'Higher For Longer' Inflation To Upend Markets, Create Opportunities

'Higher For Longer' Inflation To Upend Markets, Create Opportunities | Tavi Costa

Рет қаралды 34,607

2 ай бұрын

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Recent inflation reports show that it's proving "sticky", stubbornly refusing to recede down to the target rates that central banks are shooting for.
But rather than simply staying sticky, could it actually start surging again?
Today's guest expert thinks it could due to growing global economic imbalances.
If that happens, what will the implications be?
And can investors to proactively today to prepare?
For answers, we turn to macro and commodities expert Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital.
Follow Tavi at www.crescat.net/
#inflation #interestrates #commodities
_____________________________________________
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@adam.taggart 2 ай бұрын

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@bretgreen5314 2 ай бұрын

Tavi Costa is great. Adam keeps raising the bar with these interviews.

@chrism5859 2 ай бұрын

I find the quality of these interviews and the thoughtful, knowledgeable discussion to be very valuable. The nearest experience I’ve had is being on college campuses and listening to on-stage interviews of experts in their field. Not everything they thought would happen always played out, but it certainly made you think. These videos challenge me to think about the macro economic environment and I appreciate the time Mr. Taggert, his team and guests put into bringing these discussions to us.

@martinz6445 2 ай бұрын

Lack of geologists and mining engineers because the remote isolated nature of mining cannot compete with the jobs in the major cities, I was a mining engineer and then switched to working in manufacturing close home in the city. If mining pays well like oil & gas then they will find workers easily, but the low commodity prices is punishing mining companies and their shareholders

@ImRickSanchez 2 ай бұрын

Good info. Thank you

@showandtell4265 2 ай бұрын

If u look at old exploration reports from 1980s... Senior geos had a day rate of $400 juniors $300. That rate has not changed in 40 years. Aurora geoscience for example was offering a day rate in the $200s CAD a few years back comically.... To work in the sub artic.

@edyochum6916 2 ай бұрын

Great guest, bring em' back!

@ichrisone 2 ай бұрын

Oil and gas pays rubbish too. Most of the talent has left that industry too.

@mattanderson6672 2 ай бұрын

Fantastic guest! Always a massive and of charts and solid analysis Thanks for having Tavi on

@harpoen7358 2 ай бұрын

Ravi Costa is a great macro analist to listen to. He never disappoints

@BlueWaterSTAX 2 ай бұрын

Excellent information guys. Thanks for having Tavi on the channel Adam. 100k subscribers in no time 👍

@jacobwhite9567 2 ай бұрын

I’m a doc and when I was in training, found out a visit was $640. I asked multiple admin folks how that bill was generated- no one could give me a straight answer. The most honest person said “back pocket calculation and to make sure the bill is higher than what the insurances are paying to keep upward pressure on prices”

@stephenshearon6420 2 ай бұрын

Thanks. Not what we want to hear, but appreciate the information.

@rickyr678 2 ай бұрын

Tavi is amazing. Just brilliant.

@MaddieBr 2 ай бұрын

Very impressed by his last comment. I completely agree with his mindset.

@pr1mu 2 ай бұрын

I was a bit early joining crescat (caught the miner dip) but have been happy with the team and overall plan.

@itzfifson6140 2 ай бұрын

Tavi is a pro been following his ideas for a long time

@taratong9074 2 ай бұрын

Your interviews are wonderful! I look forward to hearing them daily!

@omanyquestions5135 2 ай бұрын

Great interview.

@jasonblundell6226 2 ай бұрын

Tavi has an excellent guest. Thanks tavi for your ideas and articulate expressions on commodities. Thank you

@bydarkwaters2055 2 ай бұрын

Taggart for President 2024

@dave5905 2 ай бұрын

You've gotta be a crooked old billionaire. Adam is too nice, too young, too poor.

@Bltnetwork 2 ай бұрын

Yes, Tavi’s charts are awesome!

@martinross6416 2 ай бұрын

Adam is excellent.

@4000angels 2 ай бұрын

Outstanding interview as always. Thank you, Adam!

@standinginthegap7118 2 ай бұрын

Great show Adam

@timgagnon5424 2 ай бұрын

Great guest and info Adam, how have we not seen Mr. Costa before!

@bitcoinwallet-tj5ue 2 ай бұрын

So glad I found you again👍

@BatmanBoss 2 ай бұрын

Tavi 🥇

@margator1036 2 ай бұрын

QE without calling it QE, sort of like removing food and energy from inflation reports.

