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Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing, MSE

  Рет қаралды 856,831

Joshua Emmanuel

Joshua Emmanuel

Күн бұрын

This video shows how to calculate exponential smoothing and the Mean Squared Error.
Finding the best α using Excel: • Exponential Smoothing ...

Пікірлер: 571
@ahmetkonak229
@ahmetkonak229 7 жыл бұрын
The lesson my teacher could not tell in 3 weeks made me understand in less than 5 minutes :)
@ayatelnabawy6696
@ayatelnabawy6696 5 жыл бұрын
Yes!!! Same here
@kairumagutu7297
@kairumagutu7297 4 жыл бұрын
May be the Institution had not paid him
@eminbaybarstimurstudent3802
@eminbaybarstimurstudent3802 3 жыл бұрын
Aynen öyle...
@jaymickgraphics7215
@jaymickgraphics7215 3 жыл бұрын
Lol Same here
@chilioil7686
@chilioil7686 2 жыл бұрын
same lool*
@bobrodi8401
@bobrodi8401 5 жыл бұрын
Joshua, I have to tell you buddy, you are one of the best instructors on the internet (or probably anywhere). I don't mind admitting that I am a 68 year old senior citizen who, for reasons not really known to me, decided to go back to school for my MBA after I retired. The last time I attended a college class before this undertaking, was in 1973 when I got my undergrad degree. It has been difficult and, because I don't have a lot of time to waste, I am taking 12 credit a semester. Quantitative Methods has been the biggest challenge for me so far but your videos have been a Godsend. I don't know if you are teaching at a university but, you damn sure should be. It's not only the way you explain things, but also the tone of your voice and the fact that you really sound happy explaining this stuff. Keep up the fantastic work and I will echo many other comments on your page here. You are the best !!
@vishwanathhegde178
@vishwanathhegde178 5 жыл бұрын
You are an inspiration to us all Bob. Never stop learning!
@aadilshaikh2499
@aadilshaikh2499 4 жыл бұрын
How's your MBA going ? :)
@danielright1515
@danielright1515 4 жыл бұрын
No you are the best!
@swaggyskye
@swaggyskye 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome! nearly in your 70s but still grinding and learning :)
@onkarabiledesigns
@onkarabiledesigns 2 жыл бұрын
@@danielright1515 That's what i said too
@daneal7874
@daneal7874 3 жыл бұрын
it has been 5 years since the video was created and it is still helping people! I just need to understand the logic behind calculating the error!!!
@mohammadkaddoura186
@mohammadkaddoura186 3 жыл бұрын
I watched this video 4 years ago in my Bachelor Decision Sciences class and now I'm back during my Master's work because the topic is explained here in 5 minutes better than my $230 textbook!
@scottconorton7310
@scottconorton7310 8 жыл бұрын
Thanks for smoothing that out for me :)
@antoniosantos421
@antoniosantos421 5 жыл бұрын
...exponentially*
@preludena9512
@preludena9512 4 жыл бұрын
I see what you did there... Lol
@lv5227
@lv5227 2 жыл бұрын
That was smooth
@twixter0
@twixter0 2 жыл бұрын
literally said smooth and didnt realize it
@GoldenGod69
@GoldenGod69 7 күн бұрын
What a zinger
@nawafalrasheed109
@nawafalrasheed109 4 жыл бұрын
LOL. My professor kept talking for more than an hour and I could not understand. I came here and understood what ES is in less than 5 minutes. THANKS, A LOT!
@56darren
@56darren 2 жыл бұрын
This dude is a 🐐 i learned more in this video than 2 weeks of my teacher trying to explain this to me
@rubangeorge7
@rubangeorge7 5 жыл бұрын
Am I the only one hearing him say fuckass when he actually said forecast
@srinivaskandru5034
@srinivaskandru5034 3 жыл бұрын
Who said you are the only one..? I am also living on the same earth, watching the same video, and was it by the same word, rewinded the video many times like you..while I am drinking my Darjeeling tea from India.
