрын

You forgot to factor in the Democrats are a lot more fearful of waiting in line and for that reason will stay home

@tonikpun9955 3 жыл бұрын

Look, the future is not always the difference of yesterday and today. You just can't quantify the future. Sure you can run some kind of statistical models such as ARIMA, GARCH, and Monte Carlo, but they are full of assumptions and limitations. All in all, you are simply just predicting the future on the basis of subjectivity and qualitative intution.