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Testing Monopoly Tips with Python simulation. Should you really ignore greens? (and much more)

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Games Computers Play

Games Computers Play

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 825
@Some.username.idk.0
@Some.username.idk.0 3 жыл бұрын
Best advice on monopoly, don't become the common enemy of the group
@cubing7276
@cubing7276 3 жыл бұрын
Nobody is gonna trade with you lol
@TunaBear64
@TunaBear64 3 жыл бұрын
So House shortage strat may be even worse as all players will try to force you to sell houses
@inybisinsulate
@inybisinsulate 3 жыл бұрын
Unless you got the first houses
@cubing7276
@cubing7276 3 жыл бұрын
@@TunaBear64 they can't tho
@TheSteeltec
@TheSteeltec 3 жыл бұрын
This happens to me, every single board game, of if we are playing jackbox games, everyone will collectively target me. People will not vote for my answers on jackbox cause they don't want me to win, they refuse to trade with me, they will actively trade things with each other that mainly handicap me. Welp, can't do much about it now I guess.
@vitorsimoes6126
@vitorsimoes6126 3 жыл бұрын
I'm now really curious about how big would be the advantage if a player used all the strategies that worked
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Well, I think this video ended up being more of a "debunking what doesn't work". But if you do go first and invest all your cash while your opponents sit on their money, I'd say you can be up to 50% more likely not to go bankrupt. Which, if think about it, is not that high. Unless players do something stupid, Monopoly is a big part a game of chance.
@dablob4491
@dablob4491 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay then how do I win against my friend 80% of the time.., I think I might be an anomally
@Tzizenorec
@Tzizenorec 3 жыл бұрын
@@dablob4491 Is your friend one of those people who has one favorite property set and only ever buys that? That would explain it. Is your friend bad at bargaining and constantly giving you good trade deals? That would explain it.
@dablob4491
@dablob4491 3 жыл бұрын
@@Tzizenorec nope, he is actually a decent monopoly player
@Gabriel64468
@Gabriel64468 3 жыл бұрын
@@dablob4491 clearly he isnt
@DPBOX
@DPBOX 3 жыл бұрын
Wow, my family has always been baffled at how I always blow all of my money on houses and hotels and still win most of the time. I never would have guessed that you're statistically more likely to win if you do what I do.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
It is nice to have a real life proof of matematical simulation! To be honest, going in, I thought having some unspendable amount would be the best strategy - 200$ or so. I was genuinly surprised when numbers came back that it is not.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
@@vlc-cosplayer Great that there is a confirmation of that. Because, frankly, I was dead certain there is some perfect amount of cash to keep untouched - and that would be the best strategy. My guess was $200. Was genuinely surprise when those numbers came back.
@dablob4491
@dablob4491 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay tbh, the best strategy is to keep some amount, depending on the situation, for example: if you have around 90% chance to not lose or gain money in the next turn, spend it all, if you have a high chance of losing money, you may want to keep some of it, because buying and selling wastes money completely, yet in most cases u want to spend it because that gains more money. Also, if you are playing with more people, investments make more money.
@athath2010
@athath2010 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay What about simulating saving money during the first X turns of the game to be spent on specific valuable properties that you're about to pass by, like Railroads, the Blues, or the remaining part of a monopoly?
@georgezubat7225
@georgezubat7225 3 жыл бұрын
That's actually something businesses do in real life. Unspent money is actually a liability, especially since unspent money is taxed.
@Synthetica9
@Synthetica9 3 жыл бұрын
Shame you didn't run a final simulation with all strategies that proved advantageous... Great content, keep it up!
@kailomonkey
@kailomonkey 3 жыл бұрын
Good idea. Could be worth doing :)
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
FAQ: How does trading work in this simulation? Basically, each player has two lists: one of the things they want (missing pieces to complete a monopolly) and things they offer (stray one-of-a-color property). Every move proran search a match between pairs and trios of players - to match what they wish for and offer. If such a match found - property is excahnged, whoever gets the expensive one, pays the price difference to ehoever had a cheaper one. I agree it is quite basic - and it is a little unfair to whoever trades a cheaper item. But my question is: what it is like in real life? When you trade a 100 plot for 200 plot - what do people do in this situation? How come the sum of winners are more than 100%? It is actually a "survival rate", that is player is not banlkrupt within 1000 turns. As there are "endless" games that have 2,3,4 players at 1000 turn-mark (see my other monopoly video for details on that), the sum is greater than 100%. You should always trade up! Interestingly, I ran a simulation where Steve refused all deals where he would receive a cheaper property. Guess what - he ended up with seriously lower chances of survival. It gives you 50% opportunities to build a monopoly than your opponents, which is more important than a few bucks you are alledgedly losing on the deal. More on that in future monopoly video, someday.
@GeneralPet
@GeneralPet 3 жыл бұрын
In my experience, people never trade with me if it means I complete a colour group and they don't. If both of us complete a colour group (with mine being a more expensive one), then they will ask for the difference in value, but they might ask for a little more as my colour is has higher income. Also I figured that players with more money are more likely to accept trades where they have to pay a little extra.
@ykl1277
@ykl1277 3 жыл бұрын
Can't you do a basic reinforcement training to get an intrinsic value of each set?
@axiezimmah
@axiezimmah 3 жыл бұрын
In my experience people tend to only trade if it means they also get a monopoly. Although I do tend to play also another version of monopoly where that effect is lessened. It's the best version of monopoly I know, but it seems to be rare. It's a stock market edition where you can invest in properties. So instead of outright owning the property, there's 9 shares in each property that you can build houses/hotels on, and whoever holds the most shares, owns the property (they can build on it if they own the majority on the whole color group). The shares increase in value when there is more demand and also when properties are build. Also when someone lands on it, all shareholders get paid (but only once they pass start, so payments are delayed). If you land on a property you are a majority shareholder in, you don't pay, but if you have only a minority share, you just get a discount
@peterpan4038
@peterpan4038 3 жыл бұрын
There are other factors that play a role in real games. Stuff like "yeah, fair trade, but you have money to build houses left" => pay extra for the threat YOUR monopoly poses to me. Blocking the housing market (buy them all) can be done by an alliance of two or more players, hence marking the others for near certain doom. And games aren't decided by average incomes alone, streaks happen all the time. Having bad dice for 2-3 rounds can very much bankrupt someone. This gets more or less nasty depending on who own what colors (landing on green twice can bankrupt, on brown the unlucky player wouldn't even be seen as unlucky). Like in most games: Players have to survive AND find a way to get rid of others.
@Pyotr_Troyan
@Pyotr_Troyan 3 жыл бұрын
Can please answer. How long took you in time to run 100k and 1m experiments to gain data?
@mlseg5143
@mlseg5143 3 жыл бұрын
Wow I managed to find a hidden gem youtuber like this. Ty algorythm
@crazycolbster
@crazycolbster 3 жыл бұрын
Pro tip: Not playing Monopoly cuts loss rates by 100% and gives you an extra 4 hours of your life.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
True, this is all simulated for 4 players. Not sure what you mean "last property/set"?
@linuszarrouk2004
@linuszarrouk2004 3 жыл бұрын
Negative: you lose 4 hours of pure fun
@cmyk8964
@cmyk8964 3 жыл бұрын
A curious game. The only winning move is not to play.
@lesbo37
@lesbo37 2 жыл бұрын
Added bonus of keeping your friends/family as well!
@mattiOTX
@mattiOTX 2 жыл бұрын
And 1 less table to flip back over.
