Federal Reserve's Rate Hikes Are Not Over (Here's Why) | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Рет қаралды 39,202

Күн бұрын

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): macrohive.com/hive-exclusives...
Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-...
--
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter / fedguy12
Follow Macro Hive on Twitter / macro_hive
Follow Jack on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_
--
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
--
To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at macrohive.com/become-a-member.... Offer ends February 20, 2023.
--
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:05 February Fed Meeting Debrief
04:28 The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
07:11 Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
01:03 Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
15:46 Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
28:06 Curve Ad
29:10 Why Is Inflation Falling?
36:57 Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
46:34 The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
57:40 Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
01:07:17 Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
01:10:40 How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
01:14:45 Higher For Longer!
--
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Пікірлер: 191

@DeFi-Macrodosing Жыл бұрын

Joseph, what a great and kind introduction to Dominique. Classy.

@theonlyconstantischange123 Жыл бұрын

"HAHAAAA JACK! You're trying to trap me" 😂 Love Dominique and I learn a ton watching her on macro hive each week

@GenXstacker Жыл бұрын

I see Joseph, I click and prepare to learn.

@Xmj202 Жыл бұрын

When fed guy speaks I listen 👂

@Mathematics.is.perfect Жыл бұрын

You guna need to because the other guest you can't understand 😅

@detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

@@Mathematics.is.perfect she’s clear for me.

@GenXstacker Жыл бұрын

So does EF Hutton.

@davidm1411 Жыл бұрын

Thank God. Someone who understands the Real Estate market.

@111sunder Жыл бұрын

“balance sheets can absorb these increases.” - yea, right up until the stock market crashes and wider unemployment rises (layoffs already starting).

@henrycrews9344 Жыл бұрын

Great to see Joseph back.

@moon3173 Жыл бұрын

takes so much mental energy to understand Dom...

@danielslavin00 Жыл бұрын

It’s because we’re used to tik tok logic

@jacquelinemassaro454 Жыл бұрын

I used captions

@ticker3132 Жыл бұрын

Excellent content. Keep up the great work ya'll.

@trapOrdoom Жыл бұрын

“There’s something for zeh howx, and something for zeh dowvz” Her accent is godlike.

@verryveggie Жыл бұрын

You are entranced? Just visit France! In each voice you will rejoice.

@mattanderson6672 Жыл бұрын

Thanks Guys!

@stoneyj1a1 Жыл бұрын

Nobody has paid their student loans in 3 years. Billions on goods, houses, services, cars, etc. And there is still tons of stimulus programs available. Eviction moratoriums are still in place in many cities. The stimulus train has never stopped yet

@edreeves121 Жыл бұрын

Superb. Thanks

@alanbartram3147 Жыл бұрын

Fascinating … brilliant !

@sghetrick Жыл бұрын

Great show

@Outsidereport Жыл бұрын

Great insights 👍

@Kid_Ikaris Жыл бұрын

Haven't started yet, but realizing this about to be when I listen to another set of intelligent bonafide experts tell me the countering to what the last set of intelligent bonafide experts told me. Looking forward to the day when economics becomes a more settled science. At this point we're in the early stages in the grand scheme of things.

@AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook Жыл бұрын

Loving this gal's accent -and commentary!

@yamomanemjazz Жыл бұрын

Reminds me of milder version of George m Robinsons thesis ' the fed has lost its reaction function " I'm not qualified to have an opinion. Great show

@gregorkokalj9326 Жыл бұрын

I think she is wrong. Does she know that the interest alone on debt for US is gonna be over 1T

@bosund7417 Жыл бұрын

I wanted to hear them address the ability to service debt with continued rising interest rates. I keep hear people say that the Fed can't keep raising rates because of the debt burden. People use the term 'Catch 22'. I don't think Joseph or Dominique commented on that point. Perhaps they don't believe it's a real issue?

@MountainManEconomist Жыл бұрын

I agree with most of what is mentioned... However I've recently been given credit with "ZERO" verification. This is very worrisome. I'm sure I'm not the only one and there are many who are in worse financial situations. Reminds me a lot of 07/08

@b.h.1205 Жыл бұрын

Just curious, what sort of credit product? BNPL, credit card, store credit...usually there's a verification in the background...that's co concerning for sure...

@MountainManEconomist Жыл бұрын

@@b.h.1205 credit card(s) and buying out a car lease.

@yamomanemjazz Жыл бұрын

@@b.h.1205 I don't know that guys situation but I am getting uptick in credit marketing as well.

