I Simulated EURO 2024 10,000 Times.
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20 күн бұрынSecure your privacy with Surfshark! Enter coupon code ALLCOTT for an extra 3 months free at surfshark.deals/allcott
Many thanks to Craig Edwards from @UnderthePitch!
Here's how the simulation works: • EURO 2024 Simulations:...
In this video, James Allcott simulates EURO 2024 10,000 times and looks at every group, how the knockout stage could look, likely routes to the final and who could win.
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James Allcott content focuses on Premier League, Champions League, EFL Championship talking about Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham, Barcelona, England, Chelsea, Jurgen Klopp, Erik Ten Hag, Mikel Arteta, transfer news, tactical analysis and much more. James has made content with Mark Goldbridge from the United Stand, Rory Jennings, Ben Foster, Spencer FC, The Club, Thogden, JaackMaate, ESPN and many more.
#PremierLeague #JLA #football
@twenty-two8651 19 күн бұрын
Well I simulated it 10 001 times and still have no girlfriend.
@omorodionblessing8608 16 күн бұрын
Related comment
@bettercalIsaul 14 күн бұрын
A bit like England
@mihaistoichescu9745 8 күн бұрын
Ok
@Amine_meddah 4 күн бұрын
Dam same
@PLAsshole 4 күн бұрын
same😢
@Flewisjr 19 күн бұрын
After the tournament is finished, can you show what simulation was the closest?
@ramon7473 8 күн бұрын
Very good idea!
@HarryFernandes15 7 күн бұрын
that be very interesting
@sandrobarreto7002 7 күн бұрын
That would be insane, imagine if one of the 10'000 simulations was actually spot on!
@PLAsshole 4 күн бұрын
yes
@Stolz_statt_Scholz 19 күн бұрын
I mean you need to simulate Bundesliga 18000 times, to get the unbeaten Leverkusen
@awieaffe4278 13 күн бұрын
we just good buddy
@gabrielpatrick2051 6 күн бұрын
Bro I don't believe 18000 simulations would give us unbeaten Leverkusen Maybe Bayern in some moments, but not Leverkusen
@sallagjanos7288 6 күн бұрын
@@gabrielpatrick2051 Bayern would get one in like 50, or even less
@PLAsshole 4 күн бұрын
They are unbeaten outside of BuLi too
@PLAsshole 4 күн бұрын
@@sallagjanos7288when was the last time BM had 50 unbeaten games? LK has 49 so far iirc.
@ShaunLevett 19 күн бұрын
That's so like Switzerland to draw every game. Nice and neutral.
@otto_jk 19 күн бұрын
I think the simulation heavily underestimates how big a difference Germany having the home advantage gives them. There's no way Belgium are bigger favourites than Germany.
@UnderThePitch 19 күн бұрын
Hi, I made the simulations and Germany’s home advantage was taken into account. I think the model favours Belgium as over the past couple years they’ve been a bit more consistent than Germany, who have dropped to 16th in the World Rankings compared to Belgium being 3rd. That paired with Belgium having a much more generous group than Germany (Belgium get out the group 90% of the time compared to Germany’s 84%), I can see why the model has Belgium ahead of Germany. (However, personally I agree with you and think Germany have a good chance)
@otto_jk 19 күн бұрын
@@UnderThePitch With Belgium and Germany specifically, the simulation also hasn't taken into account how heavily the squads have changed recently. Nagelsmann+Kroos basically makes the Flick era data irrelevant and similarly Belgium have recently lost key players like Hazard and Alderweireld. Also Belgiums consistent dominance against weak teams even though they aren't that good against big teams makes them stronger in the rankings than they actually are.
@antoniobento2105 18 күн бұрын
You are absolutely right Belgium is very underrated. Also Portugal being favourites doesn't surprise me considering that after the round of 16 they get in the oposite side (meaning they will likely only face France, England or Belgium in the finals and not before) and that gives them a huge probabilistic advantage. I had calculated arround 16% chance of them winning but that's with a little bit of bias and hope because I am portuguese. Nice work! :)@@UnderThePitch
@detectivefabes 18 күн бұрын
It’s because Germany is bad
@otto_jk 18 күн бұрын
@@detectivefabes Germany just beat France
@MichaelJones-wh9cy 19 күн бұрын
Makes sense if Portugal have a very high likelihood of getting out of their group, means they're less likely to trip up earlier on
@brgracio 18 күн бұрын
Yeah, in this sim we (Portugal) have more tries than anyone else, so it can make the difference in the number of tournament wins. It would be interesting to see a metric like #tournament wins / # knockout qualifications. That would help remove the bias from having an easier group.