@laytonjr6601
@laytonjr6601 3 жыл бұрын
I had never heard of the "buy only 3 houses" tip, usually it's "buy 4 houses so that no houses are left and no one (except you) can buy hotels" Edit: bad habit of commenting before seeing all the video The tip I created myself was "buy everything except utilities because they don't give enough money back" and I'm glad I was right
@danielyuan9862
@danielyuan9862 3 жыл бұрын
Buy 3 houses is for rent value. Buy 4 houses is to use up all the houses so no one else can buy them.
@reddragon3132
@reddragon3132 3 жыл бұрын
Buy 4 if you have the spare cash. But if you have teh choice of buying 4th houses or investing money elsewhere, the other option is likely better
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
There were times when we put property up for bid and paid half price (mortgage value) + $1. There must be some value for the greens and utilities to make them worth buying for the player AI that didn't want them at all. Likewise if you're short of cash, when is it worth mortgaging to buy more property?
@germmanator
@germmanator Жыл бұрын
@@sandal_thong8631 I thought when you land on an unowned space you can only decide to buy it or let it go to auction, not mortgage in order to buy it.
@draco18s
@draco18s 3 жыл бұрын
Interesting. The first-player advantage is significant, but in theory, giving the other players more starting money (first blush, an extra $65 per position) might make up for that.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
That's a great idea for a test: how much money would it be enough to make it equal again?
@fatalfencer
@fatalfencer 2 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay finally, a house rule I might use! lol
@timokautto9815
@timokautto9815 2 жыл бұрын
Or, change the order upside down a couple of times at the beginning of the game - I mean the last starter gets the second go first.
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
Different starting cash would be a good variant of Monopoly if we can quantify it. The other question is what's the optimal starting sale price of properties? some may be worth more than their starting price, others like the utilities, less. They said they changed the prices and rents for the game _Anti-Monopoly,_ which I only played once.
@superprofi4307
@superprofi4307 Жыл бұрын
Other idea is bidding/ blind bidding who goes first
@aura_6913
@aura_6913 3 жыл бұрын
The data's actually really interesting. One thing I've learned is that spending it all really is more valuable than saving. I followed basically all the other advice anyway (though I still think that the greens are tactically viable against players who know what they're doing, since most will ignore them entirely), but I would've thought having at least a small safety net would be a good idea. Definitely going to remember this video next time I play. Great content, though, man! New subscriber here, watched a few of your vids already, recommended you to a few friends. Hope the growth continues!
@jacksonletts3724
@jacksonletts3724 3 жыл бұрын
I think the human aspect is a really important part of this that the data, by necessity, doesn’t capture. When I play people are very reluctant to trade other players monopolies, so going for a known bad color like green can pay off big.
@aura_6913
@aura_6913 3 жыл бұрын
@@jacksonletts3724 Yeah, exactly. The light blues are cripplingly underrated, too. Sure, the profit TOTAL is small, but the profit MARGIN is huge. Going for bad colours can often net you success in skilled, casual games.
@andreiplesa1518
@andreiplesa1518 3 жыл бұрын
I always try to buy everything and use all money,believe me if the other player dont do the same is easy win, the problem is that my friends plays the same, to say this the player that have more colors win except 1 time, 1 player had just 1 color and put entire hotels, and rest got just colors ,bt we cannot put houses because we stuck at negociate, and lost terrain, he made after some loops sufficient to take all of the colors we had ,we tryed to make a deal and put some houses but was to late, I dont just spend because is good to spend I spend because I can stop other players from taking any colors and put hotels and utilities(he sayd that is 1.5 lost change but depends, you will never make utility so will take you down but if somebody make that his change is high at the begging ,but dont buy first)even if you buy everything is still a change to lose,in a game I had houses colors,and I saw other2 players planing to change cards to make both houses ,and they taked money only from me. spending all money can make you best player ,but be prepared because the higher you are the more target you are .
@TheFinalChapters
@TheFinalChapters 3 жыл бұрын
So many holes... let's start with the one that applies to just about all of these: mortgages. Optimal play basically requires mortgaging non-monopolies in order to reach the magic "3 house" monopoly as soon as possible. If you're not mortgaging most of your properties to get those houses out ASAP, you're throwing away any advantage you have by getting a monopoly. Greens may not make for a good monopoly, but *any* monopoly is better than no monopoly, and you can trade other players a monopoly they want for a lot of their cash, which you can then use to build houses before them. If you can't get all three greens anymore, those are the first properties to mortgage because they're such a bad value in general. Doing this, buying green should still be worthwhile as long as it's a four player game (two player games have more limited capital, so greens are dangerous to spend that money on). Even utilities are probably worth buying and later mortgaging with this in mind (unless you're already in the monopoly phase). This mortgage hole also applies to "savings". If you're not counting every single unmortgaged non-monopoly as part of savings, you're ignoring a critical piece of funding for houses, and it's no wonder $0 wins. Someone that aggressively mortgages their properties after they and another person gets a monopoly will be far more likely to win than if they wait until later to get 1, 2, 3 houses. With that in mind, you do still want a small buffer, but it's dependent on where you and your opponents are on the map. If no one's going to land on your monopoly next turn anyway (ignoring doubles), and you're coming up to someone else's housed monopoly, it makes more sense to hold on to your cash/unmortgaged properties until the situation changes, even if it's several hundred dollars. As for the "3 house" rule itself, your goal in the game is to get a single monopoly and build it up to 3 houses before your opponents (hotel for the first two sets). More often than not, the first person to do this will win in short order as anyone landing on a 3 house monopoly will pay an enormous amount that funds both more houses *and* a larger safety buffer. At this point, a second monopoly can be brought up to 3 houses as well if you have it, but unless you've gotten very lucky, you shouldn't have a second monopoly in the first place. Whether you do or don't, the game is all but over if one person has 3 houses on their monopoly and enough money to land on any property on the board without selling any houses. While I like the idea of running simulations, you really need to improve the AI if you want meaningful data. All this is showing is certain strategies do or don't work if everyone's playing a very specific, suboptimal way.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comments and insights. As I said. I have next to nothing experience and relied on those tips and tested them the way I understood them. Now to your points. Mortgages I think you might be right, but it just shows that my simulation is incomplete. I showed that spending up to 0 is better than spending up to 100, 200 - any positive amount. What you are saying is that spending up to -100, -200 etc is even better than spending to 0. I suspect this is might very well be true. With one caveat. Is it possible, that by going too much into negatives you increase the risk of sudden bankrupcy? And there is indeed some optimal amount (like mortgage all, but 200 worth of property) that produces the best result. A matter to settle with further simulations. Greens I am not sure about this one. So in the experiment all other players used greens for exactly that - building monopoly, using as a bagraning chip, mortgaging if they were low on cash. And in the end they were no better of than the guy sho just ignored greens altogether. I have hard time rationalizing it myself - but this is what data showed. 3 houses Maybe I misundertood the original advice, but this was thee only interpretation that made sense to me. If you have only 1 monopoly - then yes, you need to build 3 houses asap, but also you need to build 2 houses asap, 4 houses, hotel. You need to build everything as soon as possible - this is the way to win the game. Any pause there is bad. Or am I missing something. What would be the opposite of that advice? Take your sweet time and not build 3rd house even if you have the money? Thanks for the comment, great discussion.
