That's because the economic wizards/scam artists took things like groceries, gasoline and home heating out of CPI years ago. They said those prices were too volatile for their liking, yet in reality, those are the biggest costs for the average consumer. Back in the 70s and 80s, they included those in CPI and inflation data. Using the same metrics today, inflation is well over 15%, which eclipses anything seen at the highest peak of 1970s inflation. You know the talking heads on TV and at the FED are selling you lies and half truths when they don't even dare to speak of this fact openly.

@Jegon Are you buying groceries for more people now than before?

@@Lawliet734 No. It is for the same family count of 5

they removed food and energy out of the equation to mislead you

@@Cj2o You are wrong. The headline CPI number does include food and energy, there is a another CPI number which doesn't include food and energy. Just google "December 2021 CPI Summary" and go the actually BLS CPI report. You will see the headline number of inflation (CPI) being 6.8 under the calculation of "All Items", then afterwards there is a second section called "all items less food and energy" which gave a number of 4.9.

I doubt the numbers support that. It's the biggest market in the world, the Fed is not in charge.

Fed manipulates more in the short term. Long term rates sign of economic strength / weakness ahead.

If everything is manipulated. Which it is. There isn't any economic principles to read. To forecast correctly on.

based on that logic the markets will not have a meaningful crash and it is safe to invest all our money in the broad market index funds?

Maybe. Maybe not.

Never did never do.

not including food and energy for example, most people's biggest cost

@@Pomelu Same here in the UK

Lmao clown I tell ya 🤣🤡🤡

We already had the induced crash dut to covid. Otherwise it would've being the apocalypse. Bon't don't worry, the economy is doomed, they just kicked the can down the road.

@@johnnysack2404 I don't think timing the market is a thing you can do consistently, so I it's rather very stupid or very brave to do so in public, however the data is there and the yield inverted in 2020 after the fed raised rates begining in 2016.

His thesis is always correct. The issue is there is no way to know what monetary policy will be

He’ll be right one of these years

you are definitely right , waiting on the government is a big waste

Investments are the stepping Stones to success especially if you been guided by a professional

Investing is good but investing in the right thing is the actual key to success . who is your pro ?

That was exactly what I did, I trade with a professional stock expert "VIVIAN KLAINE MORGAN " who i met in one of the seminars..

There are so many investment out there but if profits must be considered then not all investments are good to go into.

buy growth?

@@Aquamelli yep. I am easing into it over the next six months.

I cannot agree more, Eric. What else they can do!

Not necessarily - have a look at what Volcker did during his time as Fed president.

@@yildiz2785 Volker cant save the day, raising rates will crash the economy, we don't have the slack to play with, which he did

Cut it back from what? They haven't even started to rise the interest rate. It'll be interesting to cut from 0.25 or 0.50...

@@krisztiant2433 10 year Treasury is 1.75%...they are negative in Europe and Japan. Lots of room to cut. Plus was more referring to the fed raising rates as they plan to do

Nice content mate expert Jessica E. Haddad is legit and her method works like magic I keep on earning every single week with her new strategies

I don't wait for the government stimulus check anymore because I invested in a trading company where I earn profit every week

@@michealkings3361 I heard bout Jessica Haddad exploit that was about some couple of months ago, I felt she is not recognized and I felt reluctant 🤦‍♀️

@@josewisdom9509 You are right because I invested with Leticia $3,800 and I earn $22,100 in the space of seven business days.

@@stellatrossad3953 I have really heard a lot about Mrs Jessica Haddad , please can I have her info? I want to give her a trial with some Crypto's in my Trust wallet

2.2 billion net worth. i'd take his opinion over yours anyday.

@@MotivatedKenny Definitely I see your point about who is speaking. However, I can list a few billionaires who has been singing a song of recession for a while.

@Penderyn If it is so accurate then we all should be rich. At the end, it is all about timing. Will you enter or pull out of the market based on the opinion. Of course, not. My point is that it was a reasonable indicator but not anymore. The major fundamentals were disrupted during GFC by policy makers and Fed, GFC was never repaired in the correct way. We are not in that traditional environment anymore.

too late lol rip

Basically when the yield curve goes down rates go up, vice versa. When yield is flat it means there’s a recession likely coming. It’s all backed by credible researchers

People are investing less with banks, but thats simply because they are doing it on decentralised platforms now and some are almost bigger than banks

@@funez- only they base it on known economics, we are dealing with the biggest growth in defi and something they cant measure, people are getting huge yield on defi

@@angrybrit7331 what’s defi?

