❗UPDATE: Since October 31st is almost here, I wanted to revisit this theory with the Fall Newsletter in mind! I'm in the middle of making a few general channel updates and working on another similarly-styled video (⚠) about an upcoming game, but I still get comments here so I thought I'd add something for those of you who check back :) I do still think Chapters 3-5 will release sometime next year, since there's been no indication that the team wants to change their plans to release all three at once instead of just Chapter 3 (even though I personally would like separate releases more). Funnily enough, the video's title is still kinda accurate--if they were ONLY releasing Chapter 3 this time around, it would probably come out around this time. They're not doing that though, which I knew when making this video lol; the title says only chapter 3 because I thought adding "3-5" would be too confusing To expand on that a little bit, Chapter 3 has had about 9-10 months of focused development time by now, plus some extra time from before the 2022 update when they were focusing on 3 & 4 together I assume (although that time was probably mostly planning and preliminary work). Compared to Chapter 2's 16 months, it makes sense that Chapter 3 should be finished soon. Because of that, I'm excited for the coming Winter newsletter in December since it means we'll probably get news on Chapter 4 then. (not going to say anything for certain though............ I have learned my lesson) A release date in Fall 2024 lines up with the 'Deltarune Chapter(s) Released Every 3 Years' pattern (Oct 2018, Sept 2021, Fall 2024), except I never really liked that line of thinking because, like this video shows, the development process for chapter 1 was wildly different from the process for chapter 2 and both are probably different from the process they're using now. That's why I want to wait for more newsletters/news on Chapter 4 specifically before picking a time! I'm also interested in how far along Chapter 4 & 5 are development-wise, because if they're going to take another 10 months each then the game is coming out in like 2025 and quite frankly that's a lot of newsletters oh also: I can't believe sans lied to us blatantly, it has been 2 years and the game is nowhere to be found. character in a video game couldn't use his powers to predict the volatile and notoriously unpredictable process of real-world video game development??? looks like everyone's favorite skeletom isn't as meta as he may seem =+==+==+==+==+==+= [From Jun 2023] So, as you might have noticed, this video came out before the Summer Newsletter released! Here are my initial thoughts-- SHORT ANSWER: Like the video says, next year! The good news is that we'll probably get info about Chapter 4 (and maybe 5) this September for the Fall Newsletter- Toby has released an update every September for the past 3 years, and in the last one he specifically said that the game wouldn't come out that year (2022). Maybe he'll do something similar this time. LESS SHORT ANSWER: It sounds like Chapter 3 is still the main priority, and its content isn't finished yet (translation didn't mean it was close to content-complete after all, just that the dialogue was complete I suppose). It seems like my assumption that "a chapter's worth of bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks" meant a full chapter's worth of all types of content was off; if they have people working on bullet patterns and puzzles for Chapters 4 & 5 while most of the team is focusing on finishing Chapter 3, development on individual aspects of chapters (like bullet patterns) sounds disconnected from other parts of that chapter, so finishing bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks don't guarantee that anything else is complete. This means that development could have started later than I thought, but that doesn't matter *too* much anymore- let's focus on what we know for sure. The Summer Newsletter was written in May, and Chapter 3 was almost content-complete (for real this time). I'm confident that Chapter 3 alone will be finished by the end of this year, including the final phases Toby talks about- as for Chapters 4 and 5, we still don't know very much unfortunately. So, 2024 it is! Actually... December 2023 might be possible if Chapters 4 and 5 are in a similar state to Chapter 3, since translation doesn't happen at the very end of development like I thought, but that's super super unlikely. More importantly, it seems like from this newsletter that, now that some work has been done on at least Chapters 3 and 4 from when development started to August 2022, the team is focusing in on Chapter 3 until it's complete, then they'll move up through the chapters sequentially. It sounds like we'll get more information on Chapter 4's development around September-October, since even if the game doesn't come out then, it's still Fall Newsletter time + Undertale Anniversary + Deltarune Anniversary too. I still find it weird that absolutely nothing has been mentioned about Chapter 5 specifically- it almost makes me think that's deliberate, since it's speculated to be a big one story-wise and Toby doesn't want to spoil it, but at the same time it might just not have much work finished on it at all. Oh well lol. I never really thought I'd be exactly correct, October 31st was just a significant date that lined up with how I thought development was going. The good news is that a lot of the video is still accurate (the timeline minus my blue marker, when the newsletters will come out, development complications making Chapter 2 take longer than expected) and can still be used to predict when Chapters 3-5 will release. I think it'll still be in the first half of the year at least, but it's late and I don't want to go far enough into it to come up with a specific date. Thank you for watching! This is shaping up to be the biggest video on my channel, which is a bit unfortunate since it's not completely accurate anymore, but I'm still really glad I put it together. I also make music if you didn't know, some of that will be out soon as well.kzfaq.infogaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u26a0.png
@wolfkitty42 Жыл бұрын
I am obsessively checking my email until I see the newsletter AHHHHHHH!!!!
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
@@wolfkitty42 SAME
@mrpro877 Жыл бұрын
Here before it's released, I'm so excited broooooooooo
@talkalexis Жыл бұрын
@@mrpro877 YEAH ME TOO
@mrpro877 Жыл бұрын
seems like toby now want's to release the newsletters closer to the same days, cause new previous one got released in March 31
@gold_hev_suit Жыл бұрын
i still have NO idea how the fanbase will handle 3 new secret bosses at once. the outpouring of community love for Jevil and Spamton was OVERWHELMING…
@viewing845 Жыл бұрын
How are they gonna handle 3 bosses, sets on enemies and such lol
@antonyc.7173 Жыл бұрын
It’s gonna break the Internet
@purple-47 Жыл бұрын
imagine the music.
@viewing845 Жыл бұрын
@@purple-47 3 whole soundtracks
@purple-47 Жыл бұрын
@@viewing845 infinite fan music.