@arijeetboni6922
@arijeetboni6922 3 жыл бұрын
same
@lalosalamanca731
@lalosalamanca731 Жыл бұрын
Me to bro 😂😂😂
@rajarshipathak6186
@rajarshipathak6186 Жыл бұрын
No you are not the only one man...I also seemed to hear fuckass first time.Then I realised it's forecast.
@user-et7jy7bu3j
@user-et7jy7bu3j 9 ай бұрын
😂😂😂😂
@lykaballesteros9812
@lykaballesteros9812 3 жыл бұрын
spent at least 30 mins understanding and researching about how to do this and you just explained it so easily in less than 5 mins.
@eriklekuonaoficial5895
@eriklekuonaoficial5895 Жыл бұрын
I wish teachers would take an example of you. Amazing and simply put explanation.
@maddycox1821
@maddycox1821 6 жыл бұрын
Thank you soooo much for making these problems so much more simpler to solve. I tried watching many videos, tried step by step practice problems, and even asked tutors for help but none of these are effective as your teaching method!! Cheers!!
@manuelaizunwa
@manuelaizunwa 4 жыл бұрын
I just want to say thank you again, it beats me that there is a straightforward way of doing this, yet we were taught the more cumbersome one. God bless you!
@claudiaramos5860
@claudiaramos5860 9 жыл бұрын
Fast, simple, and super useful. This is a homework saver, thank you.
@eamonnca1
@eamonnca1 4 жыл бұрын
I made the mistake of trying to watch my professor's online lecture over and over again for a week. I wish I'd come here sooner, this cleared it up in 5 minutes!
@thaugh10
@thaugh10 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks, Joshua. This video was God-sent. You are a great and effective teacher... even five years later! God bless you always.
@enoshsubba5875
@enoshsubba5875 7 жыл бұрын
This Dude deserves a medal..!!! Thanks man that really helped a Lot
@Zxpromedia
@Zxpromedia 5 жыл бұрын
Your explanation of this subject far exceeds that of the textbook I am using for my class. Thank you for taking the time to produce this exceptional video.
@sonalipragji1723
@sonalipragji1723 5 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for making these videos they were extremely helpful!!! You were able to teach me in 5 minutes what my professor couldn't teach me in a month!!!
@luvv_4t
@luvv_4t 2 жыл бұрын
watched the first lecture from my professor today and couldn't grasp the concept completely. After watching your video I feel like an expert now :)
@simplyspeakingonair5773
@simplyspeakingonair5773 6 жыл бұрын
Your explanation is so straight forward and simple to understand. Thank you for this.
@MrCdhadwal
@MrCdhadwal 6 жыл бұрын
man you are the best ! your videos helped me a lot ! its my stats exam tomorrow and i knew nothing about forecasting, correlation and hypothesis and ur the only one who has good videos here ! thanks alot !
@ademolaorolu5930
@ademolaorolu5930 7 жыл бұрын
Short, precisive, insightful and straight to the point. Thank you Joshua
@MegaDivalious
@MegaDivalious 2 ай бұрын
Wow, you made this exponentially easier to understand. Thank you, Professor!
@joshemman
@joshemman 2 ай бұрын
You're very welcome, Nmachi!
@SIW808
@SIW808 Жыл бұрын
Believe it or not but my lecturer made this sound like rocket science. Thank you for making an easy to understand video.
@joehafez7936
@joehafez7936 3 жыл бұрын
You saved my life i am so grateful. i failed this course and your videos helped pass THANK YOU
@bishakhabanik7624
@bishakhabanik7624 5 жыл бұрын
Your teaching techniques are amazing...It is extremely helpful
@immaculatechelangat2729
@immaculatechelangat2729 Жыл бұрын
Thank you. This is very clear and elaborate! Definitely going to ACE this!
@giulianotodaro2063
@giulianotodaro2063 3 жыл бұрын
i dont know how ur 5 minute explanation was better than the 2 lectures i had for this
@sherrymahabir5034
@sherrymahabir5034 8 жыл бұрын
Mr. Emmanuel, your videos are so very helpful. Very understandable, and to the point. Thank You!
