Two years ago, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, we said in a video on the channel that Russia was going to come out a loser in this conflict, and evidently it came out a loser. But that doesn't mean that Ukraine came out a winner either. Focusing on Russia, it came out a loser because so far it has not achieved much of what it set out to do with this invasion. First of all, when the Kremlin started the war with a huge arsenal and theoretically far superior to Ukraine's land and air capabilities, it was thought that Ukraine would be quickly overtaken and overpowered by the Russian military with the goal of placing a Russian-approved head of state in power. However, none of this happened because the Ukrainian forces managed to launch a counter-offensive to prevent the Russian attack on Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. They even forced the retreat of Russian troops to shift the center of the war to the east and south of Ukraine. Secondly, another of Russia's objectives with this invasion was to stop NATO's advance in Europe. However, as a consequence of this invasion, NATO was strengthened and expanded by accepting a new member, Finland, which is Russia's neighbor. And Sweden is about to join the organization as well. So, apart from not stopping NATO's expansion, Russia ended up provoking the opposite. And, finally, Russia was the loser because, after two years of conflict, it is estimated that between 50,000 and 300,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war. This figure varies widely depending on the source consulted. In addition, it has also lost hundreds of aircraft and thousands of tanks. More than a thousand foreign companies have fled Russia and about 1 million Russians have left the country since the war began. However, despite facing heavy and numerous international sanctions, Russia significantly increased its military production and its economy grew more than all G-7 countries and is predicted to do so again in 2024. So the questions are: how did Russia manage to recover its economy and massively increase its military production in such a short time, what are its challenges in the medium term, and how will this conflict end?
Sources of interest:
- Financial Times (2024). The surprising resilience of the Russian economy
www.ft.com/con...
- Foreign Policy (2024). Two Years On, What’s Next in Ukraine?
foreignpolicy....
- RUSI (2024). Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine Through 2024
www.rusi.org/e...
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