@jaysz6924 Жыл бұрын

Great chat….. to be faded…

@detectiveofmoneypolitics Жыл бұрын

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this informative content cheers Frank

@dt-jy1ig Жыл бұрын

Lending standards in the latest surveys are being tightened at a near record pace. Loan demand in all consumer categories have dropped in the latest surveys with auto loan demand plummeting. The situation in bank lending is deteriorating rapidly as credit conditions are in flux to a greater degree than your commentary suggests Joseph

@mohamedelwakdy7048 Жыл бұрын

She is great

@detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

I express great displeasure and skepticism towards the entire concept of fractional reserve banking. Brigands and thieves. Off with their heads.

@Tendertroll1 Жыл бұрын

They are forgetting that a lot of business loans have variable rates which can be detrimental in the future

@detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

Non-supervisory workers are getting the wage increases so the increasing gap between median and average wages makes sense.

@maxg9680 Жыл бұрын

There is no debate about soft or hard landing after the Fed lets its foot off the brakes with persistent rate hikes. The savings of the working people are about to be depleted. To the consumer, persistent inflation, even at a "benign" 4-5% going forward, equates to bankruptcy. Like Larry Summers said, the economy is more and more resembling Will E. Coyote, as the rate hikes are clearly insufficient to turn back inflation, running at 5+% after a year of tightening.

@tc102167 Жыл бұрын

What about the fact that the CPI calc will be changing starting with the Feb 14 read for Jan. It will show steeper drops. If u can’t win the game u change the rules. The fed just moved the goal post!

@donniemoder1466 Жыл бұрын

Everyone talks Bout inflation going down but do not talk about the effects of inflation going up the last 2 years. Prices aren't going down, they just are going up slower.

@TM-fr7gh Жыл бұрын

Damn this woman is smart.

@marinawong9662 Жыл бұрын

People borrow money to make more money if the interest rate is low

@DrakeonDigital Жыл бұрын

How can a market be right or wrong lol. The market is the market

@seiyachan Жыл бұрын

high inflation (or any inflation) is not sustainable, so is zero interest (or very low) rates!

@Bs-Mervo Жыл бұрын

ANL22T, ETH, and more would be great.

@shanedavison7473 Жыл бұрын

Rich people are rolling in dough now but the working class is being crushed.

@jarirutanen8762 Жыл бұрын

It is all according to the plan: the USA has become a neofeudal state.

@JamesMullarneyIsAFraud Жыл бұрын

thus as it ever was. I used to be poor. Was horrible.

@togoni Жыл бұрын

So not correct. This communist ideas have no future.

@newt13spacerider7 Жыл бұрын

Please tell me the name of the book & author on 'Central Banking" thank you kindly n. I found it very Interesting. Why is the crypto industry allowing 'Circle to pollute it with its centralization especially since it can freeze large amounts of its coins with the flick of a switch? Someone asked it to demonstrate that & they did. Is that not 1 of the things we all fear about government CBDCs. Plus since a lot of their funding is coming from the US Fed, ally governments, IMF Central Banks & WEF. Why is the industry not talking about this? If they are not careful Circle could end up owning most of it & DEFI will no longer be DEFI since it'll be controlled by the Middle Men!

@davidcollins8150 Жыл бұрын

itzzzzzzzz all in zeee data - could not resist

@yeswecan4312 Жыл бұрын

Or, they could cook the books on both sides of the Philips curve. Change how you account for employment. I mean 573,000 jobs created in one month with 500,000 added due to “demographic changes”. Also, the BLS has re-indexed CPI to a single year (2021) when inflation was already high, instead of two years. Watch reported CPI come down in the next CPI readout. Pass the punch bowl around.

@boombamm2457 Жыл бұрын

24:40 meanwhile, dollar getting stronger today

@First_Principals Жыл бұрын

She should debate Jeffrey Snydner from Eurodollar University.

@kedy2898 Жыл бұрын

BUY THE *ANL22T* AND HOLD THE LINE BOYS.

@itechfive240 Жыл бұрын

I thought that was a man. Wang you know inflation is not coming down in 23 and even the fattest dove Daly said she knows the rate needs to be 5% in 23 and likely to go higher in 24. This market can't even handle 4%

@veitastic6866 Жыл бұрын

It seems like the bots have taking over the comment section. Too bad, i really enjoyed reading them.

@-Blick182- Жыл бұрын

The guest said "uuuhhhhh" way too much I could not finish the episode

@DragonBallFan685 Жыл бұрын

Can ANL22T be staked on Ledger?

