How Bayes Theorem works

  Рет қаралды 535,171

Brandon Rohrer

Brandon Rohrer

7 жыл бұрын

Part of the End-to-End Machine Learning School Course 191, Selected Models and Methods at e2eml.school/191
A walk through a couple of Bayesian inference examples.
The blog: brohrer.github.io/how_bayesian...
The slides: docs.google.com/presentation/...
Follow me for announcements: / _brohrer_

Пікірлер: 407
@phytasea
@phytasea 7 жыл бұрын
Wow best explanation and example ever I saw ^^ Fantastic.
@marciasola462
@marciasola462 5 жыл бұрын
Excellent
@romanemul1
@romanemul1 2 ай бұрын
exactly. These pacient disease examples were driving me nuts.
@richardgordon
@richardgordon 11 күн бұрын
Wow! One of the clearest explanations of Bayes Theorem I’ve come across!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 10 күн бұрын
Thanks!
@welcome33333
@welcome33333 7 жыл бұрын
this is by far the most accessible explanation of Bayes theorem. Well done Brandon!
@danrattray8884
@danrattray8884 7 жыл бұрын
Best explanation of Bayes theorem I have seen. Fantastic teaching.
@toufikhamdani5044
@toufikhamdani5044 Жыл бұрын
This is the most accessible explanation about Bayesian Inference. Thank you Brandon for the time taken to prepare this video. You rock !
@maxinelyu7875
@maxinelyu7875 7 жыл бұрын
when your teacher don't make sense, had to go through teaching videos online and came across this one... Lucky lucky lucky! Thank you Mr!
@nginfrared
@nginfrared 7 жыл бұрын
EXCELLENT EXPLANATION!!! I am learning graphical modeling and a lot of these concepts were a bit unclear to me. Examples given here are absolutely to the point and demystify a lot of concepts. Thank you and looking forward to more videos.
@shirshanyaroy287
@shirshanyaroy287 7 жыл бұрын
Brandon I just want to tell you that you are a fantastic teacher.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 7 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much Shirshanya. That is a huge compliment. I'm honored.
@shirshanyaroy287
@shirshanyaroy287 7 жыл бұрын
Please make more statistics videos! I have suggested your channel to my biostat teacher.
@nutrinogirl456
@nutrinogirl456 6 жыл бұрын
This is the first time I've felt like I've actually understood this... and it's such a simple concept! Thank you!
@syedmurtazaarshad3434
@syedmurtazaarshad3434 2 ай бұрын
Loved the analogies with real life philosophies, brilliant!
@rjvaal
@rjvaal 7 жыл бұрын
Thank you for this excellent explanation. You are a patient and well-spoken teacher.
@jithunniks
@jithunniks 5 жыл бұрын
The way you connect things with appropriate easy to examples...Amazing...
@theinsanify7802
@theinsanify7802 5 жыл бұрын
i don't know what to say, i'm a computer science student and i have never seen an explanation better than this ... thank you veryyyyy much
@razvanastrenie1455
@razvanastrenie1455 3 жыл бұрын
Excellent explanation ! This is the manner in which mathematics must be explained. With cases of practical applicability. Good job mr. Brandon !
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Razvan. I'm so happy you enjoyed it.
@claudiorio
@claudiorio 3 жыл бұрын
I know the video is old but I have to agree with the pinned comment. I already knew Bayes Theorem buy as I don't use it often, I have to be constantly refreshing the details in my mind. KZfaq algorithm recommended this video and it's hands down the best I have ever watched.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you. I really appreciate that.
@yurysambale
@yurysambale 6 жыл бұрын
Stop looking for a descent tutorial... this one is the best!
@fahad3802
@fahad3802 7 жыл бұрын
I have been struggling with bayesian inference and your tutorial makes it so easy to understand! Thank You! Keep up the good work.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 7 жыл бұрын
I'm very happy to hear it Fahad. Thanks.
@SupremeSkeptic
@SupremeSkeptic 6 жыл бұрын
Definitely the best explanation of the theorem told in an easily understandable way, I can find in the internet...
