How to increase profits while decreasing your risk (Experienced Trader)

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SMB Capital

SMB Capital

Жыл бұрын

Grab a spot at SMB Trading Workshop: bit.ly/42fO8hk
#smbcapital #stockmarket #daytrading
SMB Disclosures www.smbtraining.com/blog/smb-...

Пікірлер: 125
@smbcapital
@smbcapital Жыл бұрын
bit.ly/42fO8hk
@dasfahrer8187
@dasfahrer8187 Жыл бұрын
One of my favorite variations of this is when the right side gets a shakeout candle (or brief cluster) with a nice, big wick on increased volume.
@BdDave82
@BdDave82 Жыл бұрын
Great video. I did that exact trade on $WAL. Bought at $12 and sold in the high $26 range. I was on the left side of the v and basically had no stop loss. In my mind I did but to be realistic probably not. Huge risk! You nailed it. Thank you so much!
@R_M.P
@R_M.P Жыл бұрын
Just what the doctor ordered. Great advice. Thanks Mike and Lance!
@jamesjohn1131
@jamesjohn1131 Жыл бұрын
I'm in the SMB Capital DNA course. In the weekly review zoom call Justin explained Lance's V concept to me when identifying a support or resistance area. Since then I've been more consistent with my trade wins.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
Love to hear it! Justin is the best.
@mbellafiore19
@mbellafiore19 Жыл бұрын
love hearing this James. Train well.
@akidaboissiere8604
@akidaboissiere8604 Жыл бұрын
I really needed this. Love you Lance and SMB. You guys put out the best content for retail traders.
@surajsrinivas7517
@surajsrinivas7517 Жыл бұрын
What a simple yet powerful concept explained so succinctly by Lance! Thank you!
@joefeinstein6804
@joefeinstein6804 Жыл бұрын
I do agree this is the top KZfaq trading channel. You guys are awesome! Thank you for the education.
@ryanmsalisbury5499
@ryanmsalisbury5499 Жыл бұрын
This is a great followup to the previous video on this! Thanks Lance!!
@ericstone4624
@ericstone4624 Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much. By being exposed to this concept again in this video, I am really beginning to visualize this and can see the potential edge and relatively low risk trading the right side of the V. Much appreciated.
@MeharBhogal
@MeharBhogal Жыл бұрын
I'm quite good at "knife catching" when the structure deems it safe to do so. However, I've had more success letting the market show me it'll hold that zone, and then entering just above at a more minor level which shows acceptance back into some mean reversion centre.
@jaimecr96
@jaimecr96 Жыл бұрын
Great video @TheOneLanceB ! In the last examples B also has less EV than A because the momentum traders who bought in A are Be/underwater, also the people who see the clear high are starting to short risking this one 😮 The best trades will never return to your entry point.
@FXTrader247
@FXTrader247 Жыл бұрын
Love these videos. Thank you SMB!
@KT-zx9jr
@KT-zx9jr Жыл бұрын
Thanks Mike n Lance. Great clip. On Part 1 I may add to have a "buy stop" in just above where you wish to enter along with Mark Douglas' old adage "each period (trade) in the market is unique..." Thks very much.
@markmcgwiresbackne5705
@markmcgwiresbackne5705 Жыл бұрын
One tip is start looking at your daily chart as a line chart, you can see the W's, V's, falling wedges etc.. I swing most of these now and typically want 3 weeks of consolidation but not always and measure most of these moves down. Pay attention to the break of monthly, weekly HI.Lows See $NSC, $GFS, $JNJ. $GD, $RTX and $QCOM have my attention right now.
@dianarabbanii2
@dianarabbanii2 11 ай бұрын
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680k savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
@jonathanburtnick
@jonathanburtnick 11 ай бұрын
An obvious way to lnvest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare companies, but off course such decisions cannot be made by an average Joe, a financial advisr is important in making this decisions
@naomigonzales9663
@naomigonzales9663 11 ай бұрын
@@jonathanburtnick Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the adv!ce of my financial-planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfoIio that has experienced exponential growth
@EmiliaAbelard
@EmiliaAbelard 11 ай бұрын
@@naomigonzales9663 I wholeheartedly concur, i have thought of engaging with an lnvestment coach, but don't really know how get one.
