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In my latest video titled "History was JUST made," we delve into a significant and rare market event that has just unfolded. We start by examining the Russell 2000 (RTY) on a weekly timeframe, noting the extreme price compression that signaled potential explosive moves. The Bollinger Bands contraction led to an incredible breakout, with the Russell 2000 closing at a 4.4 standard deviation from its 50-day moving average. This historic event marks the first time any major U.S. index has reached such an extreme level.
Using the Price Percent Oscillator (PPO), I illustrate the extent of this move and discuss historical precedents during past Federal Reserve rate tightening cycles. We consider whether recent movements are driven by expectations of rate cuts or a short squeeze by large traders exiting positions.
I highlight the unusual rise in implied volatility alongside price action, cautioning against chasing the market at these elevated levels. We compare the behavior of other indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and their implied volatility trends. I also point out key gamma levels and the significant daily expected move for the IWM, noting its implications for near-term market action.
Additionally, I review the performance of regional banks and biotech names, which have shown substantial runs, contributing to overall market momentum. Finally, we touch on upcoming economic data releases and earnings reports that could influence market behavior in the short term.
This episode is packed with insights and detailed technical analysis to help you navigate these unprecedented market conditions. Stay tuned for more updates and stay cautious in these volatile times.
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a professional investment advisor, nor do I claim to be. All my videos are for entertainment and educational purposes only. This is not trading advice. I am wrong all the time. Everything you watch on my channel is my opinion. Links included in this description might be affiliate links. If you purchase a product or service with the links that I provide I may receive a small commission. There is no additional charge to you! Thank you for supporting my channel :)
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