@TheFinalChapters
@TheFinalChapters 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay Yeah, it's strange that someone with almost no monopoly experience is doing this, but what better way to learn? :) For the mortgages, as others have pointed out, you shouldn't view them as negatives. An unmortgaged property is little more than cash that has a small chance to grow in value (i.e. collect rent) every once in a while. This amount is peanuts compared to even a single house monopoly, so for practical purposes any unmortgaged property that isn't part of a monopoly should just be treated as cash. As far as the risk of bankruptcy is concerned, it's more a risk of having to sell houses unless someone else has already reached 3 houses. Since you only get back half what you paid when you sell a house, it's a huge loss if you have to do this, effectively paying double what you would've lost otherwise. For the greens, as we just established, they weren't being mortgaged to build houses on other monopolies, so any advantage you might get from the small chance of a monopoly on greens is being counterbalanced by having less houses on your monopoly. For 3 houses, it's an inflection point, and involves how casual players approach the game. Yes, you want to build 1 house, 2 houses, 3, 4, as fast as possible. But if you have two monopolies, some people spread out their resources on both monopolies at the same time. Having 1-2 houses each on two monopolies is significantly worse than 3 houses on a single monopoly, which is the point of the advice. 3 houses in particular is "game ending". That is, if someone lands on it, more than likely they lose, and whoever owns it wins. This applies to all monopolies in the second and third row, with the first row needing a hotel for the same effect, plus either a second monopoly or for everyone else to land on them to prevent building 3 houses on their own monopoly. The 4th row just needs two houses to have about the same effect, although boardwalk is the only location in that row that's notably likely to be landed on due to the chance card.
@Spectification
@Spectification 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay 3 House strat could also mean the intentional limit of the house supply. With a finite amount of houses available, upgrading to Hotels is heavily discouraged, since you are limiting opponents ability to gather cash from other players. With 32 houses, only 3 1/2 sets are possible to have houses in total, which should be counted in as a strategy.
@lollakasfamilianimi3246
@lollakasfamilianimi3246 3 жыл бұрын
I have never seen anyone play in they way you described and therefore this video is more valuable by not including your mortaging exploit
@TheFinalChapters
@TheFinalChapters 3 жыл бұрын
@@lollakasfamilianimi3246 Any strategy can be effective when you're playing against bad players. It's called pub stomping, and it doesn't make it a winning strategy against players that know what they're doing.
@Chloe-ju7jp
@Chloe-ju7jp 3 жыл бұрын
These videos are so good, that when I misread your sub count as 3.9M I was like "Yeah that sounds about right". Absolutely floored when I realized my mistake...
@CriticalMonkey623
@CriticalMonkey623 3 жыл бұрын
It's crazy coming across such a criminally underrated channel. I get the feeling that the algorithm will bless you in the near future good sir. Best of luck with your youtube journey, I love your videos.
@minebrandon95264
@minebrandon95264 3 жыл бұрын
man i am glad i subscribed, didn't know we were getting part 2 so soon
@Some.username.idk.0
@Some.username.idk.0 3 жыл бұрын
Same
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks guys! Probably not gonna be so fast for the next one though. I am in the middle of coding my next project, and usually making a video is even more time-consuming. Hope it is going to be worth the wait.
@minebrandon95264
@minebrandon95264 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay i hope so too
@romano-britishmedli7407
@romano-britishmedli7407 3 жыл бұрын
I always used to buy the brown properties and build houses on them, since they were so cheap. Good to see I did a lot right. Great video!
@np8139
@np8139 3 жыл бұрын
Commenting for the algorithm. I can't wait to use these tips in the next game of Monopoly I play.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks! Looking back at the video I think it turned out to be more of "debunking monopooly tips". Most of them don't work, and those that do, bring only small advantage. Only thing that can make a difference is "go first and put everything in".
@zynstein8059
@zynstein8059 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay I mean, I appreciate the debunking on my strat of ignoring browns :D
@a11aaa11a
@a11aaa11a 3 жыл бұрын
I think auctions are very important to consider, as is other players playing with the same strategy. E.g. if you're the only player willing to buy green and it goes to auction, it's almost certainly worthwhile to buy it for $1
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
I don't think anyone buys it for $1. Usually the bid for unwanted property is mortgage price +$1.
@herbwalters1958
@herbwalters1958 2 жыл бұрын
Part of the problem with unwavering strategies is that each game is dynamic. Some actions are powerful early in the game and some are better later. If only one player controls any color group that allows them to play differently than if other players also had groups. Following proven strategies is good, but circumstances can cause a person to play more aggressively to try and force other players to be weakened.
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
Yeah, like if two players are avid traders, and believe the first two who can trade for monopolies can eliminate the other two before both or either can get a monopoly. If it's a tournament, there may be some value in coming in 2nd place, too.
@bandaigod5736
@bandaigod5736 3 жыл бұрын
This is my favourite video on KZfaq now. I love it!
@harleykf1
@harleykf1 3 жыл бұрын
Just wanna say first of all, I really love this type of content. I thought your video was very cool. Definitely be conscious of the strategies that the opposing AIs are using, since it's not easy to statistically "prove" that one strategy is better than another. Playing against sub-optimal opponents definitely could affect your results. I tried building a chess AI based on a random opponent, and it ended up wanting to capture protected pieces because it didn't think the opponent would capture back. Nevertheless, I'll definitely try some of these strategies out. Wish me luck. :)
@walugusgrudenburg3068
@walugusgrudenburg3068 3 жыл бұрын
I feel like move order is heavily effected by auctions. Sucks that it's hard to simulate objectively, since I bet it would equalize quite a fair bit.
@Henrix1998
@Henrix1998 3 жыл бұрын
Since it is open source project, someone could code a reasonable auction AI and slap it on top of it. I might give it a shot
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Go for it, that would be great. I do feel a bit bad that I didn't clean up the code much. I tried to leave some comments, but some of my programming habits are quite terrible (like obscurely naming variables). So if you are up for a challenge, might need some untangling of logic to do. Also, should have used GitHub like an adult.
@justingolden21
@justingolden21 3 жыл бұрын
Honestly there aren't that many auctions, nor important ones per game. Unless you're playing with a group that has absolutely no idea how to play...
@walugusgrudenburg3068
@walugusgrudenburg3068 3 жыл бұрын
@@justingolden21 Depends on your player amount. 2 player for example it's nearly impossible to not auction. (Assuming you use official rules where any time you refuse to buy from the bank an auction happens on that property)
@justingolden21
@justingolden21 3 жыл бұрын
@@walugusgrudenburg3068 that's a good point. Almost every game I've played has been 3,4, or 5 players. I have no idea how 2 players plays other than 2 players when the others have been eliminated
@Cookie_ninja9001
@Cookie_ninja9001 3 жыл бұрын
Man, I just typed out a long ramble/rant about my childhood strategy before watching this video to see how it holds up to math. Then KZfaq stopped responding, so here's the rundown. In essence treat the board not as individual properties, but as sets. Any set will out-value any individual property. We played highest dice roll goes first but no buying properties until you've passed go once. For the first 1-2 (big early rolls do 3) buying times round, trade nothing, if you have none of the color you land on, buy. If you have 1, don't buy, unless you also have at least 1 property in the next two colors in front of you, then buy. Trade utilities away, they're worthless to own, and hold way more trading power than you'd expect to make from them. Prioritise trading for orange, light blue, brown, and red or yellow but not both, in that order. Never make or accept a trade that would complete someone else's color set. Trade higher valued individual properties or a similar value + cash to complete your own sets. This makes people think they're gaining value, and they are, but long term your set will outweigh the investment you made trading at a loss. Build a hotel on your highest value set first, then houses the rest, then hotel them all. I haven't played in probably 8 years, being 10-11 when we played often and hating the luck factor. I've never had a real reason for why this was my strategy other than 'it feels intuitive for minimising the luck', but I only remember losing a handful of games with it - always down to luck of the rolls. I mean there's more to it than just what I've put here, over time I realised monopoly is just as much about psycology and manipulating people as it is about properties and sets. But that's the run down.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks. Personally I agree with having one lap without buying things, but this is not canon. I am not sure what to do with, say advice "prioretise trading for Orange". If you have 1 orange - you trade it for something else, if you have 2 - yes, you want the 3rd one of course. But same goes for all sets, no? Never accept the trade that complete someone else's set. I have the biggest problem with this one. In my simulation the base line for trade is: trade completes both traders' sets. Otherwise there is no point in trading. If everybody doesn't agree to trades that complete oppponents' sets - no monopolies will ever be completes by trade. Might as well not trade a all. I maybe looking at it from adult perspective and it's different when kids play, but I think hoping to get a deal when you get a monopoly, but the other person doesn't is wishfull thinking. Or this is something happening regularly with younger players?
