❗UPDATE: Since October 31st is almost here, I wanted to revisit this theory with the Fall Newsletter in mind! I'm in the middle of making a few general channel updates and working on another similarly-styled video (⚠) about an upcoming game, but I still get comments here so I thought I'd add something for those of you who check back :) I do still think Chapters 3-5 will release sometime next year, since there's been no indication that the team wants to change their plans to release all three at once instead of just Chapter 3 (even though I personally would like separate releases more). Funnily enough, the video's title is still kinda accurate--if they were ONLY releasing Chapter 3 this time around, it would probably come out around this time. They're not doing that though, which I knew when making this video lol; the title says only chapter 3 because I thought adding "3-5" would be too confusing To expand on that a little bit, Chapter 3 has had about 9-10 months of focused development time by now, plus some extra time from before the 2022 update when they were focusing on 3 & 4 together I assume (although that time was probably mostly planning and preliminary work). Compared to Chapter 2's 16 months, it makes sense that Chapter 3 should be finished soon. Because of that, I'm excited for the coming Winter newsletter in December since it means we'll probably get news on Chapter 4 then. (not going to say anything for certain though............ I have learned my lesson) A release date in Fall 2024 lines up with the 'Deltarune Chapter(s) Released Every 3 Years' pattern (Oct 2018, Sept 2021, Fall 2024), except I never really liked that line of thinking because, like this video shows, the development process for chapter 1 was wildly different from the process for chapter 2 and both are probably different from the process they're using now. That's why I want to wait for more newsletters/news on Chapter 4 specifically before picking a time! I'm also interested in how far along Chapter 4 & 5 are development-wise, because if they're going to take another 10 months each then the game is coming out in like 2025 and quite frankly that's a lot of newsletters oh also: I can't believe sans lied to us blatantly, it has been 2 years and the game is nowhere to be found. character in a video game couldn't use his powers to predict the volatile and notoriously unpredictable process of real-world video game development??? looks like everyone's favorite skeletom isn't as meta as he may seem =+==+==+==+==+==+= [From Jun 2023] So, as you might have noticed, this video came out before the Summer Newsletter released! Here are my initial thoughts-- SHORT ANSWER: Like the video says, next year! The good news is that we'll probably get info about Chapter 4 (and maybe 5) this September for the Fall Newsletter- Toby has released an update every September for the past 3 years, and in the last one he specifically said that the game wouldn't come out that year (2022). Maybe he'll do something similar this time. LESS SHORT ANSWER: It sounds like Chapter 3 is still the main priority, and its content isn't finished yet (translation didn't mean it was close to content-complete after all, just that the dialogue was complete I suppose). It seems like my assumption that "a chapter's worth of bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks" meant a full chapter's worth of all types of content was off; if they have people working on bullet patterns and puzzles for Chapters 4 & 5 while most of the team is focusing on finishing Chapter 3, development on individual aspects of chapters (like bullet patterns) sounds disconnected from other parts of that chapter, so finishing bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks don't guarantee that anything else is complete. This means that development could have started later than I thought, but that doesn't matter *too* much anymore- let's focus on what we know for sure. The Summer Newsletter was written in May, and Chapter 3 was almost content-complete (for real this time). I'm confident that Chapter 3 alone will be finished by the end of this year, including the final phases Toby talks about- as for Chapters 4 and 5, we still don't know very much unfortunately. So, 2024 it is! Actually... December 2023 might be possible if Chapters 4 and 5 are in a similar state to Chapter 3, since translation doesn't happen at the very end of development like I thought, but that's super super unlikely. More importantly, it seems like from this newsletter that, now that some work has been done on at least Chapters 3 and 4 from when development started to August 2022, the team is focusing in on Chapter 3 until it's complete, then they'll move up through the chapters sequentially. It sounds like we'll get more information on Chapter 4's development around September-October, since even if the game doesn't come out then, it's still Fall Newsletter time + Undertale Anniversary + Deltarune Anniversary too. I still find it weird that absolutely nothing has been mentioned about Chapter 5 specifically- it almost makes me think that's deliberate, since it's speculated to be a big one story-wise and Toby doesn't want to spoil it, but at the same time it might just not have much work finished on it at all. Oh well lol. I never really thought I'd be exactly correct, October 31st was just a significant date that lined up with how I thought development was going. The good news is that a lot of the video is still accurate (the timeline minus my blue marker, when the newsletters will come out, development complications making Chapter 2 take longer than expected) and can still be used to predict when Chapters 3-5 will release. I think it'll still be in the first half of the year at least, but it's late and I don't want to go far enough into it to come up with a specific date. Thank you for watching! This is shaping up to be the biggest video on my channel, which is a bit unfortunate since it's not completely accurate anymore, but I'm still really glad I put it together. I also make music if you didn't know, some of that will be out soon as well.kzfaq.infogaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u26a0.png

