The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.

The Australian dream of owning your own home is being replaced with the Australian dream of owning your own tent.

One thing you failed to mention is that we have over 1 million empty properties around the country due to both local and foreign investors hoarding the property market and are unwilling to have these properties available for rent. Local investors do not help as they are cashed up, they are willing to pay overs for the property, hold onto the property for at least 6-12 months with no one living in there, hoping they can get profit of $100-300k .

we aren't choosing to live this way we are being forced

Rich politicians making poor people paying the price on the money printing…😤

I'm an electrician and technician. It's very rare i see skilled labour from overseas. Some are worth their weight in gold, but most I have seen have no regard for local standards.

I live in Canberra, I rent. My parents bought their home a house and land package for $18k in Giralang. My dad was earning 6k per year in the public service and my mum was part time public service 2 to 3k a year, 2 babies, $10 p/month child tax credit total household income was less than 10k per year, interest rates were at 7.5%. That house now, 1.4million, my wife and I have a household income of 170k and we can't afford that.

1. Stock are trading like the Fed already cut rates 2. Bonds are trading like rate cuts aren't happening 3. Gold is trading like we are in a soft landing 4. Oil prices are trading like we are entering a recession 5. Housing markets are trading like nothing is happening..😫

Ive been homeless a year now, couch surfing with mates for a whole year. I work full time. I've never been more mentally unwell in my life as a result. This environment feels so hopeless.

I'm a 23 year old Aussie, did everything I was "supposed" to do! Finished year 12, went to university and graduated with a bachelors in engineering and now have a full time job as an Engineer working in research... AND I STILL CANT AFFORD A HOME. If I can't, then soooooo many others that are less fortunate in their life are struggling far more than me. I'm grateful I have somewhere to live now, despite battling over 50 others for this rental, and the price having increased 3 times since living here, I wouldn't dare leave just knowing how difficult it would be. Australia has a problem...

I am a 71 year old pensioner who spends 80% of my pension goes on rent and power bill and I only eat one meal a day because I don't have enough money to buy a lot of food

$3 billion on performance based funding for housing and $300 Billion on yellow submarines. That should tell you no one gives a shit mate...

ban foreign purchase of property for fucks sake

Skilled labors are not coming to Canada and Aus. They are not stupid. Why would they move to those places knowing their living standard will be worse

This is not Singapore or Hong Kong. This is the least densely populated continent barring Antarctica. This is entirely a structural issue that is caused by enormous mismanagement and greed at the municipal level and exacerbated by state and federal policies. Talk about an enormous government failure.

A property which could be seen as undesirable around 7 years ago would see around 3 or 4 people sometimes less at an inspection on a weekend , now you can see around 80 people. Never seen anything like it.

If you think about it, a rental shortage is a great way to limit people's freedom. Or at least their sense of freedom. It makes you feel constricted & unable to shift environments when you wish. It's that much harder to just change locales for the sake of change. It becomes harder to get out of unpleasant or dangerous living situations. If you feel rent is too high, you are more likely to put up with it because the alternative is homelessness. The housing crisis is a many pronged attack by the economic elites on your quality of life. This is just one of the prongs.

Suggesting that limiting migration could make the housing crisis worse is one of the stupidest things I have ever heard. That number needs to be slashed. 200,000 plus is still massive. Australia is a country, not a destination for the entire world to move to.

The suggestion that we're importing skilled tradespeople to build houses is kinda stupid. Most new migrants are relatively unskilled, and they're not from nations known for their skilled tradespeople regardless.

Government takes in about 50% of your hard earned through direct/indirect taxes... Monopolies through groceries to banking are hoping to take the other 50%... What you have left is the Australian dream...

Yup it’s happening here in Toronto Canada too, and it’s a real nightmare for people who don’t own their own home.

As a disability support pensioner I’ve consistently been paying 50% of my income on rent over the last decade.. I tried relocating to QLD from NSW about 5-6 years ago and was told I would not be considered at all for anything more than 1/3rd of my income.. but there simply wasn’t anything available that low smh the market is much worse now than it was then, and I’m now living with my sister in VIC and paying only 1/3 of the total rent to keep it affordable (still about 40% of my total income) after having lived alone for 7 years. I just turned 30 and I can’t afford to live alone without moving out to a rundown house in the middle nowhere.. it’s insulting to think that people my age are just expected to spend our whole lives either dependant on others or living only in sharehouses like a student or transient.. I’ve seen mortgage payments for lovely new houses that are half my rent, I could afford to pay a mortgage but no lender wants to anything to do with a young pensioner, despite it being a stable and predictable income smh

“Higher skill workers” yet so many people will finish uni and all “entry level jobs” require you to have 2 years minimum experience, it’s a joke

In Finland (or one of those Scandinavian countries) is that every empty dwelling needs to be rented otherwise the government will rent it for them. Australia should do actions like that but the government are too concerned on the potential of it affecting property prices.