@stephano2996 4 күн бұрын
To be fair its almost harder not to advance to the final 16 😂
@tfc91420 18 күн бұрын
Portugal probably has a top 3 squad in Europe right now, the easiest group and the easiest side of the bracket if they win their group. It makes a lot of sense that they finished top of this tbh.
@joao_monteiro22 9 күн бұрын
you on drugs
@codiesmith9425 19 күн бұрын
Please can you make an analysis of Arne Slot's tactics and how Liverpool would play with them?
@bigted6351 19 күн бұрын
I've been waiting for this too. Complete the trilogy after Alonso and Amorim
@ProducerCai 19 күн бұрын
👀
@thew5262 19 күн бұрын
Bald n vibes
@JamesLawrenceAllcott 19 күн бұрын
Keep an eye on the channel tomorrow! 👀
@Saka_is_overrated 19 күн бұрын
Yes PLS!
@TheGreatKerro 19 күн бұрын
As a Scot, in this moment in time I feel we are going home with no points and no goals.
@tbow6719 19 күн бұрын
This explains a lot about why Scot’s celebrate other nations beating England as much as their own team winning
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
And yet, most English wouldn't mind seeing the Scots do alright. Who is the bigger man here?
@OleAndreasMessi 18 күн бұрын
As a Norwegian, atleast you're going...
@TheGreatKerro 18 күн бұрын
@@tbow6719 being winless in 7 is a killer for the belief machine
@finlaygodfrey8222 17 күн бұрын
@@TheGreatKerroinjuries galore as well😢
@kd5973 18 күн бұрын
I would say Portugal are by far the faves. Their form is insane right now. They’re scoring a ton of goals.
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
Portugal are up there, but "by far" is a bit fruity. England and France are the joint favourites, followed by Portugal and Spain.
@henriquecaldas835 11 күн бұрын
@@jamesg9468England???? Did you saw they playing football on the last national games?
@Briareos1712 6 күн бұрын
Well... Germany just beat France, so... Consider putting them up there as well
@LetsTalkFPL 19 күн бұрын
Not watched yet but I imagine England win 9,999 times.
@Dwayndibb 17 күн бұрын
He must be using Pep or Klopp as the manager.
@NotApplicableF1 19 күн бұрын
These videos are so so so good. Thank you so much again James.
@10ondra 19 күн бұрын
Love the 8150, where Czech Republic makes the semis.
@BohemianRaichu 19 күн бұрын
I've been saying that people are sleeping on Portugal. I deserve a cookie.
@bhvillaman4401 19 күн бұрын
People been saying that since the dawn of time and what have they won? 1 euros?
@BohemianRaichu 19 күн бұрын
@@bhvillaman4401 more Euros than a fair few countries, including England.
@wesley5900 19 күн бұрын
@@bhvillaman4401 dos incoming
@user-dt4sb1dw5t 19 күн бұрын
Surely that just makes you a bot
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
Lol imagine thinking Portugal are a dark horse. Most predictions have England, France and Portugal as the top contenders.
@brucemccrorie3751 18 күн бұрын
Vamos Portugal!! 🇵🇹
@dariussalepetru6770 16 күн бұрын
Good luck from Romania 🇷🇴💛🇵🇹
@sasch_xd6323 13 күн бұрын
🫶🇵🇹🤝🇷🇴@@dariussalepetru6770
@CallumStephens2705 19 күн бұрын
I did some data crunching and decided that Slovakia are the most likely dark horses outside the obvious teams so put £1 on them to win the whole thing 😂
@joelschittenhelm5571 14 күн бұрын
If you put 1 on every Team its not that big of a loss if a favourite team wins but probably a massiv win if an underdog wins
@hudsonrolfe9633 19 күн бұрын
The "more like stimulation" line killed me, something straight out of a skit show didn't know you had it in you James 🤣
@BSandman 19 күн бұрын
So there’s going to be a lot of draws and pens in the knockouts and maybe a upset here and there, also a dark horse run as well. Going to be an exciting tournament!
@reecevanwyk2579 19 күн бұрын
I've been waiting for this video😏❤
@sheilaburrowes9081 11 күн бұрын
I adore the retro look on the knockout brackets. It looks like a mid '00s Euros.
