Full show notes for this episode, available here: chatwithtraders.com/ep-121-michael-mauboussin/
@nishanth-saka7 жыл бұрын
'Beliefs are hypothesis to be tested, not treasures to be protected.' - great line, great interview. Thanks again, @chatwithtraders
@MikeMachAttackJenkin2 жыл бұрын
With all the meme stocks and crypto meme stocks this quote is legit
@Okayand333 жыл бұрын
Love that early on in the podcast Michael explains that a great decision maker is always aware of and mitigating his cognitive limitations just as a trader is always focusing on reducing risk. Doesn't matter if its financial or mental capital, always know the downside!
@joeevans73315 жыл бұрын
I could listen to Michael Mauboussin all day long.
@edcooper41937 жыл бұрын
great interview ... This is very helpful in all facets of life ..not just trading ...
@hamisintunzwenimana8083 Жыл бұрын
Great General 1. Decision Making: Heuristics or Cognitive Biases 2. Tips; Journaling
@revenge94317 жыл бұрын
shot out to credit suisse been there 8 years best company in the planet earth!!!!!! changed my life!!!!!
@Ninja-iq2xt6 жыл бұрын
why did u left then?
@Hugo-xj2mj4 жыл бұрын
6:36 16:27 25:46 37:50 39:21
@AlligatorTrader96 Жыл бұрын
thanks.
@fundip437 жыл бұрын
one of the best you should set up amazon links to your interviewers books so you can have a mutual relationship may help bring more high quality people in
@fundip437 жыл бұрын
Like michael
@ronyorobio70963 жыл бұрын
great idea. I actually look for some of those books after I hear the interviews
@shreeabraham6 ай бұрын
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:58 *🎙️ Introduction to Michael Mauboussin* - Introducing Michael Mauboussin, Managing Director at Credit Suisse and professor at Columbia Business School. - Discussion on decision-making, process over outcome, and skill versus luck. 03:16 *📚 Michael Mauboussin's Background and Role* - Michael's background, from a liberal arts major to Wall Street. - His role as Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse and teaching experience at Columbia Business School. 05:49 *🧠 Understanding Decision-Making* - Insights into decision-making, emphasizing cognitive limitations and biases. - Highlighting the importance of auditing decision quality based on process rather than outcome. 07:39 *📉 Examples of Cognitive Biases* - Discussing specific biases like overconfidence, confirmation bias, and recency bias. - Illustrating how biases can impact decision-making in various domains, including investing. 10:14 *🔄 Overcoming Confirmation Bias* - Strategies for overcoming confirmation bias, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an open mind. - Introducing the concept of Bayes' theorem for updating beliefs based on new information. 13:15 *🎭 Emotion and Bias in Decision-Making* - Addressing the role of emotion in decision-making and strategies for reducing its influence. - Discussing the relevance of checklists and different checklist types in managing emotional arousal. 19:03 *🤔 Counterintuitive Thinking* - Explanation of counterintuitive thinking and its significance in challenging natural inclinations for better solutions. - Referencing Michael Mauboussin's book "Think Twice" and the exploration of counterintuitive concepts. 19:30 *🤔 Understanding Decision Making Biases* - Decision-making biases can lead to suboptimal outcomes, - The "inside-outside view" concept highlights the importance of integrating personal insights with broader historical data for better predictions. 21:19 *📊 The Paradox of Information in Decision Making* - More information doesn't always lead to better decisions; it can inflate confidence without improving accuracy, - Psychological experiments, like those conducted by Paul Slovic, reveal that incremental information doesn't significantly enhance decision accuracy but boosts confidence, - Overloading with information can lead to analysis paralysis, hindering effective decision-making. 23:24 *🤷 Dealing with Indecisiveness* - Indecisiveness can be addressed by prioritizing decisions based on relevance and significance, - Techniques like creating a plus/minus column for decision factors can facilitate clearer choices, - Domain-specific strategies, such as surfacing alternatives in group settings or using pre-mortem exercises, can aid decision-making. 31:38 *🧠 Understanding Cognitive Biases in Decision Making* - Cognitive neuroscience studies, like those on hyperbolic discounting, reveal how human minds prioritize immediate gratification over future benefits, - The brain's interpreter module seeks narratives to establish cause and effect, making stories more influential than statistical arguments in decision-making, - Resources like Michael Gazzaniga's book "Tales from Both Sides of the Brain" offer insights into cognitive biases and decision-making processes. 