Full podcast episode: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/qJqnf7t_3srelY0.html Lex Fridman podcast channel: kzfaq.info Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.

Mearsheimer is one of the most highly respected international relations scholars on the planet. Many weight classes above many of these youtube "political scientists" that we usually get. It's a pleasure to see him embrace popular media and hear from him in this format.

I’ve frequented mainland china many times during my trips to Hong Kong (crossing the border to mainland) and after talking to locals from all age groups. When they hear I’m from the UK, they talk very positively. Asking about weather, work, food etc. They don’t really give a crap about our politics, only care about what’s happening in their own country. And yes locals I’ve spoken to, share their disagreements about how the government/local government handles certain issues. So from personal experience of travelling to China for almost 20 years, and speaking to locals about politics, they want peace and don’t see ‘western’ countries as ‘enemies’. In fact they look up to American cultures and European architecture etc. I encourage folks to travel to China, it’s quite an eye opening experience. Especially if you aren’t shy to speak to locals!

basically spheres of influence are like huge tectonic plates, and the people between them where they collide suffer the earthquakes

I agree with a lot of things John Mearsheimer said, but on the thread of using nuclear weapon on Taiwan toward the Chinese is not smart. This will trigger the Chinese get even closer with Russia and produce more nuclear weapons themselves. The only advantage Americans have is that they have more nuclear war heads. But America is already behind on delivery of missals and defend missal attacks. America is continuously failing the hypersonic missals test, but the Chinese is already designing hypersonic delivery of smaller missals to intercept missal attacks after their success in multiple types of hypersonic delivery vehicles. They are also designing suborbital bomber with initial success. This will make American missal defence system useless. Chinese government will not put up the thread on Taiwan since they deeply believe Taiwan is part of China. If the communist government behaves weak on this matter, they will loose their legitimacy.

John, if you don’t speak the language and spend years living in China,every thing you learn is 2nd hand, you talked to a few Chinese in English then you think you understand the majority of Chinese; can you imagine someone doesn’t speak English nor spend time in the States claims himself expert in American politics, strategy, understand thoughts of American?

Using nuclear war to threaten china about reclaim their own territory Taiwan blows my mind. That’s suicidal talk. China now has hypersonic missile that can reach us mainland in 15 minutes. China does not need nukes to destroy the ships in the ocean at all. Professor needs updated memo about Chinese military capabilities.

As a Chinese, it's hilarious to see how John thinks a slight threat of using nuclear might work. He forgot we were the only country under nuclear threat by both the USSR and the USA in the late 60s. Even at that time, we still wanted to defend our own state sovereignty. Taiwan province is not America's core interest, but it is ours. It's just about seeing both sides' willingness(costs). We don't have as much nuclear as America has, but still, enough for once. We both know each other's capabilities. Bluffing known by both is just trash talk. John grew up during the cold war era. Somehow, I think he is unbelievably naive about Chinese determination.

I am a Chinese who constantly watch what China and US authorities on their preparations for confrontations for the counter part. I think Chinese strategy for US military confrontation is simple and clear: make sure if war occurs, US military can’t win the war. That’s the best strategy for US military hegemony: US can’t lose a war to another peer competitor, otherwise USA will immediately lose its prestige/influence over other regional powers. Good luck for both side.

American politicians have been practicing so called Monroe doctrine not just South America, but Europe, South Asia as well all the way to China border, including Taiwan. Without abandoning and rethinking on such aggressive and assertive guidelines, US-Chna relations will be difficult.

99.9% american never visteded/traveled China.

The problem with rattling the nuclear saber is China also has a nuclear arsenal that can reach the continental US through the North Pole. They are also increasing and modernizing the arsenal quite rapidly. For the sake of humanity, do we really want to go down that path?

By now, I've watched so many clips of this interview, I believe I've watched the full version. This guy is SO interesting

The idea of both US and China building military power further so they will contain each other from doing reckless moves always strikes me as completely schizophrenic. If military power is constantly build up, it's going to explode sooner or later. These exprets think that this is all a competition and strategic containment, but for me it's all pre-WW1 all over again. If the last 10 years have taught us something is that Status Quos and "strategic ambiguities" are going to crumble sooner or later with catastrophic consequences. It's all just increasing tension higher and higher until it blows up. And they should stop counting on Cold War history in my opinion, in which war was avoided. Yes, BARELY AVOIDED.

