FOUNDATION Isaac Asimov's PSYCHOHISTORY Explained

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Foundation 🚀 Isaac Asimov’s Psychohistory Explained. Introduction to the Foundation series that’s being turned into a show on Apple TV+. Please Subscribe - bit.ly/PetePeppers
The original Foundation series by Isaac Asimov introduced the fictional social science Psychohistory. Asimov based the concept on the kinetic theory of gasses applying that to humanity. The character Hari Seldon devotes his life to developing Psychohistory in the Galactic Empire’s capital of Trantor. He discovered that the empire would fall and created the Seldon Plan to help shorten the period of chaos and barbarism that will follow.
This video explains how Psychohistory was conceived and how it works in the fictional universe Asimov created. We discuss the axioms of Psychohistory, and how Hari Seldon prepared for the crises that he predicted would occur after his death.
Psychohistory is a social science that uses mathematics to generate probabilistic predictions of future events. It is the analysis of “mob behavior" and doesn’t work on the level of individuals.
About Isaac Asimov:
Isaac Asimov was an American writer and professor of biochemistry at Boston University. He was known for his works of science fiction and popular science. Asimov was a prolific writer and wrote or edited more than 500 books.
Asimov wrote hard science fiction. Along with Robert A. Heinlein and Arthur C. Clarke, Asimov was considered one of the "Big Three" science-fiction writers during his lifetime. Asimov's most famous work is the "Foundation" series, the first three books of which won the one-time Hugo Award for "Best All-Time Series" in 1966.
Foundation TV series official summary:
Based on the award-winning novels by Isaac Asimov, Foundation chronicles a band of exiles on their monumental journey to save humanity and rebuild civilization amid the fall of the Galactic Empire: apple.co/_Foundation
Foundation stars SAG Award-winner and Emmy-nominee Jared Harris as Hari Seldon; Lee Pace as Brother Day; Lou Llobell as Gaal; Leah Harvey as Salvor; Laura Birn as Demerzel; Terrence Mann as Brother Dusk; and Cassian Bilton as Brother Dawn.
Foundation is executive produced by Robyn Asimov, David S. Goyer (showrunner), Josh Friedman, Cameron Welsh, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, and Marcy Ross. The series is produced for Apple by Skydance Television.
Foundation books:
Complete Foundation series - amzn.to/3lpOUnd
🚀Foundation - amzn.to/3qNxv93
🚀Foundation and Empire - amzn.to/3tlUTML
🚀Second Foundation - amzn.to/3eHgU4n
🚀Foundation’s Edge - amzn.to/2Q4u8Ol
🚀Foundation and Earth - amzn.to/3eElYqm
🚀Prelude to Foundation - amzn.to/3bNzq9w
🚀Forward the Foundation - amzn.to/3vxD7YA
🤖 The Robot Series - amzn.to/3dgN59c
👑 The Empire Series - amzn.to/3dbWDT9
I would recommend reading the series in order of publication as they’re listed here. I would advise against reading the prequels first.
This Foundation Psychohistory video explains everything about Asimov’s creation. It gives a background for the Foundation series without spoilers for how things end. As a fan, I’m hoping that the TV series will be able to develop an engaging show that can tell the complete 1000 year story of Hari Seldon’s Psychohistory, and the two Foundations he created to help the Galaxy avoid a 30,000 year period of decline.
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0:00 Intro
0:57 What is Psychohistory?
2:32 Hari Seldon’s Plan
3:51 Axioms of Psychohistory
6:46 Is Psychohistory possible?
8:05 Prime Radiant & Final Thoughts
#Foundation #AppleTV #IsaacAsimov #FoundationSeries

Пікірлер: 280

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Hopefully we'll get a full trailer for Foundation next month. I'll definitely do a video for that when it comes out. I suppose a working real world psychohistory is more likely than humans colonizing the whole galaxy without encountering intelligent alien species. Let me know if you have any questions about psychohistory, and what you think about the upcoming series.

@clarkkent7973 2 жыл бұрын

I think you raise an excellent point on the lack of aliens in the Foundation series.

@occhams1 2 жыл бұрын

Essentially, Psychohistory is Statistical Thermodynamics applied to human behavior with the same strengths and weaknesses of that framework. An individual human - like the Mule? - is essentially a quantum particle. The most interesting 'thought problem' that comes out is something like 'killing Hitler'. In psychohistory, the jewish holocaust was inevitable - even if you killed Hitler, someone would fill that role and we'd be talking about killing "Hister" instead - because the societal factors were there independent of Hitler himself. Someone else would have 'freely' chosen to become that person. Its one of the philosophical 'outs' for the determinism vs free will debate.

@uncannyvalley2350 2 жыл бұрын

If they were to use psychohistory on us, we wouldn't know anyway, so claims that it didn't pan out with the advent of computers is presumptive, especially in light of Cambridge Analytica etc, in fact it would only take a few key revelations to show our own history and society at large could well be modelled on this very concept

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

Have you read Jari Kakela essays on Isaac Asimov? It links psycohistory with Elitism and Historicism. In other words that some men should manipulate society for the greater good. The same concept Asimov uses in his Multivac stories when Humanity gives up their own freedom. Its rooted in Asimov naive belif in Scientific Positivism. I can only see psycohistory as a danger to humanity.