@michaeljacobs4546 2 ай бұрын

Another analogy is calling pork kosher after a Rabii blesses it (or putting lipstick on a p[ig?) 🥓🐷✡

@michaeljacobs4546 2 ай бұрын

And that rabii and Jay Powell is what we would call a scheister 💩

@vincent_a4564 2 ай бұрын

Another extraordinarily intelligent guest who may eventually be right for a very short period of time someday maybe.

@artsanchez9338 2 ай бұрын

Adam is very sharp 😊

@robertratz5305 2 ай бұрын

Thanks! Great interview.

@adam.taggart 2 ай бұрын

Thank you very much -- so glad you enjoyed it!

@trevordowney6425 2 ай бұрын

Tavi lookin slick for Thoughtful Money.

@infraaa_ 2 ай бұрын

Absolutely love Tavi. I'd recommend you get Luke Gromen on. I think his voice is very relevant given the debt/fiscal cliff we find ourselves at (well off, actually)

@detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 ай бұрын

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

@michaeljacobs4546 2 ай бұрын

Rightaroo the Fed is not as restrictive as they claim - looking to cut with sticky inflation and OK economy, stalling QE and just had a year of closet QE to the banks.

@jmcmob608 2 ай бұрын

Thank you very much...

@brandonjuarez1918 2 ай бұрын

Great video Adam. Tavi has some amazing views of the stock market. Hope to see him again on the show. Keep up the great work Adam! Take care

@keithcourtney5883 2 ай бұрын

I like the concept of currency deflation being the real big short...well said.

@jonv1496 2 ай бұрын

Nice show today @Menlobear

@lilsleepy1648 2 ай бұрын

Get those likes up 👍

@briancutsinger 2 ай бұрын

Great Tavi!🌞

@FreeSpeech4All 2 ай бұрын

Tavi's not wrong, but like Peter Schiff he's been a broken record for a decade or so now and that has cost people following him a TON of money as commodities and miners have gone from "cheap" to "massively diluted into abject poverty".

@jimscherer8072 2 ай бұрын

Better to be 10 years early than one day late

@jeffreygoss8109 2 ай бұрын

I don’t think they can go much lower so I think they are an asymmetric investment. Of course they could go bankrupt . But, yeah the miners have been terrible compared to the S&P, markets are derivative of human nature so they aren’t always logical.

@FreeSpeech4All 2 ай бұрын

@@jeffreygoss8109 Agree. I don't think they can go much lower... just like I thought in 2023 when I added to my shares... and in 2022 when I averaged down then too. 😄 We do FINALLY seem to be kicking back up though. 🤞

@MichaelHarrington17 2 ай бұрын

Tavi offers lots of valuable insights, especially concerning relative valuations across sectors. I see some caveats with the inflation thesis he offers, which is largely based on cost-push pressures. There are two assumptions necessary to this inflation scenario: an accommodating central bank stance, and the overhanging debt deflationary not causing recessionary price resets in asset and product markets. I could see relative price changes which may not be reflected in general price levels. One point I would raise is whether house prices push price inflation or monetary easing causes currency depreciation. The former would cause economic slowdowns as credit tightens, while the latter would lead to higher real asset prices and money velocity as people seek to protect their wealth from depreciation. RE is a hedge against inflation, but fundamental values have been outrun.

@josephevans6169 2 ай бұрын

Tavi pleasee come back

@margator1036 2 ай бұрын

If the money that went into digital assets went into gold would gold be $100, 000 per Oz.? Is the devaluation of the dollar relative to gold being purposely disguised? Gold, the real money, can't be printed or made by a computer entry.

@florianhladik1093 2 ай бұрын

Great non financial investment suggestion!

@artsanchez9338 2 ай бұрын

Your a genius 😮

@peterbedford2610 2 ай бұрын

Look at virtually every market... Inflation is roaring back.

@mikepodorski4272 2 ай бұрын

The thing that scares me about commodity prices is slow growth and demographics. If China specifically stops consuming commodities as it had, it will dramatically effect demand.

@BlueWaterSTAX 2 ай бұрын

Central Banks will continue buying record amounts of Gold

@mattbrown3074 2 ай бұрын

I have a topic request regarding the huge and growing federal deficit. So many of the guests speak that it is unsustainable and will essentially lead to one or two outcomes. Either a) a massive meltdown like the GFC or even worse armageddon, or b) the Japanification of the USA markets, slower growth and yield curve controls. But what is the actual argument that a Jerome Powell or the Federal Reserves establishment would use to counter these claimed outcomes. Maybe get a J. Powell type guest on the channel to give the optimistic side of the story?