i still have NO idea how the fanbase will handle 3 new secret bosses at once. the outpouring of community love for Jevil and Spamton was OVERWHELMING…

It would be really cool if the chapters release like two weeks apart from each other to give each of them their spotlight.

Deep down, a tiny part of me is clinging to a hefty amount of copium, suggesting that Toby has actually been vastly understating the development progress so he can drop it as a surprise, and is going to end this newsletter casually saying "oh yeah, and chapter 3, 4, and 5 come out next week. Bye!" I know that's almost 100% completely wrong, but still, a man can dream...

Well this aged like milk left out in the sun after the Fall Newsletter

What a breath of fresh air after seeing people like Yandere Dev run projects like this. I hope Toby pulls through!

I think it's possible Toby has shifted the plan to just release Chapters 3&4, and save Chapter 5 for a future release. After all, neither newsletter has mentioned Chapter 5. In which case, the September anniversary release seems more reasonable. EDIT: As said in Sturfall's comment, the Spring 2023 newsletter made us think the game was further along than it is and the Summer 2023 Newsletter gave us more perspective. So even if my guess of Chapter 5 being left out is correct, we're probably not seeing a release this anniversary.

I don't want Toby and his team to push themselves too hard, but I do want to see deltarune chapters 3-5 releasing on the game's fifth anniversary if they can do it without straining themselves.

Wow, this video aged quickly _and_ poorly! according to the newsletter, Toby and his team are currently starting work on the final section of the chapter, the chapter's equivalent to Card/Queen's Castle. Meaning Chapter 3 hasn't moved into final testing yet. That does seem odd, given the previously reported progress, so maybe they've got something up their sleeve. Or maybe they just overestimated how much they had done in the last updates.

its gonna break the internet when it comes out its insane how 3 chapters are releasing think of the lore and how much lost bits there will be

Making this in-depth and speculative video, pouring a ton of effort into it, and then seeing that Toby released the Summer newsletter only hours later is the most on-brand Toby thing that could possibly happen, and all by complete accident.

I respect your respect for game devs and emphasis on speculation. I have a fair bit of game dev connections, and I’m gonna suggest people be prepared to wait until 2024. Based off current progress I can see them finishing content around Fall of this year, but with 3 chapters of stuff to go through testing, translation, etc, its so possible for *so* many things complicate. Id expect all that to run into early next year. Toby does seem to like his anniversary releases, so I’d not be surprised if its Sep. 15th 2024, but that before 3-5 release they have also begun on future chapters. Probably wait another year and a half or two on completion- assuming theres 7 chapters. I like to have conservative estimates though, their team’s been growing and having previous content as a base really speeds things up. We could be in for a treat this year but if you don’t like being disappointed (like me) just anticipate 2024!

Im really hoping Toby does not actually release all 3 chapters at once, and spaces them between like 6 months, that would not only make it so chapter 3, the one with the most progress done so far, realeases earlier, it gives the team more time to focus on the finishing touches to the next chapters and the community can have their fun figuring everything in one chapter at a time instead of 3 all at once

Halloween Newsletter just dropped! And it told us two things: 1. Chapter 3 is complete! And 2. Toby Fox no longer is planning to release all three chapters when they are all complete, but instead make them available for purchase after chapter 4 is done, which is said to already have a lot of progress done. Which means that he’s going to release chapter 3 and 4 when they are ready and then focus on the next chapters afterwards. I don’t know if anyone is planning on trying to predict when 3 & 4 could release, but we might get new chapters to play very soon!