I will tell you from a Chinese perspective why China will incorporate TW at any cost: 1, For the emotional reason, as we are the same nation, speak the same language and share the same culture. 2, For the national security reason, TW's geographic location is strategically important to the mainland China . 3, Most importantly, China cost more than 10 million lives of death againsting Japanese brutal invasion during the WW2, and took TW back to motherland. Our ancestors won't agree if we allow TW to announce independence and assist bad guys to contain ourselves. Therefore, China will unite TW sooner or later at all cost, if any outsider wanna stop it, China will fight to the end with no doubt 😊

Very simple. Stop picking a fight. Especially one that doesn’t exist, that you are imagining.

Taiwan issue is one of the root cause of friction between US.and China. Taiwan returned to China at the end of WWII, at the cost of 30 millions Chinese lives, but many in US either lost such history dimension, or don't want to acknowledge such due to current politics. According to an article from Congress Library, "The Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) was one of the most destructive conflicts of World War II... This war marked the culmination of growing Japanese aggression toward China since an earlier Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895). With half of China ruined, 20 million Chinese (military and non-military) dead... the eight-year conflict was one of the bloodiest in world history."

I don’t really know how big Mearsheimer is in China but I do believe him. As someone grew up in mainland and fluent in Chinese and knows Chinese history and culture. A lot of his analysis and way of thinking make perfect sense to Chinese, even the part when he is critical of China. And his depth and frankness which is not a common combo, is what earned him the respect in China, even the criticism. He might not be liked but definitely is to be taken seriously.

Boy for a realist he sure has an idealistic way of deterring war

US and China apparently hold different world views rooted in different civilizations and history. For China, It's belief in holism, balance (harmony) and dynamism from Daoism. For Americans, it's.belief in anti-dualism and activism. These believes shaped their actions and own history on the world stage, may cause frictions or conflicts, but also show the value and importance of learning from each other.

Lex getting excited about the "Stick".....

this is about Psycho Paths NOt "Nations" or "people"

This man is fascinating

I'm really looking forward to Vlad Vexler's critique of Mearsheimer's analysis.

China has just 7 percent of the farmable land of the world. But they are using it to support 20 percent of the population of the world. I think if you want to squeeze something (say, Taiwan or Hong Kong) out of someone's pocket it's not wise to pick a poor guy already desperate.

The problem with Mearsheimer is that he doesn't take personalities into account. Stalin had mental problems and hence that's how he acted and so the USSR. I'm not sure why John doesn't understand this.

Actually, it is quite simple. Refrain from interfering in China's internal affairs especially UN-recognized China's Taiwan island and supporting China's Separatists which are not negotiable or cards to be played against China

Some card can only be played once or it will lose the intimidation power. Taiwan is not the core interest of US so the nuclear card won't be played.

State media in 🇨🇳 have excellent journalist's CGTN The Point-Hub-Heat, Einar Tangan-Martin Jacques-Lijinjing. Reporterfy-Cyrus Janssen.

See Ray Dalio, This never works indefinitely and always leads to war.

Thucydides, thought of as the first real historian, commented that nations go to war for “reasons of fear, honor, and interest.” That simple formulation arguably hasn’t been improved for its insight and brevity. Only the wishful thinkers and utopians think you can minimize those Big Three and they interact. Since the beginning of time, the most dangerous animals in the forest were other humans so the impulse to fear others has always been a part of pragmatic security. The “security dilemma” occurs when fear leads nations to imagine (rightly or wrongly) that another nation’s defenses are in fact offensive, meant to invade or otherwise coerce. You would be negligent to not consider the downside risk. Historical examples abound. Love has nothing to do with it, sadly.

Whatever they try, the hegemony of one emperor is not going to last. Check the history of Roman, Persian, Dutch, British etc.

"Those you bear'ed forces Were the ones who wore Cross's"

This guy: "Hitler had a peace deal ready to go with Britain after they took France. Britain walked away from it, causing ww2"

I love this guy. He says in one sentence that the United States has been too aggressive in dealing with Russia, and includes the aggressive expansion of NATO, but then almost in the same breath recommends the US threaten China with a nuclear option if they invade Taiwan. Russia invaded Ukraine. China threatens to invade Taiwan, even promises it, but somehow, America is the aggressive ones. Got to love the experts. lol

Humans are still thinking like Roman's Conquer vs Conquered

I enjoy reading him far more than I enjoy hearing him. Strikes with a huge sense of better than thou

China fears the US 10 times more than we are of them. China is trying hard to avoid war with the US.

Mearshimer is the kind of guy who would proudly display the ceasefire agreement he had negotiated with Hitler..