@asimraza8831
@asimraza8831 2 жыл бұрын
Your method is great and quite easy. I ever seen many videos but your method of explanation is awosome..
@joshemman
@joshemman 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot 😊
@mariayoung7781
@mariayoung7781 8 жыл бұрын
Super super helpful, credits go to you if I pass my exam in a few weeks!! Quick and efficient video, thank you!
@Traviomaster
@Traviomaster 6 жыл бұрын
more like in two hours
@jatoudrammeh7470
@jatoudrammeh7470 5 жыл бұрын
Time series model
@yassirelmaghraoui6257
@yassirelmaghraoui6257 5 жыл бұрын
Roy Plays have some respect & stfu
@calebgodard4554
@calebgodard4554 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! So simple... I understood this before but forgot about it and your video was very helpful
@CleverSmart123
@CleverSmart123 11 ай бұрын
Excellent lesson, finally got something after so many weeks. You are a great teacher
@joshemman
@joshemman 11 ай бұрын
Glad to hear. 😀
@omercak6719
@omercak6719 2 жыл бұрын
This is the best and most useful and most clear video I ever watched on KZfaq. Thank you! really
@vince7573
@vince7573 2 жыл бұрын
You're indeed a nice tutor, heartly congrats from JKUAT ,Kenya🔥💯
@joshemman
@joshemman 2 жыл бұрын
Nice to get a shout-out from Kenya. Thanks, Vince.
@vince7573
@vince7573 2 жыл бұрын
@@joshemman Your impact is felt all over the world🔥💯
@jacobscott1274
@jacobscott1274 4 жыл бұрын
I would rather my school pays you than my lousy professor, you have taught me more in 15 minutes (3 videos) than my teacher could in two 70 minute classes
@ellenb.1670
@ellenb.1670 3 жыл бұрын
You explained this with so much clarity . I got it !!!😊😊You are awesome.
@maryamaishanyc7449
@maryamaishanyc7449 4 жыл бұрын
👏👏👏well done! I always look for your videos when my professor gives me any tasks🌹 clear, bold, and easy to understand as usual 🙏
@savannahmower4074
@savannahmower4074 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for your help! Spent an hour and a half lecture on this not understanding what you taught me in 5 mins.
@mp0807
@mp0807 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! Thank you! I am currently struggling in an MBA Business Analytics class and this video has helped me so much. Our professor just reads right from the text book and does not walk through any examples.
@lovemuch5129
@lovemuch5129 7 жыл бұрын
Hi Joshua, I'm here to thank you so much for your special video, if it wasn't for your video I would fail my Operation Management, class. You make operation management course feel easy, I can assure you, I don't understand my professor but your video was my savior through this class. Oh well, I pass with B+ and I give you all credit for that. Thank you so much.
@joshemman
@joshemman 7 жыл бұрын
Thanks for leaving the note. I'm glad it helps.
@jeanettejeffcott4518
@jeanettejeffcott4518 3 жыл бұрын
Excellent! Thank you. Well described and easy to understand. Saved me lots of time.
@meghachovatiya1834
@meghachovatiya1834 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot. It helped me understand what exactly is exponential smoothing that tableau must have used for forecasting. I was searching for its answer for quite some time and found it here.
@MeleMelelo
@MeleMelelo Ай бұрын
Here in 2024! Thanks for sharing such as great content.
@sterlingjones4723
@sterlingjones4723 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much, I can only learn this stuff by your videos! Thank you for making these videos, some people really need this.
@GDveertje
@GDveertje 8 жыл бұрын
Wow this is made my homework so much easier! Thank you very much for your clear explanation!
@aillenadlaon3818
@aillenadlaon3818 4 жыл бұрын
This is very helpful in my research work. The long process has been described and explained accordingly.
@peterajoku4602
@peterajoku4602 4 жыл бұрын
wAOOOOOOO. Jashua. God bless you sir. You have made it so simple......U are the best teacher in the world sir .God bless you.