@lewistrundell9466 19 күн бұрын
Bloody love a JLA video
@evanmurphy122 19 күн бұрын
I love the thought that someone would want to watch Amerifan commentary for the Euros
@HawkEye665 7 күн бұрын
Being polish football fan is hard 9:56
@markstrauss7178 17 күн бұрын
I actually predict Portugal will have a surprisingly early exit this year. I think that the stats favour them so much because of their qualification record. However, they had a really easy group and didn’t look too convincing with their narrow victories over Slovakia and Iceland. I predict a round of 16 or quarter final exit for them.
@radiatormike6090 16 күн бұрын
Partly agree with you, I don’t think they’ll exit early but I really don’t think they’ll win it, but who knows
@dariussalepetru6770 16 күн бұрын
@@radiatormike6090 True! I think England, Germany or France is going to win Euro 2024 now
@radiatormike6090 15 күн бұрын
@@dariussalepetru6770 I actually completely agree with those 3 yeah, as an England fan I'll will always hold some optimism aha
@kretecek_rl 10 күн бұрын
I would go with quarters or semis. They are a good team, but no shot they have a better chance than Spain, England or France. My top 5 only have Belgium changed with Germany and some different placements with France and England on top.
@someone8653 7 күн бұрын
Quarters are not too early.. But i agree with RO16 I Think they will go out in the RO16 too and pass 2nd in their group.
@sirdoesstuff950 5 күн бұрын
keeper: clean sheet the entire tournament, even on pens ballon d'or: and the winner of the ballon d'or 2024 is.... MESSI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@echoinstereo5659 19 күн бұрын
I’d rather have England win 4-3 over everyone than win the whole tournament by one goal, but with Southgate still at the helm winning with only one goal seems on brand. Rooting for England this summer from across the pond!
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
Mate I'm old enough to remember when England would labour to score 1 goal against teams ranked 70th in the world, and with Southgate we've scored 6 goals in single games at major tournaments. Not saying Southgate tactics are great, but don't pretend we are starved on goals.
@sheilaburrowes9081 11 күн бұрын
👍👍👍
@Young-fy9jj 19 күн бұрын
do a vid after euros reflecting to see how accurate it was
@Audiostyleable 19 күн бұрын
Love the outro
@littlelucy100x8 18 күн бұрын
Big up Craig
@Alaiksandr 19 күн бұрын
It would be amazing for England to play Portugal at some point in the knockouts. We have some revenge to dish out.
@Thomas-xi3yd 11 күн бұрын
Lol it is portugal that have some revenge to dish out
@froodlenoodle 19 күн бұрын
gotta love the three "first" videos, excited to watch england win 4 times and norway manage to win it 5 times somehow
@user-xm1vl6gv8s 5 күн бұрын
I hope Belgium wil win, they are still one of the most undertated teams. In the lost euro they where knocked out by Italy, who won the whole thing, in the world cup they where in a group with Morocco and Croatia, who ended very high in the tournament, and they do won against Canada, they just had hard groups, now they have an easyer one, I think they will surprise us... 🇧🇪🥇👑🔥💯💪🌟
@JosephTaroni 16 күн бұрын
Wonder if by the end of the tournament any of the simulation got the entire thing spot on
@miken56 19 күн бұрын
That simulation noise transition noise sounds like a tech bug in my ear
@julioleiva2037 11 күн бұрын
4:25 boca juniors be like
@jakelfc3472 19 күн бұрын
It's teams from group B other than Albania and the winners of group A, C, D and F that will win the overall tournament. It all depends on whether Spain win group B and won't/don't lose all their knockout matches other than the final, or England beat the third placed team in that group (probably not Croatia) and have a shot at facing France (winner of group D) in the semi-final. England are hoping that Portugal (winner of group F) face Germany (winner of group A) in the other side of the draw in a semi-final, so we have a chance of playing the game of our lives to beat France (who I believe only Germany have the beating of). It's possible that the semi final is a repeat of the nations league final Spain vs Croatia, or the World cup final of 2018 being a final between France vs Croatia. That's what the simulator should have told us.
@cindella204 14 күн бұрын
I’m based in Washington DC where the embassies like to host watch events, and I’m trying to imagine the British Embassy’s joint watch event for an England v Scotland final, and then what happens when Scotland declares independence the next day 😂
@empty420 19 күн бұрын
It makes senses that portugal is above france taken in consideration the strenght of the groups in the first round due to the group of france being way stronger than the one of portugal the chance of maken it out of the group of portugal is way higher and if they make it out to be first because then you have to face weaker opisition wich means that it less likely for portugal to face an oponent like england or france in the first round of knock-outs this means its more likely to get further in the tournament and win the entire thing -
@CalciatoriCollector0217 8 күн бұрын
Georgia has the highest possibility to get bottom, but nice video 🎉
@rredy 9 күн бұрын
12:32 czeczia
@thechroniknerd 18 күн бұрын
I love this video! I also hate the sound effects
@melem7808 5 күн бұрын
fun fact, croatia since indepedence never lost against Italy, only draws or wins against them.