@naomigonzales9663
@naomigonzales9663 11 ай бұрын
@@EmiliaAbelard Viviana Marisa Coelho a registered Investment advisr. Quite renowned, search her name to get in touch
@scottjuarez9549
@scottjuarez9549 11 ай бұрын
@@naomigonzales9663 Great, I looked up Viviana Marisa Coelho online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-markt
@kellycline4431
@kellycline4431 Жыл бұрын
Love these videos, they help a lot. Thanks
@fornello123
@fornello123 Жыл бұрын
Great video. The changing probabilities underlies the problem with doing set-and-forget-style trade management. As the trade plays out, it is giving the trader new information that changes the probability of success and can be acted upon. For example if a breakout fails like in your ABC example, a wise trader can exit the position before price hits the stoploss and move on to another opportunity. A set-and-forget trader would lose all his risk plus slippage:
@nonamell2009
@nonamell2009 2 ай бұрын
The value of this concept cannot be understated And spectacular explanation I’m now searching for all of Lance’s videos
@nickpapageorgio4835
@nickpapageorgio4835 18 күн бұрын
I just spent the past 14 minutes getting told to trade with the trend and be mindful of my risk-to-reward.
@AtmanGoldenAge
@AtmanGoldenAge Жыл бұрын
Really excellent! Thx Lance.
@Arsenal2045
@Arsenal2045 Жыл бұрын
Lance is the best educator on youtube
@jash9897
@jash9897 Жыл бұрын
Great video thank you!!
@myrrhusa
@myrrhusa Жыл бұрын
Thanks! I have been waiting for this video, I think most traders intuitively know this, yet, hard to put it in practice, lack of patience is the #1 culprit!
@Serendipity11-er1ne
@Serendipity11-er1ne Ай бұрын
Thank you for your priceless lesson video.
@craigh5631
@craigh5631 Жыл бұрын
Watched a second time even better!!
@odahowe635
@odahowe635 Жыл бұрын
Thank you, Lance
@Alaksh19
@Alaksh19 Жыл бұрын
Had good understanding since I saw the V happen live in nifty index 5mins TF while watching your video in other monitor
@pmtix9819
@pmtix9819 Жыл бұрын
the last 2 mins and 20 secs of this video ....... #gem
@johnsnow9232
@johnsnow9232 Жыл бұрын
Valuable information 👍👍👍
@soprossok2910
@soprossok2910 Жыл бұрын
Thank for sharing.
@joefeinstein6804
@joefeinstein6804 Жыл бұрын
Brilliant as always, Lance - thank you. A video on how you decide on which stock to trade would be awesome!
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
Exists already :) m.kzfaq.info/get/bejne/m7t1aruWrcyqYpc.html
@user-xg5uv4hz6x
@user-xg5uv4hz6x Жыл бұрын
great vid,, more of these !!!
@ssamuel408
@ssamuel408 Жыл бұрын
Thank you.
@dend1
@dend1 Жыл бұрын
Doing this with options is another ball park. Contracts gain value after the turn. Less risk sometimes if you buy early in anticipation of the turn when they are cheap
@jdaniells1821
@jdaniells1821 Ай бұрын
pure Gold...thanks Lance!
@cogar313
@cogar313 Жыл бұрын
Thank you
@vvdd903
@vvdd903 6 ай бұрын
Thanks SMB!!
@dalekim
@dalekim 2 ай бұрын
absolutely amazing and made sense
@bigshrimpsheff
@bigshrimpsheff Жыл бұрын
great job lance
@Valach38
@Valach38 7 ай бұрын
This single vid changed my life lol, its funny looking back.