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

@@occhams1 there is a contradiction in psycohistory. On one hand the Second Foundation says Its not deterministic and It shouldnt be followed as a Religious Dogma. But in the first Book the fall of the Galactic Empire was inevitable. The thing with Determinism vs Free Will is that, in this case, It determines if Society has the hability for Self Determination. If Self Determination is an illusion then the work of Psychohistorians is the one of an Authoritarian Elite manipulating society in the name of a greater good. The Second Foundation makes matters worse because then we know Seldon's prophecies are not written in Stone and the job of the Second Foundation is to take away free will in the name of greater good. While Comunism is based on Historic Materialism and Psycohistory is based on Kinétic Theory they both end the same way. The only reason Psycohistorians didnt destroy democracy is because they see democracy as irrelevant. I keep linking Asimov's views with Richard Dawkins defense of Elitism. As if Scientific Positivism keeps pushing towards authoritarianism. Multivac might as well be another form of Plato's Philosopher King.

@angeldutchess2996 Жыл бұрын

I started reading Asimov in the mid 1980s and never stopped.

@TheRealAlpha2 2 жыл бұрын

I don't remember which book it was, maybe _Foundation_ or possibly _Second Foundation_ it's hard to say it's been so long, but I picked it up from my high school library because I needed to write a book report and needed something that I would actually read through. My attention span as a kid in the 80s/90s wasn't great unless it had spaceships and/or robots in it. I think I read three or four books in the foundation series then jumped to I, Robot and one other book from the Robots series. Something about those first books energized my imagination so much, it started me on a huge novel reading kick. I think when I realized how far out of sequence I was chronologically, and a few other factors like book avilability pushed me to find other authors. I was already a bit of a Marvel comic book reader, but after those five or six Asimov books I think I snatched up a new sci-fi book from the store every other month for several years. I guess just a testament to how finding a good read can get a kid invested.

@296jacqi 2 жыл бұрын

I want you to know that your videos have inspired me to start reading again. I finished the Dune series after weeks of obsessive reading. I finished another series and have started yet another now (Hyperion, Dan Simmons). I’m saving the Expanse for later, as I don’t want to read past the show and I know I won’t be able to stop once I start. Thank you for the reawakening the bookworm within. It’s so rewarding.

@MossyMozart 2 жыл бұрын

@Michelle Peacock - In addition to Asimov's Foundation trilogy, I have another name for you to read...Ursula K Le Guin. I'm not into her wizardy books (nor anybody else's), but her sci-fi is achingly beautiful. If you only read one of hers, I suggest "The Left Hand of Darkness".

@ecbrown6151 2 жыл бұрын

I’d say just go for it on The Expanse, the last season is coming up and they have combined so many plot point and characters it’s not going to change much for you. Enjoy!

@ArmanZaidi 2 жыл бұрын

such amazing immersive book series’s

@cletus2580 2 жыл бұрын

My two favorite SF series are the Foundation Books and the Culture series....If Utopia cannot be defined as a place it certainly can be viewed as an Ideal...A cogent summary....enjoyed it...

@PeloquinDavid 2 жыл бұрын

I (somewhat reluctantly) share your scepticism. I do cherish the memory of reading Foundation decades ago (and its central ideas did capture my imagination and have stayed with me a long time...) BUT: Foundation's "Big Idea" of a nearly perfect prediction-making social science grounded in a "law of large numbers" (in an analogy to the physics of large numbers of gas molecules in an essentially closed system) just hasn't aged well since Asimov wrote it. A lot of what we now know (through chaos theory) about the behaviour of complex systems - even fully deterministic physical systems - strongly points in the direction of chaotic behaviour of such systems that make them impossible to predict beyond a certain period of time. Now, that period of time may be reckoned in centuries or millennia for relatively simple systems (like planetary systems: the first glimpses of chaos theory were in the "3+ body problem" first noticed by astronomers) that, while open in principle, interact with their galactic environment on very long time scales (in human terms). The problem of timely prediction is much more acute when dealing with complex, open systems with huge numbers of different AND differentiated "moving parts" that interact with each other and with their environments on a much-accelerated time scale. The poster child for this is earth's weather (and, much more controversially, its climate - particularly when the climate-changing actions of human societies enter the equation) where it is now (unlike in Asimov's time) widely understood to be impossible to predict (at least in practice if not in principle) beyond a very short time horizon. If you think about the system described in the Foundation trilogy, it's unquestionably a lot closer to the complex open system of the weather/climate than it is to the "3+ body problem" of planetary system dynamics. For that reason alone, I don't hold out much hope for anything like a "psychohistory" or "Seldon plans" ever becoming a reality in THIS universe...

@ianthomas7863 2 жыл бұрын

I first read the original foundation series in High school, 1978/79. And became obsessed with SciFi novels, then read Assimov, the Robot series. I have collected the complete Foundation series. Can't wait to watch this production, of Foundation.

@ricardomeza8038 2 жыл бұрын

I would begin re-reading Foundation saga with "Pebble in the Sky" and then read all of them. Analizing the First Gradient with 99% of correlation coeficient we can understand that the Seldom's plan were very different. I'm waiting my whole life to see it on the screen. Congrats to whom have courage and money to do it. Galaxy!

@dubiousmike 2 жыл бұрын

why reread anything? This is barely Foundation.

@basedbear1605 2 жыл бұрын

I had a course in college... FSU... called "Writing about Science Fiction"... my final paper was on comparing Seldon's Psychohistory and real PH. This is a good video, but the only thing I would say is that PH is NOT fictional. Not at all. It's been in use for over 100 years. It may not include the mathematical models that Seldon's PH does, but people have been using mass predictions for a long time.

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

I can't believe I didn't know about this as I'm a huge sci-fi fan! Thank you for making this video, gonna go reread the series now...

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Yeah, the show got delayed because of the pandemic, but we're getting close now.