@JonMcglynn 19 күн бұрын
Where’s the SLOT video his stile of playing the man and how he would line out ?
@hanys6201 6 күн бұрын
As a Polish dude I can see that group D looks pretty realistic, we gonna finish 4th and just say cy@ to whole Ass EURO 2024
@nestpasunepipe1173 6 күн бұрын
can you simulate 10000 more for recent euro so that we can be sure that the simulation works pls
@aloysiusthefish7076 17 күн бұрын
The transition sound effect sounds like erupting splooge
@adanaliz01 11 күн бұрын
is there a place where you can see all the simulations?
@ryancook3039 19 күн бұрын
Cheers Jim I needed this to know which days to book off work ❤
@VeronicaMorris-ri5wk Күн бұрын
1 month to gooooooooo
@devangg 19 күн бұрын
Loved the take me out part 😂😂😂
@techfreak2227 19 күн бұрын
Devang ????
@devangg 19 күн бұрын
@@techfreak2227 yeah?
@techfreak2227 17 күн бұрын
@@devangg it's you , are you in 12th or no ?
@Luke-ft4wo 8 күн бұрын
Bro Serbia coming below Slovenia is MAD
@edavis6077 18 күн бұрын
PORTUGAAALLLLLL
@wijnandfens2259 15 күн бұрын
You are the first one who use the right schedule (Best #3 rule) the best numbers 3 are distributed differently over the 1st knock out round, because it is determined from which groups the numbers 3 come from, based on that 'code' it is determined where the country is placed in the next round. Poules vs 1B vs 1C vs 1E vs 1F ABCD 3A 3D 3B 3C ABCE 3A 3E 3B 3C ABCF 3A 3F 3B 3C ABDE 3D 3E 3A 3B ABDF 3D 3F 3A 3B ABEF 3E 3F 3B 3A ACDE 3E 3D 3C 3A ACDF 3F 3D 3C 3A ACEF 3E 3F 3C 3A ADEF 3E 3F 3D 3A BCDE 3E 3D 3B 3C BCDF 3F 3D 3C 3B BCEF 3F 3E 3C 3B BDEF 3F 3E 3D 3B CDEF 3F 3E 3D 3C Great!!! Al the youtubers who made a prediction with 'the Telegraph' schedule are wrong, cause that schedule isn't right. So keep up the good work!
@eastres6863 18 күн бұрын
i feel the same way about spain as he feels about england. uncomfortable with the idea that we should be expected to win this group. i think we really need a showing this tournament that gives us some pride and confidence again. hoping for a breakout goalscorer. VIVA LA ROJA
@Andy-w33to 19 күн бұрын
Portugal with some mad easy group tax
@samuelschonenberger 19 күн бұрын
Winnimg the tournament drawing every game? We are the Kings of neutrality
@Alex-yv4vr 19 күн бұрын
10,000 is obviously a lot of sims. But with such variance, it’s probably not a large enough sample size
@PatrickvanStokken 19 күн бұрын
Better watch this right away before it gets deleted like the relegation prediction vid!
@Mr.Galaxxxxxxxxxxy 19 күн бұрын
San Marino 🇸🇲 🙌🏾
@alexandre4970 18 күн бұрын
Damn. We favorites? That means we are crashing out in the group stage.
@raphaelweber8007 11 күн бұрын
7:43 what about England in the semi finals 🫢🤣
@Thomas-jl8xr 19 күн бұрын
zwitzerland going for the portugal 2016 route
@roberw1912 12 күн бұрын
I have a dark horse in Germany Florian Wirtz is going to make the difference in his ability to score and give assists.
@SinoLegionaire 19 күн бұрын
It’s official, a Scotsman made this simulation
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
Jimbo is part Scotch.
@darrenadams77 19 күн бұрын
i would never mentally or financially recover from a Scotland england final. Hadrian's wall would be rebuilt and Wallace could finally rest. CMONNNNN!
@jamesg9468 18 күн бұрын
The Scotch will get 0 points and 0 goals, thanks for coming though.
@matthewtillett3624 19 күн бұрын
When’s the Liverpool slot coming ?
@kempyj98 19 күн бұрын
Turkey Austria and Switzerland feel like parennial 3rd place dark horses🤣
@rafa_maia 12 күн бұрын
is there a way for people to use this simulation?
