Speaking to belt and road, former secretary-general of National Security Council of Taiwan, Su Chi, just published a new book about relations between PRC, ROC (Taiwan) and the US. In the book, there was an encounter taking place between Xi Jinping and then Secretary of the State, John Kerry in which Xi once pointed to a world map in front of them and proposed to Kerry that China and US work together to fulfil a grand project that the world have never seen in history in terms of scale, meaning and influence---later to be known as the belt and road initiative. Kerry did'nt give Xi a yes-or-no answer but stated that he would bring the idea back to the State for futher study. Xi had never got the answer back from the US and eventually went ahead with the belt and road initiative by China alone.

AMERICA,S PROBLEM IS SELF DESTRUCTIVE ARROGANCE. THERE IS SUCH AN ATTITUDE IN THIS NATION THAT ALL THE RULES IS NOT APPLICABLE TO US. WE CAN DO WHAT EVER WE WANT AND THERE WILL BE NO CONSIQUENCIES. BECAUSE WE ARE EXCEPTIONAL. THIS IS PURE DELUSION.

One country bombs and destroys while another builds and connects.

US dollars are weapons for decades😅

Excellent analysis and presentation. It clarifies all the clutter in the media.

US government borrowing at the same rate as developing countries sounds about right.

5:38 USA is very mad that it could have been $1T in US Bonds, but China spent it all into Infrastructures.

The word secretive which means outside the western financial system (outside the SWIFT).

$45 trillion dollar Merican debt by 2024...by 2026 there will be $60 trillion dollar minus invisible dark debt.. how is this sustainable?

Kevin: your casino story is very ELEGANT. I actually learned a deep lesson. Thank You.

God bless the good people of China May peace and prosperity come to all in 2024

Many of the high debts (high rents) countries have maxed out or almost maxed out on their IMF credits. China is helping them to produce assets so they can pay off their high rents. Of course, the U.S. viewed that as “loss rents” , loss of “soft power” as well. Therefore they harvested those countries’ foreign reserves thru increased interest rates. The slowdown economies in many high rents countries is the product of U.S. high interest rates. eg. Vietnam boasted over 150 billion U.S. dollars in foreign reserves 2021, after about 20 years of hard work. Now, Vietnamese’s foreign reserves are at about 80 billion U.S. dollars. Indian, Sri Lanka, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, and many others are suffering from the harvest too. All are due to high rents status. Good luck everyone.

Whatever is happening now was predicted by Chinese Academicians back in 2012.

My God! The way that this guy Kevin explain how the Chinese does business. His preception of " Casino House money" being used to build the "Belt and Road" is quite mind blowing.

You are a true American patriot. You provide very rational view of world economics minus wishful thinking. Both countries can grow together in a rational manner.

wow，i am over seventy after listen to you make me feel better and smarter。Thank you very much

Sorry but I found the casino comparison not a good example. Money that China had to invest in B&R was mostly earned through low wages and low margin. Money that US had was the house money by selling $10 goods from China for $100, charging poorer countries $US pricing, and printing money but still spend itself into debt?

In a close economy, where a country does not trade with another country, then technically its government can print an unlimited amount of money to finance its expenditure. But in the real world, no economy is truly “close” as such. Because no country can produce everything it needs. Hence, a government’s ability to print money is limited by the country net exports. In other words, it must be able to sustain its balance of payments without the risk of its currency being devalued or become worthless. But since the end of Bretton Wood in the early ‘80s, the US has become the only country that enjoys the advantage of not having to worry about printing too much money. That is because the US dollar became the de facto reserve currency of central banks across the globe. It also became the primary medium for international trade settlement. The certitude of dollar as the de facto global reserve currency had effectively removed the ceiling to the amount of money the U.S. can print, via the issuance of debts. Theoretically, the U.S. can continue to finance its insatiable appetite for consumption by increasing its national debt, which already exceeded $34 trillion. That is because to the U.S., the cost of capital and labour of other producing countries is no more than the cost of printing of the greenbacks. Being the exploiter of such unfair advantage, the logical strategy would be for the U.S. to view and treat the rest of the world as its strategic partner, rather than as adversary. Unfortunately, the U.S. had become a roque state, and a bully as such. The U.S. had made injudicious use of the unfair advantage to exploit and augment the hegemony of capital. Over the last few decades, the U.S. had imposed comprehensive sanctions against Russia, China, Afghanistan, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Syria etc which heavily restrict trade and financial transactions between U.S. citizen (as well as its allies) and those countries it sanctioned. But the protracted abuse of the dollars hegemony operates as a double-edged sword. Why should the world trust the dollar anymore?