Do sabres rattle? Wouldn’t that indicate your weapon is faulty?

In the soviet union, loyalty counted over competence, theres no realism in it

"I'm a rockstar in China" translation; the CCP finds me a useful idiot.

Forget it. Xi Jin Ping knows very well that you'd be merely rattling your sword when you do. Besides, he knows that time is on his side with reference to Taiwan.

Count $34,000,000,000,000 and counting. Empire proud.

well，don't forget that the Chinese have nuclear weapons too.

He's full of it when he claims to be rockstar 😂 the list goes on and on including claiming Stalin's a realist and wanting potus to sabre-rattle nuclear weapons like Putin

If a woman wants to leave her husband, but you know that her doing so will result in him becoming violent, what do you do? Tell her she must stay with him no matter how she feels? Tell her you've got her back?

Please stop overlapping clips. I listen to all your clips which means listening to the same piece of conversation 3x and then 10 seconds of silence at the end of each. I love the Podcast Lex, but you're the only one doing this and it makes me want to listen less.

Well, I am not so sure the suggestion that US should remind China of nuclear war over Taiwan is helpful. It is actually the very thing that may precipitate a war. The Chinese won’t tolerate the humiliation anymore and will be sure that the US won’t risk the death of 100m+ American from the nuclear war over Taiwan. They may be wrong, but that won’t matter because what they believe will guide their actions. So, most of you, including your family members could died from Nuclear winter as a result of this miscalculation. It is sad to hear this kind of suggestion coming from him.

Fear of not existing as a country

简单来说美国穷兵黩武，这种担忧是主观上的没有结束的时候，但是支持军事扩张的资源却是有限的。美帝国的结局早已从在威尔逊总统放弃门罗主义开始已经写好。

You can avoid war by surrendering

I dont understand if you love China more than the United States then why wont you move there? Not being mean, just want you to be happy John.😂

Question. Was Korea and Vietnam an "containment" or "rollback" policy?

Candid discussion about this hot topic. I am very disappointed to see that the guest failed to recognize the value of common interests of humankind, especially in this era of potential existential threats. Rather, JM focused sorely on competition, containment and confrontation. In an upcoming financial crisis 2.0, don’t ever hope China to provide trillion $$$ again for the rescue. It there an approach and agreements that are mutually beneficial, not only to both players, but also, many nations in Asia and the world?

>"Y ou don't respect the power of other nations, you fear it." Does Germany fear the power of France? Does Italy fear the power of the UK? 100 years ago yes, but this dynamic is not inevitable, it requires nations to see international relations as a zero sum game of dog eat dog. It isn't. How much has China suffered from the oppression of the US lead international order over the last 30 years? My wife is Chinese and Ive seen it's spectacular advancement and development with my own eyes. China's foreign policy is not 'realist' except in the narrow sense of Mearsheimer's great power contest Malthusianism. It has the delusion that the leadership of the Communist part made China wealthy, when actually it was the communist party suspending communism and not ruling the economy hardly at all that enabled that growth. They succeeded by simply stopping doing harm. They then messed it up by not intervening when they should have done to cool property markets, and in fact stoked the flames for too long creating a debt bubble. China's foreign policy is utterly disastrous dicing with death. They have utterly alienated every single other country in the entire region through constant, persistent antagonism. Everybody from North Korea, South Korea, Japan, the Phillipines and Vietnam hate their living guts. Even Vietnam is now cosying up to the US, and has hosted good will visits by US carriers twice, because China has been ruthlessly bullying them so much. All these countries are arming up, and co-ordinating with or outright hosting the US military. To understand how badly China has pissed them off, realise that South Korea has actually started military co-operation with Japan. Even 10 years ago that was unthinkable. Th Chinese strategy isn't realism, it's delusional psychosis. I agree we need to understand China, he makes a good point on that, but only because they're so blinded by dogma and ideology that it's very hard to understand what they are thinking.

dear american, please dont war with china. im still unemployed here lol 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

No one asks what Taiwaneses want?

The problem here is not that both countries are getting stronger. It's the mentality of leaders specially the US government. If we get into the next level of human consciousness where we don't see the other as another tribe but a fellow human being, we will live peacefully. We must establish a new UN that isn't controlled by a single nation. This new organization must make sure nobody invades another country and respect it's culture and system. Make the citizens involve, not just leaders so we all have transparency.