@ki2348 Жыл бұрын
It would be really cool if the chapters release like two weeks apart from each other to give each of them their spotlight.
@Matty8282 Жыл бұрын
I know. I kind of hope that happens just to give people time to play and enjoy each one individually. I find it unlikely, however, but hope it is the case.
@xcenex479 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, that’d be great. And also because I know that spoilers from the ending of Chapter 5 would be all over the Internet on the day of release. I don’t have the time to binge everything in one sitting :(
@ari638 Жыл бұрын
Literally! Even if I did have the time, I hate binging, much preferring to take my time playing a game and explore (might take me a week or two to finish a deltarune chapter, plus a week or so between chapters for a breather). I'll practically end up knowing everything about chapter 5 before I've finished chapter 3
@TwoDumTwoDie Жыл бұрын
That was exactly my hope. Some of the best parts of Deltarune was the community theorizing after a chapter and getting excited for the next one. If we had a short gap in between the three chapters, it would, as you said, give each one more time to shine. Although, if they are all released together, I’m sure there’s some reason Toby decided to do it that way, like they all are a part of one arc or something. Hopefully the annoying dog has a good reason for releasing them all at once.
@cathackzz Жыл бұрын
yeah, i really hope that happens. the fandom needs time to digest all the new stuff and honestly i dont wanna have to go through the chapters really quickly over like 2 days just so i don't get spoiled online 😭😭.
@erikm8373 Жыл бұрын
Deep down, a tiny part of me is clinging to a hefty amount of copium, suggesting that Toby has actually been vastly understating the development progress so he can drop it as a surprise, and is going to end this newsletter casually saying "oh yeah, and chapter 3, 4, and 5 come out next week. Bye!" I know that's almost 100% completely wrong, but still, a man can dream...
@pineappleudh6561 Жыл бұрын
While it's unlikely, that does absolutely sound like something Toby would do.
@ssupermarlo Жыл бұрын
we can only dream...
@drewhazel1121 Жыл бұрын
it may not be this newsletter, but perhaps the next, or the one after, etc. I kinda expect that to be the case
@randomlittleidot Жыл бұрын
@@pineappleudh6561don’t think it’s a thing he would do
@twixchexmix Жыл бұрын
@@pineappleudh6561100% a toby thing to mention in a small footnote “btw chapter 3-5 are out”
@squag721811 ай бұрын
Well this aged like milk left out in the sun after the Fall Newsletter
@user-cd5pe1ru3u10 ай бұрын
sheesh, made my heart drop thinking it got cancelled.
@AGreenSquidKid Жыл бұрын
What a breath of fresh air after seeing people like Yandere Dev run projects like this. I hope Toby pulls through!
@NCSGaming15 Жыл бұрын
“I, evax humbly submit a toast to Nicholas Alexander, for successfully managing to pirate Warcraft 3, so that he may play defense of the ancients, congratulations nick, enjoy your dota.”
@ki2348 Жыл бұрын
oh god yeah. he's still working on it after like 10 years! i honestly dislike the guy but yandere simulator is pretty entertaining to play i'll have to admit
@Ketsui. Жыл бұрын
They're not even comparable lmao
@Neutral-Guy-18 Жыл бұрын
Toby Fox just sent the news letter. And it just showed that deltarune chapter 3 is almost finished, but chapter 4 isn't on progress yet. But they said that chapter 4 is just gonna be a normal/standard chapter. So I'm guessing they are laying on to December. That's all I hav
@SlipsSC Жыл бұрын
That was just one incident. It's a stretch to say that that guy represents all indie game developers when really most are quite competent.
@laytonspuzzle Жыл бұрын
I think it's possible Toby has shifted the plan to just release Chapters 3&4, and save Chapter 5 for a future release. After all, neither newsletter has mentioned Chapter 5. In which case, the September anniversary release seems more reasonable. EDIT: As said in Sturfall's comment, the Spring 2023 newsletter made us think the game was further along than it is and the Summer 2023 Newsletter gave us more perspective. So even if my guess of Chapter 5 being left out is correct, we're probably not seeing a release this anniversary.
@MeloniestNeon Жыл бұрын
I could see that happening, but at the same time we're already expecting it to take longer and are willing to wait, so why speed up the release process in such an arbitrary way? It's clear that Toby has plans for chapters 3-5 to be interconnected, and its going to contain the main bulk of the story and likely have the reveal of the Knight midway through chapter 4-5, with chapter 5 being a good cliffhanger like 1 and 2 were to leave us hanging and chewing on. I feel like releasing chapter 5 with 6, or a bit after 3 and 4 would just give us an unnecessary extra cliffhanger, and waiting for all three at once would likely be better (Plus he's charging the game's full price for these chapters, so he definitely doesn't want to skimp out on the content, unlike what triple-A companies would do.)
@laytonspuzzle Жыл бұрын
@@MeloniestNeon I don't disagree that WE'RE willing to wait, but Toby's said that he wants the game to come out as fast as possible. Not to mention the possibility that the next release would be Chapters 5/6/7, avoiding an extra cliffhanger.
@MeloniestNeon Жыл бұрын
@@laytonspuzzle Again, I don't see the point of postponing Chapter 5 and making the last wait the longest, instead of making it a shorter wait to capitalize off the hype and not leave us waiting two years like this development period. Plus, as I said above, if Toby plans to release the next three chapters at once, he probably has multiple reasons for doing so outside of fan hype and development time. The story is likely at its high point by chapter 5, and the next three chapters are seemingly even more crazy and in the midpoint of the game progression-wise and numerically, so it would only make sense for all three of the middle bridging chapters, encompassing all or most of the second act writing-wise, to be released at once for the most satisfying narrative experience. Its not JUST about the wait and dev time, its about the finished product we receive, and the contents of that product being satisfying and worth the wait.
@ef3353 Жыл бұрын
Doubt it otherwise he would have just released 1 chapter at a time.
