Takeways: 0. Turning points are not breakouts. Turning points precede breakouts. If you buy at breakouts, you are already late, but you can still make money if you are systematic. 1. On a daily / weekly basis market moves are mostly random (ie. cannot be trivially attributed to few specific causes) 2. However, at specific times in market movements, markets signal they are close to top or bottom. These are called turning points, and these are not random and can be analyzed 3. Do not try to find turning point signals that work in EVERY turning point. If you do, you are working like every other analyst AND you will miss MOST turning points. Try to find consistent signals that work consistently for SOME turning points, and you will nail those turns AND you will be ahead of the herd on those points. Repeat the finding of these signals for the rest of the turning points (finding specific signals for them). 4. You don't need to nail 100% of turning points. Even if you nail c. 50% of turning points and on the rest of the turning points have tight controls when you are wrong, you will beat the market AND most hedge fund returns. 5. Milton W. Berg's approach is NOT 100% computerized/systematic trading. There is a deep market experience / pattern recognition decision embedded into his methodology. So statistical analysis + market experience. 6. Find your _own_ edge that allows you to see differently, but is still backed up by data and performance. 7. The ultimate time bomb ticking is the underlying total debt outstanding 8. Nothing is perfect, everything is probability. Adjust accordingly. 9. Everything I've learned, I've learned from humans.

One of the best interviews that Real Vision has done.

This guy is awesome to listen to! Thanks Grant and Real Vision.

Didn't know Robert De Niro was a hedge fund manager!

It's hard to find the dip or the peak, but as long we trade or investment in the right way or based on your plan with proper risk management. You are in a good track.

The Kiril Sokoloff Real Vision interview with Stanley Druckenmiller, the David Rubenstein Peer to Peer interview with Jeff Bezos, and this interview are among the best I've listened to in a long time. Thanks for the great interview!!

Fascinating guy. Lot's of insightful info and I love that he brought notes.

I'm taking notes! I'm sick of people with less $$ than me saying you can't time the market!

This guy is a genius, glad i found this video! I am an investor myself also looking for tops and bottoms, however i look at individual stocks instead of the whole market. This video gave me some ideas to explore and maybe add to my strategy. Thank you!

This video is incredible. Thank you. Five day volume. Never would have put that in my list without this video.

I can call market tops and bottoms to the day and even to the hour, minute sometimes. Everytime I buy its a top and everytime I sell its the absolute low!

really great conversation . thanks for giving us the opportunity to learn from it.

Holy cow this is fascinating

Ah, buy signal , not bicycle .

Subscribed! Thanks for the interview. Milton Berg is definitely an on-the-level guy and I like how he doesn't talk down to his audience. He must've revealed a couple of his trade secrets because I never heard of a lot of his indicators.

I have a theory that the mentally unstable can sense societal and economic shifts before the rest of us can because the chemicals in their brain are already sensitive. Any changes to their environment, and they freak out. I'm basically using my sister and brother as economic indicators. We'll see how it works

the only interview on this channel i will watch 2x

Milton Berg is brilliant. As a client of my trading group we watched home pick market tops and bottoms, especially in bond market. He was often the largest trader institutional account, for the CBOT’s bond contract, those days. Pay attention to his advice!

Best real vision video thus far

This is great. I hope to hear more from Mr. Berg in the near future.

Thanks for all the Great info...

Very sharp cat. Valuable insights. Thanks for taking the time to share.

man he just cemented my idea to go into astroeconomics THIS IS A SIGN FOR ME. great video !

" we monitor eclipses" I was with you up to that point.....

Milton is a different perspective on the market, really awesome

Wow fantastic video. One of the best. What an amazing guy. You have to have him on again and be more specific jn this time period. Congrats

Just watched this yesterday. Today marks March 9th, 2020. There is a full moon and look at what happened to the market. Astonishing

Monetary easing from 1982 occurred for a reason. It paralleled the growth of derivative and ABS markets that enabled risk transfer. This drove interest rates down. There are other risk management technologies including automation of production and supply chains which can provide downward pressure on the cost of risk.

if he is so good in his predictions, why isnt he in FORBES top 100 ?

Is there a share fund from 1900 still operational now ?

The title should have been named. Buy low, short high.

good interview, thanks keep em comin

This guy is phenomenal

This was EXCELLENT!!

Great interview!! I love seeing a money manager who’s actually trying to dramatically outperform the s&p.

Reminds me of a Jewish (Deniro like) mafia boss.

Fascinating stuff @realvision

Where can i find the transcript please. I tried the link but couldn't find it

This is brilliant!

Is there any book, explaining what this guy is talking about, way more in detail? It is a very fascinating thesis.

The year is 2029. In 2010 I bought 1,000 bitcoin for .25 cents. I spent most of them on pizza. I managed to keep 100 even though my pizza urge is still strong. The price is now $500,000. Problem is

What is a "major Montgomert cycle date" @ 45:14 ????