The ebbs and flows of this fandom is what keeps me interested the most, glad to see you making some unique and cool content for the sake of this game's hype! Im all here for it, wonderful video!

I would heavily suspect Christmas 2023 as a possible candidate. Since Halloween is like a holiday for G man and the Holiday family has connections to Christmas and seems to be the other half of that equation. Plus that'd give Toby a few extra months for development on chapters 3-5, or alternatively, he could start chapter 6 and 7 planning early and have time to pepper in more lore Easter eggs.

the summer newsletter came out 12 hours after this which is funny

This videos prediction aged like majority of AAA releases.

NEWS LETTER COMES OUT SOON LETS HOPE THERES A DATE IN THERE!!!!

If there is one thing I took away from this video, after the recent announcement Toby made... He said something about not much to report, but also said he would be taking a rest... The same thing he said when Ch2 finished. Actually you know what, screw it. I got more to say. The rational, realistic side of me says the next three chapters come out next anniversary. At the latest, but likely then so it's comfortable. But the hyped up, excited fan in me has a better, and surprisingly reasonable idea of what's going down. See the updates started by lumping any progress together as both ch3 and ch4. Never really sure how much of either. Makes sense, but seems to keep it ambiguous maybe for a reason. Then the next updates pretty much make no mention of chapter 4 in progress at all. They instead imply heavy focus on chapter 3. Even go so far to point out chapter 3 hitting that final phase like this video pointed out. Which is important, but more on that shortly. Then we get the most recent post where Toby points out no progress update, a small thing with fangamer (likely stating this so we know not to expect another spamton sweepstakes level event) and then the sleeping comment I pointed out originally. Something that like I also pointed out, really sounds like a way for Toby to drop a very subtle hint. Maybe as to... Why this year won't have a progress update. Because instead, it's chapter 3. See, at some point Toby decided, likely because chapter 3 kept shaping up to finish before the rest, to just go all in on getting this chapter done. Why? Well, this video pointed out something that made me think of this. Toby definitely made it clear he doesn't want to make us have to wait too long for releases. That's why he just went forward with finishing chapter 2. So instead of making us wait longer for all 3, it would not be a terrible idea to just get it out this anniversary. Starting up phase 3 that early even if content wasn't 100% done would make it really likely chapter 3 could finish before September like the video points out. But it doesn't stop there. Releasing chapter 3 now has even more benefits. Like I said, phase 3 started a while ago. Something I am guessing is that most of the work involved in phase 3 likely doesn't involve much from the same people doing phase 2. Translation for sure, porting mostly would be the person pointed out. Polish I feel could involve majority just play testing. Sure development would have to apply things resters found need cleaned up, but that's partial involvement. This means phase 3 could go full swing while phase 2 is then going on at the same time on the next chapter. With chapter 4 likely having some work done back when last reported, if chapter 3 moved to phase 3 like 6 months ago, plenty of work on chapter 4s content could have been done in that time. Which means, getting chapter 4 ready for next year's anniversary of September is not only reasonable, but comfortable. So comfortable in fact, the same thing can happen where it enters phase 3 fairly early into next year, allowing the same thing to happen with chapter 5 development. Allowing chapter 5 to easily be finished for the anniversary after that. Which if you can't tell, sets up nicely to continue this pattern with the rest of the chapters. Which results in a nice yearly release of chapters. Meaning, we never have to wait too long. Sounds like a really good plan for development to me. I personally would feel more satisfied with a yearly content release of deltarune and moreover having a fairly good chance of knowing when each release happens. Let's be honest, if we do get chapter 3,4, and 5 at once we are gonna consume that just as fast as 1 chapter. Then it's a good 3 years or so for the rest. Which starts 1 year from now? Dang that's long. I mean, this probably isn't gonna happen. It's a non zero chance though I think, and makes more sense than it has any right to. But sure sounds nice.

The risk i took was calculated. But boy, am i bad at math.

