Fine start to the bank holiday weekend? 14 day UK weather forecast

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TheWeatherOutlook

TheWeatherOutlook

25 күн бұрын

TheWeatherOutlook's Brian Gaze takes a look at the 14 day UK weather prospects from May 21st.
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The forecast focuses on trends and probabilities during the second week rather than specifics.
Differences in the output from computer model is highlighted and the most probable outcomes are considered.
Uses high resolution graphics from a range of computer models to give an in-depth view.
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View the latest computer model forecast charts on TheWeatherOutlook here:
www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...

Пікірлер: 30
@stopthatluca
@stopthatluca 24 күн бұрын
Thanks for a great forecast Brian. White linen shirt a predictor for warm weather for next 14 days?
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
I think it was its turn (or at least that's what my wife told me)
@Hugh-nr5sx
@Hugh-nr5sx 24 күн бұрын
988mb seems quite low for late May.?
@chrisa9043
@chrisa9043 24 күн бұрын
I World agree with you.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Average pressure is about 1016mB in London in May.
@nicolasalexander408
@nicolasalexander408 18 күн бұрын
We're in a Grand Solar Minimum, Maunder, Daulton, Spora, Wolfe and this one the Eddy Minimum and it's cold, this is actually the smaller 11-22 year solar maximum (not grand solar, just normal solar) and it's cold, and eh have you seen all the rain and persistent low latitude auroras? We've had 20 years of low latitude auroras in 6 months.....and no one says a word about any of it....I wonder???
@DD-gt2cv
@DD-gt2cv 23 күн бұрын
Given much of what you presented is predictive models. Do they owners of the models compare predicted vs actual and update them? I am watching this on Wednesday 22nd. The predicted drift north of the rain is far slower than the model suggeted. Thanks.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Most of the models run a number of times each day and each instance is initiated with the latest data from airplanes, satellites, buoys etc. Therefore, the latest run does not attempt to "correct" errors which manifested in the previous one. However, over time biases in models are identified and the national weather centres who operate the models run upgrade programmes to try and improve them. This involves re-writing the computer code and making changes to the initialisation data. Usually the new version and the existing production one run in parallel and their accuracies are compared. Once the new version is shown to be consistently better it becomes the production version and the previous version is stopped. A specific example I can give is with the UKM model. The rain forecasts from it tend to over-forecast heavy rain and under-forecast light rain. A new version is being tested which attempts to address this. Another thing I often encounter is people will say, "Model X" is rubbish and "Model Y" is the one to look at. However, the differences between the main models aren't as big as a lot of people think. That's one of the reasons why I like to look at a number of them in the videos.
@JonVoid37
@JonVoid37 24 күн бұрын
Just to clarify warm is late teens to early 20s? Very warm is up to 30? Hot is anything over 30? Cheers.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
It's a good question and the UK Met provide formal definitions, e.g. heatwave conditions here www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/temperature/heatwave and the threshold is different in different parts of the UK. However, I like to think of it more subjectively and in terms of how people experience the weather. For example, quite warm is pleasant to be outside gardening. Warm may mean it is nice sitting in the garden. Hot is when many people start to feel uncomfortable etc.
@JonVoid37
@JonVoid37 22 күн бұрын
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO Thanks. I think folks misunderstood that I was asking and having a guess myself.
@mickthefishkett784
@mickthefishkett784 24 күн бұрын
get used to a lot more rain, bh weekend bit of sun sat morn then, you guessed it, more sodding rain.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Not the best outlook!
@Gary0557
@Gary0557 24 күн бұрын
What time do you call this Brian!? 🤣
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Lol!
@jamesjukebox2386
@jamesjukebox2386 24 күн бұрын
Tomorrow looking evil here yuk, but after this weekend and week can't complain, a mixed bag all around but warmer than normal, cheers Brian.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
I logged about 42mm of rain here in the Chilterns on Tuesday and Wednesday. Much brighter and warmer now.
@jamesjukebox2386
@jamesjukebox2386 22 күн бұрын
@@TheWeatherOutlookTWO wow, yeh just checked my bird bath and bang on 50 mm empty on Monday, incredible, cheers .
@chrzanik666
@chrzanik666 22 күн бұрын
Hosepipe ban around the corner 😂 it takes a single barbeque to shift the weather ☁️ to rain 🌧️☔ and strong winds 😢
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
After yesterday even I would struggle to believe that!
@islawilliams9572
@islawilliams9572 24 күн бұрын
nice one brian, thanks
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Very welcome
@chrishickmott7806
@chrishickmott7806 24 күн бұрын
Dont seem to have been warm pretty wet and cool a lot has been in s East
@alunjones3860
@alunjones3860 23 күн бұрын
Most of the temperature anomalies has been to the north and at night time.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
The TWO tracker (which is different to the UK Met Office CET) can be viewed here www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx It updates daily.
@chrisa9043
@chrisa9043 24 күн бұрын
A mixed bag of weather again.
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO
@TheWeatherOutlookTWO 22 күн бұрын
Yes. If anything, I think the signal is probably more mixed than when I filmed the video.
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