@liucloud6317
@liucloud6317 5 жыл бұрын
I have viewed many explanations about Bayes rule but this is no doubt the best! Thanks Brandon
@rameshmaddali6208
@rameshmaddali6208 4 жыл бұрын
For 5 years i kept Bayes aside , you are the guru in teaching stuff.. God bless you Brandon
@himanshu8006
@himanshu8006 5 жыл бұрын
I must say, this is the explanation of Bayes theorem, I have ever seen..... PERFECT!!!!!
@Skachmo1
@Skachmo1 7 жыл бұрын
There are never lines at the men's room.
@selamysfendegu8239
@selamysfendegu8239 5 жыл бұрын
haha.
@dinikosama
@dinikosama 5 жыл бұрын
lol
@Beebo
@Beebo 4 жыл бұрын
Unless it's cocaine.
@masterpogi1818
@masterpogi1818 3 жыл бұрын
So the probability of this sample being true is 0%, hahhaha
@dhanushram6137
@dhanushram6137 3 жыл бұрын
You have never been to developer conferences :)
@bharathwajan6079
@bharathwajan6079 Жыл бұрын
hey man,this is the one good explanation for conditional prob i had ever heard
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@xxlolxx447
@xxlolxx447 6 жыл бұрын
This was the best explanation of Bayes I've ever heard, I had such a hard time wrapping my head around it from other sources
@regozs
@regozs 4 жыл бұрын
This is the best explanation yet, it helped me get a greater intuitive sense of Bayesian inferences.
@brendawilliams8062
@brendawilliams8062 2 жыл бұрын
Yes it was great. It seems running into Feigenbaum maths or simular
@amanjain3341
@amanjain3341 7 жыл бұрын
Thank you sooo much Brandon for explaining the concepts so clearly.
@lenkapenka6976
@lenkapenka6976 3 жыл бұрын
Superb lecture - esp. the MLE explanation!
@kimnguyen1227
@kimnguyen1227 6 жыл бұрын
This is fantastic. Thank you so much! I have been exposed to BT before, but have never understood it. As sad as it sounds, I didn't realize it was composed of joint probability which is composed of conditional probability, and marginal probability. Conditional probability and joint probability, and Bayes theorem all just looked the same. This really helped clarify things for me.
@raghurrai
@raghurrai 6 жыл бұрын
I wish everyone taught like this. Your presentation was awesome. Thank you
@SamuelShaw1986
@SamuelShaw1986 6 жыл бұрын
Great explanation and video lesson production. Best Bayesian lesson I've found on youtube
@karthiksalian5715
@karthiksalian5715 4 жыл бұрын
Best video I found with all the information that I needed at one place. Thanks.
@Blooddarkstar
@Blooddarkstar 7 жыл бұрын
This video deserves more thumbs up. I understood a lot on a lazy sunday evening :) great explaination.
@SuperJg007
@SuperJg007 5 жыл бұрын
Amazing. I already knew what Bayes theorem was, but you have an awesome intro to Bayes. Thanks for the video.
@KunwarPratapSingh41951
@KunwarPratapSingh41951 6 жыл бұрын
I was looking for intuitive content to introduce me about essence of Bayes theorem in statistics, thanks for this. Luckily I found your blog about machine learning and robotics. That's all what I wanted under a roof, robotics, data science and machine learning.
@robertoarce-tx8yt
@robertoarce-tx8yt 11 ай бұрын
this was very intuitive explanation, man do more!
@taghreedalghamdi6812
@taghreedalghamdi6812 4 жыл бұрын
I was reading about Bayes Theory for months ! And this is the first time I understand the concept!! Wow!! such an amazing way of teaching!!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 4 жыл бұрын
I'm so happy to hear it Taghreed. That was exactly my hope.
@redserpent
@redserpent 5 жыл бұрын
Thank you. Your video has been of great help. I have tried different resources to wrap my head around Bayesian theorem and always got knocked out at the front door. Excellent expalnation
@sreekanthk2911
@sreekanthk2911 5 жыл бұрын
I have been searching for explanation like this for sometime and a big WOW to this guy. Wonderful explanation!!
