Well, for me the Garmin predictions have been scarily good! In the last month, it gave me a 44:01 prediction for a 10k and I raced it in 44:03, while training for a HM. AND for that, Garmin predicted 1:40:11 that morning and I finished 1:40:04.

Awesome video, dude! Really great content here -instant new sub! Yeah, my Garmin watch clearly doesn’t know I’m hitting a Boston qualifier this weekend! 😂 👏👍

really enjoyed this experiment and even more when you run locally, Love to do some track session, miss them alot since my move to Tewkesbury from the south East.

Great video. Great concept (I haven't seen anyone else do a Garmin Race Predictor video). Thanks for sharing! @13:40. I'm in the minority; I think it's better for the VO2 Max to go up slowly and steady than to directly train for it by forgoing endurance. Anyone can have a short, intense session and see steady Vo2 Max increases but I'm also a believer in sustained endurance; and believe it's more important than short, hard bouts. And yes, I too have gotten those V02 Max decreases. Frustrating.

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I think that race predictor work the best if you are doing mostly just running and doing it with chest strap and preferably using their workouts as training. Their suggested daily workouts put you on wide area of paces so that it can listen your heart rate and better predict your times. Also it must be mentioned that if you run mostly short distances like 5k-10k, you cannot expect to get good estimation for marathon. That is why it would be good to set your races in calendar and even better if you could set your goal pace so that daily suggested workout can suggest you workouts that will prepare you for that race.

Great video, thanks. I feel like I should try smashing a half marathon

ive had my garmin about 10 months, managed to beat it by one minute doing a 10k in july, and then got within 20 seconds for my half marathon a couple of weeks ago, very cool feature god knows how they work it out very clever

Hello. I discover your channel 😊 . Great one and really interesting. I subscriebe. Hello from Switzerland 😊

My Garmin has so high predictions - it predicted 1:35:30 for my half and I run 1:41:21 (which I was very happy about!), this weekend I am going to make a debut on the marathon, my goal is 3:45:00, but Garmin says "yeah, 3:29:49 is possible man"

During my training for this weekend’s Amsterdam 1/2 Marathon I ran the London 10,000 10km race on 24th September - I ran 47:23, which as a 70 year-old runner gave my a AGP score of 75.45 - the equivalent time for this score over the 1/2 Marathon distance is 1:44:24, and the predicted time per Garmin Connect is 1:44:09. I ran 1:45:16 at Cambridge earlier in the year, and have always considered my best race distances were 10 miles and 1/2 Marathon (my PB for the latter is 76:25), so, having recently knocked 70 seconds off my 10km time from this year’s London Winter Run, I would be looking to run under 1:44 on Sunday - I plan to run in the range 7:50 to 8:00 per mile which would give me a finish time of between 1:42:45 and 1:44:59 - I’ll let you know how I get on!

Great video mate. What do you think of the arm heart rate monitor is it as accurate as a chest strap?

I was interested in Garmin’s race predictor when I got my watch a little over a month ago. My race predictor said that I could complete a 5K in 19:59. I decided to run a 5K and did it in exactly 19:59. It was my first 5K under 20 minutes. Weirdly accurate.

It took wearing my Garmin watch for 10 months before it started predicting a 10k time as fast as I did a 10k right after I got the watch. It's currently predicting a 5k time that might be faster than I can do. I don't do a lot of running - mostly cycling - so I very rarely put the race predictions to the test.

Very interesting. Don't know what Garmin calculates with. Our 'scores' are very much alike. My VO2 max is also 58 and my current LTH is 4:04 / 165 BPM. But my predictions are very different. 5K: 17:43 / 10K: 36:45 / HM: 1:21:15 / M: 2:49:43. Since I do not race I do not know if the predictions are close to what I can do. But I'm planning to do a parkrun in the nearby future. I'm using a Fenix 5X Plus and I'm 49 years old.

That's scarily good to see everyone mentioning how accurate it is, considering my case it completely deviate from the predictor. My recent FM is 3:48:57, while Garmin predicts it 3:00:10.

The fact that you have a prediction alters the ball game completely. Running is 25% training and 75% mental.

I use Lactate Zones for training and my Garmin also estimates my race times 99% correctly, even the marathon time is only 5seconds off which is crazy. VO2max stuck at 62 all year tho 😅

Using garmin FR965. Started training in this sport 6 months ago. My vo2max is 50 on garmin. Surprise it is 50 on lab also. 🎉😊

Is it the polar verity sense optical sensor you use? And in that case, does it update your auto detected lthr on your garmin? Thanks!