@deepxgamer2313 17 күн бұрын
portugal we have a soild team this year soild in every position I bewe can reach the final semifinalists euro 2000 finalists euro 2004 2012 semifinalists 2016 winner's
@spooked2104 19 күн бұрын
Germany pens {Neuer}
@bogomildimov6360 6 күн бұрын
While I do think FM has always, rather undeserved, favored England for good International performances, this EURO might just be the one England finally wins. I mean, I have never seen England so powerful. 2018, 2021 and 2022 have been good for them, but now the team has matured and many of their players are comfortably among the top players in the world. I'd say England and France will be the top favorites. Portugal is the third option. I can't see any other team winning it, unless Italy pulls an Italy and fucks everybody up like they tend to do, from time to time, out of fucking nowhere.
@stein4866 14 күн бұрын
a fourteen minute video with a two minute ad😂
@just_a_yokai1103 19 күн бұрын
12:33 France against who? It is confusing that Czechia and Chechnya are written the same in the middle but are pronounced differently
@henrybauze2932 19 күн бұрын
I think Portugal won so many times because they had the easiest group and so got through in about 2 thirds of sims - also explains why France was so low If you did it from the most common knockout configuration I’d say England wins most of the time
@Gugenzi 19 күн бұрын
🇬🇪 ITS COMING HOMEE‼️‼️
@AndrewL4me 19 күн бұрын
What happens in the simulations with the English media, any good stories?
@thomashart3473 19 күн бұрын
I really fancy Netherlands to win it, but i dont know why 🤔
@adampatel1727 19 күн бұрын
James wheres the slot Liverpool video maaaan
@eldo7112 10 күн бұрын
13:23 might as well have not censored the countries flags at all, you can see every one jesus
@Jose-fb1yu 9 күн бұрын
La simulación 8540 me gusta
@mahfuzrahman5930 19 күн бұрын
What happened to the fall out
@gs_bilo1493 7 күн бұрын
Just put 500€ to Portugal winning the euros. Thanks for your advice
@Jamie-kf2vf 16 күн бұрын
I'm not disputing the simulations, but for me I'd swap Portugal and France for the number 1 spot. I think number 1 will be England or France, but with Southgate it's hard to imagine England reaching their potential.
@otakubaka4271 12 күн бұрын
The reason why portugal are favorites on stats its because they are a top 3 side with the easiest group More chanses to go 1st and easier first round of 16 more times than france and england Theyre most likely path is also way easier with england and france being on the same side of the knockouts with portugal on the other side if all 3 teams finish first in theire group
@ohno6044 19 күн бұрын
i love you
@ricardo_ribeirete 13 күн бұрын
Let's go Portugal 🇵🇹
@mike727272 18 күн бұрын
Portugal 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹❤🎉🎉 Força Portugal 🇵🇹 🍻❤️👏💪💪💪
@Kbdvlogsfan 19 күн бұрын
The biggest takeaway from this video for me is that Scotland are winning the final against England 😍
@anteandrovic 3 күн бұрын
ahh yes simulation 4980, who cozld forget that one, England wins the tournament after 10000 simulatiins, once.
@gracelikesgrapes7161 2 күн бұрын
I would bet 10€ that portugal wont make it in the finale if i could
@nope2dat 16 күн бұрын
England somehow winning despite only scoring 1 goal in the knockouts I think might actually explode the brains of the Southgate out gang
@ChorltonOutlaw 19 күн бұрын
OK bro
@victordemoura448 18 күн бұрын
Força Portugal 🇵🇹
@RuaidhriMcLaughlinDowd 19 күн бұрын
GIGO
@noskill4510 16 күн бұрын
I'm German and allthough I'd like the outcome of sim 7820, I'm sure my nerves wont...
@LeaguePredictor 19 күн бұрын
I know a place you can predict your Euros versus friends and the World
@gamesforyou9404 4 күн бұрын
RO16 quarters semi's Final 3rd place Spain Spain Austria Germany Germany Germany Denmark Portugal Portugal Italy Portugal Germany Netherlands Portugal Netherlands Ukraine Belgium France England Belgium Switserland France France France England France Czechia England England Turkey England Hungary Croatia Croatia
@jhannon27 19 күн бұрын
you mean it wasnt simulated using football manager?!
@Nippleless_Cage 19 күн бұрын
Methinks Craig's method overestimates the likelihood of 0-0 draws in every round. 🤔
@patrikivic2695 8 күн бұрын
The Godfather part 1
@barnaclefelching4079 19 күн бұрын
❤
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