Forecasting (13): Holt's trend method forecast (double exponential smoothing)

Рет қаралды 68,870

4 жыл бұрын

→Forecasting course: researchhub.org/course/foreca...
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This video explains the concept of Holt's trend method for forecasting and demonstrates an example using excel.
#holtTrend #trend #forecasting #researchHUB #excel
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Published paper using forecasting methods:
(1) ARIMA and NNAR: www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/103
(2) ARIMA, VAR and ANN: doi.org/10.1057/s41278-020-00...
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Пікірлер: 26

@marcinkoczot2059 8 ай бұрын

Amazing video! Thank you

@jussirihto2351 4 жыл бұрын

very helpful again, cheers!

@RESEARCHHUB 4 жыл бұрын

Glad to hear it!

@thagoonlprusiriyodlpru4174 Жыл бұрын

thank you so much

@uwenolte8578 4 жыл бұрын

Thanks very much for the great example. The only one I had found alread. Just one point. I do not get it, why you input the value for the forecast yt+1 for period march 1996 into cell I7 instead of I6. By including the time parameter t+1 it is already clear, that the forecast is for the next period. Any you also want to make sure, that the forecast for march 1996 is made in february 1996. By putting it into a cell below, you waste one forecast at the end. Also I did use the software xlstat and it also did it one cell above.

@joonamikkola7800 4 жыл бұрын

Thanks for a great lecture!

@RESEARCHHUB 4 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@freedomqwaszx1872 2 жыл бұрын

it's easy to understand at the beginning, but starting from 11'15" I got lost. Why just simply put 1 to 6 to calculate future forecast, any explanation or theory behind that?

@pskaratzas6788 2 жыл бұрын

Great videos and very helpful! Which forecast methods do we use when we have seasonality??

@RESEARCHHUB 2 жыл бұрын

holt-winters, see kzfaq.info/get/bejne/q7J4gsmW3LGdp5c.html

@navketan1965 Жыл бұрын

Sir, If I am doing double exponential smoothing 5 period moving average with a software program--after 5 period exponential moving average is calculated say (X) does computer do second calculation with data X and (X-t1) (X-t2) (X-t3) (X-t4)- - - - forgive me,I went to college 50 years ago..(X-t1) is exponential moving average one period prior & so on.

@mewalkwithyou7475 3 жыл бұрын

thankyou but what if the last Tt's value is negative? I tried to forecast using holt but because of negative Tt's value my forecast value is decreasing.

@RESEARCHHUB 3 жыл бұрын

have you tried any other method for example HW or regression? maybe HT is not the most appropriate method for your data?

@likhitanalam8395 Ай бұрын

Thankyou for the explanation, what if forecasts comes negative and how could we verify whether this model for our data is correct or not?

@RESEARCHHUB Ай бұрын

What kind of data are you forecasting?

@abhinayrec 4 жыл бұрын

What is out sample forecast? Why July didn't use June values?

@RESEARCHHUB 4 жыл бұрын

Please see kzfaq.info/get/bejne/Z5x5ftZ90cCnnI0.html

@AjitKumarSahi 21 күн бұрын

can i get ppt used and excel sheet computation done

@arinasabilarosyida7115 Ай бұрын

so, how to forecast for the next period? example Jan 2000

@upamanyudixit8298 4 ай бұрын

Can you increase the Volume please.

@TerryBowl 9 ай бұрын

Acadamic grade!

@durgasthan 3 жыл бұрын

The problem with that is the Forecast Horizon calculation where to get Forecast for future you are just multiplying with forecast horizon number

@RESEARCHHUB 3 жыл бұрын

This is not a problem at all. There are different approaches to forecasting, and this is one of them.

@user-wh4ke3rd5u Жыл бұрын

@@RESEARCHHUB I have a question: In double exponential smoothing, the sum of alpha and beta must= one, or not necessary?

@manishv9816 Жыл бұрын

0:20 TT hahahahaa

@jamiesmandarin9792 2 жыл бұрын

This is confusing, more background knowledge please and use a typing instead of writing pen, can't read.