Limit immigration. Ban non-residents from purchasing property. Decommidify housing by raising the capital gains tax by 500% on properties not occupied by the owner. Limit investment properties to one dwelling per owner, with a one year grace period to sell any excess dwellings they currently own. This would crash the property market overnight, and may even spark a recession. However, it's a necessary move to fix this horror that PM Howard put us in.

It's all by design, the powers that be can't have everyone living in comfort. They want us all stressed and tied to our jobs...

there is 1 really easy way to fix the property market. Make it illegal for politicians to own rental properties

As someone once said "Landlords and Real Estate Agents all have locations and addresses, Homeless? take theirs, then we'll see how fast the rental market changes"

I know people who have to look for a house to rent. Their landlord passed away and his daughter has put the house up for sale. They can't get public housing because they don't have any they need. These stupid looking governments, both state and federal, won't build any new f***ing houses, yet the federal government has opened the flood gates for more immigrants. We can't house the people we currently have. Why let more people in? where are they going to live? Albo and co has to go. Let's vote them out.

It's hilarious that the media and politicians are blaming immigration. I lived through the pandemic in Australia. The cycle went from closed borders to high unemployment to JobKeeper+JobSeeker (forcing anyone on visas that lost their jobs to return to their countries) to low interest rates to super withdrawals. It caused a spike in housing due to demand, businesses screaming for talent and pay rises happening. Inflation occurred and afterwards, Australia being heavily reliant on international students, allowed them to come back in because Unis and businesses were lobbying hard. Those articles you see of 550K "migrants" that entered Aus in FY23? 80% of them are students. It's only shocking because of the sheer number allowed to enter. The permanent migration cap is 190K per year and in case you aren't aware, has been difficult and is even more difficult to obtain these days. The combo of low interest rates, super withdrawals, WFH, borders locked, government grants and excess household savings led to house prices going up by the end of 2022! Then the government opens borders and takes in so many people to make up for lost time (from an economic perspective). And guess what? It worked. House prices skyrocketed because they forced demand when they already knew theres not enough houses currently. But the numbers are out: Australia avoided a technical recession literally because of immigration. That's a lot better than mass unemployment. But the big question you should be mad at is why do politicians allow housing supply to be so low? Why are skilled tradies from developed countries(US,UK,Europe, Japan) not being prioritised when we're in a housing crisis? Why are REAs allowed to inflate prices for the benefit of the seller and themselves? Why is negative gearing allowed? Australia is the 6th LARGEST country by land mass with an absurdly tiny population compared to size. It's an absolute joke that we have a housing crisis. When neighbouring Indonesia with a smaller land mass and a whopping 278 MILLION people don't have issues with housing. It only shows how corrupt Australia is. They would rather allow a cost of living crisis, housing crisis, homelessness crisis and now crime is rising so fast than actually fix the housing crisis. You do that but disincentivising property investment, you make housing affordable to all first home buyers, you speed up land title release, you deny NIMBYs and their nonsensical queries against social housing on their suburbs. Stop making property ownership a game. That's how you fix shelter, a basic right

Australian housing is overpriced and way laden under debt. The bubble has been brewing for decades, and most people assume the highest price sold for a property applies to all properties in the area. It's this thinking plus real estate agents encouraging such thoughts that drive the prices. Supply and demand, fair enough, but the psychology of people has been so engrained with the highest price thinking it's quite psychologically sick. Australia, the bubble is here.

analysis has shown that housing creation is directly connected to the profitability of the land bankers. they don't release build houses or build more houses unless the current ones meet levels of profitability. protecting their investment and maximizing profits. so if houses are not being built it's because the demand is not meeting this requirement. all this crap about incentivising more housing is useless unless this dynamic is broken. but then again the government does not want to break this dynamic as it would put huge downward pressure on house prices. and they would be voted out. there is no easy solution. I expect a minority government next election as that the only way common sense over greed is likely to float to the surface.

Great video! For 2024, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.