@zeo4481 Жыл бұрын
@@MeloniestNeon Why tho? We know Kris is the Knight from Ch2
@braydenbanks4228 Жыл бұрын
I don't want Toby and his team to push themselves too hard, but I do want to see deltarune chapters 3-5 releasing on the game's fifth anniversary if they can do it without straining themselves.
@freshnewcungadero Жыл бұрын
I do. I'm tired of waiting and playing the patience game
@Neo-Metal17 Жыл бұрын
@@freshnewcungaderowell then it’s gonna be rushed and it’s probably gonna suck. SEGA rushed Sonic 06 to release on a specific date instead of polishing it and now Sonic 06 is one of the most infamously bad games of all time.
@TheImmortalMushroom11 ай бұрын
How many anniversaries of the game has there been?
@erikm8373 Жыл бұрын
Wow, this video aged quickly _and_ poorly! according to the newsletter, Toby and his team are currently starting work on the final section of the chapter, the chapter's equivalent to Card/Queen's Castle. Meaning Chapter 3 hasn't moved into final testing yet. That does seem odd, given the previously reported progress, so maybe they've got something up their sleeve. Or maybe they just overestimated how much they had done in the last updates.
@StanleyNumber427 Жыл бұрын
I imagine chapter 3 must be gigantic in terms of content if it took them this long.
@timothylinga1427 Жыл бұрын
Definitely.
@eltiolavara9 Жыл бұрын
the last 10% of game development is what takes the most time by far
@graygravity3856 Жыл бұрын
@@StanleyNumber427 I imagine that working on the other chapters slowed chapter 3's development down.
@StanleyNumber427 Жыл бұрын
@@graygravity3856 But Toby stated some people have only worked on fragments of other chapters.
@xenrx9781 Жыл бұрын
its gonna break the internet when it comes out its insane how 3 chapters are releasing think of the lore and how much lost bits there will be
@samsationeel Жыл бұрын
Unfortunately Toby said that chapter 3 will be more goofy, and won’t add a lot of lore, but high hopes for 4 & 5
@maila319 Жыл бұрын
@@samsationeeltoby also stated that chapter 4 will be more standard so not too much deep lore on chapter 4 either
@maila319 Жыл бұрын
@@user-jl7xj5iz9k it's possible that chapter 4 will have some lore related stuff but chapter 5 is where the story starts climbing upwards and chapters 6 and 7 is where the story reaches its climax
@just_peace Жыл бұрын
@@user-jl7xj5iz9kyeah standard in this sense just seems to mean it's not getting into deltarune's version of true lab yet
@-Teague- Жыл бұрын
@@maila3194 will probably be like 2 and have an insane amount of stuff that's hinted at but we don't understand yet
@pircachupi4771 Жыл бұрын
Making this in-depth and speculative video, pouring a ton of effort into it, and then seeing that Toby released the Summer newsletter only hours later is the most on-brand Toby thing that could possibly happen, and all by complete accident.
@ABDERAMBL Жыл бұрын
I respect your respect for game devs and emphasis on speculation. I have a fair bit of game dev connections, and I’m gonna suggest people be prepared to wait until 2024. Based off current progress I can see them finishing content around Fall of this year, but with 3 chapters of stuff to go through testing, translation, etc, its so possible for *so* many things complicate. Id expect all that to run into early next year. Toby does seem to like his anniversary releases, so I’d not be surprised if its Sep. 15th 2024, but that before 3-5 release they have also begun on future chapters. Probably wait another year and a half or two on completion- assuming theres 7 chapters. I like to have conservative estimates though, their team’s been growing and having previous content as a base really speeds things up. We could be in for a treat this year but if you don’t like being disappointed (like me) just anticipate 2024!
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
Absolutely! Before I started researching for this video I was fully prepared for it to come out in 2024- honestly it was the fact that Chapter 3 has started translation already that made me think it might be sooner, but of course there's nothing saying yet that 2023 is definite.
@TheOnlyPedroGameplays Жыл бұрын
The best homestuck remake
@stannosaurus Жыл бұрын
I feel like it puts less pressure on the devs to speculate for it to take longer rather than shorter.
@Pie10000 Жыл бұрын
To be honest i dont think toby would want to wait specifically for september 2024, if he could already release the stuff in early 2024. Its just such a huge and unneeded wait.
@ABDERAMBL Жыл бұрын
@@Pie10000 well based off them still working on chapter 3 according to the newsletter we probably are waiting til 2025 anyways lol
@ajc1476 Жыл бұрын
Im really hoping Toby does not actually release all 3 chapters at once, and spaces them between like 6 months, that would not only make it so chapter 3, the one with the most progress done so far, realeases earlier, it gives the team more time to focus on the finishing touches to the next chapters and the community can have their fun figuring everything in one chapter at a time instead of 3 all at once
@SkylerDemness Жыл бұрын
I agree with you!
@ssupermarlo Жыл бұрын
that would actually make sense
@Ostr0 Жыл бұрын
Yeah make updates to the full game that would work it would also slow down people so they focus on the individual chapters a bit more hopefully.
@ki2348 Жыл бұрын
i agree! it would also draw up some traction to deltarune for a longer window of time. the way it could work is on steam you purchase the 3rd chapter and in the coming weeks the "free dlc" of 4 and 5 becomes available. it could be really fun and really connect the community like never before!
@Ostr0 Жыл бұрын
@ki2348 Free DLC yeah like Halo MCC
@aeongurewitch53819 ай бұрын
Halloween Newsletter just dropped! And it told us two things: 1. Chapter 3 is complete! And 2. Toby Fox no longer is planning to release all three chapters when they are all complete, but instead make them available for purchase after chapter 4 is done, which is said to already have a lot of progress done. Which means that he’s going to release chapter 3 and 4 when they are ready and then focus on the next chapters afterwards. I don’t know if anyone is planning on trying to predict when 3 & 4 could release, but we might get new chapters to play very soon!