@johneagle4384
@johneagle4384 Жыл бұрын
Great example! Very easy to follow and understand. On a side note: I showed your video to my students and some of them objected rather "emphatically". They said it was too sexist. Crazy times we live in....Instead of math and statistics, they wanted to discuss gender roles and stereotypes in a Stat class. Gosh!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer Жыл бұрын
Thanks John! I agree with your students. When I watch this now, I cringe. I definitely need to re-do it with a better example, one that doesn't reinforce outdated gender norms.
@johneagle4384
@johneagle4384 Жыл бұрын
@@BrandonRohrer No....Please, do not follow the mad crowds... this an innocent, simple math example. People are getting crazy and finding excuses to feel offended and start meaningless fights!
@Terszel
@Terszel 6 ай бұрын
So sad. Long hair and standing in the womens restroom line and we cant even use Bayes' thereom to assume its a woman 😂
@specialkender
@specialkender 4 жыл бұрын
GOD THANKS FOR EXISTING. Finally somebody that fucking breaks down the most important part of it (namely, how the do you calculate the likelyhood in practice). I hope life rewards you beautifully.
@EANTYcrown
@EANTYcrown 6 жыл бұрын
hands down best explanation i've seen, thank you
@PietchRhum
@PietchRhum 7 жыл бұрын
You're very good at explaining and also you go in some details which is nice. Too often youtube tutorials are too simple. keep going.
@keokawasaki7833
@keokawasaki7833 5 жыл бұрын
now that you have said that (an year ago), i kinda feel like finding the probability of likelihood of a youtuber making too simple tutorials!
@mariorodriguesperes1501
@mariorodriguesperes1501 5 жыл бұрын
Great video!! Very nice and easy to digest explanation of Bayes theorem! Thank you very much for sharing this excellent material. I have got a better understanding on how to apply it to my problems. Keep the great work!
@joshuafancher3111
@joshuafancher3111 6 жыл бұрын
Excellent explanation. At the 15:20 and beyond is when everything really started to come together. Also thanks for deriving the formula at the 7:10 mark.
@mathiasmews1122
@mathiasmews1122 3 жыл бұрын
You're so much better than my Statistics teacher, thank you so much for this explanation!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Mathias!
@jacktretton7815
@jacktretton7815 4 жыл бұрын
best explanation I found on the topic so far. great work!!!
@mariamedrano4348
@mariamedrano4348 6 жыл бұрын
Excellent examples and explanation! Now everything is so much clearer. :)
@ssundaraju
@ssundaraju 4 жыл бұрын
Great explanation and simplification of a difficult concept. The three quotations at the end are poetic and purposeful. Thanks
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 4 жыл бұрын
I found them surprising relevant too. Thanks Sridhar.
@joserobertopacheco298
@joserobertopacheco298 2 жыл бұрын
I am from Brazil. What a fantastic explanation!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Jose! Welcome to the channel
@ukktor
@ukktor 7 жыл бұрын
The knowledge that Bayes was a theologian and that his theory requires at least some belief or faith in improbable things earns a "Well played, Mr. Bayes" slow clap. I've been enjoying your videos Brandon, thanks for keeping things approachable!
@themennoniteatheist1255
@themennoniteatheist1255 2 жыл бұрын
I’m not sure that Bayesian epistemology requires a belief in improbable things. I love this video, but I think that’s an overstatement. I do think that it requires us to be open to the possibility that improbable things may be true. It does not require me to have faith in anything improbable, but rather to proportion our beliefs to the evidence (probabilities)- which is the antithesis of faith-while accepting the possibility of being wrong. To accept something as true that is improbable… is intellectually irresponsible and lacks due caution and humility. But to withhold belief (proportionally to the evidence) from improbable things is intellectually responsible and does not exclude being open to surprise-to the possibility that something improbable is true. I don’t think Bayesian epistemology intrinsically expects you to hold as true some improbable thing (faith). Abstinence from faith is acceptable in all cases as long as the possibility of error is operative. This suggestion that it’s necessary in Bayesian epistemology to believe something that is improbable was the only sloppy part of the video, no? I’m open to correction…
@ahmedemadsamy4244
@ahmedemadsamy4244 Жыл бұрын
I think you guys got it the opposite way, the video was trying to say, be open to believe in the improbable things that come from the data (evidence), rather than only holding on a prior belief.