@Cookie_ninja9001
@Cookie_ninja9001 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay I'm glad you agree with the first lap thing, though not canon it feels like it it removes some of the "whoever rolls first is most likely to win". As with trading I couldn't tell you why I liked going for those colors, I just kind of did. Never trading to complete other's sets does introduce more of a challange when it comes to trading, but (in my younger experience anyway) people usually are willing to give you something that'll complete your set if you can give them the second color in one of their sets, and usually cash on top too. Meaning value wise I would almost always trade at a loss. After watching the video money in hand is a great factor I hadn't thought of beforehand, I would try to have as little cash money as possible and put it all into properties. Looking back at it I think I started playing Monopoly with my family at around 8 years old, but being almost 22 now and not having played a game in years now I'd like to believe I could come up with a more optimised trading pattern - or at least bargain better than I could back then to get better deals. But in general as long as you're overpaying for a property you can complete your sets pretty easily. I'd love to see/find the most optimal strategy and chances it gives, though with the differences in how everybody plays I suppose there couldn't just be one across the board strat.
@Arikayx13
@Arikayx13 3 жыл бұрын
It would be interesting to see the ‘mortgage everything once you hit a monopoly and build build build!’ strategy works in a million games.
@stevef4930
@stevef4930 Жыл бұрын
Monopoly is too situational to really broad brush everything, but this video does a good job of making that clear
@PattyManatty
@PattyManatty 3 жыл бұрын
Another possible nuance to this is, some of these strategies could show as positive effects against your baseline player, but could have negative effects while other good strategies are applied to the other players. Put differently, some strategies can be more punishing to other specific strategies. Like a Rock Paper Scissors dynamic
@macnolds4145
@macnolds4145 3 жыл бұрын
Posting this before watching the vid. Here's the essential Monopoly strategy: - Buy everything you can (i.e. never allow a property go to auction early on in the game; if you land on it, buy it) - Trade with other players in order to gain "monopolies" (i.e. usually 3 properties of the same color group), so you can put houses/hotels on them - Late game, stay in jail in order to avoid paying rent (or paying anything else) - Because of the frequency of which people land in jail, the orange/red properties give you the most bang for your buck (i.e. they have good rental income and are situated at likely dice roll values from jail) - Late game, since only a finite number of houses can be purchased, it may be wise to use houses instead of hotels in order to block opponents - Trade, trade, trade, as without expressing skill via negotiations with others, the game is all luck; Monopoly is really a game of trading
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
- You got it quite right with the buying and trading. - I didn't test jaiil strategy, so can't say. - Orange and Red: this one turns out is where everybody missed an important thing. Brown and Dark Blue are easiest monopolies to complete - making them more valuable statistically speaking than Red and Orange. - Houses inseatd of hotel. I tested the most straightforward implementation of this, that is, plainly refuse build hotels, in all situations - and it is a very bad strategy. I admit it can be more beneficial if you use more nuanced aproach. And again: totally correct about trading.
@macnolds4145
@macnolds4145 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay Thanks for the reply!
@MrBluemoon74
@MrBluemoon74 3 жыл бұрын
I would really like to see of certain "house rules" are an advantage or a disadvantage, but they have to apply to all players. common house rules i know of: 1) complete one lap before you can build houses. 2) all taxes are collected in the middle, land on freeparking to collect it. 3) no trading cards until the last card has been sold. 4) no building till the last card has been sold. 5) if you land on a railway you can travel to another railway owned by the same person, by paying the rent due again (and skipping expensive parts of the board) 6) get the houses/hotel from your opponent when he goes bankrupt.
@brandonsinger4857
@brandonsinger4857 3 жыл бұрын
so shocked when i saw that you only had just under 2.5k subs, insane, you deserve so much more, keep up the good work
@Caspitein
@Caspitein 3 жыл бұрын
Shocked you only have so few subscribers, so commenting for the algorithm. Very interesting video, I'll be using these tips if I ever play Monopoly with my family again ;)
@ltsMeNoodle
@ltsMeNoodle 3 жыл бұрын
I discovered your channel today, you're really underrated. I love how you put the source code in each one of your videos.
@BioHazardCL4
@BioHazardCL4 2 жыл бұрын
Properties advice and saving cash idea was mind blowing
@walula
@walula Жыл бұрын
what started out i thought was a fun meme video turned out to be an increbily interesting research Bravo!
@magetsalive5162
@magetsalive5162 2 жыл бұрын
I thought the entire point of the "build houses, not hotels" strategy was to deny your opponents house pieces, as houses are finite.
@masonmunkey6136
@masonmunkey6136 Жыл бұрын
That's a good point
@CosmosAblaze
@CosmosAblaze 3 жыл бұрын
Solid video. However, one thing that simulating these situations never accounts for is nuance. For example, you don't want to get obsessed with the blues, but given the chance to buy them you should if you have the money.
@timokautto9815
@timokautto9815 2 жыл бұрын
Very interesting! Real surprise to me to notice how bad the green colour actually is. I always knew deep blue is a killer set. The last point is difficult: I still believe that in certain situations you would be a total jerk to invest ALL your money - say, if nobody is coming to your place during the next two turns and you are facing a jungle of dangerous squares with your very next throw. But these nuances are of course next to impossible to computerize. Great stuff - keep it up!
@lonelyPorterCH
@lonelyPorterCH 3 жыл бұрын
very interesting I haven't played monopoly in years but i was sure interesting to see the results^^
@georgezubat7225
@georgezubat7225 3 жыл бұрын
I once won a game of Monopoly by prioritizing the brown spaces while doing everything I could to prevent anyone from getting all the indigo spaces. My reasoning was that it would be easy getting all the brown spaces because everyone sees them as worthless and that the indigo spaces sucked to land on with buildings. It's pretty cool seeing my strategy actually has a good amount of merit to it!
@Pixova
@Pixova 2 жыл бұрын
Auctions probably increases and decreases the value of certain properties. Specifically greens are are worth more since the investment into them is usually lower thanks to the auction. Assumption is that the player who lands on green knows about the advice of ignoring them and decides to not buy them, giving the opportunity for another player to get it at marked value or less thanks to the auction. There is also the chance that some properties might be too expensive to be bought by the player landing on them for the first time (happens with indigo a lot if you buy everything in your first round the table), further skewing data. The general trend might remain the same though
@CalebTerryRED
@CalebTerryRED 2 жыл бұрын
You should run a simulation where Steve mortgages individual properties to fund house buying (once they have a monopoly). I've always been curious if the houses outweigh the lost properties or not. Also, is it better to put houses on cheap or expensive properties first (if you have multiple monopolies), as well as whether you should do hotels on one set before you start houses on a second. Great video!