I'm doing Garmin's DSW for about 4 months. I had the first race of this season yesterday, a 10k, intermediate training until next HM. Garmin predicted a pace of 4:28/km. Real race pace 4:18/km (43min 08 sec PB) ...so pretty close. I could put the difference on race shoes..vaporfly nex % :). ended with some Stamina in tank according to garmin, but I didn't dare to push the pace lower, last km I ran at 4:05/km...180HR (46 years old ;)

My garmin predictions are pretty good! It says 5k 19:40 did it in 19:33 and yesterday i ran an half marathon prediction was 1:31:47 and i did it in 1:29:51. So i can really depend on it when i start a raceday!

I ran my first marathon a couple days ago. My Garmin said I would run a 3:07:21 and I ran a 3:07:38. 17 seconds difference over a distance of 42k is insane, especially considering I only got the watch a couple weeks before the race.

I feel like the efficacy of the estimates becomes a bit washy when you get towards the extremes. As an example, I am not particularly fit for a runner (obese in fact with a VO2max around 40) and for a 10k last year it predicted around 1:07. I managed 1:00:30 and was quite pleased with the result, but it was at the cost of some insane stats and pushing way harder than garmin would probably expect any sane person to push (average HR over 190 with peak around 208)

My Garmin has me much slower: Garmin predicts 39:43 10km, 1:27 half. Last weekend I ran 36:23, and July I ran 1:19

Beaten garmin!!! Garmin said 3:57, i finished the marathon at 3:49 🎉❤

In college my garmin always predicted my 5k to be like 17:30 even though in my XC 8k’s I would split low 16’s and then run 3k more. I was even wearing my watch lol

With my old garmin (935) the predicted times would always be way too fast. Now with the 965 i've got the opposite problem. Ran a 10k pb this summer in 36.36. After the race the prediction was 40.11. Same thing after running a hm pb. That time the watch gave me an estimation 2 min slower than what i just ran. My take is that these are just estimations and you should think what is reasonable based on what paces you've managed on intervals and long runs.

For 5Ks and 10Ks my Garmin is usually right on point, to the second even, quite amazing. For longer distances, it's been ways off sometimes.

Garmin gives me 18m 21s for the 5k. Reality? About a minute more. But at the longer distances, it gave me 3h 35m for the marathon. I ran it in 3h 30m. Now im not doing long runs, but its giving me a 3h 27 marathon. The reality: i couldnt run a marathon tomorrow! If i did, it would involve walkies. Id be lucky to break 4.

I find it to be way off. Started running 5 months ago & have been quite consistent. My first 5K was 35min and it predicted to be 28min. Second 5K was 25min & it predicted 27min. My last 5K was 21:25 and it predicted 23:30. My 10k is currently predicted at 53min but ran 49min during my threshold training & I was not 100% pushing.

I ran a 1:25:52 half marathon while Garmin predicted a 1:28:xx, even after my race it still predicts a 1:28:57. Pretty much useless if you ask me. I have tested Stryd for around 6 months, and it was much more accurate.

I run today half marathon 2.02, garmin predicted 1.58. I tried to run with pace 5.40(even slower than predicton) , but last kilometers where hard for me. Weather was perfect...

To be honest I kinda feel intimidated by wy race predictions. It says I could run a 5k in around 25mins, but my current threshold is around the 5:40/km mark. Don't know how I would sustain an even faster pace for 25 minutes. Halfamarathon prediction is at 2:01, which would be 9min faster than my current pb. Feels kinda hard to believe that, even if i'm very active and know what I'm capable of.

how to get the lactate threshold pace my fr 255 doesnt have it

What Garmin watch model is this?

Not. My watch says I would run a 5K in 26 minutes, but I ran an easy 22 min a few weeks back and have only been training better since.

I got my Garmin 1 week ago, it thinks I can run a 5k in 25 mins when my PB is 21 mins 🤷🏾‍♂️

I have oposite problem..Garmin thinks I can run all distances much faster than I can for 5k predicts 18:09,but my best time is 20:08 and for 10k predicts 38:24, but in reality I have 42:00..the same with longer distances. So I have to somehow unlock my real potencial I gues :D

my garmin prediction is a lot faster than i actually run, my fastest 5k so far has been 21:06 but garmin tells me i can do it in around 17:50. i haven't raced the other distances but in the marathon it predicted a 3:04:00 while i actually ran a 3:55:40. i only started running again after a few years off in july 2023 so maybe i'm still learning how to push myself with maximal effort (i always seem to have a

Considering all other metrics that i read on my Garmin, I can only see: Garmin has no idea of whats going on.

