How To Predict How Far Stocks Can Go In Any Given Time

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How To Predict How Far Stocks Can Go In Any Given Time | Expected Moves Tutorial

Рет қаралды 40,187

Күн бұрын

🟢 TRADE IDEAS & WATCHLIST: / figuringoutmoney
Technical Analysts use previous data to predict future price movements of stocks and index products (SPY, QQQ, IWM). The options market has great impact on the security and index products. By using implied volatility we can determine a risk range or what's known as an Expected Move.
The expected move is a calculation that I will share in this video that will give you a trading range in any given period of time that the stock market or equity will close within. There is a 68% probability of it happening and sometimes higher on big products like the SPX.
I like to look at weekly expected move to get an idea of just how volatile the next week of trading will me. If early in the week one of the levels is hit early on and is getting outside of the risk range, I will take profits, or fade the move.
In my opinion this is the best stock market indicator or tool that should be used by active traders in the market. It's a great way to help predict a stocks price= or range it will trade within.
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Пікірлер: 142

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

One of my favorite tools to use! 🟢 TRADE IDEAS & WATCHLIST: www.patreon.com/figuringoutmoney

@musikzmylife 2 жыл бұрын

Mike thank you so much your the absolute best

@fishfloridafreshwater5987 2 жыл бұрын

Is it possible to use the options market to find the 2nd and 3rd st deviations? Or does the options market only give the 1st standard deviation?

@jasonsharp8621 2 жыл бұрын

Probably one of the best videos I've seen on this topic. Keep them coming Mr. Silva.

@joshuajohnson9383 2 жыл бұрын

Get this man over 100k subs! Almost there!!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

🤗😎

@Tweetogreggieb59 3 ай бұрын

Two thumbs up 👍👍Good stuff, verifiable by your own due diligence. Video & Host recommended friend's and family. ✌😎

@ladyelvinaslivegigs713 2 жыл бұрын

Even though you explained how to find those ranges, please do still show them on your weekend videos, because not everybody trades options or have options trading platform! I don't, so i rely on your videos, and those have been extremely helpful! 🙏 if you show the exact number i can then plot it on my chart, thanks so much!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

will do!

@doahafez7196 2 жыл бұрын

Wow, what a smart tactic. This channel is way underrated.

@slevin4591 2 жыл бұрын

I alway appreciate you providing the ranges. You rock!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks slevin!

@ShoppingWithStyle 2 жыл бұрын

The expected move range is a statistically based way to look at probabilities, it is not '"hopium" based on fear, greed, or general craziness that seizes some traders. I always look at this. I switched to TOS because I like numbers-based rational predictions. Remember, it can go up or down this much. You still have to figure out direction, sometimes easier said than done. Look at put/call ratios, if you see mostly puts, traders are guessing a downward direction. It is up to you to agree or be a contrarian.

@lorensaunders5772 2 жыл бұрын

I like that cool trick of adding the ATM call and put price to approx. the expected move. Thanks for that tip.

@TayTaySongs 2 жыл бұрын

Always wondered how you come up with those numbers. Thank you. Great tutorial!

@claytonkr05 2 жыл бұрын

I also use the product depth tab on TOS to look for the current weeks open interest on the puts and calls to determine where the largest walls of contracts are, that behaves very similar to the risk range. Great stuff!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Great insight!

@aeonluger6927 2 жыл бұрын

I played around with the numbers one day and I think I realized if you add the 2 closest ask prices for calls and puts and divide that number by 2. You normally get a number .3 or so off from what the Think or Swim platform shows.

@watchingyoutalk6539 2 жыл бұрын

I love videos like this. Didn't know how to go back in time and get these levels. Perfect!

@MsTyrie Жыл бұрын

Great!! This helps us cleave our understanding of the VIX from that of implied volatility. Turns out these aren't based on the same thing. The VIX is based on the S&P futures (1st & 2nd contract months) and their degree of contango (or sometimes backwardation). Thanks!!

@VLAHECO 2 жыл бұрын

Broooooooo... This info is goldddddddd...OMG. . Thank you so muchhhhhh. THIS IS WHAT I WAS LOOKONG FOR..WOW

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Woop woop :)

@yk597 2 жыл бұрын

Mike, thanks for this great content. It will be awesome if you can include the EM for the big guns like Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Google in your weekly recap!

@Evandaman1 Жыл бұрын

I can't believe valuable info like this is available lol THANK YOU!!

@GQ70 2 жыл бұрын

Once again phenomenal work sir 🍾

@yaminatoday1151 2 жыл бұрын

I love learning new ways to trade options with more confidence. Thank you!!!