@haywoodjblome4768
@haywoodjblome4768 Жыл бұрын
I'm 1 year late, but this is a bit of a no brainer imo. Individual properties earn you such little money, you absolutely make more money by mortgaging them to buy houses
@ashleylentz2651
@ashleylentz2651 3 жыл бұрын
The thing about not building hotels in order to create a house shortage... Only really works if you already have a controlling amount of properties on which you _can_ build houses. If you don't have enough properties on which you can build houses, it would be better to build hotels as soon as possible, so that you can get enough income to buy up properties from your opponents, preventing them from being able to build houses at all. This strategy has merit, and can much more significantly increase your chances of success, but only if applied intelligently.
@_Gecko
@_Gecko 3 жыл бұрын
At this point, “no house rules” is practically a house rule
@DanielBerke
@DanielBerke 3 жыл бұрын
Fascinating stuff! It's so neat to see how these various things add up to a statistically significant result.
@TheKartana
@TheKartana 3 жыл бұрын
Building hotels vs 4 houses has to be done based on position, 4 houses is not generally better but is important to guaranteeing your win when you're ahead, or in some other positions. For example, if the housing shortage will give leave someone else with more houses than you, you should go for hotels to leave more for you. If there aren't more than 3 monopolies, housing shortages won't really matter so you should make hotels.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
I do agree there is more to this rule. But all those tips didn't go into all those nuances - so I just played dumb and tested it as is.
@Linvael
@Linvael 3 жыл бұрын
Not buying hotels advice seems like it might work better if thought of as "don't buy hotels if there is an opponent that won't be able to buy all the houses he can accomodate thanks to that". Also, "don't buy hotels if you can still buy more houses" to keep with the spirit of "don't save money" advice.
@krepstah
@krepstah 3 жыл бұрын
Ive played a lot of monopoly and i can tell you most of these statistics were expected, although i did believe greens were worse than they really are
@tjeerdbakker160
@tjeerdbakker160 3 жыл бұрын
This channel is bound to become massive
@me-pk2kb
@me-pk2kb 4 ай бұрын
Ideas for future games: is it possible you change the buy prices of props to test the win rate? E.g. Greens cost 20 more dollars and compute win rate, it's super useful stuff for auctions. Additionally, can you compute some of these for two players? Railroads are definitely not worth buying w 2 players.
@okin536
@okin536 2 жыл бұрын
Nice baseline stats. Next you could test synergies and metas. For instance, what happens if you use combinations of strategies--would they result in more than the sum of their parts? Second, what if all the players are Steves? Which strategies--if ignored--lower your chances of winning in such a meta? Also, another strategy to include: prioritize building houses on spaces ahead of other players--and prioritize players that are closer to 7 spaces away.
@xmgaming2444
@xmgaming2444 3 жыл бұрын
This channel deserves a lot more attention! Interesting stuff. :)
@iwersonsch5131
@iwersonsch5131 3 жыл бұрын
11:27 Did you account for mortgages on this one? In general, I suspect that your simulation might create fewer monopolies than actual over-the-board trade between Human players tends to generate. This would, besides other things, make saving money less important and significantly increase the chances of an endless game.
@iwersonsch5131
@iwersonsch5131 3 жыл бұрын
The thing with mortgaging property is that a lot of advanced guides _should_ frame non-monopoly properties as mortgage capital, and include them in your savings. So if you want to build houses, saving 0 would mean that you would mortgage everything that isn't one of your monopolies or maybe railroads. Likewise, saving 0 would also mean that you would mortgage all of your properties to buy 1 more property, which yes you can mortgage so you inadvertently have _some_ emergency funds, but if your opponents have a monopoly built up that might be risky. Also, what if you only start to apply this "save X" rule once someone on the table (including yourself) has a monopoly? And what if that X depends on the most expensive 3-house property you could have to pay, or luxury tax if there are no monopolies?
@iwersonsch5131
@iwersonsch5131 3 жыл бұрын
I also think that the "bankruptcy is handled by the bank" house rule overly stabilizes games of 4-8 players even if a player manages to run out of money. If the player causing the bankruptcy received all of the properties, they would have a high chance of finding a new monopoly or at least some good trade options, leading to a higher chance for a decisive game.
@jimmypatton4982
@jimmypatton4982 3 жыл бұрын
My problem is that trading to create sets. Normally in games I play we have 1 to 4 sets created and that is from 0 to 3 trades.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Accounting for Mortgages: no, I didn't. Which is a good point for testing: if 0 is better than any positive number, it is not impossible than a negative number would be better than 0. Number of Monopolies: I have actual zero life experience with Monopoly, but I suspect my simulation produces more monopolies than humans: Simulation allowed for some lopsided trades - pink for indigo, brown for green etc. (with compensation, but still) I suspect in real life players would avoid such deals. Unless people do something that I am totally missing.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Bankrupcy handled by bank Yes, agree, it does not produce extra inequality, while normal rules do - which prolongs the game. In my defence, the rules of it were bit too complex - with recepient having to pay interest immediately and mortgage sum later, if they so desire. I was a bit disheartened by it and just gave up.
@DrewLevitt
@DrewLevitt 2 жыл бұрын
I thought the Monopoly rules were quite clear on player order - players roll two dice and the player with the highest total goes first; then play proceeds clockwise from there. Therefore, there's no strategy available in "trying to go first" - it's effectively random.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 2 жыл бұрын
I re-read the official Hasbro manual after making this video - and yes, you are right. It's basically random. It still offers huge advantage though.
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay In that case there should be a difference in starting money like other games. But how much?
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 2 жыл бұрын
@@sandal_thong8631 I happen to have the exact answer to that question: 1386, 1458, 1534, 1622 It evens out the chances of all 4 players to within 0.1%
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay Nice. I'll have to copy it down for when it comes up next in conversation. Thanks.
@bacononfire
@bacononfire 3 жыл бұрын
I discovered your channel today, and you today upload this. Thank you very much!
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
You're very welcome! Unfortunately I can't promise daily uploads, even weekly. Monthly sounds more realistic... But thanks for sticking around!
@MechanizedMinionMTG
@MechanizedMinionMTG 3 жыл бұрын
you can't not allow for auctions, it's a core mechanic that has a large impact on the decision making process within the game.
@TonyTheTGR
@TonyTheTGR 3 жыл бұрын
I've died to so many got dam misfortunes at St. James Place that I can assure you - Greens are NOT to be ignored. They're extremely strategically relevant given their high relative value and location. Strategically speaking; because "Go To Jail" is the one corner you can't safely land on; and high-frequency rolls (5s-9s) from the preceding Red section before them will nearly always land you on one.
@KryptCeeper969
@KryptCeeper969 3 жыл бұрын
On the "don't buy" category, you are not just increasing the odds of somebody getting the property. You are guaranteeing it
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
I would have the AI bid mortgage price on the unwanted property so no one gets it too cheap.
@Sodmaster111
@Sodmaster111 3 жыл бұрын
I think the auction rule would have a huge impact on this simulation. For example, if buyinggreens for its "ticket price" is a 0% win rate increase, if you get it for some much lower price in auction (perhaps the other 3 players are low on cash) it is much better. A lot of the middle game of monopoly is HEAVILY influenced by who can get the best deal in an auction when all players are low on money.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Yeah, "no action" is one of the bigger holes in this simulation. But I still can't think of any good algorythm that would imitate the way humans do auctions... To much psychology involved...