I am a 59 yr old single women who works 38-45 hrs a week in retail paying 75% of my income for rent. I am working just to put a roof over my head . Where on the Gold Coast can I find a rental that is only 30% of my income.? I couldn’t get a room for that and here they are saying people are struggling paying a third of their income? I wish!

I'm all for skilled workers coming to Australia, but if you ask anyone in the trades, these workers are not skilled mate. Not only are they unskilled and provide poor workmanship, they undercut your local mum and dad businesses (because they're happy to make pennies for the work) and drive them out of the market. Disgusting what is happening to this country, it's not what it once was.

The longer this rental crisis remains, the more people will find themselves in need of social housing, making that 100,000 figure quoted far larger by the time they get around to actually building the homes. I feel for the students who come the Australia (Melbourne specifically) and expect to live comfortably working as a barista for 25 hours a week.

9:40: It's pretty mental that housing has increased in price by 68% in Brisbane, yet the "market" has responded by REDUCING supply. Mental hey? That's a broken market system.

That place in Sydney is an absolute shocker and disgraceful of owners - pure greed

Hi there! Thank you for putting out this video! I can attest to what you have to said in this video. I was there some time around 2015, and someone told me that the rent is going out of control. I really appreciate someone telling me that advice.

Can’t move until I find another place to live. I’m ok atm, but eventually I’ll have to move. It’s only going to get worse.

The strange thing is when i go to the shops I'm not sure if I'm living in Australia or the Middle East

I can't afford the next couple of years and you want me to think longer than a decade?

I'm not Australian, but you guys are not wrong to limit immigration. That is not a comment about immigrants, but a recognition of how your economy works. Coal exports, iron ore exports, LNG exports, and food exports are about 30 percent of your economy. You enjoy a high standard of living to a large degree because the ratio of easy to sell natural resources to population is high. If you double your population iron ore reserves stay the same. Australia msyybe able to keep growing the pie so that living standards remain the same or increase, but it will be mucn more difficult than getting rich off the Pilbara.

I am now paying 95% of my income in rent alone. I cant afford to move, as rent eats any income that would go towards saving for bond and moving costs. Regardless, I would struggle to find a rental anyway with my family size (2 Adults, 4 kids) and the current rental competition. Shits real, mentally and financially draining beyond belief.

I rented my last place, for 14 years.. in that time rent went up 100 dollars (actually it was 90, but big round numbers) 14 years ... 90 dollars. Ive been at the current house for 4.5 years and the rent has gone up 450 dollars. Greed is the only explanation. Real estate agents and landlords are the new lawyers.... who belong at the bottom of the ocean in large numbers.

As an experienced tenant and an experienced landlord, I will put forward a bit of defence for landlords. Between the tenant and landlord is the real estate agent. Note how silent this group has been through this catastrophe. I would say straight up that greedy real estate agents are what creates greedy landlords

Regarding the issue of building new homes, many are holding off on building due to the highly publicised insolvency of large building companies over the past couple of years, coupled with highly publicised and common defects on new builds. People are scared to put down their deposits as they feel they might never get the house they're paying for, or if they do, it will have significant issues that will cost them more to fix.

Great video, but I was surprised by the abrupt ending! Would love to see this topic expanded on more

Most migrants are students not trades people. That's half the problem

In the 40’s Australia had a housing/rental/homeless crisis, the Australian government at the time estimated a shortage of 200 000 dwellings, with another 82 000 considered unfit for habitation and 155 000 to be of poor quality. Relying on the private construction industry didn’t work then and cant be our only serious option now.

ITS TERRIBLE IN THE US TOO!!

We are a family of 4 in QLD living in a 1brd studio apartment that has an outside bathroom, no laundry and a sink for a kitchen. Its all we could afford and that is 450 a week. Our kids are young but growing fast and we need to move into a bigger place, but open home after open home our hopes are diminishing. We didnt want to renew our lease here and im lucky to have a roof to call home, but the 400 dollars used to get a beautiful 3-4 bedroom family home and now it gets you nothing. We always said accepting this rental was until we could find something more suitable but it feels like it's only getting worse.

Good research and well articulated

I have never seen it so bad, im 43 and rented all my life and dont know where i will be in a few years

There are allegedly many more vacant homes than the official number; kept vacant to limit supply and increase prices. It should be made illegal to own a home that isn’t occupied at least 10 months of the year, with extreme repercussions for people that break that law

Foreign education is Australia's second biggest export after iron ore. Just like any industry; it has externalities. It should be possible to offer more online education, but the fact is many students want to come to Australia because the quality of life and environment is high.