@ruthlessluder Жыл бұрын

I was asking in your videos how to do this but you never answered. Hah glad I found this video that you made a while back.

@bena4939 2 жыл бұрын

This was very helpful information about market movement and options pricing. Thank you Mike!

@emiliotriunfo2310 2 жыл бұрын

The mythical “bell shape” of Mr. GAUSS 🤓👌🏼👏🏼👏🏼

@paull2089 2 жыл бұрын

Wow, that was outstanding yet simple. Thanks for sharing.

@paulom2929 2 жыл бұрын

Super helpful thanks Mike. Maybe just a coincidence but I asked this question in your video yesterday and you posted this video today 😅 what are the chances haha

@paulverderber8680 2 жыл бұрын

+/-68%

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

that was clever paul

@GOjoe1970 2 жыл бұрын

Mike, I hake a quick question as to what video it was where you mentioned and I believe showed how to get the monthly risk range. Could you possibly mention which one it was? I know the weekly was presented in --- How To Predict How Far Stocks Can Go In Any Given Time | Risk Range Tutorial, which was a great video. Thank you.

@arthurkorff Жыл бұрын

4:24 simple way to do it is by going to the at the money strike. so it's at 452.69 so we're just going to be 453 and what i do is i would just add the ask of what it's currently selling at, the call and add it to what the put is currently going for too. which is on the ask. it'd be 3.84 plus 4.30 add that together it gives us 8 dollars and 14 cents. so as you can see that would be our plus or minus. so after i get that information i just go to the chart and i draw the lines out manually

@neiljohnston9890 2 жыл бұрын

Awesome vid, does anyone know if there is a script for this in Tradingview

@medlord9958 2 жыл бұрын

I'm glad I found this channel

@rayray893 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks! Clearly laid out analysis of a helpful tool.

@jims2987 2 жыл бұрын

This is brilliant. I use think or swim, but where is the option activity?

@jimsanityliu2318 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the excellent video. Does this method work for next 1 day range also?

@darrynjones1560 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for making this video. This information is treasure

@sunghokim4011 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks a lot for this valuable information. On my platform there are IV30, IV60, and IV90. Which one and how do I need to use? Thank you.

@bigle0072 Жыл бұрын

Thanks for the info very helpful, can this same formula be used to predict daily movement, for day trading?

@markmcelroy1256 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you thank you thank you!! 👍🏼👍🏼always appreciate your videos and education

@guneeta7896 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. A great video. Though I will need to rewatch it on a large screen to be able to see your screen :)

@teh_watcher 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent! Thanks in advance for the millions of dollars I'll be making in the future using this tool.

@astralislux305 2 жыл бұрын

I tried this last week and just checked the results. I'm amazed! I want to do it again this week but didn't check on Friday. Is there any way to find this week's weekly implied volatility?

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

You can use thinkback in TOS.

@astralislux305 2 жыл бұрын

@@FiguringOutMoney Thanks for the response. I'll have to figure out why I can't see it using "thinkback".

@VantageCollective 4 ай бұрын

It's a good way to time daily put scalps at the beginning on the following week, if the expected move played out on a friday, the following monday almost always has a retracement.

@hisathyagmail 2 жыл бұрын

Awesome as always.

@carlosyuriar809 Жыл бұрын

This was as great video, thank you ! This is great to set the price range for the week. Is there a way to see the price range for each day ? I'm using think or swim.

@carlosyuriar809 Жыл бұрын

Ok I see that a product with a daily option expiration. I was wanting to use this to look at Tqqq and Sqqq but they are based off QQQ so I can look at the daily on those. Since QQQ trades 24/5 at what time of the day would it be best to look at the option prices ?

@raytailor9251 Жыл бұрын

Good information!

@lmaostrnoob 6 ай бұрын

I have a question, how does this implied volatility levels have any strength when the implied volatility plus or minus is relative to the current stock price? So today if the stock is at 100 and plus or minus is 15. The range is 85-115. But next week the stock might be at 160 and plus or minus is now 12 so the range is now 148-172. So like how do we know which levels to trade from? On the option chain is the implied volatility based off of market open price for that expiration date? So IV may change but the reference price is static? Bc if it’s based off ofc hanging price action it’s difficult to trade levels when the levels are changing

@VantageCollective 4 ай бұрын

It's because of expiration, and opt-ex cycles. think of it as a way that price resets weekly, and depending on IMP, those chains adjust as price does.

