Takeways: 0. Turning points are not breakouts. Turning points precede breakouts. If you buy at breakouts, you are already late, but you can still make money if you are systematic. 1. On a daily / weekly basis market moves are mostly random (ie. cannot be trivially attributed to few specific causes) 2. However, at specific times in market movements, markets signal they are close to top or bottom. These are called turning points, and these are not random and can be analyzed 3. Do not try to find turning point signals that work in EVERY turning point. If you do, you are working like every other analyst AND you will miss MOST turning points. Try to find consistent signals that work consistently for SOME turning points, and you will nail those turns AND you will be ahead of the herd on those points. Repeat the finding of these signals for the rest of the turning points (finding specific signals for them). 4. You don't need to nail 100% of turning points. Even if you nail c. 50% of turning points and on the rest of the turning points have tight controls when you are wrong, you will beat the market AND most hedge fund returns. 5. Milton W. Berg's approach is NOT 100% computerized/systematic trading. There is a deep market experience / pattern recognition decision embedded into his methodology. So statistical analysis + market experience. 6. Find your _own_ edge that allows you to see differently, but is still backed up by data and performance. 7. The ultimate time bomb ticking is the underlying total debt outstanding 8. Nothing is perfect, everything is probability. Adjust accordingly. 9. Everything I've learned, I've learned from humans.
@senorhedvoycez60175 жыл бұрын
One of the best interviews that Real Vision has done.
@aspencouloir7615 жыл бұрын
This guy is awesome to listen to! Thanks Grant and Real Vision.
@balzinderchhabra88045 жыл бұрын
Didn't know Robert De Niro was a hedge fund manager!
@felipeangel28235 жыл бұрын
Now I can't unsee it
@singaporeghostclub5 жыл бұрын
LOL
@joelpeters11255 жыл бұрын
lol!
@garryallison56795 жыл бұрын
I was watching this thinking the very same thing; then i scrolled down and saw your comment; the first one as well. I was in tears. Thanks. Garry
@joejohn.5 жыл бұрын
Only 50% De Niro. The other half being Harvey Keitel.
@ShaneHummus5 жыл бұрын
It's hard to find the dip or the peak, but as long we trade or investment in the right way or based on your plan with proper risk management. You are in a good track.
@reventon2115 жыл бұрын
The Kiril Sokoloff Real Vision interview with Stanley Druckenmiller, the David Rubenstein Peer to Peer interview with Jeff Bezos, and this interview are among the best I've listened to in a long time. Thanks for the great interview!!
@Fresse5 жыл бұрын
Fascinating guy. Lot's of insightful info and I love that he brought notes.
@istvanpraha5 жыл бұрын
I'm taking notes! I'm sick of people with less $$ than me saying you can't time the market!
@devranbruinen42635 жыл бұрын
This guy is a genius, glad i found this video! I am an investor myself also looking for tops and bottoms, however i look at individual stocks instead of the whole market. This video gave me some ideas to explore and maybe add to my strategy. Thank you!
@saurabh19813 жыл бұрын
Interested in how you do it - what kind of indicators?
@devranbruinen42633 жыл бұрын
@@saurabh1981 None. Indicators are worthless.
@Daniel-gq1xy2 жыл бұрын
This video is incredible. Thank you. Five day volume. Never would have put that in my list without this video.
@julieta2033 жыл бұрын
I can call market tops and bottoms to the day and even to the hour, minute sometimes. Everytime I buy its a top and everytime I sell its the absolute low!
@mohammadsohebabdulmajid29555 жыл бұрын
really great conversation . thanks for giving us the opportunity to learn from it.
@basildog0075 жыл бұрын
Holy cow this is fascinating
@freedomnsurvival84725 жыл бұрын
Ah, buy signal , not bicycle .
@SunRabbit5 жыл бұрын
Subscribed! Thanks for the interview. Milton Berg is definitely an on-the-level guy and I like how he doesn't talk down to his audience. He must've revealed a couple of his trade secrets because I never heard of a lot of his indicators.
@stcegolf5 жыл бұрын
I have a theory that the mentally unstable can sense societal and economic shifts before the rest of us can because the chemicals in their brain are already sensitive. Any changes to their environment, and they freak out. I'm basically using my sister and brother as economic indicators. We'll see how it works
@rebellucy56105 жыл бұрын
Well that explains George Soros success.