You can get skilled trade workers from Canada. There's no shortage here according to every domestic forum I've read. The government just says it because they want an excuse to import warm bodies. But why would anybody from Canada want to move to Australia to face all the exact same issues present in Canada.

Australia is so screwed the prices of houses have the go down they are not worth half the price they say they are. It’s no the supply it the money taxpayers are giving the landlords who are paying less then rent prices for a house at the end of the day the negative gearing has to stop it’s so stupid I other countries have it and have houses for thousands or dollars like car prices here in Australia 🇦🇺 such a joke

Blame Labor for 680,000 immigrants last year. Also foreign investment.

I'm nearing my mid 20's. I cant find a job, despite applying to 25 - 50 / week. I dont dream of having a home. Too unrealistic. Hundreds of thousands of foreigners swarmed my suburb that I grew up in. I am now an outsider, and therefore I do not, and will never owe anyone anything.

There are no skilled laborers migrating from Somalia or Afghanistan. Migration needs to be limited a lot more

Australia is a joke , 160,000 immigrants per year target this is a government/s issue, Paulin was right and no one listened. Proud non Australian resident cheaper to get paid in AUD and pay the extra tax then live in Australia 😂

As a mum of young children I am so concerned what will be available for opportunities for the next generation. I see first home buyers trying to get into the property Market in Melbourne saving money to buy home and the property prices increasing faster than what they are able to save. It’s more common for parents to boost deposits to allow entry to the property market. Affordable housing needs to be addressed urgently to avoid pricing out people out of housing.

I actually feel physcially sick and am having an anxiety response to watching this content. I recently had a housemate move out and was faced with the rental market and realised how bad it was. I was lucky enought that i was able to get a replacement and stay in my current place (with a huge rental increase) but there were a few months where my mental health was in full blown crisis mode and i was not copying with it well. I cant even imagine the amount of people who are forced onto the streets and what they are going through. My job also deals with people who are in fiancial hardship and i hear about this a lot as well, i ended up moving into a different department because i was struggling hearing about it.

It's way too expansive in Perth, I live with my parents in a rental house for 10+ years and the rental crisis is such a disaster

This is by far the most researched video I've seen on this topic. Awesome work dude!

REAL vacancies are higher. 25% of Melb Docklands are vacant. 50% of many coastal towns are fking “holiday” homes used a few weeks ago year & Neg Geared. “Property Investors” got $41Billion rebates in 2023.

This is not making sense, if there is lines for rentals then you don’t have a pricing issue you have a inventory issue

Developers/Builders are already paying a ridiculous $30,000 Levy in most Sydney Councils for a small Dual Occupancy Development + increasing building costs. Most builders are actually doing it tough with high materials costs, holding costs etc. ATM on current housing valuations there are no profits if you buy develop and sell. There have never been more builders going bust as seen the past 24 months. Where is the incentive for an increase in the supply of housing ? and by the way, we can't just rely on big corporate builders to satisfy the housing needs. The smaller builder market is a great contributor and should be acknowledged and incentivized too in order to meet the needs of the current housing crisis which will only get worse if ignored!

My wife and I own an investment property in Sydney and a house that my family live in outside of Sydney. The only reason we raised the rent on the investment property was because of interest rates, we kept the rent price down for our tenant as long as we could but it gets to a point were we end up struggling.

Crazy times! Really great sharing my dear friend❤️. Hope you have a happy and healthy week. 👍👍👍👍

Amazing article thank you . NEVER EVER at my age did I ever imagine our great country would be the state it’s in now. Melbourne is an absolute disaster & going down the drain at a rapid rate.

Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 17k in last month 2024.

Urban migration also continues to be a problem for Australia, the government needs to find a way to incentive a rural migration trend to help declining and suffering rural towns, especially in the new digital world people and mainly the companies that employ them no longer need their staff to be based in major cities and incentives could be given to those companies that move office based employment out of major cities and to rural communities that are struggling with employment options and the resulting population decline

Really wondering what the tipping point will be. When rich people realize they can't squeeze any more money out of us

This video was recommended to through a video about an Immigrant without PR buying a home. Really sums up the issue.