@ayoubbelkadi3992
@ayoubbelkadi3992 3 жыл бұрын
Straight to the point and crystal clear! Wish he was my tutor!
@Skechy3603
@Skechy3603 6 жыл бұрын
ive been skipping class cause prof. is a snore, thanks to you I may actually enjoy the class!
@danieljimenez5595
@danieljimenez5595 5 жыл бұрын
This among your other videos are excellent! I actually taught myself something thanks to you.
@14ATP
@14ATP 4 жыл бұрын
Thank You. 4 Hours of university in 5 minutes :D
@mintylove1175
@mintylove1175 7 жыл бұрын
I was having trouble understanding my textbook and your video cleared it up for me! Thank you so much for doing this! :)
@gullomarketing
@gullomarketing 3 жыл бұрын
Most important teching method is so simple and easy to understand. Thank you so much sir
@bhanupiyushsingh3510
@bhanupiyushsingh3510 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Josh for saving our lives 😀❤️
@ferlynservado2888
@ferlynservado2888 Жыл бұрын
thank you so much. now I understand how to calculate the exponential smoothing
@joshemman
@joshemman Жыл бұрын
Glad it helped!
@alexandriawatson1846
@alexandriawatson1846 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for this. Please don't stop providing these helpful videos. you are straight to the point and its wonder. you made me learn this and save me from a restless night! thank you! #subscribing
@JeffMaughan7
@JeffMaughan7 3 жыл бұрын
This guy is my hero.
@gizemcelik8494
@gizemcelik8494 5 жыл бұрын
omg thank you so much, I am literally pulling an all nighter and u helped me so much
@davidfelsberg1056
@davidfelsberg1056 3 жыл бұрын
Very well explained both verbally and via example! Thank you!
@user-God-s-child-0101
@user-God-s-child-0101 3 ай бұрын
Whole world's godfather bless you all always and you all remember him always.
@pratapsingham7010
@pratapsingham7010 5 жыл бұрын
Super loved it....My teacher also could not fix it for me and you did..Regards...from INDIA
@atonukabir7126
@atonukabir7126 9 ай бұрын
You are a life saver man ❤
@anniemainza159
@anniemainza159 2 жыл бұрын
So clear and we'll explained. Thank you so much. 100% clear
@DSIRAGGIE
@DSIRAGGIE 3 жыл бұрын
Thank youuuuu!!! You saved me hours of over-studying!
@franklinatsuofori8099
@franklinatsuofori8099 7 жыл бұрын
Thanks bro . Very short but insightful and very loaded. Kudos
@ambrosegaliroots8496
@ambrosegaliroots8496 4 жыл бұрын
Great presentation & explaination Sir. Glory to Jesus...Amen
@tasiavlachandreas6700
@tasiavlachandreas6700 6 жыл бұрын
YOU ARE SAVING MY LIFE RIGHT NOW. THANK YOU
@MrHadeedian97057
@MrHadeedian97057 3 жыл бұрын
Very nice to have grip on basics of SES.
@himalayagupta7744
@himalayagupta7744 3 жыл бұрын
so smooth that was, and your soothing voice does help. Thank You
@porchelewis8338
@porchelewis8338 6 жыл бұрын
You really saved me on this exam I have tomorrow!
@sabrinaquan865
@sabrinaquan865 4 жыл бұрын
Wow crispy clear and make it sounds so simple to understand
@piscestown
@piscestown 2 жыл бұрын
this was so easy to understand omg thank you for sharing such info!
@arielspalter7425
@arielspalter7425 4 жыл бұрын
This is a very fine tutorial! The only thing that could have been noted is the process of selecting the alfa value. but all in all, fantastic job. subscribed!
@finalsystem8346
@finalsystem8346 4 жыл бұрын
how to know the value of alpha to be used?
@boriskimbouala6746
@boriskimbouala6746 3 жыл бұрын
The best way to forecast the first period is to take the average of the time series: 39+44+40+45+38+43+39 = 41. In so doing the forecast is more sensitive to the actual sales. Which you verify by plotting both the forecast using the first period as 41 and one demonstrated in the video, you will see that using the one in the video your sales forecast will lag behind your actual sales value.