@logicianmagician 2 жыл бұрын

How long after the 4PM EST close would you look on TOS for these levels, and does that matter?

@JR-od3gl 2 жыл бұрын

definitely a must watch

@6DonnieDarko Жыл бұрын

With this logic though, any product that you apply this to would have the highest likelihood of staying flat & not going up or down. & how often does that happen? 🤔

@lofinchill9425 2 жыл бұрын

This is money!!! Thank you

@bodhisoha 7 ай бұрын

The really important bit is at the end. Expected move trading SHOULD NEVER BE USED to time tops or bottoms unless you want to get crushed by the trend.

@Jack-ht5oe Жыл бұрын

Hi Mike, could you share the source you pull the values for your risk range Excel table from? I guess you are not updating all of them manually. Would be highly appreciated. Also thank you for the great content you deliver regularly.

@FiguringOutMoney Жыл бұрын

Hey there. I pull my expected moves all manually.

@Jack-ht5oe Жыл бұрын

@@FiguringOutMoney thanks for the quick reply. That's some effort your spending there

@Colin-tl1qx 2 жыл бұрын

Great video . I wonder if I can access think or swim in canada

@lorensaunders5772 2 жыл бұрын

Question on the last 20 seconds of your video... dynamic hedging may produce explosive moves in which direction exactly? Are you saying that defending those levels at the top means massive selling? Or does it mean massive covering and thus a higher move? Thoughts?

@bodhisoha 7 ай бұрын

That's where understanding option order flow and dealer positioning becomes critical. You need to see gamma exposure and whether dealers' will re-hedge or simply switch to the winning side so to speak. Expected move trading is mean regression trading. If you want to blow up your account this is the best way to do it. Trend-following trading is far safer. Never use expected move to time a top or a bottom unless you understand dealer positioning and how they will react to increased gamma exposure.

@santiagogil7117 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent Michael. Thanks

@xxsweetazchickxx9790 2 жыл бұрын

YOU are awesome!!! Thank you so much for showing us how to do this! 🙏❤

@iseetreesofgreen3367 2 жыл бұрын

There is also a StdDev indicator, wouldnt it achieve the same effect to just go to the weekly chart then apply the indicator too?

@rhyslud 2 жыл бұрын

You are the best! THE BEST. Thank you

@dky2120 2 жыл бұрын

Great stuff MIke

@simoto8327 2 жыл бұрын

thanks for the info as always very appreciate

@offhamsterwheel2789 2 жыл бұрын

Sink Swim charting has one call Standard Deviation 1 and 2, they are similar, right?

@danielgoss2506 Жыл бұрын

Instead of finding a weekly range, how would one use this same process to find daily range movements?

@FiguringOutMoney Жыл бұрын

Need a product with daily option Expiration

@nt9616 2 жыл бұрын

Great video, thank you.

@AnthonysBBQ 2 жыл бұрын

My Man, thanks for the info!

@TimelessEpicLegends 2 жыл бұрын

Fantastic info. Thank you.

@fidesedquivide3486 2 жыл бұрын

Would using SD be better?

@claytonkr05 2 жыл бұрын

I owe a lot to you for teaching this one, when I first started watching your channel and you mentioned this, I started looking to where I could find this information and incorporating it into my trading plan. It's awesome, almost like predicting the future 😎

@Jakeolivier1 10 ай бұрын

Where did the 5 come from?

@sessionsinparadise7357 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you sir. Question. Does the same method apply to figure out the expected move for intradays? The closing price of that day+ that same weeks expiration +/- move?

@arthurkorff Жыл бұрын

options decay over time. hope that helps.

@sessionsinparadise7357 Жыл бұрын

@@arthurkorff this absolutely works haha I just gotta make sure I get enough time out. If options didn’t have theta man it would be awesome haha

@arthurkorff Жыл бұрын

@@sessionsinparadise7357 tbh I don't know how to apply theta. I just know it's a thing. Trade wisely

@sessionsinparadise7357 Жыл бұрын

@@arthurkorff honestly all I know is theta burn happens 2 weeks out. On the final week of exp theta is kickin ass. Haha don’t play zero days unless it’s a quicky. I usually get 2 weeks + out and will play spy odte when I see a great set up like today 🙌

@acloudcloud 2 жыл бұрын

Michael , can you do the same with future contracts? such as /ES /NQ /YM? I do not see any implied volatility for these tickers? Please let us know. Thank you!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Yes you can! TOS has the expected moves in the same place. Or you can do it manually by adding up the ATM calls and puts

@NeoSoulCrew 2 жыл бұрын

Great video thank you.