Garmin says marathon is 3:47 but i did a marathon 3:22... As more as zone 1 and zone 2 you do as much Garmin is of.

My 5k-10k times are pretty accurate. My 21k and 42k little optimistic. Im fast but lack endurance for 21k 42k. (5k 17:38 and 42k 3:23) With my 5k time i should be able to run sub 3 marathon but i lack endurance. Thats why garmins are wrong for either 5k or 42k.

Yeh garmin is a good guide but 2 weeks ago I looked at my marathon prediction and it gave me a 3:11, I then ran 2:54 so I don’t know what garmins looking at really 😂

All my race predictions are about 5% too optimistic than my actual race performance. I just run 5k PB in August for 19:40, garmin thinks I can run 18:33. Garmin says I can run 3:10 Marathon, I finished my first marathon last Sunday in 3:19. And it’s not like I run too fast at the beginning, my marathon is perfectly executed, I run the entire race almost even pace, pass the halfway point in 1:39:01. The last 2k I did slowed by 10s per K, I didn’t push hard since I know I made my goal of 320 already.

My Garmin predicted a 3:02:08 marathon when I ran 2:53:10. Then after I ran 2:53:10 it adjusted my prediction to 3:01:46...

my garmin is really really optimistic , is it trying to tell me i should dig deeper :')

ive run half marathon 2 weeks ago in amsterdam my race predictin was 2:27:45 and i ran 2:27:15 haha pretty accurate one for me

I beat my garmin prediction by something like 10 minutes and my predicted time still didn't change.

My Garmin race predictor has gone from 19:50 5k to a 20:36 5k in 3 weeks without any massive changes in my training

Garmin is doing the adult equivalent of what Lego does, when they put ‘Age 12+’ - guys obviously wanna attempt it when we’re only 6/7 yrs old. And when sat nav says ‘45 minutes to destination’ we wanna get there quicker. They’re helping you compete with yourself and get more endorphins 😅

6 month ago my garmin fenix 5 predicted my marathon 3:01 and I run 2:54 . meanwhile I run less and now the predictor says 3:08 ,my next marathon is in 2 months. I will update this comment 😅

Similar experience? No. I just checked and my HM prediction is over 12 minutes faster than my PB... which I ran last month.

My Garmin predicts that I can do a 5k in just over 19 minutes, and I have never in my life broken the 20 minute barrier! It's kinda frustrating! ^_^

Omg Cheltenham harriers track

Mine is shocking, predicted 10km is 35:54, ran a 10km in 31:53 not long ago. Also predicted 5km is 16:46 which I break on a weekly basis in thresholds😂😂 Don’t get me started on the predicted half marathon pace…

my garmin's predictions have been consistently too optimistic, by 10-15% :)

I can't get within 20 minutes of my half prediction in garmin

Which Garmin is that?

My race predictors are shit, it says 17:33 for a 5k, while I have run a 15:20 5k

You’re too kind - 3 minutes off on a HM time (especially one in the 1:30s) strikes me as being pretty far off. That’s about a 0:10/km difference in pace, which is not trivial. And the “I just ran it faster than you’re saying I can” is classic. I stopped paying attention to the Garmin numbers. They can sap morale when they tell you you’re “maintaining fitness” or your performance condition is “baseline” when you’re clearly getting fitter. One issue I see is that there is a massive lag in the numbers. So if you start training for a race, the numbers actually reflect where you were a few weeks ago. I think Garmin over-corrected vs. a few years ago, when their predictions were famously way too optimistic.

The only thing more off than race predictor is pacepro

my garmin thinks i can run an half in 1:36 after i just ran one in 1:51🤣

This is the shittiest functionality of garmin. It litterally doesn’t work. Currently my 5k is 16’47 and my 10k is 34’13 (updated last week and 2 weeks ago) but for garmin it was like 17’30 for 5k and like 38’ for 10k so yes that’s not accurate

My garmin think i can run a 17:30 5k while i’m running a 19:20😂

I just ran a half in 1:21:30 and my Garmin still predicts a 1:31:58 (it was predicting 1:36:XX at times).

Garmin predict is wrong hahah I ran 10k in 32'35 5k in 15'41 And the watch says 10k in 35'46 and 5k in 16'45 😂😂

‘So I think for beginners this is a reasonable thing to consider‘. Dude you just ran a 1:32 half marathon - you are a beginner?

Garmin seems to be a little dumb here🤣

I was 25 Minutes faster in a Marathon as my garmin 🤣

These are rookie numbers! my estimated times all are better. By LT tempo and vo2max are lower tho :D

you chew very fast, LOLOL