@santoshragi5 жыл бұрын
LOL! You are using your sister & brother as economic indicators. Lucky them :-) But I do see your point. Keep us posted on its validity.
@dt-jy1ig5 жыл бұрын
stcegolf Soros said he would pay attention to things like his back. If it started hurt he took that as an indicator
@nukelaloosh47955 жыл бұрын
the only interview on this channel i will watch 2x
@paulrtjohnson80284 жыл бұрын
Milton Berg is brilliant. As a client of my trading group we watched home pick market tops and bottoms, especially in bond market. He was often the largest trader institutional account, for the CBOT’s bond contract, those days. Pay attention to his advice!
@OnSiteTrav3 жыл бұрын
Best real vision video thus far
@Unsupervised5 жыл бұрын
This is great. I hope to hear more from Mr. Berg in the near future.
@piratexlife5 жыл бұрын
Thanks for all the Great info...
@dennishill83565 жыл бұрын
Very sharp cat. Valuable insights. Thanks for taking the time to share.
@Mandems963 жыл бұрын
man he just cemented my idea to go into astroeconomics THIS IS A SIGN FOR ME. great video !
@PaulRizzo5044 жыл бұрын
" we monitor eclipses" I was with you up to that point.....
@marcgerges13803 жыл бұрын
Milton is a different perspective on the market, really awesome
@LeaPustetto5 жыл бұрын
Wow fantastic video. One of the best. What an amazing guy. You have to have him on again and be more specific jn this time period. Congrats
@Dom_24444 жыл бұрын
Just watched this yesterday. Today marks March 9th, 2020. There is a full moon and look at what happened to the market. Astonishing
@chrisjefferis19305 жыл бұрын
Monetary easing from 1982 occurred for a reason. It paralleled the growth of derivative and ABS markets that enabled risk transfer. This drove interest rates down. There are other risk management technologies including automation of production and supply chains which can provide downward pressure on the cost of risk.
@yavormarinov58815 жыл бұрын
if he is so good in his predictions, why isnt he in FORBES top 100 ?
@SpanishReviews5 жыл бұрын
He sells info to funds or money managers. He is not actually trading his own money. That is what he tells in the interview.
@infiltr80r5 жыл бұрын
Because he's full of crap. He was bearish in 2016. He might be right by 2026 but who cares. Anyone can say "we'll have a bear market in the next 10 years", you cannot profit off of that.
@dmounts99995 жыл бұрын
@@infiltr80r Might want to re-listen.
@1966human5 жыл бұрын
Is there a share fund from 1900 still operational now ?
@minedustry5 жыл бұрын
The title should have been named. Buy low, short high.
@willophuis4505 жыл бұрын
you sell when you short.
@davidbarnett16315 жыл бұрын
good interview, thanks keep em comin
@pontonsky5 жыл бұрын
This guy is phenomenal
@prettybrwneyez77575 жыл бұрын
This was EXCELLENT!!
@coryg1215 жыл бұрын
Great interview!! I love seeing a money manager who’s actually trying to dramatically outperform the s&p.
@rebellucy56105 жыл бұрын
Reminds me of a Jewish (Deniro like) mafia boss.
@IntrospectiveLife5 жыл бұрын
Fascinating stuff @realvision
@LeaPustetto5 жыл бұрын
Where can i find the transcript please. I tried the link but couldn't find it
@tigerwolf83385 жыл бұрын
This is brilliant!
@B3nzSh0xX3 жыл бұрын
Is there any book, explaining what this guy is talking about, way more in detail? It is a very fascinating thesis.
@rogerfeldman66855 жыл бұрын
The year is 2029. In 2010 I bought 1,000 bitcoin for .25 cents. I spent most of them on pizza. I managed to keep 100 even though my pizza urge is still strong. The price is now $500,000. Problem is
@Hope4Today95 жыл бұрын
What is a "major Montgomert cycle date" @ 45:14 ????
@Alltechbyindian5 жыл бұрын
Nice video
@marsmotion5 жыл бұрын
@starting 12:11 all turns of the market are sentiment based not fundamentals based. later all markets are about human emotion. could not agree more. yeah know your fundamentals but....yeah thats a good tip. try looking at sunspots and cosmic rays. @43:11 the debt time bomb and yeah thats a good word for it.
@Goodpeace35 жыл бұрын
Incredible ...