The fed has been manipulating the market and with the current rate of inflation, yields (money made off lending/investing in bonds) is negative in real terms. This is why the stock market is going bananas, if I told you that you should lend me 1000 dollars and in a year I'll give you 1025 dollars but those dollars are really worth 900 dollars in next years purchasing power, would you lend me the money? The market is basically paying people to borrow money, idk about you but that seems a little sus...

Or continued all time highs for another decade.

100%

Keeping cash 🙃

Well done, me stupid bag holding and hoping

Holding cash with this type of inflation is very very risky.

@@chamber32doors really risky? Everyone got destroyed in the market today, and I can always buy stocks at lower prices tomorrow because cash is king and it gives you leverage.

@@erickestrada6782 Yes every day you hold cash it decreases in value because of inflation versus buying good companies and holding long.

The Shadow do.

If the market crashes, and it is long overdue, the crash has been building up like a tidal wave for years due to a number of decisions that were made by the Fed, Democrats and Republicans alike.

@@GoldenRetrievers4President Agreed. Democrats and republicans don't care about the citizens. They just want to stay rich, and keep the peasants poor.

why do you need 16 houses? fking greedy capitalists pay your fair share

I don’t mind you hustling for your money, but you and your partner are the exact problem why we have a nationwide housing shortage and why many first-time home buyers are priced out of the market. Don’t be surprised if you piss off many people; not because of envy, but because of your greed. Many families just want a single-home where they can call home, but you and greedy capitalists killed the American Dream.

​@@TheAnonymous916 Since you're wildly uneducated, let me help you. No, people like him are NOT the problem. There were ALWAYS going to be people who worked hard enough to put themselves in the position where they owned real estate as investments, regardless of the incompetence of the federal government - who handed out 6 trillion dollars that they created out of thin air, artificially padding the networths of every person in America. If you were even of average intelligence, you'd be able to tell that your beloved government is killing your American dream, and capitalists literally CREATED the American dream. You're so far brainwashed by the greedy, envious, jealous left that I can tell you're beyond help. STOP listening to the people you're associating with because they're not helping you! The best news is, one day YOU TOO can become a wealthy capitalist if you put in a little work over the course of a couple decades, instead of being indoctrinated into hating anyone who's experienced more success than you while you waste all your time being unproductive.

My guess would be that this guy worked for those properties, was handed nothing, and is now enjoying the fruits of his labour, but I understand your jealousy.

you only have 16?

25-35% across most markets. It'll quickly recover. People are the best capitalized they've been in 100 years. Too many people will be able to buy deep dips in stocks and housing prices for it to last too long or get too low.

They DON"T and NEVER have! I have watched Gundlach for years and this time he is JUST WRONG and if anything, he IS MANIPULATING what his INTERPRETATION is! What he said is VERY STRANGE and all you need to do to prove it is; go LOOK at bond yields as the FED FOR the last 12 YEARS has done when it buys bonds --- the YIELDS have STAYED DOWN, FLAT or GONE down! NOW the FED has said it is going to TAPER its BUYING and YIELDS are RISING, you have obviously SEEN it with your own eyes! And the FED said they are going to RAISE rates, NOW the bond market is EVEN BEATING the FED to the punch, The YIELDS are going up as I post this! Bond yields rising or falling is SUPPOSED to by like watching paint dry, YET, we are watch them RACE, this tells you how much fear and the effect of the SHOCK of the inflation number of 6.8% was! And that 6.8% is FAR too low-- most people know it is more like 10% - or higher! Gundlach is just wrong! Sorry that is the truth and I DO know how you might feel -- he is an expert and yes he is and has been a huge bond fund money manager! But the fact is -- he is wrong! Again -- just go look at the bond yields over that number of years and what is happening NOW! TRUST yourself, read and watch conflicting opinions, take it all in and THEN-- YOU get to decide, you can SEE what is REALLY happening( the past bond yields) then be CONFIDENT in YOUR STANCE-- yes, even AGAINST someone like Gundlach-- you can be VERY RIGHT and he IS and can BE very wrong-- the EVIDENCE is THERE!

@@yakkyuu12 I guess we are right ;-) I wonder why no one of his interviewers is challenging him?