@treekomax Жыл бұрын
The ebbs and flows of this fandom is what keeps me interested the most, glad to see you making some unique and cool content for the sake of this game's hype! Im all here for it, wonderful video!
@JokerDoom Жыл бұрын
I would heavily suspect Christmas 2023 as a possible candidate. Since Halloween is like a holiday for G man and the Holiday family has connections to Christmas and seems to be the other half of that equation. Plus that'd give Toby a few extra months for development on chapters 3-5, or alternatively, he could start chapter 6 and 7 planning early and have time to pepper in more lore Easter eggs.
@tanxplayer-7108 Жыл бұрын
the summer newsletter came out 12 hours after this which is funny
@KL539869 ай бұрын
This videos prediction aged like majority of AAA releases.
@funfox1552 Жыл бұрын
NEWS LETTER COMES OUT SOON LETS HOPE THERES A DATE IN THERE!!!!
@funfox1552 Жыл бұрын
@@Cosmicdev58 I mean chapter 2 didn't just drop randomly it still had a date trailer. Plus toby could just say there's gonna be a release date trailer soon
@gonerdenji Жыл бұрын
I don't think this is going to be the case IMO The chapters of now have been free but NOW it will cost money I think Toby Fox is now going to be more professional this time and give a proper trailer to this amazing game
@gonerdenji Жыл бұрын
@@TransMcNugget Papyrus: WELL THAT WAS ALL FOR THE Q&A , BTW DELTARUNE COMES OUT TOMORROW
@ki2348 Жыл бұрын
ITS COMING OUT NOW!!!!!!!!
@papapdude7595 Жыл бұрын
@@yasd8493wait what really?
@nickfarace933911 ай бұрын
If there is one thing I took away from this video, after the recent announcement Toby made... He said something about not much to report, but also said he would be taking a rest... The same thing he said when Ch2 finished. Actually you know what, screw it. I got more to say. The rational, realistic side of me says the next three chapters come out next anniversary. At the latest, but likely then so it's comfortable. But the hyped up, excited fan in me has a better, and surprisingly reasonable idea of what's going down. See the updates started by lumping any progress together as both ch3 and ch4. Never really sure how much of either. Makes sense, but seems to keep it ambiguous maybe for a reason. Then the next updates pretty much make no mention of chapter 4 in progress at all. They instead imply heavy focus on chapter 3. Even go so far to point out chapter 3 hitting that final phase like this video pointed out. Which is important, but more on that shortly. Then we get the most recent post where Toby points out no progress update, a small thing with fangamer (likely stating this so we know not to expect another spamton sweepstakes level event) and then the sleeping comment I pointed out originally. Something that like I also pointed out, really sounds like a way for Toby to drop a very subtle hint. Maybe as to... Why this year won't have a progress update. Because instead, it's chapter 3. See, at some point Toby decided, likely because chapter 3 kept shaping up to finish before the rest, to just go all in on getting this chapter done. Why? Well, this video pointed out something that made me think of this. Toby definitely made it clear he doesn't want to make us have to wait too long for releases. That's why he just went forward with finishing chapter 2. So instead of making us wait longer for all 3, it would not be a terrible idea to just get it out this anniversary. Starting up phase 3 that early even if content wasn't 100% done would make it really likely chapter 3 could finish before September like the video points out. But it doesn't stop there. Releasing chapter 3 now has even more benefits. Like I said, phase 3 started a while ago. Something I am guessing is that most of the work involved in phase 3 likely doesn't involve much from the same people doing phase 2. Translation for sure, porting mostly would be the person pointed out. Polish I feel could involve majority just play testing. Sure development would have to apply things resters found need cleaned up, but that's partial involvement. This means phase 3 could go full swing while phase 2 is then going on at the same time on the next chapter. With chapter 4 likely having some work done back when last reported, if chapter 3 moved to phase 3 like 6 months ago, plenty of work on chapter 4s content could have been done in that time. Which means, getting chapter 4 ready for next year's anniversary of September is not only reasonable, but comfortable. So comfortable in fact, the same thing can happen where it enters phase 3 fairly early into next year, allowing the same thing to happen with chapter 5 development. Allowing chapter 5 to easily be finished for the anniversary after that. Which if you can't tell, sets up nicely to continue this pattern with the rest of the chapters. Which results in a nice yearly release of chapters. Meaning, we never have to wait too long. Sounds like a really good plan for development to me. I personally would feel more satisfied with a yearly content release of deltarune and moreover having a fairly good chance of knowing when each release happens. Let's be honest, if we do get chapter 3,4, and 5 at once we are gonna consume that just as fast as 1 chapter. Then it's a good 3 years or so for the rest. Which starts 1 year from now? Dang that's long. I mean, this probably isn't gonna happen. It's a non zero chance though I think, and makes more sense than it has any right to. But sure sounds nice.
@Tulip_bip11 ай бұрын
The only thing that drifts me away from this idea is that Toby said he thinks chapter 3 is less story heavy, and that he feels a little self conscious about it
@nickfarace933911 ай бұрын
@@Tulip_bip Absolutely. The one thing that hurts this more than anything is there is a lot of implying these chapters were designed to go together, and might not work out right standalone. I mean we have enough hints that Chapter 3 might just start and end in its dark world. With Hometown day being chapter 4, it would make sense once Chapter 3 night is over you go back to hometown, and that is Chapter 4 in the images so. It would be kind of odd to have a chapter missing both a hometown section and a school closet darkworld section I guess.
@BaloonBoy711 ай бұрын
I've been thinking the same kinda thing as this, although whether it's cos i've gone insane or not idk, though we still got a progress report with chapter 2 so we'd probably get one regardless.
@BaloonBoy711 ай бұрын
@@Tulip_bip True, though reading that through my copium sunglasses makes it seem almost as if he pointed that out, then said 4 would be a more standard chapter, cos he's planning on giving us 3 and is bracing us for the elements he's self conscious about.