@nodanlorac 2 ай бұрын

It's like the perfumes. You present the same costly one to someone else with a cheap price, she won't buy it. If it's cheap, it worth nothing. Great interview, great knowledge.

@brucemoose926 2 ай бұрын

Adam, would you please discuss fixed indexed annuities on your show? What are the pros and cons?

@fluffyclucks7320 2 ай бұрын

Why do people keep saying Japan IS cheap? It WAS relatively cheap for years. But now, judging by a CAPE of about 28 on the Nikkei 225 and a very high market cap to GDP ratio that is no longer true. It is actually one of the most expensive world markets now. I would add that Japan is rife with zombie companies, now making up 17.1% of all companies there, and that in US dollars, Japan's GDP has been roughly flat for decades. Its government is also very heavily indebted as are its corporations overall, and the population is declining. Furthermore, its productivity now ranks among the very lowest of OECD countries. People who keep reiterating the out of date narrative that "Japan is cheap" have obviously not looked into these important details. Lastly, and just to drill it home, the PER of the S&P 500 is 24.93, the PER of the Nasdaq 100 is 29.35 and the PER of the Nikkei 225 is 28.89.

@randy74989 2 ай бұрын

The Federal Reserve's current mantra is "high for longer." They are not planning to cut interest rates anytime soon, with some experts predicting that it may happen in June, while others suggest July. One can track the 2-year Treasury rate versus the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), and currently, the 2-year rate is approximately 100 basis points lower than the FFR. Therefore, the Fed could potentially lower rates by 100 basis points based on data. Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated that the Fed's decisions are "data dependent." The PCE deflator is unlikely to decrease until inflation in housing-related expenses like Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) and Services costs are brought under control. However, the average person is more concerned about everyday expenses like food, gasoline, utilities, insurance, property taxes, and home ownership. The Fed, on the other hand, is focused on data and may not take into account these expenses.

@jeffreygoss8109 2 ай бұрын

I think they will cut them going into the election as a political favor to boost the economy.

@glowwurm9365 2 ай бұрын

Love his work,, posts a lot of stuff on X and i follow him reguarly...

@chrism5859 2 ай бұрын

In my somewhat uneducated opinion (just enough to be dangerous) there is a stronger move into crypto currencies to protect wealth than we can measure vs. what would have flowed into commodities in past decades.. Cryptos simply didn’t exist, and options to run to commodities for protection were pretty standard.. When considering retail investors, and even investment banks, there is only so much money to go around. Nobody knows how much money has been redirected into crypto options but I am of the firm belief that it is enough to keep gold and silver prices suppressed longer than expected. I see no other root cause for this.

@BlueWaterSTAX 2 ай бұрын

There has been a cleverly conceived psychological operation to convince the public that BLOCKCHAIN is currency. While Central Banks buy record amounts of GOLD

@10percentforthebigdementedguy 2 ай бұрын

Adam, could you do time stamps, please? 🙏🏻

@colinkerley2683 2 ай бұрын

Ask Alfonso Peccatiello why they don’t have gold allocations.

@wread1982 2 ай бұрын

Won’t hurt the market any 😊

@cairns-holiday-homes 2 ай бұрын

Central banks do not have a great record on gold purchases and sales. They bought a lot in the early 1980s (the price peaked in 1980) and then sold a large amount as the price was bottoming around 2000-01. They have been buying every year since 2010 and now shifted into overdrive. This may not end well.

@jerettzaleski4388 2 ай бұрын

If the big short is debasement of the currency, then best way to play that is long Bitcoin, correct? Bitcoin has proven to be the best performing asset class versus gold, stocks, real estate, etc when debasement of the currency occurs.

@StockGenius152 2 ай бұрын

🚀🚀🚀🌙

@tommygrubbs2053 2 ай бұрын

Adam, what about us young investors that don’t have the necessary capital to hire a good financial advisor?

@SzymonStas 2 ай бұрын

We invest in ourselves until we make the kind of money that allows us to play the game.

@merlinwizard1000 2 ай бұрын

2nd, 26 March 2024

@brunokupka 2 ай бұрын

Good job Tavi. Let’s get it, ready for the vampire apocalypse, got silver?

