Independent analyst and bestselling author Lyn Alden kicks things off by describing how her background in engineering has influenced her macroeconomic investing style. She explains why she became so interested in macroeconomics in the first place and why 2017 was a turning point for the U.S. economy. Lyn also talks about fiscal dominance - or when fiscal deficits and federal debts are large enough that they start reducing a central bank's options. She puts this in the historical context of the 1970s and clarifies why inflation and interest rates are so complexly intertwined today.
Next, Lyn shares her outlook for the U.S. economy, including higher-than-baseline inflation for the foreseeable future and the country being in a similar situation to emerging markets. She discusses areas of the market where fiscal dominance has been appearing over the past few years, how the 2010s taught investors the wrong lesson, why the U.S. may experience the same economic troubles that Japan is facing right now, and the divergence between sectors going through recessions versus those that benefit from deficits.
Lastly, Lyn cautions listeners against using the traditional 60/40 portfolio in inflationary environments like today's and instead urges them to prioritize energy, precious metals, and hard assets. She also breaks down why she finds Latin America so attractive today (particularly Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico) and gives an in-depth explanation of how technology impacts money.
1:33 Deficits, Fiscal Dominance, Inflation
13:40 Economic Outlook, Sector Divergences
31:01 Energy, Latin America, Technology vs. Money