@eunicepark6860
@eunicepark6860 6 жыл бұрын
Terrific examples and terrific explanation down to such applicable quotes!
@houssemguidara4467
@houssemguidara4467 4 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the video, it helped me understand the concept of Bayesian inference. The concept is simple. In a nutshell, you have an idea about what the quantity is and then you use the measurements to sharpen your assumption.
@s45510325
@s45510325 6 жыл бұрын
the best explanation I ever seen! Super clear.
@Nifty-Stuff
@Nifty-Stuff Жыл бұрын
Absolutely brilliant! Your presentation, examples, etc. were perfect and applicable! Thanks!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much :)
@divyagurumoorthy3354
@divyagurumoorthy3354 5 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much. The way you put it is really nice and easily understandable, yet conveys the concept. :)
@dmhowe2001
@dmhowe2001 6 жыл бұрын
I thought this was not only a great example of Bayes but also a nice intro for Cox's Theorem. Nice jobQ
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 6 жыл бұрын
* quickly looks up Cox's Theorem * Why, yes it does Donna. Thank you! :)
@eyesonthetube
@eyesonthetube 5 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the excellent video. A good refresher! Keep up the good work!
@dalelu9422
@dalelu9422 7 жыл бұрын
Simply the best ! Thank you Brandon
@balasubramanianilangovan888
@balasubramanianilangovan888 4 жыл бұрын
Hi Brandon, your video was simple, superb, and stupendous!
@Erin-uk2jj
@Erin-uk2jj 2 жыл бұрын
Brandon, this was great, thank you. Very easy to follow and really interesting and concise!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Erin!
@kunliu4349
@kunliu4349 5 жыл бұрын
Amazing videos! Thank you for making my day easier.
@Atoyanable
@Atoyanable 2 жыл бұрын
such a well-thought -through video, very good explanations for every instance, the ending was the bonus, loved it, thank you
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you Lilit! I appreciate that.
@kirankk9565
@kirankk9565 7 жыл бұрын
the best explanation i hv seen about bayes theorem... awsome... thnx a ton....
@viviankoneke1389
@viviankoneke1389 4 жыл бұрын
"...one of the top 10 math tattoos of all time." 😂
@AnasHawasli
@AnasHawasli 6 ай бұрын
The best explaination on youtube thank you man
@wysiwyg2489
@wysiwyg2489 6 жыл бұрын
I believe you don't know much about statistics (the impossible thing), but I do believe you really know how to explain Bayesian Inference. Great video.
@WilliamHarbert69
@WilliamHarbert69 7 жыл бұрын
Bravo! Wonderful presentation. Thank you for this presentation.
@bga9388
@bga9388 6 ай бұрын
Thank you for this excellent presentation!
@billgiles9662
@billgiles9662 6 жыл бұрын
Brandon, GREAT explanations!! I am taking a "Math for Data Sciences" class and have been flying through it until the final week and "Bayes Theorem". Achk...... It was poorly explained and very confusing. I was going to drop the class as I just couldn't get it. After watching your KZfaq explanation I am excited about the possibilities and understand the way it works - cool stuff! Thank you for all you do!!!
@julianjohnmert8658
@julianjohnmert8658 3 жыл бұрын
Dude your analogies are on point.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks Julian
@Qarout2021
@Qarout2021 6 жыл бұрын
Really I want to thank you so much the best thing that I have ever heard about Bayesian. you have illustrated everything and simplify the method for me regards
@StephenHsiang
@StephenHsiang 6 жыл бұрын
best explanation on youtube so far
@capuleto126
@capuleto126 6 жыл бұрын
Thanks, very well explained, the charts are also very well prepared.