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

@@PetePeppers1 I looked online at my library & they were all checked out so SF is definitely getting psyched for it which is awesome. I looked on youtube for the audiobook & found a reinactment which gave me crazy dreams as I left the whole trilogy running all night- Ha! This will be so much fun as I love both male lead actors they kept showing in the sneak peaks. I wish we knew who they cast for the mule... Anyhoo thx again, you always have great videos but I rarely comment. I'll change that as I just subscribed & that makes it so much more fun. I got really into Mare of Eastown(sp?) & can't believe how much that lameass husband still bugs me now that I'm reminded of him lol. Do you do a lot of sci fi? I'll check out your past videos after some pizza & baseball...

@macgonzo 2 жыл бұрын

Adam Curtis has some interesting documentaries that would be relevant to the idea of psychohistory... If I recall correctly, the series is called, or at least the first episode is called, All Watched Over By Machines of Loving Grace.

@xhagast 2 жыл бұрын

Psychohistory sounds too good. Until you look at the books and realize that Seldon KNEW things would need nudges from time to time and he set up the Second Foundation to provide them. The First Foundation had Manifest Destiny to push it along the way and the Second Foundation to make sure it didn't stray. Psychohistory wasn't perfect, it was the blueprint, the engineers would see to it that the thing actually worked.

@Diomedes01 2 жыл бұрын

Good summary. That is exactly correct. Sheldon was using the psychohistory mathematics to try to 'steer' things in a specific way in order to minimize the 10,000 years of chaos that would ensue if nothing was done.

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

Hegel, a philosopher, and father of modern historicism made a coment everyone forgot. Future is lived as open and any intent from some one to manipulate the future will doom everyone.

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

Historicism and the Greater Good are the seeds for Authoritarism. Scientists always agree with Plato that Aristocracy is way better than Democracy. "Society must be shepperd by an Elite of Experts" is something both Plato and Dawkings agree. Its not wonder one of Asimovs Utopias feature Multivac, a Machine Dictator. Psycohistory implies that Societies lack the capacity for Self Determination and that they should be guarded by an Elite that cares about "The Greater Good". Scientific Authoritarism is no better than Plato's Idea of Philosopher King.

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

Asimov was not a fascist but I can see how his positivism can lead to fascist. The same way darwin wasnt a racist buts racist apropiated Evolution Theory. The camelot project was, in a way, imperialist psycohistory.

@bemersonbakebarmen 2 жыл бұрын

@@Diomedes01 but its explained that when the mule changed Seldon's Plan the psycohistorians tried to steer history back into the path. Stablishing that psycohistory's success is based in both scientific predictions and manipulation. Then psycohistory is not falseable because you can always manipulate things to go the way you want. Making the Psycohistorians an "Iluminati" like force.

@PeterAnger 2 жыл бұрын

Having read the whole series some time ago as well as the robots series, one key element that is not discussed or is just a background assumption is economics. If that were worked into the story of weather we have a growth expansion competitive economic model or a collaborative sustainable model there would have a much different array of possiblity. The summation is the economic philosophy is fixed. Economics plays a Hugh part in how mass behavior , behaves...

@rochellehandelman6267 2 жыл бұрын

In an interview (somewhere), Asimov admitted his ignorance of economics. He wrote popular introductions to many subjects, but he couldn't get his head around economics.

@PeterAnger 2 жыл бұрын

@@rochellehandelman6267 economics is the driving force of pretty much every type of change. It's interesting your quote that Asivmo couldn't wrap his mind around the basic economic model that actually determines the course of most scientific discoveries. See: Joseph Schumpeter, "creative destruction". Many times in bad ways for profitability. And damage to our planet, something else that always was not mentioned or dealt with in the Foundation series was pollution and resources, and population growth.

@thesharpercoder 2 жыл бұрын

The best way to read Asimov’s works is in the order of their release, particularly the Foundation series. The best introduction to his works are the Robot novels. I read the three Empire novels next, and the original Foundation trilogy last.

@davidwilkinson8836 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for your suggestions!

@kelseyboat 2 жыл бұрын

Good one Pete thank you

@marknovak6498 2 жыл бұрын

I have read all the books as you have. 1.5 million-word complete 'history of the future', I used to call it.

@garyleibitzke4166 2 жыл бұрын

I've read all the books, Foundation, Robot , and Empire. Looks like I'll be subscribing to Apple TV+ soon.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Foundation is coming in September. Should have a release date and a trailer before long.

@Andy_Babb 10 ай бұрын

Ohhhhh how I HOPE this series makes it seven seasons.

@jerraldwest8531 Жыл бұрын

What's interesting is that we are living the foundation series to at least to some extent. MIT scientists in the 70s predicted the collapse of society would occur sometime in this current decade. And according to the rate of decay that was predicted, we're actually ahead of schedule. Who knows how many centuries of barbarism will have to endure, or if we'll even survive them as a species.

@alexandrasandu3947 2 жыл бұрын

9:54 I've already mentioned this in your first Foundation video but I would really REALLY love to see Daneel's journey. I'm not confident that we'll get it but, to me, he is by far the most (if not the only) interesting character in that universe lol. Apart from that, like I said in that same comment, I would like for them to make a good show, even if not a _good_ adaptation. On a side note, Westword's Incite reminded me of psychohistory. At least at a superficial level.

@claudaniella 2 жыл бұрын

Love Daneel. Lije Bailey is good also, with the human perspective, but who knows if they will tie the Robot novels in? In Foundation, Arkady is a great character I think.

@alexandrasandu3947 2 жыл бұрын

@@claudaniella Tho I'm in my 40s, I've binged through all the books, for the *first time* , only a few years back and I found Bailey's character a bit _dated_ to put it nicely. Old Bogart movies are fine but putting him in the future (and in space)? _Hmmm_ ... As for Arkady, while I didn't hate her, I'm not a big fan of kids and YAs in general so ... it's not something I'm looking forward to in particular. Unless Millie Bobby Brown played her. She changed my mind about youngins in the past lol

@dubiousmike 2 жыл бұрын

Daneel is what this series is really about. This adapted TV series sucks ass and ruined a lifetime of waiting for technology to catch up with the idea of making a TV series around it.

