Government spending isn’t going to stop and neither is inflation

“Free money is one hell of a drug “

The CPI does not count food or energy. Both are sky high. If you add that to CPI it is much higher than what is being reported!!!

Rates should never be below 5% and usually be closer to 10%.

Interest rates aren’t high, they’re normal for a well functioning economy. Savers should have some incentive. This idea that interest rates should be below the inflation rate is nuts to me.

Millennials, let me explain life under high interest rates. Learn to enjoy time with your family and friends. Be ready for humility and not caring about what brands your wearing. Credit will be so tight that you will have to be perfect to get it. So expect to keep your car for 10 years. Tighten up people. The longer you keep spending frivolously the longer this is going to hurt.

Over 8% according to 1990 measure at Shadow Stats. Powell won’t beat inflation with these low interest rates 😕

Out of control deficit spending and interest payments on debt will eventually sink the UDS

The answer by this “expert “ is I DOM’T HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT WILL HAPPEN !

I'm losing confidence in J. See no signs of progress. Actually the opposite. J. is not the best thing since "sliced white bread".

Straight Arrow News is wrong on interest rates. On a historical level, going back 120 years, today's interest rates are still about 200 basis points below the historical average.. So, money policy is still too loose to control inflation.

This is deja Vu of 2008, I forecast we'll start seeing more and more layoffs in 6 to 8 months.

She has to still be on the Fed payroll. Wow.

In my experience,I nflation is higher than the numbers you’ve cited. My homeowners insurance tried to raise my rates by 27% this year. No claims. My auto insurance tried to increase my rates by 28%. No tickets, no claims. Both those were on top of large increases last year. Food is higher especially when you factor in “shrink-flation.” Almost everything in grocery stores and restaurants is shrinking, except for the price. It keeps going up. Thank you very much for the information.

I find it really odd that Danielle continually mentions the 1.7% TrueFlation figure when her own NON-discretionary item inflation rate is close to 5%. The non-discretionary items are things that ppl actually NEED and -- as a result -- more directly impact households: I really NEED that box of cereal that's now almost $6, whereas I DON'T need to fly to Atlanta to visit family.

AND WE MUST USE A PROPER WORD ' STAGFLATION' NOT THE STUPID WORD 'STICKY' SAME AS 'TRANSITORY'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)

In 2008 the FED held the feds fund rate at 5.5 for one year and then cut for the downturn and now it's like deja vu, the feds fund rate has been at 5.5 now holding for the last 8 months, so it looks like in the next Florida to 6 months we'll start seeing a lot of layoffs and then at some point the FED will start cutting and the cycle will begin again

Rates are still low historically speaking. Money is still free when there are bailouts, ridiculous government spending and a fiat currency that is technically worthless.

The reality is crystal clear in front of our face. We just dont want to admit it

It’s OK Danielle to say you don’t know. Nobody really does 😊

Of course the FED has control over inflation of all things. When the FED breaks the back of the economy, then inflation of necessities finally falls into deflation. Its brutal, but necessary to fix this unaffordable economy. The years following the the GFC wrre great. Sure, I was laid off twice myself. But after the smoke cleared, i got another job and purchased my first new home for $127K in Northern California! Before the GFC, it sold for $387K!! There are always silver linings to "crisis".

Pretty sad State of affairs for the United States to even have to ask that question, very sad *What would it look like if they held rates higher for longer"

The inflation will be sticky and growing at the same time. When you borrow money to run the govt instead of tax revenues, you are depreciating the currency to boost inflation within the nation "the M1 money supply". This is why it stabilized at 3% and did not go lower, the climb is due to fuel supply and demand.

sorry wrong call to lower rates inflation may not be rising but prices are obscene we actually need a period of healthy deflation

Hike, Hike, Hike! Mr Volker...

We could see interest rates at least 7-8% for quite a few years ahead. Borrowing money is going to be difficult for many. Landlords will have to pump up rentals or they will not be able to pay their own debts. If the war in the Middle East gets worse, we could see a blockade of oil and goods, markedly adding to inflation. The government's problem is paying of the rapidly increasing interest of the massive debt - it could double every 2-3 years.

Danielle, always love your analysis and commentary! Full disclosure, how much $ do you get for mentioning Tru-flation?

I hope it's OKAY i say this.Danielle always looks so hot to me. And I'm saying that as a gentleman but I love listening to her speak.So it's the best of both worlds

NO IT ISN'T Emergency meeting, raise the FFR to 7%, and roll off the almost $9T balance sheet by $500B to $1T per month. That would solve inflation. It would solve the wealth effect. It would solve the Cantillon effect. It would solve grossly bubbled stock and real estate prices. It would create some well needed and deserved deflation. But talking heads make excuses and say the FED is "stuck" or their "hand are tied". That's 100% false.

