Love to see this! I'm glad our conversation in the last video had at least a bit of influence on this one :). Also loved that you used a rolling window forecast. Another step that could be interesting to take is using a variety of GARCH (T-GARCH, EGARCH, etc.) models to predict volatility of the growth rate and even better. Use it to measure VaR (value at risk). This incorporates risk management into your model which I think is crucial.
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the suggestions! Modeling volatility via GARCH would definitely be an improvement
@gravious Жыл бұрын
I'm still only learning data science in my spare time, but I love the layering of techniques :) It's also helping me develop my math skills when I try to replicate the models in C# and validate my work.. Your method of explaining these techniques is terrific, thanks so much :)
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Great to hear!
@cheesecake202020 Жыл бұрын
I love this series! Will you do a walkthrough the code like for episode 1?
@emmang20105 ай бұрын
Just amazing
@ritvikmath5 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@Deacc Жыл бұрын
These financial data projects are severely interesting
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks! I think so too
@kirilkovacheski1358 Жыл бұрын
Awesome content man, keep it coming!
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks! Will do
@axscs1178 Жыл бұрын
Great video! Thanks for posting! Have you considered to use the Sharpe Ratio criteria for choosing what % you allocate to each stock / instrument once you have selected them using the ARMA model?
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks! And yes I did think about proportional allocation but eventually decided against it because it felt like over-engineering the method a bit
@NootNoot777 Жыл бұрын
awesome video, thank you!
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Glad you liked it!
@jasonree Жыл бұрын
Awesome video, I wondered if you would try a time series to make predictions. Looking forward to seeing the outcome!
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Me too!
@theprofessionalfence-sitter Жыл бұрын
Trying to beat the stock market is generally going to be hard, given the number of experts investing in it. It'd probably be a better idea to try the experiment for more niche markets (prediction markets, video games economies that allow you to trade in-game currency for actual money, ...) or markets where the number of experts is significantly lower (e.g. sports betting, which you can treat as a market by instead betting on the other team, when you would otherwise sell).
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
I’m definitely learning the old adage of “you can’t beat the market” is proving true 😂 thanks for the recommendations!
@jasonree Жыл бұрын
Additionally, would be interesting to pull in an unrelated data source, for example top 10 daily news stories and do some sentiment analysis. You could see if the normal news correlates to stock movements
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Definitely want to do one of these methods using news stories, thanks for the input!
@kaushal.mp4 Жыл бұрын
*I Love Your Videos!*
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks!!
@gravious Жыл бұрын
I meant to ask, is there going to be a video, or a notebook or source code that goes into the implementation of this method?
@robharwood3538 Жыл бұрын
Wouldn't P(CI INC) necessarily be _less_ than P(FIT)? Because you can't predict the CI interval if you can't even fit the data using the model, right? Maybe you meant for P(CI INC) to be a *conditional* probability, i.e. P(CI INC | FIT)?
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Hey great point and I should have been more clear. Indeed when I mention P(CI INC) it’s really the conditional probability you mention
@liamdoesmath2106 Жыл бұрын
What are you using to trade the stocks themselves?
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
I use Robinhood to trade
@liamdoesmath2106 Жыл бұрын
@@ritvikmath I assume there are fees for trading over a short interval?
@Anonymuskk Жыл бұрын
How many iitans are watching this video ❤❤
@ITFA Жыл бұрын
Not the best idea from a financial point of view.
@ritvikmath Жыл бұрын
Thanks for the input! Would love to hear why
@ITFA Жыл бұрын
@@ritvikmath market efficiency means that public info is baked into stock prices. The proposed strategy can produce short term gains but likely will not outperform the market in the long run. In other words, it is possible to get a higher return for the same risk profile