@lalisamanoban9359
@lalisamanoban9359 3 жыл бұрын
i failed my long exam thinking this is hard. after watching this, i realized it was actually pretty easy.
@tylerlufkin9893
@tylerlufkin9893 4 жыл бұрын
You just made me pass my midterm, thank you!
@alexanderkarapetyan2125
@alexanderkarapetyan2125 Жыл бұрын
Great explanation Mr. Joshua!
@chickenbroth35
@chickenbroth35 8 ай бұрын
you deserve everything
@mo7ammd78
@mo7ammd78 3 жыл бұрын
That's really helpful! Thank you! But I still have a question. How did you get alpha? Is it just the ordinary intercept? Or another parameter?
@smaranrai4898
@smaranrai4898 3 жыл бұрын
I have the same question. can somebody help us?
@Mizanah
@Mizanah 6 жыл бұрын
Eh eh my brother, you have helped me out a lot, I used the formula for my coursework at university, you got a po box? I wanna send you a gift still!
@mikeczyz
@mikeczyz 4 жыл бұрын
That was a really clear and easy to understand explanation. Thanks!
@kylebecker5083
@kylebecker5083 3 жыл бұрын
You're videos are the best
@nonowu3970
@nonowu3970 8 жыл бұрын
Ur videos are always so helpful!!! Thank you!
@joshemman
@joshemman 8 жыл бұрын
You're welcome +Nono Wu
@siddhantagarwal5313
@siddhantagarwal5313 4 жыл бұрын
@@joshemman How do I choose a smoothing constant? Here you took 0.2 to show us an example, but how do we decide a value in our model?
@kasunsuraj349
@kasunsuraj349 8 жыл бұрын
its very helpful for me to solve all the questions among the smoothing......thank you
@asmanaqi8320
@asmanaqi8320 3 жыл бұрын
thank you so much for your simple explanation.. plz do video on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment
@EllaBellaVS
@EllaBellaVS 7 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much! You are talented at teaching this helped me tremendously.
@nalendraariefani8376
@nalendraariefani8376 3 жыл бұрын
Wow thx really help! Greeting from indonesia 🇮🇩
@rashijain8214
@rashijain8214 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much. You made it much easier.
@ahmedmoustafa8814
@ahmedmoustafa8814 7 жыл бұрын
why did you use Alph = 0.2 is using α=0.2 that mean the certainty of events =0.8 ?
@abdulrehman75189
@abdulrehman75189 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for explaining so well.
@ujuakuchisom7278
@ujuakuchisom7278 2 жыл бұрын
This is so so good. Thanks a lot, sir.
@flatmattress3203
@flatmattress3203 2 жыл бұрын
holy fuck im gonna cry i finally got the answer i needed of course i still have my assignment to finish in less than two hours and i havent even learned the rest of it but hell this shit took me hours, fuck i should have came here sooner god my teacher fucking sucks, bless her soul but she's not a great teacher
@aayushchawla8617
@aayushchawla8617 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much! This was very simple to understand
@yorgundemokrat4615
@yorgundemokrat4615 Жыл бұрын
I am a big fan... god bless
@dandcc9192
@dandcc9192 6 жыл бұрын
He knows deh wae... in wheech dae values will mueve.
@WisdomPagesTV
@WisdomPagesTV 8 жыл бұрын
Excellent!! detailed, quick and clear.. Thank you very much!
@WaveStyleSlippy
@WaveStyleSlippy Жыл бұрын
My business class mention about this topic and didn't tell me how to do it, only mention it's harder than simple moving average.
@prasanthgmgks
@prasanthgmgks 7 жыл бұрын
What is the significance of Mean Square Error? Is it need to be less than a threshold to validate the forecasting? If yes, how to find the threshold?
@grimandi2003
@grimandi2003 7 жыл бұрын
you way better than my professor..
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