Low view count because people don’t find peace interesting enough

米尔斯海默真的是典型的美国佬，自以为在中国人心中很了不起。。。

Clear mind but not a peace lover.

This guy is a shill of shills.

Communist is now a Realist? That's the new spin. Wow these pundits are interesting. Stalin a realist? I am not sure history would agree to that description.

I disagree with giving even the slightest nuclear threat to china, that would definitely lead to more escalation not backdown, US should focus on growing their own economy on that level instead of poking other fastly developing country just cause they feel threatened

If they value life as much as we do, deterrence is completely possible

Joe biden isnt thinking, boss

I don't agree it's a liberal view of the world. It's an idealistic imperial view of the world where no one can stand in the way of the imperial destiny. That the ideology of the imperium can be (very charitably) described as liberal is beside the point.

I love watching that guy realizing how stupid lex is lol

WW3 and a Supernatural Biblical happen on 12 7 23 and culminates at the Battle of Armageddon on 3 16 24 in Damascus 2nd and 3rd comings

As an African studying politics, I don't support the USA & China's neocolonialism tactics of their foreign policies. However I truly understand the intimidation & skepticism that China has caused amongst opposite superpowers. I mean! China was one of the poorest countries 40 years ago which is half the age of the current US president. The problem with our leaders is that they choose deceit & cunningness when they make diplomatic relations. There's no American politcian who would give you the dangers of making the USA an ally yet they have a bookful of how dangerous their rival is & at times they punish smaller countries for choosing to be on the opposite side. The same thing happens with those other countries. However the USA is just more aggressive & straight to the point as far their intentions. China is more sleek & have snake like tendencies. The USA would have more universal power if they weren't as arrogant & callous. Militarily they have been shown by less powerful countries that a war doesn't only take money & the best inventory but also courage/patriotism.

Title is named wrong. It should be how does China avoid getting in a war with the US. China should learn from Germany’s ambitions in both world wars.

This man thinks realism means giving China and Russia whatever they want and just pussying out. Realism also means realizing “our side” has a lot of strength too. If China invaded Taiwan, that would be hard fighting even if Taiwan was alone. However if that were to happen the US would help, and so would Japan and Australia. This is a very formidable opponent for China. Places like EU, India, and even Vietnam would not side with China and help Taiwan perhaps not militarily but diplomatically and economically. Trade with other countries would dry up. I feel it’s actually mersheimer not being realistic.

Chinese are realist lmfao he just lost credibility there

Lex is so cute.

Trump derangement is fun lol

5:26 "Where's that from? Why can't we respect the power of other nations?" I feel the question is answered in and of itself Lex. We can't respect the power of other nations because there wasn't enough power to respect. The Soviet Union wasn't powerful enough to hold it's country together. Today Xi and Putin are working very hard behind the scenes to create extremists in the US. We stand today because we chose a model of government that has been and still is fairly resilient to that sort of pressure. Xi an Putin "respect" our power because it's there, when they push they feel the brick wall that is the United States. When we pushed, the Berlin Wall came down, then the Soviet Union. And now Russia is coming down again because they pushed too hard and tripped. Anyways, the point is, that's the US's business. Once the US realized it was POSSIBLE to exert influence over the entire world, they realized that was a POWER that had to be very closely guarded and very carefully exercised. That's why the US hasn't directly invaded Cuba and taken it over. Because the US doesn't want to invade a bunch of countries across the globe and claim a new world order, they'd rather make up a bunch of rules and suggest everyone who doesn't want war with their neighbors follow along, and it's worked whether you want to admit it or not. Bring up a million examples but none of them are WWIII. The global deathrate due to war and violence has been plummeting since WWII so go figure. When you have someone in charge who wants peace and is serious about it, we get technological advancements unlike the world has ever seen, globalization and unprecedented world peace. Now that technology and wealth is being leveraged by countries like China to assert themselves as a "multi-polar" power. No way. China's gunna stay right where it's at.

Why deescalate?

This guy is best he didn't do American propogenda like others does.

Lex: "Why can't we respect the other great powers"? What a childish question makes Mearsheimer laugh. Respect China, do you have any guarantee China will pay back more respect? What if China becomes more powerful, and try to Contain the USA, dismantle all the USA's alliances, either economic, military, political then dictates its terms on you? You cannot trust! Game theory/ Prisinor dilemma read bro.

easy back off.

State media in 🇨🇳 have excellent journalist's CGTN The Point-Hub-Heat, Einar Tangan-Martin Jacques-Lijinjing. Reporterfy-Cyrus Janssen.