@INSANEDOMINANCE 2 ай бұрын

Inflation is gonna inch higher and stay higher for longer. As prices of homes come down and their availability increases. Same with vehicles. Employment is still intact so will the market contributions.

@coolrecursion 2 ай бұрын

David Hunter and George Robertson been right about this market. Can you please drop your regular bears and bring them two on your show.

@Tential1 2 ай бұрын

21:00 I guess Microsoft 20% net income cagr is a joke? People act like valuations are ALWAYS a bubble. Sometimes, things have a high pe, because they have a high growth rate. We never said high pe is blanket bad, but people treat it this way. It's intellectually dishonest, and I am irritated how many people in finance give half truth answers to justify their preconceived beliefs, when even the full basic facts prove them wrong.

@holdenc3082 2 ай бұрын

Meanwhile stocks knocking on the door of another record high after two year of bears on this channel and its previous iteration.

@user-qs1jt3hc8f 2 ай бұрын

Gold will explode high like in the '30s, '70s, '00s starting in 2030s

@BlueWaterSTAX 2 ай бұрын

Already exploding 😂

@user-qs1jt3hc8f 2 ай бұрын

@@BlueWaterSTAX I hope so but could be a bull trap or maybe the super trend just started in 2020 till 2030

@elonmuskox4305 2 ай бұрын

It's not immigration. It's migration. A mass of people moving from low resource areas to high resource areas. Immigration is a process that includes vetting the arrivals.

@Jalleur14325 2 ай бұрын

Interesting insights. Sadly commodities will mean more environmental destruction, as basically pretty much all the wealth ever accumulated has come out of natural resources. I know we live now in the services and tech era but the basics of life can't be denied. We have become accustomed to such a high consumption, fluid lifestyle, hopping from pillar to post, and other countries seem to want to copy that high environmental footprint model. I cannot see how natural resrouces won't get more expensive especially as we have more and more people populating this earth. A scary thought that we are not that far from 10b in the next decade or so. Some regions are growing at exponential rates. I guess the game will be up when planet earth simply cannot sustain more damage. A pessimistic view but I can't help but feel that humans are messing so much with basic ecosystems (note in Nevada the massive mining project that will destroy and pollute wilderness for lithium), that we will be lucky to get to 2100 the way things are going. I personally see two possibilities. First is that humans can find ways to survive in an increasingly depleted ecosystem, but fighting and scrapping over land and resources, and in a kind of urban hell where we ni longer hear bees or birds, and it's just humans, buildings, concrete metal and tech. OR - the jet stream collapses and we are wiped out. Not that wild when you start to read up on ecology. A few people are now starting to say that the solution to climate change isn't just to mine and mine to try and create an inferior replacement to the energy density of fossil fuels (pretty much impossible to do), but rather we need to consume less and more efficiently (i.e scale back industrial civilisation for the sake of life on earth). We've already lost frightening numbers of species and it scares me to think the idea seems to be that we will hand pollinate our crops once we've snuffed out the bees.

@brunokupka 2 ай бұрын

So far as I am in the middle of the interview and no one has mentioned bitcoin stealing gold .

@margator1036 2 ай бұрын

Higher for longer and growth-flation.

@ask_why000 2 ай бұрын

10:35 Could also lead to societal and economic collapse.

@SamWhitlock 2 ай бұрын

Without GDI increasing, all high commodity prices do is take money away from the consumer to put to unproductive uses (filling up at the pump). I don't know where he thinks the extra income will come in to be inflationary...

@davidsmind 2 ай бұрын

Emerging markets get their resources from the established markets. "Inflation" doesn't help emerging markets. It puts a race to the bottom on their workforce and makes it nearly impossible to live in any industrial sector.

@Tential1 2 ай бұрын

22:15 if we kept trying things that didn't work.... Humanity would never progress. These people never learn.

@vincentmurphy9252 2 ай бұрын

Nobody bows future but why does everyone think Feds just cuts that is over now - do not be surprised to see high rates soon

@michaeljacobs4546 2 ай бұрын

Late last year when the crackhead walking-deads came back to the markets on Fed cut hysteria, increased my exposure to gold and commodities and decreased to long term Treasuries and growth stocks, and I am more pleased with this every day.

@michaeljacobs4546 2 ай бұрын

Rather than bitcoin just spend your paycheck on lotto and draftkings 🤑☣