@nickfarace933911 ай бұрын
@@BaloonBoy7 yeah this is something I have been thinking too. Also wild idea. Maybe the fangamer small thing is a poll. Where he asks if people want ch3 now or to wait for all three to be done.
@heitorsant17599 ай бұрын
The risk i took was calculated. But boy, am i bad at math.
@KyleGK01 Жыл бұрын
After the recent newsletter that i just got, toby says that chapter 4 is going to be one of a standard chapter, i think that means there are going to be less lore stuff then the previous 2 chapters, and be more like chapter 1. Since its going to be a "standard" chapter, i think it will take less time to make then chapter 3 and 2.
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
That could be- I've seen people say that they think Chapter 4 will be a smaller chapter, since the screenshots we got of it are all in the Light World, and it's sandwiched between (and being released/developed alongside) Chapters 3 and 5, which both seem to be large and/or very story significant.
@GodChaos333 Жыл бұрын
Great work. This was presented in a very interesting way. And like you say. Just something fun while we wait. Hope you do more.
@digestivecookie70265 ай бұрын
very enjoyable video! I really like the way you narrate stuff and the style of your videos. Might be weird to get a comment like this well after both the knowledge 3 & 4 would be separated from 5 and the predicted release date has passed, but I mean to say that your content is just That engaging. Fun watch regardless. Like you said later into the video, the anticipation and theorizing and speculating will all be over at some point, so enjoying it now is the way to go Again, very good video
@Sturfall5 ай бұрын
thank you!!
@fazstudios11 ай бұрын
As of the anniversary newsletter, I feel like it’s closer to maybe mid-late 2024
@lloxu11 ай бұрын
That's actually a nice sentiment you had at the end. I have been eagerly waiting for the full release of deltarune for years now. In that time I have seen so many videos and threads discussing theories for the story, coming up with theories of my own, looking at all of the fanart, animations, and fan games that have come from only 2 chapters of the game. In some sense it's nice that we know so little, it's exciting to wait for more chapters. Eventually not only will every deltarune chapter release, but Toby Fox will likely stop making games at some point.
@ElectricShark446 Жыл бұрын
I got Deltarune the first day it was on switch, only because back then I got on the eshop everyday to see if there were new free games. I didn't even know what it was, and then I played Undertale, and learned Deltarune was by the same person. Fast forward to now, it is my favorite franchise of all time.
@smolglitch Жыл бұрын
man, you reminding me that deltarune will eventually end kinda hurts. ive been with this franchise since 2015 and its occupied a massive part of my mind for all those years. what are us crazy fans gonna do when deltarune is over and the community slows down
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
Same... although Deltarune isn't going anywhere, even after it's finished. I still replay through Undertale every once in a while, and that game is almost half as old as I am now lmao
@JokerDoom Жыл бұрын
Nah, at this pace we'll all be dead before he finishes Chapter 7
@kokorodachiofficialchannel5062 Жыл бұрын
Undertale Hard Mode Full Version obvs
@icouldntcomeupwithaname Жыл бұрын
Summer newsletter's out...and they're still not even done with Chapter 3. Rip 2023 release, and maybe even 2024 release.
@BaloonBoy7 Жыл бұрын
2024 seems free tbh if all goes smoothly and 2023 isn't an option
@Frenzy.6411 ай бұрын
and suddenly you notice 2024 is only 4 months away
@piethegoon5189 Жыл бұрын
One thing I’m curious about is how Toby’s other projects fit into this timeline. As far as I’m aware, since the beginning of Deltarune, he helped produce a song for Hololive talent Houshou Marine under the alias U.N. Izu and voice acted in an episode of Cartoon Network’s We Baby Bears. I am unaware of anything else he’s done but I doubt that’s the last of it
@kellenoconnor4396 Жыл бұрын
I know he did quite a few songs for the newest Pokémon games
@childeofepickness Жыл бұрын
@@kellenoconnor4396wait really? can you link them???
@kellenoconnor4396 Жыл бұрын
@@childeofepickness idk which ones he did for S/V, haven’t actually played them, but I know he did the battle tower theme for Sw/Sh
@childeofepickness Жыл бұрын
@@kellenoconnor4396 ah ok! thanks anyway!
@coiledAgent Жыл бұрын
@@childeofepickness Toby Fox made the Tera Raid theme which then, in true Toby Fox fashion, had its main leitmotif put into the Final Boss theme. He also helped make a few of the various overworld themes, one of which ended up getting remixed for the trailer for the Pokemon Anime that I can't remember the name of (the one that takes place in Paldea with the new girl as main character) In short, he had much more of a hand in S/V's music than the single Battle Tower song from Sw/Sh, though he was still far from the main musician.
@destructiveoverlord2663 Жыл бұрын
This was an incredible video! Hope to see more like this from you in the future!
@WaylonH.9 ай бұрын
This aged like milk, and I like cheese. Can’t believe, but am very happy with the recent news.
@BiomechanicalBrick Жыл бұрын
Judging by the wording in the 2023 summer newsletter, the progress is more closer to something like this imo: Chapter 3 (much smaller chapter in terms of story content): 65% Chapter 4 (normal sized chapter in terms of story content): 5% Chapter 5 (not specified how big it will be): 5% I think Fall 2026 would be a more likely release window
@Radongent Жыл бұрын
fall 2026?!?!? even fall 2025 is a stretch. i'd say if toby doesn't release chapter 3 individually it's probably going to be late 2024 early 2025
@@joaovictor-nr6mi the team is only now starting to work on chapter 3's "main area" (equivalent to card castle and queen's mansion), the chapter can't be 80% done Though i might agree with the 20% number for chapter 4? After all we did see a few chapter 4 light world areas in the 2022 dev update The point is we gotta manage our expectations... deltarune isn't gonna be finished in quite a few years
@timgorg1919 Жыл бұрын
I don't want Toby to hurry, he shall take his time, but I would like to see Chapter 7 being finished before he dies.