@Symbiotian 2 жыл бұрын

@@dubiousmike I haven't watched the show itself but daneel really doesn't make an appearance until the very last moment of foundation and earth, at the near end of the continuity. the Robot series adaptation would be his moment to shine

@cameronmurtagh9977 2 жыл бұрын

Good summary mate

@wesleymons 2 жыл бұрын

i am so stoked for this show!!! i hope we get it soon!!!

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

They're saying September.

@dubiousmike 2 жыл бұрын

it sucks

@slypear 2 жыл бұрын

@@dubiousmike You are an insufferable troll~

@georgekaragiannakis6637 2 жыл бұрын

The fact that themes of history repeat themselves adds credence to the Azimov’s theory, although no one has yet formalised the analysis. The study of geopolitics and international relations is the closest we get .

@Symbiotian 2 жыл бұрын

I'm still glad my first introduction to asimov's work was I Robot, then the robot series, and then the foundation series in release order without intended as I didn't fully realize they were all part of one set universe. Since that day 7 years ago I still often revisit these books every 2 years or so.

@nadiagreenidge797 2 жыл бұрын

Psychohistory was actually originally studied by Freud and then expanded in the 1950s. Asimov then took these theories and added mathematic algorithms.

@lordfaladar6261 2 жыл бұрын

its been a while sense I read these Books. all very good reads

@Amazingsloth 2 жыл бұрын

great video - I'm looking forward to this series - but more so your sure to be amazing videos on it. Thank you so much.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

No problem, thanks for the comment. Uploading the new trailer breakdown now.

@han_pritcher 2 жыл бұрын

I read the book as a teen, and will read it again before the show airs. I think that while it might not be possible to predict the actions of large groups in some circumstances, I think it is generally possible to predict what large groups will do in response to certain stimuli. We see it all the time; how politics and the press influence the views and actions of large groups of people. The benevolent, guiding hand of Hari Seldon could therefore, with certain nudges here and there, shorten the period of barbarism between the First and Second empires by using a knowledge of "human nature". The risks, however, are rather great. One would have to severely constrain the number of possible variables for there to be even a slim hope of reaching the intended goal of creating a new empire. Then there is the issue of empires themselves; that no empire lasts forever and is destined to fall. Only the size of that empire dictates how long it lasts, and how long it takes to break down. Fortunately the guiding hand of another, rather unique individual, had a solution to this as well.

@djolds1 2 жыл бұрын

There are various real world approximations and attempts at Psychohistory. Azimov was no doubt aware of the works of Oswald Spengler and Arnold Toynbee when he started writing. The closest real world approximation today is probably the Cliodynamics of Peter Turchin.

@UteChewb 2 жыл бұрын

Underrated comment.

@xero0083 2 жыл бұрын

Very interesting I have never heard of this series ill look for it. 🤔

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

It's a classic of the golden age of sci-fi.

@Wiz4243 2 жыл бұрын

This reminded me of that super A.I. in Westworld season 3 and that was fucking awesome. Foundation in September. Dune and Invasion in October. This is a gonna be a great season for science fiction!

@Werrf1 2 жыл бұрын

As a rule, I always recommend reading books in publication order. That's the order the ideas were developed, so it makes the most sense to me. I'm looking forward to seeing Trantor, Terminus, and the resolution of the second Seldon Crisis.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Generally I think publication order makes the most sense too. In this case he definitely wrote the prequels expecting readers would already have read Foundation's Edge and Foundation and Earth.

@Werrf1 2 жыл бұрын

@@PetePeppers1 Yup. Ironically, Prelude to Foundation was the first Asimov I ever read, and it made all kinds of references I didn't understand and assigned weird significance to minor or irrelevant points - which made perfect sense after I went back and read in publication order.

@Werrf1 2 жыл бұрын

@4Freedom4All Really? What ideas have they deviated from that you can tell from the trailers?

@Werrf1 2 жыл бұрын

@4Freedom4All Yes, I've seen both trailers. And here's the thing - all the stuff you just listed? Doesn't deviate from Asimov's ideas. It's details that Asimov either didn't mention, or paid little attention to, or couldn't have known about. The race and gender of Gaal Dornick and Salvor Hardin are not significant to the story. The parentage of the Emperors is not important to the story. What's important to the story are the ideas - the sweep of history, the need to look forward not back, the importance of wit over brute force, fate vs free will, etc.

@arthurpaliden1496 2 жыл бұрын

A circle has no end.

@WilliamLious 2 жыл бұрын

It'd be awesome if the entire history was integrated from robots series to empire series to foundation series and towards the speculative invasion.

@mrnnhnz 2 жыл бұрын

Read them all many times. Reading again right now in preparation for the tv series. Best reading order? I'd recommend Foundation, Foundation and Empire, Second Foundation (the original trilogy,) then the whole Caves of Steel series: Caves of Steel, The Naked Sun, The Robots of Dawn and Robots and Empire. Then the Foundation prequels, Prelude to Foundation and Forward the Foundation. Then the last two books of the Foundation series, Foundation's Edge and Foundation and Earth. By my count that's 11 books, but Pete says he read, '...all 15.' Not entirely sure which other 4 he's referring to, though I'm guessing Pebble in the Sky, The Stars Like Dust, and The Currents of Space. (Still one book short after those two though...?)

@jcwoodman5285 2 жыл бұрын

The Grand Seldon plan for Humanity... Brought to you by Apple TV... 🤗

@melsilva9158 2 жыл бұрын

Irony illustrated

@inkermoy 2 жыл бұрын

Well, they also brought us the Macintosh 1984 commercial, telling us how 1984 won't be like 1984...