Danielle, the interviewer is a Millennial concerned with Millennial things .. but go to the other end of the age spectrum, retirees, in a future video to communicate the frightening ramifications. ... My grandmother sold the family farm in the 1960s and expected that windfall to last but her last decade was full of worry about buying food vs paying taxes on her house because the 70s/80s inflation kept consuming her savings so aggressively. Inflation accumulates over time, a snowball avalanche effect! She was not a spender, having lived through the 1930s Depression as a farmer. A friend of the family of similar age and background had to liquidate his house his last five years after a lifetime of saving for the same reason ... Because average people have a hard time understanding the scope of inflation accumulating. Try "The Rule of 72" to communicate savings "doubling" or inflation "halving", and more will understand what inflation is doing to them. Like Hemingway said he went broke slowly at first and then all at once.

I'm surprised to see ads embedded in your videos.

Inflation isn’t out of the Federal Reserves Control. All the have to do is reduce the money supply that they over inflated by 50% during the pandemic. There mistake was using monetary policy to try to fix the economic down turn caused by the pandemic. The exonomiusown turn had nothing to do with economic policy so changing economic policy just threw the economy more out of wack. Look at the money supply charts the Fed was already on an inflationary trend on increasing the money supply before the pandemic because of the slowing economy. Then they increased the money supply by 50% during the pandemic. The Federal Reserve poored a ton of gas on the economy and it will take a long time to burn it off. They need to increase interest rates until housing prices actually start to fall and reduce the money supply by several trillion dollars. Nothing is out of the Feds control.

When does a country get into a deflation?

the hottest analyst out there. intellectually and visually.

when the deficits were $200 billion in the 1980's we were told "the economy is on a sugar high". the claim was that growth was only occurring due to the "huge" deficits. now that the deficit will likely be $2 trillion this year and government spending is part of the GDP, how much of the economic growth is due to this "sugar high."

The graph looks scary and the situation (conflict in Middle East) is similar also

“ The fed has zero control over auto*home insurance, food, energy” really? Would home/auto insurance have went up if asset prices (including home/vehicle prices) didn’t go up? Would they have went up if prices of materials and labor have not went up. The fed policy affects inflation in all areas. The only reason prices of discretionary items haven’t went up as much is because like you said the consumer is stretched thin paying for necessities.

You’ve been saying that Paul wanted to have a legacy like Volker. And you’ve been 100% correct since the beginning

What jobs? Part time barely able to live on wage jobs? Where you still need three of them to get what you use to get pre pandemic? Gotcha.

"The Road to Serfdom" . . ."You will own nothing and be happy " WEF

Very clear and concise. Thanks much.

If oil prices continue to go higher so will inflation.

Love Danielle!!

I always enjoy your clear and concise explanation of the economy Danielle. Thank you

I want to know what she thinks about Americans losing their 401k in 2024.

If you had started the graph at 1965 you would have captured the impact on inflation due to the Vietnam war.

Huge difference between consumer price index versus consumer price inflation. It’s hard to navigate an economy with screwed up data or manipulated data.

Fly strip inflation. It's a sticky situation.

Its no error on the FED's part it is intentional

Your breakdown of the mechanics of the lag effect and inflation is as close to perfect as you can get. Thanks for what you do.

The Fed isn’t fighting inflation, it’s raising interest rates to make US bonds attractive at these higher rates.

She is awesome!!!!!!👏

I lived threw the 80s. People hang on to your ass

Thanks for the look inside 😎

Great discussion

The chart in the beginning showing inflation in the 70's and today was VERY TELLING ! WOW !

Spend like you're poor - don't borrow a dime -- save every penny. Weather the storm.

Pretty unsettling news, but the leopard print is nice.

These years of low interest rates is why homes prices are now out of range for most young buyers. They will never own a home, it seems.

People or as business coins it, “consumers” are financially broke. More inflation will trigger items sitting on the shelf and a series of layoffs. The recession to follow will stay strong until prices deflate. Deflation will start a depression until the market resets.

Intelligent, well spoken and beautiful as always ❤️ DDB

Exactly. Our inflation is fiscal, not monetary (although exacerbated by anti-growth anti-productivity legislation, e.g energy production).