@beau6113 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!!

@tradingstar4093 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much

@bssb936 2 жыл бұрын

Brilliant thanks 😊

@silaszebedee9331 2 жыл бұрын

amazin

@oleksandrselin8037 2 жыл бұрын

thank you very much

@CertPersTrainer 2 жыл бұрын

Does anyone know if Schwab has this ?

@kindredhawk 2 жыл бұрын

Solid advice

@moon8canoe 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

😊

@leonard0104 2 жыл бұрын

Thank. You!

@haneyheneidy7889 2 жыл бұрын

That was perfect!

@NickAshleyOfficial 2 жыл бұрын

Value, as always!

@anthonygibson1967 2 жыл бұрын

Hey Michael, What's your area of training? Coming from a statistician, you speak statistician language quite often ha.

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Do I? Lol, I am not a statistician. I don’t really have a specific area of training/formal education. I’ve worked in corporate America for a fortune 20 company for me entire adult life. The majority of my career involved looking at past data to forecast trends and create new strategies to reach them

@MegaAshfire 2 жыл бұрын

How long do you allow the trade to be outside the expected region?

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

That really comes down to what chart I am trading off of and what previous price action has done in that area. So if it comes out of the range, but two weeks ago on the chart I see a clear area of resistance or support outside of the range, I wouldn't mind holding it until the level is broken as long as it makes sense from a risk to reward perspective

@MegaAshfire 2 жыл бұрын

@@FiguringOutMoney hmm, understood, thanks for your response. 👍 Trading options becomes a problem when the resistance and support breaks fast, since option price loses value far too quickly.😔

@Bm09132 2 жыл бұрын

Can we get a scripts for this in TOS ?

@qahtanalqaysi5116 2 жыл бұрын

Listen 👂 carefully to the best of the best

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

😊 The Q Man!

@techjunky82 2 жыл бұрын

I have been wondering this for so long. Thank you so much.

@shanezirkle 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for taking the time to explain this!

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Very welcome! Thanks for the support

@seraphin01 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the daily update Michael 👍

@goodlifegreenscapesbrecken5928 2 жыл бұрын

What if more people than ever know about Put options and have opened named puts...thus the biggest bear market squeeze rally since 1932...?

@774471jr 2 жыл бұрын

Puts being closed don’t drive rallies, short sellers buying back shares does.

@BasedNation 2 жыл бұрын

Ty!!!!

@Salty_Biscuitz88 2 жыл бұрын

first to comment

@mikedok1 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks 🙏 for sharing Mike

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Welcome:)

@khoabui4157 2 жыл бұрын

Tastyworks also calculates the range for you with thin dashes line for 1 standard deviation move, and the wider dashes line further out for 2 standard deviation move. Very helpful for those who sell options.

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for letting us know!

@jb9652 2 жыл бұрын

Great - thanks!

@tsijr915 2 жыл бұрын

what if you're mid week like now, can this still be used to make a indicator "risk ranges"

@indianajones3315 2 жыл бұрын

If an asset has Wed opex (SPY, QQQ), you could do the calculation using both Wed to Wed and Fri to Fri.

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

you can still use it as a range because the range is always moving. However, I like to look at the weekly range to get a good idea for the following week. If you are mid week, like we are when i posted this. The TOS platform has a "thinkback" tab, to see what the range was on previous dates. There might even be an options website that can do this as well.

@tsijr915 2 жыл бұрын

@@indianajones3315 didn't even see this, came to see if anyone's mentioned spy, just noticed spy has 'dailies' on top of weekly options, thanks for this! now when you say both, you mean add monday wens and friday or just the last 2? Spy has monday to tues- then wed to thurs and there's a friday. Thanks in advance, sorry took a while to reply, youtube spammmed your notice downwards

@andreysorokin8230 2 жыл бұрын

Nobody can predict. And next leg is down because millions traders like you belive in up trend. My take profit 4100

@blindjedi4139 2 жыл бұрын

Wow! Thank you so much ! Appreciate this insight!! You’re the man!

@viper32nc11 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for sharing that and doing a great job explaining it!

@yaakd 2 жыл бұрын

can't you just use a standard deviation script

@FiguringOutMoney 2 жыл бұрын

I personally do it manually at EOD Friday. But there are scripts out there you can download

@yaakd 2 жыл бұрын

@@FiguringOutMoney right, yeah I use a great custom standard dev script on TOS, I like seeing how it’s calculated from the chain though , good stuff thanks.