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

@MattCRHughes Жыл бұрын

Jeff Snider needs to be invited back to respond.

@WallaceRoseVincent Жыл бұрын

Where is Jeff Snider when you need him? I'd like to hear his reaction to this video. Jeff Snider and Emil Kowalski vs Dominique and Joseph would be a great slug fest!

@trapOrdoom Жыл бұрын

Agreed. Jeff comes off as a know-it-all which is hard to listen to sometimes, but I’d love to hear him debate his ideas against someone just as smart.

@johnnyairport Жыл бұрын

Emil bounced when Jeff brought in Steve Van Meter and for good reason.

@anonymousAJ Жыл бұрын

I'd watch a roundtable with Jeff Snider, Joseph Wang, Tom Luongo and Bret Johnson

@detrockcity3 Жыл бұрын

@@anonymousAJ no doubt. where are the debates?!? bring it on.

@norvikvoskanian4294 Жыл бұрын

Would be a great debate but the timing of these needs to be discussed. They can all be right on different timescales and magnitudes

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

ANL22T will do X2 maybe 3 max, you know it bro

@aslanultra.1905 Жыл бұрын

I'm DCAing in ANL22T as well. ETH heavier DCA and ALGO. I'm taking your advice and starting Google tomorrow with a 50 dollar purchase and continuing Microsoft and Apple. VTI and VOO on another app and longterm portfolio. Here we go family!

@gringadoor5385 Жыл бұрын

She sounds like an end boss from Assassin's Creed.

@keremcelik2727 Жыл бұрын

Excellent content. I used the last dip to stock up, buying ANL22T now its cheap, can't miss the presale.

@drphilipk Жыл бұрын

We can run inflation hotter. 2% is a made up target by some NZ central banker. We will still be rational at 3-4%. Singapore had been running core at 5% for decades and kept its workers salaries blindingly higher. Everybody there now earns more than Americans across the board. How did they do this? They kept their foreign labor and maids salaries below minimum standards. We have a more dynamic and educated work force, let's run it hotter.

@tunarmelikov7787 Жыл бұрын

Truly love your candidness, I DCAed today again for BTC ANL22T and ETH

@Ayloshmusum Жыл бұрын

Thank you for your research. I find your videos are well done. Will ANL22T hit 1000? Not sure but I hope so.

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

May never move from zero 🙈

@wtpwtp Жыл бұрын

Dominique is completely wrong that we have had the lowest employment rate in 50 years. So many people have lost their jobs due to the anti-science C-19 "vaccine" mandates who do not show up in the unemployment numbers!

@yunusbey_peynircilik Жыл бұрын

ANL22T oNLY Few hours OLD !! IMAGINE THE POTENTIAL

@BAY_AZRAIL Жыл бұрын

ANL22T, a pick with potential if they follow through!

@MinchlX Жыл бұрын

Hell yes $ ANL22T. Going to have a huge Q4

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

Hope you are right

@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын

Pretty surprised there was not 1 mention of the biggest driver of deflation over the past 20 years… technology. AI will decimate employment and demand.

@sagitta4291 Жыл бұрын

And demographics as well

@IT_Farhan Жыл бұрын

No, humans will just do non-menial jobs. 200 years of industrialization, automation, and computing and we are at 3.4% unemployment.

@personalfreedom2700 Жыл бұрын

@@IT_Farhan 5 million people leave the labor force and unemployment goes down… you need to dig deeper bro 😎

@nicholasstenta2470 Жыл бұрын

Powell seemed like he was on some downers, 100% serious, he seemed like he was on drugs. like homer in the simpsons x files episode. odd

@yusasavur Жыл бұрын

DCA ANL22T and chill. You'll be obnoxiously rich in less than 5 years. What's 5 years among friends?

@incawarrior5470 Жыл бұрын

Listen to Joseph if you want the same narrative that is discussed at CNBC.. just saying…

@klty7721 Жыл бұрын

Imagine missing the Amazon ANL22T on-going presale, HODL STRONG the public sale about to explode

@hamdikaya7272 Жыл бұрын

should you sell a little of ANL22T when you start to make a profit or just hold?