After the recent newsletter that i just got, toby says that chapter 4 is going to be one of a standard chapter, i think that means there are going to be less lore stuff then the previous 2 chapters, and be more like chapter 1. Since its going to be a "standard" chapter, i think it will take less time to make then chapter 3 and 2.

Great work. This was presented in a very interesting way. And like you say. Just something fun while we wait. Hope you do more.

very enjoyable video! I really like the way you narrate stuff and the style of your videos. Might be weird to get a comment like this well after both the knowledge 3 & 4 would be separated from 5 and the predicted release date has passed, but I mean to say that your content is just That engaging. Fun watch regardless. Like you said later into the video, the anticipation and theorizing and speculating will all be over at some point, so enjoying it now is the way to go Again, very good video

As of the anniversary newsletter, I feel like it’s closer to maybe mid-late 2024

That's actually a nice sentiment you had at the end. I have been eagerly waiting for the full release of deltarune for years now. In that time I have seen so many videos and threads discussing theories for the story, coming up with theories of my own, looking at all of the fanart, animations, and fan games that have come from only 2 chapters of the game. In some sense it's nice that we know so little, it's exciting to wait for more chapters. Eventually not only will every deltarune chapter release, but Toby Fox will likely stop making games at some point.

I got Deltarune the first day it was on switch, only because back then I got on the eshop everyday to see if there were new free games. I didn't even know what it was, and then I played Undertale, and learned Deltarune was by the same person. Fast forward to now, it is my favorite franchise of all time.

man, you reminding me that deltarune will eventually end kinda hurts. ive been with this franchise since 2015 and its occupied a massive part of my mind for all those years. what are us crazy fans gonna do when deltarune is over and the community slows down

Summer newsletter's out...and they're still not even done with Chapter 3. Rip 2023 release, and maybe even 2024 release.

and suddenly you notice 2024 is only 4 months away

One thing I’m curious about is how Toby’s other projects fit into this timeline. As far as I’m aware, since the beginning of Deltarune, he helped produce a song for Hololive talent Houshou Marine under the alias U.N. Izu and voice acted in an episode of Cartoon Network’s We Baby Bears. I am unaware of anything else he’s done but I doubt that’s the last of it

This was an incredible video! Hope to see more like this from you in the future!

This aged like milk, and I like cheese. Can’t believe, but am very happy with the recent news.

Judging by the wording in the 2023 summer newsletter, the progress is more closer to something like this imo: Chapter 3 (much smaller chapter in terms of story content): 65% Chapter 4 (normal sized chapter in terms of story content): 5% Chapter 5 (not specified how big it will be): 5% I think Fall 2026 would be a more likely release window

I don't want Toby to hurry, he shall take his time, but I would like to see Chapter 7 being finished before he dies.

The summer issue of the newsletter is out! They are currently working on the final over world area so.. I don't think that September is possible unfortunately

Personally, I like to think chapters 3, 4, & 5 have all been worked on at the same time and not one. Like, in a similar way to the back to the future movies. I think a lot of stuff will become interconnected and event planning will depend on things happening in previous chapters. This would probably put development ahead of the theorized schedule, maybe, sorta, ksdjkfnsldfj.

Most Sane Deltarune Fan:

This is an incredible video! Such high quality content deserves far more views. On a more relevant note, I'm hyped for the Newsletter! Will report back after it comes out lol. I expect that chapters 3-5 will contain the main bulk of the Knight's story, with 6 being a wrap-up and 7 being a true lab/Photoshop Flowey/Asriel styled Toby Fox Classic (tm) Finale, and I'm super hyped to finally meet the Knight, who is definitely secretly Sans in an Ice-E costume!

great video, but I think that when Toby says that chapter 2 is the biggest I think he's saying that it's going to be the base work for the other chapters with a more complicated system than chapter 1 not the biggest lenght wise, honestly I don't think it would be possible to make a chapter less than an hour and 30 minutes if thay all follow the same structure, chapter 4 and 5 are also when the game will start to cost money, I don't think Toby would put a price on something that is shorter than chapter 2

imagine if toby watched this video and slowed down production of chapter 3/4/5 just to mess with you. would kinda be funny as hell.