@cryptostu
@cryptostu Жыл бұрын
Great video l!
@forexkhan7421
@forexkhan7421 5 ай бұрын
Amazing detailed explanation. Indeed most people wouldn't even wait for the proper pull back.
@marklasky3555
@marklasky3555 Жыл бұрын
Nice reminder for success
@gregstewart8281
@gregstewart8281 Жыл бұрын
Thanks again for the video, You're right. You get a retracement level more than fifty percent. The likelihood of that trade working is low, I think it was Jesse Livermore. That's sad. He didn't mind paying up for good stock. IE paying for confirmation
@RikimaruNobunaga
@RikimaruNobunaga Жыл бұрын
truly priceless for us mortals, thanks dude
@davidzemke2549
@davidzemke2549 6 ай бұрын
I have a friend that calls this Free Parking. Great video
@tz8565
@tz8565 Жыл бұрын
6:30 Great info. 9:30 Good
@kentwist8533
@kentwist8533 4 ай бұрын
awesome!
@codfellaz
@codfellaz Ай бұрын
5:30 Determining the right time to take advantage of the right side of the V!
@thinkingaboutit2738
@thinkingaboutit2738 2 ай бұрын
Break of Prior Bar HIghs (or lows).... but is that just any break or do you wait for the close of that breaking candle to confirm the trend change, since the break could reverse by the time the candle closes?
@chrisv9977
@chrisv9977 Жыл бұрын
Gr8 vid lance. It makes sense on paper but for me in real time, I often find myself average bad prices when waiting for the turn and then get hammered or shaken out by HFT’s.. personally if I have strong conviction I like to wait for right side of the V with my entries but then add on the frontside when it drops or spikes.. maybe something to work on
@zehabeshatv5836
@zehabeshatv5836 Жыл бұрын
That will change your success rate 70% …I’m practicing that now.
@somedudeonyoutoob
@somedudeonyoutoob Ай бұрын
thank you lance for dropping gold
@markusthedrummer8143
@markusthedrummer8143 Жыл бұрын
The poker hand analogy really was an aha moment for me and such a great analogy
@lgomez5689
@lgomez5689 Жыл бұрын
breaking news slide looks a lot like earnings after-hours chart, thanks Lance B
@buzzdanker2832
@buzzdanker2832 Жыл бұрын
I do love me some upside V action.. lol.
@enriquetamarit3925
@enriquetamarit3925 4 ай бұрын
I think knowing what the Daily ATR is really helps to figure weather expected value is good or not.
@slee6593
@slee6593 7 ай бұрын
BEST!!!
@brucesmith6868
@brucesmith6868 Жыл бұрын
Interesting entry.
@craigh5631
@craigh5631 Жыл бұрын
Thanks Lance, Love you videos so many golden nuggets on all your input. Would you only apply this strategy to stocks in play I often see down lives that reverse at some point during the day would this be a good idea or just stick with stocks in play. Also I know volume bottoms which is a certain criteria of the most volume on the day on a 5 minute chart and then about 3% off it’s highs has pretty good probability for an up move trimming along the way with final target Vwap. What are the best probability plays on these reversals that you have seen? Thanks again ! on excellent trading information really love Lances takes and SMB capitals material.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
Almost always only in-play stocks. Otherwise too much randomness.
@manug3058
@manug3058 10 ай бұрын
Hi Lance, like your videos ! Bit confused about EV(A)>EV(B)>EV(C) at 10:54 timecode in the video. looks like Point A will likely have more false breakouts than Point B....newbie here. Thanks!
@chrishickman
@chrishickman 2 ай бұрын
Hard agree. I think he is referring to a higher time frame. On a low time frame like a 1 minute chart... That is a recipe for disaster. Fake breakouts galore. So I assume you need more confluence to identify a real breakout and false breakout. Seems like he is glossing over that fact probably due to that being a given for an experienced trader.
