from his discription- In this new series I'll be going undercover on a new account climbing to the top 100 (I already reached top 500)!

The stream was titled to 500, people said he was undershooting and he himself understood how easy it is to reach top 500, so he changed it to top 100

i wonder how this changes in the colonist 1v1 mode since a 7-out there is at 10 cards. So you lose more from it but there are also a lot fewer rolls until your next turn - i find myself holding quite a bit and not regretting it in that format.

@@joshthefunkdoc I never played that mode, but it's not hard to calculate the odds of rolling a 7. It is always P=1-(5/6)^x where x is the number of rolls. Out of 1 roll: 16.7% Out of 2 rolls: 30.6% Out of 3 rolls: 42.1% Out of 4 rolls: 51.8% So I am guessing since it's 1v1 if you pass with over 9 cards you have to survive 2 rolls? In that case at 10 cards you would on average lose 5*0.306, so about 1.5 cards. While 4:1 still loses you 3, so it's definitely worth staying unless for some very specific reason. These are just average numbers, not the end all be all solutions. 4:1 for a rare resource you need and don't expect to get through trades might be a better play than risking the 7. Each instance should be looked at independently.

@@fisher00769 Somewhat true, But If you hold, and would otherwise 4:1 the resource on your next Orbit, doing it before you have a 50/50 of 7ing Out is better.

I think the idea is that not all resources are valued equally. In the 4:1 sheep to ore instance, it made sense since he has no way to get ore besides trading. The only resources he has available to trade are sheep so if he 4:1s now, he can trade sheep for ore later. If he trades it early or holds, hes just going to have to 4:1 sheep for ore on the next turn anyways cuz no one is going to trade him 2 ore.

@@darthskixx2263 And the other part to consider with this is that Colonist 1v1 uses friendly robber rules, so the opponent can't block you or steal your resources until you build a settlement/city or you obtain Longest Road/Largest Army. A fairly common scenario in that mode is to use an opening setup that leaves you without sheep, with your first expansion spot giving you good sheep. Since you only need 1 sheep to get things going and you know you're guaranteed to keep that sheep until you settle, a 4:1 makes a lot more sense once you get close to 10 cards. Once you've ditched the Friendly Robber shield, though, it becomes much more like what InStinct described.

What's smurfing

There’s no such thing as smurfing in Catan lol. If anything him playing on his regular account is bad for him because of reputation blocks.