@philippemichelvidori7248 2 жыл бұрын

I think he would vomit the idea !

@MossyMozart 2 жыл бұрын

@@inkermoy - Best TV commercial EVER! And it only aired once.

@Ali-bu6lo 2 жыл бұрын

Apparently historian Peter Turchin has developed an algorithm which can be considered the most similar thing to Psychohistory ever developed in real life.

@djolds1 2 жыл бұрын

Turchin isn't the only person to try, but his approach is probably the most mathematized.

@gamrgrex 2 жыл бұрын

Looking this up... this might be life copying art lol

@farouk123 2 жыл бұрын

only people with no real experience of the frailty of human intellectual endeavors would believe in this nonsense

@MossyMozart 2 жыл бұрын

@4Freedom4All - Don't become too invested in psychohistory one way or the other. It's the MacGuffin of the Foundation tales, there to motivate characters and to move the plot along, but ultimately with no real importance in the non-fictional world.

@kallistiX1 2 жыл бұрын

If you cannot model human behavior based on collected data, current trends, and human behavior then nearly every algorithm that fuels nearly everything we are suggested to buy, watch, invest, listen to, and, in quite a few cases, screw and marry is a waste of time. Humans believe we are all far too unique to quantified but KZfaq begs to differ.

@stephendoherty8291 2 жыл бұрын

Quantum physics says if something is observed, the observed item can change without any interaction. Asimovs second law

@ArielSharabi-ee8xi 9 ай бұрын

It's basically predictions of social changes using mathematics to determine the outcomes of mass populations throughout the stratum of history.

@insonh21 2 жыл бұрын

i just purchased this on "Audiobooks" and one of the negative reviews convinced me to buy it the reviewer went on about how there are no women in it and all the dialog is between men and its dated and chauvinistic. that right there sold me and i have not been disappointed, its a great story so far and i plan on buy books 2 and 3 thanks CR for the review LOL

@TheKulu42 2 жыл бұрын

There is the Mule to consider. He represents the paradox of psychohistory. The system can't predict the actions of one individual, yet the actions of one individual can upset the whole equation.

@ADFaried 2 жыл бұрын

Not trying to promote here, but I just think it would be great to share it here... recently I've found a Discord server where some Asimov fans from all over the world hanging around and talk everything about Asimov's work. If you are interested, you can try to search it on "Disboard" website, I discovered it that way! (the server name is Galactic Empire btw)

@MossyMozart 2 жыл бұрын

I hope this series is worth the very, very long wait. And I hope that "Foundation" is way better than that "Dune" movie. PLEASE let it be better than "Dune"! PLEASE let it be better than "Dune"! PLEASE let it be better than "Dune"!

@kyleanderson7852 2 жыл бұрын

Having read the series, I’m looking forward to “The Second Foundation” ‘ Love the culmination of the arc of the Mule and the brilliant simplicity of the 2nd’s true location and it’s ultimate mission to save humanity from itself. If only something like psychohistory could be realized in the real world, we could use it as a tool to limit the destructive effects during the rise of demagogue’s. I like the idea of countering the influence they have on mob behavior. It would be a comfort knowing that their powers could be rendered impotent over the long haul of social development, thereby preventing a “1984” type society from ever seeing the light of day 🤔

@bellgrand 2 жыл бұрын

This is very similar to the various applications of Geometric Brownian Motion.

@ThatGuy-fh5mt Жыл бұрын

I believe psychohistory is here and it doesn't take much to see it.

@danb.3397 2 жыл бұрын

If you look at real history it is an indicator of how people act through time. Look at the fall of great empires ( Greece, Rome, etc.) and it gives a predictable idea of what will happen with more modern empires ( Great Britain and sooner than later, the United States which is cracking as I am writing this ).

@johnwatt2999 2 жыл бұрын

Spot on m8 and corona,Brexit are nudges to try limit how much is lost

@inkermoy 2 жыл бұрын

Asimov and Foundation was the first original sci-fi novel series I read (Star Trek novels not included), and only really because I was a fan of cover artist Michael Whelan and how he described the books. I like how Asimov intertwined his universes together, although it does raise some alarming questions. I'm looking forward to seeing the new TV series. Although from the trailer, it will look more "drama-y" than what I got from the books. It does come off as "Game of Thrones," with a medieval feel to the world. I hope it doesn't do that. Foundation is more akin to Star Trek-like moral conundrums than mystic cults and backstabby skullduggery. But as they say, "Science will advance so greatly, that its workings would seem like magic." We'll see...

@dubiousmike 2 жыл бұрын

I think its awful. What do you think?

@MrKawaltd750 2 жыл бұрын

Some people have already debated the premise of psychohistory and the mathematical verdic is no. The influence of chaotic values over time is too large and thus destroy the first principle of psychohistory. Same problem for the modélisation of group behavior beyond a number of iteration (times, interactions,etc)

@alessaleeebon3628 2 жыл бұрын

I'm new to SF as I'm mostly into fantasy and mystery genre. I bought the Foundation series some years ago but I started with 'Foundation' first. I'm interested to know what is your recommended order of reading the books (it's a lot). Thanks! UPDATE: Halfway through the 'Second Foundation' so far, I'm still loving the series! I totally understood Pete's breakdowns of the trailers more.

@qwkimball 2 жыл бұрын

Read them in the order they were written. You'll get the reveals the way Asimov intended that way.

@alessaleeebon3628 2 жыл бұрын

@@qwkimball will do! Thanks for the recommendation!

@Symbiotian 2 жыл бұрын

To me it was I robot, the robot series, and then Foundation series. Knowing how Daneel started as in previous books and seeing what they did with him at the very last moment of continuity blew my mind!