@@larifari4371 ITs kind of a "fluff" interview, the interviewer may not understand how bonds really work, there are a lot of people who do financial reporting that are newbies or not really into finance_ I know thats hard to imagine! Lastly and probably the most likely the interviewer just WANTS Gundlach to do the most talking and let it be his show, he is considered a bond guru and the interviewer is just letting Gundlach have the WHOLE time and he just asks - GENERIC questions--- NO challenging him at all! You can tell by listening to the interviewers questions-- they are VERY general!

@@yakkyuu12 Thanks, yeah I am shure he is wrong on this. But HOW COME ?? I am just little Joe Sixpack and know better, so do you. Is it on purpos? Makes no sense to me.

This part of what I will post will be opinion, but ALL the other posts I have put up are facts: Sometimes people who are kind of ANOINTED by other people( lemmings really)and have GOOD credentials, are just so FULL of themselves, they just think they ARE the DEFACTO WORD on their given field-- I am SURE you have seen this in your own field of work! I REALLY think Gundlach just DID NOT CARE about what came out of his mouth( I know that sounds too simplistic) but it happens and when things are SAID by the "EXPERT" people ON THE WHOLE--- do NOT LOOK DEEPER AT ALL! They just FOLLOW and believe what the EXPERT says! BUT- when YOU LEARN AND EARN the knowledge of CONCEPTS -- of ANY field you have TAKEN the time to learn- you HAVE EARNED -- FULL right to QUESTION -- for better or worse--- what someone who is SUPPOSED to be a leader in their field ---SAYS! OVER TIME -- Gundlach will NOT be ABLE to DEFEND what he said-- he just won't! He may TRY to cover his mistake - by saying we are misinterpreting what he said--- this is NOT true-- we HAVE DONE OUR HOME WORK and it IS what it IS! So - Gundlach has made a BAD mistake-- I am not sure how his mind translated this MISTAKE into words -- but it did! Sorry there is no deeper reason, but you could review this video and specifically at 24 seconds into and I REALLY think -- you will NOT come up with a DIFFERENT reason! Which just--reinforces -- you are RIGHT!

Valuations are still pretty high, when looking at revenue multiples even extremely high, of shiller PE. Pe has come down.

I too question that comment.

A lot of these guys think everything is just like it was in the 80s. The world isn’t the same anymore. You can’t extrapolate data from 40 years and think it’s going to accurately predict the current markets.

its not illegal, the FED has been given the power to manipulate interest rates since we went off the gold standard in 1971!

Not if you acknowledge the fact that CPI was deliberately altered in the 90s and again in the 2000s to understate inflation by a considerable margin. To not consider this and simply take the measurement at face value is a garbage in, garbage out analysis.

You are right in THEORY! Years ago NO ONE and I mean NO ONE paid ANY attention to the 12month CPI, many years ago the CPI WAS looked out between 2 and 3 YEARS-- how is that for some truth! Another very important economic measurement that HAS CHANGED for the FED AND wall street is; The --- 10year BOND--- in the late 1990's to early 2000's the ONLY bond measurement you followed and heard about was ------- the 30 YEAR BOND! So your CPI of 24months to 36 months was VERY much looked at and so was the 30 yr bond- NOT at ALL the 10 bond! Why has THIS CHANGED??? This is NOT a GOOD thing-- trust me! The change has been because; INVESTORS AND ECONOMISTS ---- NOW--- do NOT -- have NEAR as MUCH FAITH in what would be LONG TERM economic outlook! They HAVE CHANGED ( wall street, the FED, and our WHITE HOUSE!) they DO NOT, ANY MORE want to put much WEIGHT on outlooks on economic conditions -- like you mention! That is why the CPI is ONLY 12 month and the BIG talk is ALWAYS about the --10 year bond! That SHOULD also TELL you --- big money does NOT have NEAR as much FAITH in what LONGER term investments and also LESS FAITH in what the CPI would be in 24 months! IT used to be VERY different-- the CPI was 24month and the 30 yr bond WAS the standard----- that is a VERY GOOD HINT -- that BIG money-- has LESS FAITH in EVEN the MOST conservative investment( bonds) -- out 30 years! They just STOPPED using 24 CPI( yes it was actually followed) because our economy -- has BECOME TOO VOLATILE for that long an out look! There is some REAL history for you and REAL truth, from someone who spent YEARS on the floor of the NYSE exchange!