@vrtexxradiation11 ай бұрын
hes only 31 (32 in about 18 days) so there's nothing to be worried about. Hell, Deltarune Chapters 3-7 may be completed within the end of this 2020-2029/2030 decade.
@timgorg191911 ай бұрын
@@vrtexxradiation I think he will be in his late 40s when Chapter 7 releases. Hopefully he won't land in some accident or get seriously ill.
@vrtexxradiation11 ай бұрын
@@timgorg1919Late 40's is crazy, let's assume mid 40s....
@jonRoyale Жыл бұрын
The summer issue of the newsletter is out! They are currently working on the final over world area so.. I don't think that September is possible unfortunately
@goofygoose Жыл бұрын
Personally, I like to think chapters 3, 4, & 5 have all been worked on at the same time and not one. Like, in a similar way to the back to the future movies. I think a lot of stuff will become interconnected and event planning will depend on things happening in previous chapters. This would probably put development ahead of the theorized schedule, maybe, sorta, ksdjkfnsldfj.
@bro748 Жыл бұрын
Nah, Toby's literally said they're focusing on chapter. 3. As he said in the newsletter that released a couple hours ago, _"As was the case last time, we're focusing on Chapter 3. However, there are a few people working on pieces of later chapters, such as bullet patterns or puzzles."_
@goofygoose Жыл бұрын
@@bro748 OMG THE NEWSLETTER RELEASED?!
@watcher4018 Жыл бұрын
Most Sane Deltarune Fan:
@MeloniestNeon Жыл бұрын
This is an incredible video! Such high quality content deserves far more views. On a more relevant note, I'm hyped for the Newsletter! Will report back after it comes out lol. I expect that chapters 3-5 will contain the main bulk of the Knight's story, with 6 being a wrap-up and 7 being a true lab/Photoshop Flowey/Asriel styled Toby Fox Classic (tm) Finale, and I'm super hyped to finally meet the Knight, who is definitely secretly Sans in an Ice-E costume!
@StanleyNumber427 Жыл бұрын
Wait, aren't there more chapters? I certainly remember there are chapters 8-10 within the games code. Or is that a debunked myth?
@ssupermarlo Жыл бұрын
@@StanleyNumber427 those were probably just placeholders (at least my guess) there was also a "chapter 0" in there so i don't think they're gonna be a thing
@StanleyNumber427 Жыл бұрын
@@ssupermarlo My interpretation of chapter 0's existence is that it's a RESET or a loop. But it could be wrong.
@user-eo6lk1cg7x Жыл бұрын
great video, but I think that when Toby says that chapter 2 is the biggest I think he's saying that it's going to be the base work for the other chapters with a more complicated system than chapter 1 not the biggest lenght wise, honestly I don't think it would be possible to make a chapter less than an hour and 30 minutes if thay all follow the same structure, chapter 4 and 5 are also when the game will start to cost money, I don't think Toby would put a price on something that is shorter than chapter 2
@erikm8373 Жыл бұрын
That was something like my interpretation. Chapter 1, despite being very fleshed out, was still just a demo. A test of the systems and basic gameplay. Then chapter 2 comes with the framework for more complex elements, that can be applied to future development. That chapter gave us the ability to go back and forth between the Dark/Light world (only at the end, but still), alternate Soul modes in combat, alternate route based on player actions, more fleshed out combat systems, minigames like punch out, the systems for a central hub town that will grow with your progress in the game. This is the kind of stuff I imagine adds up to a solid amount of development time, but now that those systems are in place, it becomes much easier to use and expand upon them in the development of future chapters.
@stannosaurus Жыл бұрын
Well the only reason chapter 2 was free was because of covid! Perhaps it will be shorter, but perhaps that's why hes set on releasing multiple chapters at once!
@user-eo6lk1cg7x Жыл бұрын
@@stannosaurus Chapter 2 was free because it isn't even half of the game, and a 1 hour chapter would be very hard to do anyway, as well as feeling less fleshed out than the rest
@slimgrim3607 Жыл бұрын
imagine if toby watched this video and slowed down production of chapter 3/4/5 just to mess with you. would kinda be funny as hell.
@eragons1894 Жыл бұрын
You know... i would've loved it if Toby decided he wanted to release chapters 3-5 separately despite what he stated earlier. If Toby did in fact put all attention to finishing chapter 3, i think we could possibly get it done untill the end of this year. Also let's be honest, if would be a win/win for everyone! Chapter 2 provided us with so much content, that people are talking about it and making theories to this day, almost 2 years after it released. If Chapter 3 was released alone, it would definitely be enough to satisfy people for at least a year, even considering it's gonna be around lenght of Chapter 1 (possibly smaller). In fact, in my opinion releasing all 3 chapters at once is much worse idea after all. Why? Because opposed to Chapters 1 and 2, the next 3 wouldn't feel as special separately. I love the idea of people analysing every single bit of separate chapter and predicting what comes next. Also, releasing all 3 chapters at once would just shorten the hype for waiting for the game to be completed. Heck, i'd even propose a compromise. I'd pay for chapters 3-5 together, if it meant we'd possibly get chapter 3 this year and let's say... next 2, a year apart from each other.
@Valetravelgames Жыл бұрын
1:05 wow that was a very high quality sound effect!
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
glad you like it! I layered a dubstep impact sample with the battle opening sound to make it
@RottenRoseMotifs Жыл бұрын
I want Toby to see this and release the chapter just a day later than your prediction. Nothing more, nothing less. I haven’t even seen the video yet but I really really want it to happen. I will watch though I’m just gonna sleep first
@bro748 Жыл бұрын
Instead he released the newsletter confirming the prediction is too optimistic.
@_epiphany5621. Жыл бұрын
I'm used to seeing you make music videos so it was quite a surprise to see a video like this. Hopefully this get's popular, the effort is insane.