@rainmaker7045 жыл бұрын
Great insight!
@Figuring4775 жыл бұрын
wow! A great interview
@russellschaeffler5 жыл бұрын
Isn't there a shift every 3 to 4 months based on business quarters opening and closing?
@mitchellrosenthal63055 жыл бұрын
This is compelling content, almost on a different plane than the videos on bitcoin. Keep bringing speakers with compelling research.
@stacknsat5 жыл бұрын
Mitchell Rosenthal what do you mean?
@mitchellrosenthal63055 жыл бұрын
@@stacknsat This guy has a methodical approach, has a lot of research and data to draw on, and discusses his inspiration and practical experiences. The bitcoin guys just share their own philosophy about how promising the tech is, but the discussion is not rigorous at all and not backed by a lot of research or data. It's difficult to tell how much is hype. And a lot of it is very primitive technical analysis as well. Not anywhere close to Guy Cerundolo's analysis (another awesome Real Vision guest, his picks have done quite well!)
@xiangyang994 жыл бұрын
This interview is great, intellectually mesmerizing. To summarize it in one sentence: Market is a voting machine, period.
@kadenabet5 жыл бұрын
Imagine being this guy and not understanding that finance is completely seperated from the market and 99.9% of the trades are generated from stochastic methods that are modelling noise at best and use each others prices as technical indicators to boot.
@ligneusbc.9555 жыл бұрын
Good stuff!
@Hey.bekind777y3 жыл бұрын
The last eclipse was on June 5 and the market topped out one trading day after that in 2020
@sarahnikas13443 жыл бұрын
23:00
@jonl91925 жыл бұрын
This sounds great on paper, but theres a reason hes not next to Buffet on forbes. What happens when you get out? Do u exit all positions? Only some? Which ones? What if mrkt keeps rallying? Do u wait patiently on side lines? How long do you wait? Very quickly you can see this type of ‘investing’ lead to chaos and distress. My answer: Just buy cashflow and carry a few long-term(5-20yrs) ‘moonshot’ investments.
@blackphillip23935 жыл бұрын
almost lost me at the celestial influence bit ... LOL "I"m not a moon guy" -- thanks Milton
@zjxn065 жыл бұрын
Berg (10:43): " Benjamin Graham has been misquoted...very much misquoted. They say that Benjamin Graham said " In the short term the stock market is a voting machine. But, in the long term the stock market is a weighing machine." Benjamin Graham never said that.". Perhaps he never said it, but he certainly meant it. Here's what Graham wrote in Security Analysis: The Relationship of Intrinsic Value to Market Price. The gen- eral question of the relation of intrinsic value to the market quotation may be made clearer by the following chart, which traces the various steps culminating in the market price. It will be evident from the chart that the influence of what we call analytical factors over the market price is bothpartial and indirect-partial, because it frequently competes with purely speculative factors which influence the price in the opposite direction; and indirect, because it acts through the intermediary of people’s senti- ments and decisions. In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.
@margaretrose87075 жыл бұрын
I believe he is saying that it is always a voting machine and not a weighing machine
@TW0man4RMY5 жыл бұрын
Buy high; sell low.
@AZmisc5 жыл бұрын
If ya soo good at calling tops and bottoms just trade for your own book. Amirite???
@JesseAdamson5 жыл бұрын
Naw I think if you are good you get piles of other people's money and charge them a % of the fund and a % of the profits and then eventually you end up owning half of the fund and you close it and retire.
@wesha39535 жыл бұрын
its all about probabilities, and now the probability of him getting paid is 100%
@escapefelicity29135 жыл бұрын
"December this year" YIKES! 2019-07-21 13:09:08.13 GMT +7
@wesleyherrera93235 жыл бұрын
I just gone to say wow
@vijnp5 жыл бұрын
A maestro
@begonebegone78253 жыл бұрын
Let's be honest, nobody knows what he's talking about.
@Tariqslo3 жыл бұрын
There is more money lost in crash enticipation than all of the downturn loses.....COMBINED! Nobody is able to time the market long term, not even you, if you could you would be the richest man by far very fast
@youngsamuel15 жыл бұрын
This guy is like the movie character who has disheveled papers and crazy hair telling those in charge "something is fundamentally wrong" and no one listens... Markets have nothing to do with finance but politics.
@dickritchie25964 жыл бұрын
Who knew Mike Tyson was on Wall Street.