I'm expecting 25-30%. This month or next, and housing/used vehicles will follow. About the same. 25%.

@@enthused7591 why next month? I thought the feds were going to start raising rates in March

sounds like someone who missed out.

Sorry, no Tesla at $95 anymore for you

We need the Hiroshima of crashes

@@DonesdeMotivacion I don’t care about stocks we need a great reset look at our debt 💸

@@SGspecial84 naaaa I didn’t miss out I jumped in doge coin before it was even a penny and in the Tesla splits they have done,it’s deeper then that,American need a great reset

that's brutal. people renewing bc they have no choice, likely, and not because they're seeing the surplus you likely are.

@@cwr8618 It is the way markets work.

@@networth8754 markets are manipulated

You dint have money so you shouldn’t talk or comment

@@AmritSinghAuja And you know this how? Look dude, I've been investing for over 40 years and I have watched this guy on numerous occasions. It's always the doom and gloom scenario. Tell me, what type of experience do you have?

I will admit I am a noob at this, but can you elaborate more on how the FED can control Yields by using QE and Bond buying? Does it mean the FED by buying bonds thus raises the price of the bond and lowers the yields of the bonds? but what good does lowering yield do the FED? please and thank you

@@31088489 I will start with ---QE-- Quantitative Easing- this is BASICALLY what happens; The FED does 2 things 1) supply the BIG banks with a LOT more money at what they call the discount window -- the Fed OWNS the discount window and the banks can come there when ever needed to take a LOAN( yes, a loan) but that loan is VERY LOW interest rate-- about 1/4 of one percent- or .25%-- that is really low interest! #2 is SO IMPORTANT-- the FED goes to banks and REGULARLY does what they call --STRESS TESTS-- this test determines HOW MANY LOANS and HOW much money -- is on the EDGE OR IN SERIOUS danger of becoming --bankrupt( bad loans, not being paid back) ALSO the Banks ARE in the stock market( yes, they are-- no matter what anyone else tells you!) if the bank has too much in losses that could endanger the banks liquidity( amount of money they have) the FED -- ACTUALLY BUYS -- a LOT of ALL those bad loans AND stock losses-- YES-- they do--they just don't say it! They just say they are buying "assets"- that can be a LOT of different things! NOW-- the FED has basically RE- SUPPLIED the BANKS with FRESH money and taken a LOT bad debts off the hands of the banks-- as absurd as this sounds this is what HAS been going on! BUT- the FED sets RULES for that bank-- it MUST KEEP THAT FRESH MONEY in the BANK AS RESERVES-- the bank can lend it out-- but the NEW loans are scrutinized and there will be NO MORE loans to ANYONE with --- LOW CREDIT ratings! This Fresh money-- is NOT TO GET TO THE STREET( main street people)-- in EASY manner--- BECAUSE-- the MORE EASY LOANS TO people means --- there is a LOT MORE money -- NOW OUT in the economy--- THIS FLOODING WOULD CAUSE - inflation!!!! So the banks can LEND-- but must be MUCH MORE -- careful! MOST people do NOT understand the next thing( it is SO important)--- Quantitative EASING--- is NOT AT ALL--- causing inflation!! WHY?-- Because --remember-- I said that FRESH money is FORCED to SIT in the banks as RESERVES-- NO MORE lending like its water! This MEANS --SO MUCH PRINTING of money -- is NOT in the system like people THINK- It is. It DOES cover BAD LOANS( that money NEVER hit the street-- it just covered the banks bad losses on loans) and YES-- ALL banks have been FLOODED with money-- most held at their account at the FED! BOND BUYING--- the FED has regular auctions ( yes, real auctions) and ALL kinds of banks -some from OTHER countries are there BIDDING on the BONDS--- NOW-- The FED BIDS also!!! WHY? -- SO important AGAIN--- They KEEP bidding UP as they want, they bid UP the PRICE and WILL KEEP bidding and buying -- at a HIGHER --price on the BOND! THE EFFECT--- is EXACTLY what you said--- the FED bids the PRICE up and THAT PUSHES THE---- YIELD(interest rate ) ---- DOWN! That is SO IMPORTANT! The FED has BEEN doing this since ---- get ready---- 2010-- yes, that LONG--- WHY? When housing and market crashed in 2008-- the BAD debt WAS SO BAD and SO DEEP-- we would STILL be in a DEPRESSION--- RIGHT NOW! That is the TRUTH!-- there are STILL a LOT of homes on the EDGE of bankruptcy in this country--- but NO real estate broker or BANK-- will EVER be TOTALLY -- HONEST with you on this--BUT you do have a CLUE-- that is the QE(above) that HAD to keep happening- to KEEP buying -- BAD LOANS and other bad debt( a LOT!) ONE other main reason to KEEP interest rates SO LOW -- was to hope people( with GOOD credit) WILL BORROW money or refinance or borrow to buy things to help the economy grow and companies borrow money-- to GROW their business -- thus getting economic growth! So -- the FED continuous buying of bonds--is just one way of keeping interest rates LOW( but, it IS the most POWER TOOL they use)! The FED AND the WHITE HOUSE ( this is the political part) they have BEEN SERIOUSLY AFRAID to let interest rates go UP-- they are NOT sure how the economy will handle EVEN a LITTLE higher rates------ important--- they DO NOT want the economy to SLOW down TOO FAST and are WORRIED that a SLOW DOWN-- could be TOO LONG -- and how many companies and individuals -- who have a LOT of debt would go Bankrupt!