@2024...................9 ай бұрын
Well, you were partially correct. Chapter 3 was finished from around 1 month ago Although, chapter 3 and 4 are now going to release together now
@djcupcake86627 ай бұрын
Wow, I can’t wait for the 31st……..
@Mixoww6 ай бұрын
Nothing happened
@h20iscool6 ай бұрын
@@Mixowwit’s a joke
@SpamtonSlapper1997 Жыл бұрын
Something I would LOVE, is if Chapter 3 came out for UT's next anniversary, and then Chapter 5 comes out on Halloween for Deltarune's anniversary. (chapter 4 in the middle between them) That would let us go through each chapter with a fine comb, like we have for 1 and 2, without there being huge gaps of suffering & waiting between them. I don't care if I have to wait for 2024 for that either, I just don't want to have to go social media dark for what is probably equivalent to about chapters 1&2 combined lol. Also, I'm putting genuine stock into this timeline because it's the only reason I can think of for Toby having to potentially cut the Cowboy Segment, as with how complete chapter 3 was I thought we'd be on pace for chapter 5 by next year easily. Unless of course, he was shooting for an anniversary this year. Or at least a chapter release? He might of decided to go with a single chapter release outright (the Newsletter MINIMAL tier says "Chapter" singular after all)
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
actually I'd love if they staggered the chapters' releases a little bit lol, if they all come out at once like Toby seems to have wanted them to I won't know which songs to cover first
@SpamtonSlapper1997 Жыл бұрын
@@Sturfall definitely still in chapter order, unless we get a legitimate Gaster fight by Chapter 5. I think chapter 5 is gonna be the fever dream ending, and 7 is gonna be the like, GASTER ULTRA BUILD UP ENDING that everyone wants tbh.
@Pulivari124 Жыл бұрын
13:30 You failed. You had to say determination!
@mrronron7328 Жыл бұрын
I just realized Deltarune is already almost 5 years old... what ? Like, how ??
@dmclsl03 Жыл бұрын
It's okay, i'm literally desperate for the release of these chapters, it's ok.
@SemiHypercube Жыл бұрын
We will see if you're right soon enough (late 2023 does seem a bit hopeful though, I'm estimating some time in 2024 is more likely) Edit: apparently Chapter 3 is still not done but it's close, that probably changes up the prediction
@pkchiptune Жыл бұрын
cool video! it's nice to have a deep dive into it like this. i was looking at the updates and stuff, and i sorta have the feeling that it'd come in december because...i guess a dess tie-in. halloween seems like it'd be a _little_ tough to make work, because they didn't mention chapter 4 in the previous newsletter, but i think they could still pull it off
@astroearthbound Жыл бұрын
Great video, finally a release theory built on facts instead of conspiracy
@phantomglitch6922 Жыл бұрын
Ok Im Calling It, December 25th 2023, At The Latest.
@BatSpiderKitty Жыл бұрын
As a Pikmin fan I am used to waiting but still very hyped
@Snt1_ Жыл бұрын
Zelda and metroid fans would agree
@squid_cake Жыл бұрын
I'm so sorry you suffered this long
@DogsRNice Жыл бұрын
Half life fan here Help
@Jessica_Schweser Жыл бұрын
At least your waiting is nearly over
@childeofepickness Жыл бұрын
as a proseka (ensekai) player I have to wait a lot but it never gets any easier… 😔
@notoriousectotherm11 ай бұрын
September 15 is my birthday, so you calling it a special date makes me happy. Thank you
@ShikiTochi Жыл бұрын
Sturfall!? I wasn't expecting to have KZfaq autoplay to a video like this, amazing work once again man!
@BaloonBoy7 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for one more dose of hopium before the newsletter. Tbh tho Sans's 'maybe another two years' has been the only thing that got me past the 21 months
@t.7899 Жыл бұрын
this video is awesome! it's a complete summary of every hint we have and Logic thinking, you're amazing thank you, currently seeing the video and I'm having a blast!
@evyaB50 Жыл бұрын
I had a dream and it realesed on september 12 for some reason..
@ocelotmadness6287 Жыл бұрын
If this was a prothetic dream I'm gonna be really happy
@evyaB50 Жыл бұрын
its very unlikely from what it looks like from the summer news letter @@ocelotmadness6287
@pngchicken11 ай бұрын
@HeinrichHimmler-ct5xk guys anyway just had a dream it released on september 16th and it was playable in browser
@redheaddjg Жыл бұрын
Hey, this was pretty well put together, a fully comprehensive analysis of Deltarune's development and prediction of 3-5's release. I liked how you emphasized that your predictions for the release were speculative and how you even stopped yourself from going too far in that one part of the video (forgot the timestamp). Yet another Deltarune theorist that knows how to stay grounded. Also, I appreciate the shoutout to my video in the description. 👀 You've earned yourself a sub just for that, and well, for making a fantastic Deltarune theory.
@SamoUwU Жыл бұрын
I really appreciate your work on this video! And I'm so hyped for the upcoming chapters.
@anniegoob80496 ай бұрын
whelp now we know that they're working on phase three of chapter three specifically, which if this video is correct, it should be here anywhere from four months to the end of the year. gonna guesstimate six months cause it makes me feel good
@UnderFan20146 ай бұрын
LET’S CRAPPIN’ GOOOOO
@leaf1673 Жыл бұрын
Imagine if toby makes it a day later just to fuck with us
@NestyEco Жыл бұрын
Look, I'm not gonna lie. I instantly skipped to the date you calculated, but as a sign of respect I'm going to play the whole video in mute while I study a little
@necrodeus6811 Жыл бұрын
Honorable behavior
@delaneyelekes866011 ай бұрын
I'm worried about the pace of development. Can't shake the feeling we'll wait until like, September next year to see all 3 chapters get finished. In which, the pace of development would only seem marginally faster than it was before, despite Toby hiring more people to help out and these chapters supposedly being smaller. Would be SO happy if this wasn't the case though.