@roysmith8071
@roysmith8071 Жыл бұрын
I buy both those points, Plus a few more points further down the V
@rorinotengo173
@rorinotengo173 Жыл бұрын
Is there a video on how to calculate EV?
@KASUN_M
@KASUN_M Жыл бұрын
What time frame are you using
@tradingpoker1324
@tradingpoker1324 Жыл бұрын
I know Lance loves poker analogies. One very unique difference is that in poker if you fold to your opponents flop bet, you never know what your opponent had and you also don't know what the outcome (turn and river cards would be). However, in trading if you "fold" (exit a trade early or avoid a marginal trade) you still get to see the outcome!! Many fish in poker are calling stations because their curiosity gets the best of them and they must call to see their opponents cards.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
Great point
@FractalityX
@FractalityX 9 ай бұрын
It’s called a market maker model.
@joeblow5588
@joeblow5588 6 ай бұрын
What is EV ? How is it calculated ?
@omphilemataboge7746
@omphilemataboge7746 10 ай бұрын
I want to achieve growth at this level and I am going to achieve it with a resilient mindset, thanks to your online videos and videos on psychology by Mark Douglas. Tapping on beliefs that I have but are below my conscious threshold.
@bertt72
@bertt72 Жыл бұрын
Does this company trade Indicies ( SP500 Index for example) ?
@Waleedalmishal
@Waleedalmishal Жыл бұрын
Most trades don’t give you a chance to get in on the right side even though this is a common knowledge in the trading communities we still enter on the left side no confirmation no safety net just a level, and that’s what trading is if you can’t see the levels you won’t make it along side with a stock selection
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
I would disagree. Almost every trade does in my experience and I was operating at the lowest time frames possible.
@davidalpheaus3352
@davidalpheaus3352 9 ай бұрын
@@TheOneLanceBdo you mean you find the level on the 30 minute and then wait for the right side of the V on the 1 minute ??
@Ganondalf33
@Ganondalf33 3 ай бұрын
What are some of the things you look for to confirm you are on the right side of the V?
@flmason
@flmason Жыл бұрын
How does one accurately calculate the Probability of Profit in real time? EV is king... but can we accurately know what the EV is?
@VigneshRishab
@VigneshRishab 2 ай бұрын
I agree that many people are considering NVDA as the "Stock of the year." However, I'm curious about which stocks could potentially become the next META in terms of growth over the next decade. I've allocated $200k for investment, looking for companies to make additions to boost performance
@Donald-George
@Donald-George 2 ай бұрын
I think the next big thing will be A.I. For enduring growth akin to META, it's vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by short-term fluctuations. Prioritize patience and a long-term perspective consider financial advisory for informed buying and selling decisions.
@Owenra
@Owenra 2 ай бұрын
@@Donald-George A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
@Benedictrud
@Benedictrud 2 ай бұрын
@@Owenra Glad to have stumbled on this comment, Please who is the consultant that assist you and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
@Owenra
@Owenra 2 ай бұрын
​@@Benedictrud Suzanne Evelyn Rinelli
@Benedictrud
@Benedictrud 2 ай бұрын
@@Owenra I just looked up Suzanne online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call
@gavnonadoroge3092
@gavnonadoroge3092 Жыл бұрын
2:10 what is a fintwick career?
@gavnonadoroge3092
@gavnonadoroge3092 Жыл бұрын
@@TheOneLanceB thank you
@OurNewestMember
@OurNewestMember Жыл бұрын
1:12 "elite level capitulation trading" sometimes I feel that way, but I think we're talking about the opposite sides of the same trade 😂😂😂
@kataklysmdl
@kataklysmdl Жыл бұрын
Something is up with this video, the playback appears broken around 50 seconds.
@Jaysnipes
@Jaysnipes Жыл бұрын
This just happened on the $SPY at 2:09pm. I missed the opportunity to get back in though on the right side of the V, because I started looking at other stocks after I finished trading the SPY earlier.