-- This TIME RANGE of unknown is the HARD PART-- this is just ONE reason the FED does those --STRESS tests on banks! The FED DID try to raise interest rates in 2018- about from SEPT to December --- and the stock SUNK HARD and was STILL sinking for WEEKS -- the FED TOTALLY came out and made a statement-- they were going to RESUME buying bonds and UP the QE rate-- the Stock market settled down and went up after that-- you can check a SEPT 2018 to DEC 2018 chart on the DOW and NASDAQ --You will see the HARD drop and then take off! There are other BIG reasons for the FED to keep interest rates low-- our national debt is one! The other issue-- very LITTLE talked about, but in my opinion is important; The FED and all countries do compete for bond buying and RIGHT NOW -- GERMANY BUNDS( their bonds) is ------ -.042% -- YES THAT IS NEGATIVE .042-- YES -- negative interest rates!!! For the FIRST time since the Great Depression and earlier really-- we have NEGATIVE interest rate on money! So - if you bought a German bund-- for 10YEARS you could EXPECT -- to LOSE MONEY---- how is that for an eye opener! ALL of the EU --- AND I MEAN ALL--except LITTLE economies -Sweeden, Norway and Denmark------ are in WORSE interest rate problems and MASSIVE debt-- this is in RELATION to their population and their LACK of decent economic GROWTH-- worse than the USA!--- GERMANY ALONE -- is by far the strongest economy in the EU! WHY is this important? IF Germany is in negative rates why does the FED NEED to GIVE ANYONE even -- 1.75% interest on bonds??? Think about that -- even 1.50% is a LOT BETTER that --- NEGATIVE!!!!! This is called the USA being the "LEAST of the ugly ducklings"! The countries you can get HIGH interest from --- are SO UNTRUSTWORTHY - you risk NOT even getting your MONEY back, forget the interest-- your RISK of those countries DEFAULTING on the money they OWE you is SO HIGH!!!--- GREECE has already PROVEN that and Italy is having trouble meeting their interest payments to people, SPAIN AND FRANCE are not ANY BETTER! I do need to ADD another BIG problem -- the USA --BOND MARKET-- it IS BIGGER than the WHOLE stock market-- yes, there is much more money in bonds than the whole stock market! The people,companies, pensions and much more who DO buy conservative investments-- the bonds! They have been what we call-- "the sacrificial lambs"-- they have NOW for years-2010 to NOW-- been getting SO LITTLE on their bond interests-- and the FED DID THIS --ON PURPOSE! WHY?--- The 2008 crisis was SO BAD, people did NOT TRUST markets OR BANKS-- so they went to BONDS-- all KINDS of bonds -- of different years! Because people did NOT KNOW-- how many MORE banks AND companies would be bankrupt and did not know who had a LOT MORE -- HIDDEN DEBT!-- The FED -- ON PURPOSE-- WANTED that money OUT of ALL conservative bonds--- so--the FED made it NOT WORTH it to investors -- to BUY bonds and stay out of a stock market that had a lot of big problems!----The FED WANTED that bond money to GO into the stock market -- and it WORKED and A LOT of that bond money went into the stock market and was a BIG HELP --FOR MANY YEARS -- in pushing the stock market forward! THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH ALONG WITH --ALL THE OTHER CONCEPTS I POSTED, IS THE --MAIN REASON -- PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING --- FOR YEARS-- THAT THE FED HAS--- "MANIPULATED" the VAST MAJORITY OF THE STOCK MARKET, MOVING SO HIGH FOR SO LONG! Sometimes you will hear people SAY; "if the FED took the punch bowl away and NORMALIZED interest rates we-- would SEE-- if our ECONOMY was REALLY STABLE and in good shape! ------The PUNCH BOWL is a COMBO of ALL the QE, low interest rates on bonds, and bond buying -- that has a BIG effect on KEEPING mortgage rates low and ALL kinds of interest on different loans LOW( like cars!)--- So there has been a --BIG DOMINO effect-- the FED KNEW this would happen and the QE and BOND buying are just SOME of the tools --- they DID USE FOR -------YEARS and this DID MANIPULATE a LOT of different parts of the economy! NOW-- can the economy stand on it OWN 2 FEET without any HELP from the FED--- that is ---THEE big question and there is a LOT of unknown answers about THAT and the stock market HATES uncertainty in TERMS of FISCAL policies( money and financial LAWS - passed by our Federal GOVT.) AND uncertainty about MONETARY policies ( money and financial tools used by the FED)! Things got so bad for bond funds the person called "the bond king" --Bill Gross-- lost his job at PIMCO( the biggest bond fund company in the USA)-- that he ran for YEARS! NOW-- those conservative investors-- that were FORCED into buying stocks to get a decent return on their money -- so -- RIGHT NOW--there is a TON of money OWNED by VERY conservative investors -- who NEVER wanted to OWN stocks-- who DO own them-- they are NOW --from June 2021 -- taking their money OUT of the stock market and GOING BACK to BOND buying ( because the interest rates ARE GETTING BETTER--- FOR THEM!) This means ALL that FORCED money into the stock market -- is LEAVING and THIS could cause a HUGE -- ongoing FUTURE sell off in the markets! This has been too long -- sorry I really could not find a way to explain these BASICS with less words!