Nice video

@starting 12:11 all turns of the market are sentiment based not fundamentals based. later all markets are about human emotion. could not agree more. yeah know your fundamentals but....yeah thats a good tip. try looking at sunspots and cosmic rays. @43:11 the debt time bomb and yeah thats a good word for it.

Incredible ...

Great insight!

wow! A great interview

Isn't there a shift every 3 to 4 months based on business quarters opening and closing?

This is compelling content, almost on a different plane than the videos on bitcoin. Keep bringing speakers with compelling research.

This interview is great, intellectually mesmerizing. To summarize it in one sentence: Market is a voting machine, period.

Imagine being this guy and not understanding that finance is completely seperated from the market and 99.9% of the trades are generated from stochastic methods that are modelling noise at best and use each others prices as technical indicators to boot.

Good stuff!

The last eclipse was on June 5 and the market topped out one trading day after that in 2020

23:00

This sounds great on paper, but theres a reason hes not next to Buffet on forbes. What happens when you get out? Do u exit all positions? Only some? Which ones? What if mrkt keeps rallying? Do u wait patiently on side lines? How long do you wait? Very quickly you can see this type of ‘investing’ lead to chaos and distress. My answer: Just buy cashflow and carry a few long-term(5-20yrs) ‘moonshot’ investments.

almost lost me at the celestial influence bit ... LOL "I"m not a moon guy" -- thanks Milton

Berg (10:43): " Benjamin Graham has been misquoted...very much misquoted. They say that Benjamin Graham said " In the short term the stock market is a voting machine. But, in the long term the stock market is a weighing machine." Benjamin Graham never said that.". Perhaps he never said it, but he certainly meant it. Here's what Graham wrote in Security Analysis: The Relationship of Intrinsic Value to Market Price. The gen- eral question of the relation of intrinsic value to the market quotation may be made clearer by the following chart, which traces the various steps culminating in the market price. It will be evident from the chart that the influence of what we call analytical factors over the market price is bothpartial and indirect-partial, because it frequently competes with purely speculative factors which influence the price in the opposite direction; and indirect, because it acts through the intermediary of people’s senti- ments and decisions. In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather should we say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion.

Buy high; sell low.

If ya soo good at calling tops and bottoms just trade for your own book. Amirite???

"December this year" YIKES! 2019-07-21 13:09:08.13 GMT +7

I just gone to say wow

A maestro

Let's be honest, nobody knows what he's talking about.

There is more money lost in crash enticipation than all of the downturn loses.....COMBINED! Nobody is able to time the market long term, not even you, if you could you would be the richest man by far very fast

This guy is like the movie character who has disheveled papers and crazy hair telling those in charge "something is fundamentally wrong" and no one listens... Markets have nothing to do with finance but politics.

Who knew Mike Tyson was on Wall Street.

32:27 cause.....[what?]

Lol I have the same shoes as the guy on the right

Who’s mad right now bc they could’ve skipped college and just catch tops and bottoms by looking at the moon.

I guess he was right...

Invest $1 in 1900. Today's it's worth $658.

The 5 day volume study into a major market turn is really curious. I saw a bloke a twitter analyse it after this interview and the findings were useful ( @V_POC )

Thank you real vision for highlighting someone who quietly does their work. This made me become a believer because I watched Bloomberg in 2015 and saw Milton telling the hosts a bear market is coming and they didn't believe him. Well 2016 was pretty rough and Milton was right. kzfaq.info/get/bejne/h8xkp9WfnNvHd3k.html This video shows how right he was about stocks in the intermediate-term (6-9 months) and how wrong the talking heads were.

Just short the top and long the bottoms. Easy. Hedgefonds don’t want you to know this trick. Lol there’s INFINITE of those, just a matter of timeframe, what is he even talking about.

When I was young I believed this nonsense. People see what they want to see. Pick up a book and learn some statistics and you'll begin to understand.

He's got to be de niro's twin bro

Grant Williams is like "WTF, this guy is such BS"

Moon?

Stock markets are and always have been manipulated, eg - insider trading, etc. Look at the case of Joseph Kennedy. One of a small number who had made a huge amount of money - reported to be 100 million? Starting with 1 million dollar from his bootlegging activities amongst other things - to come out of the crash on top. Stock market manipulation and insider trading (legal in those days) as his tools.

But then short term taxes! 😢😢😢😢

Milton Berg trades Bitcoin!

studied talmudic law and then went into the market as a fund manager?

The moon-lunar-luna-lunatic. That's where the word comes from.

So we'll have to follow the moon cycles from now on. Ok.

The piece on that guys head tho - Yikes!

Please this guy has had life handed to him on a silver menorah

Thanks for the videos real vision finance. A lot of great work. You've inspired me to make my own youtube channel. Please check it out. It's not as good but I'm a pretty decent investor and have about 3m in net worth

Not just the 🌓 phases! You need to combine it with the way my cat 🐈 farts smell. My cat’s bottom tells me when the markets bottom! I am not a cat bottom guy, or a totally fruit 🎂; I am a data guy!

Market always goes back to fair value, simply because it lies between irrational fear and irrational optimism.