@TradingWithHunter
@TradingWithHunter Жыл бұрын
i was waiting for the break of the 3 minute candle there at the bottom but it jumped up like 10 pips at once and missed my entry :(
@Jaysnipes
@Jaysnipes Жыл бұрын
@@TradingWithHunter I'm looking at the 3 min now. I think you had 2:15 / 2:18 & 2:21 to get in if you wanted some profit on the upside of that V. $SPY.
@davedavis7292
@davedavis7292 Жыл бұрын
Decent
@stocksqna
@stocksqna Жыл бұрын
Awesome video as always, could you guys please go into the nuances of this trade in a video that would be very helpful. lance has really helped in my trading and I'll be always grateful to the channel.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
What do you think are ALL the variables that would make a mean-reversion trade better? What makes one pattern better than another?
@stocksqna
@stocksqna Жыл бұрын
@@TheOneLanceB Well some of variables I can think of in mean-reversion trades are: some kind of catalyst that could cause an extreme move to either side, a capitulation move with volume extended than usual from the moving averages, move towards any kind of major support/resistance area from which it can bounce back, tape showing buyers/sellers stepping in after a huge capitulation move to the major support/resistance. I think the expected value of one setup makes it better than the other that depends on the combination of many factors coming together to form a trade.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
@@stocksqna those are great examples. Those are some of the nuances that might make a trade better or worse. And exactly as you say, we ideally want as many variables on our side as possible. I have another video for release next week that dives ia bit more into some of the variables and others you mention. Like size of move, volume, length of any consolidation, etc
@stocksqna
@stocksqna Жыл бұрын
@@TheOneLanceB awesome man, thank you so much. My learning curve has reduced so much since I started following you and SNB videos. It's really awesome that someone is sharing so much stuff selflessly.
@TheOneLanceB
@TheOneLanceB Жыл бұрын
@@stocksqna love to hear it!
@markhall8939
@markhall8939 5 ай бұрын
You are just giving examples of v's often a v becomes a retracement, or a double bottom or a reverse head and shoulders
@joeblow5588
@joeblow5588 11 ай бұрын
So great, just the usual, if the trader is subjected by account extinction through "death of a thousand cuts", oh well, the trader was not selective enough..
@Spinlayer
@Spinlayer 3 ай бұрын
He is like a politician. Art of speaking a lot but actually saying nothing or being redundant or extremely logical.
@erics4127
@erics4127 Жыл бұрын
the logical fallacy here is that you assume you know when the stock has turned. what info are you using to know/improve odds that it has turned my dude?
@erics4127
@erics4127 Жыл бұрын
@emmangeorge what? Go away
@WaveWatchTrading007
@WaveWatchTrading007 17 күн бұрын
Fighting the trend is 55% win rate? You lost me there 😂
@tzvassilev
@tzvassilev Ай бұрын
You need to have a solid fundamental stranding idea first and then you can think of a trade. The expected value is not possible to determine by chart patterns but it is always determined by a fundamental analysis of the micro and macro economic environment under consideration of geopolitical developments. If your fundamental idea is indeed good you can buy on the left side of the V like all the institutions do. If you have no fundamental idea then you shouldn’t be trading a stock, no matter what you see on the chart. This video proves once again that SMB is a bunch of con artists trying to catch naive retail traders.
@Livermore007
@Livermore007 2 ай бұрын
Not all of us have played poker. To better assist traders, it's essential to simplify your abstract conceptualizations. Otherwise, you risk defeating the very purpose you're trying to serve. Assume that people know nothing about what you're talking about.
@futurestraderES
@futurestraderES Ай бұрын
ITS ALL THE SAME STUFF. trading is easy didnt you know
@MrSmokinBeats
@MrSmokinBeats Жыл бұрын
@JamesWilliams-qn5cq
@JamesWilliams-qn5cq Жыл бұрын
Gr8 Werꓘ Thx a Ton for the Post
@_N0_0ne
@_N0_0ne Жыл бұрын
Thank you
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