37:57 *🔄 Learning from Mistakes in Decision Making* - Reflecting on past decisions, particularly poor ones, can help identify recurring patterns and avoid repeating them, - Leveraging insights from behavioral economics, such as Kahneman's research on decision-making biases, can inform better decision-making practices, - Continuous learning, exposure to diverse viewpoints, and critical thinking are essential for improving decision-making skills over time. 38:11 *📓 Keeping a Decision Journal* - Keeping a journal of your decisions helps to mitigate hindsight bias and creeping determinism. - Write down the decision, rationale, expected outcomes, and emotional/physical feelings. - Regularly reviewing your decision log helps audit the quality of your decisions. 39:21 *🔄 Process versus Outcome* - In skill-dominant domains like chess, outcomes directly reflect skill, while in probabilistic domains, focusing on process is crucial. - Celebrating good outcomes without evaluating the process can be detrimental in probabilistic realms. - Emphasizing a good process increases the likelihood of favorable outcomes over time. 42:29 *📊 Trust in Process* - Building trust in a process requires transparency, repeatability, and economic/mathematical soundness. - Process fidelity is essential, especially in dynamic environments like investing or executive decision-making. - Ensuring efficiency, repeatability, and soundness enhances confidence in the process. 44:57 *🎲 Understanding Skill and Luck* - Skill and luck are fundamental concepts influenced by various factors across different domains. - Luck tends to dominate in the short term due to the variance in outcomes, while skill shines through over longer periods. - Quantifying skill versus luck often involves statistical analysis and understanding their contributions to outcomes. 52:06 *🏆 Skills of Great Investors* - Great investors possess probabilistic thinking, discipline in maintaining positive expected value, and understanding the role of time. - They focus on maintaining edge, effective money management, and self-awareness to manage psychological biases. - Key attributes include probabilistic reasoning, disciplined decision-making, and recognizing the importance of time. Made with HARPA AI
@micahfares52707 жыл бұрын
I didn't think I will enjoy this one as much as I did. Will be listening to it again for sure, this time I will be ready to take notes!
@ztee100 Жыл бұрын
Very fruitful
@mikechan2313 жыл бұрын
This is just an amazing discussion.
@hiatuz35127 жыл бұрын
15 min in and I'm loving it I hear NLP in this interview.
@Edrin2227 жыл бұрын
@Chat With Traders amazing interview, thank you for always bringing great interviews to your viewership.
@subhrapratimpramanik71667 жыл бұрын
great work Aaron.So much of wisdom in a single session.
@frankiii45876 жыл бұрын
Another brilliant podcast. Thank You Aaron and Michael.
@SulianDeBois-si5sz5 ай бұрын
I hope a high probability to be a top trader
@TheInvestmentCircle5 жыл бұрын
This man is brilliant Aaron.
@josuesforza3 жыл бұрын
Amazing content. Thanks much!
@eyesoul87 жыл бұрын
Always listening to this podcast, very great work your doing. Was curious if you're able to get Dr. David Paul on the the cast?
@patrickt42257 жыл бұрын
Another great interview!
@islandparadise7 жыл бұрын
@chat with traders Been listening for a month. Great stuff on a macro view of how to approach trading :) Legit.
@SSEnrich3 жыл бұрын
Too much psychology. But I guess some need it. Trading psychology seems very repetitive to me. Different words to describe don't exit to early, don't trade too big size and don't doubt your decision making.
@educareprojectltd31597 жыл бұрын
Really good discussion..
@mcleonefontelo57137 жыл бұрын
Hi Aaron. Thank you so much for helping us out. Subbed and liked each video Ive'd watched so far.
@MuhammadAkram-sn5ve3 жыл бұрын
Hey bro i hope you're doing great, what about your trading now, if you would like to tell?
@Stingerca7 жыл бұрын
Thanks 4 reminding me to be aware. Also, the more skill I have the more luck comes my way.
@Stingerca7 жыл бұрын
Losing is like smoking. It's habit forming. Puggy Pearson
@ontrades11812 жыл бұрын
16:15
@cengizali53612 жыл бұрын
I dont bother correcting ppl on how to pronounce my first name anymore.
@genxchas5 жыл бұрын
confirmation bias #facts based theorum 👍😉 look for more vital solidified information