@Sodmaster111
@Sodmaster111 3 жыл бұрын
well, if the absolute winning stratagy is to spend down to 0, you could have the richest player bid $1 higher than the amount that the second richest player has (assuming it dosent go over the base value of the property)
@gulgaffel
@gulgaffel 3 жыл бұрын
Regarding what property to upgrade first. I think it makes sense to upgrade the property that is most likely for an opponent to land on within a the next turn. So if everyone stands on GO dont upgrade your indigo. Likewise with saving money, if you are about to cross a dangerous area you might wanna save some money, especially if the alternative is upgrading property that opponents likely wont land on.
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
I've tried that and it's hit or miss. I think long-term you want the big payout like a house on Boardwalk. It's worth simulating though.
@WizardPaul1976
@WizardPaul1976 Жыл бұрын
Pro Tips: 1.Browns are worthless. 500 you could have spent on houses on your main. 3 players coming up on Yellows 2 vs. 3 houses a piece. 500 gets 5 houses on Purples & Go money added. 2. Oranges with 3 houses wins so everyone blocks this. 3. 1000 3rd house on Boardwalk bankrupts more than anything mid-game. 4. Light Blues + another monopoly is OPed so no one stupid enough to give you the game. 5. Greens + 3 Railroads off sets cost to build making them powerful. 6. Railroad Monopoly can bankrupt you. You have Oranges and you land on Yellows survive then land my railroad go bankrupt now I have your Oranges and will win game. No one gives 4 Railroads yet 3 is easy and now I will out build you. 7. Purples ok yet weak late game. 8. Boardwalk 3 houses, Greens 2 houses a piece + 3 railroads let someone land on it for 3rd houses. Rest colors do hotels max rent. My favs:1.Yellows easy to get, highest rent before jail, landed on a lot, end game good, easy rebuild. 2. Reds same. Tie 2. Greens & Railroads 3. Boardwalk 3rd house. It all comes down to building the fastest which is mostly luck. Pros games are very close no advantages. Any questions or comments on these tips?
@rileygrill2369
@rileygrill2369 3 жыл бұрын
The reason not buying the dark blues and browns had such an impact on win percentage is because your opponents are much more likely to make a pair than a set. Just like poker. And I had a rule with the railroads where I tried to always get at least 2 to prevent others from getting 3+. It’s more important to prevent opponents from having 3-4 than it is getting it yourself.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
I agree, this (having only 2 items to a set) is most probably the reason they showed such high result. Which means a player should want to have them and not to ignore.
@tttITA10
@tttITA10 2 жыл бұрын
I'd say that, given that the start order makes a difference, the best approach to test the tips would be to test its effects for players in each starting position, rather than randomly.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 2 жыл бұрын
Law of large number says results should be about the same. And yes, in this particular case either woulld have been a valid implementation.
@simonwillover4175
@simonwillover4175 3 жыл бұрын
I am working on my own monopoly simulator now, *in JavaScript*. I will post it on CodePen when I am done.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Sounds awesome! Yes, share the link somewhere here when you are done - I am curious (especially, if you don't cut the corners that I cut).
@PattyManatty
@PattyManatty 3 жыл бұрын
There's certainly a lot of nuance to all of this. With spending your money, if there are no opponents close to landing on your properties, and you're close to landing on something with a big payout, then there is simply no reason to spend all your money. But of course, if you live by a hard rule of "my money cannot go below this amount", then you're going to be in a world of hurt. There's other strategies here relative to how much you are winning the game by. If you are losing, then desperation plays of throwing all your money are are obviously the only choice. Play to your outs. But if you're winning, you can slowly squeeze your opponents out of the game rather than opening yourself to additional risk
@HiggiSIX
@HiggiSIX 2 жыл бұрын
Fun video I like the business power point presentation style.
@hovardlee
@hovardlee 3 жыл бұрын
We played a game called eurobussiness :) And we modified it: - you could build houses / hotels immediately at any property (no monopoly required) - you could have 1 hotel and 4 houses - when you buy houses / hotels you had to pay renting price (not building price) - you could buy houses / hotels in cheap locations and then move to expensive locations (there were a kind of tax for it) It was our version of wild capitalism. And apart from it it was cheating (extra money transfers) :) Because of it game was much shorter.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Totally. I remember as a kid, you don't really care about those "official rules". Whatever seems like a good idea - let's do it. (And now, looking back from the game design perspective most of them were really bad ideas).
@aonodensetsu
@aonodensetsu 3 жыл бұрын
i play with the house rule that a house turned upside down counts as 2 so we never run out of houses house = 1 house house upside down = 2 houses upside down + regular = 3 houses 2 upside down = 4 houses (in some variants where that's a thing) hotel = hotel hotel upside down = double hotel (again, only in some variants)
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
On the one hand, it is one of the more criticized house rules, as far as I know - ignoring house limit by any tricks. On the otehr hand - I had a test to see if it makes any signinficant difference to remome the limit. Turns out it doesn't.
@pokepress
@pokepress 3 жыл бұрын
That chart of property color values could be useful in gauging the value of trades, like if a player gets multiple offers for the same property from different players.
@thedownwardmachine
@thedownwardmachine 3 жыл бұрын
I'd expect the "buy all houses" strategy to work less well with four players since it's harder to get enough property monopolies to monopolize the houses. With fewer players, you stand a better chance of getting the three monopolies you need to soak up all the houses.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
That's a reasonable assumption, agree. I think this strategy should be redefined to something like "don't build hotels if you have 2 monopolies or more" (or maybe 3) and simulated again to see if it makes any difference.
@Laezar1
@Laezar1 2 жыл бұрын
The house hoarding strategy could be refined. As in "only house hoard if you are ahead and actually have the majority of the houses, otherwise don't hesitate to make hotels" Cause house hoarding when you are behind doesn't do anything for you, you're losing the opportunity for hotels and more houses slowing down your growth. On the other hand if you have the majority of houses then you can actually choke the market and stop your opponent from growing which is advantageous for you if you are already bigger than them.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 2 жыл бұрын
I actually tried to think of a version that had a bit more finesse. But the problem for it to make sence there should be already 9 plots with 4 houses. This is 3 full monopoliees. Whatever I come up with is it is either some super-rare artificial scenario, or pointless, as the player in question is already in clear lead.
@Laezar1
@Laezar1 2 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay I mean, strategies that consolidate victory are great in games with a lot of randomness. If there is a lot of back & forth but you're able to lockdown the game once you get to a certain point whiile your opponent can't then you'd gain a lot of winrate. edit : that being said monopoly is a very snowbally game so it might not actually matter. that much.
@ayior
@ayior 3 жыл бұрын
Just found your channel, its so small, yet so good! Usually by the time a small channel reaches me its just before it gets an exponentian boost... I forgot to make this call last time it happened, lets see if my prediction is correct again...
@eaglebound2120
@eaglebound2120 3 жыл бұрын
Such a great video. This deserves more views!!
@TomMarvan
@TomMarvan 3 жыл бұрын
With regard to move order, I do recall one friend who suggested a rule where on the first lap around the board, all actions are frozen - no buying of property, no viewing of chance cards, no going to jail or paying luxury taxi etc., no collecting $200 after passing Go. Sort of a stress free tour of the neighborhoods as you roll around the board once, presumably to prevent the likelihood of the 2nd, 3rd or fourth player rolling the same number as player 1, or any previous player, and immediately paying rent instead of an opportunity to acquire property, a fate that no doubt contributes to the vast disparity in success for player A v B v C v D discovered in the analysis. I never liked my friend’s idea, despite its apparent nobility, and I wonder if it really affects the player success rates, other than marginally, in the long run.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Interesting idea to simulate. My guess is it evens out the inequality, but not completely. Another idea I like is to auction off places - you pay extra (or, rather start with less money) - and you can go first. I actually simlated how much money should be redistributed between places to make it even. Should make another video with the result. It's about 150$ or so for the first place, don't have the exact results in front of me now.
