The key is Risk Reward. After losing 10 10 10 10 4 consecutive losses You have that setup which cover all 4 or at least 3 on one go.. Choose your setup which gives higher reward when it works

For those that might’ve noticed, I started adding timestamps to these longer videos to make it easier to skip to different sections👍🏼Hope it helps!

lost my confidence after a major losing streak. blew 5 accounts in total but your teachings made me realize i could build it back. Thanks Matt

Thanks Matt. I've been a little down with my recent failures. But after much effort and research I came to the conclusion that... My personal strategy is not bad per se. Is probably that I'm not consistent enough, and still fail to see much, but that final table reminded me that, even if I have a super decent 70% win rate I still can have big consecutive loose streaks and that doesn't mean that i shouldn't continue, and that gives me some confidence. Thanks. Time to get up from bed and go back to the charts I guess.

Amazing video, I loved that probability chart at the end. This video really put things into perspective for me.

The part with consecutive losses was super interesting, thank you so much for this information !

Solid breakdown. I needed this after having 3 consecutive losses!

This is great. I remember the first time I saw this video, he explains well how probability works in trading.

One of the best and important trading video I’ve seen on KZfaq 🙌

Thank you for what you do my man

this video helped me a lot

Thank you my guy, this video actually helped

You are a gem. Hugely motivating knowledge. Loved it.

Just what I needed to hear

Thank you sir!

great stuff!

Thank you.... ❤️

Very interesting information ❤ but I bet most traders will quit or take a break from trading after those many consecutive losses right before when their winning streak is about to start 😄

The idea is to make the distribution slightly more skew cause it will always be a normal distribution at the end

very informative video sir.

Thank you.

I want to always make a profit. Now I'm still learning in the nfc community. thanks for the video.

Hey Matt, great video. One question, where can I find the way you calculated the last table? The one with a prob of getting consecutive loses depending on wining rate??

great vid

would you guys consider a strategy that has a "certain" 50% winrate to apply to all currency pairs? or would it change meaning in one currency pair to be different winrate than another.

Good day Please i want to confirm if the probability of consecutive losses chart is very correct 😊 Like if the chart is 💯 accurate Coz on digit trading i used a 90% win ratio by choosing the selection to be either one of the nine numbers i selected..(from ten possible numbers) And i had four losses in a row before i decided to stop because the loss was big and i was using martingale 😢😂....5 in a row might be possible i just want to confirm And whats the formula for calculating the probability of consecutive losses

Probability in Trading

After 6 rolls the sum of the die totaled 18, divide that by 6 and you got 3 🤔🤯

Ok, so you're saying that we need a larger sample (meaning a large amount of trades) and let the probabilities take their course. The problem with that is that the more trades you make, the more money (larger account) you need. And, if you have a strategy with a lower winning rate, then you will be losing a lot of money and may blow up your account before you start hitting winning streaks. So, I don't see the benefit of letting probabilities rules determine whether I trade or not. The key is to have a strategy with a higher winning rate, do money management, etc.

If I buy or sell randomly at 1:1 ratio then there will be 50/50 change to win or lose.

🌱

5:55 no, just no. That's not how probability works. A 50/50 chance on an individual roll / flip does not result in an [roughly] even total of outcomes over a large sample size. The 50% chance is only applicable to that one single roll, 2 outcomes, one or the other. The sample size will smooth the resulting outcome, but it will, without a doubt, be skewed to either heads or tails. Once the sample has been taken, that's when you can apply an overall probability to the system: This coin, in this setting, flipped in this particular way, has a probability of x% to land on heads / tails. Basically what you're saying is, if you hit 5 heads in a row, you *could* reasonably expect to hit 5 trails in a row after, which is not right. In the same way the argument about the 30% win rate in the short term VS the 70% win rate over the long term is also out of context. In the short term, the trader is at a loss. Noting "oh but he's a 70% winner" after the fact doesn't change the short term loss rate. If we know before seeing the short term loss, that the trader has a 70% win rate, similar to the coin flip system noted above, where we've taken the larger sample, and therefor can say x % probability, it is a requirement to know the sample size and outcome of the trader over the long term, before stating the short term loss, for it to be correctly considered in context. Just to be clear, i like your channel, and I have watched a fair amount of your shorts, but this one is just not right.

People have been saying that the probability chart at the end is wrong, but it is just misleading...given a small enough sample size (100 trades, let's say) it would be more accurate. The larger the sample size you look at, the more inaccurate it becomes, specifically for the many 0%s you have at the end...there is NEVER a 0% chance of consecutive losses. As an example, 9 losses in a row is possible for someone with a 90% win ratio because they could easily have 1 loss, 90 wins, 9 losses (or those 9 losses in a row anywhere in the sequence...could even have 10 losses in a row). The chances of consecutive losses in a row will also change based on the sample size, though only marginally (and you're dealing with whole numbers for simplicity's sake...which, to be honest, is probably the biggest mistake when dealing with probabilities and statistical chance...in which case you should round up, not down)

What is the drawdown after the first set of losses. He will have lesser capital from 2nd onwards

GOD bless you man! Jesus loves you all! Shalom❤

If my take profit was $25 and my losee was $100 doesnt that mean i wouldnt that mean i have a %75 winning chance?

Love your videos, but the music on this one was as loud as you were and was quiet distracting.

Has anybody tested this... can somebody confirm this in real time scenario?

This is a very annoying topic for me cause I trade with great risk, and enter my strategy each time same way and I’m a breakeven trader for the longest , . Nothing random about being a losing trader or breakeven trader for years, obviously winners are doing something that the losers aren’t ! . Nothing random about that. ! Great video by the way bro just a very annoying topic for me

What's your age Matt ??

I'm not sure but I think the probability table is not correct.

This table is wrong

This was a great recap of historical events. So much in the movie BAT 21 covers what Hambleton went through and very little exposure was given to the people who rescued him. I learned a lot today - thanks. 1

Great video! Jesus Christ saves! John 3:16!!!

Very scientific by using some random win losses........not. 🤦‍♂️

My issue with all of this is that, while all of what you are saying is true and usefull in life, how usefull is it in trading? In games of cards, the exact odds of cards showing up are fully known. This means you can calculate exactly what the expected value of certain strategies in poker would be. So in poker you can gain an edge this way and play with positive expected value. But how do you possibly figure out the expected value of a trade? The possible outcomes of your trades are pretty much infinite and unknown. For example, a war may break out and ruin your trade, corona may happen and ruin your trade (or greatly help it), earnings may miss or hit and impact your trade. I could go on infinitely in listing these impacts. So given all of this, how can you POSSIBLY know you are trading with positive expected value? If you can't, all else is pointless (provided your goal is to trade for profit). So how would you mathematically prove you have a profitable trade before making it? I am definitely not saying it is not possible, but have yet to find a trader who can tell me.

Useless