Fires are determined by how inconvenient it would be at that time.

Bit of a correction: the only ships that can take FP _are_ battleships, ever since the 10.0 captain skill overhaul. It was actually a stealth nerf to supercruisers (stalin and alaska/pr in particular) because the full duration fires with no way to buff the DCP really cut down their survivability.

Dude, I love having an engineer nerd making vids. A year ago I didn't have any 21pt commanders, working them all up together (more or less). Then I came across your old commander point video, now I have something like 8 and growing my commander skills by leaps and bounds. Thanks for the fire explanation, the whole FRC was all new to me and I didn't actually understand the interaction between that the your shells "supposed" fire chance.

Considering I had a battle once in an Akizuki. which ended with over 250 shell hits and a grand total of 1 single fire, this video hits way too close to home.

Great explanation. Thank you. I don't usually pay attention to fire chance, but your comparison of fire chance across tiers is a point that I will use in future battles.

Floods yes please.

Great video! First time viewer here, and this video is something that I wanted to know about, and the presentation was really easy to follow and understand. Thank you! I remember watching a Flambass Harugumo match. He had IFHE, and possibly the signals equipped, and landed over 400 shells, and didn't get a fire. It was funny, and frustrating to watch how bad his RNG was for that match. It's nice to finally understand the math going into it.

Blessings upon the math-inclined to deep dive this for people like me who are math-averse. Thanks for doing such a detailed breakdown with practical examples. The TL;DR for why I never get fires is that RNG hates me. (0 of my 74 Marceau HE shells fired at unlit targets set a fire in a recent Clan Battle game.)

Very informative had not thought about it that in depth

Awesome work Clyde! Well done!

An important addition should be that from the calculated low firechance from i.e. a Nevsky on a Montana you then have the lovely RNG factor wich further lower your chances by roughly half of that.

caught me way off guard with the crash course(?) jingle at the beginning; phenomenal video! it’s got me tempted to reinstall the game lol

i did some experiments a while back At a all tier 10 game, your average fire chance against all others ships should be divided by 3.4 So if you have a 10% fire chance it would be 10/3.4 =2.94 . So your 10% fire chance is in reality 2.94%. So on average 34 shells hits to get 1 fire This takes into account, all ship types, aim quality, rng, fire prevention skills, player skills At lower tiers with the same fire chance has a more likely chance to cause a fire It should be noted that f you have good aim against especially bbs, then the fire chance goes up a bit

Very well explained, thanks.

Informative and entertaining.

Hey great Vid loved it! BUT can u confirm that Fire Prevention Expert actualy merges the two zones amid ships? That would be a real game changer for me!

Awesome video, I’m fairly new player so this was very helpful

So as a "quick math", just half the numbers WG give you. Yeah that sounds about right for most of their things. 10% chance for something in a lootbox? Prepare for 5%.

Excellent explanation of fire mechanics which I’ve shared on my clans discord! Now if you could somehow work out the math to add rng in you’d be a genius!

Nice Video! Even with the formula the chances of just straight 10% on 10 shots could be 6% just based on Die Rolls for each gun shot. Just trying to get that die roll to be 10% of less of obtaining a fire. Weird how the formula will actually be similar to actual straight die rolls.

And I thought we just rubbed 2 sticks together, I am so behind the times.

I just find it ironic that Kongo always catches on fire, too much "Burning Love"?

So that is for 1 Nevsky shell. Let’s say you land 5 shells on Monty in a salvo your effective fire chance per salvo would be north of 30%, no?

Nice work Clyde but I'm pretty sure I don't get fires because of the hackers and the fact that I didn't buy the premium battle pass. /s

no wonder I can't start fires very often in a lot of DDs.

In the opening of your video it’s not a one in ten chance. It is a 10% chance. Those are two different metrics.

Do you know of a website that has xp calculation, like the old wowsft?

lol why does my ship light on fire first time every time id the enemy ship only has a 10% fire chance?

Hate to say it but the fire chance and the game is really much more convoluted than even you started to explain. As a long time like cruiser player I've taken a distinct interest in fires and fire chance. I've begun to notice several patterns in the game such as a higher chance to get an initial fire but a lower chance to get a follow-up fire after that first one. Of course that means that anytime you start to recognize a pattern of any sort that means there is a defect in the random number generator that the game is using. Without having the actual code it's not possible to know whether it's because of a low quality RNG done to save CPU cycles or something from the implementation such as a failure to reseed the generator. However the effect seems to be that ships that rely on lower fire chance but higher number of hits will have much more variability in their success versus larger ships with higher fire chance. The end result is end up with games at the edge of statistically possible such as 200 possible fire starting events (Hindy 13% on a non burning non dcp BB). Even with resistance in the calculation the chance of this happening is like 1 in 8000. So this could happen a few times in a veteran player's wows career but Ive had this happen much more often, and always in ships with low to mid fire chance. Of course the only way to really know would be to peek under the game's hood to examine how RNG is implemented. That said, WG has shown an aversion to 3rd party help even if well intentioned....however given their history with game breaking bugs maybe not so surprising.

140 hits for the first fire with Marceau the other day, and around 120 with Hinde a few years ago. This game is simply broken. Don't try to make any sense of it.

lol unfairly. I can take my Conq out with it's 46% chance fire, dump 10 or 11 hits on ships per volley and not get a fire until my 3rd attempt. Then do it all over again. Then someone in a DD with a 4% chance will hit me with 2 shells and I ignite as they run away. I've been dealing with this crap for years; I swear I pissed off a dev and they nerfed my numbers.