@@yakkyuu12 wow that’s so brief

@@KimiAlias `--- Yes, I know. Sorry, there is really no way around it, IF you want to include the REASONS and -why- QE, bond buying and other monetary moves by the FED-- have a REAL effect! The definition,,causes and effects are needed to give a MUCH better understanding that should be helpful. I hope it was helpful to you too! I also hope some other people will post their thoughts and even disagreements with what I posted. That is the way a LOT more learning and clarity happens!

You are right. I thought the same thing, it's weird of him to say.

About 10-12k people retire every day, that’s about 4M people new retirees a year. About 1M new immigrants arrive every year. Net is -3M people a year. Also, about 9k babies born every day, that’s 3M a year. Daily deaths including covid is about 10-12k/day, which is about 4M. Net is -1M a year.

Yea, I think there is going to be a worker shortage which will increase the need for automation and efficiency

@@goon5544 Yes. But automation is going to be slow to keep up with the labor shortage. It will get better with time; but planes will not fly themselves soon, trucks will not drive themselves, and nurses will never be automated.

@@findingmo7049 they will let in more immigrants

@@soberanisfam1323 The usual immigrants are not vaccinated to arrive at significant numbers yet. Besides, immigrants are following the covid, inflation and livable wage risks from abroad. They are not rushing to come here like they use to. Maybe after the pandemic.

A recession with unemployment rates below 4 percent. Full employment. Interesting.

@@vin.handle "Full employment" is a delusion.

But ... Chair Powell is a Wall Street insider ... are you kidding? Sloshing liquid excess until every 'affinity'd' insider has gotten out safe & sound, then look out below. Why else did Walmart & Target so miss their numbers & crater this week if non-insiders had the extra cash from stimulus & easing that we keep hearing about from on high?

You’re alwaysa billionaire when your friends give you inside info!

you think property values are going to go down and for an extended period of time?

@@cwr8618 Yes, throughout the last 100 years, any time the housing market crashes, it's always a prolonged event. Takes over a year to hit a floor every time.