@TomMarvan
@TomMarvan 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay I think one of the official alternate rules suggests doling out the properties like cards to each player and you go from there. Because it is random, that does seem fair, but there is something exciting about rolling the dice and seeing where you will land.
@sagacious03
@sagacious03 3 жыл бұрын
Neat analysis! Thanks for uploading!
@isaacyoung1868
@isaacyoung1868 3 жыл бұрын
I think it would be worth testing the 4 house system again seeing if odds go up if exactly two players always try to hoard all the houses. Do the overall chances for the two players go up relative to the other two? And then what about if three out of four hoard the houses? Do they hurt the chances of the one player who didn't hoard houses?
@lesbo37
@lesbo37 2 жыл бұрын
This is an excellent question as 1 player can't monopolise the houses but two can go very close and would make getting to a hotel very difficult for other players.
@stevenglowacki8576
@stevenglowacki8576 2 жыл бұрын
Most of winning at Monopoly is being a shrewd trader and buying properties for the right amount of money at auction. Those are the kinds of things that are not easily amenable to simulation in standard ways, but the sorts of things that you'd have to dive into neural networks to try to get most out of it, and at that point you'd not easily understand what the computer was doing so it would be hard to formulate it in bite-sized tips. You can easily beat most people in Monopoly by simply understanding the wheeling and dealing aspect of the game better. When I was in college a guy on my dorm floor set up a weekly Monopoly game and managed to win the first few times despite there being an excess number of players such that people were using outside tokens. It wasn't until we all got our feet wet and understood the market we were dealing in that we could manage to beat the master.
@themecoptera9258
@themecoptera9258 3 жыл бұрын
I wonder about paying to leave jail vs rolling, and whether these strategies might be better or worse at certain stages of the game. Early in the game you want to buy as much as possible, go into debt if you have to, but the more you have the more leverage you have in the late game. Keeping a bit of a cushion later in the game when there aren’t as many properties to buy might be wiser, perhaps it’s better to keep a bit of money on hand in case you land on a bad square rather than developing a property for example.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Yes, this one I actually regret to fail to implement in the simulation - I suspect it may have some tangible the result.
@nicktids
@nicktids 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks going to look at your code for interest on how you go it running so fast. I'm your second only follower on GitHub. Good Luck with the channel
@TheDuxbuse
@TheDuxbuse 3 жыл бұрын
The dont buy hotels strategy needs to be backed by aggressively trading for cheaper property. It only works if you get access to the 3 space cheap properties.
@CrystalDragon_
@CrystalDragon_ 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome video! I don’t play monopoly much but these tips will definitely help next time I do (:
@MoreInsane96
@MoreInsane96 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome video. Would love to see more tips tested.
@granberyacademia
@granberyacademia 3 жыл бұрын
It would be awesome to see a monopoly AI based on your program
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
I mean technically it is a Monopoly AI... Just playing agains itself fully inside of a program.
@bob-hp1lr
@bob-hp1lr 3 жыл бұрын
One thing I'd be interested to see is how some of these tips perform relative to other players doing the same thing or with some other bits of nuance. Does avoiding greens/utilities still break even if other players do the same? Does saving money only once another player has 3 houses or hotels do any differently than not saving any money (it is almost certainly bad to save money early in the game where penalties are low but the reward of owning a lot of properties is very high. What about extending the 3 houses rule further (building 3 houses is more important than saving money, worth selling properties to other players for, worth mortgaging most other properties)? What about only applying the 4 house rule when you can get reasonably close to all the houses bought out? What about this in combination with the 3 house rule? It is significantly easier to buy out all houses if you start with 3 houses on all your properties. What happens to various strategies when property trade values are weighted according to your "dont buy" graph (i.e. greens are worth face value but blues are worth double). The "dont buy" graph seems to be a good representation of the actual value of each of those property sets *with the current AI playing the game*. How would those values change if the AI performed differently?
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
If others doing the same - I guess the result should be the same (within the margin of error). You do have a lot of good tips to test - I think I will have to rewrite the code first, currently it is a bit messy to add such complex ideas.
@mik2003
@mik2003 3 жыл бұрын
Amazing content! Keep it up! Definitely subscribed! :)
@Corndog4382
@Corndog4382 2 жыл бұрын
“Don’t build hotels” definitely works if you have multiple of the cheapest sets, you can keep all the houses for relatively low money, nearly impossible to lose
@FrozenArtStudio
@FrozenArtStudio 3 жыл бұрын
got this in recommended. loved it. stayed.
@veikkajoensuu
@veikkajoensuu 2 жыл бұрын
One of my friends agreed on a $25 bet and I'm using this next time we play.
@fletcherlarue3440
@fletcherlarue3440 3 жыл бұрын
Try adding more complex rules... Like: - don't build houses if you're within 1 turn of landing on expensive enemy properties (unless you can cover the cost) - build houses if other players are within 1 turn of your properties - add a simulation for passing and auctioning properties - buying properties to prevent other players from finishing monopolies what are the player trade rules? are your players giving up good monopolies to get "bad" ones? are they trading 2:1? These seem like basic things players do that weren't included in the simulation
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the comment. Here's what I think: - to be honest, I think first two will have no noticable effect. While there is still a lot left for chance, the success is in building/buying enough stuff, so it will statistically drain your opponents faster than they you. These two rules may give you a one-turn advantage, but are diminishingly small in the long run. Having said that, I would have sounded way more authoritative, if I had a simulation showing exactly that. So worth trying. - auctions are the main pain point of simulating monopoly. Everything else I missed can be added, only if I wasn't a bit lazy the first time I coded the simulator. Auctions though ... I have no workable idea how to make it resemble real life. To be honest, I have little idea what monopoly auctions look like in the first place. I feel this is totally depend on people's personality and hardly follow any logic or algorithm. - last one is, to the extend already there. Currently players buy anything they land on, monopoly or not. And trade it later to complete their own monopolies. This is to your trade question. In this version players would exchange properties if it completes mnopolies for both parties (and also one would compensate the base price difference). I actually (this is not in the video, but aybe in the next one) tried to set up an experimetn to see what would be the fair upcharge if you give away more expensive monopoly. Looks like 2:1 ratio is spot on - you should ask to double the difference to break even.
@Ohrami
@Ohrami 3 жыл бұрын
The official rules are not silent regarding who goes first. It's determined by a dice roll. Highest roller goes first and then it goes in clockwise rotation.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Checked Hasbro manual, you seem to be right. So it is a combination of dice throw and pre-existing sitting arrangements.
@kat5607
@kat5607 3 жыл бұрын
1K mark lessgooo! discord when?
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
I don't know what I did (actually I know - nothing), but suddenly youtube algorythm fell in love with me. I hope I can be worthy of this honor. Really appreciate it! As for discord, to be honest, I am barely keeping up with YT comments. :)
@kat5607
@kat5607 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay I'm happy the algorithm picked you up! considering the amount of effort you put into your videos you're definately worth it! keep up the good work but make sure you don't get burnt out :) your health is more important than KZfaq.
@publiusii4246
@publiusii4246 3 жыл бұрын
Yeah man the algorithm decided it likes you. I got a random minesweeper probability of finding an 8 vid and now you live in my recommended. Their good vids interesting and we'll produced. have a sub.