I stopped listening at 1.17 this crisis is a direct result of mass immigration most of it from India and other developing nations. No matter how much denial one wants to believe when you bring in a million which include incoming students without housing or services to cope, and for no rational purpose this is what happens - blaming supply or house building or anything else is gaslighting, and an insult to genuine Australians trying to find a place to live. To be more direct and brutal - this manufactured housing stress and mass immigration will end Australia.

Hope your stimulus checks were worth it. We were warned about this in 2020 by many economists but people chose to have temporary relief for long term pain.

House doubled with Howard bringing in the home buyers grant. Take away negative gearing and super benefits if you buy property.

Crazy how we have the exact SAME problems in Canada.

Its like the game Monopoly....and we all now how that ends .One person ( corporation ) owns it all and the bank....everyone else is struggling to continue jn the game.

no my friend im from greece and a tell you isnt 51% but 130% increase to the rent houses, for one house before the rent it was 350€ and now is 590-650€...and 2010 the average income was 900€ and until a few months ago the salarys it was 560€ , now 730€

Not always greedy landlords, the letting agents are the ones to blame

Fantastic report Hamish! It concisely explores the nuances and complexity of the factors at play in this drastic increase in price. That’s the kind of information our governments should rely on when making decisions to improve the situation. Congrats!

How much of the issue is due to ABnB? Do you think banning short term rental units is a solution, I see many other larger cities like NY are starting to ban short term rentals. Not that it's getting better but it might when it starts to come into effect.

I consider myself informed but had no idea about the student scam.

Where is the government stop the migration if the government can not match the house supply,

Theres actually a much uogher amount of vacant houses but they arent rentals because their "investment homes"

Every long term arrival places an immediate demand upon housing and other infrastructure. In the long run we benefit from their skills and labour, but in the short term they create a deficit in the supply of services and infrastructure. What is the pay-off timeframe for the average arrival? Knowing that will help us understand what is a sustainable rate of population growth.

This guys misses some big holes in the data.

Nearly all of this can be traced back to John Howard and the LNP halving the rate of capital gains. They should never be in charge again

I can’t believe you depicted the people who could no longer afford their mortgage and who had chewed through all their savings landing in a wheelie bin of rubbish once kicked off the cliff! So those who cannot afford housing are considered trash? Disgusting

Why the hell did the government let in so many immigrants, its just insane, l hope everyone votes them out at the next election

I just rented an apartment with my gf two weeks ago in Docklands, Melbourne. In the time seeking a place (3 weeks). The one we got had only 2 other aplications. And we inspected flats that had no applications at all. My gf's previous coworkers are realtors. I don't see the market like told in the video. People are doing everything to avoid paying extra in housing. Units and houses for sale for months or even years without applications. I guess you guys are going to see the rollercoaster diving soon.

This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!

I hate it here

It's worrying that big financial firms could own 40% or more of homes, squeezing out the middle class. Most folks should hold onto their homes if they can. I'm thinking of buying cheap houses in 2024 and maybe trying stocks too. When's the best time for stocks? Some say it's profitable, others say it's risky. Any advice?

I have a full time job and earn around $800 a week and spend $700 a week in rent which has been increased by $160+ in the last two years

Fantastic informative video! 👏

I have a theory that the Australian government/powers that be are trying thier damndest to create a caste system. Most new FOB migrants are coming from India and China, 2 countries that view how many people it is acceptable to live under the same 2 bedroom roof and they're right to privacy very differently to Australians. My theory would extend to a Indian finding a rental then have as many family/freinds live there as they deem confortable. In China its similar and the norm to have grandparents living with thier sons/daughters/grandchildren. I've seen first hand a huge Australia wide telecomunications company hire people for sales+complaints+changing account details, we were given 2 WEEKS for training but they taught us next to nothing about how to use thier multitude of programs/webportals, it was all about very basic manners and phone etiquette. When we started taking calls we had 2 staff to help the 30+ of us while we were not allowed to put the customer on hold and could only hang up if they started swearing or using slurs, after 2 days we were on our own essentially. It was a disaster. By week 3 at least half of us left, I needed the money so I quite quit until they fired me week 5. The only new employees willing to stay were all migrants who lose thier visas quickly if they aren't working a certian number of hours a week. We see these small tent towns popping up since Australians value our privacy even at the expense of creature comforts. I think tiny home/pod townships will be a reality soon enough. ps: Ofc I didn't mention the rich (local and foreign) buying real estate and leaving it vacant. Maybe we need a law that prooves the property is being used for a certian percentage of time a year or there is some kind a consequence. Housing is for being lived in, not to make money off of.