@lemyul
@lemyul 4 жыл бұрын
i like the quotes you put at the end and how you reword them
@b.e.3940
@b.e.3940 2 жыл бұрын
thank you so much. you expained it in an awesome way and saved my exam.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 2 жыл бұрын
Glad to hear it
@mohamedanasselyamani4323
@mohamedanasselyamani4323 4 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for the best explanation, It's very interesting
@KazaaModo
@KazaaModo 2 жыл бұрын
That was fantastically done.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you :)
@gautamjain2487
@gautamjain2487 5 жыл бұрын
Nothing much to say only thank you! you may have helped me in clearing my exam!
@mia23
@mia23 5 жыл бұрын
Wow... amazing. You’re a great teacher!
@Daniboy370
@Daniboy370 10 ай бұрын
What a stunning explanation. Speechless
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 10 ай бұрын
💜 🧡 🖤 💚 🤎 💛 💙
@WahranRai
@WahranRai 3 жыл бұрын
0:40 Bayes wrote 2 books one about theology and one about probabilty. He planed to write a third book infering the existence / non existence of God with probability (likelihood distribution = humanity, Prior distribution= miracles !
@nika_cm
@nika_cm 7 жыл бұрын
This helped me immensely, thank you so much!!
@dovshazeer2659
@dovshazeer2659 4 жыл бұрын
Excellent. For those for whom this is the first lesson on Bayes, you've left out a few steps here and there. But still excellent. It's difficult to make things understandable. You're excellent at it.
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 4 жыл бұрын
Thanks Dov! And good callout - this focuses on the concepts and doesn't tell you quite enough to code it up. That will be the subject of a future course on e2eml.school
@xiandongqi7997
@xiandongqi7997 7 жыл бұрын
hope you can do more videos!!! you are the best teacher!
@jonathanrodrick7319
@jonathanrodrick7319 4 жыл бұрын
Great video - this really helped a lot. Thank you so much.
@taureanamir
@taureanamir 5 жыл бұрын
absolutely amazing explanation
@priyanshagarwal1581
@priyanshagarwal1581 6 жыл бұрын
Lovely Explanation! Thanks a lot Brandon Rohrer
@angli1054
@angli1054 4 жыл бұрын
Thumbs up after watching the first 3 minutes. Finally, the "prior" make sense to me!!!!!!
@riderblack6401
@riderblack6401 6 жыл бұрын
The best video about Bayes! Thumb up
@phuonghoagiang8067
@phuonghoagiang8067 5 жыл бұрын
Just wanna say this is amazing. Thanks for sharing.
@missh1774
@missh1774 Жыл бұрын
Start with more slides like your last two. Thanks this was insightful.
@moazelsayed541
@moazelsayed541 Жыл бұрын
That's the best explanation ever❤️❤️❤️❤️
@williamliamsmith4923
@williamliamsmith4923 7 ай бұрын
Amazing explanation and graphics!
@BrandonRohrer
@BrandonRohrer 6 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@maayan1987
@maayan1987 6 жыл бұрын
I loved the Mark Twain citation in the end! Great video thanks! However I have one question, do you assume normal distributions of the likelihood? Why so?
@ilanaizelman3993
@ilanaizelman3993 5 жыл бұрын
You deserve many more subscribers dude
@ComtoInterim
@ComtoInterim 7 ай бұрын
Thank you so much for excellent explanation
@yltsai7863
@yltsai7863 4 жыл бұрын
Really fantastic teaching! Thanks!
@MonsieurSchue
@MonsieurSchue 11 ай бұрын
Wow can't believe I only came across this video now. This is by far the best explanation on Bayes with great examples! Thanks @BrandonRohrer !! Love the example with the weight of puppy! May I ask if you have codes to deal with multiple priors/ multiple events? Say such as an extension of the weight of the puppy, if the weight change is more than one pound, plus she may be showing some other symptoms (say losing appetite), the likelihood of her being sick from something is x. Or even, losing appetite can be just due to weather being too hot. So the lost of weight of one pound from the last vet visit and losing appetite may not be significant at all and doesn't warrant multiple expensive test suggested by the vet.
@emilianomazzoli2421
@emilianomazzoli2421 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks Brandon! This was very clear and useful. :)
@yavdhesh
@yavdhesh 6 жыл бұрын
Superb explanation Sir
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