Why even talk about any semblance of American family prosperity with millions of invaders crossing through open borders into this country? You just can't be serious. 🙄

Danielle seems exactly the kinda woman who loves leopard prints.

Great video as always. Do you still think the recession will be back-dated to last October?

there should be a max on how old you can be to run for president no older than 70

I promised myself I wouldn’t comment! Smart, gorgeous, and articulate! I believe that’s called a trifecta!

AGAIN+AGAIN= ONLY SAFE HAVEN ASSET IS PHYSICAL GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Supply side shocks did not cause inflation, inflation (money printing) caused supply side shocks. The graph of the 70s inflation is eerily reminiscent to today, inflation is not going to be eliminated, it is smoldering, because we have not raised the interest high enough to cause dollar destruction and bring inflation back down, too much money sloshing around the system. If Jay Powell cuts interest rates this year and he knows he needs to in order to keep from bank failures, corporations with large debt, commercial and residential real estate from taking a major hit. If he does cut, He will be the new Arthur Burns 2.0. Either way, the feds goose is cooked, but remember it was the fed who printed the money and caused this mess and enabled the federal government to continue to expand when they should’ve been slashing the budget.

HAhahhahaahahahahahHa lady- are you high?

Is TRU inflation measured the same way as in the 1980's?

The likelihood of a cut will keep going down. The fed paused to soon.

So average everday Americans are like the government. Higher borrowed debt that they can't payback at even the minimum amount.

2% by next Presidential Administration. But employees sure could use some Business Leadership & Customer Service. With all the AI knowing about people and $10 minimum wage? California now has $20 minimum wage. Or for local fast food places, didn't read the article yet. Understanding the Macro is very serious.

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

Idk I'm sure if the fed raised to 100% gas prices might be affected

It's too stiggy

Get rid of Federal Reserve. Let market set interest rates.

I’m very scared because no one is hiring or giving raises and it’s getting harder to exist. Do we all go homeless? Off ourselves?

So much for transitory, Yellen.

they need to raise intrest rates by at least 100 points. Powell needs to keep raising rates until goverment quits overspending and banlances the budget

Danielle, pls insert the income line into that first graph that tracks CPI. I think it will tell the story. BTW, your hair is beautiful. :)

Danielle constantly delivers some of the best takes on the current state of economic affairs bar none. If only there were more of her caliber where it counts most!

The banking crisis "contagion" is government bonds. The banks are coerced and forced to buy government bonds with customer deposits. As rates increase, the present value of those bonds is less than what the bank paid with customers' funds. This *bank run* will destroy the economy with a *Greater Depression* lasting for 10+ years.

These current interest rates are still historically very low. The idea 5% is high isn't a thing until the GFC. Since then, interest rates have remained far too low creating a dependence on them. The only way to break that is a period of pain and withdrawal symptoms. But after that we could see a more healthy economy again. Avoiding this only makes it worse in the long run.

We're defining what is money once again. “The most hated sort, and with the greatest reason, is usury, which makes a gain out of money itself, and not from the natural object of it. For money was intended to be used in exchange, but not to increase at interest. And this term interest, which means the birth of money from money, is applied to the breeding of money because the offspring resembles the parent. Wherefore of all modes of getting wealth this is the most unnatural.” ― Aristotle, Politics

Fed printing of the US dollar to raise the level of economic activity may also be out of the question if inflation is till sticky at that 3+% level. The Fed may be forced to make a choice between higher unemployment and lower inflation or choose lower unemployment at the expense of inflation !! The poisoned chalice is there and Powell may be forced to take a few sips !!

I like Danielle

3,5 inflation anyone that still belives that 😂😂😂😂😂 it is atleast double digits.

Powell is following in Volker’s foot steps if the charts are true

Is there anyone calculating inflation as they did back in the 80's...for interest sake. No pun intended.

Love the hair ❤

Well… when a government spends trillions…

Ol' Joe's Ecokomeee

When you add 8 million more consumers to your economy, effectively a 51st state-shelter, food, transportation and energy CANNOT go down…along with money printer go brrrrrr with the treasury spending $1T every 100 days…we are reaching terminal velocity.

Low inflation during a wave of joblessness, is bad for Americans, how?

360p resolution???

In March of 2023 the Government printed 10 trillion dollars alone! All that money won't allow increasing rates to do its job. As for the great jobs report. A lot of my friends kids ( 18 to 25 yr old) have 2 to 3 gig jobs. I know ladies who just graduated from University who have a starter role and are on OnlyFans, to pay the rent!

INFLATION INFLATION INFLATION

Perhaps the target is no longer viable?