You know... i would've loved it if Toby decided he wanted to release chapters 3-5 separately despite what he stated earlier. If Toby did in fact put all attention to finishing chapter 3, i think we could possibly get it done untill the end of this year. Also let's be honest, if would be a win/win for everyone! Chapter 2 provided us with so much content, that people are talking about it and making theories to this day, almost 2 years after it released. If Chapter 3 was released alone, it would definitely be enough to satisfy people for at least a year, even considering it's gonna be around lenght of Chapter 1 (possibly smaller). In fact, in my opinion releasing all 3 chapters at once is much worse idea after all. Why? Because opposed to Chapters 1 and 2, the next 3 wouldn't feel as special separately. I love the idea of people analysing every single bit of separate chapter and predicting what comes next. Also, releasing all 3 chapters at once would just shorten the hype for waiting for the game to be completed. Heck, i'd even propose a compromise. I'd pay for chapters 3-5 together, if it meant we'd possibly get chapter 3 this year and let's say... next 2, a year apart from each other.

1:05 wow that was a very high quality sound effect!

I want Toby to see this and release the chapter just a day later than your prediction. Nothing more, nothing less. I haven’t even seen the video yet but I really really want it to happen. I will watch though I’m just gonna sleep first

I'm used to seeing you make music videos so it was quite a surprise to see a video like this. Hopefully this get's popular, the effort is insane.

Well, you were partially correct. Chapter 3 was finished from around 1 month ago Although, chapter 3 and 4 are now going to release together now

Wow, I can’t wait for the 31st……..

Something I would LOVE, is if Chapter 3 came out for UT's next anniversary, and then Chapter 5 comes out on Halloween for Deltarune's anniversary. (chapter 4 in the middle between them) That would let us go through each chapter with a fine comb, like we have for 1 and 2, without there being huge gaps of suffering & waiting between them. I don't care if I have to wait for 2024 for that either, I just don't want to have to go social media dark for what is probably equivalent to about chapters 1&2 combined lol. Also, I'm putting genuine stock into this timeline because it's the only reason I can think of for Toby having to potentially cut the Cowboy Segment, as with how complete chapter 3 was I thought we'd be on pace for chapter 5 by next year easily. Unless of course, he was shooting for an anniversary this year. Or at least a chapter release? He might of decided to go with a single chapter release outright (the Newsletter MINIMAL tier says "Chapter" singular after all)

13:30 You failed. You had to say determination!

I just realized Deltarune is already almost 5 years old... what ? Like, how ??

It's okay, i'm literally desperate for the release of these chapters, it's ok.

We will see if you're right soon enough (late 2023 does seem a bit hopeful though, I'm estimating some time in 2024 is more likely) Edit: apparently Chapter 3 is still not done but it's close, that probably changes up the prediction

cool video! it's nice to have a deep dive into it like this. i was looking at the updates and stuff, and i sorta have the feeling that it'd come in december because...i guess a dess tie-in. halloween seems like it'd be a _little_ tough to make work, because they didn't mention chapter 4 in the previous newsletter, but i think they could still pull it off

Great video, finally a release theory built on facts instead of conspiracy

Ok Im Calling It, December 25th 2023, At The Latest.

As a Pikmin fan I am used to waiting but still very hyped

September 15 is my birthday, so you calling it a special date makes me happy. Thank you

Sturfall!? I wasn't expecting to have KZfaq autoplay to a video like this, amazing work once again man!

Thanks for one more dose of hopium before the newsletter. Tbh tho Sans's 'maybe another two years' has been the only thing that got me past the 21 months

this video is awesome! it's a complete summary of every hint we have and Logic thinking, you're amazing thank you, currently seeing the video and I'm having a blast!

I had a dream and it realesed on september 12 for some reason..

Hey, this was pretty well put together, a fully comprehensive analysis of Deltarune's development and prediction of 3-5's release. I liked how you emphasized that your predictions for the release were speculative and how you even stopped yourself from going too far in that one part of the video (forgot the timestamp). Yet another Deltarune theorist that knows how to stay grounded. Also, I appreciate the shoutout to my video in the description. 👀 You've earned yourself a sub just for that, and well, for making a fantastic Deltarune theory.