One is destructive while the other is constructive.

very elegant story. make things easier to understand. FED's maneuver of interest rates affects greatly about liquidity market.

You are not only very smart but are very generous with your knowledge and wisdom,congratulations on a good job well done,thank you

"this is going to require alot of flexibility from everyone" you mean its going to snap and break at some point and we won't understand what the consequences will be until it happens because there is no historical precedence for our current predicament.

This was a 5 star show

Sri Langka debt to China is only 10% of the total debt. China had restructured the debt ahen Sri Langka failed to pay back. SL’s problem was not debt from China. The main problem is by borrowing from IMF, SL has to follow direction from IMF. SL has moved away from agriculture to tourism. And with that, they have to abandon chemical fertilizer, everything has to be eco friendly. Unfortunately Covid pandemic has stop tourism, thus their income. The crisis was not caused by spending in infrastructure.

"Your channel is well researched informative and is a great platform to learn! Thank you!"

Yup few years ago interest rates were near zero 🙄

China "Common Prosperity" contribution to the world. Peace & goodwill.

The way you explain this stuff is so amazing, i feel like i am watching a movie

Great story

You told a touching story. Only China's money is not gambling gains but obtained by selling things to the house, although the money is from the house. So, a bit more accurate story is that Mike gambled at the casino and lost while Frank's factory sold its products to the casino and gave some of the casino's payment to Mike.

Great video i appreciate your insight. I am investing into chinese/hong kong stocks myself and find the current pricing due to fear mongering a great discount to those who can find profitable companys/conglomerates who will only keep growing.

IMF rates may only be at 2%, but the absolute kneecapping to the economy the conditions they have for the loans cause is far, far worse than a 5% rate.

China and Russia have cancelled many loans in the 3rd world. And see infrastructure as a long term investment. They also pay fair prices unlike the west.

Thanks. I'm always looking forward to your video every day.

It appears to me China was very careless with their lending and they are paying the price for it. The PBOC needs to be more transparent versus being secretive. The US fed is more transparent about their purpose and their actions which is why the US is still the mostly used currency despite its recent weaponization by our leaders which is a mistake

There is a way to remedy this. China could simply have those countries that have loans with China pay back those loans in Chinese Yuan. This way, those countries that have these debts can pay it back by trading with China.

Thanks for great insights!

You look so depress. Knowing what you know and can't do anything to help.😟😟

As long as US $ is trading/tradeable there is no problem for them as they can print as many ..as for inflation it's meaningless the US $ can buy any # of any goods/services from anywhere..beating the very definition of inflation 😮

A moe appropriate analogy is that Frank works hard to gain a lot of money while Mike borrows to maintain his life.

Great analogy. I really enjoy the way you explain things.

Good content

As long as the world uses the US dollar we will have this problem. Everybody is bitching but nobody wants to stop dealing in US dollars, except Russia.

Thanks, I invest in Chinese solar listed on the U.S. exchanges and let me tell you what a crazy and cruel treatment of their companies.

China’s consistency of market and policies and win-win and consistent growth helped australia avoid a recession for over 20yrs even when america tanked so many other economies. The wirld needs to couple with the steadfast parent china -- and de-risk from the over indebted crazy drunk uncle sam.

Great story to illustrate. 👍

China invested heavily in Greece - look at where they are !

❤China❤

Thank you so much for video. I learn so much from you already.

salamat ❤

again , Thankyou , take care ❤

I love this channel. Clear and concise.

When a gambler loses, he never wants to go home. He would borrow more to gamble some more hoping to win back whst he lost.

Great analysis! Most insightful. I learned a lot.

I just came across this KZfaq channel. You have to be one of the few China analysts I respect. Good job. I wish you worked for the NSA...they sure need you abilities.

I like this view. His other views not so much. In fact not at all. This guy worries to much about America. He should just chill and admire the view.

Oil and gas is in US dollars the demand for them to pay for these crucial commodities has never been bigger since less are around. The less off shore USD there is the stronger it becomes.

Appreciate your informative commentary.

This is why Mike and Frank should have taken separate cars.

poor analogy, its just a successful hard working friend helping another who is not successful but also hard working

I don't understand how foreigners paying offshore dollars for rolled-over debt can fuel inflation in the US? Plus when debt is refinanced, the holders of the old debt, who are partly offshore as well, get paid in dollars, so dollars become available offshore? Or are you talking exclusively about the debt financing the new US deficit? But even then, the countries that have a dollar shortage need not buy these new treasuries. I don't understand the logic. No criticism, just a question.