@Bankside1997 2 жыл бұрын

Marketing in social networks like in the toxic Facebook is based on the analysis of group behavior. This is the base of the business model for Facebook and is done very effectively and only analyzing the group behavior of hundreds of thousands of individuals. Thermodynamics, which is the study of atoms' dynamics in groups which is what Asimov mentions as the base for his idea of psycho history is so precise that they are called the laws of thermodynamics and are one of the pillars of physics. Maybe humans do not behave like atoms at an individual level, but the point of thermodynamics is that the individual behavior does not matter, what is predictable and measurable is the group's behavior. We use something similar to psycho history in our age, we just call it macro economics. Macro economics will keep evolving and as we use more and more artificial intelligence and more advanced computers and quantum computers to study macro economics, we might some day reach the mathematical predictability that the laws of thermodynamics have for the behavior of humans in groups.

@kdemographic8109 2 жыл бұрын

I am looking forward to how they tackle the time jumping/reestablishing what has happened in the past 50 years. It could be done poorly, but hopefully they have a plan for it, perhaps as frame story? Also, Jared Harris = Awesome in everything he does.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

The time jumps are on of the biggest hurdles they have. Constantly introducing new characters is a real challenge for a TV series.

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

Yes- Jared Harris is the best! Couldn't remember his name so thank you for reminding me of how amazing he is

@kdemographic8109 2 жыл бұрын

@@tirzahgayla He is indeed. Happy to help keep his name remembered :).

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

@@kdemographic8109 it's a lazy Sunday so it makes me want to look up everything he's been in & have a movie night 🍿

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

@@PetePeppers1 I feel like they can cap it at maybe 6-7 main characters for the first season. Then again I was dreaming through the youtube reinactment & had crazy dreams so don't quote me lol I will say that trilogy reinactment was fun so give a listen :)

@flyingwombat59 2 жыл бұрын

Jerry Pournelle was inspired by the Foundation books. He wrote that he picked his major because of them.

@ShazzPotz 2 жыл бұрын

What subject did Jerry pick as his major: black studies?

@flyingwombat59 2 жыл бұрын

@@ShazzPotz BS Psychology, MS Psychology (experimental statistics), PhD Political Science.. Check out Strategy of Technology that he coauthored. I read excerpts myself.

@ShazzPotz 2 жыл бұрын

@@flyingwombat59 Thank you for your prompt reply. I read about Jerry Pournelle on wiki and learned he used to work in Operations Research. OR is sort of like psychohistory, in real life. As far as his Strategy of Technology: Is China trying to do that Strategy on us in America right now, by outspending us on solar panels and electric car batteries and smartphone production etc?

@flyingwombat59 2 жыл бұрын

@@ShazzPotz it’s not so much outspending, it’s more like having the sole production lines thanks to the Western belief that China would turn to democratic ideals if they made money. Probably the biggest miscalculation since Neville Chamberlain went to Munich in 1938.

@DLites151 2 жыл бұрын

I always think Zeroeth Law when considering Elon Musk, and funds put into space travel.

@ecbrown6151 2 жыл бұрын

Watched the first two episodes last night, the first was solid the second not so much. Hopefully the show finds it way.

@phoboskittym8500 2 жыл бұрын

If you think of reality being fractal, you could see some similarly between large groups of people and gas molocule behaviour...

@aljawisa 2 жыл бұрын

Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars: An Introductory Programming Manual

@KaliFissure 2 жыл бұрын

The Rand Corporation did this decades ago although granted for a shorter time frame. Alvin Toffler gave a good framework for modeling up to around now…

@paulkenny5052 2 жыл бұрын

So when does the DVD's come out?

@glennscott8622 2 жыл бұрын

While skepticism regarding psychohistory's precision may be valid, that does not preclude modern ruling elites from reaching a different view, either by their own analysis, or through hubris. The Great Reset and the feel of the world presently gives reason to believe that while not precise, psychohistory is at play into where the world is heading. Self-Awareness of such being a further corruption additive to imprecision.

@mksensej8701 2 жыл бұрын

Maybe the great rest idea was inspired from Foundation . If you take a look of the media manipulation and human anthropological inherited behavior you can say that things are just spinning in cycles even the technology has somehow advanced but human civilization not much .

@dominicklittle9828 2 жыл бұрын

I have a bad feeling about this show. The book is too good for Hollywood. Especially apple

@didwin97300 2 жыл бұрын

Fondations books are so hard to resume in movies even in a trilogy. Maybe a tv show will succed, but issues will be on characters, because they're not the same over the course of the story.

@dominicklittle9828 2 жыл бұрын

@@didwin97300 it will be perfect for Hollywood now that I think about it they already create characters nobody cares about and can be forgotten easily

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

It's still relatively new, but Apple has stuck by the originals it's produced. It might be the best chance to get a longer multi-season story. They're looking for something big. We'll have to wait and see.

@clarkkent7973 2 жыл бұрын

Based on the "For All Mankind" series, I think there is a good possibility that you are right.

@SerPapus 2 жыл бұрын

@@PetePeppers1 Ted lasso abs the morning show are so good

@j.dunlop8295 2 жыл бұрын

Today a professor, who read these book fifty years ago, is developing future history; he predicted 2020, being chaotic! 8 years ago. Peter Turchin is a Russian-American evolutionary anthropologist, specializing in cultural evolution and cliodynamics-mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of the dynamics of historical societies! "Too many elites, their competition for wealth and power, destroy societies."