I really appreciate your work on this video! And I'm so hyped for the upcoming chapters.

whelp now we know that they're working on phase three of chapter three specifically, which if this video is correct, it should be here anywhere from four months to the end of the year. gonna guesstimate six months cause it makes me feel good

Imagine if toby makes it a day later just to fuck with us

Look, I'm not gonna lie. I instantly skipped to the date you calculated, but as a sign of respect I'm going to play the whole video in mute while I study a little

I'm worried about the pace of development. Can't shake the feeling we'll wait until like, September next year to see all 3 chapters get finished. In which, the pace of development would only seem marginally faster than it was before, despite Toby hiring more people to help out and these chapters supposedly being smaller. Would be SO happy if this wasn't the case though.

Chapter 3 will not come out until he finished 4 and 5

yo, this kicks ass! you're so measured and thoughtful, love to see this in the community!

It's looking like a 2024 release since the newsletter told us that chapter 3 wasnt finished yet. I hope it releases before April at the latest but who knows

I kinda hope it does come out as this timeline predicted just for the fact alone it would mean Sans predicted the timeline, which would be absolutely hilarious

I already made this release theory for myself before and i just gotta say... I F#CKING KNEW IT

Man is the cabin fever for the community reeeeeaaally setting in huh.

I swear to god if sans predicted the release date of the next new chapters I’m going to flip lol

just a thought, but it's interesting to think that they could be deliberately leaving out info for chapter 5 so that they could do another surprise release like chapter 2

Its kinda a crazy but do you guys think toby will be down after this. I mean this was his big project after undertale. What could possibly be next for him

Holy shit it’s been almost 3 years since chapter 2

Your editing is phenomenal!

Okay, upon reading the newsletter it became obvious that it won't come out this year. And while it's very very sad and unfortunate for normal fans, fangame devs have another year to make a fanmade version. We've not just won time, but won an entire f*cking year to work!!! YEEEAH BABY!!

December Holiday *mic dropped*

13:39 Toby Sox.

Good luck calculating karlson's release date

This is something I always wanted to do, but never wanted to put in the effort to do! Thanks!

December Holiday… hmm…. Maybe it releases Christmas

you know what would be cool here? A timeline (or atleast I think so not sure about others

It's awesome to see this video getting so much attention, it's _extremely_ well put-together and completely deserves all this support!! You have a great voice, all the theorizing make complete sense and were very well-researched, and you explained everything really clearly. And your editing is amazing too! The *massive* amount of time and effort you put into this video really shows, every single part of it is very high-quality and done _incredibly_ well!! You did an absolutely phenomenal job on all of it, this is honestly one of the best UT/DR theory videos I've ever watched.

i doubt it will come out this year but i will be pleasantly surprised. My guess is sometime around halfway through 2024

Another thing to consider that would be nice is that if toby adds chapters 3-4 , releases 5 at a later date, so that we have a nice slow pace feel for the game. Because when the game ends, some of the mysteries of the game will fade. Maybe even the vibe of waiting will just fade. Enjoy these times.

super excited for the newsletter!!! :DDD

Toby fox has the oportunity to do the funniest thing imaginable

Nice video! The editing is really nice and also funny sometimes. It's crazy the level of quality small KZfaqrs have these days!

maybe 2 years is a reasonable enough timeframe, but i cant get "3 years" out of my head for tobys game release dates..

Most sane deltarune fan

i was gonna skip to the release date, but it said dont skip here please so i had mercy

Can't wait for- Oh wait.

Just found ur channel and you have an amazing vibe dude, great video!

Solid analysis, I was thinking along the same lines myself after reading the updates.

aaaaaand the newsletter just arrived, might have wanted to wait for it until finishing this video since chapter 3 is like 99 percent done

oh wow! you were right ab the newsletter

What if it releases sometime in December to tie into Dess, or just the Holidays in general. If not then I’m predicting chapter 6 and 7 will be released in December of whatever year that will be.