@mutantryeff Жыл бұрын

We need to fix the "IN GOD WE TRUST" on the Fiat Federal Reserve Note to be "IN GOLD WE TRUST"

@anonymousAJ Жыл бұрын

Let's amend the Constitution - add something in there that says "No state shall make any thing but gold or silver coin a tender in payment of debt"

@jetonkadrija3429 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for the update ANL22T is done right, and waiting is part of the process,

@sigmakeloglan Жыл бұрын

When I started the crypto process in 2017, there were few youtubers I trusted and you were one of them. This video confirms my impressions. As for me, I continue to DCA ANL22T.

@dolunayyyay5996 Жыл бұрын

Exciting times for Amazon’s *ANL22T* and it's community.

@yuki-pubgmobile6224 Жыл бұрын

You cant fight the ANL22T Fomo haha

@jacknaneek1681 Жыл бұрын

Classic. Bond market is wrong by Joe Wang is right. Bureaucrats always right

@S3N4.0 Жыл бұрын

We'll see about that. I don't mind to see the crash. I just hope I'll have a lot of USDT to buy more ANL22T live presale.

@kombinbenimisim8503 Жыл бұрын

Boys is it best to invest in *ANL22T* monthly or weekly? I'm thinking the fees will be higher if done weekly.

@35anil11 Жыл бұрын

Could you please talk about ANL22T it’s very strong and took off in short time thanks.

@Melih_oran12 Жыл бұрын

What's better holding into crash or being safe with ANL22T tell me

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

Holding into crash, obviously

@utku1399 Жыл бұрын

BRO WHY ARE YOU NOT TALKING ABOUT ANL22T

@darking2 Жыл бұрын

I've dumped all of my SOL- its toast for now. All converted to ANL22T and king BTC.

@iolaahmedova1788 Жыл бұрын

I already converted all my ETH to ANL22T, now I feel like moving all my BTC to ADA as well.

@JaaraGaming01 Жыл бұрын

So basically bearish on everything except amazon's ANL22T

@kdddozkxk5144 Жыл бұрын

AMZ to the moon

@ENES_LORD2 Жыл бұрын

Can't deny the fact that Amazons ANL22T is the strongest bet to bring power back to this industry after we suffered FTX, Celsius, Tera and so on. Sure if they fail it's done for good, but I don't see that the biggest tech company in the world would put everything at risk just for that.

@gulhekimoglu9133 Жыл бұрын

We will rise with ANL22T and Matic!!! Just HODL

@ahmetfratagca Жыл бұрын

I’m buying ANL22T on sale, waiting for BTC to maybe drop again before I add more. Hope to take some Eth profits by Sept proof of stake

@aydanaliyeva5171 Жыл бұрын

I'm still bullish on crypto. Buying the dip on great projects like Algorand and ANL22T 😎

@Relaxo17 Жыл бұрын

While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH or any top alt coin and playing defensive they are missing on quality projects that are about to be launched on CEX. For example ANL22T will hit mainstream soon, 10x-20x quite possible even during this bear market but only few people know about this.

@kelvinphua5066 Жыл бұрын

Uhhhhhhhhhhh

@project7702 Жыл бұрын

We'll be going to the bottom within 6-9 months. For now, DCA-ing bi-weekly with 21usd in ANL22T /BTC and monthly 21 in CRO.

@sjsjjdjdjdjdjsksk Жыл бұрын

Everyone waited for Amazon to create ANL22T and the time is ready

@DavidSmith-on7os Жыл бұрын

You should buy ETH and ANL22T if you care about your future

@sasdasd5380 Жыл бұрын

Not sure about BTC and ETH, but putting USDT in ANL22T for 10x makes sense.

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

Stick with BTC, safer

@ESMALO Жыл бұрын

I’ve heard Amazon is killing it with *ANL22T*

@AGENT-hy3pi Жыл бұрын

Thanks for deleting the spam bots, While I'm here though, ANL22T is the next moon shot for sure

@sevginindilirengi3131 Жыл бұрын

if ANL22T can grow organically like that they will dominate that industry

@messi_edits6 Жыл бұрын

ANL22T at less than $1. is like BTC at $100. When ANL22T finally blows it's gonna be epic.

@o7adam819 Жыл бұрын

Why is ANL22T doing so well? That is concerning to me.

@richardc861 Жыл бұрын

Me too, given it’s not real 😂

@sirzad36tv74 Жыл бұрын

WOW This may be the last time you can get ANL22T before it takes off 5,000%.

@mikerinaldi7170 Жыл бұрын

Holy spam!!!

@adamayaaa Жыл бұрын

I’ve been under since day one, (April 2021). When BTC was supposed to go to $100k, It didn’t. I’ve been buying and hodling ANL22T and i know my patience will pay off .