@KateeAngel 2 жыл бұрын

The idea that centralised empires are good for people is terribly wrong

@lkrnpk 2 жыл бұрын

Just to imagine how many people are influenced by Gibbon's ''The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'' is amazing. Gibbon was a giant among historians, of course, but he was also a product of his time (not to say we aren't too) and today it (for most indirectly, of course) has become almost like a gospel for conservatives who read in it what they want to read and say that the same will happen with Western Europe, USA etc., although there is nothing cyclic in time. British Empire didn't go down as the Roman empire, for example, and it would be silly to think an empire can be eternal or that an empire is necessarily a good thing to have. In many ways Roman Empire was a dead end and if it hadn't collapsed, it is probably more likely we would still use the same tools they used then and have slaves, than we'd have colonies on Mars run by space legionnaires. We have an example of Chinese civilization which had ups and downs but under various dynasties never fully collapsed and it was never able to start the industrial revolution. Hence also Asimov's ''obsession'' with restoring the empire. Why? Of course, the book makes it feel like it was a bad thing that Roman empire collapsed, but this collapse introduced competition in Europe among various smaller kingdoms, after some time it kickstarted the age of scientific discoveries and industrial revolution

@upgrade1015 2 ай бұрын

It took me a while to get into it but I ended up loving it but season 3 if they make it won’t be like 1and 2 and empire is my favorite

@normanhosford2506 Жыл бұрын

I get the idea that the crises don't just happen, they are necessary periodic bottlenecks that cut back on growing deviations from the plan. The second foundation has to force each crises to happen so they can push its resolution in one direction. Kind of like the current political idea that a crisis is too good an opportunity to waste.

@grandsome1 2 жыл бұрын

It's kinda funny that a company known for their control freakiness has its flagship TV show be about how to predict and control humanity's future. That's quite poetic.

@kefumna 2 жыл бұрын

Pretty sure the practice of psychohistory through modern media and big corporate has been happening for sometime?

@mikefrey07 2 жыл бұрын

I like the idea, it's quaint, psychohistory could probably predict the reaction of masses of people by way of historical inference. We know how people react to crisis ala The War of the Worlds or World War I or World War II, sirens et cetera. It wouldn't be shocking to model people's predicted behavior over thousands of years based upon there knowledge of data points like drought, famine, warfare internescine and squabbles in a political situation. There's no reason mathematics be used to predict these complex scenarios.

@humboldtdrygoods1087 2 жыл бұрын

Please if you get a chance read and review the book "a psychohistorical crisis" its a non Asimov foundation book.

@zxKAOS1 6 ай бұрын

9:15 Uhmm, was that a typo, or deliberate... "scinece fiction" with 'n' and 'e' swapped?

@while.coyote 2 жыл бұрын

Psychohistory is ALREADY being used, you just don't know it yet.

@anonpadius 2 жыл бұрын

Second Foundation keeping things on lock.

@elbruces 2 жыл бұрын

[citation needed]

@jimmytimmy3680 2 жыл бұрын

Algorithms. Planned markets. Data collection and privatization. Manufactured consent.

@elbruces 2 жыл бұрын

@@jimmytimmy3680 Sure, but they can't exactly predict where we'll be a hundred years from now, much less a thousand. Which was the entire point of Asimov's "psychohistory" concept.

@nadiagreenidge797 2 жыл бұрын

September 24th and the trailer is out on Apple +

@ahcokris 2 жыл бұрын

I loved the scene where the Empire scares a mathemathician to death by screaming at him the scene is like a lion and a dumb lamb. the guy just crumbles in front of a man who holds the galaxy in his hand =)

@nickl5658 2 жыл бұрын

I believe Psychohistory is possible. We already know how to influence the public to do things that they do not want to do like wage an endless war against an opponent that was never a danger to the nation. The problem is none of these acts are done in a scientifically rigorous manner with math as a guide. Much like how bridges were built in middle ages. People could build bridges... but they didn't have the math to express why it would stay up and exactly how much weight it could carry before collapsing. I think in 1000 years... we would have some real theories, and 1000 years after that we would have basis of psychohistory. Who knows may by the year 20,000 we would have psychohistory.

@padawanmage71 2 жыл бұрын

SPOILERS Even Asimov wrote in the story that Psychohistory is a statistical science, not an exact one. Hence why he a backup plan, the Second Foundation to keep the Plan going in the proper path. I do wonder is we’ll see robots as one of his main characters R. Daneel Olivaw is still alive and trying to keep humanity going.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Spoilers Daneel is going to be involved from the beginning, but not sure when the significance will be made plain. I tried to avoid giving away twists with the Mule and the Second Foundation in this video, but yeah Hari understood the need for a backup plan.

@destroyer0685 2 жыл бұрын

I think democracies use a form of psychhistory, it's called polling. Despite this Asimov's theory is logical. His math breaks down into percentages of probabilities where you have classic bell curve with its mean and outliers. You can actually make sound decisions using probability. But, human emotions and reactions can throw any decision based on probability out the window as your subjects given a certain stimuli all have to act a certain way. If this does not happen then your decision, based on probability will fail.

@KaliFissure 2 жыл бұрын

This is SO INCREDIBLY RELEVANT considering where we are with computation.

@Hochspitz 2 жыл бұрын

If I remember correctly, I think I only read the trilogy when I was in my late teens, some 50 years ago! And if truth be told I can't remember any of it, other than I would have enjoyed them as I did all things Asimov. So if the show is any good I would be keen to revisit but I don't have apple tv, so shall wait to hear your reviews first. Thanks Pete for your great work!

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Let's hope they can pull it off.

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

Read them again just for the fun of it! I reread my favorites every decade or so & different things always stand out. It always surprises me how it's never the novels that changed, it's me.

@fpvx3922 2 жыл бұрын

Why not make a whole video about it, inclusive spoilers, same with Expanse, etc...