@@cwr8618 IMHO Property values WILL go up first, this will be the group of buyers who have wanted a certain home or location and another group who have been on the edge of buying and not sure what to do as prices have not come down. My reasoning for both groups is; the interest rates on mortgages have ALREADY started UP( look at rates just from last week to today)-- these groups will RUSH in to get their interest rates --- locked in, before rates go too high! It WILL take close to 6months before we see housing prices come down( a little down, really does not count) then, we will see a more significant move down! Remember; Mortgage brokers have a SERIOUS VESTED INTEREST in KEEPING house prices HIGH-- higher prices = higher commissions-- they WILL try to keep them up-- only when they are DESPERATE--- will prices start to come down!--- NEXT -- your state, and local government -- will LIE through their teeth about this next one----- they BOTH have a VERY VESTED INTEREST in KEEPING housing prices UP--- That IS the --- PROPERTY TAX -- they WILL LIE and say this is not as important to them--- DO NOT BUY THAT!----- This will also SLOW the prices of houses coming down! The houses that you might see come down quickly are most likely in DISTRESS, have adjustable loans they can't get out of, short sales and more! Your govt. WILL work through your local CHAMBER of COMMERCE -- as a hidden way to have meaningful conversations with MORTGAGE COMPANIES -- on how to keep prices UP!

Didn't age well

@@0601ac the rate increases aren‘t over and china and supply chains aren’t open and a war is going on. Let‘s see where we are after rate increases and supply chains have recovered.

But index still at ATH. Got out myself today. I might regret but I don't feel safe in stock rn

@@rosed.488 You're smart. I did the same 2 weeks ago and stocks have twitched and started dropping in the past few days. We haven't even seen a real dip yet. We're way overcooked. It's a big bubble. Housing market too. Completely unsustainable.

not based on what they said in their recent fed report. once politics becomes involved due to inflation felt by the consumer, it becomes about saving face, which is more important than saving the market.

I think you're in for quite the surprise. The Fed's going to start raising rates at a time where supply chain issues are resolving at light-speed and consumers are tightening spending. Home prices, stocks, used vehicles etc are all going to fall 25-30%. ultimately, you're right that in 8 years we'll be right back past these prices, but do you not want to make any money on your investments for 8 years?

sounds like someone who missed out.

"shellacking" ha ha. Interesting choice of words. I don't mind the market going up, or even Bitcoin going to a million. I just get sick of trying to do day to day things, and getting no service, because everybody is at home spending their Biden bucks.

Okay boomer. Someone’s jealous😂

@sg, Bitcoin behaves very poorly in a crisis. All cryptos follow BTC. Hang on at your own peril.

@@Mikesorrento3344 How do you even know? BTC has only been considered an "asset" for 2 years on main street.

Not in a scenario when the government magically creates and hands out 6 trillion dollars to 30 million people to incentivize them to not look for jobs over the course of 20 months. Vendors HAVE to have employees, and manufacturers HAVE to have raw materials. The government has absolutely destroyed any ability of the private sector to maintain prices that bear any semblance to 2019's prices. People got paid the equivalent of nearly $16 an hour over a 40 hour work week to be lazy pieces of trash, and they all started side hustles to double that income working from home - meaning they ALL have 3 to 4x the spending money they've ever had in their lives, causing an insatiable backlog of every product that money can buy. Everyone can afford to buy stuff they could never purchase before, and it's all on the taxpayer's dime. Gross negligence doesn't quite accurately describe how bad of a job the government did with spending over this make-believe "pandemic".

Inflation = increase in money supply. 2007 M1$ supply 1.37tr. 2021 M1$ supply 20.08tr. 14.66x more $ chasing assets post GFC. CPI understates true inflation!

Or, you could wish to mirror what successful do (in area of life) and practice them. Over 90% of millionaires didn't inherit their money, they mirrored successful financial habits. Your choice

*4-5 months - fixed that for you

I guess the over/under is 2 years? We'll be heading in that direction the whole time though.

That's because he did nearly everything right and only spent 1.2 trillion on stimulus and enhanced unemployment while we figured out just how dangerous Covid was between February and August. When Joe came in and extended that insanely high enhanced unemployment and printed roughly another 5 trillion dollars over 12 months DESPITE learning that Covid ultimately has a 99.999% survival rate, he completely destroyed the economy over nothing.

The market hasn't even started a meaningful correction yet. Smaller cap stocks like that could go close to zero while we see a 30% correction on house-hold name companies.