@ussgordoncaptain
@ussgordoncaptain 3 жыл бұрын
So in practical play ignoring greens is stronger because the real advice is to not buy houses on them or build a monopoly for them in general. IDK how your simulation handled this but if you do the "no houses on greens don't trade for greens" I think you'll find a small increase in win%
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Wait, so the advice shouild be - Do buy greens but don't build houses on them? Just use them as a barganing chip you mean? Hmmm... It might be true, but I don't think it will shift the balance much.
@emperorsascharoni9577
@emperorsascharoni9577 3 жыл бұрын
I dont know if this is a house rule, but building houses was always better than upgrading to hotels because there is a limited amount of houses and you can block the enemy from having enough houses to build.
@maxbertman7070
@maxbertman7070 3 жыл бұрын
Varying the amount of players could make a huge difference. Perhaps indigo is worse if you have less players
@akujules
@akujules 3 жыл бұрын
Your channel is seriously underrated!
@hipithautaa
@hipithautaa 3 жыл бұрын
Really interesting content. Subbed :)
@Wilker_uwu
@Wilker_uwu 3 жыл бұрын
i've heard the point of getting hotels is that the physical pieces have a limit, and keeping the houses makes sure no one else can buy those until someone buys the first hotel. you didn't seem to mention it at all (and neither did i ever play the actual game with anyone), so it would be cool to see what would happen if you implement a rule on limited pieces.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
Wait, I do have limited pieces there (32 houses and 12 hotels, if I remember correctly). What I didn't do is to implement any nuances in this strategy - just a hard stop at 4 houses, no matter what player's/opponents' situation. Which may make a difference, I admit.
@Wilker_uwu
@Wilker_uwu 3 жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay i see. thank you for letting me know ^-^
@FabulousFelix
@FabulousFelix 3 жыл бұрын
It's very interesting how browns came right after oranges for effect on ignoring them. It seems that everyone values oranges in the top 3 color sets and browns in the bottom 3.
@bigjamal5229
@bigjamal5229 Жыл бұрын
Its not because browns are actually secretly good, but because you only need 2 of them to make a set. The same goes for the dark blues. It really skews the data for the method he used due to the lack of trading implemented and makes them appear much better than they actually are. In reality the blues are still decent but the browns are still one of the worst property sets to have on the board
@HotBaraDad666
@HotBaraDad666 3 жыл бұрын
There's an advice of paying off the jail time early game to keep up the tempo and then *purposely* stay in jail for as long as possible in late game so that you avoid giving away your money to the opponents.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay 3 жыл бұрын
This is actually a good one. I am not sure if it makes too much of a difference though. I the simulation however, maybe because I was a little lazy, this is the default behaviour. Try to roll doubles, if not sit tight. Pay 50 on the third roll. Maybe I should had an option to pay 50 immediately up to Nth turn and see if it makes any difference.
@barnacles8037
@barnacles8037 3 жыл бұрын
That's the way I usually play as well. In the early game the opportunity cost of sitting in jail is extremely high with large amounts of un-owned property up for grabs.
@kailomonkey
@kailomonkey 3 жыл бұрын
I've used the shortage of houses (as my own idea) before if I happen to end up owning the browns and blues because they're really cheap. So that one I think is very contextual. Only do it if the situation makes it worth it. Otherwise I can understand it being detrimental. The oranges tip I have also persued since going to jail is apparently above average and collecting rent in jail makes it advantageous to stay there by rolling to get out rather than paying. So each roll to get out has a 1 in 18 chance of putting the player on orange, on top of the usual chances for players going round the board. I think that's a worthy boost. Before these plans I had certain folk strategies of my own that most would not follow. I would collect utilities but I also collect stations so I guess they offset when most people aren't interested in them and it does me well. I always bought browns and purples (indigo) and always wanted the greens but that was never easy and probably formed an unplanned distraction. I have to say yellow would always be a bit of a pain and became worth grabbing as the game went on for some reason.
@kailomonkey
@kailomonkey 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the love. So every roll to get out of jail has a 1 in 18 chance of landing on orange that's about 5% but I didn't clearly make the point that across 3 rolls that multiplies to about 15% of any jail visit resulting in an oranger landing :) From the jail square, the oranges are also clustered around the higher probabilities of rolling a normal move on 2 dice (around 38%) where on normal movement passing orange round the board they would fluctuate between higher and lower odds by distance (3%-38%). That community chest 7 spaces away is the biggest pain to the plan being the most likely normal 2 dice result! My strategy never involves swapping to make sets outright though. I'm a bit mathematically minded and try to apply value by benefit to at least demand a big note along with the trade if it's more profitable to the other player than me, even if it's just that they have more spending money to develop. If they hold out they lose out more than me. Can potentially sour straight dealing later.
@alanthielking6527
@alanthielking6527 3 жыл бұрын
It would seem to me that the -1.2% result for utilities indicates not that they should be ignored, but that they are slightly overpriced and should be allowed to go to auction. However, this would be only for the first one landed on. Once one utility is already owned, it behooves the player landing on the other to buy it, if only to keep it out of the hands of the player who has the first one.
@sandal_thong8631
@sandal_thong8631 2 жыл бұрын
Sometimes someone puts it up for auction to make the other players bid it up to get/block a monopoly.
@justinlindfors8512
@justinlindfors8512 Жыл бұрын
1. Move order is inconsequential due to the fact that luck and strategy along with just being fundamentally arbitrary. 2. You ought to buy everything you land on as you want as many properties as possible with auctioning best used when your opponents have less money than the price of said property, all except utilities which are only worth up to the roll of 12 max. 3. Buying up to 3 houses should have been explained in more depth since rent is practically doubled or tripled the original rent plus assuming you can afford a 4th house which isn't a good investment except for thinning out the housing supply. Who wins by this strategy depends on luck and how players trade, Hotels are only essential late game as you want to prevent people from building houses hence the housing shortage, but otherwise it depends on the game. 4. There's no point in saving money as the above strategies suggest.
@GamesComputersPlay
@GamesComputersPlay Жыл бұрын
1. Beyond a few first moves - yes, it all the same. Yet, during those few moves the player going first has a higher chance of buying property than the last guy. Simulation shows that that difference between 1st and the 4th player is equivalent to about 200+ dollars of starting money. 2. Agree with buying everything, except utilities and greens. 3. Simulation shows that a 4th house IS a good investment, and not because of thinning out the house supply. Same for hotels. 4. Yes, that’s what the experiment showed too. What is still unclear is if it is even beneficial to get into some debt to buy more stuff. Something to explore in future simulations.
@justinlindfors8512
@justinlindfors8512 Жыл бұрын
@@GamesComputersPlay Interestingly going first in monopoly is advantageous much like in Catan going 3rd is preferable. I forget what's wrong with greens other than being too expensive and away from jail which is where the traffic is. Buying the 4th house is obviously a good investment in general but the 3 house rule is more about gaining the most profit out of your rent which is evident on the deed cards. There are strategies and safeguards to avoiding bankruptcy such as mortgaging properties to get buy more houses you intend to invest but otherwise, a rule of thumb is prioritizing building houses on your properties as initial rent is downright negligible between landing go and paying bail which surprisingly wasn't explored. Be interesting to look at simulations of Catan and a sequel to monopoly for pros. Such as paying bail during the early/late games or trying for doubles as for Catan having a mixture of minesweeper and monopoly simulations regarding settlement placements along with resource tiles vs number tiles (The relationship between their probability would be interesting)!
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