@alex30425 2 жыл бұрын

8:40 “We’ll get a full trailer soon, maybe next month” AppleTV+: About that…

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Uploading the breakdown video right now.

@os2171 2 жыл бұрын

I Don't know about psychohistory, but as a Behavioral Ecologist, and neuroethologist, yes, behaviour even human behaviour can and IS modelled mathematically, from the level of molecules, genes, systems neuroscience to whole brains and into societies. Yes, behaviour is actually modelled mathematically. But although those models hope to be predictive (in the sense of predicting hypotheses), they are not entirely deterministic, they're more probabilistic and can't predict how the future will develop.. because, since behaviour is an expression of evolution and evolution does not have a goal other than keeping reproducing, fitting traits and behaviours to changing environments, there are no absolute and desirable outcomes. Although is a subject of population ecology and population genetics to study populations over generations, the far future behaviour of human societies is unlikely to be predicted...human behaviour has, of course, patterns that more or less are predictable...but...how a particular political system will behave over centuries across a galaxy would require to have very stable conditions across all the different planets... a pretty unlikely prediction...

@jdee8407 2 жыл бұрын

Straus and Howe Generational Theory, decently accurate formula of predicting humanity. Give that I can see how Psychohistory is a real possibility give more advance computers and and also more advance studies on human behavior and such. Straus and Howe Generational Theory is just a primitive form of this.

@nadiagreenidge797 2 жыл бұрын

The best thing is Jared Harris...

@ericpowell4350 2 жыл бұрын

Psychohistory is very much possible. We can see it happening in todays world with behavioral algorithms. Imagine when AI and quantum computing begin to mature. Attach these technologies to a network of real-time streaming data being fed by an ubiquitous sensor networks. Psychohistory is an eventuality.

@williamdaniels9728 2 жыл бұрын

I think we could get to "Psycho History" one day but it'll require super computers and very powerful AI. Somewhere around the year 2050 we might be able to more accurately map future human development in a macro/mob sense.

@DidntKnowWhatToPut1 2 жыл бұрын

"Is psychohistory possible?" Well governments and big tech companies certainly believe so in a sense. They collect "Big data". This is a collection of data from as many sources as possible, from train ticket sales, how far people walk everyday, the colour of cars, the kinds of entertainment people watch, The theory is if you apply the correct formulas to big data you can predict things such as the outcome of the next election with a high degree of accuracy.

@wd2989 9 ай бұрын

Well it’s Aug 2023 and I’ve watch all of season 1 and 6episodes of season 2. It’s a good show but as a fan of the books I find it difficult to watch because I keep “looking for the book characters and book scenes” that I know occurs in the story. And unfortunately they’re just not all there. The writers invented some new characters and stories - which are fine and entertaining- but I wanted more of Asimov’s dialogue and character/scenes; especially the plot twists that come with each Seldon Crisis. Oh well. We got something different.

@dellonman 2 жыл бұрын

The fourth turning.

@dorbot 2 жыл бұрын

Thats going to be good aswell. Dune is there too but psycohistory is interesting, AI as in iain m banks makes psycohistory a bit more believable. I know there is no AI in the Foundation series.

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

Yeah, there weren't really even computers until he came back later to add to the series with the sequels/prequels.

@clarkkent7973 2 жыл бұрын

The whole point of Psychohistory is that you have an intelligent elite (technocrats) guiding the society/economy. This is already being done in China. (Or said another way, this is communism which could not be openly discussed in America during the time when Foundation was published)

@tirzahgayla 2 жыл бұрын

Your comment reminded me of Dune where one planet controls the drug to which the rest of the galaxy is addicted. The Spice must flow!

@SerPapus 2 жыл бұрын

China is so scary man. They will literally run the world. Also they did this in Westworld season 3

@djolds1 2 жыл бұрын

Look up "The Managerial Revolution" by James Burnham. Published _1941_.

@Werrf1 2 жыл бұрын

That's actually the _opposite_ of communism.

@martainroth2588 2 жыл бұрын

So are you saying that the elites guiding our economy are dumb? What makes the elites in other countries any better?

@martainroth2588 2 жыл бұрын

Before he died, didn't he allow open source for his materials? When do the copyrights open up?

@PetePeppers1 2 жыл бұрын

His daughter Robyn manages his estate. She has a producer credit on the show.

@ohadzeid745 11 ай бұрын

Psycho-history might have more to chew on, if you look at yhe Physical laws of Thermodynamics you van not only predict gas molecules, but also you can predict many other behavior of a group in pre conditioned constraints you can predict pretty good how the overall system will behave. By theory of Criticality, the system is most susceptible to change in its critical point (like liquid(un ordered) and solid(ordered) for water). If you look at history you wont see a society becoming radical during completely peaceful times, yet you can see it happening in moments where its most critical. Great example would be 1930's Germany where they dealt with hyperinflation and on verge of collapse, thats when the whole political system was most susceptible to be shifted radically and resettled in an ordered condition. So its like when they were on a verge to order-disorder transition you could rearange the whole system and when it cooled down into this new system. On the other hand you can get Rome where they fell into disorder and after a while stablized to different regimes of order in different spots. For conclusion even something as unpredictable as humans in large enough quantities you can predict to some extent what points in time the critical points will appear so even a small group can change things

@paulziolo9241 2 жыл бұрын

Psychohistory is indeed possible - indeed, it is very much underway. However, a psychohistory that truly reflects the emergence of humanity on this planet(and its ultimate destiny) is built on an entirely different set of axioms and assumptions than those guiding the Asimovian or general American (hence highly constrained and biased) vision. To begin with, we really need to understand what is meant by ‘prediction’, do we mean ‘prediction’ (in the commonly-understood sense) or NAVIGATION?