@SM-sb4tr5 жыл бұрын
32:27 cause.....[what?]
@SM-sb4tr5 жыл бұрын
@TIOUR Anas thanks
@Deezmok5 жыл бұрын
Lol I have the same shoes as the guy on the right
@jholid6y5 жыл бұрын
Who’s mad right now bc they could’ve skipped college and just catch tops and bottoms by looking at the moon.
@melophoga4 жыл бұрын
I guess he was right...
@greigsanderson5 жыл бұрын
Invest $1 in 1900. Today's it's worth $658.
@xopcapital99865 жыл бұрын
The 5 day volume study into a major market turn is really curious. I saw a bloke a twitter analyse it after this interview and the findings were useful ( @V_POC )
@DustinLives5 жыл бұрын
Thank you real vision for highlighting someone who quietly does their work. This made me become a believer because I watched Bloomberg in 2015 and saw Milton telling the hosts a bear market is coming and they didn't believe him. Well 2016 was pretty rough and Milton was right. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/h8xkp9WfnNvHd3k.html This video shows how right he was about stocks in the intermediate-term (6-9 months) and how wrong the talking heads were.
@infiltr80r5 жыл бұрын
What bear market? There hasn't been a real bear market since 08-09-
@MacroAnarchy2 жыл бұрын
Just short the top and long the bottoms. Easy. Hedgefonds don’t want you to know this trick. Lol there’s INFINITE of those, just a matter of timeframe, what is he even talking about.
@stevengross41135 жыл бұрын
When I was young I believed this nonsense. People see what they want to see. Pick up a book and learn some statistics and you'll begin to understand.
@garryallison56795 жыл бұрын
He's got to be de niro's twin bro
@randomthoughtguy52095 жыл бұрын
Grant Williams is like "WTF, this guy is such BS"
@kktsvetkov9 ай бұрын
Actually Grant Williams "hunted" down Milton Berg for this interview, and he shared how happy he was for Milton to agree to do it. It was one of the last interviews Grant did before leaving Real Vision. Grant later invited Milton back to his new podcast, "The End Game", in 2021.
@mygaragebandsongs79395 жыл бұрын
Moon?
@sirfrozsomji39845 жыл бұрын
Stock markets are and always have been manipulated, eg - insider trading, etc. Look at the case of Joseph Kennedy. One of a small number who had made a huge amount of money - reported to be 100 million? Starting with 1 million dollar from his bootlegging activities amongst other things - to come out of the crash on top. Stock market manipulation and insider trading (legal in those days) as his tools.
@chickeninasal43815 жыл бұрын
But then short term taxes! 😢😢😢😢
@levi29545 жыл бұрын
Milton Berg trades Bitcoin!
@SuperBullyone5 жыл бұрын
studied talmudic law and then went into the market as a fund manager?
@TrueGritProductions5 жыл бұрын
Jeffrey Epstein was a lowly math teacher before he was "chosen" as a hedge fund manager... hmm and worked with Soros too? Nah, they don't exercise in-group preference do they
@infiltr80r5 жыл бұрын
Helps to be Jewish in finance, it's easy entry. Others have to work for it.
@SuperBullyone5 жыл бұрын
@@infiltr80r its bullshit, then he brings number theory from the study of the Talmud and applied it to the stock market or equity markets, again bullshit. Numerology is random pattern matching.
@erichahn50005 жыл бұрын
The moon-lunar-luna-lunatic. That's where the word comes from.
@Hey.bekind777y3 жыл бұрын
well the market is based on the moon phase too
@basildog0075 жыл бұрын
So we'll have to follow the moon cycles from now on. Ok.
@memetastic1005 жыл бұрын
The piece on that guys head tho - Yikes!
@ceb78945 жыл бұрын
Please this guy has had life handed to him on a silver menorah
@MetalBum5 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the videos real vision finance. A lot of great work. You've inspired me to make my own youtube channel. Please check it out. It's not as good but I'm a pretty decent investor and have about 3m in net worth
@mollyjarman11515 жыл бұрын
Not just the 🌓 phases! You need to combine it with the way my cat 🐈 farts smell. My cat’s bottom tells me when the markets bottom! I am not a cat bottom guy, or a totally fruit 🎂; I am a data guy!
@looper11125 жыл бұрын
Market always goes back to fair value, simply because it lies between irrational fear and irrational optimism.