@vladpix530111 ай бұрын
Chapter 3 will not come out until he finished 4 and 5
@Anna_0050910 ай бұрын
Toby sometimes change his mind.so.chapter 4and5 not compleate,also chapter 5 os barwly start,so...if he give us chapter3 now(not for free,he need mpney after all),i think this be the win win for all
@davidjohnson6087 Жыл бұрын
yo, this kicks ass! you're so measured and thoughtful, love to see this in the community!
@CyonixOfficial Жыл бұрын
It's looking like a 2024 release since the newsletter told us that chapter 3 wasnt finished yet. I hope it releases before April at the latest but who knows
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
I think the first half of 2024 is definitely still likely! Otherwise Sans would have been wrong about it taking 2 years and that obviously can't happen under any circumstances In all seriousness, though, we'll get another update in September with the Fall Newsletter, plus Toby has released a bigger update every September for the past 3 years. He said in the last one that the game wasn't ready to release before the end of the year- maybe he'll say something similar this time
@the_godbodor7026 Жыл бұрын
I kinda hope it does come out as this timeline predicted just for the fact alone it would mean Sans predicted the timeline, which would be absolutely hilarious
@Megalobert Жыл бұрын
I already made this release theory for myself before and i just gotta say... I F#CKING KNEW IT
@legostudios120 Жыл бұрын
Man is the cabin fever for the community reeeeeaaally setting in huh.
@jamesfrancisco8075 Жыл бұрын
I swear to god if sans predicted the release date of the next new chapters I’m going to flip lol
@cloudyglass9486 Жыл бұрын
just a thought, but it's interesting to think that they could be deliberately leaving out info for chapter 5 so that they could do another surprise release like chapter 2
@IceAlias Жыл бұрын
Its kinda a crazy but do you guys think toby will be down after this. I mean this was his big project after undertale. What could possibly be next for him
@adoggo588411 ай бұрын
Holy shit it’s been almost 3 years since chapter 2
@sergejkonstantinovic486610 ай бұрын
No, exactly 2 years
@Valetravelgames Жыл бұрын
Your editing is phenomenal!
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
thanks!! it took a lot longer than I thought it would lol
@evengaylion.9527 Жыл бұрын
@@SturfallThat's what Toby fox will say after people start praising chapters 3-5.
@zymen33 Жыл бұрын
Okay, upon reading the newsletter it became obvious that it won't come out this year. And while it's very very sad and unfortunate for normal fans, fangame devs have another year to make a fanmade version. We've not just won time, but won an entire f*cking year to work!!! YEEEAH BABY!!
@GhostVolume Жыл бұрын
December Holiday *mic dropped*
@themanofmilk Жыл бұрын
13:39 Toby Sox.
@Ogamer320 Жыл бұрын
Good luck calculating karlson's release date
@balookingdomyt Жыл бұрын
This is something I always wanted to do, but never wanted to put in the effort to do! Thanks!
@Gturtle10x Жыл бұрын
December Holiday… hmm…. Maybe it releases Christmas
@wscamel226 Жыл бұрын
you know what would be cool here? A timeline (or atleast I think so not sure about others
@SuspiciousTemmie Жыл бұрын
It's awesome to see this video getting so much attention, it's _extremely_ well put-together and completely deserves all this support!! You have a great voice, all the theorizing make complete sense and were very well-researched, and you explained everything really clearly. And your editing is amazing too! The *massive* amount of time and effort you put into this video really shows, every single part of it is very high-quality and done _incredibly_ well!! You did an absolutely phenomenal job on all of it, this is honestly one of the best UT/DR theory videos I've ever watched.
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
Thank you!! I appreciate the compliment about my voice, that's a new one lol
@SuspiciousTemmie Жыл бұрын
@@Sturfall No problem!! ^^
@fingers422 Жыл бұрын
i doubt it will come out this year but i will be pleasantly surprised. My guess is sometime around halfway through 2024
@the-lazy-skeleton Жыл бұрын
Another thing to consider that would be nice is that if toby adds chapters 3-4 , releases 5 at a later date, so that we have a nice slow pace feel for the game. Because when the game ends, some of the mysteries of the game will fade. Maybe even the vibe of waiting will just fade. Enjoy these times.
@d.g.t.l6292 Жыл бұрын
There's still 6-7 after 5 👍
@squirreltastrophe Жыл бұрын
super excited for the newsletter!!! :DDD
@DEADEND176 Жыл бұрын
Toby fox has the oportunity to do the funniest thing imaginable
@luizzeroxis Жыл бұрын
Nice video! The editing is really nice and also funny sometimes. It's crazy the level of quality small KZfaqrs have these days!
@beheeyemite Жыл бұрын
maybe 2 years is a reasonable enough timeframe, but i cant get "3 years" out of my head for tobys game release dates..
@JackO_kidplosion Жыл бұрын
Most sane deltarune fan
@notlucas6859 Жыл бұрын
i was gonna skip to the release date, but it said dont skip here please so i had mercy
@Sturfall Жыл бұрын
thank you
@Golden_Official1008 ай бұрын
Can't wait for- Oh wait.
@thighsupplier Жыл бұрын
Just found ur channel and you have an amazing vibe dude, great video!
@adamhowe2423 Жыл бұрын
Solid analysis, I was thinking along the same lines myself after reading the updates.
@krystelbeaulieu-thibault3621 Жыл бұрын
aaaaaand the newsletter just arrived, might have wanted to wait for it until finishing this video since chapter 3 is like 99 percent done
@marschocobars Жыл бұрын
oh wow! you were right ab the newsletter
@Deertective_ Жыл бұрын
What if it releases sometime in December to tie into Dess, or just the Holidays in general. If not then I’m predicting chapter 6 and 7 will be released in December of whatever year that will be.