A very good Analyse! I have an other simple story what can discribe the situation. USA rich people saw the opportunity to win by changing the rules. Than they saw the new competitor, whom they created by out source production to this country, and thought to stop them by "the rules based order". Didn't work. Than they started to play against thair own "rules based order" and the whole world saw openly that all this stories about fair competition are only rules as they are in favor of the little 1 Mrd. People. Or USA had the most successful runners on 100 m sprint, than they started to win with new unknown doping, and now they just hit the competitor in his face at the starting point and are seen by any camera.

Very Nice!

Excellent talk

UX elites have mastered the art of redirecting 🤑 to themselves & their financial backers.

one country receives and the other gives

China ( Frank ) helps the US ( Mike) during the 2008 financial crisis by loaning lots of money to the US to tie over the critical period. Now 2024 Mike comes back to ask Frank for another big loan. However, Frank thinks that Mike is no more a friend who has been quite hostile to Frank lately. So Frank says no to Mike for a loan. Mike will have lots of tales to tell his wife how come he is so broke and Frank is so rich. Mike wife is angry that Mike gambles too much and loses his money and now they are broke. They need to sell their house to make ends meet.

China invests in belt and road initiative. The US invests in Ukraine, Philippines and Taiwan and many other countries in the past such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and many more..

You explain stuff in a way I can understand. In my case, that is exceptional. Thanks.

As long as there r still suckers in economic n financial terms willing to accept easily printed fiat USD in exchange for their goods n services , USA can keep on printing to get or acquire whatever it needs...at the expense of all others 😅

9 TRILLION in in real estate debt in china 🤷 🤷 🤸 😂

What an analogy

China’s trade surplus is due to excess domestic supply over domestic demand. Therefore, it is false to call trade surplus receipts as house money. It’s payment for Chinese production that if it wasn’t lent out to BRI it would become savings. The currency you get paid for your exports is not fundamental. If China were to ask to get paid in yuan, without increasings yuan money supply, the yuan would appreciate and as a result Chinese exports would go down. I’m a China bull too by the way.

KEVIN, looks like the only losers here is “we the people”😱

Thanks Kevin, your short videos are easy to comprehend.. let's hope the Chinese lenders heard your suggestions..

Kishore Mahbubani said: Uncle Sam cannot share.

Thank you for the insight.

Your example was interesting. 1st of all, I don’t mind to have a generous friend like that. Secondly, it is not gambling luck, it’s the reward of hard work. “996” you must have heard it. Thank you. Be good.

Great insight! No one in the US really understands and keeps on bashing China when China is trying to help.

Very very good video

Goes to show Chinese are far smarter.

Terrible. is it 34 trillion over budget?

If Mike was really grateful and thankful to how Frank treated him, and he should be, he would not do anything bad to Frank. In reality, there're a lot of bad Mikes out there and US's the biggest one! And such irresponsible behavior of all the Mikes are taking us to a very big unknown ahead!

This is the most no nonsense analysis I have ever heard and it decodes the fake news I hear everyday!

I like your analogy. Wishing that all will have leveled mind....and have patience to wait it out for all to wise up and economy to return.

interesting . . thanks

You have described perfectly the thesis of Michael Hudson's book "SuperImperialism".

Should be $3000 in loss for mike. His original $1000 , plus $2000 from Dave

To keep the monopoly game going, China will need to be patient , otherwise the global markets just go upside down for a very long time, very long time.

Something tells me China will show that patience and forebearance...

the gross federal held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts is now $34 trillion. There are $38.4 trillion in total U.S. retirement assets. This can only be paid out by inflating the fiat dollar to the level of Weimar/Zimbabwe peak currencies so that the entire debt can be paid off in exchange for a loaf of real bread

theres probably some precedent in the spring and autumn or warring state era where this exact thing happened. Mao put all the chips down on History and Philosophy and won the Jackpot

Somewhat unclear - if these developing countries are doing well in terms of exports (priced in usd) why wouldn’t they have enough to repay usd loans? Most IMF loans are fixed rate, and those older borrowings are at relatively coupons. IMF current lending isn’t at 2% fixed.

Aggrogant the cause

That house money as described is national savings and a sacrifice of the citizens standard of living.

... you realize the money is fake right? Like... why do people pretend fiat is real? The pain is all imaginary. If it weren't so sad i wouldn't think it was this funny.

Sounds like an economist.

The money was not house money that China won. It was earned off the back of hard working Chinese people and it was squandered across the world on failed projects rather than investing into the social supports that are badly needed like better education, pensions and better medical systems. The Chinese did belt and road for reason of national security and the failed idea that they could build a new world order. Now that belt and road has collapsed belt and road is simple about China buying committees as cheaply as possible.

$2 billion per day in revenue not profit, and one hopes China would not lend more than profit they made from the trades

Nobody wins in casino.